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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 29 May 2020 at 01:50 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2020-05-28

Boulton CA, Ritchie PDL, TM Lenton (2020)

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Past abrupt 'regime shifts' have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large-scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high-latitude regions. However, there is very little high-resolution modelling of smaller-scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate-driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high-resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO2 combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non-linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non-linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374-1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%-1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.

RevDate: 2020-05-28

Ahmed M (2020)

Introduction to Modern Climate Change. Andrew E. Dessler: Cambridge University Press, 2011, 252 pp, ISBN-10: 0521173159.

The Science of the total environment, 734:139397 pii:S0048-9697(20)32914-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is the variability of the climate system that includes the atmosphere, the biogeochemical cycles (Carbon cycle, Nitrogen cycle and Hydrological cycle), the land surface, ice and the biotic and abiotic components of the planet earth. Significant impact of climate change is seen in the form of rise in temperature called as global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the primary greenhouse gases (GHGs) mainly responsible for the global warming and climate change. These GHGs have drawn lot of attention due to their significant role in the global warming potential. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggested to stop global warming at 1.5oC above preindustrial levels as warming beyond this level might lead to heat extremes, alter insect and plant phenology (Phenological shifts) and more occurrence of vector borne diseases. Climate change is the topic of interest in all fields of life starting from social science and going to the applied science. Global climate cycles and world food production systems are under threat due to the recent climate extreme events. These events include heat waves and change in the rainfall patterns. Thus, risk reduction intervention in the form of mitigation and adaptation is required to minimize the impacts of climate change. Mitigation option includes understanding the present and future components of the climate system and interaction among them through coupled modeling system i.e. Global Circulation Model (GCM). Finally, global issue of climate change could be addressed by taking worldwide cooperation and action and adopting sustainable measures like use of alternative energy sources. The visible benefit on recovery of climate has been seen recently through global lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

RevDate: 2020-05-28

Elston DM (2020)

Climate change and expansion of tick geography.

Cutis, 105(4):161-162.

RevDate: 2020-05-27

Sardá LG, Higarashi MM, Nicoloso RS, et al (2020)

Effects of dicyandiamide and Mg/P on the global warming potential of swine slurry and sawdust cocomposting.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-09244-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Composting is an emerging strategy for swine slurry treatment; nonetheless, significant greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions may occur during this process. We carried out two separate assays with increasing doses of dicyandiamide (DCD; up to 1.1% w/w) as a nitrification inhibitor and solutions of MgCl2 and H3PO4 (Mg/P; up to 0.09/0.06 mol kg-1) to promote struvite crystallization in order to assess their efficiencies as additives to decrease GHG emission during swine slurry cocomposting with sawdust (1:1v/v). We monitored the nitrous oxide (N2O-N), methane (CH4-C), and carbon dioxide (CO2-C) emissions and the ammonia (NH4+-N) and nitrate/nitrite (NOx-N) concentrations in compost reactors (35 L) during the first 4-5 weeks of composting. DCD had no effect on CH4-C and CO2-C emissions but decreased N2O-N losses by up to 56% compared with control. However, DCD inactivation was favored by thermophilic conditions and N2O-N emissions increased to same levels of control after 13 days. Mg/P was effective to decrease N2O-N losses only at the highest dose, which also sustained higher [NH4+-N] in the compost by the end of the assessment. Nonetheless, the use of 0.09/0.06 mol kg-1 of Mg/P also decreased CH4-C and CO2-C emissions compared with lower doses of Mg/P and unamended treatments. Overall, DCD and Mg/P amendments decreased the global warming potential (GWP) of swine slurry composting by up to 46 and 28%, respectively. The Mg/P application may be also interesting to increase the compost quality by increasing its NH4+-N availability. Graphical abstract.

RevDate: 2020-05-27

Calleja-Cabrera J, Boter M, Oñate-Sánchez L, et al (2020)

Root Growth Adaptation to Climate Change in Crops.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:544.

Climate change is threatening crop productivity worldwide and new solutions to adapt crops to these environmental changes are urgently needed. Elevated temperatures driven by climate change affect developmental and physiological plant processes that, ultimately, impact on crop yield and quality. Plant roots are responsible for water and nutrients uptake, but changes in soil temperatures alters this process limiting crop growth. With the predicted variable climatic forecast, the development of an efficient root system better adapted to changing soil and environmental conditions is crucial for enhancing crop productivity. Root traits associated with improved adaptation to rising temperatures are increasingly being analyzed to obtain more suitable crop varieties. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge about the effect of increasing temperatures on root growth and their impact on crop yield. First, we will describe the main alterations in root architecture that different crops undergo in response to warmer soils. Then, we will outline the main coordinated physiological and metabolic changes taking place in roots and aerial parts that modulate the global response of the plant to increased temperatures. We will discuss on some of the main regulatory mechanisms controlling root adaptation to warmer soils, including the activation of heat and oxidative pathways to prevent damage of root cells and disruption of root growth; the interplay between hormonal regulatory pathways and the global changes on gene expression and protein homeostasis. We will also consider that in the field, increasing temperatures are usually associated with other abiotic and biotic stresses such as drought, salinity, nutrient deficiencies, and pathogen infections. We will present recent advances on how the root system is able to integrate and respond to complex and different stimuli in order to adapt to an increasingly changing environment. Finally, we will discuss the new prospects and challenges in this field as well as the more promising pathways for future research.

RevDate: 2020-05-27

García-Del-Amo D, Mortyn PG, V Reyes-García (2020)

Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.

Climatic change, 160(1):67-88.

Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from Indigenous and Local Knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities from around the world and collected through a literature review (n=198 case studies), with climate scientists' opinions on the relevance of such information for climate change research. Scientists' opinions were collected through a web survey among climate change researchers from universities and research centres in Spain (n=191). In the survey, we asked about the need to collect local level data regarding 68 different groups of indicators of climate change impacts to improve the current knowledge, and about the feasibility of using Indigenous and local knowledge in climate change studies. Results show consensus on the need to continue collecting local level data from all groups of indicators to get a better understanding of climate change impacts, particularly on impacts on the biological system. However, while scientists of our study considered that Indigenous and local knowledge could mostly contribute to detect climate change impacts on the biological and socioeconomic systems, the literature review shows that information on impacts on these systems is rarely collected; researchers instead have mostly documented the impacts on the climatic and physical systems reported by Indigenous and local knowledge.

RevDate: 2020-05-27

Palmer T (2020)

Short-term tests validate long-term estimates of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-27

Lembo V, Lucarini V, F Ragone (2020)

Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model.

Scientific reports, 10(1):8668 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-65297-2.

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change. We perform our study using a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic variables. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity, and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases due to changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the North Atlantic.

RevDate: 2020-05-27

Rushing CS, Royle JA, Ziolkowski DJ, et al (2020)

Migratory behavior and winter geography drive differential range shifts of eastern birds in response to recent climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2000299117 [Epub ahead of print].

Over the past half century, migratory birds in North America have shown divergent population trends relative to resident species, with the former declining rapidly and the latter increasing. The role that climate change has played in these observed trends is not well understood, despite significant warming over this period. We used 43 y of monitoring data to fit dynamic species distribution models and quantify the rate of latitudinal range shifts in 32 species of birds native to eastern North America. Since the early 1970s, species that remain in North America throughout the year, including both resident and migratory species, appear to have responded to climate change through both colonization of suitable area at the northern leading edge of their breeding distributions and adaption in place at the southern trailing edges. Neotropical migrants, in contrast, have shown the opposite pattern: contraction at their southern trailing edges and no measurable shifts in their northern leading edges. As a result, the latitudinal distributions of temperate-wintering species have increased while the latitudinal distributions of neotropical migrants have decreased. These results raise important questions about the mechanisms that determine range boundaries of neotropical migrants and suggest that these species may be particularly vulnerable to future climate change. Our results highlight the potential importance of climate change during the nonbreeding season in constraining the response of migratory species to temperature changes at both the trailing and leading edges of their breeding distributions. Future research on the interactions between breeding and nonbreeding climate change is urgently needed.

RevDate: 2020-05-26

Treptow TM (2020)

[Impact of Corona Crisis on European Climate Change Policy].

Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949), 100(5):364-366.

The actual Corona crisis has a negative impact on the economic situation of the affected economies. This has direct consequences for the EU-wide trading of greenhouse gas emission allowances, which is an important building block of European climate change policy. In contrast, although there is an expected short-term decrease in the volume of greenhouse gas emissions due to the emerging economic recession, we should also expect lower prices of emission allowances in the mid to long term, which will make current production technologies more attractive. One important goal of European climate change policy - changing existing manufacturing technologies to less greenhouse gas emitting alternatives - will become even more difficult.

RevDate: 2020-05-26

Ginbo T, Di Corato L, R Hoffmann (2020)

Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.

RevDate: 2020-05-25

Venäläinen A, Lehtonen I, Laapas M, et al (2020)

Climate change induces multiple risks to boreal forests and forestry in Finland: a literature review.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change induces multiple abiotic and biotic risks to forests and forestry. Risks in different spatial and temporal scales must be considered to ensure preconditions for sustainable multifunctional management of forests for different ecosystem services. For this purpose, the present review article summarizes the most recent findings on major abiotic and biotic risks to boreal forests in Finland under the current and changing climate, with the focus on windstorms, heavy snow loading, drought and forest fires, and major insect pests and pathogens of trees. In general, the forest growth is projected to increase mainly in northern Finland. In the south, the growing conditions may become suboptimal, particularly for Norway spruce. Although the wind climate does not change remarkably, wind damage risk will increase especially in the south, because of the shortening of the soil frost period. The risk of snow damage is anticipated to increase in the north and decrease in the south. Increasing drought in summer will boost the risk of large-scale forest fires. Also, the warmer climate increases the risk of bark beetle outbreaks and the wood decay by Heterobasidion root rot in coniferous forests. The probability of detrimental cascading events, such as those caused by a large-scale wind damage followed by a widespread bark beetle outbreak, will increase remarkably in the future. Therefore, the simultaneous consideration of the biotic and abiotic risks is essential.

RevDate: 2020-05-24

Patruno C, Nisticò SP, Fabbrocini G, et al (2020)

Is climate change the next pandemic for dermatology? Lessons from COVID-19.

RevDate: 2020-05-23

López-Ballesteros A, Senent-Aparicio J, Martínez C, et al (2020)

Assessment of future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in the Aracthos River basin (NW Greece).

The Science of the total environment, 733:139299 pii:S0048-9697(20)32816-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a worldwide reality with significant effects on hydrological processes. It has already produce alterations in streamflow regime and is expected to continue in the future. To counteract the climate change impact, a better understanding of its effects is necessary. Hydrological models in combination with Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) suppose an up-to-date approach to analyze in detail the impacts of climate change on rivers. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers (IAHRIS) software were successfully applied in Aracthos River basin, an agricultural watershed located in the north-western area of Greece. Statistical indices showed an acceptable performance of the SWAT model in both calibration (R2 = 0.74, NSE = 0.54, PBIAS = 17.06%) and validation (R2 = 0.64, NSE = 0.36, PBIAS = 12.31%) periods on a daily basis. To assess the future hydrologic alteration due to climate change in Aracthos River basin, five Global Climate Models (GFDL-ESM2, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) were selected and analyzed under two different emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for a long-term period (2070-2099). Results indicate that precipitation and flow is expected to be reduced and maximum and minimum temperature to be increased, compared to the historical period (1970-1999). IHA, obtained from IAHRIS software, revealed that flow regime can undergo a severe alteration, mainly on droughts that are expected to be more significant and longer. All these future hydrologic alterations could have negative consequences on the Aracthos River and its surroundings. The increase of droughts duration in combination with the reduction of flows and the alteration of seasonality can affect the resilience of riverine species and it can produce the loss of hydraulic and environmental diversity. Therefore, this study provides a useful tool for decision makers to develop strategies against the impact of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-23

Abbas S (2020)

Climate change and cotton production: an empirical investigation of Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-09222-0 [Epub ahead of print].

This study investigates the relationship between climate change, the area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, and cotton production in Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. The existence and nature of the short-term and long-term relationships are explored by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bounds testing approach. The estimated result of the ARDL bounds testing approach has shown the presence of cointegration between dependent and explanatory variables. The long-term estimates have revealed that the increasing average temperature has a positive insignificant effect, which implies that rising temperature is not increasing cotton yield in Pakistan. The findings of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption have revealed significant positive effects in both the long run and short run. This study urges Pakistan to reduce the pace of climate changes and increase water conservation by planting forests and constructing dams across major rivers along with the adoption of environmentally friendly production techniques and inputs.

RevDate: 2020-05-23

Theodoridis S, Fordham DA, Brown SC, et al (2020)

Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals.

Nature communications, 11(1):2557 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-16449-5.

Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity, ranging from intraspecific genetic diversity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing biodiversity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific diversity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic diversity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific diversity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of biodiversity.

RevDate: 2020-05-23

Kemper KJ, RA Etzel (2020)

Addressing climate change: Academic pediatricians' personal and professional actions.

Complementary therapies in medicine, 50:102386.

RevDate: 2020-05-23

McDonnell TC, Reinds GJ, Wamelink GWW, et al (2020)

Threshold effects of air pollution and climate change on understory plant communities at forested sites in the eastern United States.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 262:114351.

Forest understory plant communities in the eastern United States are often diverse and are potentially sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen caused by air pollution. In recent years, empirical and processed-based mathematical models have been developed to investigate such changes in plant communities. In the study reported here, a robust set of understory vegetation response functions (expressed as version 2 of the Probability of Occurrence of Plant Species model for the United States [US-PROPS v2]) was developed based on observations of forest understory and grassland plant species presence/absence and associated abiotic characteristics derived from spatial datasets. Improvements to the US-PROPS model, relative to version 1, were mostly focused on inclusion of additional input data, development of custom species-level input datasets, and implementation of methods to address uncertainty. We investigated the application of US-PROPS v2 to evaluate the potential impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, and climate change on forest ecosystems at three forested sites located in New Hampshire, Virginia, and Tennessee in the eastern United States. Species-level N and S critical loads (CLs) were determined under ambient deposition at all three modeled sites. The lowest species-level CLs of N deposition at each site were between 2 and 11 kg N/ha/yr. Similarly, the lowest CLs of S deposition, based on the predicted soil pH response, were less than 2 kg S/ha/yr among the three sites. Critical load exceedance was found at all three model sites. The New Hampshire site included the largest percentage of species in exceedance. Simulated warming air temperature typically resulted in lower maximum occurrence probability, which contributed to lower CLs of N and S deposition. The US-PROPS v2 model, together with the PROPS-CLF model to derive CL functions, can be used to develop site-specific CLs for understory plants within broad regions of the United States. This study demonstrates that species-level CLs of N and S deposition are spatially variable according to the climate, light availability, and soil characteristics at a given location. Although the species niche models generally performed well in predicting occurrence probability, there remains uncertainty with respect to the accuracy of reported CLs. As such, the specific CLs reported here should be considered as preliminary estimates.

RevDate: 2020-05-22

Armitage R, LB Nellums (2020)

Water, climate change, and COVID-19: prioritising those in water-stressed settings.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(5):e175.

RevDate: 2020-05-22

Herrero M, P Thornton (2020)

What can COVID-19 teach us about responding to climate change?.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(5):e174.

RevDate: 2020-05-22

Mausio K, Miura T, NK Lincoln (2020)

Cultivation potential projections of breadfruit (Artocarpus altilis) under climate change scenarios using an empirically validated suitability model calibrated in Hawai'i.

PloS one, 15(5):e0228552 pii:PONE-D-19-26938.

Humanity faces significant challenges to agriculture and human nutrition, and changes in climate are predicted to make such challenges greater in the future. Neglected and underutilized crops may play a role in mitigating and addressing such challenges. Breadfruit is a long-lived tree crop that is a nutritious, carbohydrate-rich staple, which is a priority crop in this regard. A fuzzy-set modeling approach was applied, refined, and validated for breadfruit to determine its current and future potential productivity. Hawai'i was used as a model system, with over 1,200 naturalized trees utilized to calibrate a habitat suitability model and 56 producer sites used to validate the model. The parameters were then applied globally on 17 global climate models at the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 global climate projections for 2070. Overall, breadfruit suitability increases in area and in quality, with larger increases occurring in the RCP 8.5 projection. Current producing regions largely remain unchanged in both projections, indicating relative stability of production potential in current growing regions. Breadfruit, and other tropical indigenous food crops present strong opportunities for cultivation and food security risk management strategies moving forward.

RevDate: 2020-05-21

Liu H, Huang B, C Yang (2020)

Assessing the coordination between economic growth and urban climate change in China from 2000 to 2015.

The Science of the total environment, 732:139283 pii:S0048-9697(20)32800-X [Epub ahead of print].

The balance between economic growth and environmental protection has been a critical concern for sustainable urban development. However, among the multiple research efforts exploring the coordination between the two aspects, the widespread urban climate change has rarely been considered. This study encompasses urban climate change into the cross-system coupling analysis framework to assess its coordination with economic growth using the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model. The two aspects are respectively represented using indicators of Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Specifically, China is selected as case study, and a total of 259 cities from the 2000-2015 period are analyzed. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD are investigated through time series clustering to uncover its performance under diversified economic and climatic contexts. The regional inequality and spatial agglomeration effects are also examined. Results reveal significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity of CCD. Geographically, CCD varies from uncoordinated to high-level coordination. Wealthier cities in the eastern coastal region are significantly better coordinated than their inland counterparts. Temporally, the uptrend of CCD is not significant for most cities due to the relatively insufficient emphasis on urban heat island (UHI) mitigation in previous efforts. Evident spatial inequality and agglomeration patterns are also observed with slight downtrends. The spatio-temporal patterns of CCD revealed in this study indicate great necessity for the central government to develop policies suiting cities' special characteristics and contexts, and more efforts should be targeted on reducing regional imbalance. Hence, a nation-city-community policy skeleton is last outlined to enhance the pursuit of a more climate-friendly urban environment under rapid economic development. Overall, this study advances the understanding of economy-urban climate interactions and facilitates the future pursuit of better sustainable cities. The proposed workflow can be utilized for other countries with diversified urbanization processes and potentially used for comparison among different countries.

RevDate: 2020-05-21

Jin S (2020)

COVID-19, Climate Change, and Renewable Energy Research: We Are All in This Together, and the Time to Act Is Now.

ACS energy letters, 5(5):1709-1711.

RevDate: 2020-05-21

Sarkar S, R Maity (2020)

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation in the context of climate change.

MethodsX, 7:100904 pii:100904.

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum depth of precipitation at a location for a given duration that is meteorologically possible. It is a crucial information for any water infrastructure, such as dams, culverts, drainage network in order to ensure a desirable probability of exceedance. This paper proposes a technique for estimation of PMP, suitable in the context of climate change. Out of several available methods, Hershfield method is considered as a convenient and effective statistical method of PMP estimation, provided sufficiently long precipitation records are available. The most crucial step in Hershfield method is the precise estimation of frequency factor (K) and its enveloping technique. There is no universally accepted enveloping technique of K. Different values of K and different types of enveloping techniques have been suggested and used by various investigators across the world. We introduce an upgradation in the existing enveloping technique in order to bring clarity and universality in the estimation, particularly in the context of climate change. This updated enveloping technique and the conventional Hershfield method-both are applied to develop PMP maps for the entire Indian mainland over the past century (1901-2000). Comparison between the proposed and existing methods of PMP estimation reveals a better estimation of spatio-temporal variation of PMP, avoiding unusual overestimation of PMP in the low rainfall extreme regions of India by existing Hershfield method. In brief, the contributions of this paper are as follows:•An upgradation of the existing Hershfield Method [1] by introducing a new enveloping technique for the frequency factor (K).•The single envelope curve in the existing Hershfield method is modified as a composite curve, consisting of a straight-line portion and an exponentially decaying portion.•Development of PMP maps over India using both Hershfield method and the proposed technique.

RevDate: 2020-05-21

Vellingiri S, Dutta P, Singh S, et al (2020)

Combating Climate Change-induced Heat Stress: Assessing Cool Roofs and Its Impact on the Indoor Ambient Temperature of the Households in the Urban Slums of Ahmedabad.

Indian journal of occupational and environmental medicine, 24(1):25-29.

Background: The rising global temperature and frequent heatwaves are the adverse effects of climate change. The causalities and ill impacts of the heat stress were higher among the slum dwellers because of the vulnerable household structures, which were made by heat-trapping materials like tin sheets, cement sheet (asbestos), plastic, and tarpaulin. The houses are not only dwellings but also a source of livelihood for many slum dwellers as they are involved in home-based work. The increase in the temperature of more than 40°C severely affects health and increases energy expenditures.

Objective: The present study conducted to identify the efficient cool roof technologies that reduce indoor temperature of the households and improve the heat resilience of dwellings located in the urban slums of Ahmedabad.

Methodology: The performances of cool roof interventions were compared with the nonintervention - roof types, namely, tin, asbestos/cement sheet, and concrete. Relative humidity/temperature data loggers (Lascar EL-USB-2-LCD, Sweden) were used to measure the indoor ambient temperature and humidity. The questionnaire-based survey also has been conducted to understand the socioeconomic status and the perceptions related to roofing and health.

Results: The results revealed that selected cool roof technologies including Thermocol insulation, solar reflective white paint on the outer surface of the roof, and Modroof are effectively reducing the indoor temperature as compared to the nonintervention roofing.

Conclusion: Cool roof technologies have a wider scope as number of informal settlements are increasing across the cities in India and other developing countries. The governments may not able to provide proper housing to all these inhabitants due to various reasons including the land tenure of the habitats. Validated cool roof technologies can be promoted as these structures are not requires legal sanctions and easily dismantled and installed in multiple places and safeguards the investment of urban poor.

RevDate: 2020-05-20

Skole K, N Mahpour (2020)

Additional Thoughts on "How Can Individuals and the GI Community Reduce Climate Change".

RevDate: 2020-05-20

Delorme H, Gonzalez Holguera J, Niwa N, et al (2020)

[Co-benefits of health promotion on global warming - The example of food and mobility].

Revue medicale suisse, 16(694):1049-1055.

Global warming is considered by most scientists as one of the greatest public health threats of the 21st century. Some individual behaviours and consumption habits related to the food and mobility sectors are responsible for a high amount of CO2 emissions, the main greenhouse gas. Thus, some messages promoted by health professionals will have an impact on the fight against the epidemic of lifestyle-related chronic diseases but will also have an environmental co-benefit. With a population increasingly aware of current environmental issues, environmental considerations could be an additional motivating factor for patients when promoting a healthier diet or physical activity.

RevDate: 2020-05-20

Ferrari M, Benvenuti L, Rossi L, et al (2020)

Could Dietary Goals and Climate Change Mitigation Be Achieved Through Optimized Diet? The Experience of Modeling the National Food Consumption Data in Italy.

Frontiers in nutrition, 7:48.

Objective: The aim of this study is to define a healthy and sustainable diet model with low GHGE, fulfilling dietary requirements, and considering current Italian food consumption patterns. Design: A duly designed database was developed, linking food nutritional composition and GHGE based on 921 food items consumed in Italy according to the last national food consumption survey (INRAN-SCAI 2005-2006). Linear programming was used to develop new diet plans separately for males and females, aged 18-60 years (n = 2,098 subjects), in order to minimize GHGE. The program is based on dietary goals and acceptability constraints as well as on 13 nutrient requirement constraints aiming to reach a healthy and acceptable diet for the Italian population. Results: Diet optimization resulted in a nutritionally adequate pattern minimizing GHGE values (4.0 vs. 1.9 kg CO2e/day for males and 3.2 vs. 1.6 kg CO2e/day for females). In both sexes, the nutrient intake of the optimized diet was at the established lower bound for cholesterol and calcium and at the established upper bound for free sugar and fiber. In males, intake of zinc was at the established lower bound whereas iron was at the established upper bound. Consumption of red meat and fruit and vegetables was at the established lower and upper bound, respectively, in both males and females. Despite the decrease in meat consumption, especially red meat, in the optimized diet with respect to the observed diet, levels of iron intake in females increased by 10% (10.3 vs. 11.3 mg/day) but remained below the adequate intake established in Italian national DRIs. Conclusions: An attainable healthy dietary pattern was developed that would lead to the reduction of GHGE by 48% for males and by 50% for females with respect to current food consumption in the Italian adult population. Health-promoting dietary patterns can substantially contribute to achieve related Sustainable Development Goals.

RevDate: 2020-05-20

Overpeck JT, B Udall (2020)

Climate change and the aridification of North America.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2006323117 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-05-20

Pinkerton KE, Felt E, HE Riden (2019)

Editorial: Extreme Weather Resulting from Global Warming is an Emerging Threat to Farmworker Health and Safety.

Journal of agricultural safety and health, 25(4):189-190.

A warming climate has been linked to an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, including heat and cold waves, extreme precipitation, and wildfires. This increase in extreme weather results in increased risks to the health and safety of farmworkers.

RevDate: 2020-05-20

Joy A, Dunshea FR, Leury BJ, et al (2020)

Resilience of Small Ruminants to Climate Change and Increased Environmental Temperature: A Review.

Animals : an open access journal from MDPI, 10(5): pii:ani10050867.

Climate change is a major global threat to the sustainability of livestock systems. Climatic factors such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, direct and indirect solar radiation and wind speed influence feed and water availability, fodder quality and disease occurrence, with production being most efficient in optimal environmental conditions. Among these climatic variables, ambient temperature fluctuations have the most impact on livestock production and animal welfare. Continuous exposure of the animals to heat stress compromises growth, milk and meat production and reproduction. The capacity of an animal to mitigate effects of increased environmental temperature, without progressing into stress response, differs within and between species. Comparatively, small ruminants are better adapted to hot environments than large ruminants and have better ability to survive, produce and reproduce in harsh climatic regions. Nevertheless, the physiological and behavioral changes in response to hot environments affect small ruminant production. It has been found that tropical breeds are more adaptive to hot climates than high-producing temperate breeds. The growing body of knowledge on the negative impact of heat stress on small ruminant production and welfare will assist in the development of suitable strategies to mitigate heat stress. Selection of thermotolerant breeds, through identification of genetic traits for adaption to extreme environmental conditions (high temperature, feed scarcity, water scarcity), is a viable strategy to combat climate change and minimize the impact on small ruminant production and welfare. This review highlights such adaption within and among different breeds of small ruminants challenged by heat stress.

RevDate: 2020-05-19

Booth L, Fleming K, Abad J, et al (2020)

Simulating synergies between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction stakeholders to improve management of transboundary disasters in Europe.

International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR pii:101668 [Epub ahead of print].

Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters.

RevDate: 2020-05-19

Eftaiha AF, Qaroush AK, Alsayyed AW, et al (2020)

The eternal battle to combat global warming: (thio)urea as a CO2 wet scrubbing agent.

Physical chemistry chemical physics : PCCP [Epub ahead of print].

(Thio)Urea scaffolds are best known for their importance as intermediates in organic synthesis. In this work, a mechanistic study of the reaction between urea (U), (2-hydroxyethyl)urea (U-EtOH) and thiourea (tU)/NaH in DMSO with CO2 was carried out. While both U/tU reacted with CO2 via a 1 : 2 mechanism through the formation of the keto (thio)carbamide-carboxylate adducts (k-U/tU-CO2- Na+), U-EtOH gave mixed CO2-adducts composed of organic carbonate and carbamide-carboxylate moieties (Na+-CO2-U-Et-OCO2- Na+). Moreover, we recorded for the first time, a new type of bond, namely sodium carbamimidothiocarbonate (e-tU-SCO2- Na+), upon bubbling CO2 in the DMSO solution of tU due to the persistence of the enol form (e-tU) and the better nucleophilicity of sulfur over nitrogen focal points. The reaction mechanisms were proven by 1D and 2D nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and ex situ attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopies. The stability of these bonds was studied following the changes in 1H-NMR as a function of temperature, which indicated the reversibility of these reactions. Furthermore, the proposed mechanisms were explored theoretically via density functional theory (DFT) calculations by analyzing the energetics of the anticipated products.

RevDate: 2020-05-19

Tuno N, Phong TV, M Takagi (2020)

Climate Change May Restrict the Predation Efficiency of Mesocyclops aspericornis (Copepoda: Cyclopidae) on Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae.

Insects, 11(5): pii:insects11050307.

(1) Dengue is the most spread mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, and vector control is the only available means to suppress its prevalence, since no effective treatment or vaccine has been developed. A biological control program using copepods that feed on mosquito larvae has been practiced in Vietnam and some other countries, but the application of copepods was not always successful. (2) To understand why the utility of copepods varies, we evaluated the predation efficiency of a copepod species (Mesocyclops aspericornis) on a vector species (Aedes aegypti) by laboratory experiments under different temperatures, nutrition and prey-density conditions. (3) We found that copepod predation reduced intraspecific competition among Aedes larvae and then shortened the survivor's aquatic life and increased their pupal weight. In addition, the predatory efficiency of copepods was reduced at high temperatures. Furthermore, performance of copepod offspring fell when the density of mosquito larvae was high, probably because mosquito larvae had adverse effects on copepod growth through competition for food resources. (4) These results suggest that the increase in mosquitoes will not be suppressed solely by the application of copepods if the density of mosquito larvae is high or ambient temperature is high. We need to consider additional control methods in order to maintain the efficiency of copepods to suppress mosquito increase.

RevDate: 2020-05-18

Nogueira LM, Yabroff KR, A Bernstein (2020)

Climate change and cancer.

CA: a cancer journal for clinicians [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-05-18

Ottenburghs J, M Bosse (2020)

Digest: Climate change and agricultural intensification influence the strength and direction of natural selection in tree swallows.

How does environmental heterogeneity affect natural selection on tree swallow nestlings? Houle et al. (2020) show that more precipitation and higher temperatures result in stronger selection on body mass and wing length and that agricultural intensity can affect the direction of selection. These findings raise the question of how genetic diversity changes under strong selection pressures, which will be especially important under ongoing agriculture intensification and climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-05-17

Jinga P, J Palagi (2020)

Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(6):372 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08342-x.

It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.

RevDate: 2020-05-17

Zeydalinejad N, Nassery HR, Shakiba A, et al (2020)

Prediction of the karstic spring flow rates under climate change by climatic variables based on the artificial neural network: a case study of Iran.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(6):375 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08332-z.

Few studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for a region with no pumping well. Indeed, the uncertainty of pumping wells may undesirably influence the results. Therefore, a region without any pumping well was selected to assess the impact of climate change on the karstic spring flow rates. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was used to extract the climatic variables for the present (1961-1990) and future (2021-2050) time periods by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in Lali region, southwest Iran. Although this dataset has been already verified, its output was evaluated for Lali region. Then, the impact of climate change on the discharge of Bibitarkhoun karstic spring was examined by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). In this regard, if considering the daily data, ANN is not trained satisfactorily, because of the spring's lag time response to the precipitation; if monthly time step is considered, the data would not be adequate. Therefore, the average of some previous days was considered to calculate the variables. The average precipitation is 344, 329, and 324 mm/year and the average temperature is 14.18, 15.98, and 16.3 °C both for the present, future time period under RCP4.5 and future time period under RCP8.5, respectively. The network selected demonstrated no climate change impact on the average of spring discharge. However, the discharge increased by about + 8% in spring and summer and decreased by about - 7% in autumn and winter in the future time period.

RevDate: 2020-05-17

Araya A, Prasad PVV, Zambreski Z, et al (2020)

Spatial analysis of the impact of climate change factors and adaptation strategies on productivity of wheat in Ethiopia.

The Science of the total environment, 731:139094 pii:S0048-9697(20)32611-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Wheat production is expected to be challenged by future climate change. However, it is unclear how wheat grown in diverse agroecologies will respond to climate change and adaptation management strategies. A geospatial simulation study was conducted to understand the impacts of climate change and adaptation management strategies on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Ethiopia. Simulation results showed that the average long-term baseline (1980-2005) wheat yield ranged from 1593 to 3356 kg/ha. This wheat yield range is within the national average (2100-2700 kg/ha) for this decade. In regions with cooler temperatures (<21 °C), mid-century temperatures and elevated CO2, along with increased N fertilizer slightly improved attainable yield levels above 3000 kg/ha. Whereas, in regions with heat and drought conditions wheat yield declined regardless the increase of N or CO2 levels. Wheat yield increased at a diminishing rate with increase in N fertilizer rate. However, N fertilizer did not increase yields under low rainfall conditions. Two to five irrigation per season contributed to yield improvement for low rainfall locations, while yield did not substantially improve for locations receiving adequate seasonal rainfall. Therefore, based on this study, improved N fertilizer application in combination with increased CO2 could improve wheat yield under future climate in most wheat producing regions (with adequate rainfall) of Ethiopia. Our results provide valuable information regarding impacts of climate change factors and adaptation strategies for producers, researchers, extension professionals and policy makers.

RevDate: 2020-05-17

Cao B, Bai C, Xue Y, et al (2020)

Wetlands rise and fall: Six endangered wetland species showed different patterns of habitat shift under future climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 731:138518 pii:S0048-9697(20)32031-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Degradation and loss of species' suitable habitats in response to global warming are well documented, which are assumed to be affected by increasing temperature. Conversely, habitat increase of species is little reported and is often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. In this study, we first revealed the climate-change-driven habitat shifts of six endangered wetland plants - Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Carex doniana, Glyptostrobus pensilis, Leersia hexandra, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Pedicularis longiflora. The current and future potential habitats of the six species in China were predicted using a maximum entropy model based on thirty-year occurrence records and climate monitoring (from 1960 to 1990). Furthermore, we observed the change of real habitats of the six species based on eight-year field observations (from 2011 to 2019). We found that the six species exhibited three different patterns of habitat shifts including decrease, unstable, and increase. The analysis on the main decisive environmental factors showed that these patterns of habitat shifts are counter to what would be expected global warming but are mostly determined by precipitation-related environmental factors rather than temperature. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of combining multiple environmental factors including temperature and precipitation for understanding plant responses to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-16

Linares C, Martinez GS, Kendrovski V, et al (2020)

A new integrative perspective on early warning systems for health in the context of climate change.

Environmental research, 187:109623 pii:S0013-9351(20)30516-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change causes or aggravates a wide range of exposures with multiple impacts on health, both direct and indirect. Early warning systems have been established to act on the risks posed by these exposures, permitting the timely activation of action plans to minimize health effects. These plans are usually activated individually. Although they show good results from the point of view of minimizing health impacts, such as in the case of high temperature plans, they commonly fail to address the synergies across various climate-related or climate-aggravated exposures. Since several of those exposures tend to occur concurrently, failure to integrate them in prevention efforts could affect their effectiveness and reach. Thus, there is a need to carry out an integrative approach for the multiple effects that climate change has on population health. This article presents a proposal for how these plans should be articulated. The proposed integrated plan would consist of four phases. The first phase, based on early warning systems, would be the activation of different existing individual plans related to the health effects that can be caused by certain circumstances and when possible corrective measures would be implemented. The second phase would attempt to quantify the health impact foreseen by the event in terms of the different health indicators selected. The third phase would be to activate measures to minimize the impact on health, via population alerts and advisories, and additional social and health services, based on the provisions in phase two. Phase four would be related to epidemiological surveillance that permits evaluation of the effects of activating the plan. We believe that this integrative approach should be extended to all of the public health interventions related to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-16

Thapliyal G, Vemanna RS, Pawar PM, et al (2020)

First record of off-season flowering in Populus deltoides from India: paradigm of climate change indicator.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01915-y [Epub ahead of print].

Populus deltoides is a fast-growing woody species possessing plethora of industrial applications. This species evolutionarily developed unisexual male and female catkin inflorescence on separate trees. Flowering usually occurs during early spring before the development of foliage, where buds appear near axils or at the extending shoots. In 2019, surveys were undertaken to study the flowering pattern of P. deltoides in the states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in northern India. Interestingly, an anomalous flowering behaviour (appearance of off-season male catkins during autumn, i.e. October) was observed in a plantation trial at Kapurthala, Punjab. The male catkins were 2.7-3.1 ± 0.07 cm long and 0.3-0.5 ± 0.03 cm wide, which is significant for flowering and liberation of pollen grains. Preliminary results suggested that climatic factors, such as episodes of high or low temperature and the precipitation variation forcing the tree species to behave differently. Unearthing the climate-driven off-season flowering in other tree species alluded the stimulation of phytohormones, such as gibberellic and salicylic acid concentrations influencing the flowering time, therefore, needs further investigation in case of P. deltoides. Overall, this work provides early clues of changing climatic scenario altering the flowering pattern of a tropical forestry tree species.

RevDate: 2020-05-16

Schreiner-McGraw AP, Vivoni ER, Ajami H, et al (2020)

Woody Plant Encroachment has a Larger Impact than Climate Change on Dryland Water Budgets.

Scientific reports, 10(1):8112 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-65094-x.

Woody plant encroachment (WPE) into grasslands is a global phenomenon that is associated with land degradation via xerification, which replaces grasses with shrubs and bare soil patches. It remains uncertain how the global processes of WPE and climate change may combine to impact water availability for ecosystems. Using a process-based model constrained by watershed observations, our results suggest that both xerification and climate change augment groundwater recharge by increasing channel transmission losses at the expense of plant available water. Conversion from grasslands to shrublands without creating additional bare soil, however, reduces transmission losses. Model simulations considering both WPE and climate change are used to assess their relative roles in a late 21st century condition. Results indicate that changes in focused channel recharge are determined primarily by the WPE pathway. As a result, WPE should be given consideration when assessing the vulnerability of groundwater aquifers to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-15

Cuena-Lombraña A, Porceddu M, Dettori CA, et al (2020)

Predicting the consequences of global warming on Gentiana lutea germination at the edge of its distributional and ecological range.

PeerJ, 8:e8894 pii:8894.

Background: Temperature is the main environmental factor controlling seed germination; it determines both the percentage and the rate of germination. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global mean surface temperature could increase of approximately 2-4 °C by 2090-2099. As a consequence of global warming, the period of snow cover is decreasing on several mountain areas. Thermal time approach can be used to characterise the seed germination of plants and to evaluate the germination behaviour under the climate change scenarios. In this study, the effect of different cold stratification periods on seed dormancy release and germination of Gentiana lutea subsp. lutea, a taxon listed in Annex V of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), was evaluated. Furthermore, the thermal requirements and the consequences of the temperature rise for seed germination of this species were estimated. In addition, a conceptual representation of the thermal time approach is presented.

Methods: Seeds of G. lutea subsp. lutea were harvested from at least 50 randomly selected plants in two representative localities of the Gennargentu massif (Sardinia). Germination tests were carried out under laboratory conditions and the responses at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 °C were recorded. Different cold stratification pre-treatments at 1 ± 1 °C (i.e. 0, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days) were applied. Successively, the base temperature (Tb) and the number of thermal units (θ, °Cd) for germination were estimated. Additionally, this study examined the consequences of an increase in temperatures based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RPC) scenarios.

Results: The results indicated that from 0 to 30 days of cold stratification, the germination was null or very low. After 60 and 90 days of cold stratification the seed dormancy was removed; however, 25 and 30 °C negatively affected the germination capacity of non-dormant seeds. Seeds cold-stratified for 90 days showed a lower Tb than those stratified for 60 days. However, 60 and 90 days of cold stratification did not cause great variations in the thermal time units. Analysing the RPC scenarios, we detected that the number of days useful for dormancy release of seeds of G. lutea may be less than 30 days, a condition that does not permit an effective dormancy release.

Conclusions: We conclude that seeds of G. lutea need at least 60 days of cold stratification to remove dormancy and promote the germination. The thermal time model developed in this work allowed us to identify the thermal threshold requirements of seed germination of this species, increasing the knowledge of a plant threatened by global warming. Our results emphasise the need for further studies aiming at a better characterisation of germination efficiency, especially for species that require cold stratification. This would improve the knowledge on the germination mechanisms of adaptation to different future global warming conditions.

RevDate: 2020-05-15

Egbebiyi TS, Crespo O, Lennard C, et al (2020)

Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa.

PeerJ, 8:e8851 pii:8851.

West African rainfed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global warming is projected to result in higher regional warming and have a strong impact on agriculture. This study specifically examines the impact of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5°, 2° and 3 °C relative to 1971-2000 on crop suitability over West Africa. We used 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 Global Climate Models (CMIP5 GCMs) downscaled by Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Rossby Centre's regional Atmospheric model version 4, RCA4, to drive Ecocrop, a crop suitability model, for pearl millet, cassava, groundnut, cowpea, maize and plantain. The results show Ecocrop simulated crop suitability spatial representation with higher suitability, observed to the south of latitude 14°N and lower suitability to its north for 1971-2000 for all crops except for plantain (12°N). The model also simulates the best three planting months within the growing season from September-August over the past climate. Projected changes in crop suitability under the three GWLs 1.5-3.0 °C suggest a spatial suitability expansion for legume and cereal crops, notably in the central southern Sahel zone; root and tuber and plantain in the central Guinea-Savanna zone. In contrast, projected decreases in the crop suitability index value are predicted to the south of 14°N for cereals, root and tuber crops; nevertheless, the areas remain suitable for the crops. A delay of between 1-3 months is projected over the region during the planting month under the three GWLs for legumes, pearl millet and plantain. A two month delay in planting is projected in the south, notably over the Guinea and central Savanna zone with earlier planting of about three months in the Savanna-Sahel zones. The effect of GWL2.0 and GWL3.0 warming in comparison to GWL1.5 °C are more dramatic on cereals and root and tuber crops, especially cassava. All the projected changes in simulated crop suitability in response to climatic variables are statistically significant at 99% confidence level. There is also an increasing trend in the projected crop suitability change across the three warming except for cowpea. This study has implications for improving the resilience of crop production to climate changes, and more broadly, to food security in West Africa.

RevDate: 2020-05-15

Morton A (2019)

How Australia's election will decide its role in climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-15

Costa S, Coppola F, Pretti C, et al (2020)

Biochemical and physiological responses of two clam species to Triclosan combined with climate change scenario.

The Science of the total environment, 724:138143.

Ocean acidification and warming are among the man-induced factors that most likely impact aquatic wildlife worldwide. Besides effects caused by temperature rise and lowered pH conditions, chemicals of current use can also adversely affect aquatic organisms. Both climate change and emerging pollutants, including toxic impacts in marine invertebrates, have been investigated in recent years. However, less information is available on the combined effects of these physical and chemical stressors that, in nature, occur simultaneously. Thus, this study contrasts the effects caused by the antimicrobial agent and plastic additive, Triclosan (TCS) in the related clams Ruditapes philippinarum (invasive) and Ruditapes decussatus (native) and evaluates if the impacts are influenced by combined temperature and pH modifications. Organisms were acclimated for 30 days at two conditions (control: 17 °C; pH 8.1 and climate change scenario: 21 °C, pH 7.7) in the absence of the drug (experimental period I) followed by a 7 days exposure under the same water physical parameters but either in absence (unexposed) or presence of TCS at 1 μg/L (experimental period II). Biochemical responses covering metabolic, oxidative defences and damage-related biomarkers were contrasted in clams at the end of experimental period II. The overall picture showed a well-marked antioxidant activation and higher TCS bioaccumulation of the drug under the forecasted climate scenario despite a reduction on respiration rate and unaltered metabolism in the exposed clams. Since clams are highly consumed shellfish, the consequences for higher tissue bioaccumulation of anthropogenic chemicals to final consumers should be alerted not only at present conditions but more significantly under predicted climatic conditions for humans but also for other components of the marine trophic chain.

RevDate: 2020-05-14

Ewbank C, Stewart B, Bruns B, et al (2020)

The Development of a Surgical Care and Climate Change Matrix: A Tool to Assist With Prioritization and Implementation Strategies.

Annals of surgery [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-05-13

Bein T, Karagiannidis C, Gründling M, et al (2020)

[New challenges for intensive care medicine due to climate change and global warming].

Der Anaesthesist pii:10.1007/s00101-020-00783-w [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: In the last five decades a continuous increase in the average global temperature has been recorded. Furthermore, natural disasters (e.g. heat waves, severe storms, floods and large forest fires) are becoming more frequent. The impact of global warming and climate change on health involves an increase in respiratory, cardiovascular, renal and cognitive mental diseases. Furthermore, a change in the frequency and patterns of infectious diseases can also be observed in Europe.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: This article presents the most important studies that investigated diseases associated with the climate change, with special reference to those that represent a challenge for intensive care medicine.

RESULTS: Currently available epidemiological data and statistical extrapolations indicate that diseases resulting from the climate change (acute infection-related respiratory and intestinal diseases, exacerbation of pre-existing pulmonary lesions, heat-related dehydration, cerebral insults and myocardial infarction) are relevant for intensive care medicine. Particular emphasis is placed on a significant increase in acute kidney damage during heat waves. A previously unknown pattern of infectious diseases necessitates new knowledge and targeted management. In some studies, persisting mental impairments were registered during heat waves and natural disasters, e.g. posttraumatic stress disorder.

CONCLUSION: Intensive care medicine must be prepared for the challenges due to global warming and climate change. Slow but continuous changes (e.g. rise in temperature) as well as acute changes (e.g. heat waves and natural disasters) will induce an increased need for intensive medical care services (e.g. an increase in the need for renal replacement procedures). Intensive care physicians will need to be familiar with the diagnostics and management of diseases associated with the climate change. An initiative of the specialist societies involved would be welcomed.

RevDate: 2020-05-13

Mousavi A, Ardalan A, Takian A, et al (2020)

Climate change and health in Iran: a narrative review.

Journal of environmental health science & engineering, 18(1):367-378 pii:462.

Background: The consequences of climate change are highly impeding the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) anywhere, especially in low and middle-income countries. While climate change scales up, its health-related risks increase, which in turn leads to cause new challenges for public health. As a second largest country of the Eastern Mediterranean Region of World Health Organization, Iran is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Purpose: This study seeks the notion of health risks and challenges of climate change in Iran and provide potential evidence-based remedies to prevent and diminish such destructive effects.

Methods: A comprehensive literature in various computerized databases was conducted, and numerous published original research and review articles about climate change status and evidences of adverse health consequences of climate change in Iran were reviewed.

Results: The evidence suggests that the expected health challenges related to climate change in Iran are: rising temperatures; frequent extreme weather events; reduction of air quality; food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases; mental health and well-being consequences; and the increasing trend of natural disasters and deaths associated with climatological hazards.

Conclusions: By considering the growing burden of diseases associated with climate variability in Iran as well as the interdisciplinary nature of climate change and health issues, an integrated, multi-sectoral, and comprehensive approach for identification, prioritization, and implementation of adaptation options is required by Ministry of Health and Medical Education as a custodian of public health in order to enhance the resiliency and adaption against adverse health effects of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-05-13

Denholm J (2020)

Seasonality, climate change and tuberculosis: new data and old lessons.

The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, 24(5):469.

RevDate: 2020-05-12

Grünig M, Mazzi D, Calanca P, et al (2020)

Crop and forest pest metawebs shift towards increased linkage and suitability overlap under climate change.

Communications biology, 3(1):233 pii:10.1038/s42003-020-0962-9.

Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.

RevDate: 2020-05-12

Alexander M (2020)

Pandemics, climate change, and disability related to SCI.

Spinal cord series and cases, 6(1):36 pii:10.1038/s41394-020-0285-6.

RevDate: 2020-05-12

Lorenzo MN, I Alvarez (2020)

Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021-2050.

The Science of the total environment, 723:138024.

This work presents an analysis of the climate change scenarios in some extreme precipitation indices over Spain using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Change projections of precipitation are evaluated for the near future (2021-2050) relatively to a reference past climate (1971-2000). Projections of annual precipitation show a general decrease in almost the whole region except over the central area where positive changes are detected due to a significant increase in winter. For consecutive wet days, an annual decrease is also projected over the country attributable to a significant decrease mainly observed in spring and to a lesser extent in winter. On the other hand, consecutive dry days are projected to be higher overall as a result of significant increases in spring, summer and autumn. Positive changes are also projected for the maximum daily precipitation during winter and autumn.

RevDate: 2020-05-11

Adedoyin F, Ozturk I, Abubakar I, et al (2020)

Structural breaks in CO2 emissions: Are they caused by climate change protests or other factors?.

Journal of environmental management, 266:110628.

In recent times, there has been increase in climate change protest across the globe. However, whether decrease in emissions is connected with climate change protest or not is yet to be documented in the literature. Consequently, the aim of this study is to fill this gap by examining ex-post detection of how climate change protests and its interconnectedness with CO2 emissions. Using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test, we estimate the number of breaks as well as the date of such structural breaks in CO2 emissions series for 41 countries. Our aim is to match the date of the climate change protests to those of the structural breaks. We observe that climate change protests are fairly consistent with the dates of breaks in Europe and Asia, but not in BRICS economies or US, Canada and other countries. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the energy industry related to the modelling and correct allocation of positive shocks in CO2 emissions to climate change protests.

RevDate: 2020-05-11

O'Kane G (2020)

Climate change and rural health.

The Australian journal of rural health, 28(2):186.

RevDate: 2020-05-11

Jones M, Mills D, R Gray (2020)

Expecting the unexpected? Improving rural health in the era of bushfires, novel coronavirus and climate change.

The Australian journal of rural health, 28(2):107-109.

RevDate: 2020-05-10

Dominguez-Rodriguez A, Rodríguez S, D Hernández-Vaquero (2020)

Air pollution is intimately linked to global climate change: change in Cardiovascular Disease Statistics 2019.

European heart journal pii:5835484 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-05-10

Santos C, Imteaz MA, Ghisi E, et al (2020)

The effect of climate change on domestic Rainwater Harvesting.

The Science of the total environment, 729:138967 pii:S0048-9697(20)32484-0 [Epub ahead of print].

One of the main strategies that are being applied to improve the efficiency of water consumption in buildings is the use of non-potable water for pavement washing, toilet flushing, irrigation, and others. According to several guidelines, the design and assessment of a Rainwater Harvesting System (RWHS) should be made using recent official records of precipitation. However, there is not an indication whether historical or future projections should be used, leaving space for the designer to choose. This article presents the study of RWHS in southern Europe, namely in Portugal, considering two case studies (a dwelling in Oporto and an apartment in Vila Real). The main goal was to explore the impacts that climate change will have on these systems and, for that purpose, a daily simulation using future rainfall data was performed for both cases considering two scenarios: RCP 4.5 which is more optimistic, and RCP 8.5 which is more pessimistic. The RWHS in Oporto showed a better performance in the future decades, comparing with simulations based on recent decades, for both scenarios. However, the savings will not have a significant variation (less than 5 €/year). In the future, this system will provide around 47 (±2.4) m3 of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 66 (±3.3) €/year. Vila Real case study also revealed a slight improvement of the system's efficiency in the future decades but the results for rainwater collected and used are so similar to the recent ones that it can be concluded that the performance will be sustained. This system will provide around 50 (±2.5) m3 of rainwater per year to the selected non-potable purposes, leading to savings of around 200 (±10.2) €/year. It can be concluded that there will be no significant changes in RWHS performance in the future, in the studied areas.

RevDate: 2020-05-10

Pilecco GE, Chantigny MH, Weiler DA, et al (2020)

Greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential from biofuel cropping systems fertilized with mineral and organic nitrogen sources.

The Science of the total environment, 729:138767 pii:S0048-9697(20)32284-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Non-legume bioenergy crops can be fertilized with animal manures instead of mineral fertilizers, but the simultaneous application of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) with manures can increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. On the other hand, manure could increase soil organic C stocks and partly offset greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming potential (GWP) of crop systems. We performed a two-year study in a biofuel cropping system with sunflower and canola to examine the effects of manure fertilization on grain yields and N use efficiency of crops, and on GWP and GHG intensity (GHGI) in no-till soils under subtropical conditions. The GWP and GHGI were calculated from measured methane (CH4) and N2O emissions and soil organic C stock change, and from estimated carbon dioxide emissions associated with agricultural inputs and farm operations. The following treatments were tested: (i) mineral fertilizer (MF); (ii) poultry manure (PM); (iii) pig deep-litter (PDL); and (iv) no-N control. The application rate of each treatment was adjusted to provide 60 kg available N ha-1 to crops. Grain yield and N accumulated by sunflower and canola were greater in fertilized treatments than in the control, and did not differ among N sources. However, crop N use efficiency was on average 50% lower with manures than MF. CH4 emissions were not affected by N sources, but N2O emissions increased as follows: control (1.37) < MF (2.04) < PDL (4.12) < PM (4.95 kg N ha-1). On the other hand, soil organic C stocks increased more rapidly with manures than MF, resulting in significantly lower GWP and GHGI with manures than MF after two years. These results indicate that animal manures can replace MF as the main source of N to non-legume oil crops and reduce net GHG emissions in biofuel cropping systems under subtropical conditions.

RevDate: 2020-05-10

Ren Z, Zagortchev L, Ma J, et al (2020)

Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming.

BMC ecology, 20(1):28 pii:10.1186/s12898-020-00295-6.

BACKGROUND: The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter.

RESULTS: The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37 °C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25,000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 2000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960-1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 increased by 0.0875 million km2; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960-1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5-1 decreased by 0.0759 million km2. The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km2.

CONCLUSION: Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis.

RevDate: 2020-05-09

Aydogan EL, Budich O, Hardt M, et al (2020)

Global warming shifts the composition of the abundant bacterial phyllosphere microbiota as indicated by a cultivation dependent and independent study of the grassland phyllosphere of a long-term warming field-experiment.

FEMS microbiology ecology pii:5835220 [Epub ahead of print].

The leaf colonizing bacterial microbiota was studied in a long-term warming experiment of a permanent grassland, which had been continuously exposed to increased surface temperate (+2°C) for more than six years. Two abundant plant species, Arrhenatherum elatius and Galium album, were studied. Surface warming reduced stomata opening and changed leaf metabolite profiles. Leaf surface colonization and the concentration of leaf-associated bacterial cells were not affected. However, bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplicon Illumina sequencing showed significant temperature effects on the plant species-specific phyllosphere microbiota. Warming partially affected the concentrations of cultured bacteria and had a significant effect on the composition of most abundant cultured plant species-specific bacteria. The abundance of Sphingomonas spp. was significantly reduced. Sphingomonas spp. isolates from warmed plots represented different phylotypes, had different physiological traits, and were better adapted to higher temperatures. Among Methylobacterium spp., a novel phylotype with a specific mxaF-type was cultured from plants of warmed plots while the most abundant phylotype cultured from control plots was strongly reduced. This study clearly showed a correlation of long-term surface warming with changes of the plant physiology and the development of a physiologically and genetically adapted phyllosphere microbiota.

RevDate: 2020-05-09

Coates SJ, Andersen LK, MD Boos (2020)

Balancing public health and private wealth: lessons on climate inaction from the COVID-19 pandemic - a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee.

International journal of dermatology [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-05-09

Leite C, Oliveira V, Miranda I, et al (2020)

Cork oak and climate change: Disentangling drought effects on cork chemical composition.

Scientific reports, 10(1):7800 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-64650-9.

Climate change induces in the Mediterranean region more frequent and extreme events, namely, heat waves and droughts, disturbing forest species and affecting their productivity and product quality. The cork oak (Quercus suber) is present along the western Mediterranean basin and its outer bark (cork) is sustainably collected and used for several products, mainly wine bottle stoppers. Since most cork properties arise from its chemical composition, this research studies the effect of drought on cork chemical composition (suberin, lignin, polysaccharides and extractives) and on polysaccharide and suberin monomeric composition. Three sets of cork samples, from the same site, were examined: in one set the cork grew without drought; in another two drought events occurred during cork growth and in the third one drought event happened. The results show that, in general, drought does not affect the proportion of the main components of cork, the monomers of suberin or of polysaccharides, with few exceptions e.g. drought increased ethanol extractives and xylose in polysaccharides and decreased arabinose in polysaccharides. The variability associated to the tree is much more relevant than the effect of drought conditions and affects all the parameters analyzed. Therefore, our research suggests that the tree genetic information, or its expression, plays a much more important role on the chemical composition of cork than the drought conditions occurring during cork growth. In practical terms, the potential increased occurrence of droughts arising from climatic changes will not compromise the performance of cork as a sealant for wine bottles.

RevDate: 2020-05-09

Sweileh WM (2020)

Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on climate change and human health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.

Globalization and health, 16(1):44 pii:10.1186/s12992-020-00576-1.

BACKGROUND: Assessing research activity is important for planning future protective and adaptive policies. The objective of the current study was to assess research activity on climate change and health with an emphasis on infectious diseases.

METHOD: A bibliometric method was applied using SciVerse Scopus. Documents on climate change and human health were called "health-related literature" while documents on climate change and infectious diseases were called "infection-related literature". The study period was from 1980 to 2019.

RESULTS: The search query found 4247 documents in the health-related literature and 1207 in the infection-related literature. The growth of publications showed a steep increase after 2007. There were four research themes in the health-related literature: (1) climate change and infectious diseases; (2) climate change, public health and food security; (3) heat waves, mortality, and non-communicable diseases; and (4) climate change, air pollution, allergy, and respiratory health. The most frequently encountered pathogens/infectious diseases in the infection-related literature were malaria and dengue. Documents in infection-related literature had a higher h-index than documents in the health-related literature. The top-cited documents in the health-related literature focused on food security, public health, and infectious diseases while those in infection-related literature focused on water-, vector-, and mosquito-borne diseases. The European region had the highest contribution in health-related literature (n = 1626; 38.3%) and infection-related literature (n = 497; 41.2%). The USA led with 1235 (29.1%) documents in health-related literature and 365 (30.2%) documents in infection-related literature. The Australian National University ranked first in the health-related literature while the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine ranked first in the infection-related literature. International research collaboration was inadequate. Documents published in the Environmental Health Perspectives journal received the highest citations per document. A total of 1416 (33.3%) documents in the health-related literature were funded while 419 (34.7%) documents in the infection-related literature were funded.

CONCLUSION: Research on climate change and human health is on the rise with research on infection-related issues making a good share. International research collaboration should be funded and supported. Future research needs to focus on the impact of climate change on psychosocial, mental, innovations, policies, and preparedness of health systems.

RevDate: 2020-05-08

Prevéy JS, Parker LE, CA Harrington (2020)

Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species.

PloS one, 15(5):e0232537 pii:PONE-D-19-32397.

Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phenology may change under future conditions. Modelling efforts showed extreme minimum temperature, climate moisture deficit, and mean summer precipitation were predictive of climatic suitability across all three species. Future bioclimatic niche models project substantial reductions in habitat suitability across the lower elevation and southern portions of the species' current ranges by the end of the 21st century. Thermal-sum phenology models for these species indicate that flowering and the ripening of fruits and nuts will advance an average of 25 days by the mid-21st century, and 36 days by the late-21st century under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Future changes in the climatic niche and phenology of these important food-producing species may alter trophic relationships, with cascading impacts on regional ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-05-08

Byers EA, Coxon G, Freer J, et al (2020)

Drought and climate change impacts on cooling water shortages and electricity prices in Great Britain.

Nature communications, 11(1):2239 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-16012-2.

The risks of cooling water shortages to thermo-electric power plants are increasingly studied as an important climate risk to the energy sector. Whilst electricity transmission networks reduce the risks during disruptions, more costly plants must provide alternative supplies. Here, we investigate the electricity price impacts of cooling water shortages on Britain's power supplies using a probabilistic spatial risk model of regional climate, hydrological droughts and cooling water shortages, coupled with an economic model of electricity supply, demand and prices. We find that on extreme days (p99), almost 50% (7GWe) of freshwater thermal capacity is unavailable. Annualized cumulative costs on electricity prices range from £29-66m.yr-1 GBP2018, whilst in 20% of cases from £66-95m.yr-1. With climate change, the median annualized impact exceeds £100m.yr-1. The single year impacts of a 1-in-25 year event exceed >£200m, indicating the additional investments justifiable to mitigate the 1st-order economic risks of cooling water shortage during droughts.

RevDate: 2020-05-08
CmpDate: 2020-05-08

Shi X, Sun L, Chen X, et al (2019)

Farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors to climate change in the Loess Plateau, China.

The Science of the total environment, 697:134217.

The impact of climate change is very significant to farmers who depend on natural resources for livelihood. It is essential to have a better understanding of farmers' assessments of the efficacy of adaptive behaviors for formulating appropriate adaptation policies and improving farmers' ability to adapt to climate change. Based on survey data from interviews with farmers in the Loess Plateau, the features of farmers' perceived adaptation efficacy are analyzed. Three multiple linear regression models are used to analyze farmers' perceived efficacy of adaptive behaviors and identify factors influencing those assessments in terms of farmers' demographical and social factors, their perception of climate change, their perception of climate change effects and the average temperature and precipitation from 2005 to 2015 in this area. The results are as follows: (1) Generally, the adaptive behaviors with high perceived adaptation efficacy were used by most respondents. Measures with relatively low perceived adaptation efficacy were not commonly adopted, such as migration, buying insurance, changing planting and harvesting time. (2) The factors affect the perceived efficacy of adaption behavior in decreasing order are as follows: perception of climate change, the average precipitation, and demographical and social factors. Perception of local natural disasters, perception of planting and harvesting time, crop yield and diseases and insect pests caused by climate change were found to affect farmers' adaptation assessments. The key demographical and social factors influencing farmers' assessments were non-farming income, farming income, farmland quantity, gender, the frequency of watching TV and going to the market.

RevDate: 2020-05-06

Shi W, Jiang H, Mao X, et al (2020)

Pollen record of climate change during the last deglaciation from the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

PloS one, 15(5):e0232803 pii:PONE-D-20-00160.

The eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) is a climatically sensitive area affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). A new pollen record from a lacustrine sediment in Mao County shows that the study area was covered mainly by shrubs and herbs during the last deglaciation, indicating open and sparse forest grasslands. Hydrophilous herbs were mainly dominated by Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Myriophyllum, Polygonum and Typha, and they gradually increased from 18.7 to 16.8 ka, suggesting a transition to a more humid climate. This corresponds to climate cooling over the same period. From 16.8 to 14.6 ka, hydrophilous herbs continued to increase, coincident with a general ameliorating trend indicated by δ18O records from East Asia. Between 14.6 and 14.0 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs reached peak in the sequence, corresponding to relatively high δ18O values during this period. From ~14.0 to 12.9 ka, the abundance of hydrophilous herbs decreased significantly. Over the same period, the Greenland ice core shows a decrease in δ18O and low-latitude cave stalagmites in China record an increase in δ18O. This implies that longitudinal temperature gradients increased and drove the southward retreat of the ISM, which in turn drove a continuous decrease in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area. From 12.9 to 11.6 ka, the mean content of hydrophilous herbs decreased to the lowest (8.3%) in the whole sequence, indicating a cold and dry climate in the study area. A positive shift in δ18O records during 11.6-10.6 ka was matched by a significant increase in the abundance of hydrophilous herbs in the study area, indicating a warm and humid climate trending. Hence, the ISM has had a significant impact on the climate of the eastern TP since the onset of deglaciation around ~16.8 ka.

RevDate: 2020-05-06

Pasini A (2020)

[Detection and attribution of the recent global warming: state of the art].

Epidemiologia e prevenzione, 44(1):9-10.

RevDate: 2020-05-06

Marie M, Yirga F, Haile M, et al (2020)

Farmers' choices and factors affecting adoption of climate change adaptation strategies: evidence from northwestern Ethiopia.

Heliyon, 6(4):e03867 pii:e03867.

Climate change is a major environmental and socioeconomic challenge in Ethiopia in recent decades. The study site is one of the climate change prone areas affected by climate variability and extreme events. Therefore, a better understanding of area-specific and adaptation is crucial to develop and implement proper adaptation strategies that can alleviate the adverse effects of climate change. Therefore, this work was aimed to identify determinants of farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation strategies in Gondar Zuria District of northwestern Ethiopia. Primary data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires, observation, and interviews. Besides, the secondary data were also obtained from journal articles, reports, governmental offices, and the internet. The Multinomial and Binary logistic regression models with the help of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) (21th edition) were used to analyze the data. The multinomial logistic regression model was used to estimate the influence of the socioeconomic characteristics of sample households on the farmer's decision to choose climate change adaptation strategies. The result showed that age, gender, family size, farm income, and farm size had a significant influence on the farmers' choice of climate change adaptation strategies. The result also revealed that crop failure, severe soil erosion and shortages of water are major climate change-related problems than others. In order to alleviate these problems, farmers have implemented mixed farming, mixed cropping, early and late planting (changing sowing period), use of drought-resistant crop varieties, application of soil and water conservation techniques, shifting to non-farm income activities and use of irrigation. In contrast, access to climate information, total annual farm income, and market access variables are significant adoption determinants of climate change adaptation strategies by farmers' in the study site. Therefore, we recommend future adaptation-related plans should focus on improving climate change information access, improving market access and enhancing research on the use of rainwater harvesting technology.

RevDate: 2020-05-06

Cheng B, H Li (2020)

Impact of climate change and human activities on economic values produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers in water shortage area of Northwest China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-08963-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and human activities are affecting the ecological health of rivers and the economic value of its ecosystem services. Taking water quantity as the intermediate variable, we proposed a quantitative calculation method for the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. The framework mainly consists of three steps: firstly, we quantitatively determined the changes in the amount of water coming from rivers due to climate change and human activities; secondly, combining the theory of resource and environmental economics to calculate the economic value generated by ecological service functions of rivers; finally, we quantitatively identified and analyzed the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers. Taking Baoji section of Weihe River (BSWR) as an example, we quantitatively analyzed and calculated the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value produced by ecosystem service functions of rivers. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: in recent 52 years, the economic value produced by the ecosystem service functions of rivers decreased by 3.57 billion yuan due to the climate change and human activities; the total economic value has been reduced by an average of 68 million yuan per year. This useful work can not only reveal the impact of climate change and human activities on the economic value of ecosystem services of rivers but also can provide an important basis for the reasonable management model of water resource of ecosystem of rivers watershed.

RevDate: 2020-05-06

Grefalda LB, Pulhin JM, Tapia MA, et al (2020)

Building institutional resilience in the context of climate change in Aurora, Philippines.

Environmental research, 186:109584 pii:S0013-9351(20)30477-1 [Epub ahead of print].

The role of local government units (LGUs) in disaster resilience is crucial for a hazard-prone country such as the Philippines. Although the country has its own institutional framework on disaster risk reduction, a number of issues limit LGUs' potential to perform its role. This study focused on building institutional resilience of LGUs towards building climate risk resilience in Aurora, Philippines by engaging key actors in the formulation of Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP). The study adopted the shared learning process from the Climate Resilience Framework (CRF) to strengthen partnership and implement capacity building activities, aimed at developing the Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA) and LCCAP beyond compliance. An institutional capacity assessment was administered through a survey involving 87 members of the Technical Working Group (TWG) from eight municipalities and provincial government. Institutional capacity was measured using 70 indicators representing access rights and entitlements, information flows, decision-making processes, application of new knowledge, capacity to anticipate risk, capacity to respond, as well as capacity to recover and change. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Both Spearman Correlation and Cramer's V determined the interrelationship between socio-demographic variables and institutional characteristics. Results revealed that the LGUs performed better in risk response and management. A strong correlation between expertise and position vis-à-vis all resilient institution metrics was also observed, while gender is moderately correlated with all parameters except access rights and entitlements. Three key areas, not adequately articulated in current literature, need to be improved to enhance institutional resilience towards climate and disaster risks, namely: staffing and human resource; access to financial support from other sources; and development of knowledge management systems.

RevDate: 2020-05-05

García-Gómez JC, González AR, Maestre MJ, et al (2020)

Detect coastal disturbances and climate change effects in coralligenous community through sentinel stations.

PloS one, 15(5):e0231641 pii:PONE-D-19-25987.

This study was implemented to assess the Sessile Bioindicators in Permanent Quadrats (SBPQ) underwater environmental alert method. The SBPQ is a non-invasive and low-cost protocol; it uses sessile target species (indicators) to detect environmental alterations (natural or anthropic) at either the local or global (i.e., climate change) scale and the intrusion of invasive species. The SBPQ focuses on the monitoring of preselected sessile and sensitive benthic species associated with rocky coralligenous habitats using permanent quadrats in underwater sentinel stations. The selected target species have been well documented as bioindicators that disappear in the absence of environmental stability. However, whether these species are good indicators of stability or, in contrast, suffer variations in long-term coverage has not been verified. The purpose of this study was to assess the part of the method based on the hypothesis that, over a long temporal series in a highly structured and biodiverse coralligenous assemblage, the cover of sensitive sessile species does not change over time if the environmental stability characterising the habitat is not altered. Over a ten-year period (2005-2014), the sublittoral sessile biota in the Straits of Gibraltar Natural Park on the southern Iberian Peninsula was monitored at a 28 m-deep underwater sentinel stations. Analyses of the coverages of target indicator species (i.e., Paramuricea clavata and Astroides calycularis) together with other accompanying sessile organisms based on the periodic superimposition of gridded images from horizontal and vertical rocky surfaces allowed us to assess the effectiveness of the method. We conclude that no alterations occurred during the study period; only minimal fluctuations in cover were detected, and the method is reliable for detecting biological changes in ecosystems found in other geographical areas containing the chosen indicator species at similar dominance levels.

RevDate: 2020-05-05

Cradock-Henry NA, Connolly J, Blackett P, et al (2020)

Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications.

MethodsX, 7:100893 pii:100893.

New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development. Specifically, the systems methodology:•Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts;•Enhanced stakeholders' understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and•Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.

RevDate: 2020-05-05

Zhang C, Jin J, Kuang F, et al (2020)

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and adaptation behavior in Wushen Banner, China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-09048-w [Epub ahead of print].

A better understanding of farmers' perceptions of and responses to climate change is important for decision-makers to design more effective adaptation policies. This study investigates farmers' perceptions of climate change, actual adaption responses at the farm level, and factors influencing farmers' decisions on climate change adaptation in Wushen Banner, China. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 220 farmers with a random sampling technique. We found that farmers were generally concerned about climate change. Most farmers have adopted adaption measures to address the adverse effects of climate change. Adjusting farming behavior and using financial means were the main adaptation measures used by local farmers. The results revealed that the implementation of adaptation measures was constrained by the lack of technology, shortage of money, and poor infrastructure. The binary logistic regression results showed that farmers' socioeconomic characteristics, such as education, farming experience, and gender, had significant impacts on farmers' decisions to choose adaptation strategies. The regression results also indicated that farmers who believed climate change would affect their health were more willing to choose financial instruments, and farmers who believed climate change would affect their agricultural productions were likely to diversify their livelihoods. The findings provide some critical insights based on local perceptions of climate change and enhance our understanding of cognitive beliefs attached to adaptive responses.

RevDate: 2020-05-05

Louppe V, Leroy B, Herrel A, et al (2020)

The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):7461 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-64502-6.

Invasive alien species represent one of the major factors of global loss of biodiversity and disruption of natural ecosystems. The small Indian mongoose, Urva auropunctata, is considered one of the wild carnivore species with the greatest negative impact on global biodiversity. Understanding of the factors underpinning the species' distribution and potential dispersion in a context of climate change thus appears crucial in the conservation of native ecosystems. Here we modelled the current and future climatically favourable areas for the small Indian mongoose using Ecological Niche Modelling based on data sets filtrated in environmental spaces. Projections from these models show extensive current favourable geographical areas, covering continental and insular regions within tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. Moreover, predictions for 2050 reveal that climate change is likely to expand current favourable areas north of the current favourable spaces, particularly in Eastern Europe. This climate-induced expansion is particularly worrisome given that the species is already spreading in the Balkan region. Our projections suggest that it is very likely that the small Indian mongoose will have an increasing influence on ecosystems and biodiversity in Europe by 2050.

RevDate: 2020-05-04

Lee DS, Fahey DW, Forster PM, et al (2009)

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century.

Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994), 43(22):3520-3537.

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NO x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr-1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000-2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m-2 (23-87 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005-78 mW m-2 (38-139 mW m-2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2-14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7-3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0-4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4-4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.

RevDate: 2020-05-04

Bidleman TF, Andersson A, Haglund P, et al (2020)

Will climate change influence production and environmental pathways of halogenated natural products?.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Thousands of halogenated natural products (HNPs) pervade the terrestrial and marine environment. HNPs are generated by biotic and abiotic processes and range in complexity from low molecular mass natural halocarbons (nHCs, mostly halomethanes and haloethanes) to compounds of higher molecular mass which often contain oxygen and/or nitrogen atoms in addition to halogens (hHNPs). nHCs have a key role in regulating tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, while some hHNPs bioaccumulate and have toxic properties similar those of anthropogenic persistent organic pollutants (CEACs). Both chemical classes have common sources: biosynthesis by marine bacteria, phytoplankton, macroalgae and some invertebrate animals, and both may be similarly impacted by alteration of production and transport pathways in a changing climate. The nHCs scientific community is advanced in investigating sources, atmospheric and oceanic transport, and forecasting climate change impacts through modeling. By contrast, these activities are nascent or non-existent for hHNPs. Goals of this paper are to: 1. Review production, sources, distribution and transport pathways of nHCs and hHNPs through water and air, pointing out areas of commonality. 2. By analogy to nHCs, argue that climate change may alter these factors for hHNPs. 3. Suggest steps to improve linkage between nHCs and hHNPs science to better understand and predict climate change impacts.

RevDate: 2020-05-04

Bernhard GH, Neale RE, Barnes PW, et al (2020)

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2019.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology [Epub ahead of print].

This assessment, by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), one of three Panels informing the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, provides an update, since our previous extensive assessment (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2019, 18, 595-828), of recent findings of current and projected interactive environmental effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, stratospheric ozone, and climate change. These effects include those on human health, air quality, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and materials used in construction and other services. The present update evaluates further evidence of the consequences of human activity on climate change that are altering the exposure of organisms and ecosystems to UV radiation. This in turn reveals the interactive effects of many climate change factors with UV radiation that have implications for the atmosphere, feedbacks, contaminant fate and transport, organismal responses, and many outdoor materials including plastics, wood, and fabrics. The universal ratification of the Montreal Protocol, signed by 197 countries, has led to the regulation and phase-out of chemicals that deplete the stratospheric ozone layer. Although this treaty has had unprecedented success in protecting the ozone layer, and hence all life on Earth from damaging UV radiation, it is also making a substantial contribution to reducing climate warming because many of the chemicals under this treaty are greenhouse gases.

RevDate: 2020-05-04

Li C, H Gu (2020)

Climate change and mortality evolution in China.

Journal of environmental management, 267:110622 pii:S0301-4797(20)30554-5 [Epub ahead of print].

This paper explores the historical relationship between weather fluctuations and mortality evolution in China. Using panel data on the annual provincial mortality rate and daily weather variables for the 1964-2008 period, we applied a dynamic model structure with sufficient controls to estimate the short-term effects of temperature shocks on China's mortality rate. Our main results show that an additional 1 °C rise in average temperature in a given year increases the annual mortality rate by an average of 3.2%. In addition, days with daily average temperatures exceeding 27 °C (30 °C) are associated with an increase in the annual mortality rate of nearly 0.1% (0.2%) or approximately 9,520 (19,040) additional deaths. In contrast, extremely cold days do not have these effects. By applying a hybrid model structure (the long difference approach) to examine the medium-term effects of temperature changes, we find that there is little evidence of overall adaptation to high temperatures when moving from the short term to the medium term. In addition, by introducing interactions between temperatures and potential modifiers such as access to doctors, hospital beds, air conditioning and refrigerators, we determined that only residential air conditioning played an important role in mitigating the temperature-mortality relationship. However, the penetration of air conditioning in China is still relatively low. These findings indicate that climate change could partially explain the historical phenomenon of China's rising mortality rate during the unprecedented economic boom experienced since the 1980s.

RevDate: 2020-05-04

Aboubakri O, Khanjani N, Jahani Y, et al (2020)

Projection of mortality attributed to heat and cold; the impact of climate change in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.

The Science of the total environment, 728:138700 pii:S0048-9697(20)32217-8 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Estimating the effects of climate change on human health can help health policy makers plan for the future. In Iran, there are few studies, about investigating the effects of climate change on mortality. This study aimed to project the effect of low (cold) and high (heat) temperature on mortality in a dry region of Iran, Kerman.

METHODS: Mortality attributed to temperature was projected by estimating the temperature-mortality relation for the observed data, projection of future temperatures by the statistical downscaling model (SDSM), and quantifying the attributable fraction by applying the observed temperature-mortality relation on the projected temperature. Climate change projection was done by three climate scenarios base on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Adaptation was considered by using different minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) and risk reduction approaches. The current decade (2010-19) was considered as the reference period.

RESULTS: All three climate change scenarios, showed that the mean of temperature will rise about 1 °C, by 2050 in Kerman. The number of deaths attributed to heat were obviously higher than cold in all periods. Assuming no adaptation, over 3700 deaths attributed to temperature will happen in each decade (2020s, 2030s and 2040s) in the future, in which over 3000 deaths will be due to heat and over 450 due to cold. In the predictions, as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT) went up, the contribution of heat to mortality slightly decreased, and cold temperature played a more important role. By considering the risk reduction due to adaptation, the contribution of heat in mortality slightly and insignificantly decreased.

CONCLUSION: The results showed that although low temperatures will contribute to temperature-related mortality in the future, but heat will be a stronger risk factor for mortality, especially if adaptation is low.

RevDate: 2020-05-04

Okwala T, Shrestha S, Ghimire S, et al (2020)

Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance and hydrological extremes in Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri river basin, Thailand.

Environmental research, 186:109544 pii:S0013-9351(20)30437-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Among many factors the hydrology of a watershed is mainly influenced by climate and land use change. This study examined the impacts of climate change on water resources and extreme events in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin, Thailand using three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the future streamflow and Extreme Value Type I distribution (EVI) was used to analyze the extreme events under projected climate conditions. The result of this study showed an increase in maximum (1.9 °C/3.6 °C) and minimum (1.6 °C/3.3 °C) temperatures under RCP4.5/8.5 at the end of the 21st century. In addition, projected rainfall is expected to decrease up to 6.8% (8.5%) in 2050s and then increase slowly such that the decrement remains 4.2% (11.0%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) at the end of the century. The rainfall pattern is projected to considerably fluctuate, in particular, a shift in long term average annual peak event from September to August is predicted in 2080s under emission scenario RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). On the other hand, the average annual discharge is expected to increase up to 13.5% (2020s) and 7.6% (2050s) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively with decreasing trend in low flows and increasing trend in high flows. Further analysis on extreme events; strengthened the results from hydrological modeling with an increase in flow volume for the same return period under changed climate conditions. This raises water resources management issues in the Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri River Basin regarding the frequency of flood and drought events in the future calling for proper policy formulation and implementation.

RevDate: 2020-05-02

Eastwood MA (2020)

Global warming and the laws of nature.

QJM : monthly journal of the Association of Physicians pii:5828235 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-05-02

Brice MH, Vissault S, Vieira W, et al (2020)

Moderate disturbances accelerate forest transition dynamics under climate change in the temperate-boreal ecotone of eastern North America.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Several temperate tree species are expected to migrate northward and colonise boreal forests in response to climate change. Tree migrations could lead to transitions in forest types, but these could be influenced by several non-climatic factors, such as disturbances and soil conditions. We analysed over 10,000 forest inventory plots, sampled from 1970 to 2018 in meridional Québec, Canada to identify what environmental conditions promote or prevent regional-scale forest transitions. We used a continuous-time multi-state Markov model to quantify the probabilities of transitions between forest states (temperate, boreal, mixed, pioneer) as a function of climate (mean temperature and climate moisture index during the growing season), soil conditions (pH and drainage) and disturbances (severity levels of natural disturbances and logging). We further investigate how different disturbance types and severities impact forests' short-term transient dynamics and long-term equilibrium using properties of Markov transition matrices. The most common transitions observed during the study period were from mixed to temperate states, as well as from pioneer to boreal forests. In our study, transitions were mainly driven by natural and anthropogenic disturbances and secondarily by climate, whereas soil characteristics exerted relatively minor constraints. While major disturbances only promoted transitions to the pioneer state, moderate disturbances increased the probability of transition from mixed to temperate states. Long-term projections of our model under the current environmental conditions indicate that moderate disturbances would promote a northward shift of the temperate forest. Moreover, disturbances reduced turnover and convergence time for all transitions, thereby accelerating forest dynamics. Contrary to our expectation, mixed to temperate transitions were not driven by temperate tree recruitment but by mortality and growth. Overall, our results suggest that moderate disturbances could catalyse rapid forest transitions and accelerate broad-scale biome shifts.

RevDate: 2020-05-02

Iwamura T, Guzman-Holst A, KA Murray (2020)

Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change.

Nature communications, 11(1):2130 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-16010-4.

Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950-2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2-4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector's global invasion potential.

RevDate: 2020-05-02

Ryan SJ, Lippi CA, F Zermoglio (2020)

Shifting transmission risk for malaria in Africa with climate change: a framework for planning and intervention.

Malaria journal, 19(1):170 pii:10.1186/s12936-020-03224-6.

BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a disease of massive burden in Africa, and the public health resources targeted at surveillance, prevention, control, and intervention comprise large outlays of expense. Malaria transmission is largely constrained by the suitability of the climate for Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasite development. Thus, as climate changes, shifts in geographic locations suitable for transmission, and differing lengths of seasons of suitability will occur, which will require changes in the types and amounts of resources.

METHODS: The shifting geographic risk of malaria transmission was mapped, in context of changing seasonality (i.e. endemic to epidemic, and vice versa), and the number of people affected. A published temperature-dependent model of malaria transmission suitability was applied to continental gridded climate data for multiple future AR5 climate model projections. The resulting outcomes were aligned with programmatic needs to provide summaries at national and regional scales for the African continent. Model outcomes were combined with population projections to estimate the population at risk at three points in the future, 2030, 2050, and 2080, under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).

RESULTS: Estimated geographic shifts in endemic and seasonal suitability for malaria transmission were observed across all future scenarios of climate change. The worst-case regional scenario (RCP8.5) of climate change predicted an additional 75.9 million people at risk from endemic (10-12 months) exposure to malaria transmission in Eastern and Southern Africa by the year 2080, with the greatest population at risk in Eastern Africa. Despite a predominance of reduction in season length, a net gain of 51.3 million additional people is predicted be put at some level of risk in Western Africa by midcentury.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an updated view of potential malaria geographic shifts in Africa under climate change for the more recent climate model projections (AR5), and a tool for aligning findings with programmatic needs at key scales for decision-makers. In describing shifting seasonality, it was possible to capture transitions between endemic and epidemic risk areas, to facilitate the planning for interventions aimed at year-round risk versus anticipatory surveillance and rapid response to potential outbreak locations.

RevDate: 2020-05-01

Demski C, Capstick S, Pidgeon N, et al (2017)

Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses.

Climatic change, 140(2):149-164.

The winter of 2013/2014 saw a series of severe storms hit the UK, leading to widespread flooding, a major emergency response and extensive media exposure. Previous research indicates that experiencing extreme weather events has the potential to heighten engagement with climate change, however the process by which this occurs remains largely unknown, and establishing a clear causal relationship from experience to perceptions is methodologically challenging. The UK winter flooding offered a natural experiment to examine this question in detail. We compare individuals personally affected by flooding (n = 162) to a nationally representative sample (n = 975). We show that direct experience of flooding leads to an overall increased salience of climate change, pronounced emotional responses and greater perceived personal vulnerability and risk perceptions. We also present the first evidence that direct flooding experience can give rise to behavioural intentions beyond individual sustainability actions, including support for mitigation policies, and personal climate adaptation in matters unrelated to the direct experience.

RevDate: 2020-04-30

Ingle HE, M Mikulewicz (2020)

Mental health and climate change: tackling invisible injustice.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(4):e128-e130.

RevDate: 2020-04-30

Rocklöv J, R Dubrow (2020)

Author Correction: Climate change: an enduring challenge for vector-borne disease prevention and control.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-04-30

Lori M, Piton G, Symanczik S, et al (2020)

Compared to conventional, ecological intensive management promotes beneficial proteolytic soil microbial communities for agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change-induced rain regimes.

Scientific reports, 10(1):7296 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-64279-8.

Projected climate change and rainfall variability will affect soil microbial communities, biogeochemical cycling and agriculture. Nitrogen (N) is the most limiting nutrient in agroecosystems and its cycling and availability is highly dependent on microbial driven processes. In agroecosystems, hydrolysis of organic nitrogen (N) is an important step in controlling soil N availability. We analyzed the effect of management (ecological intensive vs. conventional intensive) on N-cycling processes and involved microbial communities under climate change-induced rain regimes. Terrestrial model ecosystems originating from agroecosystems across Europe were subjected to four different rain regimes for 263 days. Using structural equation modelling we identified direct impacts of rain regimes on N-cycling processes, whereas N-related microbial communities were more resistant. In addition to rain regimes, management indirectly affected N-cycling processes via modifications of N-related microbial community composition. Ecological intensive management promoted a beneficial N-related microbial community composition involved in N-cycling processes under climate change-induced rain regimes. Exploratory analyses identified phosphorus-associated litter properties as possible drivers for the observed management effects on N-related microbial community composition. This work provides novel insights into mechanisms controlling agro-ecosystem functioning under climate change.

RevDate: 2020-04-30

Vetter SG, Puskas Z, Bieber C, et al (2020)

How climate change and wildlife management affect population structure in wild boars.

Scientific reports, 10(1):7298 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-64216-9.

Global climate change affects many species and contributes to the exceptional population growth of wild boar populations and thus to increasing human-wildlife conflicts. To investigate the impact of climate change on wild boar populations we extended existing models on population dynamics. We included for the first time different juvenile conditions to account for long-lasting effects of juvenile body mass on adult body mass and reproductive success. Our analysis shows that incorporating phenotypes, like body mass differences within age classes, has strong effects on projected population growth rates, population structures and the relative importance of certain vital rates. Our models indicated that an increase in winter temperatures and food availability will cause a decrease in mean body mass and litter size within Central European wild boar populations. We further analysed different hunting regimes to identify their effects on the population structure as well as their efficiency in limiting population growth. While targeting juveniles had the lowest effect on population structure, such strategies are, however, rather ineffective. In contrast, culling predominantly yearlings seems very effective. Despite being equally effective, only focusing on adults will not result in a reduction of population size due to their low proportion within populations.

RevDate: 2020-04-30

Kusunoki S, Ose T, M Hosaka (2020)

Author Correction: Emergence of unprecedented climate change in projected future precipitation.

Scientific reports, 10(1):7454 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-63945-1.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-04-30

Marcelino J, Silva JP, Gameiro J, et al (2020)

Extreme events are more likely to affect the breeding success of lesser kestrels than average climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):7207 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-64087-0.

Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.

RevDate: 2020-04-29

Meynard CN, Lecoq M, Chapuis MP, et al (2020)

On the relative role of climate change and management in the current Desert Locust outbreak in East Africa.

The current outbreak of the Desert Locust has affected much of eastern Africa and has reached as far as Pakistan and India in Asia, generating significant agricultural losses in a region that is already highly unstable economically, politically, and in terms of food security for its human populations (FAO, 2020). Desert Locust outbreaks require a combination of weather, soil and vegetation conditions that favour the reproduction and aggregation of otherwise solitary individuals (Despland et al., 2000) (Figure 1a). When those conditions appear, locusts aggregate, multiply in large numbers and migrate long distances, turning into a plague and devastating crops on their way.

RevDate: 2020-04-29

Malaspina D, Howell EA, J Spicer (2020)

Intergenerational Echoes of Climate Change.

JAMA psychiatry pii:2764553 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-04-29

Shaffril HAM, Idris K, Sahharon H, et al (2020)

Adaptation towards climate change impacts among highland farmers in Malaysia.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-08987-8 [Epub ahead of print].

This study aims to gain more understanding on highland farmers' adaptation towards the impacts of climate change in Malaysia. Via a multi-stage cluster sampling, this quantitative study has surveyed a total of 400 highland farmers as respondents. The results indicated that the highest climate change-resilient farmers were from Kundasang, specifically among the females, Dusun ethnic group, and those who work side jobs to cover household expenses. Furthermore, recorded factors such as age and years of experience yielded significant negative relationship with adaptation whereas income yielded significant positive relationship with adaptation. The paper concludes with recommendations related to occupational diversification, consistent information disseminations, access to financial assistance, and the need to empower extension officers and local leaders in the hope that a comprehensive approach can help implement any community climate change-adaptation plan.

RevDate: 2020-04-29

Koch S, S Pecher (2020)

[New challenges for anesthesia due to the climate change].

Der Anaesthesist pii:10.1007/s00101-020-00770-1 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: The climate crisis is the most serious threat to global health in the twenty-first century. In western countries 5-10% of all greenhouse gas emissions originate from the healthcare sector and the main contributing factors are energy-intense departments (intensive care units, operating suits and prehospital emergency services).

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this review is to provide background knowledge and practical ideas to achieve climate-neutral hospitals.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Narrative review with information on the topics of (I) volatile anesthetics as greenhouse gases, (II) energy supply in hospitals and (III) solid waste management.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (I) Volatile anesthetics are highly potent greenhouse gases, especially desflurane has a major global warming potential. Total intravenous anesthesia (TIVA) with propofol or regional anesthetic techniques have a much lower impact on the climate. (II) Using sustainable energy sources as well as initiating energy sparing techniques, such as light-emitting diodes (LED) and motion sensors, can reduce CO2 emissions. (III) Waste can be managed by the reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink and research concept. Doctors should actively contribute to reach the climate goals.

RevDate: 2020-04-29

Zhang Z, Yang Z, Fahad S, et al (2020)

A hot-blast warming facility for simulating global warming in low-stature crop systems and its application case to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China.

Plant methods, 16:57 pii:598.

Background: To study the impact of climate warming on crops, it is crucial to have a warming equipment suitable for their field environment. A facility is needed that can provide suitable combinations of different temperatures at reasonable cost for large plots.

Results: Here, an additional field warming facility option named the hot-blast warming facility (HBWF), which comprised heaters, blowers, wind breaks, and a control board was developed. An application case based on HBWF was carried out to assess elevated temperature effects on rice in Central China during 2015 and 2016. We tested four elevated temperature treatments on four rice cultivars under paddy field conditions and measured yield and its components. Heating convection air directly, the facility could increase the temperature of the rice canopy up to 1-2 °C, which could properly simulate global warming. Considering the costs, the HBWF reduced the operating costs because of its relatively lower power consumption (0.164 kW/m2), which was 80% lower than that of Free Air Temperature Increase. Our results demonstrate that the HBWF could build a 25 m2 homogeneous heating area and had little effect on the relative humidity under a paddy field environment. Warming treatments significantly reduced the grain yield by 4.4-22.7% in 2015, and 30.8-61.9% in 2016, compared to the control. The main contribution to the significant decrease of the grain yields was the decrease in seed setting rate. Moreover, a reduction of 1000-grain weight led to the decline in grain yield. The increasing ranges of the temperature simulated by HBWF were stable in different years, however, whether the elevated treatments demonstrated significant difference on rice growth mainly decided by the basic atmospheric temperature (as the control) during the growth period.

Conclusions: The new warming facility is suitable for field trials to assess elevated temperature combinations and provides an extra equipment option for use in elevated temperature research in the future.

RevDate: 2020-04-29

Young JD (2020)

Environmental Amnesia: Climate Change and Medical Education.

Academic medicine : journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges, 95(5):667-668.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )