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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 22 Jan 2020 at 01:48 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2020-01-21

McDermott-Levy R, DM Fick (2020)

Advancing Gerontological Nursing Science in Climate Change.

Research in gerontological nursing, 13(1):6-12.

Older adults have unique health risks related to climate change. This commentary addresses the health impacts of climate change for older adults, identifies gaps in gerontological nursing research, and highlights areas for research to address the significant gap in nursing science. Climate risks of extreme weather events, such as heat, rain, flooding, and wildfires, as well as poor air quality, vector-borne diseases, interruptions of services, and treatment plans all place older adults at risk of experiencing greater morbidity and early mortality. Despite these risks, there is a gap in nursing research related to climate change and aging. Nurse scientists can address this gap with an interdisciplinary approach. There are climate resources and theoretical frameworks to support scientific inquiry. Funding sources must be made available to assure rigorous scholarship of climate-related health impacts for older adults. Gerontological nurse researchers must build capacity to address climate change and health. [Research in Gerontological Nursing, 13(1), 6-12.].

RevDate: 2020-01-21

Kuehn BM (2020)

Climate Change Puts Children at Risk.

JAMA, 323(3):209.

RevDate: 2020-01-21

Kling MM, Auer SL, Comer PJ, et al (2020)

Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Observed ecological responses to climate change are highly individualistic across species and locations, and understanding the drivers of this variability is essential for management and conservation efforts. While it is clear that differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity all contribute to heterogeneity in climate change vulnerability, predicting these features at macroecological scales remains a critical challenge. We explore multiple drivers of heterogeneous vulnerability across the distributions of 96 vegetation types of the ecologically diverse western United States, using data on observed climate trends from 1948-2014 to highlight emerging patterns of change. We ask three novel questions about factors potentially shaping vulnerability across the region: (i) How does sensitivity to different climate variables vary geographically and across vegetation classes? (ii) How do multivariate climate exposure patterns interact with these sensitivities to shape vulnerability patterns? (iii) How different are these vulnerability patterns according to three widely implemented vulnerability paradigms-niche novelty (decline in modeled suitability), temporal novelty (standardized anomaly), and spatial novelty (inbound climate velocity)-each of which uses a distinct frame of reference to quantify climate departure? We propose that considering these three novelty paradigms in combination could help improve our understanding and prediction of heterogeneous climate change responses, and we discuss the distinct climate adaptation strategies connected with different combinations of high and low novelty across the three metrics. Our results reveal a diverse mosaic of climate change vulnerability signatures across the region's plant communities. Each of the above factors contributes strongly to this heterogeneity: multivariate climate change data reveal highly diverse exposure signatures across locations, climate variable sensitivity exhibits clear patterns across vegetation types, and the three novelty paradigms diverge widely in their climate change vulnerability predictions. Together these results shed light on potential drivers of individualistic climate change responses and may help to inform effective management strategies.

RevDate: 2020-01-21

Figueres C (2020)

Paris taught me how to do what is necessary to combat climate change.

Nature, 577(7791):470-471.

RevDate: 2020-01-21

Navarro-Racines C, Tarapues J, Thornton P, et al (2020)

High-resolution and bias-corrected CMIP5 projections for climate change impact assessments.

Scientific data, 7(1):7 pii:10.1038/s41597-019-0343-8.

Projections of climate change are available at coarse scales (70-400 km). But agricultural and species models typically require finer scale climate data to model climate change impacts. Here, we present a global database of future climates developed by applying the delta method -a method for climate model bias correction. We performed a technical evaluation of the bias-correction method using a 'perfect sibling' framework and show that it reduces climate model bias by 50-70%. The data include monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly total precipitation, and a set of bioclimatic indices, and can be used for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity. The data are publicly available in the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC;, as well as in the CCAFS-Climate data portal ( The database has been used up to date in more than 350 studies of ecosystem and agricultural impact assessment.

RevDate: 2020-01-21

Corlett RT, KW Tomlinson (2020)

Climate Change and Edaphic Specialists: Irresistible Force Meets Immovable Object?.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(19)30352-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Species exposed to anthropogenic climate change can acclimate, adapt, move, or be extirpated. It is often assumed that movement will be the dominant response, with populations tracking their climate envelopes in space, but the numerous species restricted to specialized substrates cannot easily move. In warmer regions of the world, such edaphic specialists appear to have accumulated in situ over millions of years, persisting despite climate change by local movements, plastic responses, and genetic adaptation. However, past climates were usually cooler than today and rates of warming slower, while edaphic islands are now exposed to multiple additional threats, including mining. Modeling studies that ignore edaphic constraints on climate change responses may therefore give misleading results for a significant proportion of all taxa.

RevDate: 2020-01-20

Chu H, JZ Yang (2020)

Risk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Epub ahead of print].

Construal-level theory suggests that high-level abstract features weigh more in people's decision-making at farther distance, while low-level concrete features weigh more at closer distance. Based on this, we propose that psychological distance will influence the effect of risk versus efficacy framing on climate change engagement. In particular, risk perception related to the end-state expectancy of climate change mitigation should influence people's climate change engagement at farther distance. In contrast, efficacy perception related to the perceived feasibility of attaining end-state goals should influence engagement at closer distance. Results from an experimental survey based on a national sample that is both demographically and geographically representative (N = 1,282) supported our proposition. At closer spatial distance, perceived efficacy boosted by efficacy framing increased participants' intention to perform climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast, at farther distance, risk framing increased behavioral intention through heightened risk perception. Based on these findings, we suggest that when communicating distant and abstract risks, highlighting their disastrous impacts may better motivate action. In contrast, when communicating impending and concrete risks, stressing the feasibility of action may have stronger motivational potential.

RevDate: 2020-01-20

Ji LT, Zheng TY, Chen Q, et al (2020)

[Responses of potential suitable area of Paris verticillata to climate change and its dominant climate factors].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 31(1):89-96.

Prediction of the potential distribution of species based on the data of its current distribution in combination with climatic variables is important for understanding species evolution and reasonable conservation. Based on 220 distribution sites in China and 12 low-correlation climatic variables, we analyzed the potential distribution of Paris verticillata at present and future (2050s and 2070s) using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS program. Further, we analyzed the dominant driving factors for its geographic distribution. The results showed that the area under the curve indices (AUC) was 0.940, with high prediction accuracy. The potential suitable regions of P. verticillata were mainly distributed in the Greater Xing'an Mountains, the Xiao Xing'an Mountains, the Changbai Mountains, the Qinling-Daba Mountains, Hebei, Shanxi and north Shandong under current climate scenario. Those regions accounted for 18.1% of the total suitable area in the country, of which the highly suitable areas accounted for 7.0% and the lowly suitable area 11.1%. The total suitable areas of P. verticillata in the 2050s and 2070s would decline under the climate change scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5. The highly suitable area would decline, but the lowly suitable area would increase. With the global climate change, both the range and the geometric center of its distribution would gradually spread to higher altitude in the northeast. The cumulative contributions of four dominant factors reached as high as 89.2%, namely, precipitation of wettest month, mean annual temperature, isothermality, and precipitation of January. Their appropriate ranges were 100-275 mm, -0.1-16 ℃, 21-35 and 3-14 mm, respectively.

RevDate: 2020-01-20

Maloney KO, Krause KP, Buchanan C, et al (2020)

Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.

RevDate: 2020-01-20

Ghirardo A, Lindstein F, Koch K, et al (2020)

Origin of volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under global warming.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Warming occurs in the Arctic twice as fast as the global average, which in turn leads to a large enhancement in terpenoid emissions from vegetation. Volatile terpenoids are the main class of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that play crucial roles in atmospheric chemistry and climate. However, the biochemical mechanisms behind the temperature-dependent increase in VOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems are largely unexplored. Using 13 CO2 -labeling, we studied the origin of VOCs and the carbon (C) allocation under global warming in the soil-plant-atmosphere system of contrasting subarctic heath tundra vegetation communities characterized by dwarf shrubs of the genera Salix or Betula. The projected temperature rise of the subarctic summer by 5°C was realistically simulated in sophisticated climate chambers. VOC emissions strongly depended on the plant species composition of the heath tundra. Warming caused increased VOC emissions and significant changes in the pattern of volatiles toward more reactive hydrocarbons. The 13 C was incorporated to varying degrees in different monoterpene and sesquiterpene isomers. We found that de novo monoterpene biosynthesis contributed to 40%-44% (Salix) and 60%-68% (Betula) of total monoterpene emissions under the current climate, and that warming increased the contribution to 50%-58% (Salix) and 87%-95% (Betula). Analyses of above- and belowground 12/13 C showed shifts of C allocation in the plant-soil systems and negative effects of warming on C sequestration by lowering net ecosystem exchange of CO2 and increasing C loss as VOCs. This comprehensive analysis provides the scientific basis for mechanistically understanding the processes controlling terpenoid emissions, required for modeling VOC emissions from terrestrial ecosystems and predicting the future chemistry of the arctic atmosphere. By changing the chemical composition and loads of VOCs into the atmosphere, the current data indicate that global warming in the Arctic may have implications for regional and global climate and for the delicate tundra ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-01-18

Messina NJ, Couture RM, Norton SA, et al (2020)

Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake.

The Science of the total environment, 713:136549 pii:S0048-9697(20)30059-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or windstorms; loss of fish habitat is driven by windstorms, and to a lesser extent an increasing water temperature; and catchment development further leads to water quality decline. All simulations also show that the lake is susceptible to both internal and external P loadings. Simulation of temperature, DO, and P proved to be an effective means for predicting the loss of water quality under changing land-use and climate scenarios.

RevDate: 2020-01-18

Bennett AE, AT Classen (2020)

Climate change influences mycorrhizal fungal-plant interactions, but conclusions are limited by geographical study bias.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is altering the interactions among plants and soil organisms in ways that will alter the structure and function of ecosystems. We reviewed the literature and developed a map of studies focused on how the three most common types of mycorrhizal fungi (arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM), ectomycorrhizal (EcM), and ericoid mycorrhizal (ErM) fungi) respond to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (eCO2), climatic warming, and changes in the distribution of precipitation. Broadly, we ask how do mycorrhizal fungi respond to climate change, how do these responses vary by fungal type, and how do mycorrhizal traits influence plant adaptation, movement, or extinction in response to climatic change? First, we found that 92% of studies were conducted in the northern hemisphere, and plant host, ecosystem type and study location were only correlated with each other in the northern hemisphere because studies across all mycorrhizal fungal types were only common in the northern hemisphere. Second, we show that temperature and rainfall variability had more variable effects than eCO2 on mycorrhizal fungal structures, but these effects were context dependent. Third, while mycorrhizal fungal types vary in their responses to climate change, it appears that warming lead to more variable responses in ectomycorrhizal than in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Finally, we discuss common traits of mycorrhizal fungi that could aid in fungal and plant adaption to climate change. We posit that mycorrhizal fungi can buffer plant hosts against extinction risk, they can facilitate or retard the dispersal success of plants moving away from poor environments, and, by buffering host plants, they can enable host plant adaptation to new climates. All of these influences are, however, context dependent a finding that reflects the complex traits of mycorrhizal fungi as a group, the diversity of plant species they associate with and the variation in ecosystems in which they reside. Overall, while we point out many gaps in our understanding of the influence of climate changes on mycorrhizal fungi, we also highlight the large number of opportunities for researching plant and mycorrhizal fungal responses to and mitigation of climate changes.

RevDate: 2020-01-18

Albouy C, Delattre V, Donati G, et al (2020)

Global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming.

Scientific reports, 10(1):548 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-57280-3.

Although extinctions due to climate change are still uncommon, they might surpass those caused by habitat loss or overexploitation over the next few decades. Among marine megafauna, mammals fulfill key and irreplaceable ecological roles in the ocean, and the collapse of their populations may therefore have irreversible consequences for ecosystem functioning and services. Using a trait-based approach, we assessed the vulnerability of all marine mammals to global warming under high and low greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the middle and the end of the 21st century. We showed that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming. Future conservation plans should therefore focus on these regions, where there are long histories of overexploitation and there are high levels of current threats to marine mammals. Among the most vulnerable marine mammals were several threatened species, such as the North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica) and the dugong (Dugong dugon), that displayed unique combinations of functional traits. Beyond species loss, we showed that the potential extinctions of the marine mammals that were most vulnerable to global warming might induce a disproportionate loss of functional diversity, which may have profound impacts on the future functioning of marine ecosystems worldwide.

RevDate: 2020-01-18

Smith P, A Balmford (2020)

Climate change: 'no get out of jail free card'.

The Veterinary record, 186(2):71.

Pete Smith and Andrew Balmford argue that methane from livestock is an important contributor to climate change and that it should not be creatively discounted.

RevDate: 2020-01-17

Schwanz LE, Georges A, Holleley CE, et al (2020)

Climate change, sex reversal and lability of sex determining systems.

Journal of evolutionary biology [Epub ahead of print].

Sex reversal at high temperatures during embryonic development (e.g. ZZ females) provides the opportunity for new genotypic crosses (e.g. ZZ male x ZZ female). This raises the alarming possibility that climatic warming could lead to the loss of an entire chromosome - one member of the sex chromosome pair (the Y or W) - and the transition of populations to environmental sex determination (ESD). Here we examine the evolutionary dynamics of sex-determining systems exposed to climatic warming using theoretical models. We found that the loss of sex chromosomes is not an inevitable consequence of sex reversal. A large frequency of ZZ sex reversal (50% reversal from male to female) typically divides the outcome between loss of the ZW genotype and the stable persistence of ZZ males, ZW females, and ZZ females. The amount of warming associated with sex chromosome loss depended on several features of wild populations - environmental fluctuation, immigration, heritable variation in temperature sensitivity, and differential fecundity of sex-reversed individuals. Chromosome loss was partially or completely buffered when sex-reversed individuals suffered a reproductive fitness cost, when immigration occurred, or when heritable variation for temperature sensitivity existed. Thus, under certain circumstances, sex chromosomes may persist cryptically in systems where the environment is the predominant influence on sex.

RevDate: 2020-01-17

Menzel A, Yuan Y, Matiu M, et al (2020)

Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971-2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951-2018 in a corresponding dataset, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978-2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for non-woody insect-pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers' decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers' spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers' spring and summer activities were very likely / likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers' activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.

RevDate: 2020-01-17

Fox NJ, P Alldred (2020)

Re-assembling climate change policy: Materialism, posthumanism, and the policy assemblage.

The British journal of sociology [Epub ahead of print].

National and international policy-makers have addressed threats to environmental sustainability from climate change and other environmental degradation for over 30 years. However, it is questionable whether current policies are socially, politically, economically, and scientifically capable of adequately resolving these threats to the planet and living organisms. In this paper we theorize and develop the concept of a "policy assemblage" from within a new materialist ontology, to interrogate critically four policy perspectives on climate change: "liberal environmentalism"; the United Nations policy statements on sustainable development; "green capitalism" (also known as "climate capitalism") and finally "no-growth economics." A materialist analysis of interactions between climate change and policies enables us to establish what each policy can do, what it ignores or omits, and consequently its adequacy to address environmental sustainability in the face of climate change. None, we conclude, is adequate or appropriate to address climate change successfully. We then use this conceptual tool to establish a "posthuman" policy on climate change. Humans, from this perspective, are part of the environment, not separate from or in opposition to it, but possess unique capacities that we suggest are now necessary to address climate change. This ontology supplies the starting point from which to establish sociologically a scientifically, socially, and politically adequate posthuman climate change policy. We offer suggestions for the constituent elements of such a policy.

RevDate: 2020-01-17

Hawkins KE (2020)

Comment on 'Climate change and contraception'.

RevDate: 2020-01-16

Yawson DO, Adu MO, FA Armah (2020)

Impacts of climate change and mitigation policies on malt barley supplies and associated virtual water flows in the UK.

Scientific reports, 10(1):376 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-57256-3.

Barley is a major ingredient for the malting industry which is highly sensitive and vulnerable to malt barley supply. The United Kingdom (UK) has the second highest malting capacity in the EU and the third largest malting industry in the world, supplying malt to major global breweries. Premium whisky, which has both economic and cultural significance for the UK, also makes sustainable malt barley supply critical for the UK. There is paucity of information on the sustainability of future supplies of malt barley in the UK, as much as it is in the world. This study applied a food balance approach to assess the combined effects of climate change and mitigation policies on UK malt barley balances for the 2030s, 2040 s, and 2050 s. Future yields of spring barley were simulated under the low, medium and high emissions scenarios (or LES, MES, and HES, respectively) for the three time slices. Future areas of land for barley production were obtained via land use change simulation in response to climate mitigation policies and aspirations of the UK. Future yields and land areas were combined to obtain total barley production, which served as a basis of supply. Per capita malt barley consumption was combined with future population to obtain demand. The gaps between demand and supply were then assessed. The results show large deficits in malt barley supplies for all combinations of climate change, land use and population, with adverse implications for the malting industry. Total malt barley supplies under current land area for barley and using the 90th percentile yield, ranged from 1899 (LES, 2030s) to 2,437 thousand tonnes (HES, 2050s). The largest supply under climate mitigation land use scenarios ranged from 1,592 (LES, 2030s) to 2,120 thousand tonnes (HES, 2050s). Deficits in supply were observed for all climate mitigation land use scenarios and time slices, ranging from 128 to 585 thousand tonnes at 90th percentile yield. However, surpluses were observed from the 2040s if current land area for barley remains unchanged. Imports to balance the observed deficits would result in large inflows of blue water to the UK, with adverse implications for global freshwater supply and environmental sustainability. It is concluded that even though spring barley yields in the UK could increase under projected climate change, reductions in croplands (due mainly to climate mitigation policies and aspirations) could combine with population growth to undermine the sustainability of malt barley supplies, both nationally and internationally.

RevDate: 2020-01-15

Mihailović DT, Petrić D, Petrović T, et al (2020)

Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.

PloS one, 15(1):e0227679 pii:PONE-D-19-16900.

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.

RevDate: 2020-01-15

Larios E, González EJ, Rosen PC, et al (2020)

Population projections of an endangered cactus suggest little impact of climate change.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-020-04595-y [Epub ahead of print].

Population projections coupled with downscaled climate projections are a powerful tool that allows predicting future population dynamics of vulnerable plants in the face of a changing climate. Traditional approaches used to predict the vulnerability of plants to climate change (e.g. species distribution models) fail to mechanistically describe the basis of a population's dynamics and thus cannot be expected to correctly predict its temporal trends. In this study, we used a 23-year demographic dataset of the acuña cactus, an endangered species, to predict its population dynamics to the end of the century. We used integral projection models to describe its vital rates and population dynamics in relation to plant volume and key climatic variables. We used the resulting climate-driven IPM along with climatic projections to predict the population growth rates from 1991 to 2099. We found the average population growth rate of this population between 1991 and 2013 to be 0.70 (95% CI 0.61-0.79). This result confirms that the population of acuña cactus has been declining and that this decline is due to demographic structure and climate conditions. However, the projection model also predicts that, up to 2080, the population will remain relatively stable mainly due to the survival of its existing adult individuals. Notwithstanding, the long-term viability of the populations can only be achieved through the recruitment of new individuals.

RevDate: 2020-01-15

Steinacker C, Beierkuhnlein C, A Jaeschke (2019)

Assessing the exposure of forest habitat types to projected climate change-Implications for Bavarian protected areas.

Ecology and evolution, 9(24):14417-14429 pii:ECE35877.

Aim: Due to their longevity and structure, forest ecosystems are particularly affected by climate change with consequences for their biodiversity, functioning, and services to mankind. In the European Union (EU), natural and seminatural forests are protected by the Habitats Directive and the Natura 2000 network. This study aimed to assess the exposure of three legally defined forest habitat types to climate change, namely (a) Tilio-Acerion forests of slopes, screes, and ravines (9180*), (b) bog woodlands (91D0*), and (c) alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (91E0*). We analyzed possible changes in their Bavarian distribution, including their potential future coverage by Natura 2000 sites. We hypothesized that protected areas (PAs) with larger elevational ranges will remain suitable for the forests as they allow for altitudinal distribution shifts.

Methods: To estimate changes in range size and coverage by PAs, we combined correlative species distribution models (SDMs) with spatial analyses. Ensembles of SDM-algorithms were applied to two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the HadGEM2-ES model for the period 2061-2080.

Results: Our results revealed that bog woodlands experience the highest range losses (>2/3) and lowest PA coverage (max. 15% of sites with suitable conditions). Tilio-Acerion forests exhibit opposing trends depending on the scenario, while alluvial forests are less exposed to climatic changes. As expected, the impacts of climate change are more pronounced under the "business as usual" scenario (RCP8.5). Additionally, PAs in flat landscapes are more likely to lose environmental suitability for currently established forest habitat types.

Main conclusions: Based on these findings, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 network particularly in consideration of elevational gradients, connectivity, and projected climatic suitability. Nonclimatic stressors on forest ecosystems, especially bog woodlands, should be decreased and climate change mitigation efforts enhanced. We recommend transferring the approach to other habitat types and regions.

RevDate: 2020-01-15

Qui-Minet ZN, Coudret J, Davoult D, et al (2019)

Combined effects of global climate change and nutrient enrichment on the physiology of three temperate maerl species.

Ecology and evolution, 9(24):13787-13807 pii:ECE35802.

Made up of calcareous coralline algae, maerl beds play a major role as ecosystem engineers in coastal areas throughout the world. They undergo strong anthropogenic pressures, which may threaten their survival. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the future of maerl beds in the context of global and local changes. We examined the effects of rising temperatures (+3°C) and ocean acidification (-0.3 pH units) according to temperature and pH projections (i.e., the RCP 8.5 scenario), and nutrient (N and P) availability on three temperate maerl species (Lithothamnion corallioides, Phymatolithon calcareum, and Lithophyllum incrustans) in the laboratory in winter and summer conditions. Physiological rates of primary production, respiration, and calcification were measured on all three species in each treatment and season. The physiological response of maerl to global climate change was species-specific and influenced by seawater nutrient concentrations. Future temperature-pH scenario enhanced maximal gross primary production rates in P. calcareum in winter and in L. corallioides in both seasons. Nevertheless, both species suffered an impairment of light harvesting and photoprotective mechanisms in winter. Calcification rates at ambient light intensity were negatively affected by the future temperature-pH scenario in winter, with net dissolution observed in the dark in L. corallioides and P. calcareum under low nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichment avoided dissolution under future scenarios in winter and had a positive effect on L. incrustans calcification rate in the dark in summer. In winter conditions, maximal calcification rates were enhanced by the future temperature-pH scenario on the three species, but P. calcareum suffered inhibition at high irradiances. In summer conditions, the maximal calcification rate dropped in L. corallioides under the future global climate change scenario, with a potential negative impact on CaCO3 budget for maerl beds in the Bay of Brest where this species is dominant. Our results highlight how local changes in nutrient availability or irradiance levels impact the response of maerl species to global climate change and thus point out how it is important to consider other abiotic parameters in order to develop management policies capable to increase the resilience of maerl beds under the future global climate change scenario.

RevDate: 2020-01-15

Schulz S, Darehshouri S, Hassanzadeh E, et al (2020)

Climate change or irrigated agriculture - what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia.

Scientific reports, 10(1):236 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-57150-y.

Lake Urmia is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth with a unique biodiversity. Over the past two decades the lake water level declined dramatically, threatening the functionality of the lake's ecosystems. There is a controversial debate about the reasons for this decline, with either mismanagement of the water resources, or climatic changes assumed to be the main cause. In this study we quantified the water budget components of Lake Urmia and analyzed their temporal evolution and interplay over the last five decades. With this we can show that variations of Lake Urmia's water level during the analyzed period were mainly triggered by climatic changes. However, under the current climatic conditions agricultural water extraction volumes are significant compared to the remaining surface water inflow volumes. Changes in agricultural water withdrawal would have a significant impact on the lake volume and could either stabilize the lake, or lead to its complete collapse.

RevDate: 2020-01-14

Yan Z, Wu B, Li T, et al (2020)

Eastward shift and extension of ENSO-induced tropical precipitation anomalies under global warming.

Science advances, 6(2):eaax4177 pii:aax4177.

During El Niño events, increased precipitation occurs over the equatorial central eastern Pacific, corresponding to enhanced convective heating that modulates global climate by exciting atmospheric teleconnections. These precipitation anomalies are projected to shift and extend eastward in response to global warming. We show that this predicted change is caused by narrowing of the meridional span of the underlying El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that leads to intensification of the meridional gradient of the SST anomalies, strengthening boundary-layer moisture convergence over the equatorial eastern Pacific, and enhancing local positive precipitation anomalies. The eastward shift and extension of these anomalies also intensify and extend eastward negative precipitation anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific, by strengthening equatorward advection of low mean moist enthalpy. Changes in El Niño-induced tropical precipitation anomalies suggest that, under global warming, El Niño events decay faster after their peak phase, thus shortening their duration.

RevDate: 2020-01-14

Roche KR, Müller-Itten M, Dralle DN, et al (2020)

Climate change and the opportunity cost of conflict.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1914829117 [Epub ahead of print].

A growing empirical literature associates climate anomalies with increased risk of violent conflict. This association has been portrayed as a bellwether of future societal instability as the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are predicted to increase. This paper investigates the theoretical foundation of this claim. A seminal microeconomic model of opportunity costs-a mechanism often thought to drive climate-conflict relationships-is extended by considering realistic changes in the distribution of climate-dependent agricultural income. Results advise caution in using empirical associations between short-run climate anomalies and conflicts to predict the effect of sustained shifts in climate regimes: Although war occurs in bad years, conflict may decrease if agents expect more frequent bad years. Theory suggests a nonmonotonic relation between climate variability and conflict that emerges as agents adapt and adjust their behavior to the new income distribution. We identify 3 measurable statistics of the income distribution that are each unambiguously associated with conflict likelihood. Jointly, these statistics offer a unique signature to distinguish opportunity costs from competing mechanisms that may relate climate anomalies to conflict.

RevDate: 2020-01-14

Wang X, Luo J, Yuan W, et al (2020)

Global warming accelerates uptake of atmospheric mercury in regions experiencing glacier retreat.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1906930117 [Epub ahead of print].

As global climate continues to warm, melting of glaciers releases a large quantity of mercury (Hg) originally locked in ice into the atmosphere and downstream ecosystems. Here, we show an opposite process that captures atmospheric Hg through glacier-to-vegetation succession. Our study using stable isotope techniques at 3 succession sites on the Tibetan Plateau reveals that evolving vegetation serves as an active "pump" to take up gaseous elemental mercury (Hg0) from the atmosphere. The accelerated uptake enriches the Hg pool size in glacier-retreated areas by a factor of ∼10 compared with the original pool size in the glacier. Through an assessment of Hg source-sink relationship observed in documented glacier-retreated areas in the world (7 sites of tundra/steppe succession and 5 sites of forest succession), we estimate that 400 to 600 Mg of Hg has been accumulated in glacier-retreated areas (5‰ of the global land surface) since the Little Ice Age (∼1850). By 2100, an additional ∼300 Mg of Hg will be sequestered from the atmosphere in glacier-retreated regions globally, which is ∼3 times the total Hg mass loss by meltwater efflux (∼95 Mg) in alpine and subpolar glacier regions. The recapturing of atmospheric Hg by vegetation in glacier-retreated areas is not accounted for in current global Hg models. Similar processes are likely to occur in other regions that experience increased vegetation due to climate or land use changes, which need to be considered in the assessment of global Hg cycling.

RevDate: 2020-01-14

Yu P, Xu R, Abramson MJ, et al (2020)

Bushfires in Australia: a serious health emergency under climate change.

The Lancet. Planetary health pii:S2542-5196(19)30267-0 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-14

Butler CD, IC Hanigan (2019)

Anthropogenic climate change and health in the Global South.

The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, 23(12):1243-1252.

This paper explores evidence relevant to the hypothesis that human-generated climate change (global warming) is already, and will increasingly, add to the existing burden of disadvantage experienced by populations in low-income countries, the 'Global South'. Well recognised health manifestations of global warming include from heatwaves and other extreme weather events, changes to infectious disease patterns, and undernutrition, arising from higher food prices, reduced food availability and reduced nutrient concentrations of many foods. These effects have been called 'primary' and 'secondary'. Although these manifestations will have effects globally, their biggest impact on health is and will be upon poor and vulnerable populations in low-income settings. Also well recognised, manual labourers are increasingly vulnerable from excessive heat and humidity. There is less recognition that climate change interacts with social and political determinants of health, contributing to 'tertiary' health consequences including conflict, forced migration and famine. In turn, these effects may deepen poverty traps in the Global South. Human-generated climate change is principally caused by the policies and lifestyles of populations in high-income countries (the Global North). The recent recognition by the British government that climate change is an emergency is encouraging, and may help motivate the widespread global behavioural changes that are needed to reduce the many risks from global warming, including to the people of the South.

RevDate: 2020-01-14

Nah K, Bede-Fazekas Á, Trájer AJ, et al (2020)

The potential impact of climate change on the transmission risk of tick-borne encephalitis in Hungary.

BMC infectious diseases, 20(1):34 pii:10.1186/s12879-019-4734-4.

BACKGROUND: Impact of climate change on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle in a given region depends on how the region-specific climate change patterns influence tick population development processes and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) transmission dynamics involving both systemic and co-feeding transmission routes. Predicting the transmission risk of TBEV in the enzootic cycle with projected climate conditions is essential for planning public health interventions including vaccination programs to mitigate the TBE incidence in the inhabitants and travelers. We have previously developed and validated a mathematical model for retroactive analysis of weather fluctuation on TBE prevalence in Hungary, and we aim to show in this research that this model provides an effective tool for projecting TBEV transmission risk in the enzootic cycle.

METHODS: Using the established model of TBEV transmission and the climate predictions of the Vas county in western Hungary in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, we quantify the risk of TBEV transmission using a series of summative indices - the basic reproduction number, the duration of infestation, the stage-specific tick densities, and the accumulated (tick) infections due to co-feeding transmission. We also measure the significance of co-feeding transmission by observing the cumulative number of new transmissions through the non-systemic transmission route.

RESULTS: The transmission potential and the risk in the study site are expected to increase along with the increase of the temperature in 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This increase will be facilitated by the expected extension of the tick questing season and the increase of the numbers of susceptible ticks (larval and nymphal) and the number of infected nymphal ticks co-feeding on the same hosts, leading to compounded increase of infections through the non-systemic transmission.

CONCLUSIONS: The developed mathematical model provides an effective tool for predicting TBE prevalence in the tick-host enzootic cycle, by integrating climate projection with emerging knowledge about the region-specific tick ecological and pathogen enzootic processes (through model parametrization fitting to historical data). Model projects increasing co-feeding transmission and prevalence of TBEV in a recognized TBE endemic region, so human risk of TBEV infection is likely increasing unless public health interventions are enhanced.

RevDate: 2020-01-13

Cong J, Gao C, Han D, et al (2020)

Stability of the permafrost peatlands carbon pool under climate change and wildfires during the last 150 years in the northern Great Khingan Mountains, China.

The Science of the total environment, 712:136476 pii:S0048-9697(19)36472-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Peatlands store one-third of the total global soil carbon (C.) despite covering only 3-4% of the global land surface. Most peatlands are distributed in mid-high latitude regions and are even in permafrost regions, are sensitive to climate change and are disturbed by wildfire. Although several studies have focused on the impact of historical climate change and regional human activities on the C. accumulation process in these peatlands, the impact of these factors on the stability of the C. pool remains poorly understood. Here, based on the 210Pb age-depth model, we investigated the historical variations of C. stability during the last 150 years for five typical peatlands in the northern Great Khingan Mountains (Northeast China), an area located in a permafrost region that is sensitive to climate change and to wildfires, which have clearly increased due to regional human activities. The results showed that low C. accumulation rates (CARs) and weakly C. stability in studied peatlands before 1900. While, the increasing anthropogenic wildfire frequency and the residual products (e.g. pyrogenic carbon) increased the CARs and C. stability in peatlands from 1900 to 1980. The mean July temperature is the most important climate factor for peatlands C. stability. After 1980, due to the low wildfire frequencies influenced by human policies, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation not only increased the CARs but also markedly increased the C. stability of the peatlands C. pool in the northern Great Khingan Mountains, especially after 2000.

RevDate: 2020-01-13

Bhandari D, Bi P, Sherchand JB, et al (2020)

Climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal: Are the available prerequisites supportive enough to researchers?.

Acta tropica pii:S0001-706X(19)31699-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Although Nepal has been identified as a country highly vulnerable to adverse health and socioeconomic impacts arising from climate change, extant research on climate sensitive infectious diseases has yet to develop the evidence base to adequately address these threats. In this opinion paper we identify and characterise basic requirements that are hindering the progress of climate change and infectious disease research in Nepal. Our opinion is that immediate attention should be given to strengthening Nepal's public health surveillance system, promoting inter-sectoral collaboration, improving public health capacity, and enhancing community engagement in disease surveillance. Moreover, we advocate for greater technical support of public health researchers, and data sharing among data custodians and epidemiologists/researchers, to generate salient evidence to guide relevant public health policy formulation aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change on human health in Nepal. International studies on climate variability and infectious diseases have clearly demonstrated that climate sensitive diseases, namely vector-borne and food/water-borne diseases, are sensitive to climate variation and climate change. This research has driven the development and implementation of climate-based early warning systems for preventing potential outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases across many European and African countries. Similarly, we postulate that Nepal would greatly benefit from a climate-based early warning system, which would assist in identification or prediction of conditions suitable for disease emergence and facilitate a timely response to reduce mortality and morbidity during epidemics.

RevDate: 2020-01-13

Pacheco SE (2020)

Catastrophic effects of climate change on children's health start before birth.

The Journal of clinical investigation pii:135005 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-13

Payen S, Falconer S, Carlson B, et al (2019)

Eutrophication and climate change impacts of a case study of New Zealand beef to the European market.

The Science of the total environment, 710:136120 pii:S0048-9697(19)36116-9 [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVE: Beef production in the Lake Taupō region of New Zealand (NZ) is regulated for nitrogen (N) leaching. The objectives of this study were to 1) evaluate the implications of nitrogen emission limitations on eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef through its life cycle to a European market and uniquely link it to 2) estimation of the reduction in these impacts that can be funded by the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for a low environmental-impact product.

METHOD: The cradle-to-market Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of NZ beef on the European market included beef production on farms, meat processing, packaging and transport stages. Various beef production systems in the Lake Taupō region were modelled: farm systems with and without regulated N leaching limits in place (using N fertiliser inputs of 0 and 100 kg N/ha/year respectively) using suckler beef or beef derived from surplus calves from a dairy farm. The FARMAX model was used to model farm productivity and profitability under these various scenarios, whereas the OVERSEER® model was used to model field/farm emissions (N, phosphorus (P)) and the NZ greenhouse gas (GHG) Inventory model was used to estimate total GHG emissions. Eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef to the European market were calculated using recent regionalised LCA indicators. We estimated freshwater and marine eutrophication impacts of European beef using published N emissions to water and air. We estimated the European consumer's WTP for beef with positive environmental attributes based on a meta-regression analysis based on 21 published studies and compared farmer's profit for the farm system scenarios.

RESULTS: When using common P-driven eutrophication indicators, the farms using 100 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year appeared to have a lower freshwater eutrophication impact than farms using no N fertiliser, which is in contradiction with the local freshwater policy for N regulations. When the contribution of both N and P were accounted for, the farms using no N fertiliser had the lowest estimated impact. Comparison with published environmental footprint of beef from Europe showed lower climate change and eutrophication impacts for NZ beef, thus showing potential positive environmental attributes for NZ beef. The European consumer's WTP (32% price premium) for such a beef product with low environmental impacts could offset the cost to farmers for implementing the reduction of N emissions.

CONCLUSIONS: Bridging the gap between local freshwater policy and LCA indicators starts by considering both P and N emissions and impacts. Combining an environmental LCA with an economic analysis revealed that the consumer willingness to pay could compensate for the environmental cost of protecting the lake that currently only the farmers are bearing.

RevDate: 2020-01-11

Rasmus S, Turunen M, Luomaranta A, et al (2019)

Climate change and reindeer management in Finland: Co-analysis of practitioner knowledge and meteorological data for better adaptation.

The Science of the total environment, 710:136229 pii:S0048-9697(19)36225-4 [Epub ahead of print].

We studied interannual variability and changes over time in selected climate indices in the reindeer management area (RMA) in northern Finland. We present together the knowledge possessed by reindeer herders with information from meteorological measurements over three decades. The practitioner knowledge was gathered via a survey questionnaire addressing herder observations of long-term changes (approximately during the past 30 years) in climatic conditions and their impacts on herding during the four seasons. A set of temperature-, precipitation- and snow-related indices relevant for herding within the RMA was derived from spatially interpolated daily meteorological data (1981-2010). Climatic changes detected based on the measurement data were mainly consistent with earlier studies, and practitioner knowledge was generally in line with the meteorological data. The herders had experienced the largest number of changes during the winter, and the smallest number of changes during the summer. The herders reported various impacts of changing seasonal weather on reindeer condition and behavior, and on herding practices. Adaptation to the changing conditions requires adoption of various coping strategies by the herders in their everyday work, continuous development of professional techniques and practices, as well as support received from the governance of reindeer management. We conclude that holistic understanding of the impacts of climate change and adaptation to changes in the future requires simultaneous analyses of data from different sources, more research co-defined with local practitioners, and co-planned governance solutions. The approach presented in this work can ease the dialogue between the local practitioners, researchers and policy makers.

RevDate: 2020-01-11

Laidre KL, Atkinson S, Regehr EV, et al (2020)

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical-capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea-ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 days on land (90 days total in the 2000s compared to the 1990s), a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea-ice breakup and fall sea-ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea-ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 years). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea-ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

RevDate: 2020-01-11

Sarkar MSK, Begum RA, JJ Pereira (2020)

Impacts of climate change on oil palm production in Malaysia.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-07601-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Studies reveal that climate change (CC) has higher negative impacts on agricultural production than positive impacts. Therefore, this article attempts to explore the impacts of CC on oil palm production in Malaysia and provides mitigation and adaptation strategies towards reducing such impacts. The multiple regression analysis is applied to assess the impacts of CC on oil palm production by using time series data in the period of 1980 to 2010. A negative and significant relationship is found between annual average temperature and oil palm production. If temperature rises by 1 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C, production of oil palm can decrease from a range of 10 to 41%. This article has also found a negative impact of sea level rise (SLR) on oil palm production. Findings reveal that if areas under oil palm production decrease by 2%, 4%, and 8% due to SLR of 0.5, 1, and 2 m, oil palm production can decrease by 1.98%, 3.96%, and 7.92%, respectively, indicating that CC has a significant impact on the reduction of oil palm production in Malaysia, ultimately affecting the sustainability of oil palm sector in Malaysia. Finally, this study suggests to practice appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies, including promotion and development of climate resilient varieties, soil and water conservation, afforestation, insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms, emission reduction technology, protection of coastal flooding for reducing the impacts of CC on oil palm production.

RevDate: 2020-01-11

Weizman E, O Levy (2019)

The role of chromatin dynamics under global warming response in the symbiotic coral model Aiptasia.

Communications biology, 2(1):282 pii:10.1038/s42003-019-0543-y.

Extreme weather events frequency and scale are altered due to climate change. Symbiosis between corals and their endosymbiotic-dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) is susceptible to these events and can lead to what is known as bleaching. However, there is evidence for coral adaptive plasticity in the role of epigenetic that have acclimated to high-temperature environments. We have implemented ATAC-seq and RNA-seq to study the cnidarian-dinoflagellate model Exaptasia pallida (Aiptasia) and expose the role of chromatin-dynamics in response to thermal-stress. We have identified 1309 genomic sites that change their accessibility in response to thermal changes. Moreover, apo-symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NFAT, ATF4, GATA3, SOX14, and PAX3 motifs and expressed genes related to immunological pathways. Symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NKx3-1, HNF4A, IRF4 motifs and expressed genes related to oxidative-stress pathways. Our work opens a new path towards understanding thermal-stress gene regulation in association with gene activity and chromatin-dynamics.

RevDate: 2020-01-11

Hackett F, Got T, Kitching GT, et al (2020)

Training Canadian doctors for the health challenges of climate change.

The Lancet. Planetary health pii:S2542-5196(19)30242-6 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-10

Wilson TJB, Cooley SR, Tai TC, et al (2020)

Potential socioeconomic impacts from ocean acidification and climate change effects on Atlantic Canadian fisheries.

PloS one, 15(1):e0226544 pii:PONE-D-18-27026.

Ocean acidification is an emerging consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The full extent of the biological impacts are currently not entirely defined. However, it is expected that invertebrate species that rely on the mineral calcium carbonate will be directly affected. Despite the limited understanding of the full extent of potential impacts and responses there is a need to identify potential pathways for human societies to be affected by ocean acidification. Research on these social implications is a small but developing field. This research contributes to this field by using an impact assessment framework, informed by a biophysical model of future species distributions, to investigate potential impacts facing Atlantic Canadian society from potential changes in shellfish fisheries driven by ocean acidification and climate change. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are expected to see declines in resource accessibility but are relatively socially insulated from these changes. Conversely, Prince Edward Island, along with Newfoundland and Labrador are more socially vulnerable to potential losses in fisheries, but are expected to experience relatively minor net changes in access.

RevDate: 2020-01-10

Ghosh S, Mukhopadhyay J, A Chakraborty (2019)

Clay Mineral and Geochemical Proxies for Intense Climate Change in the Permian Gondwana Rock Record from Eastern India.

Research (Washington, D.C.), 2019:8974075.

The clay mineral assemblages and geochemical compositions of the Permian Talchir and Barakar mudstones of the Raniganj basin, India, have been used to interpret terrestrial paleoclimate. The Talchir Formation presents unequivocal evidences of the Permian global glacial climate, and the overlying Barakar Formation with braided fluvial deposits immediately follows the glacial amelioration stage to a humid warm climate. Sediments unaffected by burial diagenesis and originated from a similar source under contrasting climates are ideal for developing proxies for substantial climate shift. Illite (28.4-63.8%), illite/smectite (0-58.6%, 40-80% illite), chlorite (0-53.9%), and chlorite/smectite (5.6-29.8%) constitute the clay mineral assemblage in the Talchir Formation whereas illite (5.3-78.2%), illite/smectite (trace-34.1%, mostly 60-90% illite), and kaolinite (36.1-86.8%) dominate the clay mineral assemblage in the Barakar Formation. The Talchir mudrocks are enriched in mobile elements and depleted in alumina w.r.t. PAAS, have relatively higher K2O/Al2O3 ratios (~0.3), high ICV (1.12-1.28), and lower CIA values (52.6-65.1) compared to those of the younger Barakar mudstones. The Barakar mudstones are depleted in mobile elements w.r.t. PAAS, have relatively low ICV (0.33-0.62) and K2O/Al2O3 values (0.11-0.16), and higher CIA values (72.9-88.2). Textural, mineralogical immaturity, and rock fragments of different components of the basement seen in the Talchir sandstones show these sediments being a first-cycle sedimentary deposit. The distinctive clay mineral assemblage and major oxide composition of the Talchir mudrocks attest to a unique low intensity chemical weathering in cold arid climate. Significant presence of kaolinite as well as distinctive geochemical characters of the Barakar mudrocks marks a shift in the paleoclimate from cold arid to humid. This climatic shift is further supported by the proportion and composition of illite/smectite across the formations. The relative proportion of chlorite and kaolinite and composition of illite/smectite therefore closely corroborate the significant climate shift, and such proxies, therefore, are useful indicators of climate extremes in the geological record.

RevDate: 2020-01-10

Jessel S, Sawyer S, D Hernández (2019)

Energy, Poverty, and Health in Climate Change: A Comprehensive Review of an Emerging Literature.

Frontiers in public health, 7:357.

Household energy is increasingly vital for maintaining good health. Unaffordable and inadequate household energy presents adverse consequences that are amplified by poverty and a changing climate. To date, the connections between energy, socioeconomic disadvantage, and well-being are generally underappreciated, and household energy connection with climate change is under-researched. Building on the energy insecurity framework, this review explores literature related to household energy, poverty, and health in order to highlight the disproportionate burdens borne by vulnerable populations in adequately meeting household energy needs. This paper is based on a comprehensive review of books, peer-reviewed articles, and reports published between 1990 and 2019, identified via databases including JSTOR and PubMed. A total of 406 publications were selected as having potential for full review, 203 received full review, and 162 were included in this paper on the basis of set inclusion criteria. From the literature review, we created an original heuristic model that describes energy insecurity as either acute or chronic, and we further explore the mediators and pathways that link energy insecurity to health. In the discussion, we posit that the extant literature does not sufficiently consider that vulnerable communities often experience energy insecurity bundled with other hardships. We also discuss energy, poverty, and health through the lens of climate change, making the criticism that most research on household energy does not consider climate change. This evidence is important for enhancing research in this field and developing programmatic and policy interventions as they pertain to energy access, affordability, and health, with special emphasis on vulnerable populations, climate change, and social inequality.

RevDate: 2020-01-10

Fabri-Ruiz S, Danis B, Navarro N, et al (2020)

Benthic Ecoregionalization based on echinoid fauna of the Southern Ocean supports current proposals of Antarctic Marine Protected Areas under IPCC scenarios of climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The Southern Ocean (SO) is among the regions on Earth that are undergoing regionally the fastest environmental changes. The unique ecological features of its marine life make it particularly vulnerable to the multiple effects of climate change. A network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has started to be implemented in the SO to protect marine ecosystems. However, considering future predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the relevance of current, static, MPAs may be questioned under future scenarios. In this context, the ecoregionalization approach can prove promising in identifying well-delimited regions of common species composition and environmental settings. These so-called ecoregions are expected to show similar biotic responses to environmental changes and can be used to define priority areas for the designation of new MPAs and the update of their current delimitation. In the present work, a benthic ecoregionalization of the entire SO is proposed for the first time based on abiotic environmental parameters and the distribution of echinoid fauna, a diversified and common member of Antarctic benthic ecosystems. A novel two-step approach was developed combining species distribution modelling with Random Forest and Gaussian Mixture modelling from species probabilities to define current ecoregions and predict future ecoregions under IPCC scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The ecological representativity of current and proposed MPAs of the SO are discussed with regards to the modeled benthic ecoregions. Twelve benthic ecoregions were determined under Present conditions, they are representative of major biogeographic patterns already described. Our results show that the most dramatic changes can be expected along the Antarctic Peninsula, in East Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic islands under both IPCC scenarios. Our results advocate for a dynamic definition of MPAs, they also argue for improving the representativity of Antarctic ecoregions in proposed MPAs and support current proposals of CCAMLR for the creation of Antarctic MPAs.

RevDate: 2020-01-10

Nasir IR, Rasul F, Ahmad A, et al (2020)

Climate change impacts and adaptations for fine, coarse, and hybrid rice using CERES-Rice.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-07080-z [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has become a threatening issue for major field crops of Pakistan, especially rice. A 2 years' (2014 and 2015) field trial was conducted on fine, coarse, and hybrid rice at Research Area, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad following the split-plot design. Data of growth, yield, and yield components were collected to calibrate and evaluate the CERES-Rice model under Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT). Two cultivars of each type of fine, coarse, and hybrid rice were transplanted with interval of fortnight from May to September during 2014 and 2015. The model was calibrated with non-stressed sowing data during the year 2014 and evaluated with the data of 2015. Climate change scenarios were generated for mid-century (2040-2069) under representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5) using different general circulation models (GCMs) (baseline, cool dry, hot dry, cool wet, hot wet, and middle) were using different General Circulation Models (GCMs). CERES-Rice calibration and evaluation results were quite good to simulate impacts of climate change and to formulate adaptations during 2040-2069 (mid-century). Simulations of all GCMs showed an average increase of 3 °C in average temperature as compared to baseline (1980-2010). Likewise, there would be an average increase of 107.6 mm in rainfall than baseline. The future rise in temperature will reduced the paddy yield by 10.33% in fine, 18-54% in coarse and 24-64% in hybrid rice for mid-century under RCP8.5. To nullified deleterious effects of climate change, some agronomic and genetics adaptation strategies were evaluated with CERES-rice during mid-century. Paddy yield of fine rice was increased by 15% in cool dry and 5% in hot dry GCM. Paddy yield of coarse rice was improved by 15% and 9% under cool dry and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively, with adaptations. For hybrid rice, paddy yield was enhanced by 15% and 0.3% with cool wet and hot dry climatic conditions, respectively. Hot dry climatic conditions were the most threatening for rice crop in rice producing areas of Punjab, Pakistan.

RevDate: 2020-01-09

Bove G, Becker A, Sweeney B, et al (2019)

A method for regional estimation of climate change exposure of coastal infrastructure: Case of USVI and the influence of digital elevation models on assessments.

The Science of the total environment, 710:136162 pii:S0048-9697(19)36158-3 [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVE: This study tests the impacts of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data on an exposure assessment methodology developed to quantify flooding of coastal infrastructure from storms and sea level rise on a regional scale. The approach is piloted on the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) for a one-hundred-year storm event in 2050 under the IPCC's 8.5 emission scenario (RCP 8,5).

METHOD: Flooding of individual infrastructure was tested against three different digital elevation models using a GIS-based coastal infrastructure database created specifically for the project using aerial images. Inundation for extreme sea levels is based on dynamic simulations using Lisflood-ACC (LFP).

RESULTS: The model indicates transport and utility infrastructure in the USVI are considerably exposed to sea level rise and modeled storm impacts from climate change. Prediction of flood extent was improved with a neural network processed SRTM, versus publicly available SRTM (~30 m) seamless C-band DEM but both SRTM based models underestimate flooding compared to LIDAR DEM. The modeled scenario, although conservative, showed significant flood exposure to a large number of access roads to facilities, 113/176 transportation related buildings, and 29/66 electric utility and water treatment buildings including six electric power transformers and six waste water treatment clarifiers.

CONCLUSION: The method bridges a gap between large-scale non-specific flood assessments and single-facility detailed assessments and can be used to efficiently quantify and prioritize parcels and large structures in need of further assessment for regions that lack detailed data to assess climate exposure to sea level rise and flooding caused by waves. The method should prove particularly useful for assessment of Small Island Developing State regions that lack LIDAR data, such as the Caribbean.

RevDate: 2020-01-09

Martin G, Reilly KC, JA Gilliland (2020)

Impact of awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health: a scoping review protocol.

JBI database of systematic reviews and implementation reports [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this scoping review is to identify and describe the existing literature on the impact of the overarching awareness and concerns of climate change on children's mental health and wellbeing.

INTRODUCTION: Children are widely acknowledged as being disproportionately at risk to the effects of climate change, yet research overlooks the impact that climate change has on their mental health. Children's overarching awareness of climate change, and its global effects, may influence their mental health and wellbeing.

INCLUSION CRITERIA: This review will include all research that addresses school-aged children's (those aged 3-19) mental-health issues stemming from an awareness of climate change. It will not include research that examines direct impacts of climate change on children's mental health, such as trauma from a specific climate-related event.

METHODS: Searches will be conducted across eight research databases (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CINAHL, Embase, GreenFILE, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Scopus) and three unpublished/grey literature databases (ProQuest Dissertations and Theses,, and OpenGrey). Data will be extracted for author(s), year of publication, country of origin, purpose, population, methodology, concepts of interest; outcomes; and key findings relating to the scoping review objectives. Findings will be presented as a narrative summary.

RevDate: 2020-01-09

Eguiluz-Gracia I, Mathioudakis AG, Bartel S, et al (2020)

The need for clean air: the way air pollution and climate change affect allergic rhinitis and asthma.

Allergy [Epub ahead of print].

Air pollution and climate change have a significant impact on human health and well-being and contribute to the onset and aggravation of allergic rhinitis and asthma among other chronic respiratory diseases. In Westernized countries, households have experienced a process of increasing insulation and individuals tend to spend most of their time indoors. These sequelae implicate a high exposure to indoor allergens (house dust mites, pets, molds, etc.), tobacco smoke and other pollutants, which have an impact on respiratory health. Outdoor air pollution derived from traffic and other human activities not only has a direct negative effect on human health but also enhances the allergenicity of some plants and contributes to global warming. Climate change modifies the availability and distribution of plant- and fungal-derived allergens and increases the frequency of extreme climate events. This review summarizes the effects of indoor air pollution, outdoor air pollution and subsequent climate change on asthma and allergic rhinitis in children and adults and addresses the policy adjustments and lifestyle changes required to mitigate their deleterious effects.

RevDate: 2020-01-08

Yamaguchi M, Chan JCL, Moon IJ, et al (2020)

Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed.

Nature communications, 11(1):47 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-13902-y.

Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951-2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.

RevDate: 2020-01-08

Bastiaansen R, Doelman A, Eppinga MB, et al (2020)

The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation.

Ecology letters [Epub ahead of print].

In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self-organised) spatial patterns - typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self-organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre-emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.

RevDate: 2020-01-08

Long KL, Prothero DR, VJP Syverson (2020)

How do small birds evolve in response to climate change? Data from the long-term record at La Brea tar pits.

Integrative zoology [Epub ahead of print].

Biology textbooks describe the small changes in the beaks of the Galápagos finches as exemplars of how birds evolve in response to environmental changes. Yet recent studies of the abundant fossil birds at Rancho La Brea finds no evidence of evolutionary responses to the dramatic climate changes of the glacial-interglacial cycle over the last 35,000 years: none of the large birds exhibit any change in body size or limb proportions, even during the last glacial maximum about 18,000-20,000 years ago, when the southern California chaparral was replaced by snowy coniferous forests. But these are all large birds with large ranges and broad habitat preferences, capable of living in many different environments. Perhaps the smaller birds at La Brea, which have smaller home ranges and narrower habitats, might respond to climate more like Galápagos finches. The only three common small birds at La Brea are the Western Meadowlark, the Yellow-Billed Magpie, and the Raven. In this study, we demonstrate that these birds also show complete stasis over the last glacial-interglacial cycle, with no statistically significant changes between dated pits. Recent research suggests that the small-scale changes over short time scales seen in the Galápagos finches are merely fluctuations around a stable morphology, and rarely lead to long-term accumulation of changes or speciation. Instead, the prevalence of stasis supports the view that long-term directional changes in morphology are quite rare. While directional changes in morphology occur frequently over short (<1ka) timescales, in the long term such changes only rarely remain stable for long enough to appear in the fossil record. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-01-08

Huang L, Chen K, M Zhou (2020)

Climate change and carbon sink: a bibliometric analysis.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-07489-6 [Epub ahead of print].

In recent years, climate change and carbon sinks have been widely studied by the academic community, and relevant research results have emerged in abundance. In this paper, a scientometric analysis of 747 academic works published between 1991 and 2018 related to climate change and carbon sinks is presented to characterize the intellectual landscape by identifying and revealing the basic characteristics, research power, intellectual base, research topic evolution, and research hotspots in this field. The results show that ① the number of publications in this field has increased rapidly and the field has become increasingly interdisciplinary; ② the most productive authors and institutions in this subject area are in the USA, China, Canada, Australia, and European countries, and the cooperation between these researchers is closer than other researchers in the field; ③ 11 of the 747 papers analyzed in this study have played a key role in the evolution of the field; and ④ in this paper, we divide research hotspots into three decade-long phases (1991-1999, 2000-2010, and 2011-present). Drought problems have attracted more and more attention from scholars. In the end, given the current trend of the studies, we conclude a list of research potentials of climate change and carbon sinks in the future. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of climate change and carbon sink research to better understand the global trends and directions that have emerged in this field over the past 28 years, which can also provide reference for future research in this field.

RevDate: 2020-01-07

Pareek A, Dhankher OP, CH Foyer (2020)

Mitigating the impact of climate change on plant productivity and ecosystem sustainability.

Journal of experimental botany, 71(2):451-456.

RevDate: 2020-01-07

Shapiro LT, Gater DR, Espinel Z, et al (2020)

Preparing individuals with spinal cord injury for extreme storms in the era of climate change.

EClinicalMedicine, 18:100232 pii:100232.

RevDate: 2020-01-07

Portilla Cabrera CV, JJ Selvaraj (2020)

Geographic shifts in the bioclimatic suitability for Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios in Colombia.

Heliyon, 6(1):e03101 pii:e03101.

The Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses are arboviruses predominantly transmitted to humans through the bite of the female mosquito Aedes aegypti. Currently, the vector represents a potential epidemiological risk in several Latin American and Pacific countries. However, little is known about the geographical distribution and bioclimatic suitability of this mosquito in the projected climate change scenarios in Colombia. Using a species distribution model of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) based on presence-only records obtained from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), land elevation obtained from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), we produced environmental suitability maps of this mosquito vector for present and future geographic distribution. The future distribution were constructed based on the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) for the years 2050 and 2070, projected according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For the current conditions, Colombia has ~140,612.8 square km of areas with the possible presence of the vector; however, for the future, this will be reduced by more than 30%. For the future conditions, the suitable areas for A. aegypti decreased compared to the present, mainly for the year 2070 under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, however, the probability of mosquito occurrence increases in some departments of Colombia. Areas susceptible to the presence of A. aegypti are affected by climate change. The Caribbean and Andean regions have a high probability of mosquito distribution; therefore, control and epidemiological surveillance are required in these areas. The results can serve as an input to define preventive and control measures, especially in areas with a higher risk of contracting the virus.

RevDate: 2020-01-07

Singh J, Schädler M, Demetrio W, et al (2019)

Climate change effects on earthworms - a review.

Soil organisms, 91(3):114-138.

Climate change can have a plethora of effects on organisms above and below the ground in terrestrial ecosystems. Given the tremendous biodiversity in the soil and the many ecosystem functions governed by soil organisms, the drivers of soil biodiversity have received increasing attention. Various climatic factors like temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, as well as extreme climate events like drought and flood have been shown to alter the composition and functioning of communities in the soil. Earthworms are important ecosystem engineers in the soils of temperate and tropical climates and play crucial roles for many ecosystem services, including decomposition, nutrient cycling, and crop yield. Here, we review the published literature on climate change effects on earthworm communities and activity. In general, we find highly species- and ecological group-specific responses to climate change, which are likely to result in altered earthworm community composition in future ecosystems. Earthworm activity, abundance, and biomass tend to increase with increasing temperature at sufficiently high soil water content, while climate extremes like drought and flooding have deleterious effects. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the invasion of earthworms at higher latitudes and altitudes, while dryer and warmer conditions may limit earthworm performance in other regions of the world. The present summary of available information provides a first baseline for predictions of future earthworm distribution. It also reveals the shortage of studies on interacting effects of multiple global change effects on earthworms, such as potential context-dependent effects of climate change at different soil pollution levels and across ecosystem types.

RevDate: 2020-01-07

Naod E, Addisu Legesse S, F Tegegne (2020)

Livestock diversification prospects for climate change adaptation in Dangila district, Ethiopia.

Tropical animal health and production pii:10.1007/s11250-019-02149-w [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is expected to increase weather variability and incidences of extreme events, which will have an impact on livelihoods and wellbeing. This study was intended to assess the role of livestock diversification in minimizing climate change adverse impacts on livelihood assets in Dangila district, Ethiopia. A random sampling technique was used, and 107 sample households were selected. Primary data were collected through field visit and interview, whereas secondary data were collected from the district agricultural office and meteorological stations. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics, correlation and multiple linear regressions were used for testing the hypotheses. Accordingly, the results revealed that weather shocks affected livelihood assets negatively and significantly (β = - .157, p < 0.05) than other shocks. There has been a significant positive interaction effect (β = .197, p < 0.05) between adaptive capacity and weather shock which implies that a household's adaptive capacity (through livestock diversification) counteracts the adverse effects of weather shocks on livelihood assets. Cattle population size has decreased by 19.8% from 2008 to 2017, which infers that reductions in rainfall amount and variation drive the downward trend in cattle number. To conclude, the efforts, which were achieved in terms of sustainable adaptation practices that enhance the resilience of household's livelihood assets, were not adequate. Therefore, to further enhance households' adaptive capacity, improvement in livestock diversification through the provision of a package of livestock species and access to credit for youths were recommended.

RevDate: 2020-01-07

Li J, Ma X, C Zhang (2019)

Predicting the spatiotemporal variation in soil wind erosion across Central Asia in response to climate change in the 21st century.

The Science of the total environment, 709:136060 pii:S0048-9697(19)36056-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Wind erosion is an important environmental issue in Central Asia (CA), which includes Xinjiang, China (XJ-China), and the five CA states of the former Soviet Union (CAS5). Future climate changes could accelerate wind erosion in arid and semiarid areas and negatively impact local soil health and productivity. Based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b) climate model, we simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil wind erosion from 1986 to 2099 in CA using the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) model. Our analysis indicated that the annual soil wind erosion modulus during the prediction period (2006-2099) increased compared with that in the reference period (1986-2005), especially in the 2030s (18.71%) and 2050s (18.85%) under RCP4.5. Spring and winter soil wind erosion will be the major contributors to increased annual wind erosion. We predicted that spring soil wind erosion will increase by 10.34% (RCP4.5) to 10.71% (RCP8.5) and that winter soil wind erosion will increase by 23.32% (RCP4.5) to 33.74% (RCP8.5) in the late 21st century. Annual soil wind erosion will increase in the northwest of CA, but decrease in the Karakum Desert, Kyzylkum Desert and Taklimakan Desert. Soil wind erosion varies under different plant functional types. By the late 21st century, the soil wind erosion modulus in grassland, irrigated cropland and rainfed cropland will increase by 62 t/km2/a (RCP4.5) to 412 t/km2/a (RCP8.5), 27 t/km2/a (RCP4.5) to 88 t/km2/a (RCP8.5) and 141 t/km2/a (RCP4.5) to 237 t/km2/a (RCP8.5), respectively. Our study indicates high risks of soil wind erosion in northwestern CA, and ecological engineering measures such as nature based solutions including ecological barriers should be developed to prevent soil loss in central and western Kazakhstan, where future warming will bring severe stress.

RevDate: 2020-01-06

Joshi M, B Varkey (2020)

Timely topical reviews on climate change, indoor air pollution, coalworkers' pneumoconiosis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Current opinion in pulmonary medicine [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-06

Casadevall A (2020)

Climate change brings the specter of new infectious diseases.

The Journal of clinical investigation pii:135003 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-06

Ahima RS (2020)

Global warming threatens human thermoregulation and survival.

The Journal of clinical investigation pii:135006 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-06

Dietz WH (2020)

Climate change and malnutrition: we need to act now.

The Journal of clinical investigation pii:135004 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-01-06

Graham H, de Bell S, Hanley N, et al (2020)

Re: Letter to the Editor of Public Health in response to 'Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey'.

RevDate: 2020-01-05

Zhang W, Li Y, Li Z, et al (2020)

Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-07238-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in.

RevDate: 2020-01-04

Yu TK, Lavallee JP, Di Giusto B, et al (2020)

Risk perception and response toward climate change for higher education students in Taiwan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-07450-7 [Epub ahead of print].

The effects of climate change have already begun to threaten biological diversity and human societies, and these effects will continue to grow over time. To face the challenges related to mitigation and adaptation will require an educated and motivated citizenry. From the perspective of green education, providing knowledge related to climate change and promoting pro-environmental behaviors is imperative. In this study, we assess current levels of knowledge, risk perception and types of pro-environmental behaviors. We administered a questionnaire to 1118 university students in Taiwan evaluating climate change knowledge (15 items), risk perception (23 items), and attitudes toward behavioral change (33 items). Factor analyses were conducted to identify the underlying latent variables for risk perception and obstacles to behavioral change, and ANOVA tests were performed to identify significant associations between three different levels of climate change knowledge and responses to the risk perception and obstacles-to-change items. We found that higher levels of knowledge significantly predicted greater perceptions of risk related to biodiversity threats and increased public costs. In terms of behavior, students with lower levels of knowledge were significantly more likely to find uncertainties related to climate change to be a greater obstacle to engaging in pro-environmental behaviors. Higher levels of knowledge clearly allow individuals to better assess the threats posed by climate change and reduces the perceived level of uncertainty related to climate change and the impact of pro-environmental behaviors. Our results suggest that Taiwan's efforts to implement climate change related information in the public schools and in the university system have been effective and that such efforts should be broadened to reach the public as a whole.

RevDate: 2020-01-04

Ramachandran RM, Roy PS, Chakravarthi V, et al (2020)

Land use and climate change impacts on distribution of plant species of conservation value in Eastern Ghats, India: a simulation study.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(2):86 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-8044-5.

Effective monitoring of the current status of species distributions and predicting future distributions are very important for conservation practices at the ecosystem and species levels. The human population, land use, and climate are important factors that influence the distributions of species. Even though future simulations have many uncertainties, such studies can provide a means of obtaining species distributions, range shifts, and food production and help mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, we simulate the population, land use/land cover and species distributions in the Eastern Ghats, India. A MaxEnt species distribution model was used to simulate the potential habitats of a group of endemic (28 species found in this region) and rare, endangered, and threatened (RET) (22 species found in this region) plant species on the basis of IPCC AR5 scenarios developed for 2050 and 2070. Simulations of populations in 2050 indicate that they will increase at a rate of 1.12% relative to the base year, 2011. These increases in population create a demand for more land for settlement and food productions. Land use land cover (LULC) simulations show an increase in built-up land from 3665.00 km2 in 2015 to 3989.56 km2 by 2050. There is a minor increase of 0.04% in the area under agriculture in 2050 compared with 2015. On the other hand, the habitat simulations show that the combined effects of climate and land use change have a greater influence on the decline of potential distributions of species. Climate change and the prevailing rate of LULC change will reduce the extents of the habitats of endemic and RET species (~ 60% and ~ 40%, respectively). The Eastern Ghats have become extensively fragmented due to human activities and have become a hotspot of endemic and RET species loss. Climate and LULC change will enhance the species loss and ecosystem services.

RevDate: 2020-01-03
CmpDate: 2020-01-03

Tegegne G, Melesse AM, AW Worqlul (2020)

Development of multi-model ensemble approach for enhanced assessment of impacts of climate change on climate extremes.

The Science of the total environment, 704:135357.

The severity and frequency of climate extremes will change in the future owing to global warming. This can severely impact the natural environment. Therefore, it is common practice to project climate extremes with a global climate model (GCM) in order to quantify and manage the associated risks. Several studies have demonstrated that a multi-model ensemble approach increases the reliability of predictions by exploiting the strengths and discounting the weaknesses of each climate simulator. However, the available multi-model averaging approaches exhibit significant drawbacks as they are not capable of extracting different climate extreme characteristics from the climate models. This study proposes a new approach that combines multiple models for projecting climate extremes by accounting for different extreme indices in the climate model performance weighting scheme. The capability of this method was evaluated with respect to reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Taylor diagram-based GCM skill approaches for reproducing wet and dry precipitation events. The proposed multi-model averaging approach outperformed the available approaches in reducing the root mean square error (RMSE) by 5% and 54% in the wet and dry precipitation conditions, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that incorporating the different precipitation extremes in a multi-model combination approach could enhance the assessment of climate change impacts on the climate extremes. The climate change impacts on the extreme events, based on the proposed multi-model ensembles, is thus assessed using the standardized precipitation indexes of 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month durations. In general, the results exhibited that the frequency of wet events increases, whereas that of drought events decreases.

RevDate: 2020-01-01

Springer RA, SJ Elliott (2019)

"There's Not Really Much Consideration Given to the Effect of the Climate on NCDs"-Exploration of Knowledge and Attitudes of Health Professionals on a Climate Change-NCD Connection in Barbados.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(1): pii:ijerph17010198.

Despite widespread awareness of the rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the growing threat of climate change, little research has explored future health outcomes that will occur at the intersection of these challenges. Ten Barbadian health professionals were interviewed to assess their knowledge of health risks of climate change as it relates to NCDs in Barbados as a case study of a small island state at risk. There is widespread concern among health professionals about the current and future prevalence of non-communicable diseases among Barbadians. There is less concern about the future burden of NCDs in the context of a changing climate, largely because of a lack of knowledge among the majority of the health experts interviewed. Those knowledgeable about potential connections noted the difficulty that climate change would pose to the prevention and management of NCDs, given the impacts of climate stressors to food security, the built environment, and physiological and psychosocial health impacts. Lack of awareness among health professionals of the risk climate change poses to NCD prevalence and impact is reflective of the country's health priorities that fail to recognize the risk of climate change. We recommend efforts to disseminate information about climate change to stakeholders in the health sector to increase awareness.

RevDate: 2019-12-31

Asare-Nuamah P, E Botchway (2019)

Comparing smallholder farmers' climate change perception with climate data: the case of Adansi North District of Ghana.

Heliyon, 5(12):e03065 pii:e03065.

This study adopted mixed methods design and employed questionnaire and interview to investigate climate trends and smallholder farmers' perception of climate change as well as the relationship between climate data and farmers' perception, and the determinants of perception in Adansi North District of Ghana. The study randomly and purposively selected 378 respondents and 41 key informants, respectively. Descriptive, inferential, trend and thematic analysis were employed. Results showed that the majority of smallholder farmers have observed increase in intensity (96.8%) and duration (94.7%) of temperature, and delay onset (82.8%) and early cessation (89.2%) of rainfall as well as increase in wind intensity (79.4%). Climate data also revealed rising trends of rainfall, wind speed and temperature. Nevertheless, there was no significant relationship between farmers' perception and climate data. Information from family and friends and government, particularly local institutions and extension service significantly influence farmers' perception. In addition, television and radio were significant predictors of farmers' perception. The study recommends intensification of climate education, mass awareness and capacity development programmes.

RevDate: 2019-12-31

Hassan FU, Nawaz A, Rehman MS, et al (2019)

Prospects of HSP70 as a genetic marker for thermo-tolerance and immuno-modulation in animals under climate change scenario.

Animal nutrition (Zhongguo xu mu shou yi xue hui), 5(4):340-350.

Heat stress induced by long periods of high ambient temperature decreases animal productivity, leading to heavy economic losses. This devastating situation for livestock production is even becoming worse under the present climate change scenario. Strategies focused to breed animals with better thermo-tolerance and climatic resilience are keenly sought these days to mitigate impacts of heat stress especially in high input livestock production systems. The 70-kDa heat shock proteins (HSP70) are a protein family known for its potential role in thermo-tolerance and widely considered as cellular thermometers. HSP70 function as molecular chaperons and have major roles in cellular thermotolerance, apoptosis, immune-modulation and heat stress. Expression of HSP70 is controlled by various factors such as, intracellular pH, cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cyclic AMP), protein kinase C and intracellular free calcium, etc. Over expression of HSP70 has been observed under oxidative stress leading to scavenging of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species and protection of pulmonary endothelial barrier against bacterial toxins. Polymorphisms in flanking and promoter regions in HSP70 gene have shown association with heat tolerance, weaning weight, milk production, fertility and disease susceptibility in livestock. This review provides insight into pivotal roles of HSP70 which make it an ideal candidate genetic marker for selection of animals with better climate resilience, immune response and superior performance.

RevDate: 2019-12-31

Chandio AA, Magsi H, I Ozturk (2019)

Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-07486-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The current empirical study explores the linkage between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, average temperature, cultivated area, consumption of fertilizer, and rice production in Pakistan. For this research, the annual time series data from 1968 to 2014 were used to enhance the validity of the empirical outcomes. The cointegration analysis with the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is applied to explore the effects of climate change on rice production. Additionally, the estimated long-run outcomes are verified by employing fully modified ordinary least squared (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) approaches. The empirical outcomes revealed that the selected important study variables are cointegrated demonstrating the existence of long-run linkages among them. The main fruitful outcomes of this study are that rice production in Pakistan is positively affected by the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in both long-run and short-run.

RevDate: 2019-12-31

Shukla R, Agarwal A, Gornott C, et al (2019)

Farmer typology to understand differentiated climate change adaptation in Himalaya.

Scientific reports, 9(1):20375 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-56931-9.

Smallholder farmers' responses to the climate-induced agricultural changes are not uniform but rather diverse, as response adaptation strategies are embedded in the heterogonous agronomic, social, economic, and institutional conditions. There is an urgent need to understand the diversity within the farming households, identify the main drivers and understand its relationship with household adaptation strategies. Typology construction provides an efficient method to understand farmer diversity by delineating groups with common characteristics. In the present study, based in the Uttarakhand state of Indian Western Himalayas, five farmer types were identified on the basis of resource endowment and agriculture orientation characteristics. Factor analysis followed by sequential agglomerative hierarchial and K-means clustering was use to delineate farmer types. Examination of adaptation strategies across the identified farmer types revealed that mostly contrasting and type-specific bundle of strategies are adopted by farmers to ensure livelihood security. Our findings show that strategies that incurred high investment, such as infrastructural development, are limited to high resource-endowed farmers. In contrast, the low resourced farmers reported being progressively disengaging with farming as a livelihood option. Our results suggest that the proponents of effective adaptation policies in the Himalayan region need to be cognizant of the nuances within the farming communities to capture the diverse and multiple adaptation needs and constraints of the farming households.

RevDate: 2019-12-31

Chhetri BK, Galanis E, Sobie S, et al (2019)

Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

Environmental health : a global access science source, 18(1):116 pii:10.1186/s12940-019-0550-y.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation.

METHODS: Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s.

RESULTS: Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models.

DISCUSSION: If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

RevDate: 2019-12-31

Adekiya TA, Aruleba RT, Oyinloye BE, et al (2019)

The Effect of Climate Change and the Snail-Schistosome Cycle in Transmission and Bio-Control of Schistosomiasis in Sub-Saharan Africa.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(1): pii:ijerph17010181.

In the next century, global warming, due to changes in climatic factors, is expected to have an enormous influence on the interactions between pathogens and their hosts. Over the years, the rate at which vector-borne diseases and their transmission dynamics modify and develop has been shown to be highly dependent to a certain extent on changes in temperature and geographical distribution. Schistosomiasis has been recognized as a tropical and neglected vector-borne disease whose rate of infection has been predicted to be elevated worldwide, especially in sub-Saharan Africa; the region currently with the highest proportion of people at risk, due to changes in climate. This review not only suggests the need to develop an efficient and effective model that will predict Schistosoma spp. population dynamics but seeks to evaluate the effectiveness of several current control strategies. The design of a framework model to predict and accommodate the future incidence of schistosomiasis in human population dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa is proposed. The impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission as well as the distribution of several freshwater snails responsible for the transmission of Schistosoma parasites in the region is also reviewed. Lastly, this article advocates for modelling several control mechanisms for schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa so as to tackle the re-infection of the disease, even after treating infected people with praziquantel, the first-line treatment drug for schistosomiasis.

RevDate: 2019-12-30

Miller CB, Parsons MB, Jamieson HE, et al (2019)

Influence of late-Holocene climate change on the solid-phase speciation and long-term stability of arsenic in sub-Arctic lake sediments.

The Science of the total environment, 709:136115 pii:S0048-9697(19)36111-X [Epub ahead of print].

Sediment cores were collected from two lakes in the Courageous Lake Greenstone Belt (CLGB), central Northwest Territories, Canada, to examine the influence of late-Holocene warming on the transport and fate of arsenic (As) in sub-Arctic lakes. In both lakes, allochthonous As-bearing minerals (i.e. arsenopyrite and scorodite) were identified in sediment deposited during times of both regional warming and cooling, suggesting that weathering of bedrock and derived surficial materials provides a continual source of As to lakes of the CLGB. However, maximum porewater As (84 μg·L-1 and 15 μg·L-1) and reactive organic matter (OM; aquatic and terrestrial-derived) concentrations in each lake are coincident with known periods of regional climate warming. It is inferred that increased biological production in surface waters and influx of terrigenous OM led to the release of sedimentary As to porewater through reductive dissolution of As-bearing Fe-(oxy)hydroxides and scorodite during episodes of regional warming. Elevated sedimentary As concentrations (median: 36 mg·kg-1; range: 29 to 49 mg·kg-1) are observed in sediment coeval with the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 5430 ± 110 to 4070 ± 130 cal. years BP); at these depths, authigenic As-bearing framboidal pyrite is the primary host of As in sediment and the influence of organic matter on the precipitation of As-bearing framboidal pyrite is apparent petrographically. These findings suggest that increased biological productivity and weathering of terrestrial OM associated with climate warming influences redox cycles in the near-surface sediment and enhances the mobility of As in northern lakes. Knowledge generated from this study is relevant for predicting future climate change-driven variations in metal(loid) cycling in aquatic systems and can be used to interpret trends in long-term environmental monitoring data at historical, modern, and future metal mines in northern environments.

RevDate: 2019-12-30

Zheng J, Wang W, Ding Y, et al (2019)

Assessment of climate change impact on the water footprint in rice production: Historical simulation and future projections at two representative rice cropping sites of China.

The Science of the total environment, 709:136190 pii:S0048-9697(19)36186-8 [Epub ahead of print].

As one of the most important crops cultivated in China, rice contributes to approximately 28% of total yield. In despite of the substantial production, rice productivity is gravely affected by ongoing climate change and reduction of available water resources. Thus, assessing the responses of rice water consumption and productivity to more pronounced climate change is of great significance to water resources management in terms of relieving the resources shortage and meeting the food demand. In this study, the yield and water resources utilization during 1961-2010 in two typical rice plantation regions of China were evaluated using validated rice model ORYZA2000. Subsequently, their responses to future climate scenarios of 21 century were investigated through driving ORYZA2000 with downscaling climatic projections from GCMs under four RCPs emission scenarios. To quantify the water resources utilization in rice production from multiple perspectives, the water footprint (WF) and three water productivity indices (WPI, WPU and WPET) were integrated for assessing the regional agricultural water stress in this paper. The results revealed that the annual average linear inclining rates of WF in two stations (Kaifeng and Kunshan) were 3.86 m3/ t and 2.62 m3/ t, respectively. Moreover, compared with the green water footprint (WFg), the blue water footprint (WFb) is projected to significantly increase in future. The water productivity (WP) would decrease in two stations under four RCPs scenarios except that the WPu and WPET of Kunshan under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Hence, this study provides insights into comprehensively understand the influences of climate change on food security and sheds lights on the regional strategy for future water resource management.

RevDate: 2019-12-28

Venâncio C, Ribeiro R, I Lopes (2019)

Active emigration from climate change-caused seawater intrusion into freshwater habitats.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 258:113805 pii:S0269-7491(19)34193-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Ecological risk assessment associated with seawater intrusions has been supported on the determination of lethal/sublethal effects following standard protocols that force exposure neglecting the ability of mobile organisms to spatially avoid salinized environments. Thus, this work aimed at assessing active emigration from climate change-caused seawater intrusion into freshwater habitats. To specific objectives were delineated: first, to compute median 12-h avoidance conductivities (AC50,12h) for freshwater species, and second, to compare it with literature data (LC50,48 or 96h, EC50,6 or 21d) to assess the relevance of the inclusion of stressor-driven emigration into risk assessment frameworks. Four standard test species, representing a broad range of ecological niches - Daphnia magna, Heterocypris incongruens, Danio rerio and Xenopus laevis - were selected. The salt NaCl was used as a surrogate of natural seawater to create the saline gradient, which was established in a 7-compartment system. At each specific LC50, 48 or 96h, the proportion of avoiders were well above 50%, ranging from 71 to 94%. At each LC50, considering also avoiders, populations would decline by 85-97%. Furthermore, for D. magna and X. laevis it was noticed that at the lowest conductivities eliciting mortality, the avoidance already exceeded 50%. The results showed that the emigration from salinity-disturbed habitats exists and that can even be more sensitive than standard endpoints. Looking solely to standard endpoints involving forced exposure may greatly underestimate the risk of local population extinction, because habitat function can be severely disrupted, with subsequent stressor-driven emigration, before any adverse physiological effects at the organism level. Thus, the present study highlights the need to include non-forced exposure testing into ecological risk assessment, namely of salinity-menaced costal freshwaters.

RevDate: 2019-12-28

Tørresen KS, Fykse H, Rafoss T, et al (2019)

Autumn growth of three perennial weeds at high latitude benefits from climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

In autumn, agricultural perennial weeds prepare for winter and can store reserves into creeping roots or rhizomes. Little is known about influence of climate change in this period. We tested the effect of simulated climate change in autumn on three widespread and noxious perennial weeds, Elymus repens (L.) Gould, Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. and Sonchus arvensis L. We divided and combined simulated climate change components into elevated CO2 concentration (525 ppm), elevated temperatures (+2-2.5°C), treatments in open top chambers. In addition a control in the open top chamber without any increase in CO2 and temperature, and a field control outside the chambers were included. Two geographically different origins and three pre-growth periods prior to the exposure to climate change factors were included for each species. All species increased leaf area under elevated temperature, close to doubling in E. repens and quadrupling in the dicot species. E. repens kept leaves green later in autumn. C. arvense did not benefit in below-ground growth from more leaf area or leaf dry mass. S. arvensis had low levels of leaf area throughout the experiment and withered earlier than the two other species. Below-ground plant parts of S. arvensis were significantly increased by elevated temperature. Except for root:shoot ratio of C. arvense, the effects of pure elevated CO2 were not significant for any variables compared to the open top chamber control. There was an additive, but no synergistic, effect of enhanced temperature and CO2 . The length of pre-growth period was highly important for autumn plant growth, while origin had minor effect. We conclude that the small transfer of enhanced above-ground growth into below-ground growth under climate change in autumn does not favour creeping perennial plants per se, but more leaf area may offer more plant biomass to be tackled by chemical or physical weed control.

RevDate: 2019-12-28

Vulturius G, André K, Swartling ÅG, et al (2019)

Does Climate Change Communication Matter for Individual Engagement with Adaptation? Insights from Forest Owners in Sweden.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01247-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Natural resource managers urgently need to adapt to climate change, and extension services are increasingly using targeted communication campaigns to promote individual engagement with adaptation. This study compares two groups of Swedish forest owners: 1493 who participated in two climate communication projects by the Swedish Forest Agency, and 909 who were randomly sampled. The study finds statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of climate change awareness and concern, belief in the urgency to act and intentions to take adaptive measures. Results suggest that the primary effect of the climate chance communication seems to have been on forest owners' subjective risk perceptions and beliefs in their knowledge and ability, which make it more likely that individuals will take adaptive action in the future. The study also finds that experience with extreme events affects people's intentions to take adaptive measures independently from their beliefs that these extremes were caused by climate change. Furthermore, findings also highlight the need for communication research and practice to recognise the impeding role social norms and economic rationales can play for individual adaptation. Future research should make use of longitudinal and qualitative research to assess the effect of deliberation- and solution-orientated communication on people's intentions and actions to adapt to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-12-28

Mattiuzzi C, G Lippi (2019)

RE: 'Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey'.

RevDate: 2019-12-27

Walker J (2019)

Rural health inequities and the impact of climate change.

The Australian journal of rural health, 27(6):583-584.

RevDate: 2019-12-27

Mikolasch TA, CI Stadler (2020)

Our prescription for climate change: reduce and recycle inhalers!.

The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 70(690):30 pii:70/690/30.

RevDate: 2019-12-27

Adelson ND (2020)

Mitigating climate change: using the physician's tool of the trade.

The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners, 70(690):12-13 pii:70/690/12-b.

RevDate: 2019-12-27

He R, Jin J, Kuang F, et al (2019)

Farmers' Risk Cognition, Risk Preferences and Climate Change Adaptive Behavior: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(1): pii:ijerph17010085.

Improving local farmers' climate change adaptive capacity is an important policy issue in rural China. This study investigates farmers' risk cognition, risk preferences and climate change adaptive behavior. Based on unique data from a survey and a paired lottery experiment completed by 240 rural farmers in Chongqing City of China, this paper finds that farmers have a pessimistic risk cognition towards climate change and the typical farmers are risk-averse and loss-averse. Risk cognition and adaptation cognition have significantly positive influences on climate change adaptive behavior, and loss aversion has a significantly positive influence on farmers' adaptation decisions. Loss aversion exerts a positive impact on risk cognition and adaptation cognition, and risk aversion has a positive impact on adaptation cognition. This paper contributes to the emerging literature that relates risk preference in experiments and risk cognition to farmers' climate change adaptive behavior.

RevDate: 2019-12-24

Xiao J, Eziz A, Zhang H, et al (2019)

Responses of four dominant dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin, northwest China.

Ecology and evolution, 9(23):13596-13607 pii:ECE35817.

Aim: Dryland ecosystems are exceedingly sensitive to climate change. Desertification induced by both climate changes and human activities seriously threatens dryland vegetation. However, the impact of climate change on distribution of dryland plant species has not been well documented. Here, we studied the potential distribution of four representative dryland plant species (Haloxylon ammodendron, Anabasis aphylla, Calligonum mongolicum, and Populus euphratica) under current and future climate scenarios in a temperate desert region, aiming to improve our understanding of the responses of dryland plant species to climate change and provide guidance for dryland conservation and afforestation.

Location: Junggar Basin, a large desert region in northwestern China.

Methods: Occurrence data of the studied species were collected from an extensive field investigation of 2,516 sampling sites in the Junggar Basin. Ensemble species distribution models using 10 algorithms were developed and used to predict the potential distribution of each studied species under current and future climate scenarios.

Result: Haloxylon ammodendron and A. aphylla were likely to lose most of their current suitable habitats under future climate scenarios, while C. mongolicum and P. euphratica were likely to expand their ranges or remain relatively stationary. Variable importance evaluation showed that the most important climate variables influencing species distribution differed across the studied species. These results may be explained by the different ecophysiological characteristics and adaptation strategies to the environment of the four studied species.

Main conclusions: We explored the responses of the representative dryland plant species to climate change in the Junggar Basin in northwestern China. The different changes in suitability of different species imply that policymakers may need to reconsider the selection and combination of the afforestation species used in this area. This study can provide valuable reference for the management and conservation of dryland ecosystems under future climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-12-23

Sun C, Liu Y, Song H, et al (2019)

Tree-ring evidence of the impacts of climate change and agricultural cultivation on vegetation coverage in the upper reaches of the Weihe River, northwest China.

The Science of the total environment, 707:136160 pii:S0048-9697(19)36156-X [Epub ahead of print].

Comprehending the characteristics and causes of vegetation coverage in history is of practical significance for studying ecological and environmental changes. As a typical region of the semi-arid and semi-humid climatic zone in northwest China, the upper reaches of the Weihe River have relatively fragile ecological environment. Based on tree-ring width chronologies, the vegetation coverage represented by the normalized difference vegetation index was reconstructed from 1630 to 2006 using a regression model. There were 64 years with high vegetation coverage and 56 years with low vegetation coverage over the past 377 years. At low frequencies, the coverage was relatively higher in the 1650s and from the 1880s to 1890s, while the coverage was lower in the 1720s and from the 1760s to 1770s. While precipitation and temperature had positive and negative influences on the changes of vegetation coverage, respectively, during the past several centuries, the agricultural cultivation played an important role on coverage changes. Along with the land reclamation expansion in history, the forest cover gradually declined, and vegetation coverage decreased. The vegetation coverage was lower when there were more arable lands reclaimed from woodlands. Regardless of the land reclamation policy during the historical period or the current conversion project of cropland to forest, they affected the vegetation coverage by influencing cover ranges of woodland and farmland.

RevDate: 2019-12-23

Mazorra J, Sánchez-Jacob E, de la Sota C, et al (2019)

A comprehensive analysis of cooking solutions co-benefits at household level: Healthy lives and well-being, gender and climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 707:135968 pii:S0048-9697(19)35963-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Three billion people (>40% of the world's population) lack access to clean cooking solutions, including 2.5 billion people that still rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. In urban contexts, the rate of access to clean cooking solutions is normally higher than in rural contexts due to greater availability of these solutions. The relevance of providing access to clean cooking solutions (SDG 7) is linked to several associated co-benefits that contribute to a wide range of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, this paper shows a comprehensive analysis of multiple co-benefits of a clean cooking solution intervention. Health (SDG 3), gender (SDG 5) and climate change (SDG 13) co-benefits were analysed and compared through a cost-benefit analysis using a comprehensive approach in a case study in the Casamance Natural Subregion, located in Western Africa. The most important co-benefits were related to gender (SDG 5), representing 60-97% of the total economic benefits. Climate change co-benefits (SDG 13) were also relevant, representing 3-40% of the total economic benefits. Health co-benefits (SDG 3) were very limited for this case study, representing <1% of the total economic benefits. Considering these results, implications for urban settings were discussed in the light of the "making the available clean" or "making the clean available" strategies.

RevDate: 2019-12-23

Cole J, J Desphande (2019)

Poultry farming, climate change, and drivers of antimicrobial resistance in India.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(12):e494-e495.

RevDate: 2019-12-22

Zyoud SH, D Fuchs-Hanusch (2019)

Mapping of climate change research in the Arab world: a bibliometric analysis.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-07100-y [Epub ahead of print].

The attendant threats of climate change in the Arab world are accelerating at a high pace. The realization of these risks has promoted scientific research activities in climate change (i.e., modeling of climate change effects and development of mitigation and adaptation measures). A bibliometric analysis was desired to trace the status and trends of these research activities with an origin from the Arab world. The aim was to contribute to a better understanding of the scientific knowledge of climate change and its impacts and survey its evolution. Moreover, it is aimed at enabling recommendations for future research activities in this field. The data of this analysis were retrieved from the Scopus database using the most common terms of climate change to search titles, abstracts, and keywords. The collected data, in the form of documents referring to climate change, enabled to extract and further assess different quantitative and qualitative bibliometric indicators. Productivity of countries, sources, and institutions; collaboration figures; impact of published research; and citation rates were being among the assessed indicators. Subsequently, the data were analyzed using visualization maps and clustering techniques to characterize the hot spots and vital topics of research. A total of 2074 documents (1.2% of the total global research output) were retrieved from the Arab world. Saudi Arabia took the leading positions in terms of the number of publications (473 documents; 22.8%), impact of research (Hirsch index (h-index), 48), collected citations (10,573 citations), and number of documents from collaboration (389 documents). The USA was the most collaborated country with the Arab world (344 documents; 17.0%), followed by France (311 documents; 15.0%). The most productive journal was Plos One (42 documents; 2.0%), followed by the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (38 documents; 1.8%). Three institutions from Saudi Arabia were in the forefront in terms of research productivity (King Abdulaziz University, 124 documents; King Saud University, 117 documents; and King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, 102 documents). The vital climate change-related topics which will continue to be active in the future are climate modeling, physiology, genetics, and animals. The present data indicate a committed scientific research progress. Increasing the fund, capacity building, and development of regional experience with climate change-related disasters are key factors to promote the scientific research in this field.

RevDate: 2019-12-21

López MS, Santi MF, Müller GV, et al (2019)

Climate change communication by the local digital press in northeastern Argentina: An ethical analysis.

The Science of the total environment, 707:135737 pii:S0048-9697(19)35732-8 [Epub ahead of print].

News articles about Climate Change (CC) represent the level of knowledge of the phenomenon by journalists and the public, as well as the value assigned to problems of ethical and transgenerational nature in a given society. Digital articles related to CC released by media from northeast Argentina were reviewed to study how the local digital press addresses the CC in this region as well as the social representation of the news. An analysis of the content of news articles released in the period January 2016-March 2018 was carried out to identify components that explain their social representation. This study shows that local digital media publish articles about regionally important topics. However, news about CC appear mainly when hydroclimatic events occur. Many of the digital media that release CC information are connected to important social sectors in the region, such as agriculture and economics. A difference between national and local media is that the first ones focus on international events while the latter show the regional reality. Our results also show that no exchange or reciprocity mechanism exists among CC stakeholders, such as journalists, academics and decision-makers. Consequently, building new ways to communicate CC remains a challenge. The media together with scientists, and policy-makers, have a fundamental role in showing the ethical value and importance of caring for Nature and our environment, so to leave the best possible world for future generations.

RevDate: 2019-12-21

Dantas BF, Moura MSB, Pelacani CR, et al (2019)

Rainfall, not soil temperature, will limit the seed germination of dry forest species with climate change.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-019-04575-x [Epub ahead of print].

Drylands are predicted to become more arid and saline due to increasing global temperature and drought. Although species from the Caatinga, a Brazilian tropical dry forest, are tolerant to these conditions, the capacity for germination to withstand extreme soil temperature and water deficit associated with climate change remains to be quantified. We aimed to evaluate how germination will be affected under future climate change scenarios of limited water and increased temperature. Seeds of three species were germinated at different temperatures and osmotic potentials. Thermal time and hydrotime model parameters were established and thresholds for germination calculated. Germination performance in 2055 was predicted, by combining temperature and osmotic/salt stress thresholds, considering soil temperature and moisture following rainfall events. The most pessimistic climate scenario predicts an increase of 3.9 °C in soil temperature and 30% decrease in rainfall. Under this scenario, soil temperature is never lower than the minimum and seldomly higher than maximum temperature thresholds for germination. As long as the soil moisture (0.139 cm3 cm3) requirements are met, germination can be achieved in 1 day. According to the base water potential and soil characteristics, the minimum weekly rainfall for germination is estimated to be 17.5 mm. Currently, the required minimum rainfall occurs in 14 weeks of the year but will be reduced to 4 weeks by 2055. This may not be sufficient for seedling recruitment of some species in the natural environment. Thus, in future climate scenarios, rainfall rather than temperature will be extremely limiting for seed germination.

RevDate: 2019-12-21

Mathew MJ, Sautter B, Ariffin EH, et al (2019)

Total vulnerability of the littoral zone to climate change-driven natural hazards in north Brittany, France.

The Science of the total environment, 706:135963 pii:S0048-9697(19)35958-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Current worldwide projections of sea-level rise show a staggering increase in water level of up to 2 m by 2100 owing to global warming exacerbated by anthropogenically induced climate change. While amplified rates of sea-level rise is an immense hazard to coastal communities, storm surges are expected to increase in intensity and frequency making it an equally significant threat to coastal populations. In France, these hazards are not uncommon with records of extreme tempests every thousand years in the Holocene. Despite these recurring devastating events, in the Bay of Saint-Brieuc, Brittany, legislated laws for coastal management do not entirely focus on protecting littoral zones from such calamities. 130,739 people are concentrated in 21 municipalities with major cities located at close proximity to the shoreline with numerous socio-economic activities, which increases the vulnerability of the coastal population and infrastructures; thus, affirming the indispensable need of a thorough vulnerability assessment. Here, we conduct a mechanistic appraisal of the vulnerability of the bay considering thirteen parameters within three governing sub-systems that demonstrate the multidimensional dynamics in these municipalities. In the occasion of an extreme climatic event, our results of total vulnerability show risks in the sub-systems highlighting erosional processes due to augmented hydrodynamics, socio-economic and administrative vulnerabilities associated with anthropogenic development. Eight municipalities of the bay portray moderate to very high vulnerability and the remaining exhibits a lower risk; however, not devoid of high vulnerabilities for certain sub-systems. We posit that a more accurate fit for predicting the total vulnerability of the region can be achieved by exclusively integrating physical-natural and administrative sub-system vulnerabilities. We propose generic but requisite recommendations for Integrated Coastal Zone Management such as surveillance of urban development along the coast, implementation of coastal defense systems and appropriate industrial corridors to attenuate and dispose hazardous refuse.

RevDate: 2019-12-21

Kanazawa S (2019)

Does global warming contribute to the obesity epidemic?.

Environmental research, 182:108962 pii:S0013-9351(19)30759-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Endotherms must expend more energy to digest colder food, so they acquire more calories by eating food at a higher temperature than eating the identical food cold. A recent study shows that ownership of a microwave is associated with a small increase in BMI and obesity. The same logic applies to other substances that endotherms introduce into their bodies, like air. An analysis of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) shows that, net of sex, age, race, education, earnings, neighborhood characteristics, and exercise activities, atmospheric temperature is associated with small but statistically significant increases in BMI, weight, overweight, and obesity. Atmospheric temperature is more strongly associated than most exercise activities, and as strongly associated as age and population density. An average American might reduce weight by 15.1 lbs, BMI by 2.52 (half the difference between normal weight and obesity), and the odds of obesity by 54% by moving from Phoenix, AZ, to Barrow, AK, or, less dramatically, 5.7 lbs in weight, .95 in BMI (a fifth of the difference between normal weight and obesity), and 25% in the odds of obesity by moving mere 150 miles north to Flagstaff, AZ. Global warming under the worst-case scenario might produce an increase of 2.2 lbs in weight, .37 in BMI, and 12% in odds of obesity from 1961 to 2081.

RevDate: 2019-12-21

Sun H, He D, Sui X, et al (2019)

Predicting impacts of future climate change and hydropower development towards habitats of native and non-native fishes.

The Science of the total environment, 707:135419 pii:S0048-9697(19)35412-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and hydropower development are two primary stressors affecting riverine ecosystems and both stressors facilitate invasions by non-native species. However, little study has focused on how habitats of native and non-native fishes may be affected by independent or combined impacts of such stressors. Here we used the Jinsha River as an example to predict habitat change and distributional shift of native and non-native fishes with species distribution models. The Jinsha River Basin has nearly 40 cascade dams constructed or planned and located in the Tibetan Plateau, which is sensitive to future climate change. Two climate change scenarios and future hydropower development were combined to produce five scenarios of future changes. Under the impacts of independent extreme climate change or hydropower development, non-native fishes showed greater habitat gain in total, while native fishes shifted their distribution into tributaries and higher elevations, and impacts were stronger in combined scenarios. Habitat overlap between the two groups also increased in future scenarios. Certain fish traits correlated with stressors in habitat change prediction. River basins with hydropower development were shown to face higher risk of non-native fishes invasion under future climate change. As the most biodiverse river basins globally are threatened by hydropower development, our results emphasize the importance of regulating non-native fish introduction in reservoirs. Our approaches are also applicable to other systems globally to better understand how hydropower development and climate change may increase invasion risk, and therefore help conserve native species effectively.

RevDate: 2019-12-20

Ayala S, Alvarado S, Cáceres D, et al (2019)

[Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease].

Revista medica de Chile, 147(6):683-692.

BACKGROUND: Reproductive number (R0)-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change.

AIM: To map R0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used a relationship between R0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions.

RESULTS: We obtained a geographical R0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R0averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS: Mapping R0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome.

RevDate: 2019-12-20

Trájer AJ (2019)

The potential impact of climate change on the seasonality of Phlebotomus neglectus, the vector of visceral leishmaniasis in the East Mediterranean region.

International journal of environmental health research [Epub ahead of print].

Phlebotomus neglectus is one of the most important vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe and Asia Minor. It was aimed to study the impact of climate change on the seasonality and the range of the species for 2014-2060. In the inland areas of Asia Minor, the Balkan Peninsula and the Carpathian Basin the elongation of the activity season will reach or exceed the two months in the middle of the 21st century compared to the end of the 20th century. The most affected regions are the middle elevations of the mountainous regions and the plains of the northern distribution areas. In some areas of the southern distribution border, the season is expected to shorten. In the Apennine Peninsula, mainly the mountainous areas could be impacted notably by climate change. The results indicate the potential spread of leishmaniasis in Southeast Europe due to the increasing environmental suitability of the region.

RevDate: 2019-12-20

Swinburn B (2020)

The Obesity and Climate Change Nexus.

Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), 28(1):8.

RevDate: 2019-12-20

Misseri G, Ippolito M, A Cortegiani (2019)

Global warming "heating up" the ICU through Candida auris infections: the climate changes theory.

Critical care (London, England), 23(1):416 pii:10.1186/s13054-019-2702-4.

RevDate: 2019-12-19

Doubleday A, Errett NA, Ebi KL, et al (2019)

Indicators to Guide and Monitor Climate Change Adaptation in the US Pacific Northwest.

American journal of public health [Epub ahead of print].

Objectives. To develop a set of indicators to guide and monitor climate change adaptation in US state and local health departments.Methods. We performed a narrative review of literature on indicators of climate change adaptation and public health service capacity, mapped the findings onto activities grouped by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Ten Essential Services, and drafted potential indicators to discuss with practitioners. We then refined the indicators after key informant interviews with 17 health department officials in the US Pacific Northwest in fall 2018.Results. Informants identified a need for clarity regarding state and local public health's role in climate change adaptation, integration of adaptation into existing programs, and strengthening of communication, partnerships, and response capacity to increase resilience. We propose a set of climate change indicators applicable for state and local health departments.Conclusions. With additional context-specific refinement, the proposed indicators can aid agencies in tracking adaptation efforts. The generalizability, robustness, and relevance of the proposed indicators should be explored in other settings with a broader set of stakeholders. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print December 19, 2019: e1-e9. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305403).

RevDate: 2019-12-19

Il Choi H (2019)

Assessment of Aggregation Frameworks for Composite Indicators in Measuring Flood Vulnerability to Climate Change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):19371 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-55994-y.

The IPCC Third Assessment Report presents a conceptual framework for vulnerability to climate change with the three attribute components of exposure, sensitivity, and coping. Since the vulnerability assessments have been conducted mainly by the composite indicators aggregated from the IPCC's components, it is necessary to assess aggregation frameworks for constructing the composite indicators that have an influence on vulnerability assessment outcomes. This study therefore investigates the robustness of assessment outcomes for flood vulnerability to climate change through a comparative analysis of the six vulnerability indicators aggregated from the IPCC's components by the conventional aggregation frameworks. The comparative analysis has been illustrated through both the possible combinations of reference values for vulnerability attribute components and a case study on the flood vulnerability assessment to climate change for coastal areas in the Republic of Korea. The study demonstrates that there can be large fluctuations and reversals in ranking orders across the six vulnerability outcomes by different aggregation frameworks. It concludes that for flood vulnerability assessment to climate change in coastal areas, the vulnerability indicator needs to be aggregated by a multiplicative utility function from all the three assessment components with positive elasticity to vulnerability.

RevDate: 2019-12-18

Rühlemann A, JC Jordan (2019)

Risk perception and culture: implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change.

Disasters [Epub ahead of print].

Perceptions of climate change play a critical role in determining how at-risk people are. The significance of culture for understanding why people perceive and respond to climate change in particular ways is largely ignored in mainstream climate change adaptation. This paper applies a critical realist approach to examine the socio-cultural structures and causal mechanisms for inaction or (in)effective action between at-risk people and the organisations responsible for dealing with climate change. Findings show that there are varying context-specific sub-narratives among heterogeneous groups of people at risk and organisations that lead to inaction or (in)effective action in response to climate change, often independent of risk perceptions and with unforeseen consequences for at-risk people's vulnerabilities. Specifically, sub-narratives may create parallel and/or conflicting climate perceptions and respective responses, legitimise unequal resource distribution, and justify the suppression and/or capitalisation of sub-cultural and/or individual risk perceptions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )