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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 18 Apr 2021 at 01:44 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

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RevDate: 2021-04-17

Kumar M, Ratwan P, Dahiya SP, et al (2021)

Climate change and heat stress: Impact on production, reproduction and growth performance of poultry and its mitigation using genetic strategies.

Journal of thermal biology, 97:102867.

Heat stress is an important environmental determinant which adversely affects the performance of poultry worldwide. The present communication reviews the impact of heat stress on production, reproduction and growth performance of poultry, and its alleviation using genetic strategies. The adverse effects of high environmental temperature on poultry include decrease in growth rate, body weight, egg production, egg weight, egg quality, meat quality, semen quality, fertility and hatchability, which cause vast financial losses to the poultry industry. High ambient temperature has an antagonistic effect on performance traits of the poultry. Thus, selection of birds for high performance has increased their susceptibility to heat stress. Additionally, heat burden during transportation of birds from one place to another leads to reduced meat quality, increased mortality and welfare issues. Molecular markers are being explored nowadays to recognize the potential candidate genes related to production, reproduction and growth traits for selecting poultry birds to enhance thermo-tolerance and resistance against diseases. In conclusion, there is a critical need of formulating selection strategies based on genetic markers and exploring more genes in addition to HSP25, 70, 90, H1, RB1CC, BAG3, PDK, ID1, Na, F, dw and K responsible for thermoregulation, to improve the overall performance of poultry along with their ability to tolerate heat stress conditions.

RevDate: 2021-04-17

Taylor NAS, Lee JY, Kim S, et al (2021)

Physiological interactions with personal-protective clothing, physically demanding work and global warming: An Asia-Pacific perspective.

Journal of thermal biology, 97:102858.

The Asia-Pacific contains over half of the world's population, 21 countries have a Gross Domestic Product <25% of the world's largest economy, many countries have tropical climates and all suffer the impact of global warming. That 'perfect storm' exacerbates the risk of occupational heat illness, yet first responders must perform physically demanding work wearing personal-protective clothing and equipment. Unfortunately, the Eurocentric emphasis of past research has sometimes reduced its applicability to other ethnic groups. To redress that imbalance, relevant contemporary research has been reviewed, to which has been added information applicable to people of Asian, Melanesian and Polynesian ancestry. An epidemiological triad is used to identify the causal agents and host factors of work intolerance within hot-humid climates, commencing with the size dependency of resting metabolism and heat production accompanying load carriage, followed by a progression from the impact of single-layered clothing through to encapsulating ensembles. A morphological hypothesis is presented to account for inter-individual differences in heat production and heat loss, which seems to explain apparent ethnic- and gender-related differences in thermoregulation, at least within thermally compensable states. The mechanisms underlying work intolerance, cardiovascular insufficiency and heat illness are reviewed, along with epidemiological data from the Asia-Pacific. Finally, evidence-based preventative and treatment strategies are presented and updated concerning moisture-management fabrics and barriers, dehydration, pre- and post-exercise cooling, and heat adaptation. An extensive reference list is provided, with >25 recommendations enabling physiologists, occupational health specialists, policy makers, purchasing officers and manufacturers to rapidly extract interpretative outcomes pertinent to the Asia-Pacific.

RevDate: 2021-04-16

Zwerschke N, Morley SA, Peck LS, et al (2021)

Can Antarctica's shallow zoobenthos 'bounce back' from iceberg scouring impacts driven by climate change?.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

All coastal systems experience disturbances and many across the planet are under unprecedented threat from an intensification of a variety of stressors. The West Antarctic Peninsula is a hotspot of physical climate change and has experienced a dramatic loss of sea-ice and glaciers in recent years. Among other things, sea-ice immobilizes icebergs, reducing collisions between icebergs and the seabed, thus decreasing ice-scouring. Ice disturbance drives patchiness in successional stages across seabed assemblages in Antarctica's shallows, making this an ideal system to understand the ecosystem resilience to increasing disturbance with climate change. We monitored a shallow benthic ecosystem before, during and after a 3-year pulse of catastrophic ice-scouring events and show that such systems can return, or bounce back, to previous states within 10 years. Our long-term data series show that recovery can happen more rapidly than expected, when disturbances abate, even in highly sensitive cold, polar environments.

RevDate: 2021-04-16

Nam KJ, Li Q, Heo SK, et al (2021)

Inter-regional multimedia fate analysis of PAHs and potential risk assessment by integrating deep learning and climate change scenarios.

Journal of hazardous materials, 411:125149.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are hazardous compounds associated with respiratory disease and lung cancer. Increasing fossil fuel consumption, which causes climate change, has accelerated the emissions of PAHs. However, potential risks by PAHs have not been predicted for Korea, and appropriate PAH regulations under climate change have yet to be developed. This study assesses the potential risks posed by PAHs using climate change scenarios based on deep learning, and a multimedia fugacity model was employed to describe the future fate of PAHs. The multimedia fugacity model describes the dynamics of sixteen PAHs by reflecting inter-regional meteorological transportation. A deep neural network predicts future environmental and economic conditions, and the potential risks posed by PAHs, in the year 2050, using a prediction model and climate change scenarios. The assessment indicates that cancer risks would increase by more than 50%, exceeding the lower risk threshold in the southern and western regions. A mix of strategies for developing PAH regulatory policies highlighted the necessity of increasing PAHs monitoring stations and controlling fossil fuel usage based on the domestic and global conditions under climate change scenarios.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Middleton J, Cunsolo A, Pollock N, et al (2021)

Temperature and place associations with Inuit mental health in the context of climate change.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(21)00460-6 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: Climate change has important implications for mental health globally. Yet, few studies have quantified the magnitude and direction of associations between weather and mental health-related factors, or assessed the geographical distribution of associations, particularly in areas experiencing rapid climatic change. This study examined the associations between air temperature variables and mental health-related community clinic visits across Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, and the place-specific attributes of these associations.

METHODS: Daily de-identified community clinic visit data were collected from the provincial electronic health recording system and linked to historical weather data (2012-2018). A multilevel, multivariable negative binomial regression model was fit to investigate associations between temperature variables and mental health-related community clinic visits across the region, adjusting for seasonality as a fixed effect and community as a random effect. A multivariable negative binomial model was then fit for each Nunatsiavut community, adjusting for seasonality.

RESULTS: Mental health-related visits contributed to 2.4% of all 228,104 visit types across the study period; this proportion ranged from 0.6% to 11.3% based on community and year. Regionally, the incidence rate of mental health-related community clinic visits was greater after two weeks of warm average (i.e. above -5ᵒC) temperatures compared to temperatures below -5ᵒC (IRR-5≤5ᵒC =1.47, 95% CI =1.21-1.78; IRR6≤15ᵒC =2.24, 95% CI =1.66-3.03; IRR>15ᵒC =1.73, 95% CI =1.02-2.94), and the incidence rate of mental health-related clinic visits was lower when the number of consecutive days within -5 to 5ᵒC ranges (i.e. temperatures considered to be critical to land use) increased (IRR = 0.96; 95% CI =0.94-0.99), adjusting for seasonal and community effects. Community-specific models, however, revealed that no two communities had the same association between meteorological conditions and the incidence rate of daily mental health-related visits.

DISCUSSION: Regionally, longer periods of warm temperatures may burden existing healthcare resources and shorter periods of temperatures critical to land use (i.e. -5 to 5ᵒC) may present enjoyable or opportunistic conditions to access community and land-based resources. The heterogeneity found in temperature and mental health-related clinic visits associations across Nunatsiavut communities demonstrates that place quantitatively matters in the context of Inuit mental health and climate change. This evidence underscores the importance of place-based approaches to health policy, planning, adaptation, and research related to climate change, particularly in circumpolar regions such as Nunatsiavut where the rate of warming is one of the fastest on the planet.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Kidd SA, Hajat S, Bezgrebelna M, et al (2021)

The climate change-homelessness nexus.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(21)00834-5 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Scafuto F (2021)

Individual and social-psychological factors to explain climate change efficacy: The role of mindfulness, sense of global community, and egalitarianism.

Journal of community psychology [Epub ahead of print].

This article focused on the study of individual and social-psychological determinants of a sense of efficacy on climate change mitigation. A correlational study investigated the predictive role of mindfulness, egalitarianism, risk concern, knowledge, and psychological sense of global community (PSGC). An online survey was administrated to US College students (N = 277). The main predictors of climate change response efficacy (CCRE) were PSGC and egalitarianism, followed by risk concern and climate knowledge. Among the facets of mindfulness, observing, and describing were the only ones associated with CCRE. The results found that mindfulness observing predicted response efficacy both directly and through the mediation of risk concern and sense of global community. Conversely, egalitarianism was not a significant mediator. Community psychologists should promote a sense of belonging to all humanity, and a more egalitarian view of the world, beyond risk concern, to increase climate efficacy. Training the skill of mindfulness observing could be a way to produce a sense of global community and affect climate change efficacy.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Canfield KN, Mulvaney K, N Merrill (2021)

Messaging on Slow Impacts: Applying Lessons Learned from Climate Change Communication to Catalyze and Improve Marine Nutrient Communication.

Frontiers in environmental science, 9:.

Building publics' understanding about human-environmental causes and impacts of nutrient pollution is difficult due to the diverse sources and, at times, extended timescales of increasing inputs, consequences to ecosystems, and recovery after remediation. Communicating environmental problems with "slow impacts" has long been a challenge for scientists, public health officials, and science communicators, as the time delay for subsequent consequences to become evident dilutes the sense of urgency to act. Fortunately, scientific research and practice in the field of climate change communication has begun to identify best practices to address these challenges. Climate change demonstrates a delay between environmental stressor and impact, and recommended practices for climate change communication illustrate how to explain and motivate action around this complex environmental problem. Climate change communication research provides scientific understanding of how people evaluate risk and scientific information about climate change. We used a qualitative coding approach to review the science communication and climate change communication literature to identify approaches that could be used for nutrients and how they could be applied. Recognizing the differences between climate change and impacts of nutrient pollution, we also explore how environmental problems with delayed impacts demand nuanced strategies for effective communication and public engagement. Applying generalizable approaches to successfully communicate the slow impacts related to nutrient pollution across geographic contexts will help build publics' understanding and urgency to act on comprehensive management of nutrient pollution, thereby increasing protection of coastal and marine environments.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Tan Q, Liu Y, Dai L, et al (2021)

Shortened key growth periods of soybean observed in China under climate change.

Scientific reports, 11(1):8197.

Phenology is an important indicator of global climate change. Revealing the spatiotemporal characteristics of crop phenology is vital for ameliorating the adverse effects of climate change and guiding regional agricultural production. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal variability of soybean's phenological stages and key growth periods, and assessed their sensitivity to key climatic factors, utilizing a long-term dataset (1992-2018) of soybean phenology and associated meteorological data collected at 51 stations across China. The results showed that (1) during the soybean growing seasons from 1992 to 2018, the average temperature (0.34 ± 0.09 ℃ decade-1) and cumulative precipitation (6.66 ± 0.93 mm decade-1) increased, but cumulative sunshine hours (- 33.98 ± 1.05 h decade-1) decreased. (2) On a national scale, dates of sowing, emergence, trifoliate, anthesis, and podding of soybean were delayed, while the maturity date showed an advancing trend. The vegetative growth period (- 0.52 ± 0.24 days decade-1) and whole growth period (- 1.32 ± 0.30 days decade-1) of soybean were shortened, but the reproductive growth period (0.05 ± 0.26 days decade-1) was slightly extended. Trends in soybean phenological stages and key growth periods diverged in regions. Soybean phenological stages were delayed in Huang-Huai-Hai soybean zone, whereas advanced in southern soybean zone. Moreover, the key growth periods were greatly shortened in northern soybean zone. (3) In general, the sensitivity of soybean key growth periods to temperature was negative, whereas those to precipitation and sunshine hours differed among regions. In particular, most phenological stages were negatively sensitive to sunshine hours. Our results will provide scientific support for decision-making in agricultural production practices.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Chemura A, Mudereri BT, Yalew AW, et al (2021)

Climate change and specialty coffee potential in Ethiopia.

Scientific reports, 11(1):8097.

Current climate change impact studies on coffee have not considered impact on coffee typicities that depend on local microclimatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Thus, this study aims to provide a quantitative risk assessment of the impact of climate change on suitability of five premium specialty coffees in Ethiopia. We implement an ensemble model of three machine learning algorithms to predict current and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) suitability for each specialty coffee under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the importance of variables determining coffee suitability in the combined model is different from those for specialty coffees despite the climatic factors remaining more important in determining suitability than topographic and soil variables. Our model predicts that 27% of the country is generally suitable for coffee, and of this area, only up to 30% is suitable for specialty coffees. The impact modelling showed that the combined model projects a net gain in coffee production suitability under climate change in general but losses in five out of the six modelled specialty coffee growing areas. We conclude that depending on drivers of suitability and projected impacts, climate change will significantly affect the Ethiopian speciality coffee sector and area-specific adaptation measures are required to build resilience.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Romeu D (2021)

Is climate change a mental health crisis?.

BJPsych bulletin pii:S2056469421000309 [Epub ahead of print].

The Earth's climate is in a complex state of change as a result of human activity. The interface between climate change and physical health has received significant attention, but its effects on mental health and illness are less understood. This article provides an insight into the psychiatric sequelae of climate change, suggests strategies that psychiatrists can use to take action, and argues that it is their responsibility to do so.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Carroll C, JC Ray (2021)

Maximizing the effectiveness of national commitments to protected area expansion for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem carbon under climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally-significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently-developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Bai L, Tian J, Peng Y, et al (2021)

Effects of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in southern hills and northern grasslands in China.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

We investigated the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in two distinct ecosystems: the northern grasslands and southern hills in China. The effects of minimum, average, and maximum temperature, and precipitation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales on ecosystem services and their components were studied through stepwise multiple regression analysis. The results showed that in the northern grasslands, an increase in the total ecosystem services value (ESV) was mainly attributed to soil conservation, biodiversity, hydrological regulation, and aesthetic landscape. In the southern hills, an increase in total ESV in each region was mainly attributed to climate regulation, environmental purification, biodiversity, and aesthetic landscape. There were strong correlations between ESVs and fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In the northern grasslands, temperature was the main driving factor of the values from 11 categories of ecosystem services in Anxi, Tumuji, and Xilingol. However, in West Ordos, precipitation negatively affected the change in ESVs. In the southern hills, ESVs were governed by both precipitation and temperature in Huaying. Precipitation variables were an important factor affecting the ESVs in Cili. There was a stronger correlation between temperature and the majority of ESVs in Danjiangkou, Chongyi, and Lechang than precipitation. This paper provides a basis for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on different ecosystem services, and helps to enhance ESV under climate warming.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Karniski C (2021)

Climate change weakens the tie between weather and mast seeding.

Communications biology, 4(1):479.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Hamann E, Wadgymar SM, JT Anderson (2021)

Costs of reproduction under experimental climate change across elevations in the perennial forb Boechera stricta.

Proceedings. Biological sciences, 288(1948):20203134.

Investment in current reproduction can reduce future fitness by depleting resources needed for maintenance, particularly under environmental stress. These trade-offs influence life-history evolution. We tested whether climate change alters the future-fitness costs of current reproduction in a large-scale field experiment of Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). Over 6 years, we simulated climate change along an elevational gradient in the Rocky Mountains through snow removal, which accelerates snowmelt and reduces soil water availability. Costs of reproduction were greatest in arid, lower elevations, where high initial reproductive effort depressed future fitness. At mid-elevations, initial reproduction augmented subsequent fitness in benign conditions, but pronounced costs emerged under snow removal. At high elevation, snow removal dampened costs of reproduction by prolonging the growing season. In most scenarios, failed reproduction in response to resource limitation depressed lifetime fecundity. Indeed, fruit abortion only benefited high-fitness individuals under benign conditions. We propose that climate change could shift life-history trade-offs in an environment-dependent fashion, possibly favouring early reproduction and short lifespans in stressful conditions.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Bertucci JI, J Bellas (2021)

Combined effect of microplastics and global warming factors on early growth and development of the sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus).

The Science of the total environment, 782:146888 pii:S0048-9697(21)01958-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The aim of this work was to estimate the potential risk of the combined effect of global change factors (acidification, temperature increase) and microplastic (MP) pollution on the growth and development of the sea urchin P. lividus. Embryo-larval bioassays were conducted to determine growth and morphology after 48 h of incubation with MP (1000 and 3000 particles/mL); with filtered sea water at pH = 7.6; and with their combinations. A second experiment was conducted to study the effect of pH and MP in combination with a temperature increase of 4 °C compared to control (20 °C). We found that the inhibition of growth in embryos reared at pH = 7.6 was around 75%. Larvae incubated at 3000 MP particles/mL showed a 20% decrease in growth compared to controls. The exposure to MP also induced an increase in the postoral arm separation or rounded vertices. The combined exposure to a pH 7.6 and MP caused a significant decrease of larval growth compared to control, to MP and to pH 7.6 treatments. Morphological alterations were observed in these treatments, including the development of only two arms. Increasing the temperature resulted in an increased growth in control, in pH 7.6 and pH 7.6 + MP3000 treatments, but the relative stomach volume decreased. However, when growth parameters were expressed per Degree-Days the lower growth provoked by the thermal stress was evidenced in all treatments. In this work we demonstrated that MP could aggravate the effect of a decreased pH and that an increase in water temperature generated an additional stress on P. lividus larvae, manifested in a lower growth and an altered development. Therefore, the combined stress caused by ocean warming, ocean acidification, and microplastic pollution, could threaten sea urchin populations leading to a potential impact on coastal ecosystems.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Borg FH, Greibe Andersen J, Karekezi C, et al (2021)

Climate change and health in urban informal settlements in low- and middle-income countries - a scoping review of health impacts and adaptation strategies.

Global health action, 14(1):1908064.

Background: Climate change affects human health with those with the least resources being most vulnerable. However, little is known about the impact of climate change on human health and effective adaptation methods in informal settlements in low- and middle-income countries.Objective: The objective of this scoping review was to identify, characterize, and summarize research evidence on the impact of climate change on human health in informal settlements and the available adaptation methods and interventions.Method: A scoping review was conducted using the Arksey and O'Malley framework. The four bibliographic databases PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane library were searched. Eligibility criteria were all types of peer-reviewed publications reporting on climate change or related extreme weather events (as defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), informal settlements (as defined by UN-Habitat), low- and middle-income countries (as defined by the World Bank) and immediate human health impacts. Review selection and characterization were performed by two independent reviewers using a predefined form.Results: Out of 1197 studies initially identified, 15 articles were retained. We found nine original research articles, and six reviews, commentaries, and editorials. The articles were reporting on the exposures flooding, temperature changes and perceptions of climate change with health outcomes broadly categorized as mental health, communicable diseases, and non-communicable diseases. Six studies had a geographical focus on Asia, four on Africa, and one on South America, the remaining four articles had no geographical focus. One article investigated an adaptation method for heat exposure. Serval other adaptation methods were proposed, though they were not investigated by the articles in this review.Conclusion: There is a paucity of original research and solid study designs. Further studies are needed to improve the understanding of the impact, the most effective adaptation methods and to inform policy making.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Lobeto H, Menendez M, IJ Losada (2021)

Future behavior of wind wave extremes due to climate change.

Scientific reports, 11(1):7869.

Extreme waves will undergo changes in the future when exposed to different climate change scenarios. These changes are evaluated through the analysis of significant wave height (Hs) return values and are also compared with annual mean Hs projections. Hourly time series are analyzed through a seven-member ensemble of wave climate simulations and changes are estimated in Hs for return periods from 5 to 100 years by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Despite the underlying uncertainty that characterizes extremes, we obtain robust changes in extreme Hs over more than approximately 25% of the ocean surface. The results obtained conclude that increases cover wider areas and are larger in magnitude than decreases for higher return periods. The Southern Ocean is the region where the most robust increase in extreme Hs is projected, showing local increases of over 2 m regardless the analyzed return period under RCP8.5 scenario. On the contrary, the tropical north Pacific shows the most robust decrease in extreme Hs, with local decreases of over 1.5 m. Relevant divergences are found in several ocean regions between the projected behavior of mean and extreme wave conditions. For example, an increase in Hs return values and a decrease in annual mean Hs is found in the SE Indian, NW Atlantic and NE Pacific. Therefore, an extrapolation of the expected change in mean wave conditions to extremes in regions presenting such divergences should be adopted with caution, since it may lead to misinterpretation when used for the design of marine structures or in the evaluation of coastal flooding and erosion.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Ogega OM, M Alobo (2020)

Impact of 1.5 oC and 2 oC global warming scenarios on malaria transmission in East Africa.

AAS open research, 3:22.

Background: Malaria remains a global challenge with approximately 228 million cases and 405,000 malaria-related deaths reported in 2018 alone; 93% of which were in sub-Saharan Africa. Aware of the critical role than environmental factors play in malaria transmission, this study aimed at assessing the relationship between precipitation, temperature, and clinical malaria cases in East Africa and how the relationship may change under 1.5 oC and 2.0 oC global warming levels (hereinafter GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively). Methods: A correlation analysis was done to establish the current relationship between annual precipitation, mean temperature, and clinical malaria cases. Differences between annual precipitation and mean temperature value projections for periods 2008-2037 and 2023-2052 (corresponding to GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively), relative to the control period (1977-2005), were computed to determine how malaria transmission may change under the two global warming scenarios. Results: A predominantly positive/negative correlation between clinical malaria cases and temperature/precipitation was observed. Relative to the control period, no major significant changes in precipitation were shown in both warming scenarios. However, an increase in temperature of between 0.5 oC and 1.5 oC and 1.0 oC to 2.0 oC under GWL1.5 and GWL2.0, respectively, was recorded. Hence, more areas in East Africa are likely to be exposed to temperature thresholds favourable for increased malaria vector abundance and, hence, potentially intensify malaria transmission in the region. Conclusions: GWL1.5 and GWL2.0 scenarios are likely to intensify malaria transmission in East Africa. Ongoing interventions should, therefore, be intensified to sustain the gains made towards malaria elimination in East Africa in a warming climate.

RevDate: 2021-04-14
CmpDate: 2021-04-14

Palmeiro-Silva YK, Cifuentes LA, Cortés S, et al (2020)

[The threat of climate change on population health and the urgent need to act].

Revista medica de Chile, 148(11):1652-1658.

Climate change is associated with negative health outcomes, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. This article analyses the threat of climate change on population health and the urgent need to implement measures to avoid this damage. Heat vulnerability, heatwave exposures, and wildfire exposure to forest fires have increased in Chile. In 2018, the annual mean concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceeded the safe level proposed by the World Health Organization, increasing the risk of negative health outcomes. Thus, multidisciplinary and intersectoral mitigation and adaptation policies are needed. Among other elements, mental health impacts of climate change, health education provided by health workers to reduce negative health impacts of climate change, greater engagement of academia to generate evidence useful for policy-making processes and a better articulation between central and local governments should be considered. Finally, achieving a healthy population should be the aim of all these policies and efforts.

RevDate: 2021-04-11

Faisal M, Chunping X, Abbas A, et al (2021)

Do risk perceptions and constraints influence the adoption of climate change practices among small livestock herders in Punjab, Pakistan?.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is severely damaging the agricultural system of many food producing regions worldwide. Small/subsistent livestock herders are the most vulnerable and less resilient group towards climatic disasters within South Asian region including Pakistan. The adoption of climate-smart practices would be beneficial for small livestock herders because of its potential to ensure food security, improve income, and sustain development simultaneously. The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors influencing small livestock herders' adaptation decisions towards changing climate by conducting field-based research. We intend to understand how institutional factors, risk perceptions, adaptations, and personal constraints affect the adaptation decisions related to climate change mitigation and choice of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a primary data set of 405 small livestock herders from Punjab, Pakistan was used. The regression results of empirical models reveal the probability of adopting specific climate change strategies. The study results showed that zero adaptation (non-adoption) to climate change is higher when there is low literacy rate, less experience, nuclear family system, lack of institutional services, and low level of risk perception about climate change. The marginal outcome showed that the livestock herders with positive risk perception and access to the institutional services do participate more frequently in a higher number of adaptations options for economic and ecological benefits. Therefore, it is suggested that government and other development actors should strengthen institutions for trust building among local community groups and to reduce individuals' risks. Moreover, effective insurance schemes could facilitate small livestock herders to keep less but more productive livestock. The study recommends building viable and potential weather index insurance schemes which will result meaningful marginal scale benefits for smallholders. Finally, the results of major constraints suggest that it is necessary to provide awareness of climatic vulnerabilities, timely information delivery, and adequate financial facilities to offset resource constraints of livestock herders in order to adopt sustainable strategies at their farms.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Islam MM, Afrin S, Tarek MH, et al (2021)

Reliability and financial feasibility assessment of a community rainwater harvesting system considering precipitation variability due to climate change.

Journal of environmental management, 289:112507 pii:S0301-4797(21)00569-7 [Epub ahead of print].

This study proposes a community rainwater harvesting (RWH) system as an alternative water supply solution for Paikgacha, a water-scarce coastal urban area in Bangladesh. Although individual household-based RWH systems have been implemented in many areas in Bangladesh, to date, no study has been conducted designing a community RWH system and assessing its reliability and financial feasibility. This study employs historical observed and available climate model predicted future rainfall data into stormwater management model (SWMM) for rainfall-runoff simulation of the community RWH, and compares SWMM's performance with rational formula based estimation. We then calculate volumetric and time reliability of the proposed system and assess its financial viability. We observe good agreement in reliability curves generated by SWMM and rational formula-based model. Under the historical rainfall scenario, our proposed community RWH shows up to 99% reliability for 100 L per day household demand, given that proper community size and storage tank size are chosen. Predicted rainfall pattern of 2041-2070 period shows similar reliability-tank size relation to that of historical observed rainfall; however, predicted high precipitation intensity during 2021-2040 and 2071-2100 seem to assist the system in attaining higher reliability. Cost-benefit analysis indicates the financial viability of the proposed system. Finally, we develop a nomograph incorporating interactive factors of RWH, which would ease decision making by the policymakers regarding the implementation of community RWH.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Pendrey CG, Quilty S, Gruen RL, et al (2021)

Is climate change exacerbating health-care workforce shortages for underserved populations?.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 5(4):e183-e184.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Paterson P, RM Clarke (2021)

Climate change risk communication: a vaccine hesitancy perspective.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 5(4):e179-e180.

RevDate: 2021-04-10

Kotcher J, Maibach E, Miller J, et al (2021)

Views of health professionals on climate change and health: a multinational survey study.

The Lancet. Planetary health pii:S2542-5196(21)00053-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change arguably represents one of the greatest global health threats of our time. Health professionals can advocate for global efforts to reduce emissions and protect people from climate change; however, evidence of their willingness to do so remains scarce. In this Viewpoint, we report findings from a large, multinational survey of health professionals (n=4654) that examined their views of climate change as a human health issue. Consistent with previous research, participants in this survey largely understood that climate change is happening and is caused by humans, viewed climate change as an important and growing cause of health harm in their country, and felt a responsibility to educate the public and policymakers about the problem. Despite their high levels of commitment to engaging in education and advocacy on the issue, many survey participants indicated that a range of personal, professional, and societal barriers impede them from doing so, with time constraints being the most widely reported barrier. However, participants say various resources-continuing professional education, communication training, patient education materials, policy statements, action alerts, and guidance on how to make health-care workplaces sustainable-can help to address those barriers. We offer recommendations on how to strengthen and support health professional education and advocacy activities to address the human health challenges of climate change.

RevDate: 2021-04-10

Timoner P, Fasel M, AshrafVaghefi SS, et al (2021)

Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Freshwater biodiversity loss is a major concern, and global warming is already playing a significant role in species extinctions. Our main goal was to predict climate change impacts on aquatic insect species distribution and richness in Swiss running waters according to two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using different modeling approaches, i.e. species distribution models (SDMs), stacked-SDMs (S-SDMs) and a macroecological model (MEM). We analyzed 10,808 reaches, used as spatial units for model predictions, for a total river network length of 20,610 km. Results were assessed at both the countrywide and the biogeographic regional scales. We used incidence data of 41 species of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) from 259 sites distributed across Switzerland. We integrated a coupled model for hydrology and glacier retreat to simulate monthly time-step discharge from which we derived hydrological variables. These, along with thermal, land-cover, topographic and spatially explicit data, served as predictors for our ecological models. Predictions of occurrence probabilities and EPT richness were compared among the different regions, periods and scenarios. A Shiny web application was developed to interactively explore all the models' details, to ensure transparency and promote the sharing of information. MEM and S-SDMs approaches consistently showed that overall, climate change is likely to reduce EPT richness. Decrease could be around 10% in the least conservative scenario, depending on the region. Global warming was shown to represent a threat to species from high elevation, but in terms of species richness, running waters from lowlands and medium elevation seemed more vulnerable. Finally, our results suggest that the effects of anthropogenic activities could overweight natural factors in shaping the future of river biodiversity.

RevDate: 2021-04-13
CmpDate: 2021-04-13

Wang W, Chakraborty TC, Xiao W, et al (2021)

Ocean surface energy balance allows a constraint on the sensitivity of precipitation to global warming.

Nature communications, 12(1):2115.

Climate models generally predict higher precipitation in a future warmer climate. Whether the precipitation intensification occurred in response to historical warming continues to be a subject of debate. Here, using observations of the ocean surface energy balance as a hydrological constraint, we find that historical warming intensified precipitation at a rate of 0.68 ± 0.51% K-1, which is slightly higher than the multi-model mean calculation for the historical climate (0.38 ± 1.18% K-1). The reduction in ocean surface albedo associated with melting of sea ice is a positive contributor to the precipitation temperature sensitivity. On the other hand, the observed increase in ocean heat storage weakens the historical precipitation. In this surface energy balance framework, the incident shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the ocean heat storage exert a dominant control on the precipitation temperature sensitivity, explaining 91% of the inter-model spread and the spread across climate scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Zhu D, Zhou Q, Liu M, et al (2021)

Non-optimum temperature-related mortality burden in China: Addressing the dual influences of climate change and urban heat islands.

The Science of the total environment, 782:146760 pii:S0048-9697(21)01828-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Under the dual effects of climate change and urban heat islands (UHI), non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens are complex and uncertain, and are rarely discussed in China. In this study, by applying city-specific exposure-response functions to multiple temperature and population projections under different climate and urbanization scenarios, we comprehensively assessed the non-optimum temperature-related mortality burdens in China from 2000 to 2050. Our results showed that temperature-related deaths will decrease from 1.19 million in 2010 to 1.08-1.17 million in 2050, with the exception of the most populous scenario. Excess deaths attributable to non-optimal temperatures under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) were 2.35% greater than those under RCP4.5. This indicates that the surge in heat-related deaths caused by climate change will be offset by the reduction in cold-related deaths. As the climate changes, high-risk areas will be confronted with more severe health challenges, which requires health protection resource relocation strategies. Simultaneously, the net effects of UHIs are beneficial in the historical periods, preventing 3493 (95% CI: 22-6964) deaths in 2000. But UHIs will cause an additional 6951 (95% CI: -17,637-31,539, SSP4-RCP4.5) to 17,041 (95% CI: -10,516-44,598, SSP5-RCP8.5) deaths in 2050. The heavier health burden in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 indicates that a warmer climate aggravates the negative effects of UHIs. Considering the synergistic behavior of climate change and UHIs, UHI mitigation strategies should not be developed without considering climate change. Moreover, the mortality burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with heavy burdens concentrated in the hotspots including Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, Shandong, and Henan. These hotspots should be priority areas for the allocation of the national medical resources to provide effective public health interventions.

RevDate: 2021-04-12

Sheu JC, Torres MIM, Gordon MR, et al (2021)

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Human Trafficking: A Narrative Review.

The Journal of nervous and mental disease, 209(5):324-329.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is a threat to the public health with wide-reaching impacts that are becoming more studied and recognized. An aspect of climate change that has not yet gained adequate scholarly attention is its potential impact on human trafficking. We review the potential impact of climate change on risk factors to human trafficking including poverty, gender inequality, political instability, migration or forced displacement, and weather disasters. We conclude that climate change is a crucially important consideration in understanding the complex and multifactorial risks for human trafficking. These findings add to the priority for health professionals to embrace efforts to prevent and to mitigate the effects of climate change and to take account of these risk factors in screening and identifying trafficked persons.

RevDate: 2021-04-11

Penaskovic KM, Goldenberg MN, JS Gerkin (2021)

Telepsychiatry: a Potential Force Against Climate Change.

RevDate: 2021-04-11

Khelifa R, Mahdjoub H, Baaloudj A, et al (2021)

Effects of both climate change and human water demand on a highly threatened damselfly.

Scientific reports, 11(1):7725.

While climate change severely affects some aquatic ecosystems, it may also interact with anthropogenic factors and exacerbate their impact. In dry climates, dams can cause hydrological drought during dry periods following a great reduction in dam water discharge. However, impact of these severe hydrological droughts on lotic fauna is poorly documented, despite climate change expected to increase drought duration and intensity. We document here how dam water discharge was affected by climate variability during 2011-2018 in a highly modified watershed in northeastern Algeria, and how an endemic endangered lotic damselfly, Calopteryx exul Selys, 1853 (Odonata: Calopterygidae), responded to hydrological drought episodes. Analysis was based on a compilation of data on climate (temperature, precipitation, and drought index), water dam management (water depth and discharge volume and frequency), survey data on C. exul occurrence, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) of adults. The study period was characterized by a severe drought between 2014 and 2017, which led to a lowering of dam water depth and reduction of discharge into the river, with associated changes in water chemistry, particularly during 2017 and 2018. These events could have led to the extirpation of several populations of C. exul in the Seybouse River (Algeria). CMR surveys showed that the species was sensitive to water depth fluctuations, avoiding low and high water levels (drought and flooding). The study shows that climate change interacts with human water requirements and affects river flow regimes, water chemistry and aquatic fauna. As drought events are likely to increase in the future, the current study highlights the need for urgent new management plans for lotic habitats to maintain this species and possible others.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Joslyn S, R Demnitz (2021)

Explaining how long CO₂ stays in the atmosphere: Does it change attitudes toward climate change?.

Journal of experimental psychology. Applied pii:2021-32481-001 [Epub ahead of print].

Despite overwhelming scientific consensus about climate change, the majority of Americans are not very worried about it. This may be due in part to insufficient understanding of the urgency and seriousness, which may be related among some, to distrust of the scientific community. We test these hypotheses in an experimental study using a broadly nationally representative sample. An explanation of the delay between the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and cessation of global warming was compared to two control groups, one with basic climate change information and another with no information. Participants also received climate predictions that either included or excluded uncertainty estimates for a 3 × 2 complete factorial design. Results suggest that the delay explanation increased participants understanding of this issue and reduced their agreement with a wait-and-see strategy, especially among conservatives. Moreover, uncertainty estimates increased trust in climate predictions and ratings of climate scientists' expertise and understanding. Uncertainty estimates also increased concern about climate change and the perception of scientific consensus. Although in some cases small, these positive effects were seen across political ideology groups. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Akanbi RT, Davis N, T Ndarana (2021)

ASSESSING SOUTH AFRICA'S INSTITUTIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: INTEGRATION OF A SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DIMENSION.

Integrated environmental assessment and management [Epub ahead of print].

The deployment of adaptation plans to limit the threat of climate change often hinges on the capacity of various national and local institutions. An observed decline in South Africa's maize production over the last few decades have raised questions about the capacity of institutions responsible for providing climate change-related adaptive support to maize farmers in the country. This study assessed the adaptive capacity of management institutions in South Africa supporting maize producers, using a combination of literature review, document analysis and in-depth interviews applied in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) assessment tool. Based on the results obtained from this analysis, the adaptive capacity of South African institutions responsible for climate change response processes were scored as medium. Findings from the research suggests that the advances made to date in South Africa, in terms of climate change related policy development, resource allocation and capacity development could be inadequate given the extent of identified institutional weaknesses, capacity constraints, knowledge and information limitations. The study concludes that an inability to address current institutional limitations considering the threats associated with climate change, may result in intensified social and economic challenges in the maize production sector. The study recommends the consistent revision and capacitation of these institutions to enable them to provide the type of support that will ensure timeous and effective adaptive responses for farmers involved in maize production in the country This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Catania F, Baedke J, Fábregas-Tejeda A, et al (2021)

Global climate change, diet, and the complex relationship between human host and microbiome: Towards an integrated picture.

BioEssays : news and reviews in molecular, cellular and developmental biology [Epub ahead of print].

Dietary changes can alter the human microbiome with potential detrimental consequences for health. Given that environment, health, and evolution are interconnected, we ask: Could diet-driven microbiome perturbations have consequences that extend beyond their immediate impact on human health? We address this question in the context of the urgent health challenges posed by global climate change. Drawing on recent studies, we propose that not only can diet-driven microbiome changes lead to dysbiosis, they can also shape life-history traits and fuel human evolution. We posit that dietary shifts prompt mismatched microbiome-host genetics configurations that modulate human longevity and reproductive success. These mismatches can also induce a heritable intra-holobiont stress response, which encourages the holobiont to re-establish equilibrium within the changed nutritional environment. Thus, while mismatches between climate change-related genetic and epigenetic configurations within the holobiont increase the risk and severity of diseases, they may also affect life-history traits and facilitate adaptive responses. These propositions form a framework that can help systematize and address climate-related dietary challenges for policy and health interventions.

RevDate: 2021-04-09

Rienth M, Vigneron N, Darriet P, et al (2021)

Grape Berry Secondary Metabolites and Their Modulation by Abiotic Factors in a Climate Change Scenario-A Review.

Frontiers in plant science, 12:643258.

Temperature, water, solar radiation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration are the main abiotic factors that are changing in the course of global warming. These abiotic factors govern the synthesis and degradation of primary (sugars, amino acids, organic acids, etc.) and secondary (phenolic and volatile flavor compounds and their precursors) metabolites directly, via the regulation of their biosynthetic pathways, or indirectly, via their effects on vine physiology and phenology. Several hundred secondary metabolites have been identified in the grape berry. Their biosynthesis and degradation have been characterized and have been shown to occur during different developmental stages of the berry. The understanding of how the different abiotic factors modulate secondary metabolism and thus berry quality is of crucial importance for breeders and growers to develop plant material and viticultural practices to maintain high-quality fruit and wine production in the context of global warming. Here, we review the main secondary metabolites of the grape berry, their biosynthesis, and how their accumulation and degradation is influenced by abiotic factors. The first part of the review provides an update on structure, biosynthesis, and degradation of phenolic compounds (flavonoids and non-flavonoids) and major aroma compounds (terpenes, thiols, methoxypyrazines, and C13 norisoprenoids). The second part gives an update on the influence of abiotic factors, such as water availability, temperature, radiation, and CO2 concentration, on berry secondary metabolism. At the end of the paper, we raise some critical questions regarding intracluster berry heterogeneity and dilution effects and how the sampling strategy can impact the outcome of studies on the grapevine berry response to abiotic factors.

RevDate: 2021-04-11

Bright Ross JG, Peters W, Ossi F, et al (2021)

Climate change and anthropogenic food manipulation interact in shifting the distribution of a large herbivore at its altitudinal range limit.

Scientific reports, 11(1):7600.

Ungulates in alpine ecosystems are constrained by winter harshness through resource limitation and direct mortality from weather extremes. However, little empirical evidence has definitively established how current climate change and other anthropogenic modifications of resource availability affect ungulate winter distribution, especially at their range limits. Here, we used a combination of historical (1997-2002) and contemporary (2012-2015) Eurasian roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) relocation datasets that span changes in snowpack characteristics and two levels of supplemental feeding to compare and forecast probability of space use at the species' altitudinal range limit. Scarcer snow cover in the contemporary period interacted with the augmented feeding site distribution to increase the elevation of winter range limits, and we predict this trend will continue under climate change. Moreover, roe deer have shifted from historically using feeding sites primarily under deep snow conditions to contemporarily using them under a wider range of snow conditions as their availability has increased. Combined with scarcer snow cover during December, January, and April, this trend has reduced inter-annual variability in space use patterns in these months. These spatial responses to climate- and artificial resource-provisioning shifts evidence the importance of these changing factors in shaping large herbivore spatial distribution and, consequently, ecosystem dynamics.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Taheri S, Naimi B, Rahbek C, et al (2021)

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required.

Science advances, 7(15): pii:7/15/eabe1110.

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

RevDate: 2021-04-07

Jack A, R Panchal (2021)

Soaring seas, forest fires and deadly drought: climate change conspiracies and mental health.

BJPsych bulletin pii:S2056469421000073 [Epub ahead of print].

There is scientific consensus that anthropogenic climate change is real and that it provides an existential threat to humanity and the planet. In this article, we focus on climate change conspiracy theories and the impact of such beliefs on mental health. We discuss the psychiatric disorders that might be relevant to conspiracy belief endorsement and we present the underlying psychological mechanisms. We note that there is little to no literature to associate beliefs about climate change with serious mental health conditions. However, we anticipate that such beliefs may manifest pathologically in psychiatric presentations as climate change becomes increasingly at the forefront of the global agenda.

RevDate: 2021-04-07

Paniw M, James TD, Ruth Archer C, et al (2021)

The myriad of complex demographic responses of terrestrial mammals to climate change and gaps of knowledge: A global analysis.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Approximately 25% of mammals are currently threatened with extinction, a risk that is amplified under climate change. Species persistence under climate change is determined by the combined effects of climatic factors on multiple demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction), and hence, population dynamics. Thus, to quantify which species and regions on Earth are most vulnerable to climate-driven extinction, a global understanding of how different demographic rates respond to climate is urgently needed. Here, we perform a systematic review of literature on demographic responses to climate, focusing on terrestrial mammals, for which extensive demographic data are available. To assess the full spectrum of responses, we synthesize information from studies that quantitatively link climate to multiple demographic rates. We find only 106 such studies, corresponding to 87 mammal species. These 87 species constitute <1% of all terrestrial mammals. Our synthesis reveals a strong mismatch between the locations of demographic studies and the regions and taxa currently recognized as most vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, for most mammals and regions sensitive to climate change, holistic demographic responses to climate remain unknown. At the same time, we reveal that filling this knowledge gap is critical as the effects of climate change will operate via complex demographic mechanisms: a vast majority of mammal populations display projected increases in some demographic rates but declines in others, often depending on the specific environmental context, complicating simple projections of population fates. Assessments of population viability under climate change are in critical need to gather data that account for multiple demographic responses, and coordinated actions to assess demography holistically should be prioritized for mammals and other taxa.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Destaw F, MM Fenta (2021)

Climate change adaptation strategies and their predictors amongst rural farmers in Ambassel district, Northern Ethiopia.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 13(1):974.

The present study was conducted in Ambassel district of Northern Ethiopia to understand adaptation strategies employed by rural farmers to the adverse effects of climate change and variability and factors that determine their adaptation decisions. The study was based on multistage sampling techniques to select the study villages and sampled households (HHs). Data were collected through HH survey, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The collected data were analysed by using descriptive statistics and multinomial logit (MNL) model. The results revealed that in response to the effects of climate variability and change, the adaptation strategies deployed by farmers included terracing as soil and water conservation strategy, changing planting date, fertiliser application, crop diversification with improved variety, income diversification and livestock diversification. The result from MNL analysis showed that age, family size, educational level, farm size, income, livestock holding, access to extension, distance to market, access to climate information and agroecological zones were amongst the factors that had a significant influence on farmers' choice of adaptation strategies. The basic barriers to climate change adaptation were lack of finance, shortage of land, inadequate climate information, lack of skill and shortage of labour. Therefore, strengthening interventions that enhance income generating activities and access to climate information should be an integral part of climate change adaptation strategies. Moreover, providing early maturing and high-value crop varieties that are more suited to the local environment is also crucial.

RevDate: 2021-04-14
CmpDate: 2021-04-14

Dibley A, Wetzer T, C Hepburn (2021)

National COVID debts: climate change imperils countries' ability to repay.

Nature, 592(7853):184-187.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Arunrat N, Sereenonchai S, C Wang (2021)

Carbon footprint and predicting the impact of climate change on carbon sequestration ecosystem services of organic rice farming and conventional rice farming: A case study in Phichit province, Thailand.

Journal of environmental management, 289:112458 pii:S0301-4797(21)00520-X [Epub ahead of print].

Organic rice farming is a sustainable rice cultivation system that eliminates chemical inputs and has the potential to reduce environmental impacts. This study aims to: 1) evaluate and compare the carbon footprint intensity and the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services (VCSES) between organic rice farming (OF) and conventional rice farming (CF) and 2) estimate the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC), rice yield, and VCSES of two farming types in Phichit province, Thailand. The results showed that the carbon footprint intensity in OF and CF were significantly different with -0.13 and 0.82 kg CO2eq kg-1 rice yield, respectively. The differences in SOC stocks (ΔSOCS) were more significant in OF with the increase of 1107.6 kg C ha-1 year-1 (4061.2 kg CO2eq ha-1 year-1), while the ΔSOCS value in CF was 625 kg C ha-1 year-1 (2291.7 kg CO2eq ha-1 year-1). The VCSES in OF (541,196 US$ ha-1 year-1) was nearly two times higher than in CF (305,388 US$ ha-1 year-1). Under future climate change, rice yields of both farming types are expected to increase under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0, and it will decline under RCP8.5. The SOC and VCSES values are predicted to increase, except under RCP8.5. The dramatic declines can be found from the near future (2020-2039) to the very far future (2080-2099) period. Our finding indicates that even though climate change will have negative effects on SOC and VCSES, the OF will have less impact compared with CF.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

Pietrapertosa F, Salvia M, De Gregorio Hurtado S, et al (2021)

Multi-level climate change planning: An analysis of the Italian case.

Journal of environmental management, 289:112469 pii:S0301-4797(21)00531-4 [Epub ahead of print].

As recognized by the Paris Climate Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), local and subnational regions are crucial actors to achieve international mitigation and adaptation commitments. Scientific literature and empirical evidence point at multi-level climate governance as a crucial factor to engage subnational levels in the achievement of national and international objectives. This work focuses on the multi-level climate governance arrangements in Italy to investigate how Italian regions/provinces/cities are contributing to the achievement of national commitments. To this purpose, the paper undertakes a review of the climate policies of different tiers of government adopted to date and of the interrelationships among them. The results of the analysis show that the effective coordination between the different government levels should be strengthened to further incentivize and support initiatives at the local level. Results also show the relevant role played by international regional and city climate networks in boosting local and regional climate planning in Italy.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Kluczkovski A, Lait R, Martins CA, et al (2021)

Learning in lockdown: Using the COVID-19 crisis to teach children about food and climate change.

Food systems are significant sources of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE). Since emission intensity varies greatly between different foods, changing food choices towards those with lower GHGE could make an important contribution to mitigating climate change. Public engagement events offer an opportunity to communicate these multifaceted issues and raise awareness about the climate change impact of food choices. An interdisciplinary team of researchers was preparing food and climate change educational activities for summer 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown disrupted these plans. In this paper, we report on shifting these events online over the month of June 2020. We discuss what we did and the reception to our online programme. We then reflect on and highlight issues that arose. These relate to: (1) the power dynamics of children, diet and climate change; (2) mental health, diet and COVID-19; (3) engaging the wider science, agriculture and food communities; (4) the benefits of being unfunded and the homemade nature of this programme; (5) the food system, STEAM (science, technology, engineering, arts and mathematics) and diversity; and (6) how our work fits into our ongoing journey of food and climate change education.

RevDate: 2021-04-07

Von Storch L, Ley L, J Sun (2021)

New climate change activism: before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Social anthropology : the journal of the European Association of Social Anthropologists = Anthropologie sociale, 29(1):205-209.

RevDate: 2021-04-07
CmpDate: 2021-04-07

Berberoglu S, Donmez C, A Cilek (2021)

Modelling climate change impacts on regional net primary productivity in Turkey.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 193(5):242.

This study projects and models the terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) considering the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of Turkey using remote-sensing-based biogeochemical modelling techniques. Changes in annual NPP between 2000-2010 and 2070-2080 were projected with the biogeochemical ecosystem model NASA-Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA). A multi-temporal data set, including 16-day MODIS composites with a spatial resolution of 250 m, was used within the CASA model. The 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC presented several scenarios for RCPs named RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 that laid the foundation for the future climate projections. The futuristic NPP modelling was based on the assumptions of maintaining CO2 level in the range of 421 to 936 ppm and a rise in temperature from 1.1 to 2.6 °C. The NPP in Turkey averaged 1232 g C m2 year-1 as per the model results. Considering 2000-2010 as the baseline period, the NPP was modelled within the range of 9.6 and 316 g C m2 year-1. Modelled average NPP was 1332.4 g C m2 year-1 per year between 2061 and 2080. The forest productivity was also estimated to be increased up to 113 g C m-2 year-1 under the climate change scenarios. However, there were minor differences in the projected average NPP under the baseline period covering years from 2000 to 2080 from those under RCPs. It appeared that variation in temperature and precipitation as a result of climate change affected the terrestrial NPP. The regional environmental and socio-economic consequences of climate change on diverse landscapes such as Turkey were properly modelled and analysed to understand the spatial variation of climate change impacts on vegetation. Changes in NPP imply that forests in Turkey could be carbon sinks in the future as their current potential that would profile Turkey's climate mitigation. This is one of the pioneering studies to estimate the future changes of regional NPP in Turkey by integrating various spatial inputs and a biogeochemical model.

RevDate: 2021-04-15

West TAP, Salekin S, Melia N, et al (2021)

Diversification of forestry portfolios for climate change and market risk mitigation.

Journal of environmental management, 289:112482 pii:S0301-4797(21)00544-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Investments in forestry are long-term and thus subject to numerous sources of risk. In addition to the volatility from markets, forestry investments are directly exposed to future impacts from climate change. We examined how diversification of forest management regimes can mitigate the expected risks associated with forestry activities in New Zealand based on an application of Modern Portfolio Theory. Uncertainties in the responses of Pinus radiata (D. Don) productivity to climate change, from 2050 to 2090, were simulated with 3-PG, a process-based forest growth model, based on future climate scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Future timber market scenarios were based on RCP-specific projections from the Global Timber Model and historical log grade prices. Outputs from 3-PG and the market scenarios were combined to compute annualized forestry returns for four P. radiata regimes for 2050-2090. This information was then used to construct optimal forestry portfolios that minimize investment risk for a given target return under different RCPs, forest productivity and market scenarios. While current P. radiata regimes in New Zealand are largely homogenous, our results suggest that regime diversification can mitigate future risks imposed by climate change and market uncertainty. Nevertheless, optimal portfolio compositions varied substantially across our range of scenarios and portfolio objectives. The application of this framework can help forest managers to better account for future risks in their management decisions.

RevDate: 2021-04-03

Ma X, Zhu J, Yan W, et al (2021)

Projections of desertification trends in Central Asia under global warming scenarios.

The Science of the total environment, 781:146777 pii:S0048-9697(21)01845-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Central Asia (CA) is a core area of global desertification, but the effect of the intensifying "global greening" policy on the desertification process under global warming scenarios in CA remains unclear. Based on multi-source remote sensing data and Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2b climate data, this study investigated desertification in CA using actual evapotranspiration (ETa), temperature and precipitation as driving factors. Coupling with the CA-Markov model, the inversion method of desertification was improved, and the evolution normal form of desertification in CA was proposed. Finally, spatio-temporal variations of desertification in CA were quantified. The results indicate that temperature, precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in CA increased during the historical period (1980-2015), with sudden changes in 1994. In contrast, although ETa exhibited fluctuating increases (7.41 mm/10 yr) during this period, no sudden changes were observed in 1994. In the future (2006-2099), the climate of CA will become warmer and wetter. With reference to 1980-2005, precipitation under global warming of 2.0 °C (GW2.0) will be higher than that under global warming of 1.5 °C (GW1.5) by 10.3 mm, and ETa will increase by 20.88 mm and 27.54 mm under GW1.5 and GW2.0, respectively. Although the area of desert lands has decreased (5.94 × 104 km2/10 yr), the area of potential desert lands has increased (0.17 × 104 km2/10 yr). With global warming, this situation will continue to intensify, mainly in Xinjiang of China, and Kazakhstan. The Aral Sea plays an important role in the desertification of CA. The potential increase in desert land under GW2.0 is equivalent to the current water area of the Aral Sea. The findings could provide policy support for combating desertification in CA and promoting the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Alkishe A, Raghavan RK, AT Peterson (2021)

Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review.

Insects, 12(3):.

Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species' distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America.

RevDate: 2021-04-08
CmpDate: 2021-04-08

Yamori K, JD Goltz (2021)

Disasters without Borders: The Coronavirus Pandemic, Global Climate Change and the Ascendancy of Gradual Onset Disasters.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(6):.

Throughout much of its history, the sociological study of human communities in disaster has been based on events that occur rapidly, are limited in geographic scope, and their management understood as phased stages of response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness. More recent literature has questioned these concepts, arguing that gradual-onset phenomena like droughts, famines and epidemics merit consideration as disasters and that their exclusion has negative consequences for the communities impacted, public policy in terms of urgency and visibility and for the discipline itself as the analytical tools of sociological research are not brought to bear on these events. We agree that gradual-onset disasters merit greater attention from social scientists and in this paper have addressed the two most significant ongoing disasters that are gradual in onset, global in scope and have caused profound impacts on lives, livelihoods, communities and the governments that must cope with their effects. These disasters are the coronavirus pandemic and global climate change both of which include dimensions that challenge the prevailing definition of disaster. We begin with an examination of the foundational work in the sociological study of a disaster that established a conceptual framework based solely on rapidly occurring disasters. Our focus is on several components of the existing framework for defining and studying disasters, which we term "borders." These borders are temporal, spatial, phasing and positioning, which, in our view, must be reexamined, and to some degree expanded or redefined to accommodate the full range of disasters to which our globalized world is vulnerable. To do so will expand or redefine these borders to incorporate and promote an understanding of significant risks associated with disaster agents that are gradual and potentially catastrophic, global in scope and require international cooperation to manage.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Delpla I, Diallo TA, Keeling M, et al (2021)

Tools and Methods to Include Health in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policies: A Scoping Review.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(5):.

Climate change represents a serious threat to the health and well-being of populations. Today, many countries, regions, and cities around the world are implementing policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects. A scoping review was performed to identify tools and methods that help integrate health into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies. The literature search includes scientific and grey literature. The scientific literature was conducted using PubMed, Elsevier Embase, and Web of Science databases. A grey literature web search was performed to complement the results. A total of 35 studies (28 from the scientific literature and 7 from the grey literature) were finally included. A large majority of research articles (24/28) and almost all reports (6/7) from the grey literature were published after 2010. Results show that the tools that were found most frequently are the nested models (12/35), health impact assessment (6/35), vulnerability and adaptation assessment (3/35), conceptual frameworks (3/35), and mixed methods (3/35). This review shows an increasing interest in the topic of developing tools to better manage health issues in adaptation and mitigation strategies, with a recent increase in the number of publications. Additional analyses of tools' effectiveness should be conducted in further studies.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Dupraz J, B Burnand (2021)

Role of Health Professionals Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Health-An Exploratory Review.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(6):.

Health professionals are increasingly urged to act to protect individuals and populations against the negative effects of climate and environment change on health. However, the amount of evidence supporting initiatives to that end is unknown. We explored the literature examining the awareness, preparedness, and role of healthcare professionals to inform about the impact of climate change on health on the one hand, and literature about the effectiveness of interventions mediated by health professionals aiming at reducing the environmental impact of human activities on the other hand. We included 137 articles published between 2000 and 2020, mostly in general medical and nursing journals. The typical article was a perspective, commentary, or other special article aimed at alerting readers about the impact of climate and environment change on health. We identified 22 studies, of which only two reported interventions. Despite increasing efforts of health professionals to address climate and environment change and related health risks, health literature supporting such efforts remains scarce, and studies assessing the effectiveness of interventions are lacking. We need appropriate evidence to indicate which interventions should be prioritized, considering that the association of health issues with climate and environment change could constitute an effective lever for change.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Kong F, S Sun (2021)

Better Understanding Insurance Mechanism in Dealing with Climate Change Risk, with Special Reference to China.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(6):.

Climate change risk has become an important challenge for global sustainable development. The insurance industry can play an important role in coping with the increasingly severe climate change risk. This paper first describes the increasing climate change risk and the difficulties of the insurance mechanism in dealing with it. Then this paper summarizes the international practice of using the insurance mechanism to deal with climate change risk from ten different aspects. Based on the summary of the role of the insurance mechanism in dealing with this risk in developing countries, this paper puts forward the main application areas for climate change risk insurance and discusses the policy implications of developing climate change risk insurance in China.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Li C, Li Z, Yang M, et al (2021)

Grid-Scale Impact of Climate Change and Human Influence on Soil Erosion within East African Highlands (Kagera Basin).

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(5):.

Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, soil erosion is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Kagera basin (KB). However, few studies in this region have comprehensively considered the impact of climate change and human influence on soil erosion, and the associated processes are unclear. Based on the premise of quantifying climate change, human influence, and soil erosion, this study undertook a neighborhood analysis as the theoretical support, for a grey relation analysis which was conducted to realize the qualitative assessment of the influence of climate change and human activities on soil erosion. The results show that 90.32% of the KB saw climate change as having a greater influence on soil erosion than human influence, with the remaining area 9.68% seeing human influence having a greater impact than climate change, mainly as a result of the effect of rangeland and farmland. The average soil erosion rate of the KB shows a very low level (10.54 t ha-1 yr-1), with rangeland and farmland being the main land use/land cover (LULC) types that see soil loss, followed by forest, wetland, and built-up areas. The climate change trends of the KB show the most dramatic changes in the northeast and southwest, gradually decreasing towards the line crossing from the Birunga National Park (Rwanda) to the Keza district (Tanzania). The human influence intensity (HII) shows a high level in the KB (21.93), where it is higher in the west and lower in the east of the basin.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Buist Y, Bekker M, Vaandrager L, et al (2021)

Understanding Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change: An Explorative Study on the Development of Adaptation Strategies Relating to the Oak Processionary Moth in The Netherlands.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(6):.

Understanding of public health adaptation (PHA) to climate change and implementation is limited. This study therefore focuses on one specific PHA issue: adaptation to the oak processionary moth (OPM). The aim is to examine the development of OPM adaptation in order to offer a problem description of the complexities involved in OPM adaptation. In this explorative case study, we investigate adaptation strategies based on semi-structured interviews with 26 actors involved in OPM adaptation in The Netherlands. The results indicate that the context of OPM adaptation is relatively complex, given the involvement of many interdependent actors. OPM adaptation was developed with limited knowledge and strategies were based on ad hoc approaches in which there was ambiguity about tasks and expertise. In addition, different actors have different perceptions and values concerning health, sustainability, risks and responsibilities influencing decision-making processes, while also posing a challenge to collaboration and the development of a coordinated approach. The generation of knowledge and its translation into practical strategies calls for interdisciplinary cooperation in knowledge development. PHA adaptation involves more than technical and organisational solutions alone. It also entails the development of a shared problem perception and solution space in which citizens are also engaged.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Bikomeye JC, Rublee CS, KMM Beyer (2021)

Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(5):.

Anthropogenic climate change is adversely impacting people and contributing to suffering and increased costs from climate-related diseases and injuries. In responding to this urgent and growing public health crisis, mitigation strategies are in place to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) while adaptation strategies exist to reduce and/or alleviate the adverse effects of climate change by increasing systems' resilience to future impacts. While these strategies have numerous positive benefits on climate change itself, they also often have other positive externalities or health co-benefits. This knowledge can be harnessed to promote and improve global public health, particularly for the most vulnerable populations. Previous conceptual models in mitigation and adaptation studies such as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considered health in the thinking, but health outcomes were not their primary intention. Additionally, existing guidance documents such as the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidance for Climate Resilient and Environmentally Sustainable Health Care Facilities is designed primarily for public health professionals or healthcare managers in hospital settings with a primary focus on resilience. However, a detailed cross sectoral and multidisciplinary conceptual framework, which links mitigation and adaptation strategies with health outcomes as a primary end point, has not yet been developed to guide research in this area. In this paper, we briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research and preparedness across sectors and disciplines and outline key stakeholders recommendations in promoting climate resilient systems and advancing health equity.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Delgado-Ospina J, Molina-Hernández JB, Chaves-López C, et al (2021)

The Role of Fungi in the Cocoa Production Chain and the Challenge of Climate Change.

Journal of fungi (Basel, Switzerland), 7(3):.

BACKGROUND: The role of fungi in cocoa crops is mainly associated with plant diseases and contamination of harvest with unwanted metabolites such as mycotoxins that can reach the final consumer. However, in recent years there has been interest in discovering other existing interactions in the environment that may be beneficial, such as antagonism, commensalism, and the production of specific enzymes, among others. Scope and approach: This review summarizes the different fungi species involved in cocoa production and the cocoa supply chain. In particular, it examines the presence of fungal species during cultivation, harvest, fermentation, drying, and storage, emphasizing the factors that possibly influence their prevalence in the different stages of production and the health risks associated with the production of mycotoxins in the light of recent literature. Key findings and conclusion: Fungi associated with the cocoa production chain have many different roles. They have evolved in a varied range of ecosystems in close association with plants and various habitats, affecting nearly all the cocoa chain steps. Reports of the isolation of 60 genera of fungi were found, of which only 19 were involved in several stages. Although endophytic fungi can help control some diseases caused by pathogenic fungi, climate change, with increased rain and temperatures, together with intensified exchanges, can favour most of these fungal infections, and the presence of highly aggressive new fungal genotypes increasing the concern of mycotoxin production. For this reason, mitigation strategies need to be determined to prevent the spread of disease-causing fungi and preserve beneficial ones.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Vercelli M, Novelli S, Ferrazzi P, et al (2021)

A Qualitative Analysis of Beekeepers' Perceptions and Farm Management Adaptations to the Impact of Climate Change on Honey Bees.

Insects, 12(3):.

(1) Background: Bees are the primary animal pollinators in most ecosystems, and honey bees (Apis mellifera L.) are important providers of pollination ecosystem services and products. Climate change is one of the major threats for honey bees. (2) Objectives and methods: Qualitative research using focus group discussions was carried out in northwestern Italy, to investigate the beekeepers' perceptions of climate change effects, the relevant management adaptations, and the main issues affecting the sector. (3) Results: Beekeepers reported several consequences related to severe weather events (weakening or loss of colonies; scarcity of nectar, pollen, and honeydew; decrease or lack of honey and other bee products; greater infestation by varroa; decline in pollination), making it necessary to provide supplemental sugar feeding, intensive transhumance, more effective and sustainable techniques for varroa control, and increased production of nuclei. A strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis was completed, displaying the factors able to strengthen or weaken the resilience of the beekeeping sector to climate change. (4) Conclusions: Thanks to their strong motivation and collaborative attitude, beekeepers succeed in adopting farm and bee hive adaptation strategies that are able to limit the climatic adverse effects. However, these findings highlight how the institutional and financial support for the beekeeping sector should be strengthened and better targeted.

RevDate: 2021-04-13

Lee CM, Lee DS, Kwon TS, et al (2021)

Predicting the Global Distribution of Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) under Climate Change Using the MaxEnt Model.

Insects, 12(3):.

The tropical fire ant Solenopsis geminata (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) is a serious invasive species that causes a decline in agricultural production, damages infrastructure, and harms human health. This study was aimed to develop a model using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the current and future distribution of S. geminata on a global scale for effective monitoring and management. In total, 669 occurrence sites of S. geminata and six bioclimatic variables of current and future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2100 were used for the modeling. The annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the key influential factors for determining the distribution of S. geminata. Although the potential global distribution area of S. geminata is predicted to decrease slightly under global warming, the distribution of favorable habitats is predicted to expand to high latitudes under climate scenarios. In addition, some countries in America and East Asia, such as Brazil, China, South Korea, the USA, and Uruguay, are predicted to be threatened by S. geminata invasion under future climate change. These findings can facilitate the proactive management of S. geminata through monitoring, surveillance, and quarantine measures.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Zhang Y, Yan J, Cheng X, et al (2021)

Wetland Changes and Their Relation to Climate Change in the Pumqu Basin, Tibetan Plateau.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(5):.

Wetland ecosystems play one of the most crucial roles in the world. Wetlands have the functions of ecological water storage, water supply, and climate regulation, which plays an indispensable role in global environmental security. The Pumqu River Basin (PRB) is located in an area with extremely vulnerable ecological environment, where climate change is obvious. Understanding wetland distribution, changes and causes in the PRB are of great importance to the rational management and protection of wetlands. Using the Landsat series satellite images, wetlands of this area in 2000, 2010, and 2018 were extracted. The results showed that (1) there were obvious regional differences in wetland types and their distribution patterns in the basin. Wetlands were mainly distributed in areas with slopes less than 12° and at elevations between 4000 m and 5500 m. (2) During the past 20 years, the wetland area in the basin decreased, and the changing trend of wetlands was different. Palustrine wetlands decreased tremendously, riverine and lacustrine wetlands first decreased and then increased, while floodplain wetlands first increased and then decreased. Palustrine wetlands were reclaimed to cultivated land, but the proportion of reclamation is small. (3) Climate dominated wetland changes in the PRB. The changes in riverine and lacustrine wetlands were mainly affected by the warm-season average temperature, the change in palustrine wetlands was mainly related to the annual precipitation and the warm-season average temperature, and the change in floodplain wetlands was related to the warm-season precipitation. To achieve sustainable development, the government plays a guiding role and actively formulates and implements wetland protection policies, such as restricting or prohibiting grazing on wetlands, which play an important role in wetland protection and restoration.

RevDate: 2021-04-02

Hermoso V, Regos A, Morán-Ordóñez A, et al (2021)

Tree-planting: a double-edged sword to fight climate change in an era of megafires.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

The world´s forests are one of the largest carbon sinks, making a substantial contribution to counterbalance the increase in atmospheric carbon from anthropogenic sources (Bastin et al., 2019). For this reason, there is broad support to forest conservation and restoration as an effective way to fight climate change. The European Union, following the Green Deal roadmap towards a decarbonization of the economy, has committed to ambitious habitat restoration goals in particular those with the most potential to capture and store carbon.

RevDate: 2021-04-03

Pappo E, Wilson C, SL Flory (2021)

Hybrid coffee cultivars may enhance agroecosystem resilience to climate change.

AoB PLANTS, 13(2):plab010.

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns that will be detrimental for global agriculture. Developing comprehensive strategies for building climate resilient agroecosystems is critical for maintaining future crop production. Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is highly sensitive to the quantity and timing of precipitation, so alterations in precipitation patterns that are predicted under climate change are likely to be a major challenge for maintaining coffee agroecosystems. We assessed cultivar selection as a potential component of more resilient coffee agroecosystems by evaluating water stress responses among five Arabica coffee cultivars (clonal hybrids H10 and H1 and seedling lines Catuai 44, Catuai, and Villa Sarchi) using a precipitation reduction experiment in the highlands of Tarrazú, Costa Rica. During the first harvest (eighteen months after planting), plants under the rainout treatment had 211 % greater total fruit weight and over 50 % greater biomass than under the control treatment, potentially due to protection from unusually high rainfall during this period of our experiment. At the second harvest (30 months after planting), after a year of more typical rainfall, plants under rainout still produced 66 % more fruit by weight than under control. The magnitude of the responses varied among cultivars where, at the first harvest, H10 and H1 had approximately 92 % and 81 % greater fruit production and 18 % and 22 % greater biomass, respectively, and at the second harvest H10 had 60 % more fruit production than the overall average. Thus, our findings suggest that the hybrid lines H10 and H1 are more resilient than the other cultivars to the stress of high soil moisture. Overall, our results indicate that stress due to higher than average rainfall could impair coffee plant growth and production, and that cultivar selection is likely to be an important tool for maintaining the viability of coffee production, and the resilience of global agroecosystems more generally, under climate change.

RevDate: 2021-04-01

Petherick AS, Reuther JD, Shirar SJ, et al (2021)

Dietary ecology of Alaskan polar bears (Ursus maritimus) through time and in response to Arctic climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Arctic climate change poses serious threats to polar bears (Ursus maritimus) as reduced sea ice makes seal prey inaccessible and marine ecosystems undergo bottom-up reorganization. Polar bears' elongated skulls and reduced molar dentition, as compared to their sister species the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos), are adaptations associated with hunting seals on sea ice and a soft, lipid-rich diet of blubber and meat. With significant declines in sea ice, it is unclear if and how polar bears may be altering their diets. Clarifying polar bear dietary responses to changing climates, both today and in the past, is critical to proper conservation and management of this apex predator. This is particularly important when a dietary strategy may be maladaptive. Here, we test the hypothesis that hard-food consumption (i.e., less preferred foods including bone), inferred from dental microwear texture analysis, increased with Arctic warming. We find that polar bears demonstrate a conserved absence of hard-object feeding in Alaska through time (including approximately 1000 years ago), until the 21st century, consistent with a highly conserved and specialized diet of soft blubber and flesh. Notably, our results also suggest that some 21st-century polar bears may be consuming harder foods (e.g., increased carcass utilization, terrestrial foods including garbage), despite having skulls and metabolisms poorly suited for such a diet. Prior to the 21st century, only polar bears with larger mandibles demonstrated increased hard-object feeding, though to a much lower degree than closely related grizzly bears which regularly consume mechanically challenging foods. Polar bears, being morphologically specialized, have biomechanical constraints which may limit their ability to consume mechanically challenging diets, with dietary shifts occurring only under the most extreme scenarios. Collectively, the highly specialized diets and cranial morphology of polar bears may severely limit their ability to adapt to a warming Arctic.

RevDate: 2021-04-06
CmpDate: 2021-04-06

Naughten KA, De Rydt J, Rosier SHR, et al (2021)

Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change.

Nature communications, 12(1):1991.

A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail.

RevDate: 2021-04-01

Benati G, C Guerriero (2021)

Climate change and state evolution.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(14):.

Despite the vast evidence on the short-run effects of adverse climate shocks on the economy, our understanding of their long-run impact on institutions is limited. To tackle such a key issue, a vast body of research has focused on ancient societies because of the limited complexity of their economies and their unparalleled experience with environmental and institutional change. Notably, the "collapse archaeology" literature has reported countless correlations consistent with the mantra that severe droughts are bound to trigger institutional crises. This conclusion, however, has been recently challenged by a stream of papers that, building on more detailed data on Bronze Age Mesopotamia and a more credible theory-based empirical strategy, have yielded the following two results. First, severe droughts pushed the elites to grant strong political and property rights to the nonelites to convince them that a sufficient part of the returns on joint investments would be shared via public good provision and, thus, to cooperate and accumulate a culture of cooperation. Second, a more favorable climate allowed the elites to elicit cooperation under less inclusive political regimes as well as a weaker culture of cooperation and, possibly, incomplete property rights. These patterns emphasize the importance of considering the asymmetric effect of droughts and, more generally, combining natural and social sciences for the evaluation of climate-related policies.

RevDate: 2021-04-02

van Dalen HP, K Henkens (2021)

Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers.

European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie [Epub ahead of print].

What role does population play in thinking about the problem of climate change and some of its solutions? In a survey conducted between February and April 2020, we asked European demographers to state their views on the relationship between climate change and population developments, and asked them to rate their concern about climate change and other socio-demographic issues. We found that climate change is at the top of the list of demographers' concerns, but that their sense of urgency with respect to taking action to redress global warming is not matched by their belief that population policy can make a crucial difference in reducing CO2 emissions: demographers are highly divided on the question whether the global population size should be reduced to lower CO2 emissions, as well as on the question whether family planning is an effective policy instrument.

RevDate: 2021-04-09
CmpDate: 2021-04-09

Müller T (2021)

People of faith are allies to stall climate change.

Nature, 592(7852):9.

RevDate: 2021-04-08

Neate-Clegg MHC, Stuart SN, Mtui D, et al (2021)

Afrotropical montane birds experience upslope shifts and range contractions along a fragmented elevational gradient in response to global warming.

PloS one, 16(3):e0248712.

Global warming is predicted to result in upslope shifts in the elevational ranges of bird species in montane habitats. Yet few studies have examined changes over time in the elevational distribution of species along fragmented gradients in response to global warming. Here, we report on a resurvey of an understory bird community in the Usambara Mountains in Tanzania, along a forested elevational gradient that has been fragmented over the last 200 years. In 2019, we resurveyed seven sites, ranging in elevation from 360 m to 2110 m, that were originally surveyed between 1979 and 1981. We calculated differences in mean elevation and lower and upper range limits for 29 species between the two time periods and corrected for possible differences in elevation due to chance. Over four decades, we documented a significant mean upslope shift across species of 93 m. This shift was smaller than the 125 m expected shift due to local climate warming. Of the 29 focal species, 19 shifted upslope, eight downslope, and two remained unchanged. Mean upslope shifts in species were driven largely by contracting lower range limits which moved significantly upslope on average across species by 183 m, while upper range limits shifted non-significantly upslope by 72 m, leading to a mean range contraction of 114 m across species. Community composition of understory bird species also shifted over time, with current communities resembling communities found historically at lower elevations. Past forest fragmentation in combination with the limited gap-crossing ability of many tropical understory bird species are very likely important contributory factors to the observed asymmetrical shifts in lower and upper elevational range limits. Re-establishing forested linkages among the largest and closest forest fragments in the Eastern Arc Mountains are critical to permitting species to shift upslope and to reduce further elevational range contractions over time.

RevDate: 2021-04-02

Mele M, Gurrieri AR, Morelli G, et al (2021)

Nature and climate change effects on economic growth: an LSTM experiment on renewable energy resources.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Global energy demand increases overtime, especially in emerging market economies, producing potential negative environmental impacts, particularly on the long term, on nature and climate changes. Promoting renewables is a robust policy action in world energy-based economies. This study examines if an increase in renewables production has a positive effect on the Brazilian economy, partially offsetting the SARS-CoV2 outbreak recession. Using data on Brazilian economy, we test the contribution of renewables on the economy via a ML architecture (through a LSTM model). Empirical findings show that an ever-greater use of renewables may sustain the economic growth recovery, generating a better performing GDP acceleration vs. other energy variables.

RevDate: 2021-03-30

Jayasinghe SL, Kumar L, E Kaliyadasa (2021)

The future of high-quality Ceylon tea seems bleak in the face of climate change.

International journal of biometeorology [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding the interactive effects and relationships between biochemical elements of tea leaves and the related factors, particularly climatic, cultivar, and geographic, is key for high-quality Ceylon tea production. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate the effects of season × cultivar × agro-ecological regions (AERs) on the four tested biochemicals in fresh tea leaves, total polyphenol content (TPC), free sugar, protein, and theanine; (2) determine the relationships between, and develop a model to estimate, the biochemicals and their related factors; and (3) project the potential concentrations and distributions of four tested biochemicals in tea leaves with respect to the current and future climate. This study primarily uses inferential statistics via the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), cross-validation using R software, and the inverse distance weighting (IDW) approach in ArcGIS. The results demonstrate that the season, cultivar (Ceylon tea cultivars of TRI 2025 and TRI 4053), and AER and their interactions on biochemicals have significant effects (p < 0.05). The models derived in the regression analysis demonstrate the strong relationships between the independent variables and the biochemicals, with multiple correlation coefficients (R) around 0.8 and coefficient of determination (R2) around 0.6. The low standard deviation of error of prediction (SDEP < 0.1) and the high correlation coefficient of leave-one-out cross-validation (Q2) for all four biochemicals ranged from 0.56 to 0.61, which signifies the predictive ability of the models. The future projections show a considerable increase in the thresholds of all tested biochemicals. The distribution category with 'very high' concentrations of TPC and theanine is predicted to increase in the future by averages of 10% and 14%, respectively, while reducing the classes of protein and free sugar by 14% and 12%, respectively. Overall, the changing concentrations of the thresholds of relevant biochemicals and their distribution will negatively affect the final quality of tea, and these variations indicate that climate change has started to diminish Ceylon tea quality.

RevDate: 2021-04-02

Mainuddin M, Karim F, Gaydon DS, et al (2021)

Impact of climate change and management strategies on water and salt balance of the polders and islands in the Ganges delta.

Scientific reports, 11(1):7041.

Enhancing crop production, particularly by growing a crop in the typically-fallow dry season is a key strategy for alleviating poverty in the Ganges delta region. We used a polder water and salt balance model to examine the impact of several crop management, salt management and climate change scenarios on salinity and crop evapotranspiration at Dacope and Amtali in Bangladesh and Gosaba in India. A key (and unsurprising) finding is that salt management is very important, particularly at the two drier sites, Dacope and Gosaba. Good salt management lowers salinity in the shallow groundwater, soil and water storage ponds, and leads to more irrigation. Climate change is projected to alter rainfall, and this in turn leads to modelled increases or decreases in runoff from the polders, and thence affect salt concentrations in the soil and ponds and canals. Thus, the main impacts of climate change are through the indirect impacts on salt concentrations, rather than the direct impacts of the amount of water supplied as rainfall. Management practices to remove salt from polders are therefore likely to be effective in combatting the impacts of projected climate change particularly at Dacope and Gosaba.

RevDate: 2021-04-02

Borevitz J (2021)

Utilizing genomics to understand and respond to global climate change.

Genome biology, 22(1):91 pii:10.1186/s13059-021-02317-y.

RevDate: 2021-04-02

Cameron L, Rocque R, Penner K, et al (2021)

Public perceptions of Lyme disease and climate change in southern Manitoba, Canada: making a case for strategic decoupling of climate and health messages.

BMC public health, 21(1):617.

BACKGROUND: Despite scientific evidence that climate change has profound and far reaching implications for public health, translating this knowledge in a manner that supports citizen engagement, applied decision-making, and behavioural change can be challenging. This is especially true for complex vector-borne zoonotic diseases such as Lyme disease, a tick-borne disease which is increasing in range and impact across Canada and internationally in large part due to climate change. This exploratory research aims to better understand public risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease in order to increase engagement and motivate behavioural change.

METHODS: A focus group study involving 61 participants was conducted in three communities in the Canadian Prairie province of Manitoba in 2019. Focus groups were segmented by urban, rural, and urban-rural geographies, and between participants with high and low levels of self-reported concern regarding climate change.

RESULTS: Findings indicate a broad range of knowledge and risk perceptions on both climate change and Lyme disease, which seem to reflect the controversy and complexity of both issues in the larger public discourse. Participants in high climate concern groups were found to have greater climate change knowledge, higher perception of risk, and less skepticism than those in low concern groups. Participants outside of the urban centre were found to have more familiarity with ticks, Lyme disease, and preventative behaviours, identifying differential sources of resilience and vulnerability. Risk perceptions of climate change and Lyme disease were found to vary independently rather than correlate, meaning that high climate change risk perception did not necessarily indicate high Lyme disease risk perception and vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS: This research contributes to the growing literature framing climate change as a public health issue, and suggests that in certain cases climate and health messages might be framed in a way that strategically decouples the issue when addressing climate skeptical audiences. A model showing the potential relationship between Lyme disease and climate change perceptions is proposed, and implications for engagement on climate change health impacts are discussed.

RevDate: 2021-03-30

Harries AD, Martinez L, JM Chakaya (2021)

Tackling climate change: measuring the carbon footprint of preventing, diagnosing and treating TB.

Public health action, 11(1):40.

RevDate: 2021-03-30

Moroz M, Jackson ISC, Ramirez D, et al (2021)

Divergent morphological responses to millennia of climate change in two species of bats from Hall's Cave, Texas, USA.

PeerJ, 9:e10856.

How species will respond to ongoing and future climate change is one of the most important questions facing biodiversity scientists today. The fossil record provides unparalleled insight into past ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change, but the resource remains virtually untapped for many organisms. We use geometric morphometrics and a 25,000 year fossil record to quantify changes in body size and mandible shape through time and across climate regimes for two bat species present in Quaternary paleontological deposits of central Texas: Myotis velifer, a bat distributed throughout the Southwestern US and Mexico that is still found in central Texas today, and Eptesicus fuscus, a bat widely distributed throughout North America that has been extirpated in central Texas. Because of ecogeographic rules like Bergmann's rule, which posits that endotherms are larger in colder environments, we hypothesized that both species were larger during cooler time intervals. Additionally, we hypothesized that both species would show variation in dental morphology across the studied sequence as a response to climate change. While we found a decrease in centroid size-a proxy for --body size-through time for both species, we could not establish a clear relationship between centroid size and temperature alone. However, we did find that specimens from drier environments were significantly larger than those from wetter ones. Furthermore, we found significant dental shape variation between environments reflecting different temperature levels for both species. Yet only M. velifer exhibited significant variation between environments of varying precipitation levels. This result was surprising because present-day populations of E. fuscus are highly variable across both temperature and precipitation gradients. We determined that the morphological change experienced by M. velifer through time, and between warmer and cooler temperatures, was associated with the coronoid process, condylar process, and the mandibular symphysis. These parts play a pivotal role in bite force, so changes in these features might relate to changes in diet. We show that long-term datasets derived from fossil material provide invaluable insight not only into the validity of ecogeographic rules, but also into the adaptive capacities of extant taxa when faced with environmental changes. Our results highlight diverging responses to a variety of climate factors that are relevant to consider in biodiversity research given ongoing global change.

RevDate: 2021-03-30

Geml J, Morgado LN, TA Semenova-Nelsen (2021)

Tundra Type Drives Distinct Trajectories of Functional and Taxonomic Composition of Arctic Fungal Communities in Response to Climate Change - Results From Long-Term Experimental Summer Warming and Increased Snow Depth.

Frontiers in microbiology, 12:628746.

The arctic tundra is undergoing climate-driven changes and there are serious concerns related to the future of arctic biodiversity and altered ecological processes under possible climate change scenarios. Arctic land surface temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase further, likely causing major transformation in terrestrial ecosystems. As a response to increasing temperatures, shifts in vegetation and soil fungal communities have already been observed. Little is known, however, how long-term experimental warming coupled with increased snow depth influence the trajectories of soil fungal communities in different tundra types. We compared edaphic variables and fungal community composition in experimental plots simulating the expected increase in summer warming and winter snow depth, based on DNA metabarcoding data. Fungal communities in the sampled dry and moist acidic tundra communities differed greatly, with tundra type explaining ca. one-third of compositional variation. Furthermore, dry and moist tundra appear to have different trajectories in response to climate change. Specifically, while both warming and increased snow depth had significant effects on fungal community composition and edaphic variables in dry tundra, the effect of increased snow was greater. However, in moist tundra, fungal communities mainly were affected by summer warming, while increased snow depth had a smaller effect and only on some functional groups. In dry tundra, microorganisms generally are limited by moisture in the summer and extremely low temperatures in winter, which is in agreement with the stronger effect of increased snow depth relative to warming. On the contrary, moist tundra soils generally are saturated with water, remain cold year-round and show relatively small seasonal fluctuations in temperature. The greater observed effect of warming on fungi in moist tundra may be explained by the narrower temperature optimum compared to those in dry tundra.

RevDate: 2021-03-28

Cabrera López C, Urrutia Landa I, CA Jiménez-Ruiz (2021)

SEPAR's Year: Air Quality. SEPAR Statement on Climate Change.

RevDate: 2021-04-12

Montoya M, Vallejo A, Corrochano-Monsalve M, et al (2021)

Mitigation of yield-scaled nitrous oxide emissions and global warming potential in an oilseed rape crop through N source management.

Journal of environmental management, 288:112304 pii:S0301-4797(21)00366-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Enhanced-efficiency nitrogen (N) fertilizers, such as those containing nitrification or urease inhibitors, can mitigate the carbon (C) footprint linked to the production of bioenergy crops through a reduction in direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and indirect N2O losses. These indirect emissions are derived from ammonia (NH3) volatilization, which also have important environmental and health implications. The evaluation of the global warming potential (GWP) of different N sources using site-specific data of yield and direct and indirect emissions is needed for oilseed rape under rainfed semi-arid conditions, especially when meteorological variability is taken into account. Using urea as a N source, the N2O mitigation efficacy of the urease inhibitor N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) alone or combined with the nitrification inhibitor 2-(3,4-dimethyl-1H-pyrazol-1-yl) succinic acid isomeric mixture (DMPSA) was evaluated under field conditions in a rainfed oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) crop. Two additional N sources from calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), with and without DMPSA, were included. The GWP of the treatments was estimated considering the emissions from inputs, operations and other direct and indirect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and the volatilization of NH3. We also measured the abundance of key genes involved in nitrification and denitrification to improve the understanding of N2O emissions on a biochemical basis under the conditions of our study. The results show that due to the intense rainfall after fertilization and a rewetting event, N2O losses from fertilizers without inhibitors were greater than those previously reported under Mediterranean conditions, while NH3 losses were low and not affected by the urease inhibitor. The cumulative N2O emissions (which were greatly influenced by a rewetting peak three months after fertilization) from the urea fertilization were significantly higher than those from CAN. The presence of NBPT significantly reduced N2O losses by an average of 71%, with respect to urea. The use of DMPSA with CAN resulted in an abatement of N2O emissions (by 57%) and a significant increase in oil yield in comparison with CAN alone. All inhibitor-based treatments were effective in abating N2O emissions during the rewetting peak. The abundances of the nitrifier and denitrifier communities, especially ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB), significantly decreased relative to the urea or CAN treatments as inhibitors were applied. Under the conditions of our study, the sustainability of a bioenergy crop such as oilseed rape can be improved by using inhibitors because they mitigated N2O emissions and/or enhanced the oil yield.

RevDate: 2021-03-30

Weinstein P, P Daszak (2021)

Failing Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change are a Futile Band-Aid that will not Stop Other Elephants Filling the Room.

RevDate: 2021-04-03

Kurganskiy A, Creer S, de Vere N, et al (2021)

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe.

Science advances, 7(13):.

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season.

RevDate: 2021-04-01

Luo Z, Wang X, Yang S, et al (2021)

Combining the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change for an East Asian endemic frog.

Frontiers in zoology, 18(1):14.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the impacts of past and contemporary climate change on biodiversity is critical for effective conservation. Amphibians have weak dispersal abilities, putting them at risk of habitat fragmentation and loss. Both climate change and anthropogenic disturbances exacerbate these risks, increasing the likelihood of additional amphibian extinctions in the near future. The giant spiny frog (Quasipaa spinosa), an endemic species to East Asia, has faced a dramatic population decline over the last few decades. Using the giant spiny frog as an indicator to explore how past and future climate changes affect landscape connectivity, we characterized the shifts in the suitable habitat and habitat connectivity of the frog.

RESULTS: We found a clear northward shift and a reduction in the extent of suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum for giant spiny frogs; since that time, there has been an expansion of the available habitat. Our modelling showed that "overwarm" climatic conditions would most likely cause a decrease in the available habitat and an increase in the magnitude of population fragmentation in the future. We found that the habitat connectivity of the studied frogs will decrease by 50-75% under future climate change. Our results strengthen the notion that the mountains in southern China and the Sino-Vietnamese transboundary regions can act as critical refugia and priority areas of conservation planning going forward.

CONCLUSIONS: Given that amphibians are highly sensitive to environmental changes, our findings highlight that the responses of habitat suitability and connectivity to climate change can be critical considerations in future conservation measures for species with weak dispersal abilities and should not be neglected, as they all too often are.

RevDate: 2021-03-29
CmpDate: 2021-03-29

Khalili P, Masud B, Qian B, et al (2021)

Non-stationary response of rain-fed spring wheat yield to future climate change in northern latitudes.

The Science of the total environment, 772:145474.

The non-stationary response of crop growth to changes in hydro-climatic variables makes yield projection uncertain and the design and implementation of adaptation strategies debatable. This study simulated the time-varying behavior of the underlying cause-and-effect mechanisms affecting spring wheat yield (SWY) under various climate change and nitrogen (N) application scenarios in the Red Deer River basin in agricultural lands of the western Canadian Prairies. A calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Analysis of Variance decomposition methods were utilized to assess the contribution of crop growth parameters, Global Climate Models, Representative Concentration Pathways, and downscaling techniques to the total SWY variance for the 2040-2064 period. The results showed that the cause-and-effect mechanisms, driving crop yield, shifted from water stress (W-stress) dominated (27 days of W-stress days) during the historical period to nitrogen stress (N-stress) dominated (27 to 35 N-stress days) in the future period. It was shown that while higher precipitation, warmer weather, and early snowmelts, along with elevated CO2 may favor SWY in cold regions in the future (up to 50% more yields in some sub-basins), the yield potentials may be limited by N-stress (only up to 0.7% yield increase in some sub-basins). The N-stress might be partially related to the N deficiency in the soil, which can be compensated by N fertilizer application. However, inadequate N uptake due to limited evapotranspiration under elevated atmospheric CO2 might pose restrictions to SWY potentials even in the least N deficient regions. This study uncovers important information on the understanding of spatiotemporal variability of hydrogeochemical processes driving crop yields and the non-stationary response of yields to changing climate. The results also underscore spatiotemporal variability of N-stress due to N deficiency in the soil or N uptake by crops, both of which may restrain SWY by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the future.

RevDate: 2021-03-27

Mihiretu A, Okoyo EN, T Lemma (2021)

Causes, indicators and impacts of climate change: understanding the public discourse in Goat based agro-pastoral livelihood zone, Ethiopia.

Heliyon, 7(3):e06529.

This study assessed the perceived causes, indicators and impacts of climate change by disaggregating farmers in to adaptor and non-adaptor groups in Goat based agro-pastoral livelihood zone of Ethiopia. The collected quantitative and qualitative data were analysed in descriptive statistics, linear regression, anomaly index, Likert rating scale and conceptual narrations. The findings demonstrated that an increasing temperature and a decreasing rainfall trends were perceived by farmers across the study decades. Higher deforestation rate, rash natural resource exploitation, poor soil and water management rehearses and alarming population growth in descending order were identified as climate change causes. Livestock and crop yield decline, livestock/human diseases epidemics and death, as well as recurrent conflicts due to grazing land were its associated impacts. The status and nature of climate change causes, indicators and impacts were however significantly diverse within similar awareness groups. To mitigate its adverse impacts, the farmers were thus applied livestock, crop and non-agriculture related adaptation strategies. Shortage of finance and eligible household labor combined with the absence of climate related information, training and extension services were hindered farmers to take any measure to the climate change. Therefore, to encourage the farmers' responsiveness, the finding underlines the importance of supplying applicable as well as legitimate natural resource exploitation system, followed by access to climate related information, awareness rising trainings, credit and input delivery services at local and community level.

RevDate: 2021-03-27

Razgour O, Kasso M, Santos H, et al (2021)

Up in the air: Threats to Afromontane biodiversity from climate change and habitat loss revealed by genetic monitoring of the Ethiopian Highlands bat.

Evolutionary applications, 14(3):794-806.

While climate change is recognized as a major future threat to biodiversity, most species are currently threatened by extensive human-induced habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Tropical high-altitude alpine and montane forest ecosystems and their biodiversity are particularly sensitive to temperature increases under climate change, but they are also subject to accelerated pressures from land conversion and degradation due to a growing human population. We studied the combined effects of anthropogenic land-use change, past and future climate changes and mountain range isolation on the endemic Ethiopian Highlands long-eared bat, Plecotus balensis, an understudied bat that is restricted to the remnant natural high-altitude Afroalpine and Afromontane habitats. We integrated ecological niche modelling, landscape genetics and model-based inference to assess the genetic, geographic and demographic impacts of past and recent environmental changes. We show that mountain range isolation and historic climates shaped population structure and patterns of genetic variation, but recent anthropogenic land-use change and habitat degradation are associated with a severe population decline and loss of genetic diversity. Models predict that the suitable niche of this bat has been progressively shrinking since the last glaciation period. This study highlights threats to Afroalpine and Afromontane biodiversity, squeezed to higher altitudes under climate change while losing genetic diversity and suffering population declines due to anthropogenic land-use change. We conclude that the conservation of tropical montane biodiversity requires a holistic approach, using genetic, ecological and geographic information to understand the effects of environmental changes across temporal scales and simultaneously addressing the impacts of multiple threats.

RevDate: 2021-04-14

Lubinda J, Haque U, Bi Y, et al (2021)

Climate change and the dynamics of age-related malaria incidence in Southern Africa.

Environmental research, 197:111017 pii:S0013-9351(21)00311-X [Epub ahead of print].

In the last decade, many malaria-endemic countries, like Zambia, have achieved significant reductions in malaria incidence among children <5 years old but face ongoing challenges in achieving similar progress against malaria in older age groups. In parts of Zambia, changing climatic and environmental factors are among those suspectedly behind high malaria incidence. Changes and variations in these factors potentially interfere with intervention program effectiveness and alter the distribution and incidence patterns of malaria differentially between young children and the rest of the population. We used parametric and non-parametric statistics to model the effects of climatic and socio-demographic variables on age-specific malaria incidence vis-à-vis control interventions. Linear regressions, mixed models, and Mann-Kendall tests were implemented to explore trends, changes in trends, and regress malaria incidence against environmental and intervention variables. Our study shows that while climate parameters affect the whole population, their impacts are felt most by people aged ≥5 years. Climate variables influenced malaria substantially more than mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying interventions. We establish that climate parameters negatively impact malaria control efforts by exacerbating the transmission conditions via more conducive temperature and rainfall environments, which are augmented by cultural and socioeconomic exposure mechanisms. We argue that an intensified communications and education intervention strategy for behavioural change specifically targeted at ≥5 aged population where incidence rates are increasing, is urgently required and call for further malaria stratification among the ≥5 age groups in the routine collection, analysis and reporting of malaria mortality and incidence data.

RevDate: 2021-03-30

Rodrigues M, Rosa A, Cravo A, et al (2021)

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures in the water quality of a coastal lagoon (Ria Formosa, Portugal).

The Science of the total environment, 780:146311 pii:S0048-9697(21)01379-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding how climatic and anthropogenic drivers will influence coastal lagoons is fundamental to guarantee their preservation and sustainability. The Ria Formosa (coastal lagoon, South coast of Portugal) is a very important ecosystem that supports diverse economic activities in the region. The 3D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model SCHISM was validated and used to assess the influence of climate change and anthropogenic pressures on the water quality of the Ria Formosa. Five scenarios were simulated: reference scenario (S0), mean sea level rise (SLR) of 0.5 m (S1), increase of the air temperature of 1.68 °C (S2), increase of the outflow from the wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) by 50% (S3) and a combined scenario (S4). Results suggest that SLR of 0.5 m promotes an increase of 0.5-3 in the salinity near the area of influence of the WWTP. SLR decreases the inorganic nutrient concentrations in these areas by about 40-60%, due to an increase of the dilution. In contrast, the increase of the outflow from the WWTP by 50% increases the nutrients concentrations by about 20-40%. The increase of the air temperature alone by 1.68 °C increases the water temperature by 0-1 °C. The combined scenario suggests antagonist effects in the nutrient concentrations. Overall, the trophic index (TRIX) of the lagoon calculated for the scenarios exhibits only minor differences relative to the reference scenario, except in some areas near the WWTP discharges. In these areas, TRIX tends to increase with the increase of the outflow from the WWTP in scenario S3. These results provide further insight into the response of coastal lagoons, and the Ria Formosa in particular, to future changes and contribute to support their management.

RevDate: 2021-03-25

Jiang H, Yu Y, Chen MM, et al (2021)

The climate change vulnerability of China: spatial evolution and driving factors.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

To cope with climate change, it is of great importance to describe the temporal and spatial evolution of climate change vulnerability and its driving factors. Therefore, this paper establishes a comprehensive index of vulnerability to climate change based on the vulnerability scoring diagram (VSD) framework. Moran's I index is used to study the spatial evolution characteristics of vulnerability, and spatial regression analysis is used to explore the factors influencing the spatial distribution of vulnerability. The results show that (1) the climate change vulnerability of China has decreased over time, and the sensitivity state is relatively stable; however, the annual change in exposure and adaptive capacity is significant. (2) The western region of China is more vulnerable than the eastern region, and the most vulnerable provinces are Guizhou and Gansu. (3) The regional vulnerability is generally in a significant spatial agglomeration state. (4) Finally, the driving factors of the spatial distribution of climate change vulnerability include forest coverage, the urban-rural income gap and information technology. These recommendations provide detailed discussions and scientific information for mitigating global warming and formulating long-term emission reduction targets, thereby optimizing resource allocation and providing spatial governance directions for the formulation of adaptation policies.

RevDate: 2021-03-25

Bandh SA, Shafi S, Peerzada M, et al (2021)

Multidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Even though climate change involves much more than warming, it is the name given to a set of physical phenomena. It is a long-term change in weather patterns that characterises different regions of the world. The warming effect in the earth's atmosphere has dramatically increased through the influence of some heat-taping gases emitted by various human activities, especially fossil fuel burning. The more the input of such gases, the more will be the warming effect in the coming times. Global climate change is already visible in various parts of the larger ecosystems like forests, fisheries, biodiversity, and agriculture; however, it is now also influencing the supply of freshwater, human health, and well-being. This paper reviews climate change drivers, its global scenario, major global events, and assessing climate change impacts. The most daunting problem of economic and ecological risks, along with the threats to humanity, is also discussed. The paper further reviews the species' vulnerability to climate change and the heat waves and human migration vis-à-vis climate change. Climate change politics and coverage of climate change episodes in mass media is the special focus of this review that concludes with a few mitigation measures.

RevDate: 2021-03-26

Uga Y (2021)

Challenges to design-oriented breeding of root system architecture adapted to climate change.

Breeding science, 71(1):3-12.

Roots are essential organs for capturing water and nutrients from the soil. In particular, root system architecture (RSA) determines the extent of the region of the soil where water and nutrients can be gathered. As global climate change accelerates, it will be important to improve belowground plant parts, as well as aboveground ones, because roots are front-line organs in the response to abiotic stresses such as drought, flooding, and salinity stress. However, using conventional breeding based on phenotypic selection, it is difficult to select breeding lines possessing promising RSAs to adapted to abiotic stress because roots remain hidden underground. Therefore, new breeding strategies that do not require phenotypic selection are necessary. Recent advances in molecular biology and biotechnology can be applied to the design-oriented breeding of RSA without phenotypic selection. Here I summarize recent progress in RSA ideotypes as "design" and RSA-related gene resources as "materials" that will be needed in leveraging these technologies for the RSA breeding. I also highlight the future challenges to design-oriented breeding of RSA and explore solutions to these challenges.

RevDate: 2021-03-25

Degroot D, Anchukaitis K, Bauch M, et al (2021)

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change.

Nature, 591(7851):539-550.

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.

RevDate: 2021-04-06

Bryson JM, Patterson K, Berrang-Ford L, et al (2021)

Seasonality, climate change, and food security during pregnancy among indigenous and non-indigenous women in rural Uganda: Implications for maternal-infant health.

PloS one, 16(3):e0247198.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is expected to decrease food security globally. Many Indigenous communities have heightened sensitivity to climate change and food insecurity for multifactorial reasons including close relationships with the local environment and socioeconomic inequities which increase exposures and challenge adaptation to climate change. Pregnant women have additional sensitivity to food insecurity, as antenatal undernutrition is linked with poor maternal-infant health. This study examined pathways through which climate change influenced food security during pregnancy among Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in rural Uganda. Specific objectives were to characterize: 1) sensitivities to climate-associated declines in food security for pregnant Indigenous women; 2) women's perceptions of climate impacts on food security during pregnancy; and 3) changes in food security and maternal-infant health over time, as observed by women.

METHODS: Using a community-based research approach, we conducted eight focus group discussions-four in Indigenous Batwa communities and four in non-Indigenous communities-in Kanungu District, Uganda, on the subject of climate and food security during pregnancy. Thirty-six women with ≥1 pregnancy participated. Data were analysed using a constant comparative method and thematic analysis.

RESULTS: Women indicated that food insecurity was common during pregnancy and had a bidirectional relationship with antenatal health issues. Food security was thought to be decreasing due to weather changes including extended droughts and unpredictable seasons harming agriculture. Women linked food insecurity with declines in maternal-infant health over time, despite improved antenatal healthcare. While all communities described food security struggles, the challenges Indigenous women identified and described were more severe.

CONCLUSIONS: Programs promoting women's adaptive capacity to climate change are required to improve food security for pregnant women and maternal-infant health. These interventions are particularly needed in Indigenous communities, which often face underlying health inequities. However, resiliency among mothers was strong and, with supports, they can reduce food security challenges in a changing climate.

RevDate: 2021-03-24

Zhang S, Braithwaite I, Bhavsar V, et al (2021)

Unequal effects of climate change and pre-existing inequalities on the mental health of global populations.

BJPsych bulletin pii:S2056469421000267 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is already having unequal effects on the mental health of individuals and communities and will increasingly compound pre-existing mental health inequalities globally. Psychiatrists have a vital part to play in improving both awareness and scientific understanding of structural mechanisms that perpetuate these inequalities, and in responding to global calls for action to promote climate justice and resilience, which are central foundations for good mental and physical health.

RevDate: 2021-03-24

Storkey J, Mead A, Addy J, et al (2021)

Agricultural intensification and climate change have increased the threat from weeds.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Weeds represent a significant threat to crop yields and global food security. We analysed data on weed competition from the world's longest running agricultural experiment to ask whether potential yield losses from weeds have increased in response to management and environmental change since the advent of the Green Revolution in the 1960s. On plots where inorganic nitrogen fertiliser has been applied, potential yield losses from weeds have consistently increased since 1969. This was explained by a warming climate, measured as air temperature averaged over the growing season for the weeds, and a shift towards shorter crop cultivars. Weeds also reduced yield proportionally more on plots with higher rates of nitrogen which had higher yields when weeds were controlled; the relative benefit of herbicides was, therefore, proportional to potential crop yield. Reducing yield losses from weed competition is increasingly challenging because of the evolution of herbicide resistance. Our results demonstrate that weeds now represent a greater inherent threat to crop production than before the advent of herbicides and integrated, sustainable solutions to weed management are urgently needed to protect the high yield potential of modern crop genotypes.

RevDate: 2021-03-24
CmpDate: 2021-03-24

Lin SZ, Ge QS, HJ Wang (2021)

Spatiotemporal variations in leaf-out phenology of typical European tree species and their responses to climate change.

Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology, 32(3):788-798.

Over the past decades, global warming significantly affected the spring phenology of plants. Many studies have reported the temporal and spatial patterns of spring phenological changes in China, but relatively less is known for that in Europe, which is also located in the temperate area of the Northern Hemisphere. To facilitate the regional comparison of phenological change and understand its response to climate change, we used the data of first leaf date (FLD) in Europe (1980-2014) and the corresponding meteorological data to examine the spatiotemporal variations in leaf-out phenology of four typical tree species (Aesculus hippocastanum, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, and Quercus robur), and to identify the major climatic factors driving such variations. The results showed that the FLD of the four species in the study area advanced by 3.3-7.5 d·10 a-1 during 1980-2014. The FLD was delayed at a rate of 2.03-3.19 d per degree of latitude from south to north, of 0.19-0.80 d per degree of longitude from west to East (except for Fagus sylvatica), of 2.25-3.44 d·100 m-1 from low to high elevation. The advances in the FLD were mainly attributed to the increases of temperature in spring and the increases of precipitation in spring and winter. The rise of temperature in autumn and winter would delay FLD.

RevDate: 2021-03-26

Yu J, Castellani K, Forysinski K, et al (2021)

Geospatial indicators of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess neighbourhood variation in vulnerability to climate change-related health hazards.

Environmental health : a global access science source, 20(1):31.

BACKGROUND: Although the frequency and magnitude of climate change-related health hazards (CCRHHs) are likely to increase, the population vulnerabilities and corresponding health impacts are dependent on a community's exposures, pre-existing sensitivities, and adaptive capacities in response to a hazard's impact. To evaluate spatial variability in relative vulnerability, we: 1) identified climate change-related risk factors at the dissemination area level; 2) created actionable health vulnerability index scores to map community risks to extreme heat, flooding, wildfire smoke, and ground-level ozone; and 3) spatially evaluated vulnerability patterns and priority areas of action to address inequity.

METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify the determinants of health hazards among populations impacted by CCRHHs. Identified determinants were then grouped into categories of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity and aligned with available data. Data were aggregated to 4188 Census dissemination areas within two health authorities in British Columbia, Canada. A two-step principal component analysis (PCA) was then used to select and weight variables for each relative vulnerability score. In addition to an overall vulnerability score, exposure, adaptive capacity, and sensitivity sub-scores were computed for each hazard. Scores were then categorised into quintiles and mapped.

RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-one epidemiological papers met the study criteria and were used to identify 36 determinant indicators that were operationalized across all hazards. For each hazard, 3 to 5 principal components explaining 72 to 94% of the total variance were retained. Sensitivity was weighted much higher for extreme heat, wildfire smoke and ground-level ozone, and adaptive capacity was highly weighted for flooding vulnerability. There was overall varied contribution of adaptive capacity (16-49%) across all hazards. Distinct spatial patterns were observed - for example, although patterns varied by hazard, vulnerability was generally higher in more deprived and more outlying neighbourhoods of the study region.

CONCLUSIONS: The creation of hazard and category-specific vulnerability indices (exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity sub-scores) supports evidence-based approaches to prioritize public health responses to climate-related hazards and to reduce inequity by assessing relative differences in vulnerability along with absolute impacts. Future studies can build upon this methodology to further understand the spatial variation in vulnerability and to identify and prioritise actionable areas for adaptation.

RevDate: 2021-03-22

Go YH, Lau LS, Ng CF, et al (2021)

Obesity Kuznets curve hypothesis and global warming: a robust estimation under cross-section dependence.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Obesity is a worldwide concern as it leads to adverse effects on human health. This study uses a panel of 165 countries and annual data from 2000 to 2014 to examine the obesity Kuznets curve (OKC) hypothesis. By using tests and estimators that are robust to cross-section dependence (CSD), our results support the OKC hypothesis. This indicates that obesity increases at the initial stage of economic development and eventually would decrease once the threshold is reached. In addition, we find that the role of global warming on obesity is not significant. Food production is found to be a contributing factor to obesity. Besides, one-way and two-way causalities are identified between the variables. This study provides important insights particularly about the relationship between (i) economic growth and obesity and (ii) environmental degradation and obesity. Implication of the results and policy recommendations are also provided to policymakers and health personnel in finding solutions to the obesity epidemic around the world.

RevDate: 2021-03-26

Pascual F (2021)

C O 2 and Lung Function: An in Vivo Exploration of Potential Climate Change Implications.

Environmental health perspectives, 129(3):34002.

RevDate: 2021-03-22

Duchenne F, Martin G, E Porcher (2021)

European plants lagging behind climate change pay a climatic debt in the North, but are favoured in the South.

For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation.

RevDate: 2021-03-22

Crossley MS, Smith OM, Berry LL, et al (2021)

Recent climate change is creating hotspots of butterfly increase and decline across North America.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Some insect populations are experiencing dramatic declines, endangering the crucial ecosystem services they provide. Yet, other populations appear robust, highlighting the need to better define patterns and underlying drivers of recent change in insect numbers. We examined abundance and biodiversity trends for North American butterflies using a unique citizen-science dataset that has recorded observations of over 8 million butterflies across 456 species, 503 sites, nine ecoregions, and 26 years. Butterflies are a biodiverse group of pollinators, herbivores, and prey, making them useful bellwethers of environmental change. We found great heterogeneity in butterfly species' abundance trends, aggregating near zero, but with a tendency toward decline. There was strong spatial clustering, however, into regions of increase, decrease, or relative stasis. Recent precipitation and temperature appeared to largely drive these patterns, with butterflies generally declining at increasingly dry and hot sites but increasing at relatively wet or cool sites. In contrast, landscape and butterfly trait predictors had little influence, though abundance trends were slightly more positive around urban areas. Consistent with varying responses by different species, no overall directional change in butterfly species richness or evenness was detected. Overall, a mosaic of butterfly decay and rebound hotspots appeared to largely reflect geographic variability in climate drivers. Ongoing controversy about insect declines might dissipate with a shift in focus to the causes of heterogeneous responses among taxa and sites, with climate change emerging as a key suspect when pollinator communities are broadly impacted.

RevDate: 2021-03-23

Noël T, Loukos H, Defrance D, et al (2021)

A high-resolution downscaled CMIP5 projections dataset of essential surface climate variables over the globe coherent with the ERA5 reanalysis for climate change impact assessments.

Data in brief, 35:106900.

A high-resolution climate projections dataset is obtained by statistically downscaling climate projections from the CMIP5 experiment using the ERA5 reanalysis from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. This global dataset has a spatial resolution of 0.25°x 0.25°, comprises 21 climate models and includes 5 surface daily variables at monthly resolution: air temperature (mean, minimum, and maximum), precipitation, and mean near-surface wind speed. Two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are available: one with mitigation policy (RCP4.5) and one without mitigation (RCP8.5). The downscaling method is a Quantile Mapping method (QM) called the Cumulative Distribution Function transform (CDF-t) method that was first used for wind values and is now referenced in dozens of peer-reviewed publications. The data processing includes quality control of metadata according to the climate modeling community standards and value checking for outlier detection.

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ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

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Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).

Timelines

ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.

Biographies

Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )