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Bibliography on: Climate Change

The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project: Providing world-wide, free access to classic scientific papers and other scholarly materials, since 1993.


ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 23 Nov 2020 at 01:47 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)


RevDate: 2020-11-22

Snowdon RJ, Wittkop B, Chen TW, et al (2020)

Crop adaptation to climate change as a consequence of long-term breeding.

TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik pii:10.1007/s00122-020-03729-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Major global crops in high-yielding, temperate cropping regions are facing increasing threats from the impact of climate change, particularly from drought and heat at critical developmental timepoints during the crop lifecycle. Research to address this concern is frequently focused on attempts to identify exotic genetic diversity showing pronounced stress tolerance or avoidance, to elucidate and introgress the responsible genetic factors or to discover underlying genes as a basis for targeted genetic modification. Although such approaches are occasionally successful in imparting a positive effect on performance in specific stress environments, for example through modulation of root depth, major-gene modifications of plant architecture or function tend to be highly context-dependent. In contrast, long-term genetic gain through conventional breeding has incrementally increased yields of modern crops through accumulation of beneficial, small-effect variants which also confer yield stability via stress adaptation. Here we reflect on retrospective breeding progress in major crops and the impact of long-term, conventional breeding on climate adaptation and yield stability under abiotic stress constraints. Looking forward, we outline how new approaches might complement conventional breeding to maintain and accelerate breeding progress, despite the challenges of climate change, as a prerequisite to sustainable future crop productivity.

RevDate: 2020-11-21

Ali MF, S Rose (2020)

Farmers' perception and adaptations to climate change: findings from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-11472-x [Epub ahead of print].

The main objective of this study was to capture farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change in agriculture sector. Along with this, it also identified farmers' adaptations to perceived climate change. Binary logit models were applied on data of 386 farmers, collected from three different agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, to present a comprehensive analysis of different adaptation strategies missing in the existing literature. The coefficients of a binary logit model only explain the direction of change; therefore, to see the magnitude of change, marginal effects were also estimated. Findings revealed that farmers perceived climate change and opted different adaptation strategies. Results of binary logit models described age, education, farming experience, landholding, access to climate information, access to credit facilities, and access to extension services as important determinants of adaptation. This research also found lack of access to climate information, lack of irrigation resources, and knowledge about appropriate adaptations as key constraints in adaptation process. This situation can be improved by enhancing institutional support and capacity. It is suggested that improved agricultural education with better access to climate information and extension services affects the farmers' well-being directly and hence is good for the economy of Pakistan.

RevDate: 2020-11-21

Marchowski D, Ławicki Ł, Fox AD, et al (2020)

Effectiveness of the European Natura 2000 network to sustain a specialist wintering waterbird population in the face of climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):20286 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-77153-4.

Analysis of coordinated Greater Scaup (Aythya marila) count data from the last 30 years showed a 38.1% decrease in wintering numbers in North-West Europe, from 309,000 during 1988-1991 to c.192,300 individuals during 2015-2018. Annual trends in wintering numbers differed throughout the range. Numbers decreased in the UK, Ireland, and in the Netherlands, while numbers were stable in Denmark. Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Estonia showed increasing numbers, suggesting a shift in the distribution of the species within its wintering grounds towards the east and north. Higher temperatures in northern and eastern areas were correlated with the range shift of the wintering distribution. Deaths from bycatch drowning of Scaup in fishing gear have significantly decreased in recent decades in the Netherlands, where currently the greatest threat is considered the deterioration of food resources. The increasing concentration of wintering Scaup in coastal Poland and Germany (where lack of effective implementation of conservation measures fail to protect the species from the impacts of bycatch and declining food quality) pose major threats to the entire population.

RevDate: 2020-11-21

Palinkas LA, O'Donnell ML, Lau W, et al (2020)

Strategies for Delivering Mental Health Services in Response to Global Climate Change: A Narrative Review.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(22): pii:ijerph17228562.

This narrative review examined strategies for preparedness and response to mental health impacts of three forms of climate change from a services perspective: (1) acute and extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, (2) sub-acute or long-term events such as droughts and heatwaves; and (3) the prospect of long-term and permanent changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels, and an uninhabitable physical environment. Strategies for acute events included development and implementation of programs and practices for monitoring and treating mental health problems and strengthening individual and community resilience, training of community health workers to deliver services, and conducting inventories of available resources and assessments of at-risk populations. Additional strategies for sub-acute changes included advocacy for mitigation policies and programs and adaptation of guidelines and interventions to address the secondary impacts of sub-acute events, such as threats to livelihood, health and well-being, population displacement, environmental degradation, and civil conflict. Strategies for long-lasting changes included the implementation of evidence-based risk communication interventions that address the existing and potential threat of climate change, promoting the mental health benefits of environmental conservation, and promoting psychological growth and resilience.

RevDate: 2020-11-20

Wright RJ (2020)

Influences of climate change on childhood asthma and allergy risk.

The Lancet. Child & adolescent health, 4(12):859-860.

RevDate: 2020-11-20

Ha TTV, Fan H, L Shuang (2020)

Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China's grain production.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-11602-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.

RevDate: 2020-11-20

Ewbank C, Stewart B, Bruns B, et al (2020)

Introduction of the Surgical Providers Assessment and Response to Climate Change (SPARC2) Tool: One Small Step Toward Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Surgical Care.

Annals of surgery [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-11-20

Ahmed T, Zounemat-Kermani M, M Scholz (2020)

Climate Change, Water Quality and Water-Related Challenges: A Review with Focus on Pakistan.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(22): pii:ijerph17228518.

Climate variability is heavily impacting human health all around the globe, in particular, on residents of developing countries. Impacts on surface water and groundwater resources and water-related illnesses are increasing, especially under changing climate scenarios such as diversity in rainfall patterns, increasing temperature, flash floods, severe droughts, heatwaves and heavy precipitation. Emerging water-related diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya are reappearing and impacting on the life of the deprived; as such, the provision of safe water and health care is in great demand in developing countries to combat the spread of infectious diseases. Government, academia and private water bodies are conducting water quality surveys and providing health care facilities, but there is still a need to improve the present strategies concerning water treatment and management, as well as governance. In this review paper, climate change pattern and risks associated with water-related diseases in developing countries, with particular focus on Pakistan, and novel methods for controlling both waterborne and water-related diseases are discussed. This study is important for public health care, particularly in developing countries, for policy makers, and researchers working in the area of climate change, water quality and risk assessment.

RevDate: 2020-11-19

Ankrah Twumasi M, Y Jiang (2020)

The impact of climate change coping and adaptation strategies on livestock farmers' technical efficiency: the case of rural Ghana.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-11525-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Compared with developed nations, developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change and variability. In this study, a coping and adaptation strategies (CCCAs) index, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and fractional regression model (FRM) are used to explore the impact of farmers' CCCAs on technical efficiency (TE) among goat farmers in Ghana. Using survey data collected from goat farmers in the northern part of Ghana, the results reveal the following: first, most of the farmers were inefficient in their production. Thus, out of the 124 goat farmers, only 13 (10.5%), 3 (2.4%), and 4 (3.2%) were efficient under variable return to scale (VRS), constant returns to scale (CRS), and scale efficiency (SE), respectively. Second, regarding a quantitative relationship, CCCAs can help increase farmer' efficiency. Again CCCAs impact on female farmers' TE was profound than their counterparts. Finally, CCCAs have heterogeneous impacts on goat farmers in different groups. Our findings provide policy implications to improve CCCAs and enhance the goat farmers' TE.

RevDate: 2020-11-19

Zhang VM, Punzalan D, L Rowe (2020)

Climate change has different predicted effects on the range shifts of two hybridizing ambush bug (Phymata, Family Reduviidae, Order Hemiptera) species.

Ecology and evolution, 10(21):12036-12048 pii:ECE36820.

Aim: A universal attribute of species is that their distributions are limited by numerous factors that may be difficult to quantify. Furthermore, climate change-induced range shifts have been reported in many taxa, and understanding the implications of these shifts remains a priority and a challenge. Here, we use Maxent to predict current suitable habitat and to project future distributions of two closely related, parapatrically distributed Phymata species in light of anthropogenic climate change.

Location: North America.

Taxon: Phymata americana Melin 1930 and Phymata pennsylvanica Handlirsch 1897, Family: Reduviidae, Order: Hemiptera.

Methods: We used the maximum entropy modeling software Maxent to identify environmental variables maintaining the distribution of two Phymata species, Phymata americana and Phymata pennsylvanica. Species occurrence data were collected from museum databases, and environmental data were collected from WorldClim. Once we gathered distribution maps for both species, we created binary suitability maps of current distributions. To predict future distributions in 2050 and 2070, the same environmental variables were used, this time under four different representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; as well, binary suitability maps of future distributions were also created. To visualize potential future hybridization, the degree of overlap between the two Phymata species was calculated.

Results: The strongest predictor to P. americana ranges was the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, while precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were strong predictors of P. pennsylvanica ranges. Future ranges for P. americana are predicted to increase northwestward at higher CO2 concentrations. Suitable ranges for P. pennsylvanica are predicted to decrease with slight fluctuations around range edges. There is an increase in overlapping ranges of the two species in all future predictions.

Main conclusions: These evidences for different environmental requirements for P. americana and P. pennsylvanica account for their distinct ranges. Because these species are ecologically similar and can hybridize, climate change has potentially important eco-evolutionary ramifications. Overall, our results are consistent with effects of climate change that are highly variable across species, geographic regions, and over time.

RevDate: 2020-11-19

Xu X, Xia Z, Liu Y, et al (2021)

Interactions between methanotrophs and ammonia oxidizers modulate the response of in situ methane emissions to simulated climate change and its legacy in an acidic soil.

The Science of the total environment, 752:142225.

Methane (CH4) is one of the most important greenhouse gases which can be formed by methanogens and oxidized by methanotrophs, as well as ammonia oxidizers. Agricultural soils can be both a source and sink for atmospheric CH4. However, it is unclear how climate change, will affect CH4 emissions and the underlying functional guilds. In this field study, we determined the impact of simulated climate change (a warmer and drier condition) and its legacy effect on CH4 emissions and the methanogenic and methanotrophic communities, as well as their relationships with ammonia oxidizers in an acidic soil with urea application. The climate change conditions were simulated in a greenhouse, and the legacy effect was simulated by removing the greenhouse after twelve months. Simulated climate change significantly decreased the in situ CH4 emissions in the urea-treated soils while the legacy effect significantly decreased the in situ CH4 emissions in the control plots, but had very little effect in the urea-treated soils. This indicates that the impact of simulated climate change and its legacy on CH4 emissions was significantly modified by nitrogen fertilization. Methanotrophs were more sensitive than methanogens in response to simulated climate change and its legacy effect, especially in the urea treated soil. Significant negative correlations were observed between the abundances of ammonia oxidizers and methanotrophs. Additionally, results of partial least path modeling (PLS-PM) indicated that the interactions of methanogens and methanotrophs with ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA) had significant positive relationships with in situ CH4 emissions under the simulated climate change condition. Our work highlights the important role of AOA for CH4 emissions under climate change conditions. Further research is needed to better understand this effect in other ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-11-19
CmpDate: 2020-11-19

Xu X, Li F, Lin Z, et al (2021)

Holocene fire history in China: Responses to climate change and human activities.

The Science of the total environment, 753:142019.

Fire is an intrinsic feature of terrestrial ecosystems as well as a key Earth system process that significantly influences ecosystem patterns, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although local and regional paleofires across China have been investigated, the history of these phenomena at the national scale as well as possible drivers remain unknown. This study investigated spatiotemporal patterns in fire activity across China based on 107 individual site charcoal records. The aim of this work was to discuss the possible impact of climate and human activities on fire in China. Results showed that fire activities across China declined gradually overall between the early Holocene (12 ka BP) and the middle Holocene (7.3 ka BP) but then sharply increased in occurrence after 7.3 ka BP. Data showed that although regional fire activities did not vary synchronously, more events tended to occur in the late Holocene and there were relative less in the early-to-middle Holocene. These changes in Holocene fire activity closely mirrored millennial scale moisture variations across China. Intensified human activities over the last 3 ka might also be responsible for a sharp increase in fire activity. Variable trends in fire activities within regions might also be attributed to large-scale climatic controls modulated by local factors, which determined burn likelihood. This study enhances our insights into the fire history of China and may help to provide improved future projections for such phenomena given current climate change.

RevDate: 2020-11-18

Li W, Ruiz-Menjivar J, Zhang L, et al (2020)

Climate change perceptions and the adoption of low-carbon agricultural technologies: Evidence from rice production systems in the Yangtze River Basin.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)37085-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Using a sample of 1115 rice farmers, we explored climate change perceptions, adoption of agricultural low-carbon technologies (LCTs), and the determinants influencing rice farmers' climate change adaptation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), central China. We built a theoretical framework based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and performed both binary and count estimations to explore the determinants affecting farmers' adoption of LCTs. Our results indicated that most rice farmers strongly agreed they observed shifting local weather conditions (52.74% of respondents) and irregular rainfall patterns (52.56%) within the last year. Further, over two-thirds of the respondents perceived that agricultural production contributes to climate variability (26.73% strongly agreed, and 40.54% agreed with that statement). In terms of the adoption intensity of LCTs, we found that about 96% of rice farmers implemented at least one low-carbon technology. Importantly, farmers' perceptions of climate change were positively associated with climate change adaptation. Other significant predictors of climate change adaptation included gender, years of experience, access to agricultural training through extension services, exchange of technical information among farmers, and access to mobile networks and postal services. We underlined policy recommendations that may accelerate climate change adaptation in rice production and complement current agricultural low-carbon programs in China.

RevDate: 2020-11-18

Pol D, Ramezani J, Gomez K, et al (2020)

Extinction of herbivorous dinosaurs linked to Early Jurassic global warming event.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 287(1939):20202310.

Sauropods, the giant long-necked dinosaurs, became the dominant group of large herbivores in terrestrial ecosystems after multiple related lineages became extinct towards the end of the Early Jurassic (190-174 Ma). The causes and precise timing of this key faunal change, as well as the origin of eusauropods (true sauropods), have remained ambiguous mainly due to the scarce dinosaurian fossil record of this time. The terrestrial sedimentary successions of the Cañadón Asfalto Basin in central Patagonia (Argentina) document this critical interval of dinosaur evolution. Here, we report a new dinosaur with a nearly complete skull that is the oldest eusauropod known to date and provide high-precision U-Pb geochronology that constrains in time the rise of eusauropods in Patagonia. We show that eusauropod dominance was established after a massive magmatic event impacting southern Gondwana (180-184 Ma) and coincided with severe perturbations to the climate and a drastic decrease in the floral diversity characterized by the rise of conifers with small scaly leaves. Floral and faunal records from other regions suggest these were global changes that impacted the terrestrial ecosystems during the Toarcian warming event and formed part of a second-order mass extinction event.

RevDate: 2020-11-18

Orlov D, Menshakova M, Thierfelder T, et al (2020)

Healthy Ecosystems Are a Prerequisite for Human Health-A Call for Action in the Era of Climate Change with a Focus on Russia.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(22): pii:ijerph17228453.

Throughout history, humans have experienced epidemics. The balance of living in nature encircled by microorganisms is delicate. More than 70% of today's emerging infections are zoonotic, i.e., those in which microorganisms transmitted from animals infect humans. Species are on the move at speeds never previously recorded, among ongoing climate change which is especially rapid at high latitudes. This calls for intensified international surveillance of Northern infectious diseases. Russia holds the largest area of thawing permafrost among Northern nations, a process which threatens to rapidly disrupt the balance of nature. In this paper, we provide details regarding Russian health infrastructure in order to take the first steps toward a collaborative international survey of Northern infections and international harmonization of the procured data.

RevDate: 2020-11-17

Dagtekin D, Şahan EA, Denk T, et al (2020)

Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections.

PloS one, 15(11):e0242280 pii:PONE-D-20-17572.

Species distribution models can help predicting range shifts under climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the late Quaternary distribution of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) and to project future distribution ranges under different climate change scenarios using a combined palaeobotanical, phylogeographic, and modelling approach. Five species distribution modelling algorithms under the R-package `biomod2`were applied to occurrence data of Fagus orientalis to predict distributions under present, past (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 ka, Mid-Holocene, 6 ka), and future climatic conditions with different scenarios obtained from MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 global climate models. Distribution models were compared to palaeobotanical and phylogeographic evidence. Pollen data indicate northern Turkey and the western Caucasus as refugia for Oriental beech during the Last Glacial Maximum. Although pollen records are missing, molecular data point to Last Glacial Maximum refugia in northern Iran. For the mid-Holocene, pollen data support the presence of beech in the study region. Species distribution models predicted present and Last Glacial Maximum distribution of Fagus orientalis moderately well yet underestimated mid-Holocene ranges. Future projections under various climate scenarios indicate northern Iran and the Caucasus region as major refugia for Oriental beech. Combining palaeobotanical, phylogeographic and modelling approaches is useful when making projections about distributions of plants. Palaeobotanical and molecular evidence reject some of the model projections. Nevertheless, the projected range reduction in the Caucasus region and northern Iran highlights their importance as long-term refugia, possibly related to higher humidity, stronger environmental and climatic heterogeneity and strong vertical zonation of the forest vegetation.

RevDate: 2020-11-17

Cai W, Ng B, Geng T, et al (2020)

Publisher Correction: Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-11-17

Dorn A, H Puchta (2020)

DNA repair meets climate change.

Nature plants pii:10.1038/s41477-020-00804-x [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Bevacqua E, Vousdoukas MI, Zappa G, et al (2020)

More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change.

Communications earth & environment, 1(1):47.

Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme meteorological tides (that is the superposition of storm surge and waves) and precipitation. This flooding can severely affect densely populated low-lying coastal areas. Here, combining output from climate and ocean models, we analyse the concurrence probability of the meteorological conditions driving compound flooding. We show that, under a high emissions scenario, the concurrence probability would increase globally by more than 25% by 2100 compared to present. In latitudes above 40o north, compound flooding could become more than 2.5 times as frequent, in contrast to parts of the subtropics where it would weaken. Changes in extreme precipitation and meteorological tides account for most (77% and 20%, respectively) of the projected change in concurrence probability. The evolution of the dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide dominates the uncertainty in the projections. Our results indicate that not accounting for these effects in adaptation planning could leave coastal communities insufficiently protected against flooding.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Kephe PN, Ayisi KK, BM Petja (2020)

A decision support system for institutional support to farmers in the face of climate change challenges in Limpopo province.

Heliyon, 6(11):e04989 pii:S2405-8440(20)31832-6.

Smallholder farmers in South Africa continue to be affected by the changing climate despite the existence of support to improve their adaptive capacity. This study focused on the institutional support systems and support types available to farmers in agro-ecological zones of Limpopo Province and assessed support types best suited to each area. Six hundred farmers were purposively sampled across the agro-ecological zones of Limpopo and interviewed. Support types looked at included monetary, machinery, seeds, educational support and others (irrigation scheme, animals, fertilizer, pesticides). Supporting institutions included Agro finance institutions, DAFF, Banks, and NGOs. Results showed that 70.01% of farmers received support from DAFF 25.60% from NGO's and 4.39% from Agro finance institutions. The most number of support received was two types 33.3% of the farmers. The result from the ANOVA showed that there were no significant differences in the level of difficulty experienced by farmers in accessing the various support institutions across the agro-ecological zones. In terms of the various support types received, there was a statistically significant difference in seeds (p = 0.002 < α = 0.05) and educational (p = 0.0001 < α = 0.05) support received between the different areas. Furthermore, the support needs varied across zones with farmers in arid-zone needing machinery, education, seeds and lastly monetary support while the semi-arid zone needed machinery, education, others, seeds, monetary and the humid, machinery, education, others, money and seeds. It is therefore recommended that support for farmers should be location-specific in order to enhance the adaptive capacity of an area and not be based only on the availability of certain support. There is a need for proper coordination between institutions in their aim to assist farmers to cope with climate change.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Asayama S, Emori S, Sugiyama M, et al (2020)

Are we ignoring a black elephant in the Anthropocene? Climate change and global pandemic as the crisis in health and equality.

Sustainability science pii:879 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and coronavirus pandemic are the twin crises in the Anthropocene, the era in which unsustainable growth of human activities has led to a significant change in the global environment. The two crises have also exposed a chronic social illness of our time-a deep, widespread inequality in society. Whilst the circumstances are unfortunate, the pandemic can provide an opportunity for sustainability scientists to focus more on human society and its inequalities, rather than a sole focus on the natural environment. It opens the way for a new normative commitment of science in a time of crises. We suggest three agendas for future climate and sustainability research after the pandemic: (1) focus on health and well-being, (2) moral engagement through empathy, and (3) science of loss for managing grief.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Logan ML, CL Cox (2020)

Genetic Constraints, Transcriptome Plasticity, and the Evolutionary Response to Climate Change.

Frontiers in genetics, 11:538226.

In situ adaptation to climate change will be critical for the persistence of many ectotherm species due to their relative lack of dispersal capacity. Climate change is causing increases in both the mean and the variance of environmental temperature, each of which may act as agents of selection on different traits. Importantly, these traits may not be heritable or have the capacity to evolve independently from one another. When genetic constraints prevent the "baseline" values of thermal performance traits from evolving rapidly, phenotypic plasticity driven by gene expression might become critical. We review the literature for evidence that thermal performance traits in ectotherms are heritable and have genetic architectures that permit their unconstrained evolution. Next, we examine the relationship between gene expression and both the magnitude and duration of thermal stress. Finally, we identify genes that are likely to be important for adaptation to a changing climate and determine whether they show patterns consistent with thermal adaptation. Although few studies have measured narrow-sense heritabilities of thermal performance traits, current evidence suggests that the end points of thermal reaction norms (tolerance limits) are moderately heritable and have the potential to evolve rapidly. By contrast, performance at intermediate temperatures has substantially lower evolutionary potential. Moreover, evolution in many species appears to be constrained by genetic correlations such that populations can adapt to either increases in mean temperature or temperature variability, but not both. Finally, many species have the capacity for plastic expression of the transcriptome in response to temperature shifts, with the number of differentially expressed genes increasing with the magnitude, but not the duration, of thermal stress. We use these observations to develop a conceptual model that describes the likely trajectory of genome evolution in response to changes in environmental temperature. Our results indicate that extreme weather events, rather than gradual increases in mean temperature, are more likely to drive genetic and phenotypic change in wild ectotherms.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Cabrera J, González PM, S Puntarulo (2020)

The Phycotoxin Domoic Acid as a Potential Factor for Oxidative Alterations Enhanced by Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:576971.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Bostrom A, Böhm G, Hayes AL, et al (2020)

Credible Threat: Perceptions of Pandemic Coronavirus, Climate Change and the Morality and Management of Global Risks.

Frontiers in psychology, 11:578562.

Prior research suggests that the pandemic coronavirus pushes all the "hot spots" for risk perceptions, yet both governments and populations have varied in their responses. As the economic impacts of the pandemic have become salient, governments have begun to slash their budgets for mitigating other global risks, including climate change, likely imposing increased future costs from those risks. Risk analysts have long argued that global environmental and health risks are inseparable at some level, and must ultimately be managed systemically, to effectively increase safety and welfare. In contrast, it has been suggested that we have worry budgets, in which one risk crowds out another. "In the wild," our problem-solving strategies are often lexicographic; we seek and assess potential solutions one at a time, even one attribute at a time, rather than conducting integrated risk assessments. In a U.S. national survey experiment in which participants were randomly assigned to coronavirus or climate change surveys (N = 3203) we assess risk perceptions, and whether risk perception "hot spots" are driving policy preferences, within and across these global risks. Striking parallels emerge between the two. Both risks are perceived as highly threatening, inequitably distributed, and not particularly controllable. People see themselves as somewhat informed about both risks and have moral concerns about both. In contrast, climate change is seen as better understood by science than is pandemic coronavirus. Further, individuals think they can contribute more to slowing or stopping pandemic coronavirus than climate change, and have a greater moral responsibility to do so. Survey assignment influences policy preferences, with higher support for policies to control pandemic coronavirus in pandemic coronavirus surveys, and higher support for policies to control climate change risks in climate change surveys. Across all surveys, age groups, and policies to control either climate change or pandemic coronavirus risks, support is highest for funding research on vaccines against pandemic diseases, which is the only policy that achieves majority support in both surveys. Findings bolster both the finite worry budget hypothesis and the hypothesis that supporters of policies to confront one threat are disproportionately likely also to support policies to confront the other threat.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Schattman RE, Niles MT, HM Aitken (2020)

Water use governance in a temperate region: Implications for agricultural climate change adaptation in the Northeastern United States.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-020-01417-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and access to water are interrelated concerns for agriculture and other sectors, even in temperate regions. Governance approaches and regulatory frameworks determine who has access to water, for what purpose, and when. In the northeastern United States, water governance has historically been conducted by states through a combination of statutory guidance and common law. However, it is unclear what effect if current governance approaches will be sufficient for achieving resource conservation and equitable allocation in a changing climate. To provide insight into these issues, we conducted the first review of freshwater governance in the 12 states that comprise the U.S. Northeast. Specifically, we examine their heterogeneous approaches to surface and groundwater use, permitting and reporting, and scarcity provisions. Using agriculture as the sector of focus, we show through narrative review and quantitative analysis that change in the proportion of cropland that is irrigated in each state does not differ based on governance approach. We also suggest that future decades may bring regulatory shifts relevant to agriculture, changes in enforcement, increased competition between agriculture and other users, and greater potential competition between states for water resources. This case study raises the question: how should we prepare for the time when competition for, or degradation of, a resource surpasses the ability of existing governance mechanisms to ensure conservation and equitable distribution?

RevDate: 2020-11-15

Galvao P, Sus B, Lailson-Brito J, et al (2020)

An upwelling area as a hot spot for mercury biomonitoring in a climate change scenario: A case study with large demersal fishes from Southeast Atlantic (SE-Brazil).

Chemosphere pii:S0045-6535(20)32916-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Data concerning the monomethylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in marine biota from Southeast Atlantic Ocean are scarce. This study purchased large specimens of demersal fishes from an upwelling region: Warsaw grouper (Epinephelus nigritus), Dusky grouper (Epinephelus marginatus) and Namorado sandperch (Pseudopercis numida). The authors addressed the bioaccumulation and toxicokinetic of mercury in fish organs, and the toxicological risk for human consumption of this metal in the muscle tissues accessed. Additionally, the present study discussed the possible implications of shifts in key variables of the environment related to a climate-changing predicted scenario, to the mercury biomagnification in a tropical upwelling system. The muscle was the main stock of MeHg, although the highest THg concentrations have been found in liver tissue. Regarding the acceptable maximum level (ML = 1 mg kg-1), E. nigritus and E. marginatus showed 22% of the samples above this limit. Concerning P. numida, 77% were above 0.5 mg kg-1, but below the ML. The %MeHg in liver and muscle showed no significative correlations, which suggest independent biochemical pathways to the toxicokinetic of MeHg, and constrains the indirect assessment of the mercury contamination in the edible tissue by the liver analyses. The present study highlights the food web features of a tropical upwelling ecosystem that promote mercury biomagnification. Additionally, recent studies endorse the enhancement of upwelling phenomenon due to the climate global changes which boost the pumping of mercury enriched water to the oceanic upper layer. Therefore, the upwelling areas might be hot spots for MeHg monitoring in marine biota.

RevDate: 2020-11-16

Alexander M, Alexander J, Arora M, et al (2019)

A bellweather for climate change and disability: educational needs of rehabilitation professionals regarding disaster management and spinal cord injuries.

Spinal cord series and cases, 5(1):94 pii:10.1038/s41394-019-0239-z.

STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: Persons with disabilities are disproportionately impacted by extreme weather disasters and climate change. Individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) are especially at risk due to inability to control their body temperature and mobility concerns. We surveyed rehabilitation professionals in the field of SCI to determine their experiences, concerns and educational needs regarding natural disasters, climate change and sustainability and the effects on their clientele.

SETTING: Online survey available to an international cohort.

METHODS: The survey was developed by the authors and conducted in 2019. It was distributed amongst various international health care organizations whose members care for persons with SCI. Descriptive statistics and chi-square test for association were performed using Microsoft Excel 2016.

RESULTS: Of 125 respondents, 50% were from Europe, 18% from North America, and 18% from Asia; 74% were physicians and 13% physical therapists. In total 57.6% believed climate change had impacted their client's health and well-being. Respondents from North America were significantly less likely to report climate change had an impact on their patient's health than those from Asia or Europe (p < 0.01). In total 82.5% of respondents thought professionals should be concerned with sustainability and 85.5% were interested in further education.

CONCLUSIONS: Most respondents acknowledged a need for more information related to the disasters, climate change, and disability. Results underscore the need for further research, professional, and consumer education.

RevDate: 2020-11-13

Wang F, Wang D, Guo G, et al (2020)

Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management.

Journal of economic entomology pii:5980253 [Epub ahead of print].

Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis's potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

RevDate: 2020-11-14

Eriksen C, Simon GL, Roth F, et al (2020)

Rethinking the interplay between affluence and vulnerability to aid climate change adaptive capacity.

Climatic change, 162(1):25-39.

Affluence and vulnerability are often seen as opposite sides of a coin-with affluence generally understood as reducing forms of vulnerability through increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, in the context of climate change and an increase in associated hazards and disasters, we suggest the need to re-examine this dynamic relationship-a complex association we define here as the Affluence-Vulnerability Interface (AVI). We review research in different national contexts to show how a more nuanced understanding of the AVI can (a) problematize the notion that increasing material affluence necessarily has a mitigating influence on social vulnerability, (b) extend our analysis of social vulnerability beyond low-income regions to include affluent contexts and (c) improve our understanding of how psychosocial characteristics influence people's vulnerability. Finally, we briefly outline three methodological approaches that we believe will assist future engagement with the AVI.

RevDate: 2020-11-16
CmpDate: 2020-11-16

Bhuiyan KA, Rodríguez BM, Pires A, et al (2021)

Experimental evidence of uncertain future of the keystone ragworm Hediste diversicolor (O.F. Müller, 1776) under climate change conditions.

The Science of the total environment, 750:142031.

It is currently assumed that climate change related factors pose severe challenges to biodiversity maintenance. This paper assesses the multi-stressor effects of elevated temperature (15 °C as control, 25 °C as elevated) and CO2 levels (pH 8.1 as control, 7.5 and 7.0 representing acidifying conditions) on the physiological (survival and regenerative capacity), behavioral (feeding and burrowing activities), and biochemical changes (metabolic capacity, oxidative status and biotransformation mechanisms) experienced by the keystone polychaete Hediste diversicolor. Temperature rise enlarged the adverse effect of marine acidification on the survival of H. diversicolor, delayed the beginning of the excavation activity, enhancing the negative effects that pH decrease had in the burrowing behavior of this polychaete. Additionally, regardless of the temperature, exposure of H. diversicolor to acidification results in a reduction in the feeding rate. It is the first time that this decreased feeding capacity is found related to seawater acidification in this species. The healing of the wound and the blastemal formation were retarded due to these two climatic factors which hinder the regenerative process of polychaetes. These vital physiological functions of H. diversicolor can be related to the oxidative stress induced by climate change conditions since free radicals overproduced will impair cells functioning, affecting species biochemical and physiological performance, including feeding and tissue regeneration. The present results also demonstrated that although polychaetes' metabolic capacity was enhanced under stress conditions, organisms were still able to increase or maintain their energy reserves. Our findings are of major environmental relevance considering that predicted climate change conditions will affect species vital and ecological and physiological capacities. These can be translated into shrinking not only at the individual and population level but also in microbial and endofaunal diversities, in the detritus processing in estuaries and biogeochemical cycles at the ecosystem level. Thus the conservation of H. diversicolor populations is vital for the normal functioning of estuarine mudflat ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-11-13
CmpDate: 2020-11-13

Kim SU, KY Kim (2021)

Impact of climate change on the primary production and related biogeochemical cycles in the coastal and sea ice zone of the Southern Ocean.

The Science of the total environment, 751:141678.

Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere has exerted impact on the primary production in the Southern Ocean (SO). Using a recently released reanalysis dataset on global biogeochemistry, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the complex biogeochemical seasonal cycle and the impact of climate change with a focus in areas within the meridional excursion of the sea ice boundary-coastal and continental shelf zone (CCSZ) and seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ). The seasonal cycles of primary production and related nutrients are closely linked with the seasonal changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures. As sea ice retreats and allows energy and gas exchange across the sea surface, phytoplankton growth is initiated, consuming accumulated nutrients within the shallow depth of ~40 m. The seasonal evolutions of physical, biological and chemical variables show both spatial and temporal consistency with each other. Climate change has altered the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle. While primary production has generally increased along with an intensified uptake of CO2, some areas show a reduction in production (e.g., Prydz Bay, eastern Indian Ocean). In the CCSZ, increased iron utilization and light availability allowed production to be increased. However, the mechanism by which these factors are altered varies from one location to another, including changes in sea ice cover, surface stratification, and downwelling/upwelling. In the SIZ, where iron is generally a limiting factor, iron supply is a key driver of changes in primary production regardless of other nutrients. There is a clear influence of climatic change on the biogeochemical cycle although the signal is still weak.

RevDate: 2020-11-12

Fazal O, PJ Hotez (2020)

NTDs in the age of urbanization, climate change, and conflict: Karachi, Pakistan as a case study.

PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(11):e0008791 pii:PNTD-D-20-00729.

RevDate: 2020-11-12

Levy JI (2020)

Climate Change and Health Justice: New Perspectives on Pressing Challenges.

American journal of public health, 110(12):1718.

RevDate: 2020-11-12

Carrasco L, Papeş M, Lochner EN, et al (2020)

Potential regional declines in species richness of tomato pollinators in North America under climate change.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

About 70% of the world's main crops depend on insect pollination. Climate change is already affecting the abundance and distribution of insects, which could cause geographical mismatches between crops and their pollinators. Crops that rely primarily on wild pollinators (e.g. crops that cannot be effectively pollinated by commercial colonies of honey bees) could be particularly in jeopardy. However, limited information on plant-pollinator associations and pollinator distributions complicate the assessment of climate change impacts on specific crops. To study the potential impacts of climate change on pollination of a specific crop in North America, we use the case of open-field tomato crops, which rely on buzz pollinators (species that use vibration to release pollen, such as bumble bees) to increase their production. We aimed to 1) assess potential changes in buzz pollinator distribution and richness, and 2) evaluate the overlap between areas with high densities of tomato crops and high potential decrease in richness. We used baseline (1961-1990) climate and future (2050s and 2080s) climatic projections in ecological niche models fitted with occurrences of wild bees, documented in the literature as pollinators of tomatoes, to estimate the baseline and future potential distribution of suitable climatic conditions of targeted species and to create maps of richness change across North America. We obtained reliable models for 15 species and found important potential decreases in the distribution of some pollinators (e.g. Lasioglossum pectorale and Augochlorella aurata). We observed geographical discrepancies in the projected change in species richness across North America, detecting important declines in the eastern US (up to 11 species decrease for 2050s). After overlapping the maps of species richness change with a tomato crop map for the US, we found spatial correspondence between richness declines and areas with high concentration of tomato crops. Disparities in the effects of climate change on the potential future distribution of different wild pollinators and geographical variation in richness highlight the importance of crop-specific studies. Our study also emphasizes the challenges of compiling and modeling crop-specific pollinator data and the need to improve our understanding of current distribution of pollinators and their community dynamics under climate change.

RevDate: 2020-11-11

Fitchett JM, DA Swatton (2020)

Exploring public awareness of the current and future malaria risk zones in South Africa under climate change: a pilot study.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-02042-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Although only a small proportion of the landmass of South Africa is classified as high risk for malaria, the country experiences on-going challenges relating to malaria outbreaks. Climate change poses a growing threat to this already dire situation. While considerable effort has been placed in public health campaigns in the highest-risk regions, and national malaria maps are updated to account for changing climate, malaria cases have increased. This pilot study considers the sub-population of South Africans who reside outside of the malaria area, yet have the means to travel into this high-risk region for vacation. Through the lens of the governmental "ABC of malaria prevention", we explore this sub-population's awareness of the current boundaries to the malaria area, perceptions of the future boundary under climate change, and their risk-taking behaviours relating to malaria transmission. Findings reveal that although respondents self-report a high level of awareness regarding malaria, and their boundary maps reveal the broad pattern of risk distribution, their specifics on details are lacking. This includes over-estimating both the current and future boundaries, beyond the realms of climate-topographic possibility. Despite over-estimating the region of malaria risk, the respondents reveal an alarming lack of caution when travelling to malaria areas. Despite being indicated for high-risk malaria areas, the majority of respondents did not use chemoprophylaxis, and many relied on far less-effective measures. This may in part be due to respondents relying on information from friends and family, rather than medical or governmental advice.

RevDate: 2020-11-10

Hess JJ, Ranadive N, Boyer C, et al (2020)

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions.

Environmental health perspectives, 128(11):115001.

BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.

METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.

RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.

DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice.

RevDate: 2020-11-10

Hamdullah , Ali S, Khan A, et al (2020)

Economic appraisal of transformative climate change on potential variations in wellbeing of wheat growers across various ecological zones.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-11409-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is an emerging reality across the globe effecting the human lives directly and indirectly as well. Agriculture sector is highly exposed to the climate and would be affected to large extent in future. This study probes the impacts of climate change on net revenue of wheat growers across agroclimatic zones of Balochistan. Using multistage sampling procedure, primary data was gathered from sample of 438 wheat farmers across agroclimatic zones of Balochistan. Two seasonal data of years 2018 and 2019 were used along with seasonal climatic data of temperature and rainfall of 2017-2019. Ricardian technique was utilized to investigate the impact of changing climate on net revenue of wheat crop. Results revealed that temperature and rainfall have nonlinear relationships with Net revenue acre-1 of wheat growers. The estimated critical temperature for net revenue maximization was 21 °C. The optimal level of rainfall was 98 mm for net revenue maximization. Forecasting for all zones showed that with increase of 2 °C from the current level could decline net revenue by 8.7% and 3 °C could decrease net revenue by 15%. Zone-wise forecasting showed that increase in warming by 2 °C will adversely affect the net revenue in all zone except IV where net revenue will increase by 10%. Zone II and zone VII will suffer huge losses of 21% and 25%, respectively, of the current net revenue with 2 °C rise temperature. Government and other environmental agencies need to pay close attention to tree plantation in zones II and VII in particular and throughout Balochistan province in general to contain/moderate temperature rise in the future.

RevDate: 2020-11-10

Peters A, A Schneider (2020)

Cardiovascular risks of climate change.

Nature reviews. Cardiology pii:10.1038/s41569-020-00473-5 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-11-10

Anonymous (2020)

Correction to Supporting Information for Morales-Castilla et al., Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2019721117 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-11-10

Chueh YY, Fan C, YZ Huang (2020)

Copper concentration simulation in a river by SWAT-WASP integration and its application to assessing the impacts of climate change and various remediation strategies.

Journal of environmental management pii:S0301-4797(20)31538-3 [Epub ahead of print].

The present study aimed to investigate the copper distribution in a river through the integrated utilization of the soil hydrological assessment model and water quality model. The Erren River was selected as the investigated river system because an apparent heavy metal pollution was observed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate the soil flux. The Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program Model (WASP) was used for water quality simulation. The copper was selected as the model chemical and scenarios of various copper effluent control measures and impacts of the heavy rainfall by climate change on copper concentration were simulated. The results showed that the aqueous copper was adsorbed to suspended solids and the high aqueous copper concentration resulted in a high copper concentration in the sediment. In dry seasons, the aqueous copper concentration increased 215% comparing to the 2006-2016 average (baseline) concentration and a 20% decrease in copper concentration in the sediment was observed due to less wash-out solid. Under the impact of enhanced rainfall by climate change, the aqueous copper concentration decreased due to the increased river flow, which also reduced the copper deposition causing the copper concentration in the sediment lower than that in the baseline condition. In the middle and downstream river sections, the copper concentration in the water and sediment phases decreased around 66% by implementing a more-stringent effluent standard. The suspended solid played a key role for copper movement in a river. The copper accumulation in the sediment might be alleviated by reducing its aqueous concentration.

RevDate: 2020-11-10

Wang W, Yuan S, Wu C, et al (2020)

Field experiments and model simulation based evaluation of rice yield response to projected climate change in Southeastern China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)36737-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Evaluating the impact of climate change factors, especially temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2), on rice yield is essential to ensure future food security. Because of the wide biogeographical distribution of rice, such evaluations are conducted exclusively through modeling efforts. However, geographical forecasts could, potentially, be improved by the inclusion of field-based data on projected increases in temperature and CO2 concentration from a given rice-growing region. In this study, the latest version of the ORYZA (v3) crop model was evaluated with additional yield data obtained from a temperature-controlled free-air CO2 enrichment system (T-FACE) in Southeastern China. ORYZA (v3) results were then evaluated in the context of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using five global change models (GCMs). Our findings indicate that climate change, i.e., inclusion of CO2 and temperature effects, decreased mean rice yield by 3.5%, and 9.4% for RCP 4.5; and by 10.5 and 47.9% for RCP 8.5 for the scenarios in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The CO2 fertilizer effect partially compensated but did not offset the negative impacts of rising temperature on rice yields. Warmer temperatures were the primary factor that influenced yield by adversely affecting the spikelet fertility factor and spikelet number. Overall, climate change would have positive effects on rice yields until the middle-century in Southeastern China but negative effects were noted by the end of the century. These results may be of interest for informing policy makers and developing appropriate strategies to improve future rice productivity for this region of China.

RevDate: 2020-11-09

do Nascimento Neto JF, da Mota AJ, Roque RA, et al (2020)

Analysis of the transcription of genes encoding heat shock proteins (hsp) in Aedes aegypti Linnaeus, 1762 (Diptera: Culicidae), maintained under climatic conditions provided by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change) for the year 2100.

Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases pii:S1567-1348(20)30457-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Human actions intensify the greenhouse effect, aggravating climate changes in the Amazon and elsewhere in the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) foresees a global increase of up to 4.5 °C and 900 ppm CO2 (above current levels) by 2100. This will impact the biology of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, vector of Dengue, Zika, urban Yellow Fever and Chikungunya. Heat shock proteins are associated with adaptations to anthropic environments and the interaction of some viruses with the vector. The transcription of the hsp26, hsp83 and hsc70 genes of an A. aegypti population, maintained for more than forty-eight generations, in the Current, Intermediate and Extreme climatic scenario predicted by the IPCC was evaluated with qPCR. In females, highest levels of hsp26, hsp83 and hsc70 expression occurred in the Intermediate scenario, while in males, levels were high only for hsp26 gene in Current and Extreme scenarios. Expression of hsp83 and hsc70 genes in males was low under all climatic scenarios, while in the Extreme scenario females had lower expression than in the Current scenario. The data suggest compensatory or adaptive processes acting on heat shock proteins, which can lead to changes in the mosquito's biology, altering vectorial competence.

RevDate: 2020-11-09

Liu Z, Herman JD, Huang G, et al (2020)

Identifying climate change impacts on surface water supply in the southern Central Valley, California.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)36960-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Mountain regions in arid and semi-arid climates, such as California, are considered particularly sensitive to climate change because global warming is expected to alter snowpack storage and related surface water supply. It is therefore important to accurately capture snowmelt processes in watershed models for climate change impact assessment. In this study we use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate projected changes in snowpack and streamflow in four alpine tributaries to the agriculturally important but less studied southern Central Valley, California. Watershed responses are evaluated for four CMIP5 climate models (HadGEM_ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2 and MIROC5) and two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2020-2099. SWAT models are calibrated following a dual-objective, lumped calibration approach with an automatic calibration against observed streamflow (stage 1) and a manual calibration against reconstructed Parallel Energy Balance (ParBal) snow water equivalent (SWE) data (stage 2). Results indicate that under a warming climate, peak streamflow is expected to increase 0.5-4 times in magnitude in the coming decades and to arrive 2-4 months earlier in the year because of earlier snowmelt. In the foreseeable future, snow cover will reduce gradually in the lower elevations and diminish at higher rates at higher elevation towards the end of the 21st century. Surface water supply is predicted to increase in the southern Central Valley under the evaluated scenarios but increased temporal variability (wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons) will create new challenges for managing supply. The study further highlights that the use of remote sensing based, reconstructed SWE data could fill the current gap of limited in-situ SWE observations to improve the snow calibration of SWAT to better predict climate change impacts in semi-arid, snow-dominated watersheds.

RevDate: 2020-11-08

Feidantsis K, Pörtner HO, Giantsis IA, et al (2020)

Advances in understanding the impacts of global warming on marine fishes farmed offshore: Sparus aurata as a case study.

Journal of fish biology [Epub ahead of print].

Monitoring variations in proteins involved in metabolic processes, oxidative stress responses, cell signaling and protein homeostasis is a powerful tool for developing hypotheses of how environmental variations affect marine organisms' physiology and biology. According to the oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) hypothesis, thermal acclimation mechanisms such as adjusting the activities of enzymes of intermediary metabolism, of antioxidant defense mechanisms, inducing heat shock proteins (Hsps) or activating mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPKs), may all shift tolerance windows. Few studies have, however, investigated the molecular, biochemical and organismal responses by fishes to seasonal temperature variations in the field, to link these to laboratory findings. Investigation of the impacts of global warming on fishes farmed offsore, in the open sea, can provide a stepping stone towards understanding effects on wild populations, because they experience similar environmental fluctuations. Over the last thirty years, farming of the gilthead sea bream Sparus aurata (Linnaeus 1758) has become widespread along the Mediterranean coastline, rendering this species a useful case study. Based upon available information, the prevailing seasonal temperature variations expose the species to the upper and lower limits of its thermal range. Evidence for this includes oxygen restriction, reduced feeding, reduced responsiveness to environmental stimuli, plus a range of molecular and biochemical indicators that change across the thermal range. Additionally, close relationships between biochemical pathways and seasonal patterns of metabolism indicate a connection between energy demand and metabolic processes on the one hand, and cellular stress responses such as oxidative stress, inflammation and autophagy, on the other. Understanding physiological responses to temperature fluctuations in fishes farmed offshore of open sea farmed can provide crucial background information for the conservation and successful management of aquaculture resources in the face of global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-11-08

Kajale S, Jani K, A Sharma (2020)

Contribution of archaea and bacteria in sustaining climate change by oxidizing ammonia and sulfur in an Arctic Fjord.

Genomics pii:S0888-7543(20)32002-4 [Epub ahead of print].

The present study attempts to investigate the microbial communities and their potential to oxidize ammonia and sulfur at different sites of Arctic Fjord by targeted metagenomics. The high throughput sequencing revealed archaeal Thaumarchaeota (79.3%), Crenarchaeota (10.9%), Euryarchaeota (5.4%), and Woesearchaeota (2.9%) across different depths. In contrast, the bacterial communities depict predominance of Proteobacteria (52.6%), which comprises of dominant genera viz. Sulfurovum (11.2%) and Sulfurimonas (6.3%). Characterizing the metabolic potential of microbial communities with prime focus on the ammonia and sulfur cycling revealed the presence of amoABC and narGHYZ/ nxrAB genes encoding key enzymes. The ammonia cycling coupled with an augmentation of members of Nitrosopumilus belonging to the phylum Thaumarcheaota suggests the vital role of archaeal communities. Similarly, the persistence of chemolithoautotrophic members of Sulfurovum and Sulfurimonas along with the anaerobic genera Desulfocapsa and Desulfobulbus harboring SOX (sulfur-oxidation) system indicates the modulatory role of bacterial communities in sulfur cycling.

RevDate: 2020-11-09

Roa L, Velin L, Tudravu J, et al (2020)

Climate change: challenges and opportunities to scale up surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia care globally.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(11):e538-e543.

Climate change affects human health in a myriad of ways, requiring reassessment of the nature of scaling up care delivery and the effect that care delivery has on the environment. 5 billion people do not have access to safe and timely surgical care, and the quantity and severity of conditions that require surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia care will increase substantially as a result of climate change. However, surgery is resource intensive and contributes substantially to greenhouse-gas emissions. In response to climate change, the surgical, obstetric, and anaesthesia community has a key role to play to ensure that a scale-up of service delivery incorporates mitigation and adaptation strategies. As countries scale up surgical care, understanding the implications of surgery on climate change and the implications of climate change on surgical care will be crucial in the development of health policies.

RevDate: 2020-11-09

Lee W, Kim Y, Sera F, et al (2020)

Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(11):e512-e521.

BACKGROUND: Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.

METHODS: DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk.

FINDINGS: The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99.

INTERPRETATION: This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health.

FUNDING: Korea Ministry of Environment.

RevDate: 2020-11-07

Bothwell HM, Evans LM, Hersch-Green EI, et al (2020)

Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from México to Canada, and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically-informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change, and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly "adaptive management" approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change.

RevDate: 2020-11-06

Potvin L, J Masuda (2020)

Climate change: a top priority for public health.

RevDate: 2020-11-09

Carmona AM, Renner M, Kleidon A, et al (2020)

Uncertainty of runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Amazon River basin.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences [Epub ahead of print].

We employ the approach of Roderick and Farquhar (2011) to assess the sensitivity of runoff (R) given changes in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep), and other properties that change the partitioning of P (n) by estimating coefficients that predict the weight of each variable in the relative change of R. We use this framework using different data sources and products for P, actual evapotranspiration (E), and Ep within the Amazon River basin to quantify the uncertainty of the hydrologic response at the subcatchment scale. We show that when estimating results from the different combinations of datasets for the entire river basin (at Óbidos), a 10% increase in P would increase R on average 16%, while a 10% increase in Ep would decrease R about 6%. In addition, a 10% change in the parameter n would affect the hydrological response of the entire basin around 5%. However, results change from catchment to catchment and are dependent on the combination of datasets. Finally, results suggest that enhanced estimates of E and Ep are needed to improve our understanding of the future scenarios of hydrological sensitivity with implications for the quantification of climate change impacts at the regional (subcatchment and subbasin) scale in Amazonia.

RevDate: 2020-11-06

Nash MC, Adey W, AS Harvey (2020)

High Magnesium Calcite and Dolomite-composition carbonate in Amphiroa (Lithophyllaceae, Corallinales, Rhodophyta): further documentation of elevated Mg in Corallinales with climate change implications.

Journal of phycology [Epub ahead of print].

Species of the calcified, articulate coralline Amphiroa are key components of many shallow marine ecosystems. Understanding their mineral composition is important as their susceptibility to dissolution, due to ocean acidification, may vary with mineral composition. We studied the distribution of Mg-calcite, very high magnesium calcite (VHMC) and dolomite within Amphiroa species to elucidate their mineral properties and susceptibility to dissolution. Results revealed that the asymmetrical X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern typical of Amphiroa globally, represents high levels of VHMC and dolomite-composition carbonate. The dolomite seems most likely to be disordered, but higher resolution XRD is required for confirmation. The calcified long sides of medullary cells have predominantly VHMC/dolomite and the corners have bands of VHMC/dolomite. Epithallial cell walls are low Mg-calcite, and cortical cells are low Mg-calcite with bands of VHMC. VHMC/dolomite is more stable than Mg-calcite, and this may provide a competitive advantage for Amphiroa species as seawater pH declines. Further work is required to determine the metabolic controls on VHMC/dolomite mineral formation.

RevDate: 2020-11-06

Zanatta F, Engler R, Collart F, et al (2020)

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

Nature communications, 11(1):5601 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-19410-8.

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7-96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

RevDate: 2020-11-09

Clark MA, Domingo NGG, Colgan K, et al (2020)

Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 370(6517):705-708.

The Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5° or 2°C above preindustrial levels requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Although reducing emissions from fossil fuels is essential for meeting this goal, other sources of emissions may also preclude its attainment. We show that even if fossil fuel emissions were immediately halted, current trends in global food systems would prevent the achievement of the 1.5°C target and, by the end of the century, threaten the achievement of the 2°C target. Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and ambitious changes to food systems as well as to all nonfood sectors. The 2°C target could be achieved with less-ambitious changes to food systems, but only if fossil fuel and other nonfood emissions are eliminated soon.

RevDate: 2020-11-06

Shankar HM, MB Rice (2020)

Update on Climate Change: Its Impact on Respiratory Health at Work, Home, and at Play.

Clinics in chest medicine, 41(4):753-761.

Climate change is a crisis of vast proportions that has serious implications for pulmonary health. Increasing global temperatures influence respiratory health through extreme weather events, wildfires, prolonged allergy seasons, and worsening air pollution. Children, elderly patients, and patients with underlying lung disease are at elevated risk of complications from these effects of climate change. This paper summarizes the myriad ways in which climate change affects the respiratory health of patients at home and in outdoor environments and outlines measures for patients to protect themselves.

RevDate: 2020-11-06

Lynch MJ, Stretesky PB, Long MA, et al (2020)

The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Hypothesis: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities, 2002 to 2015.

International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology [Epub ahead of print].

Drawing on prior studies, green criminologists have hypothesized that climate change will both raise the mean temperature and the level of crime. We call this the "climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis" ("CC-T-C"). This hypothesis is an extension of research performed on temperature and crime at the individual level. Other research explores this relationship by testing for the relationship between seasonality and crime within a given period of time (i.e., within years). Climate change, however, produces small changes in temperature over long periods of time, and in this view, the effect of climate change on crime should be assessed across and not within years. In addition, prior CC-T-C studies sometimes employ large geographic aggregations (e.g., the entire whole United States), which masks the CC-T-C association that appears at lower levels of aggregation. Moreover, globally, crime has declined across nations since the early 1990s, during a period of rising mean global temperatures, suggesting that the CC-T-C hypothesis does not fit the general trends in temperature and crime over time. Addressing these issues, the present study assesses the CC-T-C relationship for a sample of 15 large (N = 15) US cities over a 14-year period. Given the CC-T-C hypothesis parameters, we assessed this relationship using correlations between individual crime and temperature trends for each city. Crime trends were measured by both the number and rate of eight Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Part I crimes, so that for each city, there are 16 crime-temperature correlations. Using a liberal p value (p = .10), the temperature-crime correlations were rejected as insignificant in 220 of the 234 tests (94%). We discuss the Implications of this finding and suggest that rather than focusing on the temperature-crime relationship, green criminologists interested in the deleterious effects of climate change draw attention to its larger social, economic, environmental and ecological justice implications.

RevDate: 2020-11-08

Ruane AC, Antle J, Elliott J, et al (2018)

Biophysical and economic implications for agriculture of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming using AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments.

Climate research, 76(1):17-39.

This study presents results of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of +1.5° and +2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions. This first CGRA application provides multi-discipline, multi-scale, and multi-model perspectives to elucidate major challenges for the agricultural sector caused by direct biophysical impacts of climate changes as well as ramifications of associated mitigation strategies. Agriculture in both target climate stabilizations is characterized by differential impacts across regions and farming systems, with tropical maize Zea mays experiencing the largest losses, while soy Glycine max mostly benefits. The result is upward pressure on prices and area expansion for maize and wheat Triticum aestivum, while soy prices and area decline (results for rice Oryza sativa are mixed). An example global mitigation strategy encouraging bioenergy expansion is more disruptive to land use and crop prices than the climate change impacts alone, even in the +2.0°C scenario which has a larger climate signal and lower mitigation requirement than the +1.5°C scenario. Coordinated assessments reveal that direct biophysical and economic impacts can be substantially larger for regional farming systems than global production changes. Regional farmers can buffer negative effects or take advantage of new opportunities via mitigation incentives and farm management technologies. Primary uncertainties in the CGRA framework include the extent of CO2 benefits for diverse agricultural systems in crop models, as simulations without CO2 benefits show widespread production losses that raise prices and expand agricultural area.

RevDate: 2020-11-05

Hiatt RA, N Beyeler (2020)

Cancer and climate change.

The Lancet. Oncology, 21(11):e519-e527.

The acute impact of climate change on human health is receiving increased attention, but little is known or appreciated about the effect of climate change on chronic diseases, particularly cancer. This Review provides a synopsis of what is known about climate change and the exposures it generates relevant to cancer. In the context of the world's cancer burden and the probable direction we could expect to follow in the absence of climate change, this scoping review of the literature summarises the effects that climate change is having on major cancers, from environmental exposures to ultraviolet radiation, air pollution, disruptions in the food and water supply, environmental toxicants, and infectious agents. Finally, we explore the effect of climate change on the possible disruption of health systems that have been essential to cancer control practice. We conclude with potential responses and opportunities for intervention.

RevDate: 2020-11-05

Yang G, Roy J, Veresoglou SD, et al (2020)

Soil biodiversity enhances the persistence of legumes under climate change.

The New phytologist [Epub ahead of print].

Global environmental change poses threats to plant and soil biodiversity. Yet, whether soil biodiversity loss can further influence plant community's response to global change is still poorly understood. We created a gradient of soil biodiversity using the dilution-to-extinction approach, and investigated the effects of soil biodiversity loss on plant communities during and following manipulations simulating global change disturbances in experimental grassland microcosms. Grass and herb biomass was decreased by drought and promoted by nitrogen deposition, and a fast recovery was observed following disturbances, independently of soil biodiversity loss. Warming promoted herb biomass during and following disturbance only when soil biodiversity was not reduced. However, legumes biomass was suppressed by these disturbances, and there were more detrimental effects with reduced soil biodiversity. Moreover, soil biodiversity loss suppressed the recovery of legumes following these disturbances. Similar patterns were found for the response of plant diversity. The changes in legumes might be partly attributed to the loss of mycorrhizal soil mutualists. Our study shows that soil biodiversity is crucial for legume persistence and plant diversity maintenance when faced with environmental change, highlighting the importance of soil biodiversity as a potential buffering mechanism for plant diversity and community composition in grasslands.

RevDate: 2020-11-05

van Wijk M, Naing S, Diaz Franchy S, et al (2020)

Perception and knowledge of the effect of climate change on infectious diseases within the general public: A multinational cross-sectional survey-based study.

PloS one, 15(11):e0241579 pii:PONE-D-20-20967.

Infectious diseases are emerging and re-emerging due to climate change. Understanding how climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases is important for both researchers and the general public. Yet, the widespread knowledge of the general public on this matter is unknown, and quantitative research is still lacking. A survey was designed to assess the knowledge and perception of 1) infectious diseases, 2) climate change and 3) the effect of climate change on infectious diseases. Participants were recruited via convenience sampling, and an anonymous cross-sectional survey with informed consent was distributed to each participant. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed primarily focusing on the occupational background as well as nationality of participants. A total of 458 individuals participated in this study, and most participants were originally from Myanmar, the Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and the United States. Almost half (44%) had a background in natural sciences and had a higher level of knowledge on infectious diseases compared to participants with non-science background (mean score of 12.5 and 11.2 out of 20, respectively). The knowledge of the effect of climate change on infectious diseases was also significantly different between participants with and without a background in natural sciences (13.1 and 11.8 out of 20, respectively). The level of knowledge on various topics was highly correlated with nationality but not associated with age. The general population demonstrated a high awareness and strong knowledge of climate change regardless of their background in natural sciences. This study exposes a knowledge gap in the general public regarding the effect of climate change on infectious diseases, and highlights that different levels of knowledge are observed in groups with differing occupations and nationalities. These results may help to develop awareness interventions for the general public.

RevDate: 2020-11-05

Couper LI, MacDonald AJ, EA Mordecai (2020)

Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate-disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county-level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate-disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23,619 ± 21,607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change-induced increases in Lyme disease burden.

RevDate: 2020-11-03

Varney RM, Chadburn SE, Friedlingstein P, et al (2020)

A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming.

Nature communications, 11(1):5544 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8.

Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (-196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to -232 ± 52 PgC.

RevDate: 2020-11-03

Tan ALS, Cheng MCF, Giacoletti A, et al (2020)

Integrating mechanistic models and climate change projections to predict invasion of the mussel, Mytilopsis sallei, along the southern China coast.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)36627-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Species invasion is an important cause of global biodiversity decline and is often mediated by shifts in environmental conditions such as climate change. To investigate this relationship, a mechanistic Dynamic Energy Budget model (DEB) approach was used to predict how climate change may affect spread of the invasive mussel Mytilopsis sallei, by predicting variation in the total reproductive output of the mussel under different scenarios. To achieve this, the DEB model was forced with present-day satellite data of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), and SST under two warming RCP scenarios and decreasing current Chl-a levels, to predict future responses. Under both warming scenarios, the DEB model predicted the reproductive output of M. sallei would enhance range extension of the mussel, especially in regions south of the Yangtze River when future declines in Chl-a were reduced by less than 10%, whereas egg production was inhibited when Chl-a decreased by 20-30%. The decrease in SST in the Yangtze River may, however, be a natural barrier to the northward expansion of M. sallei, with colder temperatures resulting in a strong decrease in egg production. Although the invasion path of M. sallei may be inhibited northwards by the Yangtze River, larger geographic regions south of the Yangtze River run the risk of invasion, with subsequent negative impacts on aquaculture through competition for food with farmed bivalves and damaging aquaculture facilities. Using a DEB model approach to characterise the life history traits of M. sallei, therefore, revealed the importance of food availability and temperature on the reproductive output of this mussel and allowed evaluation of the invasion risk for specific regions. DEB is, therefore, a powerful predictive tool for risk management of already established invasive populations and to identify regions with a high potential invasion risk.

RevDate: 2020-11-02

Kunreuther H (2020)

Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change-Induced Disasters.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Epub ahead of print].

In honor of the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article suggests ways of linking risk assessment and risk perception in developing risk management strategies that have a good chance of being implemented, focusing on the problem of reducing losses from natural hazards in the face of climate change. Following a checklist for developing an implementable risk management strategy, Section 2 highlights the impact that exponential growth of CO2 emissions is likely to have on future disaster losses as assessed by climate and social scientists. Section 3 then discusses how people perceive the risks of low-probability adverse events and the cognitive biases that lead them to underprepare for future losses. Based on this empirical evidence, Section 4 proposes a risk management strategy for reducing future losses using the principles of choice architecture to communicate the likelihood and consequences of disasters, coupled with economic incentives and well-enforced regulations.

RevDate: 2020-11-02

Rabin BM, Laney EB, RP Philipsborn (2020)

The Unique Role of Medical Students in Catalyzing Climate Change Education.

Journal of medical education and curricular development, 7:2382120520957653 pii:10.1177_2382120520957653.

Climate change is a well-recognized threat to human health with impacts on every organ system and with implications for disease processes across subspecialties. Climate-driven environmental exposures influence the pathophysiologic underpinnings of disease emphasized in the pre-clinical years of medical school. While medical schools are beginning to offer climate change and health electives, medical education is lagging in providing fundamental climate-and-health content to adequately prepare the next generation of physicians for the challenges that they will face in the provision of healthcare and the prevention and treatment of disease. This perspective piece highlights the unique role of medical students in catalyzing the incorporation of climate content into the pre-clinical medical school curriculum and provides topics for disseminated curricular integration with the concepts emphasized in the pre-clinical years of medical education.

RevDate: 2020-11-02

Duan R, Huang G, Li Y, et al (2020)

Stepwise clustering future meteorological drought projection and multi-level factorial analysis under climate change: A case study of the Pearl River Basin, China.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(20)31265-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has significant impacts on the Pearl River Basin, and the regional ecological environment and human production may face severe challenges in the future due to changes in temperature and precipitation, as well as their derivative disasters (e.g., drought). Therefore, a full understanding of the possible impacts of climate change on Pearl River Basin is desired. In this study, the potential changes in temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions were projected through a stepwise clustering projection (SCP) model driven by multiple GCMs under two different RCPs. The developed model could facilitate specifying the inherently complex relationship between predictors and predictands, and its performance was proven to be great by comparing the observations and model simulations. A multi-level factorial analysis was employed to explore the major contributing factors to the variations in projecting drought conditions. The results suggested that the Pearl River Basin would suffer significant increasing trends in Tmean (i.e., 0.25-0.34 °C per decade under RCP4.5 and 0.42-0.60 °C per decade under RCP8.5), and the annual mean precipitation would increase under both RCPs. The drought events lasting for 1-2 months would be decreased by 7.7%, lasting for 3-4 months would be increased by 4.3%, and lasting for more than five months would be increased by 3.4% under RCP4.5, respectively. While they changed to 6.1%, 1.4%, and 4.7% under RCP8.5, respectively. More medium and long-term drought events with higher drought severity would occur. GCM has dominant influences on four different responses of drought duration, accounting for 50.20%, 52.61%, 56.71%, and 56.24% of total variabilities, respectively. Meanwhile, the effects explained by GCM*RCP interactions cannot be neglected, with an average contribution rate of 44.37%, 37.86%, 37.66%, and 35.83%, respectively.

RevDate: 2020-11-02

Gårdmark A, M Huss (2020)

Individual variation and interactions explain food web responses to global warming.

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences, 375(1814):20190449.

Understanding food web responses to global warming, and their consequences for conservation and management, requires knowledge on how responses vary both among and within species. Warming can reduce both species richness and biomass production. However, warming responses observed at different levels of biological organization may seem contradictory. For example, higher temperatures commonly lead to faster individual body growth but can decrease biomass production of fishes. Here we show that the key to resolve this contradiction is intraspecific variation, because (i) community dynamics emerge from interactions among individuals, and (ii) ecological interactions, physiological processes and warming effects often vary over life history. By combining insights from temperature-dependent dynamic models of simple food webs, observations over large temperature gradients and findings from short-term mesocosm and multi-decadal whole-ecosystem warming experiments, we resolve mechanisms by which warming waters can affect food webs via individual-level responses and review their empirical support. We identify a need for warming experiments on food webs manipulating population size structures to test these mechanisms. We stress that within-species variation in both body size, temperature responses and ecological interactions are key for accurate predictions and appropriate conservation efforts for fish production and food web function under a warming climate. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.

RevDate: 2020-10-31

Teodoro JD, Prell C, L Sun (2020)

Quantifying stakeholder learning in climate change adaptation across multiple relational and participatory networks.

Journal of environmental management, 278(Pt 2):111508 pii:S0301-4797(20)31433-X [Epub ahead of print].

Responding to accelerating climate change impacts requires broad and effective engagement with stakeholders, at multiple geographic and governance levels. Stakeholder participation has been hailed as a facilitated approach in climate change adaptation that supports social learning, depolarization of perceptions, and fosters collective action. But stakeholder participation remains loosely interpreted and evaluating measures are limited. This study employs social network analysis (SNA) to investigate how social relations among stakeholders, which emerge as a result of participation, are associated with stakeholder learning, as changes in perceptions of climate change. We hypothesized that reciprocal ties of understanding, respect, and influence can predict changes in perceptions of climate change. This approach was applied to a case study in Deal Island Peninsula, Maryland (USA) where local residents, scientists, and government officials met from 2016 to 2018 to collaboratively manage the impacts of sea-level rise in their communities. We found that social relations based on mutual understanding, respect,and influence are positively associated with perceptions of climate change. We provide a detailed conceptualization and implementation of a network-based approach that may serve as a potential quantitative performance measure of stakeholder participation processes in climate change adaptation. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the role that emerging social relations have on enhancing or constraining social learning among stakeholders in the Deal Island Peninsula project.

RevDate: 2020-10-31

Vallianou NG, Geladari EV, Kounatidis D, et al (2020)

Diabetes mellitus in the era of climate change.

Diabetes & metabolism pii:S1262-3636(20)30156-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Worldwide, diabetes mellitus (DM) represents a major public-health problem due to its increasing prevalence in tandem with the rising trend of obesity. However, climate change, with its associated negative health effects, also constitutes a worrisome problem. Patients with DM are experiencing more visits to emergency departments, hospitalizations, morbidity and mortality during heat waves at ever-increasing numbers. Such patients are particularly vulnerable to heat waves due to impaired thermoregulatory mechanisms in conjunction with impaired autonomous nervous system responses at high temperatures, electrolyte imbalances and rapid deterioration of kidney function, particularly among those aged > 80 years and with preexisting chronic kidney disease (CKD). Moreover, exposure to cold temperatures is associated with increased rates of acute myocardial infarction as well as poor glycaemic control, although results are conflicting regarding cold-related mortality among patients with DM. In addition to extremes of temperature, air pollution as a consequence of the climate crisis may also be implicated in the increased prevalence and incidence of DM, particularly gestational DM (GDM), and lead to deleterious effects in patients with DM. Thus, more large-scale studies are now required to elucidate the association between specific air pollutants and risk of DM. This review presents the currently available evidence for the detrimental effects of climate change, particularly those related to weather variables, on patients with DM (both type 1 and type 2) and GDM. Specifically, the effects of heat waves and extreme cold, and pharmaceutical and therapeutic issues and their implications, as well as the impact of air pollution on the risk for DM are synthesized and discussed here.

RevDate: 2020-10-31

Jeon J, Park JH, Yuk H, et al (2020)

Evaluation of hygrothermal performance of wood-derived biocomposite with biochar in response to climate change.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(20)31256-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Wood is a sustainable resource and building material. It provides an excellent response to climate change and has excellent insulation performance. However, structural defects may occur due to decay from moisture, resulting in poor dimensional stability. The rich organic substances contained in wood can lead to mold when the moisture content is consistently high, adversely affecting the health of occupants. Therefore, we attempted to compensate for the disadvantages of wood in regard to water stability while maintaining the high thermal insulation performance and carbon dioxide storage capacity, using biochar from thermally decomposed spruce under oxygen limiting conditions. A wood-derived biocomposite was prepared by mixing biochar and soft wood-based chips using the hot-press method, and the thermal conductivity, specific heat, water vapor resistance factor, moisture adsorption, and moisture desorption performances were analyzed. The thermal conductivity of WB10 with 10 wt% biochar content was 0.09301 W/mK. This is a 7.98% decrease from 0.10108W/mK, the thermal conductivity of WB0 without biochar. The water vapor resistance factor tended to increase when the biochar ratio increased. As the proportion of biochar increased, the equilibrium moisture content in high relative humidity tended to decrease, and it was found that the moisture adsorption and desorption performances were affected by the ratio of the biochar. Therefore, wood-derived biocomposites using biochar can be used in environmentally friendly materials, with improved thermal insulation performance and water stability.

RevDate: 2020-10-31

Schwartz SA (2020)

America, consciousness, COVID-19, climate change, and migration.

Explore (New York, N.Y.) pii:S1550-8307(20)30299-8 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-10-31

Benelli G, Wilke ABB, Bloomquist JR, et al (2020)

Overexposing mosquitoes to insecticides under global warming: A public health concern?.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)36599-2 [Epub ahead of print].

The combined effect of global warming and insecticide exposure on the spread of mosquito-borne diseases is poorly studied. In our opinion, more resources should be diverted to this topic to further research efforts and deal with this increasing threat. It is particularly important to determine how Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex vector species cope with insecticide exposure under warming temperatures, as well as how both stressors may impact the activity of mosquito biocontrol agents. Herein, we promote a discussion on the topic, fostering a research agenda with insights for the longer-term implementation of mosquito control strategies under the Integrated Vector Management framework.

RevDate: 2020-10-31

Chen X, Zhang H, Chen W, et al (2020)

Urbanization and climate change impacts on future flood risk in the Pearl River Delta under shared socioeconomic pathways.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)36674-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and urbanization are converging to challenge the flood control in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) due to their adverse impacts on precipitation extremes and the urban areas environment. Previous studies have investigated temporal changes in flood risk with various single factor, few have considered the joint effects of climate change, urbanization and socio-economic development. Here, based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of future (2030-2050) flood risk over the PRD combined with a thorough investigation of climate change, urbanization and socio-economic development. Precipitation extremes were projected using the regional climate model RegCM4.6, and urbanization growth was projected based on the CA-Markov model. The economic and population development was estimated by the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Flood risk mapping with different RCPs-urbanization-SSPs scenarios was developed for the PRD based on the set pair analyze theory. The results show that climate change and urbanization are expected to exacerbate flood risk in most parts of the PRD during the next few decades, concurrently with more intense extreme precipitation events. The high flood risk areas are projected mainly in the urban regions with unfavorable terrain and dense population. The highest flood risk areas are expected to increase by 8.72% and 19.80% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions may effectively mitigate the flood risk over the PRD. This study highlight the links between flood risk and changing environment, suggesting that flood risk management and preventative actions should be included in regional adaptation strategies.

RevDate: 2020-10-30

Bray CD, Battye WH, Aneja VP, et al (2020)

Global Emissions of NH3, NOx and N2O from Biomass Burning and the Impact of Climate Change.

Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995) [Epub ahead of print].

Emissions of ammonia (NH3), oxides of nitrogen (NOx; NO +NO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) from biomass burning were quantified on a global scale for 2001 to 2015. On average biomass burning emissions at a global scale over the period were as follows: 4.53 ± 0.51 Tg NH3 year-1, 14.65 ± 1.60 Tg NOx year-1, and 0.97 ± 0.11 Tg N2O year-1. Emissions were comparable to other emissions databases. Statistical regression models were developed to project NH3, NOx and N2O emissions from biomass burning as a function of burn area. Two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were analyzed for 2050-2055 ('mid-century') and 2090-2095 ('end of century'). Under the assumptions made in this study, the results indicate emissions of all species are projected to increase under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios.

RevDate: 2020-10-30

Starup-Hansen J, Dunne H, Sadler J, et al (2020)

Climate change in healthcare: Exploring the potential role of inhaler prescribing.

Pharmacology research & perspectives, 8(6):e00675.

Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. As a result, governments around the world are committing to legislative change in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs). The healthcare sector makes a significant contribution to GHGEs and in line with national legislation in the UK, the NHS has recently committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. The management of asthma and COPD largely depends on the prescribing of medications that are delivered through inhalers. In the UK, the use of pressurized metered dose inhalers (pMDIs), which rely on hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) propellants accounts for 3.5% of the NHS's total carbon footprint. In contrast, dry powder inhalers (DPIs) have a much lower carbon footprint due to the absence of a HFC propellant. Here we review evidence of the impact of inhaler choices across four domains: environmental impact, clinical effectiveness, cost effectiveness and patient preferences. We find that as well as a lower global-warming potential, DPIs have additional benefits over pMDIs in other domains and should be considered first line where clinically appropriate.

RevDate: 2020-10-30

Behera M, Sena DR, Mandal U, et al (2020)

Integrated GIS-based RUSLE approach for quantification of potential soil erosion under future climate change scenarios.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(11):733 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08688-2.

Human-induced agricultural and developmental activities cause substantial alteration to the natural geography of a landscape; thereby accelerates the geologic soil erosion process. This necessitates quantification of catchment-scale soil erosion under both retrospective and future scenarios for efficient conservation of soil resources. Here, we present a revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) based soil erosion estimation framework at an unprecedentedly high spatial resolution (30 × 30 m) to quantify the average annual soil loss and sediment yield from an agriculture-dominated river basin. The input parameters were derived by using the observed rainfall data, soil characteristics (soil texture, hydraulic conductivity, organic matter content), and topographic characteristics (slope length and percent slope) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) and satellite imageries. The developed approach was evaluated in the Brahmani River basin (BRB) of eastern India, wherein the different RUSLE inputs, viz., rainfall erosivity (R factor), soil erodibility (K factor), topographic (LS factor), crop cover (C factor), and management practice (P factor) factors have the magnitude of 1937 to 4867 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1, 0.023 to 0.039 t h ha MJ-1 ha-1 mm-1, 0.03 to 74, 0.16 to 1, and 0 to 1, respectively. The estimated average annual soil loss over the BRB ranged from 0 to 319.55 t ha-1 year-1, and subsequent erosion categorization revealed that 54.2% of basin area comes under extreme soil erosion zones in the baseline period. Similarly, the sediment yield estimates varied in the range of 0.96 to 133.31 t ha-1 year-1, and 35.81% area were identified as high soil erosion potential zones. The extent of erosion under climate change scenario was assessed using the outputs of HadGEM2-ES climate model for the future time scales of 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2080 under the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The severity of soil erosion under climate change is expected to have a mixed impact in the range of -25 to 25% than the baseline scenario. The outcomes of this study will serve as a valuable tool for decision-makers while implementing management policies over the BRB, and can be well extended to any global catchment-scale applications.

RevDate: 2020-10-29

El Ghaziri M, BL Morse (2020)

Climate Change in Nursing Curriculum: The Time Is Now.

The Journal of nursing education, 59(11):660.

RevDate: 2020-10-29

Holt JR, Bernaola L, Britt KE, et al (2020)

Synergisms in Science: Climate Change and Integrated Pest Management Through the Lens of Communication-2019 Student Debates.

Journal of insect science (Online), 20(5):.

Every year, the Student Debates Subcommittee (SDS) of the Student Affairs Committee (SAC) for the annual Entomological Society of America (ESA) meeting organizes the Student Debates. This year, the SAC selected topics based on their synergistic effect or ability to ignite exponential positive change when addressed as a whole. For the 2019 Student Debates, the SAC SDS identified these topic areas for teams to debate and unbiased introduction speakers to address: 1) how to better communicate science to engage the public, particularly in the area of integrated pest management (IPM), 2) the influential impacts of climate change on agriculturally and medically relevant insect pests, and 3) sustainable agriculture techniques that promote the use of IPM to promote food security. Three unbiased introduction speakers gave a foundation for our audience to understand each debate topic, while each of six debate teams provided a strong case to support their stance or perspective on a topic. Debate teams submitted for a competitive spot for the annual ESA Student Debates and trained for the better part of a year to showcase their talents in presenting logical arguments for a particular topic. Both the debate teams and unbiased introduction speakers provided their insight toward a better understanding of the complexities of each topic and established a foundation to delve further into the topics of science advocacy and communication, climate change, and the many facets of integrated pest management.

RevDate: 2020-10-29

Gervais CR, Huveneers C, Rummer JL, et al (2020)

Population variation in the thermal response to climate change reveals differing sensitivity in a benthic shark.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Many species with broad distributions are exposed to different thermal regimes which often select for varied phenotypes. This intraspecific variation is often overlooked but may be critical in dictating the vulnerability of different populations to environmental change. We reared Port Jackson shark (Heterodontus portusjacksoni) eggs from two thermally-discrete populations (i.e., Jervis Bay and Adelaide) under each location's present-day mean temperatures, predicted end-of-century temperatures, and under reciprocal-cross conditions to establish intraspecific thermal sensitivity. Rearing temperatures strongly influenced ṀO2Max and critical thermal limits, regardless of population, indicative of acclimation processes. However, there were significant population-level effects, such that Jervis Bay sharks, regardless of rearing temperature, did not exhibit differences in ṀO2Rest , but under elevated temperatures exhibited reduced maximum swimming activity with step-wise increases in temperature. In contrast, Adelaide sharks reared under elevated temperatures doubled their ṀO2Rest , relative to their present-day temperature counterparts; however, maximum swimming activity was not influenced. With respect to reciprocal-cross comparisons, few differences were detected between Jervis Bay and Adelaide sharks reared under ambient Jervis Bay temperatures. Similarly, juveniles (from both populations) reared under Adelaide conditions had similar thermal limits and swimming activity (maximum volitional velocity and distance) to each other, indicative of conserved acclimation capacity. However, under Adelaide temperatures, the ṀO2Rest of Jervis Bay sharks was greater than that of Adelaide sharks. This indicates that the energetics of cooler water population (Adelaide) is likely more thermally-sensitive than that of the warmer population (Jervis Bay). While unique to elasmobranchs, these data provide further support that by treating species as static, homogeneous populations, we ignore the impacts of thermal history and intraspecific variation on thermal sensitivity. With climate change, intraspecific variation will manifest as populations move, demographics change, or extirpations occur, starting with the most sensitive populations.

RevDate: 2020-10-29

Wang LJ, Ma S, Qiao YP, et al (2020)

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(21): pii:ijerph17217849.

Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China's and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

RevDate: 2020-10-29
CmpDate: 2020-10-29

Li L, Yang J, J Wu (2020)

Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.

Sensors (Basel, Switzerland), 20(21): pii:s20216079.

Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios.

RevDate: 2020-10-29

Lim CL (2020)

Fundamental Concepts of Human Thermoregulation and Adaptation to Heat: A Review in the Context of Global Warming.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(21): pii:ijerph17217795.

The international community has recognized global warming as an impending catastrophe that poses significant threat to life on earth. In response, the signatories of the Paris Agreement (2015) have committed to limit the increase in global mean temperature to < 1.5 °C from pre-industry period, which is defined as 1950-1890. Considering that the protection of human life is a central focus in the Paris Agreement, the naturally endowed properties of the human body to protect itself from environmental extremes should form the core of an integrated and multifaceted solution against global warming. Scholars believe that heat and thermoregulation played important roles in the evolution of life and continue to be a central mechanism that allows humans to explore, labor and live in extreme conditions. However, the international effort against global warming has focused primarily on protecting the environment and on the reduction of greenhouse gases by changing human behavior, industrial practices and government policies, with limited consideration given to the nature and design of the human thermoregulatory system. Global warming is projected to challenge the limits of human thermoregulation, which can be enhanced by complementing innate human thermo-plasticity with the appropriate behavioral changes and technological innovations. Therefore, the primary aim of this review is to discuss the fundamental concepts and physiology of human thermoregulation as the underlying bases for human adaptation to global warming. Potential strategies to extend human tolerance against environmental heat through behavioral adaptations and technological innovations will also be discussed. An important behavioral adaptation postulated by this review is that sleep/wake cycles would gravitate towards a sub-nocturnal pattern, especially for outdoor activities, to avoid the heat in the day. Technologically, the current concept of air conditioning the space in the room would likely steer towards the concept of targeted body surface cooling. The current review was conducted using materials that were derived from PubMed search engine and the personal library of the author. The PubMed search was conducted using combinations of keywords that are related to the theme and topics in the respective sections of the review. The final set of articles selected were considered "state of the art," based on their contributions to the strength of scientific evidence and novelty in the domain knowledge on human thermoregulation and global warming.

RevDate: 2020-10-29

Dodson JC, Dérer P, Cafaro P, et al (2020)

Population growth and climate change: Addressing the overlooked threat multiplier.

The Science of the total environment, 748:141346.

Demographic trends will play a role in determining the magnitude of climate disruption and the ability of societies to adapt to it. Yet policy makers largely ignore the potential of fertility changes and population growth when designing policies to limit climate disruption and lessen its impacts. Here we argue that rights-based policy interventions could decrease fertility rates to levels consistent with low population pathways. We review country and global level studies that explore the effects of low population pathways on climate change mitigation and adaptation. We then provide rights-based policy recommendations, such as the expansion of voluntary family planning programs that incorporate elements from successful past programs, and highlight current research gaps. In concert with policies that end fossil fuel use and incentivize sustainable consumption, humane policies that slow population growth should be part of a multifaceted climate response. These policies require attention from scientists, policy analysts and politicians.

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Schramm PJ, Ahmed M, Siegel H, et al (2020)

Climate Change and Health: Local Solutions to Local Challenges.

Current environmental health reports pii:10.1007/s40572-020-00294-1 [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Climate change has direct impacts on human health, but those impacts vary widely by location. Local health impacts depend on a large number of factors including specific regional climate impacts, demographics and human vulnerabilities, and existing local adaptation capacity. There is a need to incorporate local data and concerns into climate adaptation plans and evaluate different approaches.

RECENT FINDINGS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has provided funding, technical assistance, and an adaptation framework to assist localities with climate planning and activities. The differing processes with which states, cities, and tribes develop and implement adaptation plans have been observed. We outline examples of the implementation of CDC's framework and activities for local adaptation, with a focus on case studies at differing jurisdictional levels (a state, a city, and a sovereign tribe). The use of local considerations and data are important to inform climate adaptation. The adaptable implementation of CDC's framework is helping communities protect health.

RevDate: 2020-10-28

PLOS ONE Staff (2020)

Correction: Cultivation Potential Projections of Breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) Under Climate Change Scenarios Using an Empirically Validated Suitability Model Calibrated in Hawai'i.

PloS one, 15(10):e0241547 pii:PONE-D-20-32850.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0228552.].

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Ogden NH, Ben Beard C, Ginsberg HS, et al (2020)

Possible Effects of Climate Change on Ixodid Ticks and the Pathogens They Transmit: Predictions and Observations.

Journal of medical entomology pii:5942051 [Epub ahead of print].

The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key direct climate and weather sensitivities include survival of individual ticks, and the duration of development and host-seeking activity of ticks. These sensitivities mean that in some regions a warming climate may increase tick survival, shorten life-cycles and lengthen the duration of tick activity seasons. Indirect effects of climate change on host communities may, with changes in tick abundance, facilitate enhanced transmission of tick-borne pathogens. High temperatures, and extreme weather events (heat, cold, and flooding) are anticipated with climate change, and these may reduce tick survival and pathogen transmission in some locations. Studies of the possible effects of climate change on TTBDs to date generally project poleward range expansion of geographical ranges (with possible contraction of ranges away from the increasingly hot tropics), upslope elevational range spread in mountainous regions, and increased abundance of ticks in many current endemic regions. However, relatively few studies, using long-term (multi-decade) observations, provide evidence of recent range changes of tick populations that could be attributed to recent climate change. Further integrated 'One Health' observational and modeling studies are needed to detect changes in TTBD occurrence, attribute them to climate change, and to develop predictive models of public- and animal-health needs to plan for TTBD emergence.

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Oliver SL, H Ribeiro (2020)

Zika virus syndrome, lack of environmental policies and risks of worsening by cyanobacteria proliferation in a climate change scenario.

Revista de saude publica, 54:83 pii:S0034-89102020000100702.

Almost half of the Brazilian population has no access to sewage collection and treatment. Untreated effluents discharged in waters of reservoirs for human supply favor the flowering of cyanobacteria - and these microorganisms produce toxins, such as saxitoxin, which is a very potent neurotoxin present in reservoirs in the Northeast region. A recent study confirmed that chronic ingestion of neurotoxin-infected water associated with Zika virus infection could lead to a microcephaly-like outcome in pregnant mice. Cyanobacteria benefit from hot weather and organic matter in water, a condition that has been intensified by climate change, according to our previous studies. Considering the new findings, we emphasize that zika arbovirus is widespread and worsened when associated with climate change, especially in middle- or low-income countries with low levels of sanitation coverage.

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Alfonso S, Gesto M, B Sadoul (2020)

Temperature increase and its effects on fish stress physiology in the context of global warming.

Journal of fish biology [Epub ahead of print].

The capacity of fishes to cope with environmental variation is considered to be a main determinant of their fitness and is partly determined by their stress physiology. By 2100, global ocean temperature is expected to rise by 1-4°C, with potential consequences for stress physiology. Global warming is affecting animal populations worldwide, through chronic temperature increases and an increase in the frequency of extreme heatwave events. As ectotherms, fishes are expected to be particularly vulnerable to global warming. Although little information is available about the effects of global warming on stress physiology in nature, multiple studies describe the consequences of temperature increases on stress physiology in controlled laboratory conditions, providing insight into what can be expected in the wild. Chronic temperature increase constitutes a physiological load than can alter the ability of fishes to cope with additional stressors, which might compromise their fitness. Besides, rapid temperature increases are known to induce acute stress responses in fishes and might be of ecological relevance in particular situations. This review summarizes knowledge about effects of temperature increases on the stress physiology of fishes, and discusses these in a context of global warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Hamann E, Blevins C, Franks SJ, et al (2020)

Climate change alters plant-herbivore interactions.

The New phytologist [Epub ahead of print].

Plant-herbivore interactions have evolved in response to co-evolutionary dynamics, along with selection driven by abiotic conditions. We examine how abiotic factors influence trait expression in both plants and herbivores to evaluate how climate change will alter this long-standing interaction. The paleontological record documents increased herbivory during periods of global warming in the deep past. In phylogenetically corrected meta-analyses, we find that elevated temperatures, CO2 concentration, drought stress and nutrient conditions directly and indirectly induce greater herbivore consumption, primarily in agricultural systems. Additionally, elevated CO2 delays herbivore development, but increased temperatures accelerate development. For annual plants, higher temperatures, CO2 , and drought stress increase foliar herbivory, and our meta-analysis suggests that greater temperatures and drought may heighten florivory in perennials. Human actions are causing concurrent shifts in CO2 , temperature, precipitation regimes and nitrogen deposition, yet few studies evaluate interactions among these changing conditions. We call for additional multifactorial studies that simultaneously manipulate multiple climatic factors, which will enable us to generate more robust predictions of how climate change could disrupt plant-herbivore interactions. Finally, we consider how shifts in insect and plant phenology and distribution patterns could lead to ecological mismatches, and how these changes may drive future adaptation and coevolution between interacting species.

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Blumstein M, Richardson A, Weston D, et al (2020)

Protocol for Projecting Allele Frequency Change under Future Climate Change at Adaptive-Associated Loci.

STAR protocols, 1(2):100061 pii:S2666-1667(20)30048-4.

We describe how to predict population-level allele frequency change at loci associated with locally adapted traits under future climate conditions. Our method can identify populations that are at higher risk of local extinction and those that might be prime targets for conservation intervention. We draw on previously developed community ecology statistical methods and apply them in novel ways to plant genomes. While a powerful diagnostic tool, our method requires a wealth of genomic data for use. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Blumstein et al. (2020).

RevDate: 2020-10-28

Wunderling N, Willeit M, Donges JF, et al (2020)

Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice.

Nature communications, 11(1):5177 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3.

Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales.

RevDate: 2020-10-27

Hess J, Boodram LG, Paz S, et al (2020)

Strengthening the global response to climate change and infectious disease threats.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 371:m3081.

RevDate: 2020-10-27

Chu H, J Yang (2020)

Their Economy and Our Health: Communicating Climate Change to the Divided American Public.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(21): pii:ijerph17217718.

Climate change poses severe economic and public health threats to societies around the world. However, little is known about how selectively emphasizing its impacts on different issues and in different locations influence public engagement in climate change mitigation. Utilizing an experimental survey with adult participants, this study investigates the effect of issue framing and distance framing on risk perception and policy support related to climate change. The impacts of political ideology, environmental value, and belief in climate science on message effect are also examined. Based on the results of ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) and OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression, we found that compared with the economy frame, the public health frame led to greater polarization in risk perception and policy support between liberals and conservatives, and these relationships were mediated by environmental value and belief in climate science. Similarly, distance framing also increased ideological polarization in risk perception and policy support.

RevDate: 2020-10-27

Tortorella MM, Di Leo S, Cosmi C, et al (2020)

A Methodological Integrated Approach to Analyse Climate Change Effects in Agri-Food Sector: The TIMES Water-Energy-Food Module.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(21): pii:ijerph17217703.

The European Union's 2030 climate and energy policy and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development underline the commitment to mitigate climate change and reduce its impacts by supporting sustainable use of resources. This commitment has become stricter in light of the ambitious climate neutrality target set by the European Green Deal for 2050. Water, Energy and Food are the key variables of the "Nexus Thinking" which face the sustainability challenge with a multi-sectoral approach. The aim of the paper is to show the methodological path toward the implementation of an integrated modeling platform based on the Nexus approach and consolidated energy system analysis methods to represent the agri-food system in a circular economy perspective (from the use of water, energy, biomass, and land to food production). The final aim is to support decision-making connected to climate change mitigation. The IEA-The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) model generator was used to build up the Basilicata Water, Energy and Food model (TIMES-WEF model), which allows users a comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on the Basilicata agri-food system in terms of land use, yields and water availability and a critical comparison of these indicators in different scenarios. The paper focuses on the construction of the model's Reference Energy and Material System of the TIMES model, which integrates water and agricultural commodities into the energy framework, and on the results obtained through the calibration of the model β version to statistical data on agricultural activities.

RevDate: 2020-10-26

Kramer KL, J Hackman (2020)

Scaling climate change to human behavior predicting good and bad years for Maya farmers.

American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: Human responses to climate variation have a rich anthropological history. However, much less is known about how people living in small-scale societies perceive climate change, and what climate data are useful in predicting food production at a scale that affects daily lives.

METHODS: We use longitudinal ethnographic interviews and economic data to first ask what aspects of climate variation affect the agricultural cycle and food production for Yucatec Maya farmers. Sixty years of high-resolution meteorological data and harvest assessments are then used to detect the scale at which climate data predict good and bad crop yields, and to analyze long-term changes in climate variables critical to food production.

RESULTS: We find that (a) only local, daily precipitation closely fits the climate pattern described by farmers. Other temporal (annual and monthly) scales miss key information about what farmers find important to successful harvests; (b) at both community- and municipal-levels, heavy late-season rains associated with tropical storms have the greatest negative impact on crop yields; and (c) in contrast to long-term patterns from regional and state data, local measures show an increase in rainfall during the late growing season, indicating that fine-grained data are needed to make accurate inferences about climate trends.

CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the importance to define climate variables at scales appropriate to human behavior. Course-grained annual, monthly, national, and state-level data tell us little about climate attributes pertinent to farmers and food production. However, high-resolution daily, local precipitation data do capture how climate variation shapes food production.

RevDate: 2020-10-26

Gurung LJ, Miller KK, Venn S, et al (2020)

Dataset of non-timber forest products use and impacts of recent climate change in the Upper Madi Watershed, Nepal.

Data in brief, 33:106404 pii:S2352-3409(20)31286-5.

This dataset presents data collected from household surveys from Upper Madi Watershed of Nepal describing the benefits of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) to people of mountain ecosystems, their perceptions of climate change, and perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs ecosystem services. The data were collected from 278 households that were randomly selected from the four villages in the watershed during the period September to December 2019. The survey assessed socio-demographic information; collected and utilized NTFPs; perceptions of climate change, and; perceived impacts of climate change on NTFPs ecosystem services. These data are important in understanding the benefits of non-timber forest products in mountain ecosystems and the impacts of climate change as the benefits and impacts are currently not well understood. The data will be helpful in formulation and implementation of adaptation strategies to sustain the supply, protection, and management of NTFPs in mountain ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-10-26

Aleuy OA, S Kutz (2020)

Adaptations, life-history traits and ecological mechanisms of parasites to survive extremes and environmental unpredictability in the face of climate change.

International journal for parasitology. Parasites and wildlife, 12:308-317 pii:S2213-2244(20)30070-5.

Climate change is increasing weather unpredictability, causing more intense, frequent and longer extreme events including droughts, precipitation, and both heat and cold waves. The performance of parasites, and host-parasite interactions, under these unpredictable conditions, are directly influenced by the ability of parasites to cope with extremes and their capacity to adapt to the new conditions. Here, we review some of the structural, behavioural, life history and ecological characteristics of parasitic nematodes that allow them to persist and adapt to extreme and changing environmental conditions. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on parasitic nematodes in the Arctic, where temperature extremes are pronounced, climate change is happening most rapidly, and changes in host-parasite interactions are already documented. We discuss how life-history traits, phenotypic plasticity, local adaptation and evolutionary history can influence the short and long term response of parasites to new conditions. A detailed understanding of the complex ecological processes involved in the survival of parasites in extreme and changing conditions is a fundamental step to anticipate the impact of climate change in parasite dynamics.

RevDate: 2020-10-26

Ndlovu E, Prinsloo B, T le Roux (2020)

Impact of climate change and variability on traditional farming systems: Farmers' perceptions from south-west, semi-arid Zimbabwe.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 12(1):742 pii:JAMBA-12-742.

Despite annual climate variability threats, traditional farming in semi-arid Zimbabwe remains entrenched in unproductive, rain-fed agricultural practices. Adaptation strategies by farmers are seemingly failing to mitigate climate impacts, as evidenced by annual crop and livestock losses. Matabeleland South Province was a thriving livestock and small grain-producing province in the 1970s. Today, the province relies heavily on humanitarian assistance from government and humanitarian agencies. Through literature review, observations and focus group discussions with 129 farmers, the qualitative study established the perceptions of farmers around climate variability impacts in the past 20 years in Mangwe, Matobo and Gwanda districts in Zimbabwe. The study (1) analysed changes in climate and weather patterns in the past 20 years; (2) analysed climate impacts on traditional farming systems in the past 20 years in Gwanda, Mangwe and Matobo districts in Zimbabwe; and (3) established farmers' perceptions, experiences and their climate adaptive strategies. The findings showed that the farmers experienced annual heat waves, protracted droughts, chaotic rain seasons, frost and floods, which led to environmental degradation. Traditional farming systems or practices have been abandoned in favour of buying and selling and gold panning, among other alternative livelihood options, because of climate-related threats and misconceptions around the subject of climate change. Farmers fail to access timely and comprehensive weather forecasts, resulting in annual crop and livestock losses, as decision-making is compromised. Given that the smallholder farming system sustains the bulk of the population in Matabeleland South Province in Zimbabwe, climate education and capital investment is needed to change traditional farmer perceptions about climate change impacts on the farming practices. Increased climate awareness initiatives, establishment of village-based weather stations and the marrying of traditional farming climate knowledge to modern practices are highly recommended to enhance resilience to climate.

RevDate: 2020-10-26

Marshall DJ, CD McQuaid (2020)

Metabolic Regulation, Oxygen Limitation and Heat Tolerance in a Subtidal Marine Gastropod Reveal the Complexity of Predicting Climate Change Vulnerability.

Frontiers in physiology, 11:1106.

Predictions for climate vulnerability of ectotherms have focused on performance-enhancing physiology, even though an organism's energetic state can also be balanced by lowering resting maintenance costs. Adaptive metabolic depression (hypometabolism) enables animals to endure food scarcity, and physically extreme and variable environmental conditions. Hypometabolism is common in terrestrial and intertidal marine gastropod species, though this physiology and tolerance of environmental change are poorly understood in subtidal benthic gastropods. We investigated oxygen limitation tolerance, hypometabolism and thermal performance in the subtidal, tropical snail Turritella bacillum. Survival, cardiac activity and oxygen debt repayment were determined when oxygen uptake was limited by gill function impairment (air exposure) or exposure to hypoxic seawater. Thermal performance and tolerance were assessed from survival and cardiac performance when heated. The ability of snails to regulate metabolism during oxygen limitation was demonstrated by their tolerance of air exposure (>36 h) and hypoxia (>16 h), rhythmicity and reversibility of bradycardia, and inconsistent anaerobic compensation. Under acute heating, mean heart rate was temperature-insensitive in water and temperature-dependent in air. Converging or peaking of individual heart rates during heating suggest maximization of thermal performance at 38-39°C, whereas survival and heartbeat flatlining suggest an upper thermal limit exceeding 42°C. Snails survived 16 h in seawater at 38°C. Their metabolic regulation complies with the oxygen-limiting, sediment-burrowing lifestyle of the species. Although a tropical organism, the species' thermal tolerance so far exceeds present habitat temperatures as to question its susceptibility to centennial climate warming. Our findings reveal the importance of knowing the metabolic regulatory capabilities and conserved physiological attributes of species used in climate vulnerability tests. Studies of ectotherm climate vulnerability that identify generalized trends based on physiologically similar animals may be misleading by missing information on physiological diversity.

RevDate: 2020-10-25

Mahmud AS, Martinez PP, He J, et al (2020)

The Impact of Climate Change on Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: Insights From Current Research and New Directions.

Current environmental health reports pii:10.1007/s40572-020-00293-2 [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Vaccine-preventable diseases remain a major public health concern globally. Climate is a key driver of the dynamics of many infectious diseases, including those that are vaccine preventable. Understanding the impact of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases is, thus, an important public health research priority. Here, we summarize the recent literature and highlight promising directions for future research.

RECENT FINDINGS: Vaccine-preventable enteric diseases, such as cholera, exhibit sensitivity to precipitation and flooding events. The predicted increase in extreme weather events as a result of climate change could exacerbate outbreaks of these pathogens. For airborne pathogens, temperature and specific humidity have been shown to be the most important environmental drivers, although the impact of climate change on disease burden and dynamics remains unclear. Finally, the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases are dependent on both temperature and precipitation, and climate change is expected to alter the burden and geographic range of these diseases. However, understanding the interacting effects of multiple factors, including socioeconomic and ecological factors, on the vector-borne disease ecosystem will be a crucial step towards forecasting disease burden under climate change. Recent work has demonstrated associations between climate and transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases. Translating these findings into forecasts under various climate change scenarios will require mechanistic frameworks that account for both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission, and the non-linear effects on disease burden. Future research should also pay greater attention to uncertainty in both the climate modeling processes as well as disease outcomes in the context of vaccine-preventable diseases.

RevDate: 2020-10-24

Tollefson J (2019)

Canadian kids sue government over climate change.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )