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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 25 Oct 2020 at 01:51 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)


RevDate: 2020-10-24

Tollefson J (2019)

Canadian kids sue government over climate change.

RevDate: 2020-10-24

Calleja-Agius J, England K, N Calleja (2020)

The effect of global warming on mortality.

There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C. This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution. Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.

RevDate: 2020-10-24

Adhikari M, Isaac EL, Paterson RRM, et al (2020)

A Review of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Cultivation and Mycotoxigenic Fungi.

Microorganisms, 8(10): pii:microorganisms8101625.

Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the world. It plays a significant role in the global economy, employing over 125 million people. However, it is possible that this vital crop is threatened by changing climate conditions and fungal infections. This paper reviews how suitable areas for coffee cultivation and the toxigenic fungi species of Aspergillus, Penicillium, and Fusarium will be affected due to climate change. By combining climate models with species distribution models, a number of studies have investigated the future distribution of coffee cultivation. Studies predict that suitable coffee cultivation area could drop by ~50% under representation concentration pathway (RCP) 6.0 by 2050 for both Arabica and Robusta. These findings agree with other studies which also see an altitudinal migration of suitable cultivation areas to cooler regions, but limited scope for latitudinal migration owing to coffee's inability to tolerate seasonal temperature changes. Increased temperatures will see an overall increase in mycotoxin production such as aflatoxins, particularly in mycotoxigenic fungi (e.g., Aspergillus flavus) more suited to higher temperatures. Arabica and Robusta's limited ability to relocate means both species will be grown in less suitable climates, increasing plant stress and making coffee more susceptible to fungal infection and mycotoxins. Information regarding climate change parameters with respect to mycotoxin concentrations in real coffee samples is provided and how the changed climate affects mycotoxins in non-coffee systems is discussed. In a few areas where relocating farms is possible, mycotoxin contamination may decrease due to the "parasites lost" phenomenon. More research is needed to include the effect of mycotoxins on coffee under various climate change scenarios, as currently there is a significant knowledge gap, and only generalisations can be made. Future modelling of coffee cultivation, which includes the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilisation and forest management, is also required; however, all indications show that climate change will have an extremely negative effect on future coffee production worldwide in terms of both a loss of suitable cultivation areas and an increase in mycotoxin contamination.

RevDate: 2020-10-23

Getson JM, Sjöstrand AE, Church SP, et al (2020)

Do scientists have a responsibility to provide climate change expertise to mitigation and adaptation strategies? Perspectives from climate professionals.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Although the scientific community has reached a consensus that anthropogenic climate change is a severe and pressing issue, climate change remains a contentious debate with the United States public. Through a survey (N = 273), we explored climate professionals' perspectives on their role and responsibility to promote climate change adaptation/mitigation strategies related to agroecosystems. They believed that climate professionals have a social responsibility to provide scientific input to both policymakers and the public. There was strong agreement that media, political, and public support is necessary for development, and near unanimous agreement for implementation, of climate change mitigation/adaptation strategies. This study highlights the climate professionals' perceptions of their responsibility to provide scientific input, but also demonstrates that they believe the responsibility does not rest solely on their shoulders. Further research should explore scientists' perceptions of their and others' policy roles and scientists' interactions with different influencers of adaptation/mitigation policy.

RevDate: 2020-10-23

Olson DM, GAS Metz (2020)

Climate change is a major stressor causing poor pregnancy outcomes and child development.

F1000Research, 9:.

The climate crisis is the existential threat of our times and for generations to come. This is no longer a threat but a reality affecting us, our children, and the generations that follow. Pregnant mothers, their fetuses, and their children are among those at greatest risk in every population and every jurisdiction. A timely consideration is the health of racialized groups who are particularly vulnerable owing to the confluence of several risk factors that are compounded by climate change. Included among these are Indigenous communities that are the most directly threatened by climate change. This review discusses the main health challenges faced by mothers, fathers, and their children during the climate crisis, focusing on mental health as a causal factor. Exploration of this topic includes the role of prenatal maternal and paternal stresses, allostatic load, and the effect of degradation of the environment and ecosystems on individuals. These will be examined in relation to adverse pregnancy outcomes and altered developmental trajectories of children. The climate crisis is a health threat multiplier that amplifies the health inequities of the most at-risk populations and individuals. It accelerates the increase in allostatic load of those at risk. The path of tragedy begins with an accumulating allostatic load that overwhelms both individual and socio-ecological resilience. This can lead to worse mental health including depression and anxiety and, in the case of pregnant women and their children, more adverse pregnancy outcomes and impaired developmental trajectories for their newborn children. We argue that there is an urgent need to develop new (or re-discover or re-purpose existing) tools that will predict communities and individuals who are experiencing the highest levels of climate-related hazards and intervene to reduce stress and increase resilience in pre-conceptual women and men, pregnant and post-partum women, and their young children.

RevDate: 2020-10-23

Trubovitz S, Lazarus D, Renaudie J, et al (2020)

Marine plankton show threshold extinction response to Neogene climate change.

Nature communications, 11(1):5069 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-18879-7.

Ongoing climate change is predicted to trigger major shifts in the geographic distribution of marine plankton species. However, it remains unclear whether species will successfully track optimal habitats to new regions, or face extinction. Here we show that one significant zooplankton group, the radiolaria, underwent a severe decline in high latitude species richness presaged by ecologic reorganization during the late Neogene, a time of amplified polar cooling. We find that the majority (71%) of affected species did not relocate to the warmer low latitudes, but went extinct. This indicates that some plankton species cannot track optimal temperatures on a global scale as assumed by ecologic models; instead, assemblages undergo restructuring and extinction once local environmental thresholds are exceeded. This pattern forewarns profound diversity loss of high latitude radiolaria in the near future, which may have cascading effects on the ocean food web and carbon cycle.

RevDate: 2020-10-23

Pathak TB, Maskey ML, JP Rijal (2020)

Impact of climate change on navel orangeworm, a major pest of tree nuts in California.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(20)36186-6 [Epub ahead of print].

California's agricultural sector is the highest valued agricultural sector in the United States. It is also a global leader in the production of various specialty crops, including three major tree nuts - almond, walnut, and pistachio. These three nut crops accounted for approximately 16% of the state's total agricultural economy. Current and future changes in climate pose many challenges in agriculture and impacts related to increased pest pressure in agriculture due to elevated temperatures are significant. The navel orangeworm, Amyelois transitella (Walker), is the most challenging pest of tree nuts in California and often cause a significant economic loss despite the careful implementation of multiple pest control tactics. Temperature variations can directly affect the developmental rates, behavior, and overall population dynamics of this pest, and it is critically important to understand these dynamics with respect to climate change. The objective of this study was to quantify changes in the timing and number of navel orangeworm generations in almonds, walnuts, and pistachios for the entire Central Valley of California using projections from ten general circulation models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios. The results suggest that navel orangeworm is likely to complete its life cycle much faster under climate change due to projected temperature increases. The results also suggest that under future climate change, navel orangeworm can complete one additional generation within the growing season and likely going to pose significant risks to these major nut industries in the future. Quantifying navel orangeworm generations and assessing risks to tree nuts under climate change can help facilitate and strategize integrated pest management (IPM) practices to the sustainability of the production systems by minimizing risks.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Piovezan-Borges AC, Valente-Neto F, Tadei WP, et al (2020)

Simulated climate change, but not predation risk, accelerates Aedes aegypti emergence in a microcosm experiment in western Amazonia.

PloS one, 15(10):e0241070 pii:PONE-D-20-07577.

Climate change affects individual life-history characteristics and species interactions, including predator-prey interactions. While effects of warming on Aedes aegypti adults are well known, clarity the interactive effects of climate change (temperature and CO2 concentration) and predation risk on the larval stage remains unexplored. In this study, we performed a microcosm experiment simulating temperature and CO2 changes in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, for the year 2100. Simulated climate change scenarios (SCCS) were in accordance with the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Used SCCS were: Control (real-time current conditions in Manaus: average temperature is ~25.76°C ± 0.71°C and ~477.26 ± 9.38 parts per million by volume (ppmv) CO2); Light: increase of ~1,7°C and ~218 ppmv CO2; Intermediate: increase of ~2.4°C and ~446 ppmv CO2; and Extreme: increase of ~4.5°C and ~861 ppmv CO2, all increases were relative to a Control SCCS. Light, Intermediate and Extreme SCCS reproduced, respectively, the B1, A1B, and A2 climatic scenarios predicted by IPCC (2007). We analyzed Aedes aegypti larval survivorship and adult emergence pattern with a factorial design combining predation risk (control and predator presence-Toxorhynchites haemorrhoidalis larvae) and SCCS. Neither SCCS nor predation risk affected Aedes aegypti larval survivorship, but adult emergence pattern was affected by SCCS. Accordingly, our results did not indicate interactive effects of SCCS and predation risk on larval survivorship and emergence pattern of Aedes aegypti reared in SCCS in western Amazonia. Aedes aegypti is resistant to SCCS conditions tested, mainly due to high larval survivorship, even under Extreme SCCS, and warmer scenarios increase adult Aedes aegypti emergence. Considering that Aedes aegypti is a health problem in western Amazonia, an implication of our findings is that the use of predation cues as biocontrol strategies will not provide a viable means of controlling the accelerated adult emergence expected under the IPCC climatic scenarios.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Klingelhöfer D, Müller R, Braun M, et al (2020)

Climate change: Does international research fulfill global demands and necessities?.

Environmental sciences Europe, 32(1):137.

Background: Climate change is safe to be one of the biggest challenges of mankind. Human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels, contribute to the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus to the pace of climate change. The effects of climate change are already being felt, and the resulting damage will most likely be enormous worldwide. Because global impacts vary widely and will lead to very different national vulnerability to climate impacts, each country, depending on its economic background, has different options to ward off negative impacts. Decisions have to be made to mitigate climate consequences according to the preparedness and the vulnerability of countries against the presumed impacts. This requires a profound scientific basis. To provide sound background information, a bibliometric study was conducted to present global research on climate change using established and specific parameters. Bibliometric standard parameters, established socioeconomic values, and climate change specific indices were used for the analyses. This allowed us to provide an overall picture of the global research pattern not only in terms of general aspects, but also in terms of climate change impacts, its effects and regional differences. For this purpose, we choose representative indices, such as the CO2 emissions for the responsibility of countries, the global climate risk index as a combination value for the different types of damage that countries can expect, the increase in sea level as a specific parameter as a measure of the huge global environmental impacts, and the readiness and vulnerability index for the different circumstances of individual countries under which climate change will take place. We hope to have thus made a comprehensive and representative selection of specific parameters that is sufficient to map the global research landscape. We have supplemented the methodology accordingly.

Results: In terms of absolute publication numbers, the USA was the leading country, followed by the UK, and China in 3rd place. The steep rise in Chinese publication numbers over time came into view, while their citation numbers are relatively low. Scandinavian countries were leading regarding their publication numbers related to CO2 emission and socioeconomic indices. Only three developing countries stand out in all analyses: Costa Rica, the Fiji Atoll, and Zimbabwe, although it is here that the climate impact will be greatest. A positive correlation between countries' preparedness for the impacts of climate change and their publication numbers could be shown, while the correlation between countries' vulnerability and their publication numbers was negative.

Conclusions: We could show that there exists an inequity between national research efforts according to the publication output and the demands and necessities of countries related to their socioeconomic status. This inequity calls for a rethink, a different approach, and a different policy to improve countries' preparedness and mitigation capacity, which requires the inclusion of the most affected regions of the world in a strengthened international cooperation network.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Rhoné B, Defrance D, Berthouly-Salazar C, et al (2020)

Pearl millet genomic vulnerability to climate change in West Africa highlights the need for regional collaboration.

Nature communications, 11(1):5274 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-19066-4.

Climate change is already affecting agro-ecosystems and threatening food security by reducing crop productivity and increasing harvest uncertainty. Mobilizing crop diversity could be an efficient way to mitigate its impact. We test this hypothesis in pearl millet, a nutritious staple cereal cultivated in arid and low-fertility soils in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyze the genomic diversity of 173 landraces collected in West Africa together with an extensive climate dataset composed of metrics of agronomic importance. Mapping the pearl millet genomic vulnerability at the 2050 horizon based on the current genomic-climate relationships, we identify the northern edge of the current areas of cultivation of both early and late flowering varieties as being the most vulnerable to climate change. We predict that the most vulnerable areas will benefit from using landraces that already grow in equivalent climate conditions today. However, such seed-exchange scenarios will require long distance and trans-frontier assisted migrations. Leveraging genetic diversity as a climate mitigation strategy in West Africa will thus require regional collaboration.

RevDate: 2020-10-21

Alexander M (2019)

Sustainability and spinal cord injury: attending to climate change and disability.

Spinal cord series and cases, 5(1):88 pii:10.1038/s41394-019-0232-6.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Li Z, Li Q, Wang J, et al (2020)

Corrigendum to "Impacts of projected climate change on runoff in upper reach of Heihe River basin using climate elasticity method and GCMs" [Sci. Total Environ., 716 (2020) 137072].

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Longbottom J, Caminade C, Gibson HS, et al (2020)

Modelling the impact of climate change on the distribution and abundance of tsetse in Northern Zimbabwe.

Parasites & vectors, 13(1):526 pii:10.1186/s13071-020-04398-3.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is predicted to impact the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Tsetse flies (Glossina) transmit species of Trypanosoma that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis. A previous modelling study showed that temperature increases between 1990 and 2017 can explain the observed decline in abundance of tsetse at a single site in the Mana Pools National Park of Zimbabwe. Here, we apply a mechanistic model of tsetse population dynamics to predict how increases in temperature may have changed the distribution and relative abundance of Glossina pallidipes across northern Zimbabwe.

METHODS: Local weather station temperature measurements were previously used to fit the mechanistic model to longitudinal G. pallidipes catch data. To extend the use of the model, we converted MODIS land surface temperature to air temperature, compared the converted temperatures with available weather station data to confirm they aligned, and then re-fitted the mechanistic model using G. pallidipes catch data and air temperature estimates. We projected this fitted model across northern Zimbabwe, using simulations at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution, between 2000 to 2016.

RESULTS: We produced estimates of relative changes in G. pallidipes mortality, larviposition, emergence rates and abundance, for northern Zimbabwe. Our model predicts decreasing tsetse populations within low elevation areas in response to increasing temperature trends during 2000-2016. Conversely, we show that high elevation areas (> 1000 m above sea level), previously considered too cold to sustain tsetse, may now be climatically suitable.

CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, the results of this research represent the first regional-scale assessment of temperature related tsetse population dynamics, and the first high spatial-resolution estimates of this metric for northern Zimbabwe. Our results suggest that tsetse abundance may have declined across much of the Zambezi Valley in response to changing climatic conditions during the study period. Future research including empirical studies is planned to improve model accuracy and validate predictions for other field sites in Zimbabwe.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Czeszczewik D, Czortek P, Jaroszewicz B, et al (2020)

Climate change has cascading effects on tree masting and the breeding performance of a forest songbird in a primeval forest.

The Science of the total environment, 747:142084.

Forest habitats change significantly under the influence of global warming. It is important to predict the effects of these changes, especially in primeval forests which currently represent a small percentage of temperate forests. Such changes often manifest themselves in an acceleration of the frequency of mass seeding of trees, which causes cascading effects in various organisms. We evaluated changes in: tree masts (oak Quercus robur and hornbeam Carpinus betulus), rodent abundance (yellow-necked mouse Apodemus flavicollis), folivorous caterpillar abundance (winter moth Operophtera brumata), and the breeding success of a cavity-nesting songbird (collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis) in over a 30-year period in the Białowieża Forest (E Poland). We also analysed temperature, precipitation and snow cover to determine the effects of weather on each trophic level. Previous studies have exposed the indirect effect of tree masting on songbirds breeding in open nests. Our study uniquely highlights the relationships between trees, rodents, caterpillars, and a cavity-nesting bird. Precipitation was positively correlated with the fructification of trees, abundance of caterpillars, and the breeding losses of flycatchers (in July, August, October in the previous year, in May in the current year, respectively). We found that along with the changing climate, the frequency of mast years of oak increased, which caused an increasing frequency of rodent outbreaks. The abundance of mice was positively correlated with the predation on flycatcher broods (current year) and negatively - with the abundance of caterpillars (following year). We predict that current global trends in climate change will have a negative impact on the flycatcher due to the cascading effects from the above species. Bearing in mind that F. albicollis is one of the most numerous bird species, it can be assumed that more frequent masting will result in substantial changes in the entire bird assemblage, and presumably also other groups of animals.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Jaatinen K, Westerbom M, Norkko A, et al (2020)

Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density dependent population regulation in blue mussels.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry, or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year data set on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. 4. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density-dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e., low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

C John C (2020)

Something Big that Matters: The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene's Commitment to Combat Climate Change.

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene [Epub ahead of print].

Something Big that Matters: The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene's Commitment to Combat Climate Change.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Jones AR, Jessop TS, Ariefiandy A, et al (2020)

Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming.

Ecology and evolution, 10(19):10492-10507 pii:ECE36705.

The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island-endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea-level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species' future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range-wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%-87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%-97% and declines of 27%-99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands' status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Butler CJ, M Larson (2020)

Climate change winners and losers: The effects of climate change on five palm species in the Southeastern United States.

Ecology and evolution, 10(19):10408-10425 pii:ECE36697.

Palms (Arecaceae) are a relatively speciose family and provide materials for food, construction, and handicraft, especially in the tropics. They are frequently used as paleo-indicators for megathermal climates, and therefore, it is logical to predict that palms will benefit from predicted warmer temperatures under anthropogenic climate change. We created species distribution models to explore the projected ranges of five widespread southeastern North American palm species (Rhapidophyllum hystrix, Sabal etonia, Sabal minor, Sabal palmetto, and Serenoa repens) under four climate change scenarios through 2070. We project that the amount of habitat with >50% suitability for S. etonia will decline by a median of 50% by 2070, while the amount of habitat with >50% suitability S. minor will decline by a median of 97%. In contrast, the amount of suitable habitat for Rhapidophyllum hystrix will remain stable, while the amount of suitable habitat for Serenoa repens will slightly increase. The projected distribution for S. palmetto will increase substantially, by a median of approximately 21% across all scenarios. The centroid of the range of each species will shift generally north at a median rate of 23.5 km/decade. These five palm species have limited dispersal ability and require a relatively long time to mature and set fruit. Consequently, it is likely that the change in the distribution of these palms will lag behind the projected changes in climate. However, Arecaceae can modify physiological responses to heat and drought, which may permit these palms to persist as local conditions become increasingly inappropriate. Nonetheless, this plasticity is unlikely to indefinitely prevent local extinctions.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Des M, Martínez B, deCastro M, et al (2020)

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of habitat-forming macroalgae in the Rías Baixas.

Marine environmental research, 161:105074.

In the current scenario of climate change characterized by a generalized warming, many species are facing local extinctions in areas with conditions near their thermal tolerance threshold. At present, the southern limit of the geographical distribution of several habitat-forming algae of cold-temperate affinities is located in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, and the Rías Baixas may be acting as contemporary refugia at the range edge. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future changes induced by ocean warming in this area that may induce changes in macroalgae populations. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with climatic data was used to calculate July-August sea surface temperature (SST) for the present (1999-2018) and for the far future (2080-2099). Mean daily SST was used to develop and calibrate a mechanistic geographical distribution model based on the thermal survival threshold of two intertidal habitat-forming macroalgae, namely Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F.Gray and Bifurcaria bifurcata R. Ross. Results show that H. elongata will become extinct in the Rías Baixas by the end of the century, while B. bifurcata will persist and may occupy potential free space left by the decline in H. elongata.

RevDate: 2020-10-18

Ribeiro K, Pacheco FS, Ferreira JW, et al (2020)

Tropical peatlands and their contribution to the global carbon cycle and climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Peatlands are carbon-rich ecosystems that cover 185-423 million hectares of the earth's surface. The majority of the world's peatlands are in temperate and boreal zones, whereas tropical ones cover only a total area of 90-170 million hectares. However, there are still considerable uncertainties in C stock estimates as well as a lack of information about depth, bulk density and carbon accumulation rates. The incomplete data is notable especially in tropical peatlands located in South America, which are estimated to have the largest area of peatlands in the tropical zone. This paper displays the current state of knowledge surrounding tropical peatlands and their biophysical characteristics, distribution and carbon stock, role in the global climate, the impacts of direct human disturbances on carbon accumulation rates and greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the new peat extension and depth data, we estimate that tropical peatlands store 152-288 GtC, or about half of the global peatland emitted carbon. We discuss the knowledge gaps in research on distribution, depth, C stock and fluxes in these ecosystems which play an important role in the global carbon cycle and risk releasing large quantities of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (CO2 and CH4) when subjected to anthropogenic interferences (e.g. drainage and deforestation). Recent studies show that although climate change has an impact on the carbon fluxes of these ecosystems, the direct anthropogenic disturbance may play a greater role. The future of these systems as carbon sinks will depend on advancing current scientific knowledge and incorporating local understanding to support policies geared toward managing and conserving peatlands in vulnerable regions, such as the Amazon where recent records show increased forest fires and deforestation.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Rahman MM, Bodrud-Doza M, Shammi M, et al (2020)

COVID-19 pandemic, dengue epidemic, and climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh: Scenario assessment for strategic management and policy implications.

Environmental research [Epub ahead of print].

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts also struck by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown measures were ineffective with no sign of flattening the curve. Therefore, the high risk of transmission is evident with an increasing number of affected people. Under this circumstance, a multiple hazards scenario can be developed in this country due to climatic hazards such as cyclones, floods, landslides, heat waves, and the outbreak of infectious diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhoea. The country experiences simultaneously the global pandemic, exceptionally prolonged flood along with the recovery stage from the damages due to the cyclone (Amphan). Therefore, these multiple factors have been putting pressure on losing millions of homes, livelihoods, and agricultural crops. This study aimed to assess the potential impact of a simultaneous strike of climatic hazards and infectious disease outbreaks and their possible strategic management in Bangladesh under different scenarios. A mixed methodological approach was followed in this study including a questionnaire survey, in-depth discussion with experts, and extensive literature review to assess the multi-hazard scenario in a resource-limited setting with high population density. A set of statistical techniques were used to analyze the responses (n=1590) from different social groups (healthcare professionals, academicians, students, Government and NGO officials, and businessman) under three scenarios. The results revealed the high possibility of aggravating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic if there is a climatic hazard such as flood, cyclone have appeared. The majority of the respondents agreed that the situation will become more devastating if there is another outbreak of diseases such as dengue, cholera, and diarrhea. The poor and fragile healthcare system of this country cannot bear such unprecedented pressure. The lack of risk assessment and communication, lack of sectoral coordination might restrict the contingency plan of the government. Therefore, considering the unprecedented worst cases a stringent strategic plan for emergency response, short term and long-term management should have to be formulated. Resilience building through proactive planning and implementation of integrated, inclusive and sustainable strategies will be effective to ensure the health and socio-economic security for multi-hazard threats in the country.

RevDate: 2020-10-18

Zammit C, Torzhenskaya N, Ozarkar PD, et al (2020)

Neurological disorders vis-à-vis climate change.

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges humanity is facing in the 21st century. Two recognized sequelae of climate change are global warming and air pollution. The gradual increase in ambient temperature, coupled with elevated pollution levels have a devastating effect on our health, potentially contributing to the increased rate and severity of numerous neurological disorders. The main aim of this review paper is to shed some light on the association between the phenomena of global warming and air pollution, and two of the most common and debilitating neurological conditions: stroke and neurodegenerative disorders. Extreme ambient temperatures induce neurological impairment and increase stroke incidence and mortality. Global warming does not participate in the etiology of neurodegenerative disorders, but it exacerbates symptoms of dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's Disease (PD). A very close link exists between accumulated levels of air pollutants (principally particulate matter), and the incidence of ischemic rather than hemorrhagic strokes. People exposed to air pollutants have a higher risk of developing dementia and AD, but not PD. Oxidative stress, changes in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular haemodynamics, excitotoxicity, microglial activation, and cellular apoptosis, all play a central role in the overlap of the effect of climate change on neurological disorders. The complex interactions between global warming and air pollution, and their intricate effect on the nervous system, imply that future policies aimed to mitigate climate change must address these two challenges in unison.

RevDate: 2020-10-17

An R, Shen J, Li Y, et al (2020)

Projecting the Influence of Global Warming on Physical Activity Patterns: a Systematic Review.

Current obesity reports pii:10.1007/s13679-020-00406-w [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This study systematically identified and synthesized empirical data-driven modeling studies that projected the future influence of global warming on people's physical activity patterns.

RECENT FINDINGS: A total of ten studies met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Global warming, in general, was predicted to be associated with a net increase in active commuting and leisure-time physical activity. However, the specific relationship between climate change and future physical activity patterns was expected to vary by the periods of prediction, geographical locations, population subgroups, and seasons. Moreover, the positive association between global warming and physical activity could level off or be reversed once reaching a temperature threshold. Preliminary evidence suggested a net increase in physical activity by mid- to late-twenty-first century owing to global warming. Future studies should refine the projections by taking into account the indirect effect of global warming through induced natural and human events, and assess effective countermeasures to mitigate the negative impact of global warming on vulnerable population subgroups.

RevDate: 2020-10-20
CmpDate: 2020-10-20

Neves GL, Barbosa MAGA, Anjinho PDS, et al (2020)

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on streamflow through hydrological simulation and under downscaling scenarios: case study in a watershed in southeastern Brazil.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(11):707 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08671-x.

Among the problems related to water security, the effects of climate change on water availability stand out. Researchers have used hydrological models integrated with climate models in order to predict the streamflow behaviour in different hydrographic basins. This work aimed to analyse future climate scenarios for the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin, located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R was used in the simulation of climate data, which were used as input data in the hydrological model SMAP, after it was calibrated and validated for the study site. In all, five future scenarios were generated, with scenarios A, B, C and D projected based on the 5th report of the IPCC and scenario E based on the trend of climate data in the region. Among the scenarios generated, scenario D, which considers an increase of 4.8 °C in air temperature and a reduction of 10% in rainfall, is responsible for the worst water condition in the basin and can reduce up to 72.41% of the average flow and up to 55.50%, 54.18% and 38.17% of the low flow parameters Q90%, Q95% and Q7,10, respectively, until the end of the twenty-first century. However, the E scenario also becomes a matter of concern, since it was responsible for greater increases in temperature and greater reductions in rainfall and, consequently, more drastic monthly reductions in streamflow, which may negatively impact water resources and affect the various uses of water in the Ribeirão do Lobo River Basin.

RevDate: 2020-10-17

Scharsack JP, Wieczorek B, Schmidt-Drewello A, et al (2020)

Climate change facilitates a parasite's host exploitation via temperature-mediated immunometabolic processes.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Global climate change can influence organismic interactions like those between hosts and parasites. Rising temperatures may exacerbate the exploitation of hosts by parasites, especially in ectothermic systems. The metabolic activity of ectotherms is strongly linked to temperature and generally increases when temperatures rise. We hypothesised that temperature change in combination with parasite infection interferes with the host's immunometabolism. We used a parasite, the avian cestode Schistocephalus solidus, which taps most of its resources from the metabolism of an ectothermic intermediate host, the three-spined stickleback. We experimentally exposed sticklebacks to this parasite, and studied liver transcriptomes 50 days after infection at 13 and 24°C, to assess their immunometabolic responses. Furthermore, we monitored fitness parameters of the parasite and examined immunity and body condition of the sticklebacks at 13, 18, and 24°C after 36, 50, and 64 days of infection. At low temperatures (13°C), S. solidus growth was constrained, presumably also by the more active stickleback's immune system, thus delaying its infectivity for the final host to 64 days. Warmer temperature (18°C and 24°C) enhanced S. solidus growth, and it became infective to the final host already after 36 days. Overall, S. solidus produced many more viable offspring after development at elevated temperatures. In contrast, stickleback hosts had lower body conditions, and their immune system was less active at warm temperature. The stickleback's liver transcriptome revealed that mainly metabolic processes were differentially regulated between temperatures, whereas immune genes were not strongly affected. Temperature effects on gene expression were strongly enhanced in infected sticklebacks, and even in exposed-but-not-infected hosts. These data suggest that the parasite exposure in concert with rising temperature, as to be expected with global climate change, shifted the host's immunometabolism, thus providing nutrients for the enormous growth of the parasite and, at the same time suppressing immune defence.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Simon E, Canarini A, Martin V, et al (2020)

Microbial growth and carbon use efficiency show seasonal responses in a multifactorial climate change experiment.

Communications biology, 3(1):584.

Microbial growth and carbon use efficiency (CUE) are central to the global carbon cycle, as microbial remains form soil organic matter. We investigated how future global changes may affect soil microbial growth, respiration, and CUE. We aimed to elucidate the soil microbial response to multiple climate change drivers across the growing season and whether effects of multiple global change drivers on soil microbial physiology are additive or interactive. We measured soil microbial growth, CUE, and respiration at three time points in a field experiment combining three levels of temperature and atmospheric CO2, and a summer drought. Here we show that climate change-driven effects on soil microbial physiology are interactive and season-specific, while the coupled response of growth and respiration lead to stable microbial CUE (average CUE = 0.39). These results suggest that future research should focus on microbial growth across different seasons to understand and predict effects of global changes on soil carbon dynamics.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Roberts SM, Boustany AM, PN Halpin (2020)

Substrate-dependent fish have shifted less in distribution under climate change.

Communications biology, 3(1):586.

Analyses of the impacts of climate change on fish species have primarily considered dynamic oceanographic variables that are the output of predictive models, yet fish species distributions are determined by much more than just variables such as ocean temperature. Functionally diverse species are differentially influenced by oceanographic as well as physiographic variables such as bottom substrate, thereby influencing their ability to shift distributions. Here, we show that fish species distributions that are more associated with bottom substrate than other dynamic environmental variables have shifted significantly less over the last 30 years than species whose distributions are associated with bottom salinity. Correspondingly, species whose distributions are primarily determined by bottom temperature or ocean salinity have shifted their mean centroid and southern and northern range boundaries significantly more than species whose distributions are determined by substrate or depth. The influence of oceanographic versus static variables differs by species functional group, as benthic species distributions are more associated with substrate and they have shifted significantly less than pelagic species whose distributions are primarily associated with ocean temperatures. In conclusion, benthic fish, that are more influenced by substrate, may prove much less likely to shift distributions under future climate change.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Bonnail E, Borrero-Santiago AR, Nordtug T, et al (2020)

Climate change mitigation effects: How do potential CO2 leaks from a sub-seabed storage site in the Norwegian Sea affect Astarte sp. bivalves?.

Chemosphere, 264(Pt 2):128552 pii:S0045-6535(20)32747-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the most promising mitigation strategies for reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere and may substantially help to decelerate global warming. There is an increasing demand for CCS sites. Nevertheless, there is a lack of knowledge of the environmental risk associated with potential leakage of CO2 from the storage sites; and even more, what happens when the seepage stops. Can the environment return to the initial equilibrium? Potential effects on native macrofauna were studied under a scenario of a 50-day CO2 leakage, and the subsequent leak closure. To accomplish the objective, Trondheim Fjord sediments and clams were exposed to an acidified environment (pH 6.9) at 29 atm for 7 weeks followed by a 14-day recovery at normal seawater conditions (pH 8.0, 29 atm). Growth and survival of clams exposed to pressure (29 atm) and reduced pH (6.9) did not significantly differ from control clams kept at 1 atm in natural seawater. Furthermore, bioaccumulation of elements in the soft tissue of clams did not register significant variations for most of the analysed elements (Cd, Cr, Pb, and Ti), while other elements (As, Cu, Fe, Ni) had decreasing concentrations in tissues under acidified conditions in contrast to Na and Mg, which registered an uptake (Ku) of 111 and 9.92 μg g-1dw d-1, respectively. This Ku may be altered due to the stress induced by acidification; and the element concentration being released from sediments was not highly affected at that pH. Therefore, a 1 unit drop in pH at the seafloor for several weeks does not appear to pose a risk for the clams.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Frei T (2020)

Climate change in Switzerland: Impact on hazel, birch, and grass pollen on the basis of half a century of pollen records (1969 - 2018).

Allergologie select, 4:69-75.

As indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human activities are estimated to have caused ~ 1.0 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels. The impact of this global warming is diverse and pertains also plant biology. The start of the pollen season as well as the observed quantities of pollen have been considered indicators of the impact of climate change. Switzerland has one of the longest pollen time series now - more than half a century. It has been tested whether the impact of climate change is robust by checking with this long time series of different pollen like hazel, birch, and grass as prominent representatives of triggers of hay fever. The results indicate that based on a time series of 50 years, the pollen seasons of hazel, birch, and grass started earlier as the temperature increased. Comparing the annual amount of pollen, a relevant increase is only observed for hazel. However, it must be considered that in the observed 50 years there was a land use change from grass land to built-up land due to the increase of population, and yet certain pollen counts increased considerably.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Borg MA, P Bi (2020)

The impact of climate change on kidney health.

Nature reviews. Nephrology pii:10.1038/s41581-020-00365-4 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Chapman EJ, Byron CJ, Lasley-Rasher R, et al (2020)

Effects of climate change on coastal ecosystem food webs: Implications for aquaculture.

Marine environmental research, 162:105103 pii:S0141-1136(20)30503-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Coastal ecosystems provide important ecosystem services for millions of people. Climate change is modifying coastal ecosystem food web structure and function and threatens these essential ecosystem services. We used a combination of two new and one existing ecosystem food web models and altered scenarios that are possible with climate change to quantify the impacts of climate change on ecosystem stability in three coastal bays in Maine, United States. We also examined the impact of climate change on bivalve fisheries and aquaculture. Our modeled scenarios explicitly considered the predicted effects of future climatic change and human intervention and included: 1) the influence of increased terrestrial dissolved organic carbon loading on phytoplankton biomass; 2) benthic community change driven by synergisms between climate change, historical overfishing, and increased species invasion; and 3) altered trophic level energy transfer driven by ocean warming and acidification. The effects of climate change strongly negatively influenced ecosystem energy flow and ecosystem stability and negatively affected modeled bivalve carrying capacity in each of our models along the Maine coast of the eastern United States. Our results suggest that the interconnected nature of ecosystem food webs make them extremely vulnerable to synergistic effects of climate change. To better inform fisheries and aquaculture management, the effects of climate change must be explicitly incorporated.

RevDate: 2020-10-15

Bakhsh K, Latif A, Ali R, et al (2020)

Relationship between adaptation to climate change and provincial government expenditure in Pakistan.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-11182-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Public expenditures on adaptation to climate change have direct effects on budgets of governments. Such direct impacts on government budgetary allocation have been analyzed in the developed countries and very little research is available considering highly vulnerable and exposed developing countries which are facing huge threats of climate change. The current study is designed to bridge this information gap by examining the effects of climate change adaptation on public expenditures in Pakistan employing provincial level data over the period of 1990-2016. Adaptation expenditures included both overall government expenditures and expenditures on communal amenities and housing. In addition to a fixed effects estimation, we employed long difference model to analyze the impact in the long run. Results indicated that variations in temperature and rainfall were significantly related with public expenditures. Short run and long run scenarios showed that rising temperature caused an increase in public expenditures. The effect of rainfall on total public expenditure was positive and statistically significant while rainfall and expenditure incurred on communal amenities and housing were negatively related in the long run. The study posits important policy implications.

RevDate: 2020-10-15

Gould JR, Warden ML, Slager BH, et al (2020)

Host Overwintering Phenology and Climate Change Influence the Establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi Yang (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), a Larval Parasitoid Introduced for Biocontrol of the Emerald Ash Borer.

Journal of economic entomology pii:5924119 [Epub ahead of print].

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is one of the most serious forest pests in the United States. Ongoing research indicates that establishment of larval parasitoids depends upon the season-long availability of host stages susceptible to parasitism. We monitored emerald ash borer overwintering stages at 90 sites across 22 states to: 1) produce a model of the percentage of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae; 2) link that model to establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi; and 3) explore changes to our model under climate change scenarios. Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) is an important predictor of the proportion of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae (1-4 instar larvae under the bark; available to parasitoids emerging in spring) versus J-larvae (fourth-instar larvae in pupal chambers in the outer wood; unavailable to parasitoids). From north to south, the availability of non-J emerald ash borer larvae in the spring decreases as accumulated GDD increases. In areas where the model predicted >46-75%, >30-46%, >13-30%, or ≤13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae, the probability of establishment of T. planipennisi was 92%, 67%, 57%, and 21%, respectively. We determined that 13% of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae was the lowest threshold for expected T. planipennisi establishment. Additional modeling predicts that under climate change, establishment of T. planipennisi will be most affected in the Central United States, with areas that are currently suitable becoming unsuitable. Our results provide a useful tool for the emerald ash borer biological control program on how to economically and successfully deploy emerald ash borer biological control agents.

RevDate: 2020-10-14

Zhao Y, Guo J, Bao C, et al (2020)

Knowledge Graph Analysis of Human Health Research Related to Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(20): pii:ijerph17207395.

In order to explore the development status, knowledge base, research hotspots, and future research directions related to the impacts of climate change on human health, a systematic bibliometric analysis of 6719 published articles from 2003 to 2018 in the Web of Science was performed. Using data analytics tools such as HistCite and CiteSpace, the time distribution, spatial distribution, citations, and research hotspots were analyzed and visualized. The analysis revealed the development status of the research on the impacts of climate change on human health and analyzed the research hotspots and future development trends in this field, providing important knowledge support for researchers in this field.

RevDate: 2020-10-14

Zamora S, Sandoval-Herazo LC, Ballut-Dajud G, et al (2020)

Carbon Fluxes and Stocks by Mexican Tropical Forested Wetland Soils: A Critical Review of Its Role for Climate Change Mitigation.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(20): pii:ijerph17207372.

Wetland soils are important stores of soil carbon (C) in the biosphere, and play an important role in global carbon cycles in the response strategy to climate change. However, there areknowledge gaps in our understanding of the quantity and distribution in tropical regions. Specifically, Mexican wetlands have not been considered in global carbon budgets or carbon balances for a number of reasons, such as: (1) the lack of data, (2) Spanish publications have not been selected, or (3) because such balances are mainly made in the English language. This study analyzes the literature regarding carbon stocks, sequestration and fluxes in Mexican forested wetlands (Forest-W). Soil carbon stocks of 8, 24.5 and 40.1 kg cm-2 were detected for flooded palms, mangroves, and freshwater or swamps (FW) wetland soils, respectively, indicating that FW soils are the Forest-W with more potential for carbon sinks (p = 0.023), compared to mangroves and flooded palm soils. While these assessments of carbon sequestration were ranged from 36 to 920 g-C m-2 year-1, C emitted as methane was also tabulated (0.6-196 g-C m-2 year-1). Subtracting the C emitted of the C sequestered, 318.2 g-C m-2 year-1 were obtained. Such data revealed that Forest-W function is mainly as carbon sink, and not C source. This review can help to inform practitioners in future decisions regarding sustainable projects, restoration, conservation or creation of wetlands. Finally, it is concluded that Forest-W could be key ecosystems in strategies addressing the mitigation of climate change through carbon storage. However, new studies in this research line and public policies that protect these essential carbon sinks are necessary in order to, hopefully, elaborate global models to make more accurate predictions about future climate.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Shi S, Yu J, Wang F, et al (2020)

Quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes over multiple time scales on the Loess Plateau.

The Science of the total environment, 755(Pt 2):142419 pii:S0048-9697(20)35948-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Vegetation is a crucial component of terrestrial ecosystems, and its changes are driven mainly by a combination of climate change and human activities. This paper aims to reveal the relationship between vegetation and climate change by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and to find the cause of vegetation change by performing residual analysis on the Loess Plateau during the period from 2000 to 2016. The results showed that the NDVI on the Loess Plateau exhibited an increase of 0.086 per decade, and an increasing trend was observed across 94.86% of the total area. The relationship between the NDVI and SPEI was mainly positive, and the correlation increased as the time scale of the SPEI lengthened, indicating that long-term water availability was the major climate factor affecting vegetation growth. Residual analysis indicated that climate change was responsible for 45.78% of NDVI variation, while human activities were responsible for 54.22%. In areas with degraded vegetation, the relative roles of climate change and human activities were 28.11% and 72.89%, respectively. In addition, the relative role of climate change increased with an increase in the time scales, implying that the long-term NDVI trend was more sensitive to climate change then the short-term trend. The results of this study are expected to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes under climate change and human activities and provide a scientific basis for future ecological restoration in arid regions.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Srinivasan U, DS Wilcove (2020)

Interactive impacts of climate change and land-use change on the demography of montane birds.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and habitat degradation are amongst the two greatest threats to biodiversity. Together, they can interact to harm species. However, how climate change and land-use change jointly affect the demographic vital rates that underpin population viability remains unknown. Here, using long-term data on birds from the increasingly degraded and rapidly warming Himalayas, we show that survival trends over time are linked to species' elevational ranges in primary, but not in selectively-logged forest. In primary forest, populations at their cold-edge elevational range limit show increases in survival rates over time, while those at their warm-edge elevational range limit suffer survival declines. This pattern is consistent with species tracking favourable climatic conditions over time, leading to improved demographic outcomes at progressively higher elevations with climate change, which in turn lead to upslope range shifts. In logged forest, however, survival rates remain relatively constant over time. This suggests that in response to climate change in the long term, individuals of the same species can maintain demographic vital rates in higher-elevation primary forest, but not in logged forest. This is the first demonstration of how two of the most disruptive anthropogenic influences on biodiversity interact to threaten survivorship in natural populations. Ignoring interactions between climate change and land-use change can potentially undermine accurate forecasting of the future of species in an increasingly warm and degraded world. Importantly, large tracts of well-protected primary forests across Earth's tropical elevational gradients may be essential to enable tropical montane species to persist in the face of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Balsari S, Dresser C, J Leaning (2020)

Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife.

Current environmental health reports [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this article, we examine the intersection of human migration and climate change. Growing evidence that changing environmental and climate conditions are triggers for displacement, whether voluntary or forced, adds a powerful argument for profound anticipatory engagement.

RECENT FINDINGS: Climate change is expected to displace vast populations from rural to urban areas, and when life in the urban centers becomes untenable, many will continue their onward migration elsewhere (Wennersten and Robbins 2017; Rigaud et al. 2018). It is now accepted that the changing climate will be a threat multiplier, will exacerbate the need or decision to migrate, and will disproportionately affect large already vulnerable sections of humanity. Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth's surface mainly in the Sahara. We find that the post-World War II regime designed to receive European migrants has failed to address population movement in the latter half of the twentieth century fueled by economic want, globalization, opening (and then closing) borders, civil strife, and war. Key stakeholders are in favor of using existing instruments to support a series of local, regional, and international arrangements to protect environmental migrants, most of whom will not cross international borders. The proposal for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention has largely come from academia and NGOs. Migration is now recognized not only as a consequence of instability but as an adaptation strategy to the changing climate. Migration must be anticipated as a certainty, and thereby planned for and supported.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Gross M (2020)

Disease in the times of climate change.

Current biology : CB, 30(19):R1104-R1106.

As human influences change the planet including the composition of oceans and the atmosphere and thus the climate, the microbial world is bound to change and adapt as well. Like individual microbes themselves, these changes are invisible to us. The first indication we are likely to notice is the pattern and severity of diseases affecting wildlife, crops and ourselves. Michael Gross reports.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Butt N, Chauvenet ALM, Adams VM, et al (2020)

Importance of species translocations under rapid climate change.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Levendis YA, Kowalski G, Lu Y, et al (2020)

A simple experiment on global warming.

Royal Society open science, 7(9):192075.

A simple experiment has been developed to demonstrate the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas in the Earth's atmosphere. A miniature electric resistance heating element was placed inside an inflatable balloon. The balloon was filled with either air or CO2. Whereas the CO2 partial pressure on the earth's atmosphere is approximately 4 × 10-4 atm, in this experiment, a high partial pressure of CO2 (1 atm) was used to compensate for the short radiation absorption path in the balloon. The element was heated to approximately 50°C, the power was then switched off and the element's cooling trends in air and in CO2 were monitored. It took a longer time to cool the heating element back to ambient temperature in CO2 than in air. It also took longer times to cool the element in larger size balloons and in pressurized balloons when they were filled with CO2. To the contrary, the balloon size or pressure made no difference when the balloons were filled with air. A simple mathematical model was developed, and it confirmed that the radiative heat loss from the element decreased significantly in CO2. This investigation showed that the cooling rate of an object, with surface temperature akin to temperatures found on Earth, is reduced in a CO2-rich atmosphere because of the concomitant lower heat loss to its environment.

RevDate: 2020-10-14
CmpDate: 2020-10-14

Wannous C (2020)

Climate change and other risk drivers of animal health and zoonotic disease emergencies: the need for a multidisciplinary and multisectoral approach to disaster risk management.

Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics), 39(2):461-470.

In recent times, there has been an increased focus on animal health and zoonotic diseases that have the potential to trigger epidemics or pandemics that disproportionately affect the poor and most vulnerable. The recent Ebola, Zika and COVID-19 outbreaks demonstrate the devastating human, social and economic impacts of such diseases if they are not prevented or controlled, ideally at source. The risk drivers for zoonoses, which are complex and often interdependent, include climate change and related disasters, antimicrobial resistance, and anthropogenic drivers such as land-use changes and animal production practices. Understanding these drivers requires a better understanding of the ecology of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal-environment interface. Biosecurity and biosafety are critical for reducing the risk of accidental or deliberate release and should be included in risk management strategies. International frameworks for sustainable development, climate change, and disaster risk reduction have all integrated health as one of the core areas of work, calling for better preparedness and response to biological hazards and increased health system resilience. To improve their ability to prevent, prepare for, and respond to emerging and re-emerging threats, countries should address these risk drivers, taking a multidisciplinary One Health approach that involves the animal and human health and environment sectors. Cross-border cooperation is also vital, as diseases know no boundaries.

RevDate: 2020-10-14
CmpDate: 2020-10-14

McManus CM, Rezende Paiva S, D Faria (2020)

Genomics and climate change.

Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics), 39(2):481-490.

Climate change is predicted to change the nature and distribution of global farming systems, and strategies will be needed to adapt and optimise global food-producing systems. If genomic technologies are to be useful in this scenario, there is a need for the careful definition of phenotypes and routine sample collection, as well as large-scale genotyping of animal populations. Genomic tools will greatly enhance the characterisation of available germplasm and exploration of local genetic resources, while faster and cheaper DNA sequencing is leading to an increased understanding of the underlying genetic basis of traits. The use of genomic tools to increase animal resilience, reduce methane emissions from cattle and sheep, improve disease resistance, decrease environmental impact, reduce competition for land and water and, finally, increase production may be the most feasible path for the future of livestock production. In this review, the authors discuss various genomic strategies in the light of climate change, focusing on the selection of resistant/tolerant animals, landscape genomics, metagenomics and gene editing.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Benveniste H, Oppenheimer M, M Fleurbaey (2020)

Effect of border policy on exposure and vulnerability to climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2007597117 [Epub ahead of print].

Migration may be increasingly used as adaptation strategy to reduce populations' exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Conversely, either through lack of information about risks at destinations or as outcome of balancing those risks, people might move to locations where they are more exposed to climatic risk than at their origin locations. Climate damages, whose quantification informs understanding of societal exposure and vulnerability, are typically computed by integrated assessment models (IAMs). Yet migration is hardly included in commonly used IAMs. In this paper, we investigate how border policy, a key influence on international migration flows, affects exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. To this aim, we include international migration and remittance dynamics explicitly in a widely used IAM employing a gravity model and compare four scenarios of border policy. We then quantify effects of border policy on population distribution, income, exposure, and vulnerability and of CO2 emissions and temperature increase for the period 2015 to 2100 along five scenarios of future development and climate change. We find that most migrants tend to move to areas where they are less exposed and vulnerable than where they came from. Our results confirm that migration and remittances can positively contribute to climate change adaptation. Crucially, our findings imply that restrictive border policy can increase exposure and vulnerability, by trapping people in areas where they are more exposed and vulnerable than where they would otherwise migrate. These results suggest that the consequences of migration policy should play a greater part in deliberations about international climate policy.

RevDate: 2020-10-12

Ready E, P Collings (2020)

"All the problems in the community are multifaceted and related to each other": Inuit concerns in an era of climate change.

American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVE: Human dimensions of climate change research in the Arctic often proposes ways for local communities to adapt to changes to their environment, foregrounding problems posed by climate change while treating social, political, and economic factors as background conditions. We explore the relevance of this research paradigm for Inuit by examining how Inuit from Kangiqsujuaq present and discuss the major issues facing their community.

METHODS: We thematically code and analyze the responses of 107 Inuit to three free-response questions about the problems facing their community and the best things about their community. The data were collected as part of a questionnaire for a project focused on food security and food sharing conducted in Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, in 2013 to 2014.

RESULTS: Few respondents mentioned issues relating to climate change among the most pressing problems faced by their community. Rather, a suite of interconnected social and economic issues, particularly substance abuse and the cost of living, emerged as the main concerns of Kangiqsujuarmiut. However, the environment was a central theme in respondents' favorite thing about their community.

CONCLUSIONS: In light of the concerns identified by Inuit, we argue that much research on climate change makes incorrect a priori assumptions and consequently fails to capture aspects of Arctic socioecological systems that are essential for how Inuit are responding to climate change. An inductive, open-ended approach can help produce research more relevant to communities.

RevDate: 2020-10-18

van Gemert TE, RG Moses (2020)

Climate change and an increased prevalence of gestational diabetes.

The Australian & New Zealand journal of obstetrics & gynaecology, 60(5):E14.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Sellevold R, M Vizcaíno (2020)

Global Warming Threshold and Mechanisms for Accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss.

Journal of advances in modeling earth systems, 12(9):e2019MS002029.

The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) is used to investigate the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) under an idealized CO2 forcing scenario of 1% increase until stabilization at 4× pre-industrial at model year 140. In this simulation, the SMB calculation is coupled with the atmospheric model, using a physically based surface energy balance scheme for melt, explicit calculation of snow albedo, and a realistic treatment of polar snow and firn compaction. By the end of the simulation (years 131-150), the SMB decreases with 994 Gt yr-1 with respect to the pre-industrial SMB, which represents a sea-level rise contribution of 2.8 mm yr-1. For a threshold of 2.7-K global temperature increase with respect to pre-industrial, the rate of expansion of the ablation area increases, the mass loss accelerates due to loss of refreezing capacity and accelerated melt, and the SMB becomes negative 6 years later. Before acceleration, longwave radiation is the most important contributor to increasing energy for melt. After acceleration, the large expansion of the ablation area strongly reduces surface albedo. This and much increased turbulent heat fluxes as the GrIS-integrated summer surface temperature approaches melt point become the major sources of energy for melt.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Raman S, Shameer TT, Charles B, et al (2020)

Habitat suitability model of endangered Latidens salimalii and the probable consequences of global warming.

Tropical ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Salim Ali's fruit bat, Latidens salimalii, is a monotypic endangered fruit bat endemic to Western Ghats (WG) with an ambiguous distribution. The distribution range, habitat suitability, and biology of this species are still uncertain. Endemic species inhabiting the high elevation of WG like L. salimalii are threatened due to climatic change and seeks urgent management interventions. Hence, we developed a habitat suitability model for L. salimalii using MaxEnt in the current climate condition and projected their distribution for three Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) climate scenarios of the 2070 time frame. The results show that 9531 km2of habitat in WG is suitable for L. salimalii at present, while all the future scenarios estimates propose complete loss of highly suitable habitat. The significant factors influencing the distribution of L. salimalii are the precipitation of the driest month, tree density, rain in the coldest quarter, canopy height, and altitude. The study pioneers in predicting the suitable habitat and emphasis the need to develop strategies for the long-term conservation of endangered L. salimalii in WG under global warming scenarios.

RevDate: 2020-10-11

Cuschieri S, JC Agius (2020)

The interaction between diabetes and climate change - A review on the dual global phenomena.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes and climate change are forefront global challenges of the 21st century. Both are on a progressive incline with intergenerational effects on the wellbeing, health and security of the population. The aim of this review was to explore the interconnection relationship between type 2 diabetes and climate change.

METHODS: A literature review search of MEDLINE publications from 2010 to March 2020 was performed. English-language articles using terms "diabetes" AND "climate change" OR "temperature change" OR "temperature rise" OR "hot temperature" OR "extreme heat" were reviewed.

RESULTS: Climate change and diabetes are interconnected through a direct and indirect pathway. Temperature changes can trigger a person's susceptibility to develop diabetes as well as impose adverse effects on those diagnosed with diabetes (such as increased incidence of hospitalization, dehydration and mortality). Both temperature extremes have been reported to lead to negative effects on diabetes. Concurrently, both phenomena have shared predisposing vectors (such as sedentary lifestyle, urbanisation, unhealthy diets) that lead to their progressive development.

CONCLUSION: A bidirectional relationship exists between type 2 diabetes and climate change. This relationship originates through a multifactorial pathway involving biological, social, environmental, geophysical and economic factors. An integrated action plan targeting the common predisposing vectors should be set up. This should support a low environmental impact while promoting equity and wellbeing.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Grech V, S Cuschieri (2020)

Some health effects of global warming.

RevDate: 2020-10-12

Zhao J, Zhan R, Wang Y, et al (2020)

Untangling impacts of global warming and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on long-term variability of North Pacific tropical cyclone track density.

Science advances, 6(41): pii:6/41/eaba6813.

How much the observed long-term variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is due to anthropogenic global warming (GW) or internal climate variability remains unclear, limiting the confidence in projected future change in TC activity. Here, the relative contributions of GW and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) to the long-term variability of TC track density (TCTD) over the North Pacific (NP) are quantified on the basis of statistical analyses and climate model simulations. Results show that historical GW mainly reduced (increased) TCTD over the western (eastern) NP, while the positive (negative) IPO corresponds to a NP basin-wide increase (decrease) in TCTD except in some coastal regions. The IPO has a much greater impact on TCTD over the western NP than GW, while the IPO and GW impacts are about equal over the eastern NP during 1960-2019. These findings have important implications for projecting future TC activity over the NP.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Wei Y, Zhang L, Wang J, et al (2020)

Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in China: Current distribution, trading, and futures under climate change and overexploitation.

The Science of the total environment, 755(Pt 1):142548 pii:S0048-9697(20)36077-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) is a precious traditional medicine which is mostly distributed on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Due to its medicinal values, it has become one of the most valuable biological commodities and widely traded in recent years worldwide. However, its habitat has changed profoundly in recent years under global warming as well as anthropogenic pressures, resulting in a sharp decline in its wild population in recent years. Based on the occurrence samples, this paper estimates the potential distribution of caterpillar fungus using MaxEnt model. The model simulates potential geographical distribution of the species under current climate conditions, and examine future distributions under different climatic change scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 have been modelled in 2050s and 2070s, respectively). For examining the impacts of climate change in future, the integrated effects of climatic impact, trading, and overexploitation had been analyzed in detailed routes. The results show that: 1) The distribution patterns of caterpillar fungus under scenario RCP 2.6 have been predicted without obvious changes. However, range shift has been observed with significant shrinks across all classes of suitable areas in Tianshan, Kunlun Mountains, and the southwestern QTP in 2050s and 2070s under RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. 2) The exports were decreasing drastically in recent years. Guangzhou and Hongkong are two international super import and consumption centres of caterpillar fungus in the world. 3) Both ecological and economic sustainable utilization of the caterpillar fungus has been threatened by the combined pressures of climate change and overexploitation. A strict but effective regulation and protection system, even a systematic management plan not just on the collectors but the whole explore process are urgently needed and has to be issued in the QTP.

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Gissi E, Manea E, Mazaris AD, et al (2020)

A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment.

The Science of the total environment, 755(Pt 1):142564 pii:S0048-9697(20)36093-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.

RevDate: 2020-10-09

Xu R, Yu P, Abramson MJ, et al (2020)

Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health.

The New England journal of medicine [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-10-09

Rydenfelt H (2020)

From Justice to the Good? Liberal Utilitarianism, Climate Change and the Coronavirus Crisis.

Cambridge quarterly of healthcare ethics : CQ : the international journal of healthcare ethics committees pii:S0963180120000900 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-10-19

Bussi G, Darby SE, Whitehead PG, et al (2020)

Impact of dams and climate change on suspended sediment flux to the Mekong delta.

The Science of the total environment, 755(Pt 1):142468 pii:S0048-9697(20)35997-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The livelihoods of millions of people living in the world's deltas are deeply interconnected with the sediment dynamics of these deltas. In particular a sustainable supply of fluvial sediments from upstream is critical for ensuring the fertility of delta soils and for promoting sediment deposition that can offset rising sea levels. Yet, in many large river catchments this supply of sediment is being threatened by the planned construction of large dams. In this study, we apply the INCA hydrological and sediment model to the Mekong River catchment in South East Asia. The aim is to assess the impact of several large dams (both existing and planned) on the suspended sediment fluxes of the river. We force the INCA model with a climate model to assess the interplay of changing climate and sediment trapping caused by dam construction. The results show that historical sediment flux declines are mostly caused by dams built in PR China and that sediment trapping will increase in the future due to the construction of new dams in PDR Lao and Cambodia. If all dams that are currently planned for the next two decades are built, they will induce a decline of suspended sediment flux of 50% (47-53% 90% confidence interval (90%CI)) compared to current levels (99 Mt/year at the delta apex), with potentially damaging consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Hu R, Gu Y, Luo M, et al (2020)

Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change.

PloS one, 15(10):e0240225.

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.

RevDate: 2020-10-13
CmpDate: 2020-10-13

Wei X, Cai S, Ni P, et al (2020)

Impacts of climate change and human activities on the water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River, southern China.

Scientific reports, 10(1):16743.

Global climate change and human activities have important effects on the water discharge and sediment load of the Pearl River. In this study, the water discharge and sediment load were investigated by using hydro-meteorological data from 1954 to 2018. The linear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test and double mass curve were employed to detect trends and abrupt change-points in water discharge and sediment load and to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on water discharge and sediment load. The results revealed that the annual sediment load exhibited a significant decreasing trend at a rate of - 2.24 × 104 t/year, regardless of water discharge, and an abrupt change occurred in 1998. Human activities, especially dam construction contributed 96% to this change, while 4% was due to climate change. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are often associated with low precipitation, resulting in low water discharge and sediment load, indicating that changes in ENSO periodicity could affect the inter-annual periodic variations of water discharge and sediment load. As population and economy boom, more dams are being built in the Pearl River basin, and special attention should be paid to the management and mitigation of the effects of dams on sediment load.

RevDate: 2020-10-10

Tabari H (2020)

Author Correction: Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability.

Scientific reports, 10(1):16969 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-74038-4.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Koteswara Rao K, Lakshmi Kumar TV, Kulkarni A, et al (2020)

Projections of heat stress and associated work performance over India in response to global warming.

Scientific reports, 10(1):16675.

Summertime heat stress future projections from multi-model mean of 18 CMIP5 models show unprecedented increasing levels in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios over India. The estimated heat stress is found to have more impact on the coastal areas of India having exposure to more frequent days of extreme caution to danger category along with the increased probability of occurrence. The explicit amount of change in temperature, increase in the duration and intensity of warm days along with the modulation in large scale circulation in future are seemingly connected to the increasing levels of heat stress over India. A decline of 30 to 40% in the work performance is projected over India by the end of the century due to the elevated heat stress levels which pose great challenges to the country policy makers to design the safety mechanisms and to protect people working under continuous extreme hot weather conditions.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Brown PT, H Saunders (2020)

Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates.

PloS one, 15(10):e0239520.

Efforts to mitigate global warming are often justified through calculations of the economic damages that may occur absent mitigation. The earliest such damage estimates were speculative mathematical representations, but some more recent studies provide empirical estimates of damages on economic growth that accumulate over time and result in larger damages than those estimated previously. These heightened damage estimates have been used to suggest that limiting global warming this century to 1.5 °C avoids tens of trillions of 2010 US$ in damage to gross world product relative to limiting global warming to 2.0 °C. However, in order to estimate the net effect on gross world product, mitigation costs associated with decarbonizing the world's energy systems must be subtracted from the benefits of avoided damages. Here, we follow previous work to parameterize the aforementioned heightened damage estimates into a schematic global climate-economy model (DICE) so that they can be weighed against mainstream estimates of mitigation costs in a unified framework. We investigate the net effect of mitigation on gross world product through finite time horizons under a spectrum of exogenously defined levels of mitigation stringency. We find that even under heightened damage estimates, the additional mitigation costs of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (relative to 2.0 °C) are higher than the additional avoided damages this century under most parameter combinations considered. Specifically, using our central parameter values, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C results in a net loss of gross world product of roughly forty trillion US$ relative to 2 °C and achieving either 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C require a net sacrifice of gross world product, relative to a no-mitigation case, though 2100 with a 3%/year discount rate. However, the benefits of more stringent mitigation accumulate over time and our calculations indicate that stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C by 2100 would eventually confer net benefits of thousands of trillions of US$ in gross world product by 2300. The results emphasize the temporal asymmetry between the costs of mitigation and benefits of avoided damages from climate change and thus the long timeframe for which climate change mitigation investment pays off.

RevDate: 2020-10-07

Retter A, Karwautz C, C Griebler (2020)

Groundwater Microbial Communities in Times of Climate Change.

Current issues in molecular biology, 41:509-538 pii:v41/509 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has a massive impact on the global water cycle. Subsurface ecosystems, the earth largest reservoir of liquid freshwater, currently experience a significant increase in temperature and serious consequences from extreme hydrological events. Extended droughts as well as heavy rains and floods have measurable impacts on groundwater quality and availability. In addition, the growing water demand puts increasing pressure on the already vulnerable groundwater ecosystems. Global change induces undesired dynamics in the typically nutrient and energy poor aquifers that are home to a diverse and specialized microbiome and fauna. Current and future changes in subsurface environmental conditions, without doubt, alter the composition of communities, as well as important ecosystem functions, for instance the cycling of elements such as carbon and nitrogen. A key role is played by the microbes. Understanding the interplay of biotic and abiotic drivers in subterranean ecosystems is required to anticipate future effects of climate change on groundwater resources and habitats. This review summarizes potential threats to groundwater ecosystems with emphasis on climate change and the microbial world down below our feet in the water saturated subsurface.

RevDate: 2020-10-08
CmpDate: 2020-10-08

Sinha RK, Eldho TI, G Subimal (2020)

Assessing the impacts of historical and future land use and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield of a tropical mountainous river basin in South India.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(11):679 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08623-5.

In this study, the impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield were investigated for the Payaswani River Basin, Western Ghats, India. The LULC was determined using Landsat images, and climate data were procured from five general circulation models for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate emission) and 8.5 (high emission). The land change modeler was used to derive the future LULC and its changes from 1988 (historical) to 2030 (future) by using the transition matrix method. The SWAT model was used to assess the impacts of LULC and climate change for the streamflow and sediment yield. The results showed that decrease in forests and grasslands and increase in plantation, agricultural, and urban areas from 1988 to 2030 would lead to an increase in the mean streamflow (11.23%) and sediment yield (17.41%). Under RCP 4.5, climate change would decrease the streamflow by 2.38% in 2030. However, under RCP 8.5, climate change would increase the streamflow by 0.12% in 2030. The sediment yield under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 would increase by 1.23% and 3.33%, respectively. In comparison with the baseline condition, by 2030 future changes in the LULC and climate would increase the streamflow by 7.05% and 11.71% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The sediment yield would increase by 7.92% and 27.11% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The streamflow and sediment yield were predicted to increase in the summer and winter but decrease in the monsoon season.

RevDate: 2020-10-08
CmpDate: 2020-10-08

Singh L, S Saravanan (2020)

Impact of climate change on hydrology components using CORDEX South Asia climate model in Wunna, Bharathpuzha, and Mahanadi, India.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(11):678 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08637-z.

Detecting the probable impact of climate change responses on hydrological components is most important for understanding such changes on water resources. The impact of climate change on virtual parameters of water was assessed through hydrological modeling of the Wunna, Mahanadi (Middle), and Bharathpuzha watersheds. In this article, future hydrological component responses under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were considered for investigating the runoff, sediment, and water storage components. RegCM4 CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 CORDEX South Asia of RCM model was used which is specially downscaled for the Asian region by IITM-India. Delta change method was adopted to remove bias correction in RCM data. Hydrological simulation for current and future periods was performed by GIS interfaced Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The surface runoff of Wunna and Bharathpuzha watersheds and the yield of sediment are expected to increase further under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 and in contrast to Mahanadi watershed. Both blue water storage (BW) and green water storage (GWS) of Wunna watershed are expected to decline under RCP4.5, and rise under RCP8.5 scenario. Both BW and GWS of Bharathpuzha are expected to increase in the future except in western region under RCP4.5 scenario. BW of Mahanadi is expected to increase in the future. However, GWS will decrease in some of the sub-basins. The model-generated results will be helpful for future water resources planning and development.

RevDate: 2020-10-09

Chowdhury MA, Hasan MK, Hasan MR, et al (2020)

Climate change impacts and adaptations on health of Internally Displaced People (IDP): An exploratory study on coastal areas of Bangladesh.

Heliyon, 6(9):e05018.

Every year thousands of people are being displaced in coastal areas of Bangladesh due to natural calamities associated with climate change, known as Internally Displaced Peoples (IDPs). Climate change adaptation measures play a significant role in coping with the alteration of climatic components, while various forms of barriers hinder the sustainability of adaptation. This research was conducted to understand the perception of IDPs on climate change impact on health in the coastal areas of Bangladesh, including the adaptation practices and barriers to the coping strategies. To fulfill the objective, 420 individual surveys were conducted randomly in two Sub-districts of Khulna district in Bangladesh. The findings reveal that the riverbank erosion and cyclones were the primary reasons for displacement, and the social relationships were hampered in the new places of living. Also, the temperature in summer and winter, and the rainfall intensity increased, whereas rainfall slightly decreased over the last ten years. Differences of opinion were identified about the effects of the changing climatic variables on the respondents' health between the previous and present locations. Despite practicing different adaptive strategies, the weak financial condition and a lack of access to health care information are mostly hindering the sustainability of adaptation. This research may help policymakers in taking proper initiatives to ensure sustainable adaptation practices in the coastal areas.

RevDate: 2020-10-09

Indhumathi K, K Sathesh Kumar (2020)

A review on prediction of seasonal diseases based on climate change using big data.

Materials today. Proceedings [Epub ahead of print].

Big Data occupies an important place in the prediction of diseases that happen due to climate change. In each aspect of human life, the weather plays a major role. It directly affects human society or human life. Because of an extreme weather condition creates various diseases among humans. Such as Vector-borne diseases (Malaria, dengue and chikungunya fever), Water-borne diseases (Cholera, Typhoid), Air-borne diseases (Chicken Pox, influenza and small Pox) and Food-borne diseases (Diarrhoea and Salmonella) etc. This survey presents an overview for a climate variable such as extreme temperature, precipitation, humidity and how unexpected climate conditions can affect the disease and living organism.

RevDate: 2020-10-20
CmpDate: 2020-10-08

Calel R, Chapman SC, Stainforth DA, et al (2020)

Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change.

Nature communications, 11(1):5028.

A number of influential assessments of the economic cost of climate change rely on just a small number of coupled climate-economy models. A central feature of these assessments is their accounting of the economic cost of epistemic uncertainty-that part of our uncertainty stemming from our inability to precisely estimate key model parameters, such as the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. However, these models fail to account for the cost of aleatory uncertainty-the irreducible uncertainty that remains even when the true parameter values are known. We show how to account for this second source of uncertainty in a physically well-founded and tractable way, and we demonstrate that even modest variability implies trillions of dollars of previously unaccounted for economic damages.

RevDate: 2020-10-20
CmpDate: 2020-10-08

Rising J, N Devineni (2020)

Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5.

Nature communications, 11(1):4991.

A key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Fan S, Chen C, Zhao Q, et al (2020)

Identifying Potentially Climatic Suitability Areas for Arma custos (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China under Climate Change.

Insects, 11(10): pii:insects11100674.

Spodoptera frugiperda is a notorious pest that feeds on more than 80 crops, and has spread over 100 countries. Many biological agents have been employed to regulate it, such as Arma custos. A. custos is a polyphagous predatory heteropteran, which can effectively suppress several agricultural and forest pests. Thus, in order to understand where A. custos can survive and where can be released, MaxEnt was used to predict the potentially suitable areas for A. custos in China under climate change conditions. The results show that the annual mean temperature (bio1) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the major factors influencing the distribution of A. custos. The optimal range of the two are 7.5 to 15 °C, 750 to 1200 mm, respectively. The current climate is highly suitable for A. custos in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces. Under the future climatic scenarios, the suitable area will decrease and shift towards the north. Overall, this result can provide a reference framework for future application of A. custos for biological control.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Schulte To Bühne H, Tobias JA, Durant SM, et al (2020)

Improving Predictions of Climate Change-Land Use Change Interactions.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(20)30249-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and land use change often interact, altering biodiversity in unexpected ways. Research into climate change-land use change (CC-LUC) interactions has so far focused on quantifying biodiversity outcomes, rather than identifying the underlying ecological mechanisms, making it difficult to predict interactions and design appropriate conservation responses. We propose a risk-based framework to further our understanding of CC-LUC interactions. By identifying the factors driving the exposure and vulnerability of biodiversity to land use change, and then examining how these factors are altered by climate change (or vice versa), this framework will allow the effects of different interaction mechanisms to be compared across geographic and ecological contexts, supporting efforts to reduce biodiversity loss from interacting stressors.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Sorgho R, Mank I, Kagoné M, et al (2020)

"We Will Always Ask Ourselves the Question of How to Feed the Family": Subsistence Farmers' Perceptions on Adaptation to Climate Change in Burkina Faso.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(19): pii:ijerph17197200.

In West Africa, climate change aggravates subsistence farmers' vulnerability to weather variability to sustain their agricultural and nutritional requirements. For successful adaptation policies, in-depth understanding of farmers' perceptions about climate change, agriculture, and adaptation strategies is essential. This qualitative study in rural Burkina Faso characterized farmers' perceptions and knowledge through in-depth interviews. The study enumerated the barriers, possibilities, strategies/practices, and support sources of farmers. There was awareness but limited understanding of climate change amongst farmers. Those unable to adapt, faced increased health difficulties, specifically regarding nutrition and mental health. Farmers could implement some dietary and agricultural adaptation strategies (reduce meal size, frequency and variety, preemptive purchase of cereals, multi-cropping, crop rotation, modified seeds) but were unable to implement others (soil rehabilitation, water management). Barriers to implementation comprised financial and time constraints, material and labor shortages, and inaccessible information. Farmers did not understand, trust or utilize meteorological services, but appreciated and relied on agricultural extension services. They reported that social and governmental support was sporadic and inconsistent. This study uncovers the following targets for climate change adaptation policies in rural Burkina Faso: promoting meteorological services, expanding agricultural extension services, increasing access to financial resources, and framing sustainable adaptation within national development goals.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Adam S, Reber U, Häussler T, et al (2020)

How climate change skeptics (try to) spread their ideas: Using computational methods to assess the resonance among skeptics' and legacy media.

PloS one, 15(10):e0240089.

We study the discursive resonance of online climate skepticism in traditional media in Germany, a country where climate skeptics lack public prestige and thus form a political counter-movement. We thereby differentiate two temporal dynamics: resonance can be continuous or selective, based on the exploitation of specific events. Beyond, we test whether such resonance is higher within the conservative media. We rely on news value theory to shed light on the mechanism facilitating or hindering such resonance and identify three indicators for resonance: frames, positions and actors. Using various computational methods as well as qualitative case studies, we examine the skeptical and traditional media discourses over a period of two years. Our analysis shows that there is no continuous resonance. However, our data reveal selective resonance: skeptics' manage to exploit specific events pushing their frames and positions onto traditional media's agenda. Thereby, conservative media did not give greater resonance to climate skeptical voices whereas they resort to downplaying the issue by allocating less space to it.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Hodnebrog Ø, Aamaas B, Fuglestvedt JS, et al (2020)

Updated Global Warming Potentials and Radiative Efficiencies of Halocarbons and Other Weak Atmospheric Absorbers.

Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985), 58(3):e2019RG000691.

Human activity has led to increased atmospheric concentrations of many gases, including halocarbons, and may lead to emissions of many more gases. Many of these gases are, on a per molecule basis, powerful greenhouse gases, although at present-day concentrations their climate effect is in the so-called weak limit (i.e., their effect scales linearly with concentration). We published a comprehensive review of the radiative efficiencies (RE) and global warming potentials (GWP) for around 200 such compounds in 2013 (Hodnebrog et al., 2013, Here we present updated RE and GWP values for compounds where experimental infrared absorption spectra are available. Updated numbers are based on a revised "Pinnock curve", which gives RE as a function of wave number, and now also accounts for stratospheric temperature adjustment (Shine & Myhre, 2020, Further updates include the implementation of around 500 absorption spectra additional to those in the 2013 review and new atmospheric lifetimes from the literature (mainly from WMO (2019)). In total, values for 60 of the compounds previously assessed are based on additional absorption spectra, and 42 compounds have REs which differ by >10% from our previous assessment. New RE calculations are presented for more than 400 compounds in addition to the previously assessed compounds, and GWP calculations are presented for a total of around 250 compounds. Present-day radiative forcing due to halocarbons and other weak absorbers is 0.38 [0.33-0.43] W m-2, compared to 0.36 [0.32-0.40] W m-2 in IPCC AR5 (Myhre et al., 2013,, which is about 18% of the current CO2 forcing.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Zytynska SE, Eicher M, Rothballer M, et al (2020)

Microbial-Mediated Plant Growth Promotion and Pest Suppression Varies Under Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:573578.

Climate change is altering the dynamics of crop pests and diseases resulting in reduced crop yields. Using beneficial soil bacterial to increase crop health is a quickly developing area in sustainable agriculture, but it is unknown if climate change or interactions with other species could alter their effect. The plant growth-promoting rhizobacterium Acidovorax radicis N35 is known to increase barley (Hordeum vulgare) plant growth under laboratory conditions, and we tested the stability of the plant-bacterial interactions when exposed to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) levels while infesting the aboveground leaves with cereal aphids (Sitobion avenae) and the soil with beneficial earthworms. Acidovorax radicis N35 increased plant growth and reduced insect growth - with greatest effect in a high-stress elevated O3 environment, but reduced effects under elevated CO2. Earthworms promoted both plant and insect growth, but inoculation with A. radicis N35 alleviated some of the earthworm-mediated increase in pest abundance, particularly in the ambient environment. The consistency of these beneficial effects highlights the potential of exploiting local species interactions for predicting and mitigating climate change effects in managed systems. We conclude that microbial bioprotectants have high potential for benefiting agriculture via plant-growth promotion and pest suppression.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Taube F, Vogeler I, Kluß C, et al (2020)

Yield Progress in Forage Maize in NW Europe-Breeding Progress or Climate Change Effects?.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:1214.

Yield increases in forage maize (Zea mays L.) in NW Europe over time are well documented. The driving causes for these, however, remain unclear as there is little information available regarding the role of plant traits triggering this yield progress. Ten different hybrids from the same maturity group, which have typically been cultivated in Northwest Germany from 1970 to recent and are thus representing breeding progress over four decades, were selected for a 2-year field study in northern Germany. Traits that were investigated included leaf area index, leaf architecture, photosynthesis, radiation use efficiency, root mass, root length density, and turnover. Based on a mixed model analysis with these traits as co-variates, parameters related to leaf characteristics, in particular the number and length of leaves, the radiation use efficiency, and the leaf orientation, were identified as most influential on the yield progress (0.13 tons ha-1 year-1). In contrast to our hypothesis, root biomass only increased negligibly in newer hybrids compared to older ones, confirming the 'functional equilibrium' theory for high input production systems. Due to an abundance of nutrients and water in such high input systems, there is no incentive for breeders to select for carbon partitioning toward the rooting system. Breeding evidence to increase forage quality were also negligible, with no change in cob starch concentration, forage digestibility, nor NDF content and NDF digestibility. The observed increase in yield over the last four decades is due to a combination of increased temperature sums (~240 GDD within 40 years), and a higher radiation interception and radiation use efficiency. This higher radiation interception was driven by an increased leaf area index, with a higher number of leaves (16 instead of 14 leaves within 40 years) and longer leaves of newer compared to older hybrids. Future selection and adaptation of maize hybrids to changing environmental conditions are likely to be the key for high productivity and quality and for the economic viability of maize growing and expansion in Northern Europe.

RevDate: 2020-10-04

Monz CA, Gutzwiller KJ, Hausner VH, et al (2020)

Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-020-01403-y [Epub ahead of print].

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change-but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Kalogirou MR, Dahlke S, Davidson S, et al (2020)

Nurses' perspectives on climate change, health and nursing practice.

Journal of clinical nursing [Epub ahead of print].

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to explore Canadian nurses' perspectives on climate change, health, nursing practice and the relationships between these concepts.

BACKGROUND: Climate change negatively impacts human health. With a mandate to promote health, nurses have a professional and ethical responsibility to address climate change. Little is known about Canadian nurses' perspectives on climate change or how they perceive of their professional responsibility towards addressing it.

METHODS: A focused ethnography was conducted in three medicine units and the emergency room at a Canadian hospital. Nurses (n = 22) participated in semi-structured interviews, and observations were collected. Data were analysed via thematic analysis. Reporting is in accordance with the COREQ guideline.

RESULTS: Three themes were identified: muddled terminology, climate change and health, and nursing's relationship to climate change.

CONCLUSION: Participants had varying levels of knowledge about climate change and its relationship to health or practice. Climate change was a personal concern, and nursing's role in addressing it was not understood.

RELEVANCE TO PRACTICE: This study highlighted that practising nurses did not readily recognise their role in addressing climate change. More work is needed to clarify this role and bring it into the consciousness of every-day nursing practice. Furthermore, more work is needed to examine how healthcare organisations can better support environmentally responsible nursing practice.

RevDate: 2020-10-20
CmpDate: 2020-10-14

Leclerc C, Courchamp F, C Bellard (2020)

Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals.

Nature communications, 11(1):4943.

Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Harvey JA, Heinen R, Gols R, et al (2020)

Climate change-mediated temperature extremes and insects: From outbreaks to breakdowns.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Insects are among the most diverse and widespread animals across the biosphere and are well-known for their contributions to ecosystem functioning and services. Recent increases in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extremes (CE), in particular temperature extremes (TE) owing to anthropogenic climate change, are exposing insect populations and communities to unprecedented stresses. However, a major problem in understanding insect responses to TE is that they are still highly unpredictable both spatially and temporally, which reduces frequency- or direction-dependent selective responses by insects. Moreover, how species interactions and community structure may change in response to stresses imposed by TE is still poorly understood. Here we provide an overview of how terrestrial insects respond to TE by integrating their organismal physiology, multitrophic, and community-level interactions, and building that up to explore scenarios for population explosions and crashes that have ecosystem-level consequences. We argue that TE can push insect herbivores and their natural enemies to and even beyond their adaptive limits, which may differ among species intimately involved in trophic interactions, leading to phenological disruptions and the structural reorganization of food webs. TE may ultimately lead to outbreak-breakdown cycles in insect communities with detrimental consequences for ecosystem functioning and resilience. Lastly, we suggest new research lines that will help achieve a better understanding of insect and community responses to a wide range of CE.

RevDate: 2020-10-03

Payus CM, Jikilim C, J Sentian (2020)

Rainwater chemistry of acid precipitation occurrences due to long-range transboundary haze pollution and prolonged drought events during southwest monsoon season: climate change driven.

Heliyon, 6(9):e04997.

The purposes of this research were to study the characteristics chemistry of pH, anions and cations in rainwater, and to identify the possible sources that contributing to the acid precipitation during southwest monsoon season with occurrence of extreme drought event. During the southwest monsoon season, it normally occurs along with haze phenomenon that every year will hit Southeast Asia. This condition will aggravate with high acidic particles in the atmosphere due to the prolonged drought. The analysed parameters which involved pH, anions (NO3-, SO42- and Cl-) and cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ and K+) were analysed using pH meter, Hach DR 2800, argentometric method and ICP-OES. From the findings, it showed that acid rain occurred during the southwest monsoon season with the range of pH values from 4.95 ± 0.13 to 6.40 ± 0.03 and the total average of pH 5.71 ± 0.32. Anions NO3-, SO42- and Cl- were found to be the dominant compositions of the acid rain occurrences with higher concentrations detected. In overall, rural area recorded with higher acidity of precipitation at total average of pH 5.54 ± 0.39 compared to urban area at pH 5.77 ± 0.26. Rural area surprisingly recorded higher frequency occurrences of acid rain with pH lesser than 5.6 and below compared to urban area. As for public health and safety, all rainwater samples during the acid rain event were found exceeded the allowable limits of NWQS and WHO standards, that shown not suitable for skin contact, recreational purposes even for drinking purposes.

RevDate: 2020-10-03

Du FK, Wang T, Wang Y, et al (2020)

Contrasted patterns of local adaptation to climate change across the range of an evergreen oak, Quercus aquifolioides.

Evolutionary applications, 13(9):2377-2391.

Long-lived tree species are genetically differentiated and locally adapted with respect to fitness-related traits, but the genetic basis of local adaptation remains largely unresolved. Recent advances in population genetics and landscape genomic analyses enable identification of putative adaptive loci and specific selective pressures acting on local adaptation. Here, we sampled 60 evergreen oak (Quercus aquifolioides) populations throughout the species' range and pool-sequenced 587 individuals at drought-stress candidate genes. We analyzed patterns of genetic diversity and differentiation for 381 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 65 candidate genes and eight microsatellites. Outlier loci were identified by genetic differentiation analysis and genome-environment associations. The response pattern of genetic variation to environmental gradient was assessed by linear isolation-by-distance/environment tests, redundancy analysis, and nonlinear methods. SNPs and microsatellites revealed two genetic lineages: Tibet and Hengduan Mountains-Western Sichuan Plateau (HDM-WSP), with reduced genetic diversity in Tibet lineage. More outlier loci were detected in HDM-WSP lineage than Tibet lineage. Among these, three SNPs in two genes responded to dry season precipitation in the HDM-WSP lineage but not in Tibet. By contrast, genetic variation in the Tibet lineage was related to geographic distance instead of the environment. Furthermore, risk of nonadaptedness (RONA) analyses suggested HDM-WSP lineage will have a better capacity to adapt in the predicted future climate compared with the Tibet lineage. We detected genetic imprints consistent with natural selection and molecular adaptation to drought on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) over a range of long-lived and widely distributed oak species in a changing environment. Our results suggest that different within-species adaptation processes occur in species occurring in heterogeneous environments.

RevDate: 2020-10-03

Galliart M, Sabates S, Tetreault H, et al (2020)

Adaptive genetic potential and plasticity of trait variation in the foundation prairie grass Andropogon gerardii across the US Great Plains' climate gradient: Implications for climate change and restoration.

Evolutionary applications, 13(9):2333-2356.

Plant response to climate depends on a species' adaptive potential. To address this, we used reciprocal gardens to detect genetic and environmental plasticity effects on phenotypic variation and combined with genetic analyses. Four reciprocal garden sites were planted with three regional ecotypes of Andropogon gerardii, a dominant Great Plains prairie grass, using dry, mesic, and wet ecotypes originating from western KS to Illinois that span 500-1,200 mm rainfall/year. We aimed to answer: (a) What is the relative role of genetic constraints and phenotypic plasticity in controlling phenotypes? (b) When planted in the homesite, is there a trait syndrome for each ecotype? (c) How are genotypes and phenotypes structured by climate? and (d) What are implications of these results for response to climate change and use of ecotypes for restoration? Surprisingly, we did not detect consistent local adaptation. Rather, we detected co-gradient variation primarily for most vegetative responses. All ecotypes were stunted in western KS. Eastward, the wet ecotype was increasingly robust relative to other ecotypes. In contrast, fitness showed evidence for local adaptation in wet and dry ecotypes with wet and mesic ecotypes producing little seed in western KS. Earlier flowering time in the dry ecotype suggests adaptation to end of season drought. Considering ecotype traits in homesite, the dry ecotype was characterized by reduced canopy area and diameter, short plants, and low vegetative biomass and putatively adapted to water limitation. The wet ecotype was robust, tall with high biomass, and wide leaves putatively adapted for the highly competitive, light-limited Eastern Great Plains. Ecotype differentiation was supported by random forest classification and PCA. We detected genetic differentiation and outlier genes associated with primarily precipitation. We identified candidate gene GA1 for which allele frequency associated with plant height. Sourcing of climate adapted ecotypes should be considered for restoration.

RevDate: 2020-10-04

Chamorro D, Real R, AR Muñoz (2020)

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):16272.

The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.

RevDate: 2020-10-02

Perrone G, Ferrara M, Medina A, et al (2020)

Toxigenic Fungi and Mycotoxins in a Climate Change Scenario: Ecology, Genomics, Distribution, Prediction and Prevention of the Risk.

Microorganisms, 8(10): pii:microorganisms8101496.

Toxigenic fungi and mycotoxins are very common in food crops, with noticeable differences in their host specificity in terms of pathogenicity and toxin contamination. In addition, such crops may be infected with mixtures of mycotoxigenic fungi, resulting in multi-mycotoxin contamination. Climate represents the key factor in driving the fungal community structure and mycotoxin contamination levels pre- and post-harvest. Thus, there is significant interest in understanding the impact of interacting climate change-related abiotic factors (especially increased temperature, elevated CO2 and extremes in water availability) on the relative risks of mycotoxin contamination and impacts on food safety and security. We have thus examined the available information from the last decade on relative risks of mycotoxin contamination under future climate change scenarios and identified the gaps in knowledge. This has included the available scientific information on the ecology, genomics, distribution of toxigenic fungi and intervention strategies for mycotoxin control worldwide. In addition, some suggestions for prediction and prevention of mycotoxin risks are summarized together with future perspectives and research needs for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2020-10-06

Smyth CE, Xu Z, Lemprière TC, et al (2020)

Climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector: GHG reductions, costs, and environmental impacts.

Carbon balance and management, 15(1):21.

BACKGROUND: The potential contributions from forest-based greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions need to be quantified to develop pathways towards net negative emissions. Here we present results from a comparative analysis that examined mitigation options for British Columbia's forest sector. Mitigation scenarios were evaluated using a systems perspective that takes into account the changes in emissions and removals in forest ecosystems, in harvested wood product (HWP) carbon stocks, and in other sectors where wood products substitute for emission-intensive materials and fossil fuels. All mitigation activities were assessed relative to a forward-looking 'business as usual' baseline for three implementation levels. In addition to quantifying net GHG emission reductions, we assessed economic, and socio-economic impacts as well as other environmental indicators relating to forest species, age class, deadwood availability and future timber supply. We further considered risks of reversal for land-based scenarios, by assessing impacts of increasing future wildfires on stands that were not harvested.

RESULTS: Our spatially explicit analyses of forest sector mitigation options demonstrated a cost-effective portfolio of regionally differentiated scenarios that directed more of the harvested wood to longer-lived wood products, stopped burning of harvest residues and instead produced bioenergy to displace fossil fuel burning, and reduced harvest levels in regions with low disturbance rates. Domestically, net GHG emissions were reduced by an average of -9 MtCO2e year-1 over 2020-2050 for a portfolio of mitigation activities at a default implementation level, with about 85% of the GHG emission reductions achieved below a cost of $50/tCO2e. Normalizing the net GHG reduction by changes in harvested wood levels permitted comparisons of the scenarios with different ambition levels, and showed that a 1 MtCO2 increase in cumulative harvested stemwood results in a 1 MtCO2e reduction in cumulative emissions, relative to the baseline, for the Higher Recovery scenario in 2070.

CONCLUSIONS: The analyses conducted in this study contribute to the global understanding of forest sector mitigation options by providing an integrated framework to synthesize the methods, assumptions, datasets and models needed to quantify mitigation activities using a systems approach. An understanding of economically feasible and socio-economically attractive mitigation scenarios along with trade offs for environmental indicators relating to species composition and age, helps decision makers with long-term planning for land sector contributions to GHG emission reduction efforts, and provides valuable information for stakeholder consultations.

RevDate: 2020-10-02

Liu Y, Chen J, Pan T, et al (2020)

Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.

Earth's future, 8(9):e2019EF001331.

Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046-2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2.97 × 109 persons) exposed to precipitation extremes >10 days/a. The RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario produces the highest global GDP exposure for 2046-2065, with a 5.56-fold increase relative to the base period, of up to (2.29 ± 0.20) × 1015 purchasing power parity $-days. Socioeconomic effects are the primary contributor to the exposure changes at the global and continental scales. Population and GDP effects account for 64-77% and 78-91% of the total exposure change, respectively. The inequality of exposure indicates that more attention should be given to Asia and Africa due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries, that is, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, should also commit to effective adaptation measures.

RevDate: 2020-10-07

Bauduin S, Cumming SG, St-Laurent MH, et al (2020)

Integrating functional connectivity in designing networks of protected areas under climate change: A caribou case-study.

PloS one, 15(9):e0238821.

Land-use change and climate change are recognized as two main drivers of the current biodiversity decline. Protected areas help safeguard the landscape from additional anthropogenic disturbances and, when properly designed, can help species cope with climate change impacts. When designed to protect the regional biodiversity rather than to conserve focal species or landscape elements, protected areas need to cover a representative sample of the regional biodiversity and be functionally connected, facilitating individual movements among protected areas in a network to maximize their effectiveness. We developed a methodology to define effective protected areas to implement in a regional network using ecological representativeness and functional connectivity as criteria. We illustrated this methodology in the Gaspésie region of Québec, Canada. We simulated movements for the endangered Atlantic-Gaspésie caribou population (Rangifer tarandus caribou), using an individual-based model, to determine functional connectivity based on this large mammal. We created multiple protected areas network scenarios and evaluated their ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the current and future conditions. We selected a subset of the most effective network scenarios and extracted the protected areas included in them. There was a tradeoff between ecological representativeness and functional connectivity for the created networks. Only a few protected areas among those available were repeatedly chosen in the most effective networks. Protected areas maximizing both ecological representativeness and functional connectivity represented suitable areas to implement in an effective protected areas network. These areas ensured that a representative sample of the regional biodiversity was covered by the network, as well as maximizing the movement over time between and inside the protected areas for the focal population.

RevDate: 2020-10-02

El Hamichi S, Gold A, Murray TG, et al (2020)

Pandemics, climate change, and the eye.

RevDate: 2020-10-02

Nawaz MA, Seshadri U, Kumar P, et al (2020)

Nexus between green finance and climate change mitigation in N-11 and BRICS countries: empirical estimation through difference in differences (DID) approach.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Green finance is inextricably linked to investment risk, particularly in emerging and developing economies (EMDE). This study uses the difference in differences (DID) method to evaluate the mean causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of the determinants of scaling up green financing and climate change mitigation in the N-11 countries from 2005 to 2019. After analyzing with a dummy for the treated countries, it was confirmed that the outcome covariates: rescon (renewable energy sources consumption), population, FDI, CO2, inflation, technical corporation grants, domestic credit to the private sector, and research and development are very significant in promoting green financing and climate change mitigation in the study countries. The probit regression results give a different outcome, as rescon, FID, CO2, Human Development Index (HDI), and investment in the energy sector by the private sector that will likely have an impact on the green financing and climate change mitigation of the study countries. Furthermore, after matching the analysis through the nearest neighbor matching, kernel matching, and radius matching, it produced mixed results for both the treated and the untreated countries. Either group experienced an improvement in green financing and climate change mitigation or a decrease. Overall, the DID showed no significant difference among the countries.

RevDate: 2020-10-05

Botzen W, Duijndam S, P van Beukering (2021)

Lessons for climate policy from behavioral biases towards COVID-19 and climate change risks.

World development, 137:105214.

COVID-19 and climate change share several striking similarities in terms of causes and consequences. For instance, COVID-19 and climate change affect deprived and vulnerable communities the most, which implies that effectively designed policies that mitigate these risks may also reduce the widening inequalities that they cause. Both problems can be characterized as low-probability-high consequence (LP-HC) risks, which are associated with various behavioral biases that imply that individual behavior deviates from rational risk assessments by experts and optimal preparedness strategies. One could view the COVID-19 pandemic as a rapid learning experiment about how to cope more effectively with climate change and develop actions for reducing its impacts before it is too late. However, the ensuing question relates to whether the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath will speed up climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, which depends on how individuals perceive and take action to reduce LP-HC risks. Using insights into behavioral biases in individual decisions about LP-HC risks based on decades of empirical research in psychology and behavioral economics, we illustrate how parallels can be drawn between decision-making processes about COVID-19 and climate change. In particular, we discuss six important risk-related behavioral biases in the context of individual decision making about these two global challenges to derive lessons for climate policy. We contend that the impacts from climate change can be mitigated if we proactively draw lessons from the pandemic, and implement policies that work with, instead of against, an individual's risk perceptions and biases. We conclude with recommendations for communication policies that make people pay attention to climate change risks and for linking government responses to the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath with environmental sustainability and climate action.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Sauermann CW, Leathwick DM, Lieffering M, et al (2020)

Climate change is likely to increase the development rate of anthelmintic resistance in equine cyathostomins in New Zealand.

International journal for parasitology. Drugs and drug resistance, 14:73-79 pii:S2211-3207(20)30027-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is likely to influence livestock production by increasing the prevalence of diseases, including parasites. The traditional practice of controlling nematodes in livestock by the application of anthelmintics is, however, increasingly compromised by the development of resistance to these drugs in parasite populations. This study used a previously developed simulation model of the entire equine cyathostomin lifecycle to investigate the effect a changing climate would have on the development of anthelmintic resistance. Climate data from six General Circulation Models based on four different Representative Concentration Pathways was available for three New Zealand locations. These projections were used to estimate the time resistance will take to develop in the middle (2040-49) and by the end (2090-99) of the century in relation to current (2006-15) conditions under two treatment scenarios of either two or six yearly whole-herd anthelmintic treatments. To facilitate comparison, a scenario without any treatments was included as a baseline. In addition, the size of the infective and parasitic stage nematode population during the third simulation year were estimated. The development of resistance varied between locations, time periods and anthelmintic treatment strategies. In general, the simulations indicated a more rapid development of resistance under future climates coinciding with an increase in the numbers of infective larvae on pasture and encysted parasitic stages. This was especially obvious when climate changes resulted in a longer period suitable for development of free-living parasite stages. A longer period suitable for larval development resulted in an increase in the average size of the parasite population with a larger contribution from eggs passed by resistant worms surviving the anthelmintic treatments. It is projected that climate change will decrease the ability to control livestock parasites by means of anthelmintic treatments and non-drug related strategies will become increasingly important for sustainable parasite control.

RevDate: 2020-10-20

Taylor S (2020)

Anxiety disorders, climate change, and the challenges ahead: Introduction to the special issue.

Journal of anxiety disorders, 76:102313 pii:S0887-6185(20)30127-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change involves (1) increases in the prevalence of extreme weather events (e.g., wildfires, floods, hurricanes), (2) more gradual climatic changes (e.g., rising sea levels, desertification), and (3) increased risks of pandemics and other widespread disease outbreaks. Anxiety evoked by the threat of climate change can be either adaptive or maladaptive. Adaptive anxiety can motivate climate activism, such as efforts to reduce one's carbon footprint. Maladaptive anxiety can take the form of anxious passivity, where the person feels anxious but incapable of addressing the problem of climate change, and may take the form of an anxiety disorder triggered or exacerbated by climatic stressors. Such stressors may involve exposure to extreme weather events or may involve exposure to other stressors such as forced migration due to rising sea levels or desertification. Three types of interventions are needed to address the various types of climate-related anxiety: (1) programs that motivate people to overcome anxious passivity and thereby take action to mitigate the effects of climate change, (2) treatment programs that address anxiety associated with exposure to climatic stressors, and (3) programs that build resilience at an individual and community level, to help people better cope with the challenges ahead.

RevDate: 2020-10-01
CmpDate: 2020-09-30

Guo B, Han B, Yang F, et al (2020)

Determining the contributions of climate change and human activities to the vegetation NPP dynamics in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China, from 2000 to 2015.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(10):663 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08606-6.

Reflecting on the change in the global biodiversity pattern, the Tibetan Plateau, considered to be a "natural laboratory" for analyzing environmental change in China and around the world, has suffered profound changes in the vegetation ecosystem. This study introduces the gravity center model and geographical detectors to examine and discuss the spatial-temporal change pattern and the driving mechanism behind vegetation net primary production (NPP) in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the year 2000 to 2015 while also quantitatively classifying the relative roles incorporated in the NPP change process. The study found that (1) from 2000 to 2015, the annual average NPP of the Tibetan Plateau demonstrated a declining trend from southeast to northwest. (2) The gravity center of vegetation NPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau seems to have shifted eastward in the past 16 years, indicating that the level of vegetation NPP in the east depicts a greater increment and growth rate than the west. (3) In the arid regions, temperature and rainfall appear as the dominant factors for vegetation NPP, while slope and aspect parameters have constantly assumed dominancy for the same in the tropical rainforest-monsoon ecological zone in southeastern Tibet. (4) The structure of vegetation NPP exhibits an interaction between human and natural factors, which enhances the influence of single factors. (5) Considering the global ecological change and related human activities, certain differences are observed in the dominant and interaction factors for different study periods and ecological subregions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The research results could prove conclusive for vegetation ecological protection in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau.

RevDate: 2020-10-16

Barbosa HP, Roué-Le Gall A, Deloly C, et al (2020)

Mapping the links between climate change and human health in urban areas: how is research conducted? A Scoping review protocol.

BMJ open, 10(9):e034667.

INTRODUCTION: Scientists from a wide variety of fields of knowledge are increasingly interested in climate change issues. The importance given to the phenomenon is explained by the uncertainties surrounding it and its consequences not yet fully known. However, there is wide agreement that human activities are modifying the Earth's climate beyond the natural cyclical changes and that these changes impact human health. This scoping review aimed to understand how research on the links between climate change and human health in urban areas is conducted and how this research is approached holistically or not.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This scoping review is mainly guided by the Arskey and O'Malley scoping review framework. A broad range of databases will be used, including PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science Core Collection, GreenFILE and Information Science & Technology Abstracts. Predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be used, with a focus on climate change and human health outcome studies published between January 1990 and July 2019. An interdisciplinary team has formulated search strategies and the reviewers will independently screen eligible studies for final study selection. We will apply a thematic analysis to evaluate and categorise the study findings. We expect to map the research according to the scientific research methods, the scientific fields and the determinants of health studied. Along these lines, we will be able to understand how holistic the research is.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No primary data will be collected since all data presented in this review are based on published articles and publicly available documents. Therefore, ethics committee approval is not a requirement. The findings will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal, presentations at conferences relevant to the field of this research, as well as presentations to relevant stakeholders.

RevDate: 2020-10-01

Chrobak U (2020)

Adapting to climate change: What might be needed?.

Engineering (Beijing, China) [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-09-28

Nicholas PK, Breakey S, Tagliareni ME, et al (2020)

Climate Change and Population Health: Incorporating Stages of Nursing's Political Development.

Nursing outlook pii:S0029-6554(20)30615-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is the greatest public health threat of the 21st century and is associated with environmental degradation and deleterious health consequences. In 2019, the Lancet Commission Report on Health and Climate Change: Ensuring that the Health of a Child Born Today Is Not Defined By a Changing Climate (Watts et al., 2019) examined the critical health issues that children will face in the era of climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions (GGEs) are responsible for an alarming increase in the warming of the planet, shifts in weather patterns, loss of arable land, and exacerbations of acute health issues, chronic health problems, and disaster-related health consequences. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of climate change and the associated deleterious health consequences in our climate-changing world. The paper will also examine the stages of political development to advance the 21st century role of the nursing profession in climate and health advocacy and policy.

RevDate: 2020-10-12

Braschler B, Duffy GA, Nortje E, et al (2020)

Realised rather than fundamental thermal niches predict site occupancy: Implications for climate change forecasting.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Thermal performance traits are regularly used to make forecasts of the responses of ectotherms to anthropogenic environmental change, but such forecasts do not always differentiate between fundamental and realised thermal niches. Here we determine the relative extents to which variation in the fundamental and realised thermal niches accounts for current variation in species abundance and occupancy and assess the effects of niche-choice on future-climate response estimations. We investigated microclimate and macroclimate temperatures alongside abundance, occupancy, critical thermal limits and foraging activity of 52 ant species (accounting for >95% individuals collected) from a regional assemblage from across the Western Cape Province, South Africa, between 2003 and 2014. Capability of a species to occupy sites experiencing the most extreme temperatures, coupled with breadth of realised niche, explained most deviance in occupancy (up to 75%), while foraging temperature range and body mass explained up to 50.5% of observed variation in mean species abundance. When realised niches are used to forecast responses to climate change, large positive and negative effects among species are predicted under future conditions, in contrast to the forecasts of minimal impacts on all species that are indicated by fundamental niche predictions.

RevDate: 2020-10-13

Gaitán-Espitia JD, AJ Hobday (2020)

Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity-population connectivity and population size-through 'passive interventions' (such as protected areas and connectivity corridors). However, the exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity that we are experiencing as result of anthropogenic climate change has shifted conservation approaches to more 'active interventions' (such as rewilding, assisted gene flow, assisted evolution, artificial selection, genetic engineering). We integrate genetic/genomic approaches into an evolutionary biology framework in order to discuss with scientists, conservation managers and decision makers about the opportunities and risks of interventions that need careful consideration in order to avoid unwanted evolutionary outcomes.

RevDate: 2020-09-26

Hackley DM (2020)

Climate change and oral health.

International dental journal [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-09-28

Adebayo AL, Davidson Mhonde R, DeNicola N, et al (2020)

The Effectiveness of Narrative Versus Didactic Information Formats on Pregnant Women's Knowledge, Risk Perception, Self-Efficacy, and Information Seeking Related to Climate Change Health Risks.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(19): pii:ijerph17196969.

Climate change is a global threat that poses significant risks to pregnant women and to their developing fetus and newborn. Educating pregnant women about the risks to their pregnancy may improve maternal and child health outcomes. Prior research suggests that presenting health information in narrative format can be more effective than a didactic format. Hence, the purpose of this study was to test the effectiveness of two brief educational interventions in a diverse group of pregnant women (n = 151). Specifically, using a post-test only randomized experiment, we compared the effectiveness of brief information presented in a narrative format versus a didactic format; both information formats were also compared to a no information control group. Outcome measures included pregnant women's actual and perceived knowledge, risk perception, affective assessment, self-efficacy, intention to take protective behaviors, and subsequent information seeking behavior. As hypothesized, for all outcome measures, the narrative format was more effective than the didactic format. These results suggest the benefits of a narrative approach (versus a didactic approach) to educating pregnant women about the maternal and child health threats posed by climate change. This study adds to a growing literature on the effectiveness of narrative-based approaches to health communication.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )