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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 17 Aug 2019 at 01:50 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Rodríguez-González A, Zanin M, E Menasalvas-Ruiz (2019)

Public Health and Epidemiology Informatics: Can Artificial Intelligence Help Future Global Challenges? An Overview of Antimicrobial Resistance and Impact of Climate Change in Disease Epidemiology.

Yearbook of medical informatics, 28(1):224-231.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an oveiview of the current application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the field of public health and epidemiology, with a special focus on antimicrobial resistance and the impact of climate change in disease epidemiology. Both topics are of vital importance and were included in the "Ten threats to global health in 2019" report published by the World Health Organization.

METHODS: We analysed publications that appeared in the last two years, between January 2017 and October 2018. Papers were searched using Google Scholar with the following keywords: public health, epidemiology, machine learning, data analytics, artificial intelligence, disease surveillance, climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and combinations thereof. Selected articles were organised by theme.

RESULTS: In spite of a large interest in AI generated both within and outside the scientific community, and of the many opinions pointing towards the importance of a better use of data in public health, few papers have been published on the selected topics in the last two years. We identify several potential reasons, including the complexity of the integration of heterogeneous data, and the lack of sound and unbiased validation procedures.

CONCLUSIONS: As there is a better comprehension of AI and more funding available, artificial intelligence will become not only the centre of attention in informatics, but more importantly the source of innovative solutions for public health.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Kokkoris IP, Bekri ES, Skuras D, et al (2019)

Integrating MAES implementation into protected area management under climate change: A fine-scale application in Greece.

The Science of the total environment, 695:133530 pii:S0048-9697(19)33449-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Increasing anthropogenic pressures often jeopardize ecosystem integrity and policy-relevant conservation management in protected areas. To harmonize nature conservation with human well-being, EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 suggests Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services (MAES) as the key concept for environmental planning and management in EU Member States. Applying this procedure is challenging due to its data-demanding and multidisciplinary nature, resulting in the ecoystem services (ES) approach being scarcely used in protected areas management. Increased data availability under EU biodiversity-related inventories and monitoring projects, as well as theoretical and empirical research advances developed during the last decade, should be put into practice to guide Member States towards local management frameworks and scenario building under the ongoing changes in the EU socio-economic environment. This study aims at filling this gap by embodying into the MAES operational framework a scenario-based approach and demonstrates this in a challenging case study of a Natura 2000 site, Lake Stymfalia, in Greece. The present management strategy, an ecological-friendly management practice, a water-efficient management practice and a non-environmentally friendly option (e.g. ecosystem destruction) are examined for current and future water demand under current and future climatic scenarios. The proposed methodological framework for ES operationalization is based on the available data (derived by EU Directives and/or modelling), expert judgment and stakeholder involvement. Therefore, this work applies and tests the importance of the MAES approach as a management and coordination platform.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Jiang LH, Gao JQ, JZ Wan (2019)

[Potential habitat and priority protection area of cranes with climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, China].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(7):2457-2469.

To clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains region, and promote the effective protection of these species, we selected key environmental variables such as climate, topography, and vegetation type based on Pearson correlation and Jackknife analysis, and modeled the potential distribution of six crane species in the Great Xing'an Mountains using MaxEnt with the current and the future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We identified the priority protection areas (PPAs) and the target PPAs by zonation and ArcGIS. The results showed that with the current climate condition, the sui-table habitats of these species were mainly distributed in the central and the northwest part of the Great Xing'an Mountains. With RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the suitable habitats of Grus monacha, Grus japonensis, Grus vipio, Grus grus and Anthropoides virgo would decrease, while that of Grus leucogeranus would expand by 5.4%-6.3%. With current and the future climate change scenarios, the PPAs of these species were mainly distributed in the northwest, southeast and west-central parts of the Great Xing'an Mountains. The protect rate could reach about 20.1%-23.8% of the target PPAs conserved by protected areas (PAs). The protection gaps were mainly distributed in the west of Mohe County, the north-central of Ergun, the central and east of Genhe, the northeast of Yakeshi, and the south of Oroqen Autonomous Banner. We proposed to expand PAs to provide a strong guarantee for the effective protection of cranes species.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Qiao JJ, Wang T, Pan L, et al (2019)

[Responses of radial growth to climate change in Pinus massoniana at different altitudes and slopes.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(7):2231-2240.

With dendrochronology method, standard and residual chronologies of Pinus massoniana were established at low altitude (260 m), middle altitude (460 m), high altitude (690 m), sunny slope (270 m), and shady slope (265 m). Relationships between the tree-ring width and the climatic factors were quantified using correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA). The optimal multiple regression models for the radial growth of P. massoniana and the climatic factors were established. We analyzed the change rule of radial growth and its relationship with the climatic factors along with the altitude and slope. The results showed that the radial growth of P. massoniana was significantly affected by precipitation and temperature across the altitude gradient and the slope level, respectively. Among the 120 climatic variables, precipitation in December of last year and the extreme minimum temperature in February of current year had the most significant negative effects on the radial growth at different altitudes and slopes, respectively. This study quantitatively described the impacts of climate change on the radial growth of P. massoniana in the subtropical region, and provided a scientific basis for the planting and management of P. massoniana forest in Jiangle Country under the climate warming background.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Han JS, Zhao HY, Zhu LJ, et al (2019)

[Comparing the responses of radial growth between Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense to climate change in Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China.].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(7):2218-2230.

Quercus mongolica and Phellodendron amurense are two important broad-leaved species in temperate forests of Northeast China. It is critical to explore their responses to climate change for supporting management, protection, and restoration of the broad-leaved forest in Northeast China under the future climate change scenario. Three sampling sites along a longitude gradient, Heilun, Tieli and Yichun, were set up in the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. Dendrochronological methods were used to establish standard chronologies for Q. mongolica and P. amurense. Correlation analyses were conducted between these chronologies and local climatic factors to establish the spatial and temporal variations in growth-climate relationship of Q. mongolica and P. amurense. The results showed that the radial growth of P. amurense was sensitive to temperature, while that of Q. mongolica was limi-ted by both temperature and precipitation. The temperature sensitivities of these two species were different. High spring temperature inhibited the radial growth of Q. mongolica, but promoted that of P. amurense. The limiting effect of high maximum temperature in summer on radial growth of Q. mongolica was significantly higher than that of P. amurense. With the increases of longitude (water availability), the correlation coefficients between radial growth of Q. mongolica and precipitation gradually weakened, while P. amurense didn't change. The physiological characteristics of those tree species was the key factors affecting their growth-climate relationship. With the significant warming since the 1976, the growth trend of P. amurense increased, whilst that of Q. mongolica decreased. Deteriorated drought stress caused by warming and difference in the species' ability to cope with water deficits might be the main reasons for different responses of two species, and for the divergence phenomenon occurring for Q. mongolica. If warming continues or worsens in the future, the growth of Q. mongolica may decline due to the intensified drought stress, while that of P. amurense may be less affected or be slightly enhanced.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Shao JY, DU JH, Li SF, et al (2019)

[Tree seedling distribution, regeneration mechanism and response to climate change in alpine treeline ecotone].

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 30(8):2854-2864.

Tree seedlings are one of the important components in alpine treeline ecotone, whose regeneration is crucial to treeline migration in response to climate change. We analyzed the spatial distribution, regeneration of tree seedlings and their responses to climate change in treeline ecotone in recent decades. The spatial distribution of tree seedlings in treeline ecotone is dominated by diffuse and clustered forms, with different indicative significance for spatial dynamics of treeline. At global scale, the altitude distribution limits of tree seedlings are usually related to the length and average temperature of growing season, along with the species characteristics. However, precipita-tion plays an important role at regional scale. The initial stage of seedling recruitment is restricted by seed source, which determines seed distribution and germination to a great extent. Microenvironment facilitates seedling regeneration by providing shelter for establishment and improving their survival rate. The regeneration process is more relevant to multiple biotic, abiotic factors and their interactions. With global warming, rising temperature in treeline ecotone and more precipitation are more suitable for seedling regeneration of treeline species. The expansion of seedlings to higher elevations could be considered as the portent of timberline upwards migration. Due to species-specific adaption strategy, however, some trees only increase seedling density and timberline location is constant. In the future, it is necessary to take precise dating techniques, such as tree-ring and 14C dating, and conduct long-term in-situ monitoring and indoor simulation experiments. To provide scientific basis for mountain ecosystem restoration and conservation, we should strengthen the studies on spatial patterns and regeneration mechanism of seedlings in treeline ecotone at multiple spatio-temporal scales, the adaptation strategies of tree seedlings in different types of treeline ecotone and treeline dynamics prediction.

RevDate: 2019-08-16

Tillotson MD, Barnett HK, Bhuthimethee M, et al (2019)

Artificial selection on reproductive timing in hatchery salmon drives a phenological shift and potential maladaptation to climate change.

Evolutionary applications, 12(7):1344-1359 pii:EVA12730.

The timing of breeding migration and reproduction links generations and substantially influences individual fitness. In salmonid fishes, such phenological events (seasonal return to freshwater and spawning) vary among populations but are consistent among years, indicating local adaptation in these traits to prevailing environmental conditions. Changing reproductive phenology has been observed in many populations of Atlantic and Pacific salmon and is sometimes attributed to adaptive responses to climate change. The sockeye salmon spawning in the Cedar River near Seattle, Washington, USA, have displayed dramatic changes in spawning timing over the past 50 years, trending later through the early 1990s, and becoming earlier since then. We explored the patterns and drivers of these changes using generalized linear models and mathematical simulations to identify possible environmental correlates of the changes, and test the alternative hypothesis that hatchery propagation caused inadvertent selection on timing. The trend toward later spawning prior to 1993 was partially explained by environmental changes, but the rapid advance in spawning since was not. Instead, since its initiation in 1991, the hatchery has, on average, selected for earlier spawning, and, depending on trait heritability, could have advanced spawning by 1-3 weeks over this period. We estimated heritability of spawning date to be high (h2~0.8; 95% CI: 0.5-1.1), so the upper end of this range is not improbable, though at lower heritabilities a smaller effect would be expected. The lower reproductive success of early spawners and relatively low survival of early emerging juveniles observed in recent years suggest that artificial and natural selection are acting in opposite directions. The fitness costs of early spawning may be exacerbated by future warming; thus, the artificially advanced phenology could reduce the population's productivity. Such artificial selection is known in many salmon hatcheries, so there are broad consequences for the productivity of wild populations comingled with hatchery-produced fish.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Ahmed A, Al-Amin AQ, R Rasiah (2019)

COP negotiations and Malaysian climate change roadmap: a comparative assessment using a dynamic environmental model.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06141-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study critically evaluates two COP proposals on Malaysia that have been under consideration to reduce climate damage. A top-down disaggregation framework deploying an "Empirical Regional Downscaling Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy" is used to evaluate the local government climate roadmap and Malaysia's emissions reduction agendas under COP21 and subsequently COP22 proposals. The findings show that the costs from climate damage over the period 2010-2110 under the Malaysian Optimal Climate Action scenario will amount to MYR5,483 (US$1589) billion. The commensurate climate damage costs under the COP21 and COP22 scenario would be MYR5, 264 (US$1526) billion. Thus, the effective proposal for reducing climate damage in Malaysia over the period 2010-2110 is the COP22 time-adjusted COP21 proposal but there are a number of macroeconomic cost implications for savings and consumption that policy makers must address before acting.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Anwar MA, Zhou R, Sajjad A, et al (2019)

Climate change communication as political agenda and voters' behavior.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06134-6 [Epub ahead of print].

"Climate change communication" is taking the strategic position in the international and national politics around the globe. In the recent decade, different developing nations have started considering "climate change communication" as an integral part of the political campaigns and sustainable development. Specifically, the current document comprised of two sections. In the first section of the study, authors briefly compared the attributes related to "climate change communication" in the mainstream political parties' manifesto for the general election 2018 in Pakistan in a qualitative manner. In the second part, the difference of opinion among voters of mainstream political parties towards "climate change" was examined. In a bird's eye view, the perceived seriousness of "climate change" as a real challenge among voters mapped by the independent factors of "urbanization," "industrialization," "transportation," and "waste management" for sustainable development through the primary quantitative survey of 732 voters in the country. The finding highlights (1) public understanding of "socio-scientific issues," i.e., climate change is easy to communicate, and (2) how political parties are framing and communicating about "climate change" plays a significant role in climate change communication. The study concludes that "climate change communication" holds a critical role in developing regions' future political discourse to shape sustainable development policies.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Cabezas-Cartes F, Fernández JB, Duran F, et al (2019)

Potential benefits from global warming to the thermal biology and locomotor performance of an endangered Patagonian lizard.

PeerJ, 7:e7437 pii:7437.

Global warming can significantly affect many aspects of the biology of animal species, including their thermal physiology and physiological performance. Thermal performance curves provide a heuristic model to evaluate the impacts of temperature on the ecophysiology of ectotherms. When integrated with other thermal biology parameters, they can be used to predict the impacts of climate change on individual fitness and population viability. In this study, we combine holistic measures of thermal physiology and the thermal sensitivity of locomotor performance with environmental temperatures measured at fine scale to estimate the vulnerability to global warming of the endangered Patagonian lizard Phymaturus tenebrosus. Our results indicate that this lizard exhibits its preferred temperatures and maximum locomotor performance at higher temperatures than the mean temperature it currently experiences in its habitat. In addition, it exhibits a low effectiveness of thermoregulation, being a poor thermoregulator. In view of the results obtained, we suggest that the climatic conditions of Patagonia may be advantageous for P. tenebrosus to survive future global warming, since its thermal physiology and locomotor performance may improve under increasing in environmental temperatures in its habitat.

RevDate: 2019-08-15

Borzée A, Andersen D, Groffen J, et al (2019)

Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana.

Scientific reports, 9(1):11838 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-48310-1.

Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and their survival is linked to the maintenance of large enough populations and broad enough distributions during these variations. Most amphibian populations are threatened by numerous ecological and anthropogenic variables acting in synergy with climate change. Accumulating basic ecological data such as range enables the development of population and range dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana is the only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring in a very restricted area only. Based on presence data, we created an ecological model using six bioclimatic factors with low multicollinearity to define the adequate habitat of the species, and we modelled the predicted suitability of the Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting climate change scenarios based on CO2 concentrations in 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution produced a landscape suitability considerably wider than the current known distribution. The projected ranges for each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases and shifts in areas with suitable landscapes due to climate change. The lowest RCP prediction resulted in an increase in suitable area, although potentially without connectivity with current populations, while the highest RCP predictions resulted in a decrease. Our results highlight the potential negative impact of climate change, thus requiring updates in conservation plans for K. koreana. The methods used here can be replicated with any land-dwelling species, and our results reflect expected range shifts for most amphibians of the northern hemisphere.

RevDate: 2019-08-14

Korell L, Auge H, Jonathan MC, et al (2019)

We need more realistic climate change experiments for understanding ecosystems of the future.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Experiments that alter local climate and measure community- and ecosystem-level responses are an important tool for understanding how future ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here, we synthesized data from 76 studies that manipulated climate and measured plant community responses, and find that most climate change experiments do not correspond to model-projected climate scenarios for their respective regions. This mismatch constrains our ability to predict responses of plant biodiversity and ecosystem functions to climate change, and we conclude with suggestions for a way forward. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-08-14

Hao X, Ma H, Hua D, et al (2019)

Response of ecosystem water use efficiency to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(9):561 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7673-z.

Ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) is a popular issue in the comprehensive study of climate change, ecology, and hydrology. Currently, views on the response of EWUE to temperature, precipitation, and drought remain controversial. Based on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) datasets, both of which were retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) using the Carnegie Ames Stanford approach (CASA) and surface energy balance algorithms for land (SEBAL) models, respectively, this study comprehensively examined the relationship between EWUE and temperature, precipitation, and drought in the Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia. The results showed that EWUE had an obvious temporal change trend in the Tianshan Mountains. The EWUEs of all vegetation types presented an increasing trend in spring and a decreasing trend in autumn. These results led to a phase shift in the annual cycle of EWUE over the years. Compared with 2000 to 2003, from 2012 to 2016, the annual EWUE cycle had advanced by 32 days. Precipitation generally had a negative effect on EWUE, while temperature had an obvious positive effect on EWUE. The EWUE responses to drought for the different vegetation types showed a variety of change trends. With the increase in drought stress, EWUE not only showed a simple upward or downward trend but also showed an upward trend followed by a downward trend or a downward trend followed by an upward trend. EWUE is more sensitive to changing environments than NPP or ET and is more suitable for analyzing ecosystem responses to global change.

RevDate: 2019-08-14

Schiermeier Q (2019)

Eat less meat: UN climate-change report calls for change to human diet.

Nature, 572(7769):291-292.

RevDate: 2019-08-14

Petersen AM, Vincent EM, AL Westerling (2019)

Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians.

Nature communications, 10(1):3502 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-09959-4.

We juxtapose 386 prominent contrarians with 386 expert scientists by tracking their digital footprints across ∼200,000 research publications and ∼100,000 English-language digital and print media articles on climate change. Projecting these individuals across the same backdrop facilitates quantifying disparities in media visibility and scientific authority, and identifying organization patterns within their association networks. Here we show via direct comparison that contrarians are featured in 49% more media articles than scientists. Yet when comparing visibility in mainstream media sources only, we observe just a 1% excess visibility, which objectively demonstrates the crowding out of professional mainstream sources by the proliferation of new media sources, many of which contribute to the production and consumption of climate change disinformation at scale. These results demonstrate why climate scientists should increasingly exert their authority in scientific and public discourse, and why professional journalists and editors should adjust the disproportionate attention given to contrarians.

RevDate: 2019-08-13

Vaught J (2019)

Climate Change, Biodiversity, and Biopreservation.

Biopreservation and biobanking, 17(4):273.

RevDate: 2019-08-13

Hong C, Zhang Q, Zhang Y, et al (2019)

Impacts of climate change on future air quality and human health in China.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1812881116 [Epub ahead of print].

In recent years, air pollution has caused more than 1 million deaths per year in China, making it a major focus of public health efforts. However, future climate change may exacerbate such human health impacts by increasing the frequency and duration of weather conditions that enhance air pollution exposure. Here, we use a combination of climate, air quality, and epidemiological models to assess future air pollution deaths in a changing climate under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). We find that, assuming pollution emissions and population are held constant at current levels, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for >85% of China's population (∼55% of land area) by the middle of the century, and would increase by 3% and 4% the population-weighted average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, respectively. As a result, we estimate an additional 12,100 and 8,900 Chinese (95% confidence interval: 10,300 to 13,800 and 2,300 to 14,700, respectively) will die per year from PM2.5 and ozone exposure, respectively. The important underlying climate mechanisms are changes in extreme conditions such as atmospheric stagnation and heat waves (contributing 39% and 6%, respectively, to the increase in mortality). Additionally, greater vulnerability of China's aging population will further increase the estimated deaths from PM2.5 and ozone in 2050 by factors of 1 and 3, respectively. Our results indicate that climate change and more intense extremes are likely to increase the risk of severe pollution events in China. Managing air quality in China in a changing climate will thus become more challenging.

RevDate: 2019-08-12

Harcourt R, Bruine de Bruin W, Dessai S, et al (2019)

Investing in a good pair of wellies: how do non-experts interpret the expert terminology of climate change impacts and adaptation?.

Climatic change, 155(2):257-272.

The UK is already experiencing the impacts of climate change and these are expected to increase in scale and severity in the coming decades. Preparing for impacts by undertaking adaptive actions can potentially reduce the level of harm. In the UK, the government's adaptation program aims to develop a "climate-ready society." However, achieving broad public engagement in adaptation presents a significant communications challenge. Here, we aimed to understand how UK residents use and interpret the terms "climate change impacts" and "climate change adaptation." We conducted a secondary analysis of 22 interviews with UK residents, who were recruited for their diverse climate change views. The interviewees expressed a lack of clarity around expected climate change impacts, which did not prevent them from saying that they were already experiencing the effects of a changing climate. Further, threats to cultural norms and values were perceived as serious and emotionally charged. Adaptation was often conflated with mitigation, and responsibility for adaptation was contested. We discuss the implications of our findings for developing more useful public communication about climate change adaptation.

RevDate: 2019-08-11

Vanli Ö, Ustundag BB, Ahmad I, et al (2019)

Using crop modeling to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wheat in southeastern turkey.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06061-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The extreme temperatures and uneven distribution of rainfall associated with climate change are expected to affect agricultural productivity and food security. A study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on wheat in southeastern regions of Turkey. The CERES-wheat crop simulation model was calibrated and evaluated with data from eight surveyed farms. The four farms were used for calibration and four for evaluation. Climate change scenarios were developed for the middle (2036-2065) and late 21st century (2066-2095) under representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) for study sites in Islahiye and Nurdagi. Model calibration results showed a good agreement between observed and simulated yield with only a 1 to 11% range of error. The model evaluation results showed good fit between observed and simulated values of all parameters with % error ranged from 0.51 to 13.3%. Future climate change projections showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) will increase between 1.6 °C (RCP4.5) and 2.3 °C (RCP8.5), while minimum temperature (Tmin) will increase between 1.0 °C (RCP4.5) and 1.5 °C (RCP8.5) for mid-century. At the end of the century, Tmax is projected to increase from 2 °C (RCP4.5) to 4 °C (RCP8.5) and Tmin from 1.3 °C (RCP4.5) to 3.1 °C (RCP8.5). Climate change impacts results showed that future rise in temperature will reduce wheat yield by 16.3% in mid-century and 16.8% at the end of the century at Islahiye and for Nurdagi, while 13.0% in mid and 14.4% end of the century. The use of climate and crop modeling technique provides useful information in evaluating the climate change impacts and may assist stakeholders to make decisions to overcome the negative impacts in the near and long term.

RevDate: 2019-08-11

Damien M, K Tougeron (2019)

Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change.

Current opinion in insect science, 35:60-68 pii:S2214-5745(18)30189-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.

RevDate: 2019-08-10

Auffret AG, CD Thomas (2019)

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non-native species on community responses to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change, land-use change and introductions of non-native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm-associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non-native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm-associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool-associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non-native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community-level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non-natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate-driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.

RevDate: 2019-08-09

Ravindra K, Rattan P, Mor S, et al (2019)

Generalized additive models: Building evidence of air pollution, climate change and human health.

Environment international, 132:104987 pii:S0160-4120(19)30934-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Advances in statistical analysis in the last few decades in the area of linear models enhanced the capability of researchers to study environmental procedures. In relation to general linear models; generalized linear models (GLM) provide greater flexibility in analyzing data related to non-normal distributions. Considering this, the current review explains various applications of the generalized additive model (GAM) to link air pollution, climatic variability with adverse health outcomes. The review examines the application of GAM within the varied field, focusing on the environment and meteorological data. Further, advantages and complications of applying GAM to environmental data are also discussed. Application of GAM allowed for specification for the error pattern and found to be an appropriate fit for the data sets having non-normal distributions; this results in lower and more reliable p-values. Since most environmental data is non-normal, GAM provides a more effective analytical method than traditional linear models. This review highlights on ambient air pollutants, climate change, and health by evaluating studies related to GAM. Additionally, an insight into the application of GAM in R software is provided, which is open source software with the extensive application for any type of dataset.

RevDate: 2019-08-09

Weizman E, O Levy (2019)

The role of chromatin dynamics under global warming response in the symbiotic coral model Aiptasia.

Communications biology, 2:282 pii:543.

Extreme weather events frequency and scale are altered due to climate change. Symbiosis between corals and their endosymbiotic-dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium) is susceptible to these events and can lead to what is known as bleaching. However, there is evidence for coral adaptive plasticity in the role of epigenetic that have acclimated to high-temperature environments. We have implemented ATAC-seq and RNA-seq to study the cnidarian-dinoflagellate model Exaptasia pallida (Aiptasia) and expose the role of chromatin-dynamics in response to thermal-stress. We have identified 1309 genomic sites that change their accessibility in response to thermal changes. Moreover, apo-symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NFAT, ATF4, GATA3, SOX14, and PAX3 motifs and expressed genes related to immunological pathways. Symbiotic Aiptasia accessible sites were enriched with NKx3-1, HNF4A, IRF4 motifs and expressed genes related to oxidative-stress pathways. Our work opens a new path towards understanding thermal-stress gene regulation in association with gene activity and chromatin-dynamics.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Cornelissen B, Neumann P, O Schweiger (2019)

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (= pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Shalby A, Elshemy M, BA Zeidan (2019)

Assessment of climate change impacts on water quality parameters of Lake Burullus, Egypt.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06105-x [Epub ahead of print].

Egyptian Mediterranean coast hosts five shallow lagoons which play a vital role in the national economy. Lake Burullus is the second largest one that is located in the Nile Delta and is connected to the Mediterranean by a narrow outlet. This lagoon faces various anthropogenic-induced implications that threat its ecosystem and biodiversity. The prime objective of this study is investigating the impacts of future climate change (CC) on its characteristics. A 2-D hydro-ecological modeling for the lagoon was implemented, using MIKE21FM. The proposed model was calibrated and validated against the collected water quality records, for two successive years (2011-2013), at twelve monitoring stations throughout the lagoon. The simulations were executed for various parameters, including water depth, salinity, DO, BOD, and nutrient components. Six simulations from different regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained and examined to extract the most accurate climatic projections for the lagoon coordinates. These climatic estimates cover three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios according to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). A moderate sea level rise (SLR), locally projected offshore from the Nile Delta coast, was obtained. The validated model was forced with the climatic and SLR projections of 2 years representing the mid and long-term future of the twenty-first century. The model results showed that the developed model is an efficient tool to simulate the lagoon characteristics. The results of the modified model showed that CC has the potential to radically alter the physical and chemical structure of Lake Burullus. The results emphasized that the lagoon is expected to be warmer and more saline. The risk of oxygen depletion is firmly predictable with significant spatial differences of DO decreasing. A prolonged residence time is expected, accompanied by an increasing trend of phosphate and chlorophyll-a and a decreasing trend of nitrate. CC impacts on Lake Burullus should be considered in its urgently required management plan.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Ullah W, Nafees M, Khurshid M, et al (2019)

Assessing farmers' perspectives on climate change for effective farm-level adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(9):547 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7651-5.

Agriculture is considered as the backbone of the economy of Pakistan. However, current changes in climate have been adversely affecting agricultural productivity. In this paper, perceived impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation towards it have been studied in Charsadda district (lowlands) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan through extensive field surveys, involving 116 farm households. Results have revealed that climate change factors including fluctuating temperature, evidence of yearly long droughts, and a steady shift in rainfall patterns have pressured the agriculture sector and livelihoods of the local peasants. The staggering floods of 2010 and 2011 in Pakistan have evidenced severe climatic changes in Pakistan. These countrywide floods have washed fertile soil in the study area that has directly contributed to losses in agricultural yield and increased vector-borne diseases in crops. The local farmers have commonly deployed adaptive measure such as crops diversification, changing fertilizer, and planting shaded trees to minimize the impacts of changes in climate. However, these adjustments measures are perceived as not appropriate for improving farm yield. Therefore, the study suggests that improved understanding of the climate change impacts and knowledge on adapting adequately will lead to no-regret adaptation. It will also help protecting farmer's lives and livelihoods and will boost their resilience towards changing climatic conditions. Graphical abstract .

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Volenzo TE, JO Odiyo (2019)

Linking risk communication and sustainable climate change action: A conceptual framework.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):703 pii:JAMBA-11-703.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Schartup AT, Thackray CP, Qureshi A, et al (2019)

Climate change and overfishing increase neurotoxicant in marine predators.

Nature pii:10.1038/s41586-019-1468-9 [Epub ahead of print].

More than three billion people rely on seafood for nutrition. However, fish are the predominant source of human exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), a potent neurotoxic substance. In the United States, 82% of population-wide exposure to MeHg is from the consumption of marine seafood and almost 40% is from fresh and canned tuna alone1. Around 80% of the inorganic mercury (Hg) that is emitted to the atmosphere from natural and human sources is deposited in the ocean2, where some is converted by microorganisms to MeHg. In predatory fish, environmental MeHg concentrations are amplified by a million times or more. Human exposure to MeHg has been associated with long-term neurocognitive deficits in children that persist into adulthood, with global costs to society that exceed US$20 billion3. The first global treaty on reductions in anthropogenic Hg emissions (the Minamata Convention on Mercury) entered into force in 2017. However, effects of ongoing changes in marine ecosystems on bioaccumulation of MeHg in marine predators that are frequently consumed by humans (for example, tuna, cod and swordfish) have not been considered when setting global policy targets. Here we use more than 30 years of data and ecosystem modelling to show that MeHg concentrations in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) increased by up to 23% between the 1970s and 2000s as a result of dietary shifts initiated by overfishing. Our model also predicts an estimated 56% increase in tissue MeHg concentrations in Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) due to increases in seawater temperature between a low point in 1969 and recent peak levels-which is consistent with 2017 observations. This estimated increase in tissue MeHg exceeds the modelled 22% reduction that was achieved in the late 1990s and 2000s as a result of decreased seawater MeHg concentrations. The recently reported plateau in global anthropogenic Hg emissions4 suggests that ocean warming and fisheries management programmes will be major drivers of future MeHg concentrations in marine predators.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Khan MD, Thi Vu HH, Lai QT, et al (2019)

Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(15): pii:ijerph16152799.

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

RevDate: 2019-08-08

Clerici N, Cote-Navarro F, Escobedo FJ, et al (2019)

Spatio-temporal and cumulative effects of land use-land cover and climate change on two ecosystem services in the Colombian Andes.

The Science of the total environment, 685:1181-1192.

Climate change can have marked effects on ecosystem service (ES) provision in the Andes, particularly in peri-urban areas. In addition to global-change related processes, cumulative effects such as changing socio-political dynamics, environmental policies, and conflicts are also changing type and magnitude of land use-land cover (LULC) dynamics in the Colombian Andes. Studies in the region have investigated the effects of LULC change, deforestation and extreme climatic events on the hydrology of watersheds and carbon sequestration. Yet, less is known on how the cumulative effects of climate and LULC changes will drive water yield and carbon sequestration. To investigate these cumulative effects, we study two different watersheds near Bogota, Colombia and their ES for the period 2016-2046. We use IPCC-LULC scenarios, expert elicitation, hydro-meteorological data, and integrated modelling using temporal LULC change and ESs valuation models to parse out effects of LULC versus climate change on two representative ESs. Our results show forest and shrublands remain stable during the analysis period. However, urban conversion of agricultural pastures is substantial. We found that climate change scenarios had greater effect on water yield and supply than LULC scenarios in both watersheds. However, carbon sequestration was greater in rural forest and shrubland areas farther from Bogota. In contrast to current land use zoning being promoted by local elected officials, our findings indicate that land-use development and policies in near-urban basins need to minimize urbanization in agriculture and pasture LULCs, as these can have substantial effects on water yield. Similarly, land use polices in ex-urban areas need to conserve forested and shrubland areas to maximize their carbon offset potential. Collectively, our results highlight the need to incorporate climate change conditions in decision making and land use planning processes, in order to maintain the capacity of ecosystems, both urban and rural, to provide services to society.

RevDate: 2019-08-07

Stein RA, Sheldon ND, S Smith (2019)

Rapid response to anthropogenic climate change by Thuja occidentalis: implications for past climate reconstructions and future climate predictions.

PeerJ, 7:e7378 pii:7378.

Carbon isotope values of leaves (δ13Cleaf) from meta-analyses and growth chamber studies of C3 plants have been used to propose generalized relationships between δ13Cleaf and climate variables such as mean annual precipitation (MAP), atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]), and other climate variables. These generalized relationships are frequently applied to the fossil record to create paleoclimate reconstructions. Although plant evolution influences biochemistry and response to environmental stress, few studies have assessed species-specific carbon assimilation as it relates to climate outside of a laboratory. We measured δ13Cleaf values and C:N ratios of a wide-ranging evergreen conifer with a long fossil record, Thuja occidentalis (Cupressaceae) collected 1804-2017, in order to maximize potential paleo-applications of our focal species. This high-resolution record represents a natural experiment from pre-Industrial to Industrial times, which spans a range of geologically meaningful [CO2] and δ13Catm values. Δleaf values (carbon isotope discrimination between δ13Catm and δ13Cleaf) remain constant across climate conditions, indicating limited response to environmental stress. Only δ13Cleaf and δ13Catm values showed a strong relationship (linear), thus, δ13Cleaf is an excellent record of carbon isotopic changes in the atmosphere during Industrialization. In contrast with previous free-air concentration enrichment experiments, no relationship was found between C:N ratios and increasing [CO2]. Simultaneously static C:N ratios and Δleaf in light of increasing CO2 highlights plants' inability to match rapid climate change with increased carbon assimilation as previously expected; Δleaf values are not reliable tools to reconstruct MAP and [CO2], and δ13Cleaf values only decrease with [CO2] in line with atmospheric carbon isotope changes.

RevDate: 2019-08-07

Cariappa MP (2019)

Climate change vis-a-vis climate and change: the military public health paradigm.

Medical journal, Armed Forces India, 75(3):237-239.

RevDate: 2019-08-07

Hofer U (2019)

Candida auris' potential link to climate change.

Nature reviews. Microbiology pii:10.1038/s41579-019-0254-x [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-08-07

Ahmad R, Khuroo AA, Charles B, et al (2019)

Global distribution modelling, invasion risk assessment and niche dynamics of Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) under climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):11395 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-47859-1.

In an era of climate change, biological invasions by alien species represent one of the main anthropogenic drivers of global environmental change. The present study, using an ensemble modelling approach, has mapped current and future global distribution of the invasive Leucanthemum vulgare (Ox-eye Daisy) and predicted the invasion hotspots under climate change. The current potential distribution of Ox-eye Daisy coincides well with the actual distribution records, thereby indicating robustness of our model. The model predicted a global increase in the suitable habitat for the potential invasion of this species under climate change. Oceania was shown to be the high-risk region to the potential invasion of this species under both current and future climate change scenarios. The results revealed niche conservatism for Australia and Northern America, but contrastingly a niche shift for Africa, Asia, Oceania and Southern America. The global distribution modelling and risk assessment of Ox-eye Daisy has immediate implications in mitigating its invasion impacts under climate change, as well as predicting the global invasion hotspots and developing region-specific invasion management strategies. Interestingly, the contrasting patterns of niche dynamics shown by this invasive plant species provide novel insights towards disentangling the different operative mechanisms underlying the process of biological invasions at the global scale.

RevDate: 2019-08-07

Islam SU, Hay RW, Déry SJ, et al (2019)

Modelling the impacts of climate change on riverine thermal regimes in western Canada's largest Pacific watershed.

Scientific reports, 9(1):11398 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-47804-2.

Quantification of climate change impacts on the thermal regimes of rivers in British Columbia (BC) is crucial given their importance to aquatic ecosystems. Using the Air2Stream model, we investigate the impact of both air temperature and streamflow changes on river water temperatures from 1950 to 2015 across BC's 234,000 km2 Fraser River Basin (FRB). Model results show the FRB's summer water temperatures rose by nearly 1.0 °C during 1950-2015 with 0.47 °C spread across 17 river sites. For most of these sites, such increases in average summer water temperature have doubled the number of days exceeding 20 °C, the water temperature that, if exceeded, potentially increases the physiological stress of salmon during migration. Furthermore, river sites, especially those in the upper and middle FRB, show significant associations between Pacific Ocean teleconnections and regional water temperatures. A multivariate linear regression analysis reveals that air temperature primarily controls simulated water temperatures in the FRB by capturing ~80% of its explained variance with secondary impacts through river discharge. Given such increases in river water temperature, salmon returning to spawn in the Fraser River and its tributaries are facing continued and increasing physical challenges now and potentially into the future.

RevDate: 2019-08-06

Sainsbury P, Charlesworth K, Madden L, et al (2019)

Climate change is a health issue: what can doctors do?.

Internal medicine journal, 49(8):1044-1048.

The visit to Australia by Dr David Pencheon, Founding Director of the National Health Service (NHS) Sustainable Development Unit, in April-May 2018 generated considerable interest and engagement. Dr Pencheon's overarching messages were that climate change is a health issue and that doctors and health systems have an opportunity, and responsibility, to lead climate action. This article distils Dr Pencheon's presentations into three themes: (i) carbon accounting; (ii) transformational change in our systems of healthcare; and (iii) a health system fit for the future. For each theme, we highlight promising initiatives that are already underway in Australia that are starting to transform our health system into one fit for a future environmentally sustainable world. We suggest practical ways in which doctors can lead the transformation through personal action and influence broader systems.

RevDate: 2019-08-06

Wu J, Huang C, Pang M, et al (2019)

Planned sheltering as an adaptation strategy to climate change: Lessons learned from the severe flooding in Anhui Province of China in 2016.

The Science of the total environment, 694:133586 pii:S0048-9697(19)33511-9 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Evacuation and sheltering is both a disaster response measure and a strategy to adapt to climate change, and consequently address the Sustainable Development Goals. Research has found that displacement does cause negative health impacts to evacuees, but few studies have observed how planned sheltering might reduce adverse health impacts. This article identifies the good practice and lessons learned from China's response to severe flooding in Anhui province in 2016.

METHODS: First, we identified the key phases for disaster sheltering by analyzing related government reports. We then interviewed 21 relevant professionals in order to identify good practice and lessons learned which could lead to better health outcomes (e.g., reduce fatalities, infectious diseases, and mental health problems). Interviewees were selected through a purposive sampling strategy, which identified emergency management professionals and those who had been assigned evacuation, sheltering, or medical tasks. Finally, thematic analysis and the constant comparative method were used to code, identify, and describe the good practice and challenges during key phases.

RESULTS: Good practice included: using early warning systems to advise communities of risks and enforce evacuation in the flood zone; preparing and using schools as shelters with open-ended periods of operation; and, providing stable shelter accommodations which offered medical and public health services, clean drinking water and food, sanitation, and toilet hygiene through multiagency cooperation. Challenges included: providing mental health services, evaluating intervention effectiveness, managing volunteers, monitoring long-term health effects, and providing economic support.

CONCLUSIONS: The unintended negative effects caused by sheltering during extreme weather can be reduced. This requires close cooperation among government entities to establish planned mass shelters with appropriate levels of personal, environmental and healthcare support and to ensure long-term physical and mental health support. Additionally, if disaster mitigation strategies are integrated with climate adaptation plans, we can design more health-oriented and sustainable cities.

RevDate: 2019-08-06

Lapola DM, da Silva JMC, Braga DR, et al (2019)

A climate-change vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Brazil's protected areas.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

Brazil hosts the largest expanse of tropical ecosystems within protected areas (PAs), which shelter biodiversity and support traditional populations. Here we present a vulnerability analysis of 993 terrestrial and coastal-marine Brazilian PAs by combining indicators of climatic change hazard with indicators of PA resilience (size, native vegetation integrity inside and around PAs and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition). The combination of hazard level and resilience status allows the proposition of broad adaptation pathways to cope with climate change in these PAs. We found 17 PAs (covering 20,611 km2) rated as highly vulnerable, located mainly in the Atlantic Forest (7 PAs), Cerrado (6), and the Amazon (4). Other 258 PAs, covering 756,569 km2 , located primarily in Amazonia are categorized as having a moderate/medium vulnerability. In the Amazon and western Cerrado the projected severe climatic change and probability of climate-driven vegetation transition drives vulnerability up, despite the generally good conservation status of PAs. More than 80% of these PAs under a high or moderate vulnerability are PAs managed by indigenous populations. Hence, besides the potential risks to biodiversity, the traditional knowledge and livelihoods of the people who inhabit these PAs may be threatened in the future. In at least 870 PAs, the majority of them located in the Atlantic Forest and Amazon, adaptation could happen with little or no intervention due to low climate change hazard and/or high resilience status. A smaller number of at least 20 PAs, located in the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Amazonia should be targeted for deeper interventions, such as improvement of ecological connectivity, given their low resilience status. Despite being a first attempt to interconnect vulnerability and adaptation in Brazilian PAs, we suggest that part of the PAs identified as highly or moderately vulnerable should be prioritized for testing potential adaptation strategies in the near future. Article impact statement: A minority of Brazilian protected areas are highly vulnerable to climate change and demand strong adaptation-oriented management. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Wang ZM, Meng SY, GY Rao (2019)

Quaternary climate change and habitat preference shaped the genetic differentiation and phylogeography of Rhodiola sect. Prainia in the southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Ecology and evolution, 9(14):8305-8319 pii:ECE35406.

There are two long-standing biogeographic hypotheses regarding the glacial survival of plant species in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP): the in situ survival hypothesis and the tabula rasa hypothesis. We tested these two hypotheses in a phylogeographic study of Rhodiola sect. Prainia, a monophyletic section with ecologically divergent lineages. Molecular data from the nuclear internal transcribed spacer, six plastid markers and 13 nuclear microsatellite loci were analyzed for 240 individuals from 19 populations of this section. Environmental data were used to analyze the niches of major phylogenetic lineages within this section and to model changes in their distributions since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We found that Rhodiola sect. Prainia consists of three evolutionary lineages: all populations of R. stapfii, R. prainii populations at the southern edge of the QTP, and R. prainii populations in the interior part of the QTP. During the LGM, the survival of R. prainii in the interior part of the QTP corresponded with the in situ survival hypothesis, while R. stapfii most probably survived the LGM in a manner corresponding with the tabula rasa hypothesis. The evolutionary history of different lineages of this section was shaped by topography, climate change, and lineage-specific habitat preferences.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Reusch C, Gampe J, Scheuerlein A, et al (2019)

Differences in seasonal survival suggest species-specific reactions to climate change in two sympatric bat species.

Ecology and evolution, 9(14):7957-7965 pii:ECE35292.

Long-lived animals with a low annual reproductive output need a long time to recover from population crashes and are, thus, likely to face high extinction risk, if the current global environmental change will increase mortality rates. To aid conservation of those species, knowledge on the variability of mortality rates is essential. Unfortunately, however, individual-based multiyear data sets that are required for that have only rarely been collected for free-ranging long-lived mammals. Here, we used a five-year data set comprising activity data of 1,445 RFID-tagged individuals of two long-lived temperate zone bat species, Natterer's bats (Myotis nattereri) and Daubenton's bats (Myotis daubentonii), at their joint hibernaculum. Both species are listed as being of high conservation interest by the European Habitats Directive. Applying mixed-effects logistic regression, we explored seasonal survival differences in these two species which differ in foraging strategy and phenology. In both species, survival over the first winter of an individual's life was much lower than survival over subsequent winters. Focussing on adults only, seasonal survival patterns were largely consistent with higher winter and lower summer survival but varied in its level across years in both species. Our analyses, furthermore, highlight the importance of species-specific time periods for survival. Daubenton's bats showed a much stronger difference in survival between the two seasons than Natterer's bats. In one exceptional winter, the population of Natterer's bats crashed, while the survival of Daubenton's bats declined only moderately. While our results confirm the general seasonal survival pattern typical for hibernating mammals with higher winter than summer survival, they also show that this pattern can be reversed under particular conditions. Overall, our study points toward a high importance of specific time periods for population dynamics and suggests species-, population-, and age class-specific responses to global climate change.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Souza AF, SJ Longhi (2019)

Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics.

Ecology and evolution, 9(12):7184-7199 pii:ECE35289.

The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the 9-year change observed in a mixed conifer-hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life-history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO2, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass-accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long-lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land-use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Bogawski P, Damen T, Nowak MM, et al (2019)

Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa.

Ecology and evolution, 9(12):6833-6848 pii:ECE35251.

Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light-demanding and drought-tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species-specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2-ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to -63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6-8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Mo Y, Kearney MS, RE Turner (2019)

Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long-term phenological shifts.

Ecology and evolution, 9(12):6785-6797 pii:ECE35215.

Coastal marshes are important carbon sinks facing serious threats from climatic stressors. Current research reveals that the growth of individual marsh plants is susceptible to a changing climate, but the responses of different marsh systems at a landscape scale are less clear. Here, we document the multi-decadal changes in the phenology and the area of the extensive coastal marshes in Louisiana, USA, a representative of coastal ecosystems around the world that currently experiencing sea-level rise, temperature warming, and atmospheric CO 2 increase. The phenological records are constructed using the longest continuous satellite-based record of the Earth's ecosystems, the Landsat data, and an advanced modeling technique, the nonlinear mixed model. We find that the length of the growing seasons of the intermediate and brackish marshes increased concomitantly with the atmospheric CO 2 concentration over the last 30 years, and predict that such changes will continue and accelerate in the future. These phenological changes suggest a potential increase in CO 2 uptake and thus a negative feedback mechanism to climate change. The areas of the freshwater and intermediate marshes were stable over the period studied, but the areas of the brackish and saline marshes decreased substantially, suggesting ecosystem instability and carbon storage loss under the anticipated sea-level rise. The marshes' phenological shifts portend their potentially critical role in climate mitigation, and the different responses among systems shed light on the underlying mechanisms of such changes.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Luo Y, J Zhao (2019)

Motivated Attention in Climate Change Perception and Action.

Frontiers in psychology, 10:1541.

Despite the scientific consensus, some people still remain skeptical about climate change. In fact, there is a growing partisan divide over the last decade within the United States in the support for climate policies. Given the same climate evidence, why do some people become concerned while others remain unconvinced? Here we propose a motivated attention framework where socio-political motivations shape visual attention to climate evidence, altering perceptions of the evidence and subsequent actions to mitigate climate change. To seek support for this framework, we conducted three experiments. Participants viewed a graph of annual global temperature change while they were eyetracked and estimated the average change. We found that political orientation may bias attention to climate change evidence, altering the perception of the same evidence (Experiment 1). We further examined how attentional biases influence subsequent actions to mitigate climate change. We found that liberals were more likely to sign a climate petition or more willing to donate to an environmental organization than conservatives, and attention guides climate actions in different ways for liberals and conservatives (Experiment 2). To seek causal evidence, we biased attention to different parts of the temperature curve by coloring stronger climate evidence in red or weak climate evidence in red. We found that liberals were more likely to sign the petition or more willing to donate when stronger evidence was in red, but conservatives were less likely to act when stronger evidence was in red (Experiment 3). This suggests that drawing attention to motivationally consistent information increases actions in liberals, but discouraged conservatives. The findings provide initial preliminary evidence for the motivated attention framework, suggesting an attentional divide between liberals and conservatives in the perception of climate evidence. This divide might further reinforce prior beliefs about climate change, creating further polarization. The current study raises a possible attentional mechanism for ideologically motivated reasoning and its impact on basic perceptual processes. It also provides implications for the communication of climate science to different socio-political groups with the goal of mobilizing actions on climate change.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Honda A, Murakami S, Harada M, et al (2019)

Late Pleistocene climate change and population dynamics of Japanese Myodes voles inferred from mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences.

Journal of mammalogy, 100(4):1156-1168.

The Japanese archipelago is comprised of four main islands-Hokkaido, Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu-which contain high mountainous areas that likely allowed for lineage differentiation and population genetic structuring during the climatic changes of the late Pleistocene. Here, we assess the historical background of the evolutionary dynamics of herbivorous red-backed voles (Myodes) in Japan, examining the evolutionary trends of mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (Cytb) sequence variation. Four apparent signals from rapid expansion events were detected in three species, M. rufocanus and M. rutilus from Hokkaido and M. smithii from central Honshu. Taken together with results from previous studies on Japanese wood mice (Apodemus spp.), three of the expansion events were considered to be associated with predicted bottleneck events at the marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 period, in which glaciers are thought to have expanded extensively, especially at higher elevations. In the late Pleistocene, the possible candidates are transitions MIS 6/5, MIS 4/3, and MIS 2/1, which can be characterized by the cold periods of the penultimate glacial maximum, MIS 4, and the last glacial maximum, respectively. Our data further reveal the genetic footprints of repeated range expansion and contraction in the northern and southern lineages of the vole species currently found in central Honshu, namely M. andersoni and M. smithii, in response to climatic oscillation during the late Pleistocene. The time-dependent evolutionary rates of the mitochondrial Cytb presented here would provide a possible way for assessing population dynamics of cricetid rodents responding to the late Pleistocene environmental fluctuation.

RevDate: 2019-08-05

Nugent R, E Fottrell (2019)

Non-communicable diseases and climate change: linked global emergencies.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(19)31762-3 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-08-04

Bartosiewicz M, Przytulska A, Deshpande BN, et al (2019)

Effects of climate change and episodic heat events on cyanobacteria in a eutrophic polymictic lake.

The Science of the total environment, 693:133414 pii:S0048-9697(19)33331-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Mixing regime and CO2 availability may control cyanobacterial blooms in polymictic lakes, but the underlying mechanisms still remain unclear. We integrated detailed results from a natural experiment comprising an average-wet year (2011) and one with heat waves (2012), a long-term meteorological dataset (1960-2010), historical phosphorus concentrations and sedimentary pigment records, to determine the mechanistic controls of cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic polymictic lake. Intense warming in 2012 was associated with: 1) increased stability of the water column with buoyancy frequencies exceeding 40 cph at the surface, 2) high phytoplankton biomass in spring (up to 125 mg WW L-1), 3) reduced downward transport of heat and 4) depleted epilimnetic CO2 concentrations. CO2 depletion was maintained by intense uptake by phytoplankton (influx up to 30 mmol m-2 d-1) in combination with reduced, internal and external, carbon inputs during dry, stratified periods. These synergistic effects triggered bloom of buoyant cyanobacteria (up to 300 mg WW L-1) in the hot year. Complementary evidence from polynomial regression modelling using historical data and pigment record revealed that warming explains 78% of the observed trends in cyanobacterial biomass, whereas historical phosphorus concentration only 10% thereof. Together the results from the natural experiment and the long-term record indicate that effects of hotter and drier climate are likely to increase water column stratification and decrease CO2 availability in eutrophic polymictic lakes. This combination will catalyze blooms of buoyant cyanobacteria.

RevDate: 2019-08-04

Spinoit AF (2019)

Hypospadias increased prevalence in Surveillance Systems for Birth Defects is observed: Next to climate change are we going towards a human fertility alteration?.

RevDate: 2019-08-02

Middendorf BJ, Prasad PVV, GM Pierzynski (2019)

Setting Research Priorities for Tackling Climate Change.

Journal of experimental botany pii:5543186 [Epub ahead of print].

Addressing the complex issues related to climate change requires multiple innovative approaches to identify research priorities involving multi-disciplinary research teams. Participatory approaches involving a variety of perspectives were used to gain insights into critical issues such as defining and understanding sustainable intensification, climate smart agriculture, and soil fertility prioritization in sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis drew on the foundation principles of participatory research and fundamental facilitation skills, while grounded in scientific knowledge and understanding of these complex issues. This approach essentially incorporates the relevant principles of participatory learning and action, primarily designed for development projects, with a new set of actors within the research and policy domain. The results of three case studies that utilized participatory techniques with a set of multi-disciplinary research teams are presented. The case studies include: 1) Feed the Future Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab (SIIL) proposal development grounded in country-led and national priorities in Bangladesh, Tanzania, and Cambodia; 2) Climate Smart Agriculture and Sustainable Intensification (SI) Assessment and Priority Setting in Rwanda; and 3) Soil Fertility Prioritization in Sub Saharan Africa. We discuss how the future directions of such initiatives were shaped for improved outcomes.

RevDate: 2019-08-02

Sakamoto R, Tanimoto T, Takahashi K, et al (2019)

Flourishing Japanese Encephalitis, Associated with Global Warming and Urbanisation in Asia, Demands Widespread Integrated Vaccination Programmes.

Annals of global health, 85(1):.

RevDate: 2019-08-02

Lewandowsky S, Cook J, Fay N, et al (2019)

Correction to: Science by social media: Attitudes towards climate change are mediated by perceived social consensus.

Confidence intervals and regression lines were omitted from Fig. 1 in this article as originally published. This error was introduced during production. The original article has been corrected.

RevDate: 2019-08-02

Cabral H, Fonseca V, Sousa T, et al (2019)

Synergistic Effects of Climate Change and Marine Pollution: An Overlooked Interaction in Coastal and Estuarine Areas.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(15): pii:ijerph16152737.

Coastal areas have been increasingly affected by human activities, marine pollution and climate change are among the most important pressures affecting these environments. Human-induced pressures occur in a cumulative way and generate additive, antagonistic or synergistic effects. Knowledge on synergistic effects is crucial to coastal zone management, since they may imply a change in human uses of these systems, as well as dedicated action plans in order to reduce hazards and environmental risks. In this work, we provide an overview of the available literature on synergistic effects between climate change and chemical pollution, and discuss current knowledge, methodological approaches, and research gaps and needs. Interactions between these two pressures may be climate change dominant (climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure or toxicity) or contaminant-dominant (chemical exposure leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility), but the mechanistic drivers of such processes are not well known. Results from a few meta-analyses studies and reviews showed that synergistic interactions tend to be more frequent compared to additive and antagonistic ones. However, most of the studies are individual-based and assess the cumulative effects of a few contaminants individually in laboratory settings together with few climate variables, particularly temperature and pH. Nevertheless, a wide diversity of contaminants have already been individually tested, spanning from metals, persistent organic pollutants and, more recently, emergent pollutants. Population and community based approaches are less frequent but have generated very interesting and more holistic perspectives. Methodological approaches are quite diverse, from laboratory studies to mesocosm and field studies, or based on statistical or modelling tools, each with their own potential and limitations. More holistic comparisons integrating several pressures and their combinations and a multitude of habitats, taxa, life-stages, among others, are needed, as well as insights from meta-analyses and systematic reviews.

RevDate: 2019-08-01

Crosman KM, Bostrom A, AL Hayes (2019)

Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change.

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis [Epub ahead of print].

Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn about how laypersons think about the ease and effectiveness of potential mitigative actions. To bring clarity and inform risk communication and management efforts, we investigate how people think about efficacy in the context of climate change risk management by analyzing unprompted and prompted beliefs from two national surveys (N = 405, N = 1,820). In general, respondents distinguish little between effective and ineffective climate strategies. While many respondents appreciate that reducing fossil fuel use is an effective risk mitigation strategy, overall assessments reflect persistent misconceptions about climate change causes, and uncertainties about the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Our findings suggest targeting climate change risk communication and management strategies to (1) address gaps in people's existing mental models of climate action, (2) leverage existing public understanding of both potentially effective mitigation strategies and the collective action dilemma at the heart of climate change action, and (3) take into account ideologically driven reactions to behavior change and government action framed as climate action.

RevDate: 2019-08-01

da Silva JMC, Rapini A, Barbosa LCF, et al (2019)

Extinction risk of narrowly distributed species of seed plants in Brazil due to habitat loss and climate change.

PeerJ, 7:e7333 pii:7333.

In a world where changes in land cover and climate happen faster than ever due to the expansion of human activities, narrowly distributed species are predicted to be the first to go extinct. Studies projecting species extinction in tropical regions consider either habitat loss or climate change as drivers of biodiversity loss but rarely evaluate them together. Here, the contribution of these two factors to the extinction risk of narrowly distributed species (with ranges smaller than 10,000 km2) of seed plants endemic to a fifth-order watershed in Brazil (microendemics) is assessed. We estimated the Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) of these watersheds (areas with microendemics) and projected three scenarios of land use up to the year 2100 based on the average annual rates of habitat loss in these watersheds from 2000 to 2014. These scenarios correspond to immediate conservation action (scenario 1), long-term conservation action (scenario 2), and no conservation action (scenario 3). In each scenario, areas with microendemics were classified into four classes: (1) areas with low risk, (2) areas threatened by habitat loss, (3) areas threatened by climate change, and (4) areas threatened by climate change and habitat loss. We found 2,354 microendemic species of seed plants in 776 areas that altogether cover 17.5% of Brazil. Almost 70% (1,597) of these species are projected to be under high extinction risk by the end of the century due to habitat loss, climate change, or both, assuming that these areas will not lose habitat in the future due to land use. However, if habitat loss in these areas continues at the prevailing annual rates, the number of threatened species is projected to increase to more than 85% (2,054). The importance of climate change and habitat loss as drivers of species extinction varies across phytogeographic domains, and this variation requires the adoption of retrospective and prospective conservation strategies that are context specific. We suggest that tropical countries, such as Brazil, should integrate biodiversity conservation and climate change policies (both mitigation and adaptation) to achieve win-win social and environmental gains while halting species extinction.

RevDate: 2019-07-31

Logar-Henderson C, Ling R, Tuite AR, et al (2019)

Effects of large-scale oceanic phenomena on non-cholera vibriosis incidence in the United States: implications for climate change.

Epidemiology and infection, 147:e243.

Non-cholera Vibrio (NCV) species are important causes of disease. These pathogens are thermophilic and climate change could increase the risk of NCV infection. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a 'natural experiment' that may presage ocean warming effects on disease incidence. In order to evaluate possible climatic contributions to observed increases in NCV infection, we obtained NCV case counts for the United States from publicly available surveillance data. Trends and impacts of large-scale oceanic phenomena, including ENSO, were evaluated using negative binomial and distributed non-linear lag models (DNLM). Associations between latitude and changing risk were evaluated with meta-regression. Trend models demonstrated expected seasonality (P < 0.001) and a 7% (6.1%-8.1%) annual increase in incidence from 1999 to 2014. DNLM demonstrated increased vibriosis risk following ENSO conditions over the subsequent 12 months (relative risk 1.940, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.298-2.901). The 'relative-relative risk' (RRR) of annual disease incidence increased with latitude (RRR per 10° increase 1.066, 95% CI 1.027-1.107). We conclude that NCV risk in the United States is impacted by ocean warming, which is likely to intensify with climate change, increasing NCV risk in vulnerable populations.

RevDate: 2019-07-31

Rossiello MR, A Szema (2019)

Health Effects of Climate Change-induced Wildfires and Heatwaves.

Cureus, 11(5):e4771.

Global warming is a phenomenon that is affecting society in sundry ways. As of 2017, Earth's global surface temperature increased 0.9°C compared to the average temperature in the mid-1900s. Beyond this change in temperature lies significant threats to human health in the form of natural disasters and extreme temperatures. One natural disaster that has been receiving much more attention as of 2010 is the ignition and spread of wildfires. Warmer climates lead to drier conditions, providing ideal kindling for the rapid spread of these infernos. The dangers that these intense fires pose are twofold: first, the fire causes mass property damage, physical harm, or death to the people unfortunate enough to be caught in the blaze; second, the health hazards of smoke inhalation and the emotional strain of losing one's possessions cause immense physical and emotional harm to the fire's victims. Another health hazard that is becoming more common due to global warming is heatwave exposure. The heat provides an ideal environment for certain pathogens to thrive, increases people's risk of developing temperature-related health conditions, and could exacerbate many preexisting diseases. The increase in frequency and intensity of these extreme weather conditions calls for devotion of resources to fire prevention and public health measures related to smoke inhalation and heat exposure.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Zhang Y, Wang Y, Chen Y, et al (2019)

Assessment of future flash flood inundations in coastal regions under climate change scenarios-A case study of Hadahe River basin in northeastern China.

The Science of the total environment, 693:133550 pii:S0048-9697(19)33470-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change may considerably influence flash floods by increasing extreme precipitation. Coastal regions in eastern and southern China may experience especially negative effects because of the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones (TCs). This study presented a hazard assessment framework for TCs-induced flash floods under climate change scenarios and assessed future inundations in Hadahe River basin, which is in northeastern China. From 1965 to 2014, there were twenty-four TCs ranging from severe tropical storm to super typhoon over Hadahe River basin in twenty years. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are too coarse to depict the impact of TCs on extreme precipitation; therefore, hourly precipitation data from two gauges and the tracks of TCs were used to assess the impact of TCs. An extreme precipitation event on 3-4 August 2012 and the same 600-year future probabilistic extreme rainfall were utilized to investigate the impact of climate change. Daily precipitation data from eight climate models from the NEX-GDDP dataset during 1965-2005 and 2050-2099 represented historical and future simulation conditions, respectively. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS was integrated with the hydraulic model FLO-2D to simulate discharges and inundations of past and future TCs episodes. The results showed that flooded area is projected to increase by 6.6% and 7.8% for inundation depth between 1.0 and 3.0 m under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. For inundation depth over 3.0 m, flooded area is projected to increase by 17.6% and 22.0%. Relative change of flash flood extent increases as inundation depth increases, indicating that climate change is likely to increase the risk of flash floods. Additional adaptation measures are needed to make the Hadahe River basin and other similar coastal basins more resilient. The results also indicated that considering the impact of TCs produces a more reliable assessment of future flash floods in coastal regions.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Patella V, Florio G, Magliacane D, et al (2019)

Public Prevention Plans to Manage Climate Change and Respiratory Allergic Diseases. Innovative Models Used in Campania Region (Italy): The Twinning Aria Implementation and the Allergy Safe Tree Decalogue.

Translational medicine @ UniSa, 19:95-102.

In recent years, climate change has been influenced by air pollution, and this destructive combination has justifiably sounded an alarm for nations and many institutional bodies worldwide. Official reports state that the emission of greenhouse gases produced by human activity are growing, and consequently also the average temperature. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that health effects expected in the future due to climate change will be dramatic, and has invited international groups to investigate potential remedies. A task force has been established by the Italian Society of Allergology, Asthma and Clinical Immunology (SIAAIC), with the aim to actively work on correlation between pollution and climate change. The Task Force provided prevention tools to suggest city leaders how to improve the health conditions of allergic people in public urban parks. The "Allergy Safe Tree Decalogue" suggests the preparation and maintenance of public low allergy-impact greenery. Through the Twinning ARIA project, the Division for the Promotion and Enhancement of Health Innovation Programs of Campania Region (Italy), sought to promote the implementation of the project in the regional Health System. The main objective will be to investigate the current use and usefulness of mobile phone Apps in the management of allergic respiratory disease, through Mobile Airways Sentinel networK (MASK), the Phase 3 of the ARIA initiative, based on the freely available MASK App (the Allergy Diary, Android and iOS platforms). The effects of these prevention activities will be registered and compared with monitoring efforts thanks to the Aerobiology Units, located throughout the Campania area. A joint effort between researchers and public administrations for the implementation of prevention plans coherently with the two models proposed in a specific area, i.e. the Decalogue for public administrations and the MASK Allergy Diary app for individual patients suffering from allergy, will be implemented as a pilot.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Bertoldo R, Mays C, Böhm G, et al (2019)

Scientific truth or debate: On the link between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change exists and is caused by human activity. It has been argued that communicating the consensus can counter climate scepticism, given that perceived scientific consensus is a major factor predicting public belief that climate change is anthropogenic. However, individuals may hold different models of science, potentially affecting their interpretation of scientific consensus. Using representative surveys in the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Norway, we assessed whether the relationship between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change is conditioned by a person's viewing science as 'the search for truth' or as 'debate'. Results show that perceived scientific consensus is higher among climate change believers and moreover, significantly predicts belief in anthropogenic climate change. This relationship is stronger among people holding a model of science as the 'search for truth'. These results help to disentangle the effect of implicit epistemological assumptions underlying the public understanding of the climate change debate.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Duan R, Takahashi B, A Zwickle (2019)

Abstract or concrete? The effect of climate change images on people's estimation of egocentric psychological distance.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change has been widely perceived as a psychologically distant risk, largely viewed as separated from one's direct experience. Using construal-level theory, we examined how the level of abstraction and concreteness of climate change imagery affects viewers' perceived psychological distance of climate change, including spatial, temporal, social, and hypothetical (level of uncertainty) distances. Participants (n = 402) were randomly assigned to one of two experimental conditions, one with abstract images and one with concrete images. Results show that the abstract and concrete images successfully activated people's abstract and concrete mind-sets, respectively, and people who viewed abstract images were more likely to perceive climate change as a spatially and temporally distant issue.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Talchabhadel R, R Karki (2019)

Assessing climate boundary shifting under climate change scenarios across Nepal.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(8):520 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7644-4.

This study assesses the climate boundary shifts from the historical time to near/mid future by using a slightly modified Köppen-Geiger (KG) classification scheme and presents comprehensive pictures of historical (1960-1990) and projected near/mid future (1950s: 2040-2060/1970s: 2060-2080) climate classes across Nepal. Ensembles of three selected general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for projected future analysis. During the 1950s, annual average temperature is expected to increase by 2.5 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, during the 1970s, it is even anticipated to rise by 3.6 °C under RCP 8.5. The rate of temperature rise is higher in the non-monsoon period than in monsoon period. During the 1970s, annual precipitation is projected to increase by 8.1% under RCP 8.5. Even though the precipitation is anticipated to increase in the future in annual scale, winter seasons are estimated to be drier by more than 15%. This study shows significant increments of tropical (Am and Aw) and arid (BSk) climate types and reductions of temperate (Cwa and Cwb) and polar (ET and EF). Noticeably, the reduction of the areal coverage of polar frost (EF) is considerably high. In general, about 50% of the country's area is covered by the temperate climate (Cwa and Cwb) in baseline scenario and it is expected to reduce to 45% under RCP 4.5 and 42.5% under RCP 8.5 during the 1950s, and 42% under RCP 4.5 and 39% under RCP 8.5 during the 1970s. Importantly, the degree of climate boundary shifts is quite higher under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5, and likewise, the degree is higher during the 1970s than the 1950s. We believe this study to facilitate the identification of regions in which impacts of climate change are notable for crop production, soil management, and disaster risk reduction, requiring a more detailed assessment of adaptation measures. The assessment of climate boundary shifting can serve as valuable information for stakeholders of many disciplines like water, climate, transport, energy, environment, disaster, development, agriculture, and tourism.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Weaver CP, CA Miller (2019)

A Framework for Climate Change-Related Research to Inform Environmental Protection.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01189-0 [Epub ahead of print].

A critical charge for science to inform environmental protection is to characterize the risks associated with climate change, to support development of appropriate responses. The nature of climate change, however, presents significant challenges that must be overcome to do so, including the need for integration and synthesis across the many disciplines that contain knowledge relevant for achieving environmental protection goals. This paper describes an interdisciplinary research framework organized around three "Science Challenges" that directly respond to the needs of environmental protection organizations. Broadly, these Science Challenges refer to the research needed to: inform actions to enhance resilience across a broad range of environmental and social stresses to environmental management endpoints; actions to limit GHG emissions and slow the underlying rate of climate change; and the transition to sustainability across the full spectrum of climate change impacts and solutions; all as situated within an overarching risk management perspective. These Challenges span all media and systems critical to effective environmental protection, highlighting the cross-cutting nature of climate change and the need to address its impacts across systems and places. While this framework uses EPA's programs as an illustrative example, the research directions articulated herein are broadly applicable across the spectrum of environmental protection organizations. Going forward, we recommend that climate-related research to inform environmental protection efforts should accelerate its evolution toward research that is inherently cross-media and cross-scale; explicitly considers the social dimensions of change; and focuses on designing solutions to the specific risks climate change poses to the environment and society.

RevDate: 2019-07-30

Kakumanu ML, Ma L, MA Williams (2019)

Drought-induced soil microbial amino acid and polysaccharide change and their implications for C-N cycles in a climate change world.

Scientific reports, 9(1):10968 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-46984-1.

High microbial carbon (MBC) demand, a proxy for energy demand (cost), during soil microbial response to stressors such as drought are a major gap in understanding global biogeochemical cycling of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). The dynamics of two dominant microbial pools (amino acids; AA and exopolymeric substances; EPS) in soils exposed to drying and C and N amendment to mimic both low and high nutrient soil habitats were examined. It was hypothesized that dynamics of EPS and AA (osmolytes) would be greater when soil drying was preceded by a pulse of bioavailable C and N. Drying reduced AA content, even as overall soil MBC increased (~35%). The increase in absolute amounts and mol% of certain AA (eg: Taurine, glutamine, tyrosine, phenylalanine) in the driest treatment (-10 MPa) were similar in both soils regardless of amendment suggesting a common mechanism underlying the energy intensive acclimation across soils. MBC and EPS, both increased ~1.5X and ~3X due to drying and especially drying associated with amendment. Overall major pools of C and N based microbial metabolites are dynamic to drying (drought), and thus have implications for earth's biogeochemical fluxes of C and N, perhaps costing 4-7% of forest fixed photosynthetic C input during a single drying (drought) period.

RevDate: 2019-07-29

Paliani A (2019)

Climate Change Education.

The American journal of nursing, 119(8):10.

RevDate: 2019-07-29

Yang Y, Zhao J, Zhao P, et al (2019)

Trait-Based Climate Change Predictions of Vegetation Sensitivity and Distribution in China.

Frontiers in plant science, 10:908.

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) suffer insufficiencies in tracking biochemical cycles and ecosystem fluxes. One important reason for these insufficiencies is that DGVMs use fixed parameters (mostly traits) to distinguish attributes and functions of plant functional types (PFTs); however, these traits vary under different climatic conditions. Therefore, it is urgent to quantify trait covariations, including those among specific leaf area (SLA), area-based leaf nitrogen (Narea), and leaf area index (LAI) (in 580 species across 218 sites in this study), and explore new classification methods that can be applied to model vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. We use a redundancy analysis (RDA) to derive trait-climate relationships and employ a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to project vegetation distributions under different climate scenarios. The results show that (1) the three climatic variables, mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and monthly photosynthetically active radiation (mPAR) could capture 65% of the covariations of three functional traits; (2) tropical, subtropical and temperate forest complexes expand while boreal forest, temperate steppe, temperate scrub and tundra shrink under future climate change scenarios; and (3) the GMM classification based on trait covariations should be a powerful candidate for building new generation of DGVM, especially predicting the response of vegetation to future climate changes. This study provides a promising route toward developing reliable, robust and realistic vegetation models and can address a series of limitations in current models.

RevDate: 2019-07-28

Azani N, Bruneau A, Wojciechowski MF, et al (2019)

Corrigendum to "Miocene climate change as a driving force for multiple origins of annual species in Astragalus (Fabaceae, Papilionoideae)" [Mol. Phylogenet. Evol. 137 (2019) 210-221].

RevDate: 2019-07-28

Li X, Mao F, Du H, et al (2019)

Spatiotemporal evolution and impacts of climate change on bamboo distribution in China.

Journal of environmental management, 248:109265 pii:S0301-4797(19)30967-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding the impact and restriction of climate change on potential distribution of bamboo forest is crucial for sustainable management of bamboo forest and bamboo-based economic development. In this study, climatic variables and maximum entropy model were used to simulate the potential distribution of bamboo forest in China under the future climate scenarios. Seven climatic variables, such as Spring precipitation, Summer precipitation, Autumn precipitation, average annual relative humidity, Autumn average temperature, average annual temperature range and annual total radiation, were selected as input variables of maximum entropy model based on the relative importance of those climate variables for predicting bamboo forest presence. The suitable ranges of the seven climatic variables for potential distribution of bamboo forest were 337-794 mm, 496-705 mm, 213-929 mm, 74.3%-83.4%, 16.6-23.8 °C, 2.3-10.1 °C and 3.2 × 104-4.3 × 104 W m-2, respectively. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the suitable area of bamboo forest growth first increased and then decreased, and showed range contractions towards the interior and expansions towards southwest in China. The results of the present study can serve as a useful reference to dynamic monitoring of the spatial distribution and sustainable utilization of bamboo forest in the future under climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-27

Lefebvre G, Redmond L, Germain C, et al (2019)

Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin.

The Science of the total environment, 692:546-555 pii:S0048-9697(19)33377-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressors.

RevDate: 2019-07-27

Sato T, T Nakamura (2019)

Intensification of hot Eurasian summers by climate change and land-atmosphere interactions.

Scientific reports, 9(1):10866 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-47291-5.

Persistent abnormal hot weather can cause considerable damage to human society and natural environments. In northern Eurasia, the recent change in summer surface air temperature exhibits a heterogeneous pattern with accelerated warming around the Eastern European Plain and Central Siberia, forming a wave train-like structure. However, the key factors that determine the magnitude and spatial distribution of this summer temperature trend remain unclear. Here, a huge ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations show that the recent summer temperature trend has been intensified by two factors: steady warming induced by external forcing and inhomogeneous warming induced by internal atmosphere-land interactions that amplify quasi-stationary waves. The latter is sensitive to both snow cover and soil moisture anomalies in the spring, suggesting the potential of land surface monitoring for better seasonal prediction of summer temperatures. Dramatic changes in the circumpolar environment, characterised by Eurasian snow variation and Arctic Ocean warming, collectively affect summertime climate via memory effects of the land surface.

RevDate: 2019-07-27

Baltar F, Bayer B, Bednarsek N, et al (2019)

Towards Integrating Evolution, Metabolism, and Climate Change Studies of Marine Ecosystems.

Trends in ecology & evolution pii:S0169-5347(19)30193-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Global environmental changes are challenging the structure and functioning of ecosystems. However, a mechanistic understanding of how global environmental changes will affect ecosystems is still lacking. The complex and interacting biological and physical processes spanning vast temporal and spatial scales that constitute an ecosystem make this a formidable problem. A unifying framework based on ecological theory, that considers fundamental and realized niches, combined with metabolic, evolutionary, and climate change studies, is needed to provide the mechanistic understanding required to evaluate and forecast the future of marine communities, ecosystems, and their services.

RevDate: 2019-07-26

Palinkas LA, M Wong (2019)

Global climate change and mental health.

Current opinion in psychology, 32:12-16 pii:S2352-250X(19)30066-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Although several empirical studies and systematic reviews have documented the mental health impacts of global climate change, the range of impacts has not been well understood. This review examines mental health impacts of three types of climate-related events: (1) acute events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires; (2) subacute or long-term changes such as drought and heat stress; and (3) the existential threat of long-lasting changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels and a permanently altered and potentially uninhabitable physical environment. The impacts represent both direct (i.e. heat stress) and indirect (i.e. economic loss, threats to health and well-being, displacement and forced migration, collective violence and civil conflict, and alienation from a degraded environment) consequences of global climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-26

Storz MA (2019)

Medical Conferences and Climate Change Mitigation: Challenges, Opportunities and Omissions.

Journal of occupational and environmental medicine [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-07-26

Kline R, Seltzer N, Lukinova E, et al (2018)

Differentiated responsibilities and prosocial behaviour in climate change mitigation.

Nature human behaviour, 2(9):653-661.

A characteristic feature of the global climate change dilemma is interdependence between the underlying economic development that drives anthropogenic climate change-typically modelled as a common pool resource dilemma1,2-and the subsequent dilemma arising from the need to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, often modelled as a public goods dilemma3,4. In other words, in a carbon-based economy, causal responsibility for climate change is a byproduct of economic development, and is therefore endogenous to it. To capture this endogeneity, we combine these two dilemmas into a 'compound climate dilemma' and conduct a series of incentivized experiments in the United States and China to test its implications for cooperation and prosocial behaviour. Here we show that, in a differentiated development condition, even while the advantaged parties increase their prosociality relative to an endogenous but homogeneous baseline condition, the accompanying decrease in cooperative behaviour by the disadvantaged parties more than offsets it. Furthermore, compared with exogenous but identically parameterized control conditions, this endogeneity decreases cooperation in the mitigation dilemma. In light of this interdependence, the basis upon which mitigation obligations should be differentiated becomes an additional dimension of conflict, with implications for domestic politics and international negotiations discussed5,6.

RevDate: 2019-07-26

Verheecke-Vaessen C, Diez-Gutierrez L, Renaud J, et al (2019)

Interacting climate change environmental factors effects on Fusarium langsethiae growth, expression of Tri genes and T-2/HT-2 mycotoxin production on oat-based media and in stored oats.

Fungal biology, 123(8):618-624.

This study examined the effect of climate change (CC) abiotic factors of temperature (20, 25, 30 °C), water activity (aw; 0.995, 0.98) and CO2 exposure (400, 1000 ppm) may have on (a) growth, (b) gene expression of biosynthetic toxin genes (Tri5, Tri6, Tri16), and (c) T-2/HT-2 toxins and associated metabolites by Fusarium langsethiae on oat-based media and in stored oats. Lag phases and growth were optimum at 25 °C with freely available water. This was significantly reduced at 30 °C, at 0.98 aw and 1000 ppm CO2 exposure. In oat-based media and stored oats, Tri5 gene expression was reduced in all conditions except 30 °C, 0.98 aw, elevated CO2 where there was a significant (5.3-fold) increase. The Tri6 and Tri16 genes were upregulated, especially in elevated CO2 conditions. Toxin production was higher at 25 °C than 30 °C. In stored oats, at 0.98 aw, elevated CO2 led to a significant increase (73-fold) increase in T2/HT-2 toxin, especially at 30 °C. Nine T-2 and HT-2 related metabolites were detected, including a new dehydro T-2 toxin (which correlated with T-2 production) and the conjugate, HT-2 toxin, glucuronide. This shows that CC factors may have a significant impact on growth and mycotoxin production by F. langsethiae.

RevDate: 2019-07-25

O'Neill EA, Rowan NJ, AM Fogarty (2019)

Novel use of the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, as an early-warning indicator to identify climate change ambiguity in aquatic environments using freshwater finfish farming as a case study.

The Science of the total environment, 692:209-218 pii:S0048-9697(19)33357-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Aquaculture is one of the fastest growing food producing industries in the world. This dramatic increase in growth has raised many environmental concerns. Evaluation of fish farm effluent is frequently assessed by physicochemical parameters. This approach indicates potential degradation caused by the effluent and not cumulative effects on aquatic ecosystems. This study investigated relationships between physicochemical parameters (temperature, pH, conductivity, nitrogen, phosphorus, oxygen and suspended solids), typically used to assess water quality with the Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata algal bioassay, which evaluated the potential ecotoxicological effects that freshwater fish farm effluent has on its receiving ecosystems and organisms. Influent and effluent samples were collected from a freshwater farm facility every two weeks from April 2018 to October 2018 in the Republic of Ireland. This monitoring period coincided with one of the warmest and driest periods recorded by meteorological stations in the Republic of Ireland. Physicochemical analyses were found to be similar to those in other farm studies. After exposure of algae to the effluent, stimulation of algal growth rates increased by >50%. This stimulation was observed during periods of increased temperatures which were as a result of heat wave and drought conditions experienced during monitoring. Correlation studies identified a moderately strong relationship between algal stimulation and temperature (r = -0.619). This study discovered that removal of Lemna minor (aquatic plant), impacted strongly on the freshwater farm pond-process to cope with nitrates. The constructed wetland system was unable to efficiently treat nitrates and phosphates during conditions of drought. These findings indicate that standard water quality parameters may not be applicable to inform appropriate suitability of fish farm effluent for discharge to receiving water. The research conducted in this study has suggested a potential toolbox that includes P. subcapitata may provide an early warning system for adverse effects as a result of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-25

Iltis C, Louâpre P, Pecharová K, et al (2019)

Are life-history traits equally affected by global warming? A case study combining a multi-trait approach with fine-grain climate modeling.

Journal of insect physiology pii:S0022-1910(19)30043-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Predicting species responses to climate change requires tracking the variation in individual performance following exposure to warming conditions. One ecologically relevant approach consists of examining the thermal responses of a large number of traits, both related with population dynamics and trophic interactions (i.e. a multi-trait approach). Based on in situ climatic data and projections from climate models, we here designed two daily fluctuating thermal regimes realistically reflecting current and future conditions in Eastern France. These models detected an increase in mean temperature and in the range of daily thermal fluctuations as two local facets of global warming likely to occur in our study area by the end of this century. We then examined the responses of several fitness-related traits in caterpillars of the moth Lobesia botrana - including development, pupal mass, survival rates, energetic reserves, behavioral and immune traits expressed against parasitoids - to this experimental imitation of global warming. Increasing temperatures positively affected development (leading to a 31% reduction in the time needed to complete larval stage), survival rates (+19%), and movement speed as a surrogate for larval escape ability to natural enemies (+60%). Conversely, warming elicited detrimental effects on lipid reserves (-26%) and immunity (total phenoloxidase activity: -34%). These findings confirm that traits should differ in their sensitivity to global warming, underlying complex consequences for population dynamics and trophic interactions. Our study strengthens the importance of combining a multi-trait approach with the use of realistic fluctuating regimes to forecast the consequences of global warming for individuals, species and species assemblages.

RevDate: 2019-07-25

Goode AG, Steneck RS, Wahle RA, et al (2019)

The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, concerns are growing as monitored shallow water young-of-year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast that the regional maritime economies will suffer. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally-stratified surface water in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth-wise temperature gradient caused thermally-suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally-suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life-stage-specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-25

Aguilera-Molina VM, Munguía-Ortega KK, López-Reyes E, et al (2019)

Climate change and forest plagues: assessing current and future impacts of diprionid sawflies on the pine forests of north-western Mexico.

PeerJ, 7:e7220 pii:7220.

The imminent threat of climate change lies in its potential to disrupt the balance of ecosystems, particularly vulnerable areas such as mountain-top remnant forests. An example of such a fragile ecosystem is the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM) National Park of Mexico's Baja California state, where high levels of endemism can be found, and which is home to one of the country's few populations of the emblematic Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi). Recent outbreaks of pine-feeding sawfly larvae in SSPM increase the vulnerability of this forest ecosystem, calling for immediate assessments of the severity of this threat. Here, we present a thorough study of the sawfly's biology and distribution, carrying out molecular and morphology-based identification of the species and creating model-based predictions of the species distribution in the area. The sawfly was found to belong to an undescribed species of the genus Zadiprion (family Diprionidae) with a one-year life-cycle. The distribution of this species appears to be restricted to the SSPM national park and it will probably persist for at least another 50 years, even considering the effects of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-25

Chua PL, Dorotan MM, Sigua JA, et al (2019)

Scoping Review of Climate Change and Health Research in the Philippines: A Complementary Tool in Research Agenda-Setting.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(14): pii:ijerph16142624.

The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.

RevDate: 2019-07-24

Radchuk V, Reed T, Teplitsky C, et al (2019)

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient.

Nature communications, 10(1):3109 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4.

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

RevDate: 2019-07-24

Casadevall A, Kontoyiannis DP, V Robert (2019)

On the Emergence of Candida auris: Climate Change, Azoles, Swamps, and Birds.

mBio, 10(4): pii:mBio.01397-19.

The most enigmatic aspect of the rise of Candida auris as a human pathogen is that it emerged simultaneously on three continents, with each clade being genetically distinct. Although new pathogenic fungal species are described regularly, these are mostly species associated with single cases in individuals who are immunosuppressed. In this study, we used phylogenetic analysis to compare the temperature susceptibility of C. auris with those of its close relatives and to use these results to argue that it may be the first example of a new fungal disease emerging from climate change, with the caveat that many other factors may have contributed.

RevDate: 2019-07-23

McCauley LA, Robles MD, Woolley T, et al (2019)

Large-scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest U.S.

Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America [Epub ahead of print].

Higher tree density, more fuels, and a warmer, drier climate have caused an increase in the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests. There is an urgent need to restore forests across the western U.S. To address this need, the U.S. Forest Service began the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) to restore four national forests in Arizona. The objective of this study was to evaluate how restoration of ~400,000 ha under the 4FRI program and projected climate change would influence carbon dynamics and wildfire severity from 2010 to 2099. Specifically, we estimated forest carbon fluxes, carbon pools and wildfire severity under a moderate and fast 4FRI implementation schedule and compared those to status quo and no harvest scenarios using the LANDIS-II simulation model and climate change projections. We found that the fast-4FRI scenario showed early decreases in ecosystem carbon due to initial thinning/prescribed fire treatments, but total ecosystem carbon increased by 9 - 16% over no harvest by the end of the simulation. This increased carbon storage by 6.3 - 12.7 million metric tons, depending on the climate model, equating to removal of carbon emissions from 55,000 - 110,000 passenger vehicles per year until the end of the century. Nearly half of the additional carbon was stored in more stable soil pools. However, climate models with the largest predicted temperature increases showed declines by late century in ecosystem carbon despite restoration. Our study uses data from a real-world, large-scale restoration project and indicates that restoration is likely to stabilize carbon and the benefits are greater when the pace of restoration is faster. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-24

Yan SM, G Wu (2019)

Impact of Temperature on Influenza A Status during Global Warming Hiatus.

Biomedical and environmental sciences : BES, 32(7):554-557.

RevDate: 2019-07-22

Cheung C, Zhang H, Hepburn JC, et al (2019)

Stable isotope and dental caries data reveal abrupt changes in subsistence economy in ancient China in response to global climate change.

PloS one, 14(7):e0218943 pii:PONE-D-18-25664.

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat's emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4- based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500-4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre-to post-4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region.

RevDate: 2019-07-22

Han P, Lin X, Zhang W, et al (2019)

Projected changes of alpine grassland carbon dynamics in response to climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.

PloS one, 14(7):e0215261 pii:PONE-D-19-08652.

The Tibetan Plateau is an important component of the global carbon cycle due to the large permafrost carbon pool and its vulnerability to climate warming. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced a noticeable warming over the past few decades and is projected to continue warming in the future. However, the direction and magnitude of carbon fluxes responses to climate change and elevated CO2 concentration under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in the Tibetan Plateau grassland are poorly known. Here, we used a calibrated and validated biogeochemistry model, CENTURY, to quantify the contributions of climate change and elevated CO2 on the future carbon budget in the alpine grassland under three RCP scenarios. Though the Tibetan Plateau grassland was projected a net carbon sink of 16 ~ 25 Tg C yr-1 in the 21st century, the capacity of carbon sequestration was predicted to decrease gradually because climate-driven increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (with linear slopes 0.49 ~ 1.62 g C m-2 yr-1) was greater than the net primary production (NPP) (0.35 ~ 1.52 g C m-2 yr-1). However, the elevated CO2 contributed more to plant growth (1.9% ~ 7.3%) than decomposition (1.7% ~ 6.1%), which could offset the warming-induced carbon loss. The interannual and decadal-scale dynamics of the carbon fluxes in the alpine grassland were primarily controlled by temperature, while the role of precipitation became increasingly important in modulating carbon cycle. The strengthened correlation between precipitation and carbon budget suggested that further research should consider the performance of precipitation in evaluating carbon dynamics in a warmer climate scenario.

RevDate: 2019-07-21

Graham H, de Bell S, Hanley N, et al (2019)

Willingness to pay for policies to reduce future deaths from climate change: evidence from a British survey.

Public health, 174:110-117 pii:S0033-3506(19)30191-X [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: Without urgent action, climate change will put the health of future populations at risk. Policies to reduce these risks require support from today's populations; however, there are few studies assessing public support for such policies. Willingness to pay (WtP), a measure of the maximum a person is prepared to pay for a defined benefit, is widely used to assess public support for policies. We used WtP to investigate whether there is public support to reduce future health risks from climate change and if individual and contextual factors affect WtP, including perceptions of the seriousness of the impacts of climate change.

STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional British survey.

METHODS: Questions about people's WtP for policies to reduce future climate change-related deaths and their perceptions of the seriousness of climate change impacts were included in a British survey of adults aged 16 years and over (n=1859). We used contingent valuation, a survey-based method for eliciting WtP for outcomes like health which do not have a direct market value.

RESULTS: The majority (61%) were willing to pay to reduce future increases in climate change-related deaths in Britain. Those regarding climate change impacts as not at all serious were less willing to pay than those regarding the impacts as extremely serious (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.02-0.09). Income was also related to WtP; the highest-income group were twice as likely to be willing to pay as the lowest-income group (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.40-3.29).

CONCLUSIONS: There was public support for policies to address future health impacts of climate change; the level of support varied with people's perceptions of the seriousness of these impacts and their financial circumstances. Our study adds to evidence that health, including the health of future populations, is an outcome that people value and suggests that framing climate change around such values may help to accelerate action.

RevDate: 2019-07-21

Xu T, Li K, Engel BA, et al (2019)

Optimal adaptation pathway for sustainable low impact development planning under deep uncertainty of climate change: A greedy strategy.

Journal of environmental management, 248:109280 pii:S0301-4797(19)30982-X [Epub ahead of print].

Robustness and cost effectiveness are major concerns for sustainable stormwater management under deep uncertainty of climate change. Given that many traditional static planning strategies are not working with unpredictable future conditions, the possibility of system failure, and the lock-in effects, the Adaptation Pathway (AP) approach was adopted for dynamically robust and cost-effective planning in this paper. In order to increase optimization accuracy of multi-staged planning, a continuous definition of the AP optimization problem was raised by improving the simplified versions in existing studies. A case study in Suzhou, a provincial pilot Sponge City in China undergoing increasing annual rainfall and severe water environment deterioration, was included by integrating Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development model with optimization methods, aiming to persistently control the non-point source total phosphorus loading below an acceptable amount in the following unforeseen 20 years via multi-staged low-impact development (LID) construction. A novel optimization method developed by the authors in a companion paper, namely marginal-cost-based greedy strategy (MCGS), was successfully applied to efficiently solve the continuous version of the AP optimization problem. The popular genetic algorithm (GA) was used as a contrast. A weather generator was elaborated based on four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and 17 spatial downscaled general circulation models to simulate the unforeseen future annual rainfalls that helped with evaluating cost effectiveness of each prospective LID plan. Results showed that the adaptation pathways optimized by MCGS could save the whole life net present cost of an LID plan by 1%-60% compared with those optimized by GA, and the computational efficiency of MCGS was over 13 times faster than GA.

RevDate: 2019-07-21

Beach RH, Sulser TB, Crimmins A, et al (2019)

Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(7):e307-e317.

BACKGROUND: Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050.

METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability.

FINDINGS: Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4·1%, iron of 2·8%, and zinc of 2·5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2·9%, iron of 3·9%, and zinc of 3·4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19·5% for protein, 14·4% for iron, and 14·6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected.

INTERPRETATION: This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO2, which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies.

FUNDING: US Environmental Protection Agency, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CIGAR) Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM), and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change and Food Security (CCAFS).

RevDate: 2019-07-21

Ebi KL, I Loladze (2019)

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate change will affect our food's quality and quantity.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(7):e283-e284.

RevDate: 2019-07-21

Liu T, W Ma (2019)

Climate change and health: more research on adaptation is needed.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 3(7):e281-e282.

RevDate: 2019-07-20

Jones B (2019)

Doctors sign open letter demanding government action on climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 366:l4696.

RevDate: 2019-07-19

Onozuka D, Gasparrini A, Sera F, et al (2019)

Modeling Future Projections of Temperature-Related Excess Morbidity due to Infectious Gastroenteritis under Climate Change Conditions in Japan.

Environmental health perspectives, 127(7):77006.

BACKGROUND: Climate change has marked implications for the burden of infectious diseases. However, no studies have estimated future projections of climate change-related excess morbidity due to diarrhea according to climate change scenarios.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine temperature-infectious gastroenteritis associations throughout Japan and project temperature-related morbidity concomitant with climate change for the 2090s.

METHODS: Weekly time series of average temperature and morbidity for infectious gastroenteritis cases in the period 2005-2015 were collated from the 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series analysis was adopted to estimate temperature-infectious gastroenteritis relationships. Time series of present and future average daily temperature fluctuations were projected for the four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) according to five general circulation models. Excess morbidity for high and low temperatures and the net change in the period 1990-2099 were projected for each climate change scenario by assuming the absence of adaptation and population alterations.

RESULTS: In the period 2005-2015, 11,529,833 infectious gastroenteritis cases were reported. There were net reductions in temperature-induced excess morbidity under higher emission scenarios. The net change in the projection period 2090-2099 in comparison with 2010-2019 was [Formula: see text] (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: [Formula: see text], 0.5) for RCP2.6, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP4.5, [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP6.0, and [Formula: see text] (95% eCI: [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) for RCP8.5, and the higher the emissions scenario, the larger the estimates reductions. Spatial heterogeneity in the temperature-morbidity relationship was observed among prefectures (Cochran Q test, [Formula: see text]; [Formula: see text]).

CONCLUSIONS: Japan may experience a net reduction in temperature-related excess morbidity due to infectious gastroenteritis in higher emission scenarios. These results might be because the majority of temperature-related diarrhea cases in Japan are attributable to viral infections during the winter season. Further projections of specific pathogen-induced infectious gastroenteritis due to climate change are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4731.

RevDate: 2019-07-18

Morton S, Pencheon D, G Bickler (2019)

The sustainable development goals provide an important framework for addressing dangerous climate change and achieving wider public health benefits.

Public health, 174:65-68 pii:S0033-3506(19)30165-9 [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: To suggest how public health systems and the health sector can utilise the United Nation (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) to address climate change and other threats to future health and deliver immediate public health benefits.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined UN and World Health Organisation guidance on SDGs and other published texts on systems thinking, integration, universality and co-benefits.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The UN SDGs are a set of globally agreed objectives to end poverty, protect all that makes the planet habitable and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. The SDGs integrate the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, environmental and social), they apply to high-income countries as well as developing countries and there are mechanisms to hold countries to account. There are three crucial issues for public health. First, a systems approach to future proof health and social justice. Second, an evidence-based approach to aid communication, framing and engagement. And, third, the importance of interventions that deliver health co-benefits (i.e. both immediate and long-term benefits to health, equity and prosperity). The SDGs present public health professionals with an important opportunity to create the right conditions for a better future through the organised efforts of society.

RevDate: 2019-07-18

Diele-Viegas LM, Werneck FP, CFD Rocha (2019)

Climate change effects on population dynamics of three species of Amazonian lizards.

Comparative biochemistry and physiology. Part A, Molecular & integrative physiology pii:S1095-6433(19)30294-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The scarcity of data on natural history and ecology of lizards still limits the understanding of population dynamics for many species. We attempt to evaluate possible effects of climate change on the population dynamics of three lizard species (Ameiva ameiva, Gonatodes humeralis and Norops fuscoauratus) in two Amazonian localities (Caxiuanã National Forest and Ducke Reserve). We calculated a tolerance index combining environmental thermal adequacy with the b-d model, which consider survival and reproductive rates to calculate population dynamics. Thus, we simulated population growth rates based on current and future environmental operative temperatures, considering an optimistic and a business-as-usual scenario of greenhouse gases emissions (GGE), and evaluate if the sensitivity of life history traits to population growth rate are likely to be trigged by climate change. Our results demonstrated that both populations of G. humeralis and the Ducke population of N. fuscoauratus may become locally extinct under both scenarios of GGE, while both populations of A. ameiva are likely to decrease, but without reaching a scenario of local extirpation. This study represents the first effort to evaluate the sensitivity of lizard populations and elasticity to climate change and demonstrate the geographic variability of these traits in three widespread and habitat-generalist species. We highlight the need of new studies focusing on species with different biological trait patterns, such as endemic distributions and habitat-specialists, to provide the theoretical and empirical basis for biologically informed conservation strategies and actions, in order to minimize the potential extinction of populations due to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-07-18

Schnitter R, P Berry (2019)

The Climate Change, Food Security and Human Health Nexus in Canada: A Framework to Protect Population Health.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(14): pii:ijerph16142531.

Climate change impacts on the Canadian food system pose risks to human health. Little attention has been paid to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus, resulting in a number of knowledge gaps regarding food system components that are most vulnerable to climate change. The lack of understanding of key dynamics and possible future impacts challenges the ability of public health officials and partners in other sectors to prepare Canadians for future health risks. A series of literature reviews were conducted to establish the relationship between climate change, food security, and human health, and to identify vulnerabilities within the Canadian food system. Evidence suggests that key activities within the food system are vulnerable to climate change. The pathways in which climate change impacts travel through the food system and affect the critical dimensions of food security to influence human health outcomes are complex. Climate-related disruptions in the food system can indirectly impact human health by diminishing food security, which is a key determinant of health. Human health may also be directly affected by the physical effects of climate change on the food system, primarily related to the impacts on nutrition and foodborne illnesses. In this study, we propose a novel analytical framework to study and respond to the climate change, food security, and human health nexus. This work is intended to help public health officials, researchers, and relevant stakeholders investigate and understand current and future risks, and inform adaptation efforts to protect the health of Canadians.

RevDate: 2019-07-17

Crombé P (2019)

Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe): Hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene.

PloS one, 14(7):e0219094 pii:PONE-D-19-06264.

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Chen C, Harvey JA, Biere A, et al (2019)

Rain downpours affect survival and development of insect herbivores: the specter of climate change?.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of rainfall events are among the abiotic effects predicted under anthropogenic global warming. Heavy downpours may profoundly affect the development and survival of small organisms such as insects. Here, we examined direct (physically on the insects) and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of simulated downpours on the performance of caterpillars of two lepidopteran herbivores (Plutella xylostella and Pieris brassicae) feeding on black mustard (Brassica nigra) plants. Host plants were exposed to different rainfall regimes both before and while caterpillars were feeding on the plants in an attempt to separate direct and indirect (plant-mediated) effects of rainfall on insect survival and development. In two independent experiments, downpours were simulated as a single long (20 min) or as three short (5 min) daily events. Downpours had a strong negative direct effect on the survival of P. xylostella, but not on that of P. brassicae. Direct effects of downpours consistently increased development time of both herbivore species, whereas effects on body mass depended on herbivore species and downpour frequency. Caterpillar disturbance by rain and recorded microclimatic cooling by 5 °C may explain extended immature development. Indirect, plant-mediated effects of downpours on the herbivores were generally small, despite the fact that sugar concentrations were reduced and herbivore induction of secondary metabolites (glucosinolates) was enhanced in plants exposed to rain. Changes in the frequency of precipitation events due to climate change may impact the survival and development of insect herbivores differentially. Broader effects of downpours on insects and other arthropods up the food chain could seriously impair and disrupt trophic interactions, ultimately destabilizing communities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Correa-Lima APA, Varassin IG, Barve N, et al (2019)

Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

Annals of botany pii:5532755 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUNDS AND AIMS: Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant-pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants.

METHODS: We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

KEY RESULTS: Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Jakoby O, Lischke H, B Wermelinger (2019)

Climate change alters elevational phenology patterns of the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus).

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is the most important insect pest in Central European forests. Under climate change, its phenology is presumed to be changing and mass infestations becoming more likely. While several studies have investigated climate effects across a latitudinal gradient, it remains an open question how phenology will change depending on elevation and topology. Knowing how an altered climate is likely to affect bark beetle populations, particularly across diverse topographies and elevations, is essential for adaptive management. We developed a time-varying distributed delay model to predict the phenology of I. typographus. This approach has the particular advantage of capturing the variability within populations and thus representing its stage structure at any time. The model is applied for three regional climate change scenarios, A1B, A2 and RCP3PD, to the diverse topography of Switzerland, covering a large range of elevations, aspects and slopes. We found a strong negative relationship between voltinism and elevation. Under climate change, the model predicts an increasing number of generations over the whole elevational gradient, which will be more pronounced at low elevations. In contrast, the pre-shift in spring swarming is expected to be greater at higher elevations. In comparison, the general trend of faster beetle development on steep southern slopes is only of minor importance. Overall, the maximum elevation allowing a complete yearly generation will move upwards. Generally, the predicted increase in number of generations, earlier spring swarming, more aggregated swarming, together with a projected increase in drought and storm events, will result in a higher risk of mass infestations. This will increase the pressure on spruce stands particularly in the lowlands and require intensified management efforts. It calls for adapted long-term silvicultural strategies to mitigate the loss of ecosystem services such as timber production, protection against rockfall and avalanches, and carbon storage. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-07-16

Chakwizira J (2019)

Rural transport and climate change in South Africa: Converting constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(3):718 pii:JAMBA-11-718.

This study explored the implications of climate change for rural transport in South Africa. The article was seeking to convert existing rural transport adaptation constraints into rural transport adaptation opportunities. Challenges and constraints to rural transport adaptation transitions were also explored. The research methodology adopted was a review of the literature and references to case study examples. Then a four-stage multi-analytical approach was used to unravel and decode the major rural transport and climate change issues in South Africa. Consequent to the analysis, a framework of analysis for strongly integrating climate change to rural transport interventions was advanced. The findings indicated the existing rural transport adaptation measures and options in South Africa. The article concludes by highlighting the complexity and intricate dynamic nature of interactions, networks and systems that impact rural South Africa. Recommendations revolve around properly situating rural transport and climate change within the wider rural development challenges and matters facing contemporary South Africa.

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ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
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Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).

Timelines

ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.

Biographies

Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )