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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 26 Mar 2019 at 01:50 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-03-25

Ardalan A, Belay GD, Assen M, et al (2019)

Impact of climate change on community health and resilience in Ethiopia: A review article.

Human antibodies pii:HAB190364 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Drought is a serious issue which might be caused by climate change that could create famine and health problems. Drought reduces air quality, increases fungal infestation, reduces people hand washing, affects mental health, leads to malnutrition by decreasing agricultural production, and increases diseases transmitted by insects. This study aimed to determine and describe community health status through building drought resilience in Ethiopia.

METHODS: This review was conducted based on the available peer-reviewed articles that were published from January 2004 to December 2018 Online databases from PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE and Google Scholar were searched for studies related to the building drought and community health resilience at different regions of Ethiopia that were published in English language. The search was made by using "Emergency disaster", "prevention", "preparedness", "response", "recovery", "drought", "food insecurity", "coping strategies" and "drought health policy" as keywords.

RESULTS: Most of the reviewed articles deal with the impact of climate change on the human health in relation to food security. The associated factors of the impact of drought on food security is basically due to lack of irrigation and farmland, the scarcity of water due to the direct effect of drought, flood, severe soil erosion, livestock dispossession, family size of the household and literacy of the households. Various coping strategies were employed by the households to alleviate the high and continued food insecurity problem such as reducing the number and amount of meal, scrounging cash and grain, searching for off-farm and non-farm jobs, getting food aid, vending of livestock, and partake in food for work programs.

RevDate: 2019-03-25

Bhargava A (2019)

Climate change, demographic pressures and global sustainability.

Economics and human biology, 33:149-154 pii:S1570-677X(18)30345-9 [Epub ahead of print].

This article emphasizes the need for broader approaches for formulating policies for mitigating the effects of climate change especially in the contexts of agricultural decisions, and population health and migration. Constraints imposed by rapid population growth in developing countries for achievement of Sustainable Development Goals are discussed and evidence is presented on "unwanted" fertility from India. Second, comparisons are made for India during 2002-2016 for average well depths in 495 districts and terrestrial water storage anomalies assessed via GRACE satellites for 274 1° × 1° grids using estimated parameters from dynamic random effects models. Lastly, migration patterns especially of the highly educated from 39 sending countries to OECD countries during 2000-2010 are analyzed using dynamic random effects models and total fertility rates were significantly associated with higher migration rates for the highly educated. Implications of the empirical evidence for enhancing global sustainability are discussed.

RevDate: 2019-03-25

Liu M, Ma J, Kang L, et al (2019)

Strong turbulence benefits toxic and colonial cyanobacteria in water: A potential way of climate change impact on the expansion of Harmful Algal Blooms.

The Science of the total environment, 670:613-622 pii:S0048-9697(19)31245-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Extreme natural events such as typhoons can amplify the effect of hydrodynamics on the lake ecosystems. Here we presented data on the effect of typhoons on algal cell size based on field observation. Then turbulence simulation systems were used to decipher the response of natural phytoplankton communities to a range of turbulence regimes (linked to typhoon-induced turbulence intensity) under laboratory conditions. Turbulence intensities of 6.17 × 10-3, 1.10 × 10-2 and 1.80 × 10-2 m2/s3 benefited algal growth and triggered abrupt switches from unicellular Chlorella dominated to colonial Microcystis dominance, and the abundance of colonial algae depended on the turbulence intensity. Under the influence of elevated turbulence, Microcystis dominated biomass increased by 2.60-6.58 times compared with that of Chlorella. At a given phytoplankton density and community composition, we observed a significant increase in extracellular microcystins (MCs) and a 47.5-fold increase in intracellular MCs with intensified turbulent mixing, suggesting that the damage of algal cells concomitantly the stimulation of toxin-producing Microcystis. Our results confirmed that the formation of large colonial algal cells, enhancement of the succession of algal species, and most importantly, the induction of toxin-producing Microcystis, were the active adaption strategy when phytoplankton were impacted by strong turbulence. The result implies that the ongoing climates changes and typhoon events are likely to contribute to undesirable outcomes concerning phytoplankton populations.

RevDate: 2019-03-24

Bai X, Zhang X, Li J, et al (2019)

Altitudinal disparity in growth of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) in response to recent climate change in northeast China.

The Science of the total environment, 670:466-477 pii:S0048-9697(19)31224-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Forests are sensitive to climate change at high altitude and high latitude. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) has experienced an unprecedented forest retreat northward during the last century. Whether the response of growth to climate has dissimilar patterns at different altitudes, and what the "altitudinal trends" of forest development will be in the future, remains unclear. We dendroclimatically investigated the impacts of climate change on the growth of larch forests along an altitudinal gradient. In total, 721 trees from 25 forest stands, representing an altitudinal range from 400 to 950 m a.s.l. in the Great Xing'an Mountains, northeast China, were sampled and used to develop tree-ring width chronologies. The results suggest that warming caused a decline in larch growth at low altitude, while tree growth increased at high altitude. The growth-climate relationships indicate that October-February temperatures were positively correlated with larch growth at low- and high-altitude sites, but negatively correlated at medium-altitude sites (ca. 600-700 m a.s.l.). April-May (early spring) temperatures and October-January precipitation had positive effects on growth in general (ca. 75% of all sites). The effects of summer temperature/precipitation on larch growth at high-altitude sites were opposite to that at low-altitude sites. This change of response from significantly positive/negative correlation to significantly negative/positive correlation occurred gradually along the altitudinal gradient. The relationships varied significantly with altitude both in the case of temperature (R2 = 0.425, P < 0.001) and precipitation (R2 = 0.613, P < 0.001). The shift in response of larch forest to changes in summer temperature and precipitation occurred in the areas with a mean annual temperature of ca. -4 °C and ca. -5 °C, respectively; larch growth at temperatures lower or higher than these thresholds was limited by temperature and precipitation, respectively.

RevDate: 2019-03-24

Gasparrini A, AM Vicedo-Cabrera (2019)

Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia - Authors' reply.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(3):e122-e123.

RevDate: 2019-03-24

Longden T (2019)

Temperature-related mortality and climate change in Australia.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(3):e121.

RevDate: 2019-03-24

Muthamilarasan M, Singh NK, M Prasad (2019)

Multi-omics approaches for strategic improvement of stress tolerance in underutilized crop species: A climate change perspective.

Advances in genetics, 103:1-38.

For several decades, researchers are working toward improving the "major" crops for better adaptability and tolerance to environmental stresses. However, little or no research attention is given toward neglected and underutilized crop species (NUCS) which hold the potential to ensure food and nutritional security among the ever-growing global population. NUCS are predominantly climate resilient, but their yield and quality are compromised due to selective breeding. In this context, the importance of omics technologies namely genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, phenomics and ionomics in delineating the complex molecular machinery governing growth, development and stress responses of NUCS is underlined. However, gaining insights through individual omics approaches will not be sufficient to address the research questions, whereas integrating these technologies could be an effective strategy to decipher the gene function, genome structures, biological pathways, metabolic and regulatory networks underlying complex traits. Given this, the chapter enlists the importance of NUCS in food and nutritional security and provides an overview of deploying omics approaches to study the NUCS. Also, the chapter enumerates the status of crop improvement programs in NUCS and suggests implementing "integrating omics" for gaining a better understanding of crops' response to abiotic and biotic stresses.

RevDate: 2019-03-23

Attiaoui I, T Boufateh (2019)

Impacts of climate change on cereal farming in Tunisia: a panel ARDL-PMG approach.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-04867-y [Epub ahead of print].

We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling to investigate the short- and long-term effects of climate change on Tunisian cereal farming. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation as well as Granger causality tests conducted on a regional panel of the country, covering a time horizon from 1975 to 2014, showed that climate change issues still persist in Tunisia, affecting negatively and increasingly the cereal output. This study proves that negative effects of climate are rather felt when there is a shortage of rainfall, whereas the current temperature levels are still in favor of cereal crop. The findings indicate that cereal farming requires a continuous technology pack deployment and a favorable climate. However, an unanticipated long-run relationship has been observed between cereal production and labor. As a result of this research, recommendations were built around two major strategies, namely yield improvement and farmers' income stabilization to mitigate the unpredictable effects of climate change and hazardous events. The implementation of a production and regional specialization map and the adoption of an anti-drought insurance system in addition to compensation payment would be a suitable adaptation policy to climate change effects and for the sustainability of Tunisian agriculture.

RevDate: 2019-03-23

Crkvencic N, J Šlapeta (2019)

Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia.

Parasites & vectors, 12(1):137 pii:10.1186/s13071-019-3399-6.

BACKGROUND: Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling.

RESULTS: Typing of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade 'Sydney' haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59-42.21% in 2050 and 27.08-58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline.

CONCLUSIONS: As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade 'Cairns' haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.

RevDate: 2019-03-25
CmpDate: 2019-03-25

Tal A (2019)

The implications of climate change driven depletion of Lake Kinneret water levels: the compelling case for climate change-triggered precipitation impact on Lake Kinneret's low water levels.

The Science of the total environment, 664:1045-1051.

The dramatic drop in water levels in the Kinneret Lake (Sea of Galilee) during the past years is evaluated. Recently published measurements of temperature, precipitation and other hydrological data support the position that climate change is driving the contraction of this iconic water resource. The article presents a range of evidence confirming long-term shifts in the hydrological dynamics of the watershed and details the associated ecological implications. In response to these trends, Israel's government has decided to build a desalination plant along the Northern Mediterranean shoreline that will provide water to replenish the depleted water levels in lake. Given the likelihood of continued global warming expediting increased evaporation and reduced precipitation, such climate adaptation policies constitute prudent public policy.

RevDate: 2019-03-22

Zlonis KJ, JR Etterson (2019)

Constituents of a mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and predicted response to selection under simulated climate change.

American journal of botany [Epub ahead of print].

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Polyploids possess unique attributes that influence their environmental tolerance and geographic distribution. It is often unknown, however, whether cytotypes within mixed-ploidy populations are also uniquely adapted and differ in their responses to environmental change. Here, we examine whether diploids and hexaploids from a single mixed-ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and potential response to natural selection under conditions simulating climate change.

METHODS: Clonal replicates of diploid and hexaploid genotypes were grown in a randomized split-plot design under two temperature (+1.9°C) and two watering treatments (-13% soil moisture) implemented with open-top passive chambers placed under rainout shelters. Physiological, phenological, morphological traits, and a fitness correlate, reproductive biomass, were measured and compared among treatments.

KEY RESULTS: Differences in traits suggest that diploids are currently better adapted to low- water availability than hexaploids. Both ploidy levels had adaptive plastic responses to treatments and are predicted to respond to selection, but often for different traits. Water availability generally had a stronger effect than temperature, but for some traits the effect of water depended on temperature.

CONCLUSIONS: Diploid and hexaploid S. altissima may maintain fitness in the short term through adaptive plasticity and evolution depending on which traits are important in a warmer, drier environment. Hexaploids may be at a disadvantage compared to diploids because fewer traits were heritable. Our results underscore the importance of studying combinations of climate variables that are predicted to change simultaneously.

RevDate: 2019-03-22

Fuller RS, ME McGlaughlin (2019)

Calochortus gunnisonii furthers evidence for the complex genetic legacy of historical climate change in the southern Rocky Mountains.

American journal of botany [Epub ahead of print].

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate cycles of the Quaternary have impacted plants at a global scale, leaving behind a complex genetic legacy. Species of the northern Rocky Mountains of North America were exposed to more uniform glacial patterns than the central and southern ranges, where synergistic relationships between temperature and precipitation caused differences in the timing and extent of glacier onset. We examined the genetic impacts of climate oscillations on Calochortus gunnisonii (Liliaceae) in the central and southern Rocky Mountains.

METHODS: Populations were sampled from disjunct mountain ranges across the basins of Wyoming and northern and central Colorado. Allelic data from nuclear microsatellites and plastid sequences (trnV-ndhC, petA-psbJ, and rpl16) were used to examine patterns of genetic structure between and among populations along the southern Rocky Mountain corridor.

KEY RESULTS: We infer considerable population structure concordant with mountain range of origin. Clustering analysis supports separate north and south genetic clusters on either side of major basins in Wyoming, suggesting that populations were maintained in two distinct refugia. Additionally, populations within the Sierra Madre Range of southern Wyoming show localized, divergent genetic signal indicative of a third potential glacial refugium. By contrast, recent genetic admixture is observed in the Laramie, Medicine Bow, and Front ranges, where population expansion from glacial refugia has likely occurred.

CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that during climate cycles of the Quaternary, C. gunnisonii experienced periods of population expansion and reduction, habitat fragmentation, isolation in three or more refugia, and admixture mirroring genetic impacts of other southern Rocky Mountains organisms.

RevDate: 2019-03-22

Agamuthu P, Ragossnig AM, C Velis (2019)

Publishing impactful interdisciplinary waste-related research on global challenges: Circular economy, climate change and plastics pollution.

Waste management & research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA, 37(4):313-314.

RevDate: 2019-03-22

Her Y, Yoo SH, Cho J, et al (2019)

Uncertainty in hydrological analysis of climate change: multi-parameter vs. multi-GCM ensemble predictions.

Scientific reports, 9(1):4974 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-41334-7.

The quantification of uncertainty in the ensemble-based predictions of climate change and the corresponding hydrological impact is necessary for the development of robust climate adaptation plans. Although the equifinality of hydrological modeling has been discussed for a long time, its influence on the hydrological analysis of climate change has not been studied enough to provide a definite idea about the relative contributions of uncertainty contained in both multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and multi-parameter ensembles to hydrological projections. This study demonstrated that the impact of multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty on direct runoff projections for headwater watersheds could be an order of magnitude larger than that of multi-parameter ensemble uncertainty. The finding suggests that the selection of appropriate GCMs should be much more emphasized than that of a parameter set among behavioral ones. When projecting soil moisture and groundwater, on the other hand, the hydrological modeling equifinality was more influential than the multi-GCM ensemble uncertainty. Overall, the uncertainty of GCM projections was dominant for relatively rapid hydrological components while the uncertainty of hydrological model parameterization was more significant for slow components. In addition, uncertainty in hydrological projections was much more closely associated with uncertainty in the ensemble projections of precipitation than temperature, indicating a need to pay closer attention to precipitation data for improved modeling reliability. Uncertainty in hydrological component ensemble projections showed unique responses to uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature ensembles.

RevDate: 2019-03-21

Pohl B, Joly D, Pergaud J, et al (2019)

Huge decrease of frost frequency in the Mont-Blanc Massif under climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):4919 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-41398-5.

Mountains are a sensitive indicator of climate change and these areas are an early glimpse of what could happen in lowland environments. Peaking at 4808 m asl, the Mont-Blanc summit, at the boundary between France and Italy, is the highest of the Alps, in Western Europe. Its Massif is world-famous for outdoor and extreme sport activities, especially since the 1924 Olympic games held in Chamonix. Here, we use a novel statistical downscaling approach to regionalize current and future climate change over the Mont-Blanc Massif at an unequalled spatial resolution of 200 m. The algorithm is applied to daily minimum and maximum temperature derived from global climate models used in the fifth assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This new high-resolution database allows for a precise quantification of frost occurrence and its evolution until 2100. In the winter season and by the end of the 21st century, under a pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), frost frequency in the morning could decrease by 30-35 percentage points in the valley of Chamonix, and in the afternoon, similar changes could occur for elevations comprised between 2000 and 3000 m. In summertime, changes are even larger, reaching a huge drop of 45-50 points in the afternoon between 3500 and 4500 m. These changes are much reduced under an optimistic scenario. They could have huge impacts on the environment (glacier shrinking, permafrost degradation, floods, changes in the distribution of species and ecosystems) and societies (summer tourism for climbing and hiking, and winter tourism for skiing).

RevDate: 2019-03-21

Danneyrolles V, Dupuis S, Fortin G, et al (2019)

Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests.

Nature communications, 10(1):1265 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z.

Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km2) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.

RevDate: 2019-03-20

Coltri PP, Pinto HS, Gonçalves RRDV, et al (2019)

Low levels of shade and climate change adaptation of Arabica coffee in southeastern Brazil.

Heliyon, 5(2):e01263 pii:e01263.

Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, and its international market has been growing for many years. Unfortunately, the Brazilian coffee production is threatened by high temperatures projected by climate change models. We evaluated three schemes of low levels of shade, which avoid the loss of production, as a strategy to adapt coffee to possible climate change. Additionally, as field measurements are expensive and often difficult to implement, we used numerical simulation to complement the evaluation. The microclimate simulator software Envi-met is a computer program often used to simulate urban environments, and we tested it on agriculture design. We verified that the shaded schemes assessed in the field decreased the air temperature in 0.6 °C in the studied period and reduced other possible climate stressors such as wind speed, radiation and raised air humidity in the dry period. Envi-met described the studied meteorological variable cycle very well, showing that combining numerical modelling and field research may be an important tool for planning the adaptation of the coffee sector to possible climate change, allowing growers choose a proper technique for their regions and environmental conditions. Finally, we highlighted the importance of planning the shade scheme on coffee areas in an interdisciplinary approach, including local climate evaluation to achieve a balance between temperature attenuation and production.

RevDate: 2019-03-20

Warren M (2019)

Thousands of scientists are backing the kids striking for climate change.

Nature, 567(7748):291-292.

RevDate: 2019-03-20

Chersich MF, CY Wright (2019)

Climate change adaptation in South Africa: a case study on the role of the health sector.

Globalization and health, 15(1):22 pii:10.1186/s12992-019-0466-x.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the response to climate change is gradually gaining momentum as the impacts of climate change unfold. In South Africa, it is increasingly apparent that delays in responding to climate change over the past decades have jeopardized human life and livelihoods. While slow progress with mitigation, especially in the energy sector, has garnered much attention, focus is now shifting to developing plans and systems to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

METHODS: We applied systematic review methods to assess progress with climate change adaptation in the health sector in South Africa. This case study provides useful lessons which could be applied in other countries in the African region, or globally. We reviewed the literature indexed in PubMed and Web of Science, together with relevant grey literature. We included articles describing adaptation interventions to reduce the impact of climate change on health in South Africa. All study designs were eligible. Data from included articles and grey literature were summed thematically.

RESULTS: Of the 820 publications screened, 21 were included, together with an additional xx papers. Very few studies presented findings of an intervention or used high-quality research designs. Several policy frameworks for climate change have been developed at national and local government levels. These, however, pay little attention to health concerns and the specific needs of vulnerable groups. Systems for forecasting extreme weather, and tracking malaria and other infections appear well established. Yet, there is little evidence about the country's preparedness for extreme weather events, or the ability of the already strained health system to respond to these events. Seemingly, few adaptation measures have taken place in occupational and other settings. To date, little attention has been given to climate change in training curricula for health workers.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the volume and quality of research is disappointing, and disproportionate to the threat posed by climate change in South Africa. This is surprising given that the requisite expertise for policy advocacy, identifying effective interventions and implementing systems-based approaches rests within the health sector. More effective use of data, a traditional strength of health professionals, could support adaptation and promote accountability of the state. With increased health-sector leadership, climate change could be reframed as predominately a health issue, one necessitating an urgent, adequately-resourced response. Such a shift in South Africa, but also beyond the country, may play a key role in accelerating climate change adaptation and mitigation.

RevDate: 2019-03-20

Rivrud IM, Meisingset EL, Loe LE, et al (2019)

Future suitability of habitat in a migratory ungulate under climate change.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 286(1899):20190442.

With climate change, the effect of global warming on snow cover is expected to cause range expansion and enhance habitat suitability for species at their northern distribution limits. However, how this depends on landscape topography and sex in size-dimorphic species remains uncertain, and is further complicated for migratory animals following climate-driven seasonal resource fluctuations across vast landscapes. Using 11 years of data from a partially migratory ungulate at their northern distribution ranges, the red deer (Cervus elaphus), we predicted sex-specific summer and winter habitat suitability in diverse landscapes under medium and severe global warming. We found large increases in future winter habitat suitability, resulting in expansion of winter ranges as currently unsuitable habitat became suitable. Even moderate warming decreased snow cover substantially, with no suitability difference between warming scenarios. Winter ranges will hence not expand linearly with warming, even for species at their northern distribution limits. Although less pronounced than in winter, summer ranges also expanded and more so under severe warming. Summer habitat suitability was positively correlated with landscape topography and ranges expanded more for females than males. Our study highlights the complexity of predicting future habitat suitability for conservation and management of size-dimorphic, migratory species under global warming.

RevDate: 2019-03-19

Strandén I, Kantanen J, Russo IM, et al (2019)

Genomic selection strategies for breeding adaptation and production in dairy cattle under climate change.

Heredity pii:10.1038/s41437-019-0207-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Livestock production both contributes to and is affected by global climate change, and substantial modifications will be required to increase its climate resilience. In this context, reliance on dominant commercial livestock breeds, featuring small effective population sizes, makes current production strategies vulnerable if their production is restricted to environments, which may be too costly to support under future climate scenarios. The adaptability of animal populations to future environments will therefore become important. To help evaluate the role of genetics in climate adaptation, we compared selection strategies in dairy cattle using breeding simulations, where genomic selection was used on two negatively correlated traits for production (assumed to be moderately heritable) and adaptation (assumed to have low heritability). Compared with within-population breeding, genomic introgression produced a more positive genetic change for both production and adaptation traits. Genomic introgression from highly adapted but low production value populations into highly productive but low adaptation populations was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a lower selection weight than the production trait. Genomic introgression from highly productive population to highly adapted population was most successful when the adaptation trait was given a higher selection weight than the production trait. Both these genomic introgression schemes had the lowest risk of inbreeding. Our results suggest that both adaptation and production can potentially be improved simultaneously by genomic introgression.

RevDate: 2019-03-18

Shepherd TG, Boyd E, Calel RA, et al (2018)

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change.

Climatic change, 151(3):555-571.

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a 'storyline' approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-03-18

Liu-Helmersson J, Rocklöv J, Sewe M, et al (2019)

Climate change may enable Aedes aegypti infestation in major European cities by 2100.

Environmental research, 172:693-699 pii:S0013-9351(19)30106-9 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Climate change allows Aedes aegypti to infest new areas. Consequently, it enables the arboviruses the mosquito transmits -- e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever - to emerge in previously uninfected areas. An example is the Portuguese island of Madeira during 2012-13.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to understand how climate change will affect the future spread of this potent vector, as an aid in assessing the risk of disease outbreaks and effectively allocating resources for vector control.

METHODS: We used an empirically-informed, process-based mathematical model to study the feasibility of Aedes aegypti infestation into continental Europe. Based on established global climate-change scenario data, we assess the potential of Aedes aegypti to establish in Europe over the 21st century by estimating the vector population growth rate for five climate models (GCM5).

RESULTS: In a low carbon emission future (RCP2.6), we find minimal change to the current situation throughout the whole of the 21st century. In a high carbon future (RCP8.5), a large parts of southern Europe risks being invaded by Aedes aegypti.

CONCLUSION: Our results show that successfully enforcing the Paris Agreement by limiting global warming to below 2 °C significantly lowers the risk for infestation of Aedes aegypti and consequently of potential large-scale arboviral disease outbreaks in Europe within the 21st century.

RevDate: 2019-03-18

Piao S, Liu Q, Chen A, et al (2019)

Plant phenology and global climate change: current progresses and challenges.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Plant phenology, the annually recurring sequence of plant developmental stages, is important for plant functioning and ecosystem services and their biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system. Plant phenology depends on temperature, and the current rapid climate change has revived interest in understanding and modelling the responses of plant phenology to the warming trend and the consequences thereof for ecosystems. Here, we review recent progresses in plant phenology and its interactions with climate change. Focusing on the start (leaf unfolding) and end (leaf coloring) of plant growing seasons, we show that the recent rapid expansion in ground- and remote sensing- based phenology data acquisition has been highly beneficial and has supported major advances in plant phenology research. Studies using multiple data sources and methods generally agree on the trends of advanced leaf unfolding and delayed leaf coloring due to climate change, yet these trends appear to have decelerated or even reversed in recent years. Our understanding of the mechanisms underlying the plant phenology responses to climate warming is still limited. The interactions between multiple drivers complicates the modelling and prediction of plant phenology changes. Furthermore, changes in plant phenology have important implications for ecosystem carbon cycles and ecosystem feedbacks to climate, yet the quantification of such impacts remains challenging. We suggest that future studies should primarily focus on using new observation tools to improve the understanding of tropical plant phenology, on improving process-based phenology modelling, and on the scaling of phenology from species to landscape-level. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-03-17

Bhutta ZA, Aimone A, S Akhtar (2019)

Climate change and global child health: what can paediatricians do?.

RevDate: 2019-03-17

Sisodiya SM, Scheffer IE, Lowenstein DH, et al (2019)

Why should a neurologist worry about climate change?.

The Lancet. Neurology, 18(4):335-336.

RevDate: 2019-03-16

Anderson GB, Barnes EA, Bell ML, et al (2019)

The future of climate epidemiology: Opportunities for advancing health research in the context of climate change.

American journal of epidemiology pii:5381895 [Epub ahead of print].

In the coming decades, climate change is expected to dramatically affect communities worldwide, altering the patterns of many ambient exposures and disasters, including extreme temperatures, heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and floods. These exposures in turn can affect risks for a variety of human diseases and health outcomes. Climate epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy related to climate change and its threats to public health. Climate epidemiology leverages deep, integrated collaborations between epidemiologists and climate scientists to understand the current and potential future impacts of climate-related exposures on human health. A variety of recent and ongoing developments in climate science are creating new avenues for epidemiological contributions. Here, we discuss the contributions of climate epidemiology and describe some key current research directions, including research to better characterize uncertainty in climate health projections. We end by outlining three developing areas of climate science that are creating opportunities for high-impact epidemiological advances in the near future: (1) climate attribution studies, (2) subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, and (3) decadal predictions.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Foster S, Leichenko R, Nguyen KH, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 6: Community-Based Assessments of Adaptation and Equity.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):126-173.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Solecki W, C Rosenzweig (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):280-305.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Gornitz V, Oppenheimer M, Kopp R, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 3: Sea Level Rise.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):71-94.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

González JE, Ortiz L, Smith BK, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):30-70.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Blake R, Jacob K, Yohe G, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 8: Indicators and Monitoring.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):230-279.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Anonymous (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report: Conclusions and Recommendations.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):306-311.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Zimmerman R, Foster S, González JE, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 7: Resilience Strategies for Critical Infrastructures and Their Interdependencies.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):174-229.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Anonymous (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Executive Summary.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):11-21.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Patrick L, Solecki W, Gornitz V, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):115-125.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Rosenzweig C, W Solecki (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 1: Introduction.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):22-29.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Orton P, Lin N, Gornitz V, et al (2019)

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1439(1):95-114.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Riojas-Rodríguez H, Quezada-Jiménez ML, Zúñiga-Bello P, et al (2018)

Climate Change and Potential Health Effects in Mexican Children.

Annals of global health, 84(2):281-284.

Climate change (CC) is the most important challenge of our time, a long-term global problem and one of the most serious global threats to human health in the future. CC is the expression of changes in temperature and water cycle, floods and drought events, extreme heat waves and sea level rise. Children are particularly vulnerable because they are highly sensitive to climate changes. The main environmental hazards affecting children's health are poor household drinking water quality and availability, lack access to adequate sanitary facilities, poor hygiene practices, outdoor and indoor air pollution, vector-borne diseases, chemical hazards, and unintentional injuries. Except for some unintentional injuries, these environmental hazards are associated to CC.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Germond B, FW Ha (2019)

Climate change and maritime security narrative: the case of the international maritime organisation.

Journal of environmental studies and sciences, 9(1):1-12.

Both climate change and maritime security are currently ranking high on states' and international organisations' political and governance agendas. However, academics and practitioners alike have hardly tackled the actual interlinkages and dependencies between the two issues. Taking the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as a case study, this article pioneers the use of corpus linguistic method to unravel the nonexistence of a narrative linking climate change impacts and the occurrence of maritime criminality despite some connections in practice. However, direct narrative links between climate change and migration as well as migration and maritime security were found, which can point at an indirect link between climate change and maritime security. The article concludes on the implications of these findings for academics and practitioners alike. The latter are encouraged to reflect on their current narrative in a bid to contribute to a better acknowledgement of the existing links between the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems and aspects of maritime security.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Takemura T, K Suzuki (2019)

Weak global warming mitigation by reducing black carbon emissions.

Scientific reports, 9(1):4419 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-41181-6.

Reducing black carbon (BC), i.e. soot, in the atmosphere is a potential mitigation measure for climate change before revealing the effect of reducing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) because BC with shorter lifetime than CO2 absorbs solar and infrared radiation. BC has a strong positive radiative forcing in the atmosphere, as indicated in many previous studies. Here, we show that the decline in surface air temperatures with reduced BC emissions is weaker than would be expected from the magnitude of its instantaneous radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Climate simulations show that the global mean change in surface air temperature per unit of instantaneous radiative forcing of BC at the TOA is about one-eighth that of sulphate aerosols, which cool the climate through scattering solar radiation, without absorption. This is attributed to the positive radiation budget of BC being largely compensated for by rapid atmospheric adjustment, whereas the radiative imbalance due to sulphate aerosols drives a slow response of climate over a long timescale. Regional climate responses to short-lived species are shown to exhibit even more complex characteristics due to their heterogeneous spatial distributions, requiring further analysis in future studies.

RevDate: 2019-03-15

Whitehorn J, S Yacoub (2019)

Global warming and arboviral infections.

Clinical medicine (London, England), 19(2):149-152.

Climate change is already expanding the geographic footprint of arboviral infections. In this article we consider the impact of climate change on three arboviruses with particular consideration of the effect on Europe.

RevDate: 2019-03-14

Baskent EZ (2019)

Exploring the effects of climate change mitigation scenarios on timber, water, biodiversity and carbon values: A case study in Pozantı planning unit, Turkey.

Journal of environmental management, 238:420-433 pii:S0301-4797(19)30314-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study evaluated the performance of three climate change mitigation management scenarios; business as usual (BAU), low intensity management (LIM) and high intensity management (HIM) to provide ecosystem services. ETCAP simulation model was used to forecast forest development for Pozantı area with 17,603 ha forests in Turkey. Wood production, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and water provision were the primary ecosystem services. The species composition, natural composition, key habitats and understory vegetation are maintained and small forest openings were left intact for wildlife. Some forest areas were allowed to develop older to provide better opportunities of biodiversity conservation. The increase of carbon stock was related to age class shifts to older stages due mainly to increasing afforestation areas and productivity. The marginal differences in total carbon balance were related to a smaller increase in volume increment in BAU scenario and a higher allocation of harvest to energy production for the LIM and HIM scenarios. The planning scenarios allowed better production of water runoffs with slight differences among the output of management scenarios. The prevailing variable was the areas of afforestation. The impacts of a forest management scenario on ecosystem services highly depend on the development rate and intensity of management interventions.

RevDate: 2019-03-14

Mabhaudhi T, Chimonyo VGP, Hlahla S, et al (2019)

Prospects of orphan crops in climate change.

Planta pii:10.1007/s00425-019-03129-y [Epub ahead of print].

MAIN CONCLUSION: Orphan crops can contribute to building resilience of marginal cropping systems as a climate chnage adaptation strategy. Orphan crops play an important role in global food and nutrition security, and may have potential to contribute to sustainable food systems under climate change. Owing to reports of their potential under water scarcity, there is an argument to promote them to sustainably address challenges such as increasing drought and water scarcity, food and nutrition insecurity, environmental degradation, and employment creation under climate change. We conducted a scoping review using online databases to identify the prospects of orphan crops to contribute to (1) sustainable and healthy food systems, (2) genetic resources for future crop improvement, and (3) improving agricultural sustainability under climate change. The review found that, as a product of generations of landrace agriculture, several orphan crops are nutritious, resilient, and adapted to niche marginal agricultural environments. Including such orphan crops in the existing monocultural cropping systems could support more sustainable, nutritious, and diverse food systems in marginalised agricultural environments. Orphan crops also represent a broad gene pool for future crop improvement. The reduction in arable land due to climate change offers opportunities to expand the area under their production. Their suitability to marginal niche and low-input environments offers opportunities for low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from an agro-ecosystems, production, and processing perspective. This, together with their status as a sub-set of agro-biodiversity, offers opportunities to address socio-economic and environmental challenges under climate change. With research and development, and policy to support them, orphan crops could play an important role in climate-change adaptation, especially in the global south.

RevDate: 2019-03-14

Sosa V, Loera I, Angulo DF, et al (2019)

Climate change and conservation in a warm North American desert: effect in shrubby plants.

PeerJ, 7:e6572 pii:6572.

Background: Deserts are biologically rich habitats with a vast array of animals and plants adapted to xeric conditions, and most deserts are among the planet's last remaining areas of total wilderness. Among North American deserts, the Chihuahuan Desert has the highest levels of diversity and endemism. To understand the effect of future climate change on plants distributed in this arid land and propose effective conservation planning, we focused on five endemic shrubby species that characterize the Chihuahuan Desert and used an integrative approach.

Methods: Ecological niche-based modeling, spatial genetics and ecological resistance analyses were carried out to identify the effect of global warming on the studied five shrubby species. Key areas that need to be preserved were identified taking into account the existing protected areas within the Chihuahuan Desert.

Results: The extent of future distribution will vary among these species, and on average expansion will occur in the western part of the Chihuahuan Desert. For most species low environmental resistance to gene flow was predicted, while higher future resistance was predicted for one species that would lead to increased population isolation. The highest haplotype diversity was identified in three hotspots. Based on future suitability of habitat and in the haplotype diversity we suggest preserving two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental, located in areas without protection. The third hotspot was detected in the well preserved Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Man and Biosphere Reserve.

Conclusion: Global climate change will have an effect in arid adapted plants, favoring expansion in the western of the Chihuahuan Desert however negatively affecting others with high ecological resistance disrupting gene flow. Two hotspots of genetic diversity in the Sierra Madre Oriental should be protected.

RevDate: 2019-03-14

Barnard PL, Erikson LH, Foxgrover AC, et al (2019)

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):4309 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-40742-z.

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world's 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state's GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three-fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

RevDate: 2019-03-14

Pino M, Abarzúa AM, Astorga G, et al (2019)

Sedimentary record from Patagonia, southern Chile supports cosmic-impact triggering of biomass burning, climate change, and megafaunal extinctions at 12.8 ka.

Scientific reports, 9(1):4413 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-38089-y.

The Younger Dryas (YD) impact hypothesis posits that fragments of a large, disintegrating asteroid/comet struck North America, South America, Europe, and western Asia ~12,800 years ago. Multiple airbursts/impacts produced the YD boundary layer (YDB), depositing peak concentrations of platinum, high-temperature spherules, meltglass, and nanodiamonds, forming an isochronous datum at >50 sites across ~50 million km² of Earth's surface. This proposed event triggered extensive biomass burning, brief impact winter, YD climate change, and contributed to extinctions of late Pleistocene megafauna. In the most extensive investigation south of the equator, we report on a ~12,800-year-old sequence at Pilauco, Chile (~40°S), that exhibits peak YD boundary concentrations of platinum, gold, high-temperature iron- and chromium-rich spherules, and native iron particles rarely found in nature. A major peak in charcoal abundance marks an intense biomass-burning episode, synchronous with dramatic changes in vegetation, including a high-disturbance regime, seasonality in precipitation, and warmer conditions. This is anti-phased with northern-hemispheric cooling at the YD onset, whose rapidity suggests atmospheric linkage. The sudden disappearance of megafaunal remains and dung fungi in the YDB layer at Pilauco correlates with megafaunal extinctions across the Americas. The Pilauco record appears consistent with YDB impact evidence found at sites on four continents.

RevDate: 2019-03-14

Peek B (2019)

groundWork Environmental Justice Action Climate Change Letter to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, December 2018.

New solutions : a journal of environmental and occupational health policy : NS [Epub ahead of print].

groundWork is one of South Africa's leading environmental justice organizations and the local affiliate of Friend of the Earth. It was formed in 1999 to support people's struggles for environmental justice. In the most unequal of countries, groundWork is part of the struggle for an egalitarian society in which people can live well with each other and with the earth. The following letter was sent to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in December 2018 urging him to take a Just Transition approach to climate change policies so that the economic and social transition eliminates poverty, improves public health, and strengthens the nation's democracy.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Greenberg MR (2019)

A Persuasive Presentation Connecting the Dots Between Climate Change and Public Health.

American journal of public health, 109(4):527-529.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Veldsman LM, Kylin H, Bronkhorst P, et al (2019)

A method to determine the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and eggshell thickness on water loss from bird eggs.

Environmental geochemistry and health pii:10.1007/s10653-019-00274-x [Epub ahead of print].

Differences in bird eggshell thicknesses occur due to numerous factors, including thinning due to persistent organic pollutants. Not only does thinning weaken the shell; weaker shells combined with elevated ambient temperature and changes in humidities may result in changes in water loss rates from the egg contents. Therefore, thinner eggshells raise concern of water being lost faster than normal at lower relative humidities, which may affect hatching. To investigate the combined effects, we developed and tested an effective method that measures water loss through different thickness eggshells at controlled temperatures and relative humidities to assist in ascertaining the combined effects of climate change (temperature and humidity) and changes in eggshell thickness on bird reproduction. The fastest rate of loss was at 40% RH at 40 °C (0.1 mL/cm2/day), and the slowest was at 22 °C at 80% RH (0.02 mL/cm2/day). Eggshell thickness had a significant effect on water loss at all humidity treatments, except at the highest temperature and humidity treatment (80% RH and 40 °C). Temperature explained 40% of the variance, RH explained 20%, and interactions between temperature and humidity explained 15% of the variance (repeated-measures, two-way ANOVA). Generalized linear analyses revealed that both factors temperature and humidity contributed significantly in any two-way combinations. We have laid the ground for a system to test the combined effects of temperature and humidity changes associated with climate change and eggshell thinning associated with pollutants, on water loss across eggshells.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Wang CJ, Li QF, JZ Wan (2019)

Potential invasive plant expansion in global ecoregions under climate change.

PeerJ, 7:e6479 pii:6479.

Climate change is increasing the risk of invasive plant expansion worldwide. However, few studies have specified the relationship between invasive plant expansion and ecoregions at the global scale under climate change. To address this gap, we provide risk maps highlighting the response of invasive plant species (IPS), with a focus on terrestrial and freshwater ecoregions to climate change, and further explore the climatic features of ecosystems with a high potential for invasive plant expansion under climate change. We use species distribution modelling to predict the suitable habitats of IPS with records at the global scale. Hotspots with a potential risk of IPS (such as aquatic plants, trees, and herbs) expanding in global ecoregions were distributed in Northern Europe, the UK, South America, North America, southwest China, and New Zealand. Temperature changes were related to the potential of IPS expansion in global ecoregions under climate change. Coastal and high latitude ecoregions, such as temperate forests, alpine vegetation, and coastal rivers, were severely infiltrated by IPS under climate change. Monitoring strategies should be defined for climate change for IPS, particularly for aquatic plants, trees, and herbs in the biomes of regions with coastal or high latitudes. The role of climate change on the potential for IPS expansion should be taken into consideration for biological conservation and risk evaluation of IPS at ecoregional scales.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Nyahunda L, HM Tirivangasi (2019)

Challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye communal lands, Zimbabwe.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):596 pii:JAMBA-11-596.

The phenomenon of climate change is one of the most contested and debated concepts globally. Some governments still deny the existence of climate change and its impact on rural-urban areas around the world. However, the effects of climate change have been visible in rural Zimbabwe, with some communities facing food insecurity, water scarcity and loss of livestock. Climate change has impacted negatively on agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood in Zimbabwe's rural communities. This study aims at exploring challenges faced by rural people in mitigating the effects of climate change in the Mazungunye community, Masvingo Province, in Zimbabwe. The objectives of the study were to identify the challenges that impede effective adaptation of rural people to climate change hazards and to examine their perceptions on how to foster effective adaptation. The researchers conducted a qualitative research study guided by descriptive and exploratory research designs. Purposive sampling was employed to draw the population of the study. The population sample consisted of 26 research participants drawn from members of the community. Data was collected through in-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse data. The findings of the study revealed the following challenges: unpredictability of indigenous knowledge systems, lack of resources and technoscience adaptive methods, lack of support to implement viable mitigation strategies, lack of information about resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change. This study has significance to policymakers and other stakeholders concerned with devising and implementing policies and programmes that are responsive to rural people's needs in the climate change terrain, tapping into their presenting challenges as a departure point for intervention. The study recommended that the most important way to help rural poor people adapt to climate change is through the provision of information; immediate response to needs and climate-smart agricultural policies.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Mondal MSH (2019)

The implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development in Bangladesh.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):535 pii:JAMBA-11-535.

Bangladesh is characterised by its large population on a small land, rapid and unplanned urbanisation, rising urban inequalities, food and nutritional insecurity and lower level of resilience to climate change. These combined effects are major threats to food security of the country in the near future. This paper examined the implications of population growth and climate change on sustainable development of Bangladesh. This research was based on the analysis of chronological data and synthesis of literature on population growth, greenhouse gases emission, climate change, food security and sustainable development, mainly contextualised on Bangladesh. The analysis found that the population of Bangladesh has almost doubled between 1980 and 2015. The country shared around 2.2% (in 2013) of global population and contributed only 0.19% of global carbon dioxide emission. On the contrary, climate change is the biggest challenge for the country. An increase in temperature could decline rice and wheat production. Moreover, average monsoon rainfall would be increased as a result of increased temperature. The increase in temperature and rainfall may lead to early arrival and late departure of the monsoon season or an increase in mean daily rainfall intensity. Population growth and climate change have multiple implications on development. Therefore, sustainable development may be difficult to attain if climate change continues to jeopardise economic growth, environmental stability as well as the social progress of Bangladesh.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Mega ER (2019)

Cuba acknowledges climate change threats in its constitution.

Nature, 567(7747):155.

RevDate: 2019-03-13

Valenzuela N, Literman R, Neuwald JL, et al (2019)

Extreme thermal fluctuations from climate change unexpectedly accelerate demographic collapse of vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

Scientific reports, 9(1):4254 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-40597-4.

Global climate is warming rapidly, threatening vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by disrupting sex ratios and other traits. Less understood are the effects of increased thermal fluctuations predicted to accompany climate change. Greater fluctuations could accelerate feminization of species that produce females under warmer conditions (further endangering TSD animals), or counter it (reducing extinction risk). Here we use novel experiments exposing eggs of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) to replicated profiles recorded in field nests plus mathematically-modified profiles of similar shape but wider oscillations, and develop a new mathematical model for analysis. We show that broadening fluctuations around naturally male-producing (cooler) profiles feminizes developing embryos, whereas embryos from warmer profiles remain female or die. This occurs presumably because wider oscillations around cooler profiles expose embryos to very low temperatures that inhibit development, and to feminizing temperatures where most embryogenesis accrues. Likewise, embryos incubated under broader fluctuations around warmer profiles experience mostly feminizing temperatures, some dangerously high (which increase mortality), and fewer colder values that are insufficient to induce male development. Therefore, as thermal fluctuations escalate with global warming, the feminization of TSD turtle populations could accelerate, facilitating extinction by demographic collapse. Aggressive global CO2 mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6) could prevent these risks, while intermediate actions (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios) yield moderate feminization, highlighting the peril that insufficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions pose for TSD taxa. If our findings are generalizable, TSD squamates, tuatara, and crocodilians that produce males at warmer temperatures could suffer accelerated masculinization, underscoring the broad taxonomic threats of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-03-12

Hu J, Huang Y, Jiang J, et al (2019)

Genetic diversity in frogs linked to past and future climate change on the roof of the world.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Mountains, representing storehouses of biodiversity, endemism, and threatened species, are biodiversity hotspots of great conservation importance. However, increasing evidence indicates that mountain species throughout the world are responding to climate change, past or contemporary, by shifting their geographic distributions and patterns of genetic diversity, potentially affecting their adaptive capacity and increasing risk of extinction. Using the iconic high-elevation frog Nanorana parkeri as indicator, we showed how spatial analyses of climatic stability combined with genetic data allow unravelling amphibian responses to past and future climate changes on 'the roof of the world'-the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We found that areas along the Yarlung Tsangpo Valley were climatically more stable relative to other regions, apparently serving as a large climatic refugium during Quaternary glaciations, but that these areas will likely be affected by future climate change. As populations closer to Quaternary refugia usually had higher genetic diversity, current genetic diversity can be explained in the largest part by distance to historically stable areas, outweighing other historical and contemporary factors. Along with the dynamics of suitable range, a fluctuating habitat fragmentation supported the pattern of historical changes in genetic diversity (Ne) over time. Our results emphasize strong relationships between amphibian genetic diversity, past range dynamics, and where to preserve suitable habitats in the face of future climate changes. More generally, our findings highlighted a central role of refugia during Quaternary climatic fluctuations, and how isolation from refugia may have modulated amphibian genetic diversity across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-03-12

Davis KT, Dobrowski SZ, Higuera PE, et al (2019)

Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1815107116 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is increasing fire activity in the western United States, which has the potential to accelerate climate-induced shifts in vegetation communities. Wildfire can catalyze vegetation change by killing adult trees that could otherwise persist in climate conditions no longer suitable for seedling establishment and survival. Recently documented declines in postfire conifer recruitment in the western United States may be an example of this phenomenon. However, the role of annual climate variation and its interaction with long-term climate trends in driving these changes is poorly resolved. Here we examine the relationship between annual climate and postfire tree regeneration of two dominant, low-elevation conifers (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) using annually resolved establishment dates from 2,935 destructively sampled trees from 33 wildfires across four regions in the western United States. We show that regeneration had a nonlinear response to annual climate conditions, with distinct thresholds for recruitment based on vapor pressure deficit, soil moisture, and maximum surface temperature. At dry sites across our study region, seasonal to annual climate conditions over the past 20 years have crossed these thresholds, such that conditions have become increasingly unsuitable for regeneration. High fire severity and low seed availability further reduced the probability of postfire regeneration. Together, our results demonstrate that climate change combined with high severity fire is leading to increasingly fewer opportunities for seedlings to establish after wildfires and may lead to ecosystem transitions in low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests across the western United States.

RevDate: 2019-03-12

Mercer C (2019)

Medical students call for more education on climate change.

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 191(10):E291-E292.

RevDate: 2019-03-11

Fang X, Guo X, Zhang C, et al (2019)

Contributions of climate change to the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China: A multi-dataset analysis.

The Science of the total environment, 668:631-644 pii:S0048-9697(19)30916-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Dryland ecosystems have been threatened in recent decades by rapid climate change. However, the effects of climate change and rising CO2 levels on the terrestrial carbon stock of the arid region of China remain unclear. In this study, we used three climate reanalysis datasets to drive an arid ecosystem model (AEM), which we used to assess uncertainties in spatial climate datasets. All simulations suggest that the arid region of China acted as a carbon sink (0.20-0.34 Pg C) from 1980 to 2014. However, we found large uncertainties in the spatial pattern of carbon stocks during this period, especially in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. These uncertainties are related to changes in precipitation. To reduce the uncertainty of carbon stock assessment results in the arid region of China, efforts should be implemented to improve the reliability of climate data in northern Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia. Specifically, China's policy makers should pay close attention to climate change and ecosystem health in southwestern Xinjiang. According to our study, this area experienced significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature from 1980 to 2014. The severe ecosystem degradation that occurred will very likely continue into the future. In addition, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset may overestimate ecosystem carbon sinks as this dataset overestimates the increase in precipitation in the arid region of China. Therefore, it is advisable to be cautious when using the CFSR dataset in ecological studies in northern Eurasian dryland areas.

RevDate: 2019-03-11

Wang S, Hurlstone MJ, Leviston Z, et al (2019)

Climate Change From a Distance: An Analysis of Construal Level and Psychological Distance From Climate Change.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:230.

The public perception of climate change as abstract and distant may undermine climate action. According to construal level theory, whether a phenomenon is perceived as psychologically distant or close is associated with whether it is construed as abstract or concrete, respectively. Previous work has established a link between psychological distance and climate action, but the associated role of construal level has yet to be explored in depth. In two representative surveys of Australians (N = 217 and N = 216), and one experiment (N = 319), we tested whether construal level and psychological distance from climate change predicted pro-environmental intentions and policy support, and whether manipulating distance and construal increased pro-environmental behaviors such as donations. Results showed that psychological closeness to climate change predicted more engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, while construal level produced inconsistent results, and manipulations of both variables failed to produce increases in pro-environmental behaviors. In contrast with the central tenet of construal level theory, construal level was unrelated to psychological distance in all three studies. Our findings suggest that the hypothesized relationship between construal level and psychological distance may not hold in the context of climate change, and that it may be difficult to change pro-environmental behavior by manipulating these variables.

RevDate: 2019-03-10

Adhikari K, Owens PR, Libohova Z, et al (2019)

Assessing soil organic carbon stock of Wisconsin, USA and its fate under future land use and climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 667:833-845 pii:S0048-9697(19)30930-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon stored in soils contributes to a variety of soil functions, including biomass production, water storage and filtering, biodiversity maintenance, and many other ecosystem services. Understanding soil organic carbon (SOC) spatial distribution and projection of its future condition is essential for future CO2 emission estimates and management options for storing carbon. However, modeling SOC spatiotemporal dynamics is challenging due to the inherent spatial heterogeneity and data limitation. The present study developed a spatially explicit prediction model in which the spatial relationship between SOC observation and seventeen environmental variables was established using the Cubist regression tree algorithm. The model was used to compile a baseline SOC stock map for the top 30 cm soil depth in the State of Wisconsin (WI) at a 90 m × 90 m grid resolution. Temporal SOC trend was assessed by comparing baseline and future SOC stock maps based on the space-for-time substitution model. SOC prediction for future considers land use, precipitation and temperature for the year 2050 at medium (A1B) CO2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Field soil observations were related to factors that are known to influence SOC distribution using the digital soil mapping framework. The model was validated on 25% test profiles (R2: 0.38; RMSE: 0.64; ME: -0.03) that were not used during model training that used the remaining 75% of the data (R2: 0.76; RMSE: 0.40; ME: -0.006). In addition, maps of the model error, and areal extent of Cubist prediction rules were reported. The model identified soil parent material and land use as key drivers of SOC distribution including temperature and precipitation. Among the terrain attributes, elevation, mass-balance index, mid-slope position, slope-length factor and wind effect were important. Results showed that Wisconsin soils had an average baseline SOC stock of 90 Mg ha-1 and the distribution was highly variable (CV: 64%). It was estimated that WI soils would have an additional 20 Mg ha-1 SOC by the year 2050 under changing land use and climate. Histosols and Spodosols were expected to lose 19 Mg ha-1 and 4 Mg ha-1, respectively, while Mollisols were expected to accumulate the largest SOC stock (62 Mg ha-1). All land-use types would be accumulating SOC by 2050 except for wetlands (-34 Mg C ha-1). This study found that Wisconsin soils will continue to sequester more carbon in the coming decades and most of the Driftless Area will be sequestering the greatest SOC (+63 Mg C ha-1). Most of the SOC would be lost from the Northern Lakes and Forests ecological zone (-12 Mg C ha-1). The study highlighted areas of potential C sequestration and areas under threat of C loss. The maps generated in this study would be highly useful in farm management and environmental policy decisions at different spatial levels in Wisconsin.

RevDate: 2019-03-10

Novak T, Godrijan J, Pfannkuchen DM, et al (2019)

Global warming and oligotrophication lead to increased lipid production in marine phytoplankton.

The Science of the total environment, 668:171-183 pii:S0048-9697(19)30880-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Earth temperature is rising and oligotrophication is becoming apparent even in coastal seas. In this changing environment, phytoplankton use carbon and nutrients to form important biomolecules, including lipids. However, the link between lipid production and changing environment is still unexplored. Therefore, we investigated the phytoplankton lipid production in the diatom Chaetoceros pseudocurvisetus cultures under controlled temperatures ranging from 10 to 30 °C and nutrient regimes mimicking oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions. Results were compared to plankton community's lipid production in the northern Adriatic at two stations considered as oligotrophic and mesotrophic during an annual monthly sampling. In order to gain detailed information on the investigated system, we supplemented lipid data with chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton taxonomy, cell abundances and nutrient concentration along with hydrographic parameters. We found enhanced particulate lipid production at higher temperatures, and substantially higher lipid production in oligotrophic conditions. Enhanced lipid production has two opposing roles in carbon sequestration; it can act as a retainer or a sinker. Lipid remodeling, including change in ratio of phospholipids and glycolipids, is more affected by the nutrient status, than the temperature increase. Triacylglycerol accumulation was observed under the nitrogen starvation.

RevDate: 2019-03-09

Rahman HMT, GM Hickey (2019)

Assessing Institutional Responses to Climate Change Impacts in the North-Eastern Floodplains of Bangladesh.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01155-w [Epub ahead of print].

Bangladesh encounters diverse climate change impacts at different scales, which can severely affect rural communities and livelihoods. In response, the government of Bangladesh has initiated a number of institutional interventions through development plans to better support sustainable adaptation. There have, however, been relatively few assessments of how these interventions have impacted sustainable local adaptation. Focusing on the highly climate-affected north-eastern floodplain region of Bangladesh, this paper presents the results of a literature synthesis supported by primary field data to identify how existing policy barriers can threaten institutional responses to climate change impacts, while institutional rigidity and the non-inclusiveness of bureaucratic polity work to undermine efficiency, effectiveness, and equitability-some important considerations for sustainable adaptation. Our results point toward the need for public policy to better enable broader public participation in the design, implementation, and evaluation of adaptation plans.

RevDate: 2019-03-08

Henry CL, LF Pratson (2019)

Differentiating the Effects of Climate Change-Induced Temperature and Streamflow Changes on the Vulnerability of Once-through Thermoelectric Power Plants.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Thermoelectric power plants with once-through cooling systems generated 35% (~300 GW) of U.S. electricity in 2016. Factors that reduce once-through cooling capacity and thus power output are environmental regulations, warming surface waters, and drought. The latter two may become more frequent as global climate changes. Previous research indicates that reduction in power plant capacity caused by environmental regulations can be significant, while that by surface water warming minor. Here, we address the effect of droughts on power output, which until now has remained conflated with temperature impacts. We do this using a widely-used electricity generation model alongside hourly operational and meteorological data for 52 once-through plants located across the U.S. The effect of drought on plant output is examined for different water-availability and temperature scenarios, with and without regulations on plant water discharge. We find that if surface waters warm 3 °C and river discharges drop 20%, droughts would account for ≤20% of total capacity reduction depending on the plant, warming surface waters ≤2.3%, and environmental regulations up to 80%. This suggests that maintaining environmental regulations will require the continued conversion of plant cooling systems from once-through to recirculating, and mitigating climate impacts will require more stringent drought-specific watershed management.

RevDate: 2019-03-08

Walsh ES, Vierling KT, Strand E, et al (2019)

Climate change, woodpeckers, and forests: Current trends and future modeling needs.

Ecology and evolution, 9(4):2305-2319 pii:ECE34876.

The structure and composition of forest ecosystems are expected to shift with climate-induced changes in precipitation, temperature, fire, carbon mitigation strategies, and biological disturbance. These factors are likely to have biodiversity implications. However, climate-driven forest ecosystem models used to predict changes to forest structure and composition are not coupled to models used to predict changes to biodiversity. We proposed integrating woodpecker response (biodiversity indicator) with forest ecosystem models. Woodpeckers are a good indicator species of forest ecosystem dynamics, because they are ecologically constrained by landscape-scale forest components, such as composition, structure, disturbance regimes, and management activities. In addition, they are correlated with forest avifauna community diversity. In this study, we explore integrating woodpecker and forest ecosystem climate models. We review climate-woodpecker models and compare the predicted responses to observed climate-induced changes. We identify inconsistencies between observed and predicted responses, explore the modeling causes, and identify the models pertinent to integration that address the inconsistencies. We found that predictions in the short term are not in agreement with observed trends for 7 of 15 evaluated species. Because niche constraints associated with woodpeckers are a result of complex interactions between climate, vegetation, and disturbance, we hypothesize that the lack of adequate representation of these processes in the current broad-scale climate-woodpecker models results in model-data mismatch. As a first step toward improvement, we suggest a conceptual model of climate-woodpecker-forest modeling for integration. The integration model provides climate-driven forest ecosystem modeling with a measure of biodiversity while retaining the feedback between climate and vegetation in woodpecker climate change modeling.

RevDate: 2019-03-08

Yi F, Wang Z, Baskin CC, et al (2019)

Seed germination responses to seasonal temperature and drought stress are species-specific but not related to seed size in a desert steppe: Implications for effect of climate change on community structure.

Ecology and evolution, 9(4):2149-2159 pii:ECE34909.

Investigating how seed germination of multiple species in an ecosystem responds to environmental conditions is crucial for understanding the mechanisms for community structure and biodiversity maintenance. However, knowledge of seed germination response of species to environmental conditions is still scarce at the community level. We hypothesized that responses of seed germination to environmental conditions differ among species at the community level, and that germination response is not correlated with seed size. To test this hypothesis, we determined the response of seed germination of 20 common species in the Siziwang Desert Steppe, China, to seasonal temperature regimes (representing April, May, June, and July) and drought stress (0, -0.003, -0.027, -0.155, and -0.87 MPa). Seed germination percentage increased with increasing temperature regime, but Allium ramosum, Allium tenuissimum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia mongolica,Artemisia scoparia, Artemisia sieversiana, Bassia dasyphylla, Kochia prastrata, and Neopallasia pectinata germinated to >60% in the lowest temperature regime (April). Germination decreased with increasing water stress, but Allium ramosum, Artemisia annua, Artemisia scoparia, Bassia dasyphylla, Heteropappus altaicus, Kochia prastrata, Neopallasia pectinata, and Potentilla tanacetifolia germinated to near 60% at -0.87 MPa. Among these eight species, germination of six was tolerant to both temperature and water stress. Mean germination percentage in the four temperature regimes and the five water potentials was not significantly correlated with seed mass or seed area, which were highly correlated. Our results suggest that the species-specific germination responses to environmental conditions are important in structuring the desert steppe community and have implications for predicting community structure under climate change. Thus, the predicted warmer and dryer climate will favor germination of drought-tolerant species, resulting in altered proportions of germinants of different species and subsequently change in community composition of the desert steppe.

RevDate: 2019-03-08

Zhang Y, Clauzel C, Li J, et al (2019)

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China.

Ecology and evolution, 9(4):1680-1690 pii:ECE34815.

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species' habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least-cost model for the current period (1960-1990) and the 2050s (2041-2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least-cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high-priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.

RevDate: 2019-03-08

Liles MJ, Peterson TR, Seminoff JA, et al (2019)

Potential limitations of behavioral plasticity and the role of egg relocation in climate change mitigation for a thermally sensitive endangered species.

Ecology and evolution, 9(4):1603-1622 pii:ECE34774.

Anthropogenic climate change is widely considered a major threat to global biodiversity, such that the ability of a species to adapt will determine its likelihood of survival. Egg-burying reptiles that exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, such as critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), are particularly vulnerable to changes in thermal regimes because nest temperatures affect offspring sex, fitness, and survival. It is unclear whether hawksbills possess sufficient behavioral plasticity of nesting traits (i.e., redistribution of nesting range, shift in nesting phenology, changes in nest-site selection, and adjustment of nest depth) to persist within their climatic niche or whether accelerated changes in thermal conditions of nesting beaches will outpace phenotypic adaption and require human intervention. For these reasons, we estimated sex ratios and physical condition of hatchling hawksbills under natural and manipulated conditions and generated and analyzed thermal profiles of hawksbill nest environments within highly threatened mangrove ecosystems at Bahía de Jiquilisco, El Salvador, and Estero Padre Ramos, Nicaragua. Hawksbill clutches protected in situ at both sites incubated at higher temperatures, yielded lower hatching success, produced a higher percentage of female hatchlings, and produced less fit offspring than clutches relocated to hatcheries. We detected cooler sand temperatures in woody vegetation (i.e., coastal forest and small-scale plantations of fruit trees) and hatcheries than in other monitored nest environments, with higher temperatures at the deeper depth. Our findings indicate that mangrove ecosystems present a number of biophysical (e.g., insular nesting beaches and shallow water table) and human-induced (e.g., physical barriers and deforestation) constraints that, when coupled with the unique life history of hawksbills in this region, may limit behavioral compensatory responses by the species to projected temperature increases at nesting beaches. We contend that egg relocation can contribute significantly to recovery efforts in a changing climate under appropriate circumstances.

RevDate: 2019-03-08

Haszpra T, M Herein (2019)

Ensemble-based analysis of the pollutant spreading intensity induced by climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):3896 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-40451-7.

The intensity of the atmospheric large-scale spreading can be characterized by a measure of chaotic systems, called topological entropy. A pollutant cloud stretches in an exponential manner in time, and in the atmospheric context the topological entropy corresponds to the stretching rate of its length. To explore the plethora of possible climate evolutions, we investigate here pollutant spreading in climate realizations of two climate models to learn what the typical spreading behavior is over a climate change. An overall decrease in the areal mean of the stretching rate is found to be typical in the ensembles of both climate models. This results in larger pollutant concentrations for several geographical regions implying higher environmental risk. A strong correlation is found between the time series of the ensemble mean values of the stretching rate and of the absolute value of the relative vorticity. Here we show that, based on the obtained relationship, the typical intensity of the spreading in an arbitrary climate realization can be estimated by using only the ensemble means of the relative vorticity data of a climate model.

RevDate: 2019-03-07

Saracci R (2019)

[Reflections on time. From the clinic to climate change.].

Recenti progressi in medicina, 110(2):61-62.

The often heard 'time is money' formula is today generally applied to all human activities: it implies that a gain in time is a gain in money, with the consequence of introducing a generalized pressure to minimize the execution time of all and every human operation. There are however processes that are just destroyed when their execution speed becomes faster and faster: any music piece, whose time structure is essential, is a prototype of these phenomena. Two apparently remote phenomena as the doctor-patient interaction and the control of global climatic change belong for different reasons to the same category of phenomena the priority of which cannot be derived using the 'time is money' formula but requires - before any accounting calculation - considering their intrinsic value for health and medicine.

RevDate: 2019-03-07

Wiens JJ, Camacho A, Goldberg A, et al (2019)

Climate-change, extinction, and Sky Island biogeography in a montane lizard.

Molecular ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Around the world, many species are confined to "Sky Islands," with different populations in isolated patches of montane habitat. How does this pattern arise? One scenario is that montane species were widespread in lowlands when climates were cooler, and were isolated by local extinction caused by warming conditions. This scenario implies that many montane species may be highly susceptible to anthropogenic warming. Here, we test this scenario in a montane lizard (Sceloporus jarrovii) from the Madrean Sky Islands of southeastern Arizona. We combined data from field surveys, climate, population genomics, and physiology. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that this species' current distribution is explained by local extinction caused by past climate change. However, our results for this species differ from simple expectations in several ways: (1) their absence at lower elevations is related to warm winter temperatures, not hot summer temperatures; (2) they appear to exclude a low-elevation congener from higher elevations, not the converse; (3) they are apparently absent from many climatically suitable but low mountain ranges, seemingly "pushed off the top" by climates even warmer than those today; (4) despite the potential for dispersal among ranges during recent glacial periods (~18,000 years ago), populations in different ranges diverged ~4.5-0.5 million years ago and remained largely distinct; and (5) body temperatures are inversely related to climatic temperatures among sites. These results may have implications for many other Sky Island systems. More broadly, we suggest that Sky Island species may be relevant for predicting responses to future warming. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-03-07

Davis BE, Cocherell DE, Sommer T, et al (2019)

Sensitivities of an endemic, endangered California smelt and two non-native fishes to serial increases in temperature and salinity: implications for shifting community structure with climate change.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coy076 pii:coy076.

In many aquatic systems, native fishes are in decline and the factors responsible are often elusive. In the San Francisco Estuary (SFE) in California, interactions among native and non-native species are key factors contributing to the decline in abundance of endemic, endangered Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus). Climate change and drought-related stressors are further exacerbating declines. To assess how multiple environmental changes affect the physiology of native Delta Smelt and non-native Mississippi Silverside (Menidia beryllina) and Largemouth Bass (Micropterus salmoides), fishes were exposed to serial exposures of a single stressor (elevated temperature or salinity) followed by two stressors (elevated temperature and salinity) to determine how a single stressor affects the capacity to cope with the addition of a second stressor. Critical thermal maximum (CTMax; a measure of upper temperature tolerance) was determined after 0, 2, 4 and 7 days following single and multiple stressors of elevated temperature (16°C vs. 20°C) and salinity (2.4 vs. 8-12 ppt, depending on species). Under control conditions, non-native fishes had significantly higher CTMax than the native Delta Smelt. An initial temperature or salinity stressor did not negatively affect the ability of any species to tolerate a subsequent multiple stressor. While elevated salinity had little effect on CTMax, a 4°C increase in temperature increased CTMax. Bass experienced an additive effect of increased temperature and salinity on CTMax, such that CTMax further increased under multiple stressors. In addition, Bass demonstrated physiological sensitivity to multiple stressors demonstrated by changes in hematocrit and plasma osmolality, whereas the physiology of Silversides remained unaffected. Non-native Bass and Mississippi Silversides showed consistently higher thermal tolerance limits than the native Delta Smelt, supporting their abundance in warmer SFE habitats. Continued increases in SFE water temperatures predicted with climate change may further impact endangered Delta Smelt populations directly if habitat temperatures exceed thermal limits.

RevDate: 2019-03-07

Kubicek A, Breckling B, Hoegh-Guldberg O, et al (2019)

Climate change drives trait-shifts in coral reef communities.

Scientific reports, 9(1):3721 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-38962-4.

Climate change is expected to have profound, partly unforeseeable effects on the composition of functional traits of complex ecosystems, such as coral reefs, and some ecosystem properties are at risk of disappearing. This study applies a novel spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore three critical life history traits of corals: heat tolerance, competitiveness and growth performance under various environmental settings. Building upon these findings, we test the adaptation potential required by a coral community in order to not only survive but also retain its diversity by the end of this century under different IPCC climate scenarios. Even under the most favourable IPCC scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 2.6), model results indicate that shifts in the trait space are likely and coral communities will mainly consist of small numbers of temperature-tolerant and fast-growing species. Species composition of coral communities is likely to be determined by heat tolerance, with competitiveness most likely playing a subordinate role. To sustain ~15% of current coral cover under a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century (RCP 4.5), coral systems would have to accommodate temperature increases of 0.1-0.15 °C per decade, assuming that periodic extreme thermal events occurred every 8 years. These required adaptation rates are unprecedented and unlikely, given corals' life-history characteristics.

RevDate: 2019-03-07

Beetge L, K Krüger (2019)

Drought and heat waves associated with climate change affect performance of the potato aphid Macrosiphum euphorbiae.

Scientific reports, 9(1):3645 pii:10.1038/s41598-018-37493-8.

The combined effect of drought and heat waves on insect-plant interactions is complex and not fully understood. Insects may indirectly benefit from water-deficit stress through increased plant nitrogen levels. Heat stress may have a direct negative effect, yet insect performance may be improved when day-time heat is followed by cooler night temperatures. We show that moderate water-deficit stress (25-30% pot capacity) and high day-night temperatures (30/20 °C) affected Macrosiphum euphorbiae on potato (Solanum tuberosum) differently than their interactions. Water stress lowered stomatal conductance, and both water and heat stress reduced leaf area. The effect of water stress on nymphal and adult survival depended on temperature. Water stress added to reduced nymphal survival at high but not current (25/15 °C) day-night temperatures. Adult survival at high temperatures was reduced only when combined with water stress. Water stress and high temperatures independently but not interactively reduced the number of daily offspring. Moderate water stress when combined with high temperatures had a negative bottom-up effect on aphid survival even though lower night temperatures aided in the recovery from direct heat stress. Our study illustrates the importance of combining multiple stressors to better understand their impact on insect-plant interactions in the context of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-03-06

Anonymous (2019)

Environmental effects and interactions of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change: 2018 assessment.

RevDate: 2019-03-06

Hamilton CD, Vacquié-Garcia J, Kovacs KM, et al (2019)

Contrasting changes in space use induced by climate change in two Arctic marine mammal species.

Biology letters, 15(3):20180834.

Global warming is inducing major environmental changes in the Arctic. These changes will differentially affect species owing to differences in climate sensitivity and behavioural plasticity. Arctic endemic marine mammals are expected to be impacted significantly by ongoing changes in their key habitats owing to their long life cycles and dependence on ice. Herein, unique biotelemetry datasets for ringed seals (RS; Pusa hispida) and white whales (WW; Delphinapterus leucas) from Svalbard, Norway, spanning two decades (1995-2016) are used to investigate how these species have responded to reduced sea-ice cover and increased Atlantic water influxes. Tidal glacier fronts were traditionally important foraging areas for both species. Following a period with dramatic environmental change, RS now spend significantly more time near tidal glaciers, where Arctic prey presumably still concentrate. Conversely, WW spend significantly less time near tidal glacier fronts and display spatial patterns that suggest that they are foraging on Atlantic fishes that are new to the region. Differences in levels of dietary specialization and overall behavioural plasticity are likely reasons for similar environmental pressures affecting these species differently. Climate change adjustments through behavioural plasticity will be vital for species survival in the Arctic, given the rapidity of change and limited dispersal options.

RevDate: 2019-03-05

Heaney AK, Carrión D, Burkart K, et al (2019)

Climate Change and Physical Activity: Estimated Impacts of Ambient Temperatures on Bikeshare Usage in New York City.

Environmental health perspectives, 127(3):37002.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity is one of the best disease prevention strategies, and it is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to illuminate the relation between ambient temperature and bikeshare usage and to project how climate change-induced increasing ambient temperatures may influence active transportation in New York City.

METHODS: The analysis leverages Citi Bike® bikeshare data to estimate participation in outdoor bicycling in New York City. Exposure-response functions are estimated for the relation between daily temperature and bike usage from 2013 to 2017. The estimated exposure-response relation is combined with temperature outputs from 21 climate models (run with emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to explore how climate change may influence future bike utilization.

RESULTS: Estimated daily hours and distance ridden significantly increased as temperatures increased, but then declined at temperatures above 26-28°C. Bike usage may increase by up to 3.1% by 2070 due to climate change. Future ridership increases during the winter, spring, and fall may more than offset future declines in summer ridership.

DISCUSSION: Evidence suggesting nonlinear impacts of rising temperatures on health-promoting bicycle ridership demonstrates how challenging it is to anticipate the health consequences of climate change. We project increases in bicycling by mid-century in NYC, but this trend may reverse as temperatures continue to rise further into the future.

RevDate: 2019-03-05

Whipple AV, Cobb NS, Gehring CA, et al (2019)

Long-Term Studies Reveal Differential Responses to Climate Change for Trees Under Soil- or Herbivore-Related Stress.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:132.

Worldwide, trees are confronting increased temperature and aridity, exacerbating susceptibility to herbivory. Long-term studies comparing patterns of plant performance through drought can help identify variation among and within populations in vulnerability to climate change and herbivory. We use long-term monitoring data to examine our overarching hypothesis that the negative impacts of poor soil and herbivore susceptibility would be compounded by severe drought. We studied pinyon pine, Pinus edulis, a widespread southwestern tree species that has suffered extensive climate-change related mortality. We analyzed data on mortality, growth, male reproduction, and herbivory collected for 14-32 years in three areas with distinct soil-types. We used standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a climate proxy that summarizes the impacts of drought due to precipitation and temperature variation on semi-arid forests. Several key findings emerged: (1) Plant performance measurements did not support our hypothesis that trees growing in stressful, coarse-textured soils would suffer more than trees growing in finer-textured soils. Stem growth at the area with coarse, young cinder soils (area one) responded only weakly to drought, while stem growth on more developed soils with sedimentary (area two) and volcanic (area three) substrates, was strongly negatively affected by drought. Male reproduction declined less with drought at area one and more at areas two and three. Overall mortality was 30% on coarse cinder soils (area one) and averaged 55% on finer soil types (areas two and three). (2) Although moth herbivore susceptible trees were hypothesized to suffer more with drought than moth resistant trees, the opposite occurred. Annual stem growth was negatively affected by drought for moth resistant trees, but much less strongly for moth susceptible trees. (3) In contrast to our hypothesis, moths declined with drought. Overall, chronically water-stressed and herbivore-susceptible trees had smaller declines in performance relative to less-stressed trees during drought years. These long-term findings support the idea that stressed trees might be more resistant to drought since they may have adapted or acclimated to resist drought-related mortality.

RevDate: 2019-03-05

Lunt PH, Fyfe RM, AD Tappin (2019)

Role of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems.

The Science of the total environment, 667:348-358 pii:S0048-9697(19)30737-5 [Epub ahead of print].

This paper provides information on the impact of recent climate change on carbon sequestration in peatland systems in South West England. This is important because peatlands have the potential to sequester and hold large quantities of anthropogenically released CO2. This paper investigates whether there has been a reduction in the strength of carbon sinks in a valley mire and blanket bog, which occur on the limits of the biogeographical envelop for peatlands in Britain. Past rates of carbon accumulation were calculated from peat depth and the sequential analysis of peat age, bulk density and carbon content from cores taken from valley mire and blanket bog. At the valley mire site contemporary net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was calculated by measuring inputs to the peat body, via net primary productivity (NPP), of Sphagna. Losses of C from the peat body were calculated by measuring CH4, and aquatic carbon, calculated from catchment export of particulate and dissolved organic carbon. The study found similar mean rates of carbon accumulation since 1850 of 11.26 t ± 0.68 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (307 g C m-2 yr-1) in valley mire and 11.77 t ± 0.88 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (321 g C m-2 yr-1) in blanket bog. The mean present-day CO2 sequestration rate for Sphagna on valley mire was calculated to be 9.13 t ± 0.98 t CO2e ha-1 yr-1 (249 g C m-2 yr-1). Both past and contemporary rates of CO2 sequestration were found to be at the maxima of those reported for temperate peatlands. NPP was found to vary according to microform with higher rates of carbon sequestration found in lawn and hummock microforms compared with pools. Our work suggests that recent changes in the climate appear to have had limited impact on the strength of peatland carbon sinks in South West England.

RevDate: 2019-03-04

Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Sera F, A Gasparrini (2019)

A hands-on tutorial on a modeling framework for projections of climate change impacts on health.

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) [Epub ahead of print].

Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task, due to the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multi-disciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial License 4.0 (CCBY-NC), where it is permissible to download, share, remix, transform, and buildup the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be used commercially without permission from the journal.

RevDate: 2019-03-03

Poole JA, Barnes CS, Demain JG, et al (2019)

Impact of weather and climate change with indoor and outdoor air quality in asthma.

The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology pii:S0091-6749(19)30281-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Weather and climate change are constant and ever-changing processes that impact allergy and asthma. The purpose of this report is to provide information since the last climate change review with focus on asthmatic disease. PubMed and internet searches for topics included climate and weather change, air pollution, particulate, greenhouse gasses, traffic, insect habitat, and mitigation, in addition to references contributed by the individual authors. Changes in patterns of outdoor aeroallergens due to increasing temperatures and amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are major factors linked to increased duration of pollen seasons, pollen production, and possibly increased allergenicity of pollen. Indoor air pollution threats anticipated from climate changes include microbial and mold growth secondary to flooding resulting in displacement of persons and need for respiratory protection of exposed workers. Air pollution from indoor burning of mosquito repellants is a potential anticipatory result of an increase in habitat regions. Air pollution from fossil fuel burning and traffic-related emissions can alter respiratory defense mechanisms and work synergistically with specific allergens to enhance immunogenicity to worsen asthma in susceptible individuals. Community efforts can significantly reduce air pollution, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emission and improving air quality. The allergist's approach to weather pattern changes should be integrated and anticipatory to protect at-risk patients.

RevDate: 2019-03-02

Moraitis ML, Valavanis VD, I Karakassis (2019)

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic indicator species in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

The Science of the total environment, 667:16-24 pii:S0048-9697(19)30846-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution of benthic species commonly used in marine ecological quality assessment were investigated using a spatial modelling approach. In this work, the relevance of the ecological groups that macrofaunal molluscs are assigned according to their sensitivity or tolerance to environmental disturbance was examined under the scope of the RCP 8.5 severe emissions scenario. The effects of climate change were more profound on species that are indicative of a specific suite of climatic conditions regarding temperature and salinity. Significant loss of habitat suitability was observed for the tolerant species Corbula gibba and Abra prismatica whereas the sensitive species Moerella donacina was least affected. In contrast, an overall expansion of the distributional potential was observed for the sensitive species Flexopecten hyalinus as newly suitable habitats are formed. As hypothesised, the current ecological grouping that depicts the sensitivity of a benthic species to an environmental stressor is irrelevant when assessing the effects of climate change. We propose a new standpoint of using benthic species as biotic tools based on their ecological niche requirements.

RevDate: 2019-03-02

Coates SJ, McCalmont TH, ML Williams (2019)

Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change in the Practice of Dermatology-A Call to Action.

JAMA dermatology pii:2727231 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-03-02

Wang C, Wang Z, Kong Y, et al (2019)

Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):3295 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-39942-4.

Degradation of cryospheric components such as arctic sea ice and permafrost may pose a threat to the Earth's climate system. A rise of 2 °C above pre-industrial global surface temperature is considered to be a risk-level threshold. This study investigates the impacts of global temperature rises of 1.5 °C and 2 °C on the extent of the permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), based on the 17 models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that, when global surface temperature rises by 1.5 °C, the average permafrost extent projected under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios would decrease by 23.58% for RCP2.6 (2027-2036), 24.1% for RCP4.5 (2026-2035) and 25.55% for RCP8.5 (2023-2032). However, uncertainty in the results persists because of distinct discrepancies among the models. When the global surface temperature rises by 2 °C, about one-third of the permafrost would disappear; in other words, most of the NH permafrost would still remain even in the RCP8.5 (2037-2046) scenario. The results of the study highlight that the NH permafrost might be able to stably exist owing to its relatively slow degradation. This outlook gives reason for hope for future maintenance and balance of the cryosphere and climate systems.

RevDate: 2019-03-02

Kais SM, MS Islam (2019)

Perception of Climate Change in Shrimp-Farming Communities in Bangladesh: A Critical Assessment.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(4): pii:ijerph16040672.

Local contexts as well as levels of exposure play a substantial role in defining a community's perception of climate and environmental vulnerabilities. In order to assess a community's adaptation strategies, understanding of how different groups in that community comprehend climate change is crucial. Public risk perception is important as it can induce or confine political, economic, and social actions dealing with particular hazards. Climate change adaptation is a well-established policy discourse in Bangladesh that has made its people more or less aware of it. Similarly, shrimp-farming communities in southwestern Bangladesh understand environmental and climate change in their own ways. In order to understand how the shrimp-farming communities in coastal Bangladesh perceive current climate instabilities, we conducted a qualitative study in shrimp-farming villages in coastal Bangladesh where about 80% of commercial shrimp of the country is cultivated. We compared farmers' perceptions of local climate change with existing scientific knowledge and found remarkable similarities. Our assessment shows that at least two factors are critical for this outcome: coastal people's exposure to and experience of frequent climate extremes; and a radical approach to defining climate regimes in Bangladesh by various stakeholders and the media, depicting anthropogenic global warming as a certainty for the country. Thus, a convergence of scientific construct and sociocultural construct construes the level of awareness of the general public about climate change.

RevDate: 2019-03-01

Ren J, Wang XP, Gong P, et al (2019)

Characterization of Tibetan soil as a source or sink of atmospheric persistent organic pollutants: Seasonal shift and impact of global warming.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Background soils are reservoirs of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). After decades of reduced primary emissions, it is now possible that the POPs contained in these reservoirs are being remobilized because of climate warming. However, a comprehensive investigation into the remobilization of POPs from background soil on the largest and highest plateau on Earth, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), is lacking. In this study, a sampling campaign was carried out on the TP at three background sites with different land cover types (forest, meadow and desert). Field measurements of the air-soil exchange of POPs showed that previous prediction using empirical models overestimated the values of the soil-air partitioning coefficient (KSA), especially for chemicals with KOA > 9. The direction of exchange for γ-HCH, HCB and PCB-28 overlapped with the air-soil equilibrium range, but with a tendency for volatilization. Their emission fluxes were 720, 2935 and 538 pg m-2 day-1, respectively, and were similar in extent to those observed for background Arctic soil in Norway. Nam Co and Ngari are also permafrost regions, and most chemicals at these two sites exhibited volatilization. This is the first result showing that permafrost can also emit POPs. Seasonally, we found that chemicals tended to be re-emitted from soils to the atmosphere in winter and deposited from the air to the soil in summer. This finding is opposite to most previous results, possibly because of the higher air-soil concentration gradient caused by the prevailing transport of POPs in summer. Climate warming exerts a strong influence on air-soil exchange, with an increase of 1°C in ambient temperature likely leading to an increase of Tibetan atmospheric inventories of POPs by 60%-400%.

RevDate: 2019-03-01

Rosa WE, Schenk E, Travers JL, et al (2019)

Climate change and health consequences: Engaging public health nursing within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Public health nursing (Boston, Mass.), 36(2):107-108.

RevDate: 2019-03-01

Plagányi É (2019)

Climate change impacts on fisheries.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 363(6430):930-931.

RevDate: 2019-02-28

Brivio F, Zurmühl M, Grignolio S, et al (2019)

Forecasting the response to global warming in a heat-sensitive species.

Scientific reports, 9(1):3048 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-39450-5.

Avoiding hyperthermia entails considerable metabolic costs for endotherms. Such costs increase in warm conditions, when endotherms may trade food intake for cooler areas to avoid heat stress and maximize their energy balance. The need to reduce heat stress may involve the adoption of tactics affecting space use and foraging behaviour, which are important to understand and predict the effects of climate change and inform conservation. We used resource selection models to examine the behavioural response to heat stress in the Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a cold-adapted endotherm particularly prone to overheating. Ibex avoided heat stress by selecting the space based on the maximum daily temperature rather than moving hourly to 'surf the heat wave', which minimised movement costs but prevented optimal foraging. By integrating these findings with new climate forecasts, we predict that rising temperatures will force mountain ungulates to move upward and overcrowd thermal refugia with reduced carrying capacity. Our approach helps in identifying priority areas for the conservation of mountain species.

RevDate: 2019-02-28

Mironova V, Shartova N, Beljaev A, et al (2019)

Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(5): pii:ijerph16050694.

The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.

RevDate: 2019-02-28

Nie T, Zhang Z, Qi Z, et al (2019)

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CH₄ Fluxes from Rice Paddies of Cold Region in Heilongjiang Province under Climate Change.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(5): pii:ijerph16050692.

Paddy fields have become a major global anthropogenic CH₄ emission source, and climate change affects CH₄ emissions from paddy ecosystems by changing crop growth and the soil environment. It has been recognized that Heilongjiang Province has become an important source of CH₄ emission due to its dramatically increased rice planting area, while less attention has been paid to characterize the effects of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of CH₄ fluxes. In this study, we used the calibrated and validated Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model and DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to simulate historical and future CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of four global climate models (GCMs) in Heilongjiang Province. During 1960⁻2015, the average CH₄ fluxes and climatic tendencies were 145.56 kg C/ha and 11.88 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively. Spatially, the CH₄ fluxes showed a decreasing trend from west to east, and the climatic tendencies in the northern and western parts were higher. During 2021⁻2080, the annual average CH₄ fluxes under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to be 213.46 kg C/ha and 252.19 kg C/ha, respectively, and their spatial distributions were similar to the historical distribution. The average climatic tendencies were 13.40 kg C/ha/(10a) and 29.86 kg C/ha/(10a), respectively, which decreased from west to east. The simulation scenario analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature affected CH₄ fluxes by changing soil organic carbon (SOC) content and plant biomass. This study indicated that a paddy ecosystem in a cold region is an important part of China's greenhouse gas emission inventory in future scenarios.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Ylönen H, Haapakoski M, Sievert T, et al (2019)

Voles and weasels in the boreal Fennoscandian small mammal community: What happens if the least weasel disappears due to climate change?.

Integrative zoology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats for populations and challenge for individual behavior, interactions, and survival. Predator-prey interactions are modified by climate processes. In the northern latitudes strong seasonality is changing and the main predicted feature is shortening and instability of winter. Vole populations in the boreal Fennoscandia exhibit multiannual cycles. High amplitude peak numbers of voles and dramatic population lows alternate in 3-5 years cycles shortening from North to South. One key factor, or driver, promoting the population crash and causing extreme extended lows, is suggested to be predation by the least weasel. We review the arms race between prey voles and weasels along the multiannual density fluctuation, affected by the climate change, and especially the change in duration and stability of snow cover. Snow provides for ground-dwelling small mammals thermoregulation, shelter for nest sites, and hide from most predators. Predicted increase in instability of winter forms a major challenge for species with coat color change between brown summer camouflage and white winter coat. One of these is the least weasel, Mustela nivalis nivalis. Increased vulnerability of wrong-colored weasels to predation affect vole populations and may have dramatic effects on vole dynamics. It may have cascading effects to other small rodent - predator interactions and even to plant - animal interactions and forest dynamics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Andrady AL, Pandey KK, AM Heikkilä (2019)

Interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on material damage.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology [Epub ahead of print].

Solar UV radiation adversely affects the properties of organic materials used in construction, such as plastics and wood. The outdoor service lifetimes of these materials are influenced by their rates of degradation under solar UV radiation as well as by other climate factors such as temperature, moisture, and atmospheric pollutants. While recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is expected, local increases in UV radiation are still likely to occur, especially in the tropics, but also elsewhere because of climate change effects. Such increases, when taken together with an increased ambient temperature due to climate change, can significantly shorten the service lifetimes of organic building materials. Several proven technologies, including the use of UV stabilisers, surface treatments or coatings have been developed over the years to mitigate these adverse effects. While these technologies should be able to compensate for any realistic future UV radiation and climate change scenarios, they will also add significantly to the lifetime cost of material in relevant products. Shorter outdoor lifetime of the plastic components in photovoltaic (PV) modules is a serious concern in the solar energy industry. To ensure module durability over the full service-lifetime (of about ∼20 years) of the light-harvesting PV components, better stabilisation technologies are being investigated. The present trend towards more environmentally sustainable materials in building, and environmental impact of additives such as stabilisers, need to be considered in addition to their engineering performance. This may require the phasing out of some conventional additives used in plastics as well as substituting wood or other materials in place of plastics in buildings. Depending on the relative costs of mitigation, substituting more UV-stable materials for conventional ones in outdoor products may also be a viable option with some categories of products. Neither the global cost of mitigation of the effects of climate change on materials nor the long-term sustainability of the technologies available for the purpose, have been estimated. Plastic waste and litter exposed outdoors to solar UV radiation over extended periods undergo cracking and fragmentation into small pieces (of micro- and nano-scale size). Release of these fragments into the environment, particularly in the aquatic environment, poses a potential threat to marine biota. Already several hundred of species are known to ingest these fragments that can potentially accumulate additives and pollutants from water. This is a potential threat to humans because 25% of fish marketed for human consumption have been reported to contain microplastics in their digestive systems. The focus of this assessment is on recent advances in understanding the mechanisms of UV-radiation-induced degradation in materials and in assessing emerging technologies for their stabilisation against outdoor UV-degradation. A better understanding of the mechanisms of degradation will allow for innovative stabilisation approaches to be developed. Also assessed is information on the sustainability of the available and emerging UV stabilisation technologies.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Williamson CE, Neale PJ, Hylander S, et al (2019)

The interactive effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology [Epub ahead of print].

This assessment summarises the current state of knowledge on the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on aquatic ecosystems, focusing on how these affect exposures to UV radiation in both inland and oceanic waters. The ways in which stratospheric ozone depletion is directly altering climate in the southern hemisphere and the consequent extensive effects on aquatic ecosystems are also addressed. The primary objective is to synthesise novel findings over the past four years in the context of the existing understanding of ecosystem response to UV radiation and the interactive effects of climate change. If it were not for the Montreal Protocol, stratospheric ozone depletion would have led to high levels of exposure to solar UV radiation with much stronger negative effects on all trophic levels in aquatic ecosystems than currently experienced in both inland and oceanic waters. This "world avoided" scenario that has curtailed ozone depletion, means that climate change and other environmental variables will play the primary role in regulating the exposure of aquatic organisms to solar UV radiation. Reductions in the thickness and duration of snow and ice cover are increasing the levels of exposure of aquatic organisms to UV radiation. Climate change was also expected to increase exposure by causing shallow mixed layers, but new data show deepening in some regions and shoaling in others. In contrast, climate-change related increases in heavy precipitation and melting of glaciers and permafrost are increasing the concentration and colour of UV-absorbing dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulates. This is leading to the "browning" of many inland and coastal waters, with consequent loss of the valuable ecosystem service in which solar UV radiation disinfects surface waters of parasites and pathogens. Many organisms can reduce damage due to exposure to UV radiation through behavioural avoidance, photoprotection, and photoenzymatic repair, but meta-analyses continue to confirm negative effects of UV radiation across all trophic levels. Modeling studies estimating photoinhibition of primary production in parts of the Pacific Ocean have demonstrated that the UV radiation component of sunlight leads to a 20% decrease in estimates of primary productivity. Exposure to UV radiation can also lead to positive effects on some organisms by damaging less UV-tolerant predators, competitors, and pathogens. UV radiation also contributes to the formation of microplastic pollutants and interacts with artificial sunscreens and other pollutants with adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems. Exposure to UV-B radiation can decrease the toxicity of some pollutants such as methyl mercury (due to its role in demethylation) but increase the toxicity of other pollutants such as some pesticides and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Feeding on microplastics by zooplankton can lead to bioaccumulation in fish. Microplastics are found in up to 20% of fish marketed for human consumption, potentially threatening food security. Depletion of stratospheric ozone has altered climate in the southern hemisphere in ways that have increased oceanic productivity and consequently the growth, survival and reproduction of many sea birds and mammals. In contrast, warmer sea surface temperatures related to these climate shifts are also correlated with declines in both kelp beds in Tasmania and corals in Brazil. This assessment demonstrates that knowledge of the interactive effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation, and climate change factors on aquatic ecosystems has advanced considerably over the past four years and confirms the importance of considering synergies between environmental factors.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Bornman JF, Barnes PW, Robson TM, et al (2019)

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems.

Photochemical & photobiological sciences : Official journal of the European Photochemistry Association and the European Society for Photobiology [Epub ahead of print].

Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth's surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation. Since our last assessment, there has been increased understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which plants perceive UV-B radiation, eliciting changes in growth, development and tolerances of abiotic and biotic factors. However, major questions remain on how UV-B radiation is interacting with other climate change factors to modify the production and quality of crops, as well as important ecosystem processes such as plant and animal competition, pest-pathogen interactions, and the decomposition of dead plant matter (litter). In addition, stratospheric ozone depletion is directly contributing to climate change in the southern hemisphere, such that terrestrial ecosystems in this region are being exposed to altered patterns of precipitation, temperature and fire regimes as well as UV-B radiation. These ozone-driven changes in climate have been implicated in both increases and reductions in the growth, survival and reproduction of plants and animals in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. In this assessment, we summarise advances in our knowledge of these and other linkages and effects, and identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the ecological consequences of these environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Meza-Palacios R, Aguilar-Lasserre AA, Morales-Mendoza LF, et al (2019)

Life cycle assessment of cane sugar production: The environmental contribution to human health, climate change, ecosystem quality and resources in México.

Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances & environmental engineering [Epub ahead of print].

The cane sugar industry in Mexico depends heavily on the supply of energy, fossil fuels and material resources for its proper operation. The overuse of these resources plus the technical and technological deficiency causes severe environmental consequences. This scientific work aims to analyze the environmental damage attributable to cane sugar production following the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. System boundaries include sugarcane growing and harvesting, sugarcane transportation, sugar milling and electricity cogeneration from bagasse. The associated emissions were acquired from the SimaPro-Ecoinvent database, the Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB) and the Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon Research Station (ART). The life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) was carried out by SimaPro 8.3.0 software and the characterization method used was IMPACT 2002+. The results show that sugarcane growing and harvesting stage provides the most harmful environmental impacts (52%) followed by electricity cogeneration (25.7%), sugarcane transportation (12.1%) and finally, sugar milling (10.2%). Regarding the environmental contributions at the endpoint categories, the highest percentage of impacts is found in the Human health category (53%), followed by Climate change (21%), Ecosystem quality (16%) and Resources (10%). The LCA in cane sugar production can support the decision-making process to deal with this environmental problem.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Prokosch J, Bernitz Z, Bernitz H, et al (2019)

Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-019-04368-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 [Formula: see text]C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Kim Y, G Newman (2019)

Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston.

Sustainability, 11(4):.

Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Xiang P, Zhang H, Geng L, et al (2019)

Individualist-Collectivist Differences in Climate Change Inaction: The Role of Perceived Intractability.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:187.

The willingness to take action against climate change may be shaped by cultural orientations. The present study investigated individualist-collectivist differences in climate change inaction as well as the mediating role of perceived intractability. In Study 1, a survey of 182 undergraduates showed that greater perceived intractability of climate change was significantly related to a lower frequency of climate-friendly actions in the preceding 6 months. In Study 2, participants who were exposed to information concerning the intractability of climate change (experimental group, n = 98) reported a significantly greater perceived intractability of climate change and lower intention to assume a low-carbon lifestyle than those presented with neutral information (control group, n = 83). Based on Studies 1 and 2, participants with collectivist or individualist orientations were recruited from a pool of Chinese undergraduate students in Study 3. We found that participants with a more individualist orientation (n = 62) are more subject to perceived intractability, and less likely to take climate-friendly action than those with a more collectivist orientation (n = 94), and individualist/collectivist status affects climate change inaction through perceived intractability as mediator. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to the promotion of public engagement with climate change by mitigating perceived intractability.

RevDate: 2019-02-27

Hurteau MD, Liang S, Westerling AL, et al (2019)

Vegetation-fire feedback reduces projected area burned under climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):2838 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-39284-1.

Climate influences vegetation directly and through climate-mediated disturbance processes, such as wildfire. Temperature and area burned are positively associated, conditional on availability of vegetation to burn. Fire is a self-limiting process that is influenced by productivity. Yet, many fire projections assume sufficient vegetation to support fire, with substantial implications for carbon (C) dynamics and emissions. We simulated forest dynamics under projected climate and wildfire for the Sierra Nevada, accounting for climate effects on fuel flammability (static) and climate and prior fire effects on fuel availability and flammability (dynamic). We show that compared to climate effects on flammability alone, accounting for the interaction of prior fires and climate on fuel availability and flammability moderates the projected increase in area burned by 14.3%. This reduces predicted increases in area-weighted median cumulative emissions by 38.3 Tg carbon dioxide (CO2) and 0.6 Tg particulate matter (PM1), or 12.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that after correcting for potential over-estimates of the effects of climate-driven increases in area burned, California is likely to continue facing significant wildfire and air quality challenges with on-going climate change.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
21454 NE 143rd Street
Woodinville, WA 98077

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )