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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 06 Aug 2020 at 01:51 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)


RevDate: 2020-08-05

Kougioumoutzis K, Kokkoris IP, Panitsa M, et al (2020)

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios.

Biology, 9(8): pii:biology9080199.

Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete's plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete's unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the 'Anthropocene' era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.

RevDate: 2020-08-04

Wamelink GWW, Mol-Dijkstra JP, Reinds GJ, et al (2020)

Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 266(Pt 2):115257 pii:S0269-7491(19)33408-6 [Epub ahead of print].

Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.

RevDate: 2020-08-04

Vanderkelen I, Zscheischler J, Gudmundsson L, et al (2020)

Correction to: A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.

The article was published bearing a typographical error to the second author name listed. The author group regret the error and the name should be referenced and credited as Jakob Zscheischler and not the former.

RevDate: 2020-08-04

Liu X, Wu W, Wielicki BA, et al (2017)

Spectrally Dependent CLARREO Infrared Spectrometer Calibration Requirement for Climate Change Detection.

Journal of climate, 30(11):3979-3998.

Detecting climate trends of atmospheric temperature, moisture, cloud, and surface temperature requires accurately calibrated satellite instruments such as the Climate Absolute Radiance and Reflectivity Observatory (CLARREO). Wielicki et al. have studied the CLARREO measurement requirements for achieving climate change accuracy goals in orbit. Our study further quantifies the spectrally dependent IR instrument calibration requirement for detecting trends of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles. The temperature, water vapor, and surface skin temperature variability and the associated correlation time are derived using Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. The results are further validated using climate model simulation results. With the derived natural variability as the reference, the calibration requirement is established by carrying out a simulation study for CLARREO observations of various atmospheric states under all-sky. We derive a 0.04 K (k=2, or 95% confidence) radiometric calibration requirement baseline using a spectral fingerprinting method. We also demonstrate that the requirement is spectrally dependent and some spectral regions can be relaxed due to the hyperspectral nature of the CLARREO instrument. We further discuss relaxing the requirement to 0.06 K (k=2) based on the uncertainties associated with the temperature and water vapor natural variability and relatively small delay in time-to-detect for trends relative to the baseline case. The methodology used in this study can be extended to other parameters (such as clouds and CO2) and other instrument configurations.

RevDate: 2020-08-04

Li F, Vikhliaev YV, Newman PA, et al (2016)

Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Version 5 (GEOS-5).

Journal of climate, 29(9):3199-3218.

Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer's evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. In this study we investigate the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960-2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model's climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979-2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November-December-January. It enhances stratosphere-troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind-stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.

RevDate: 2020-08-03

González-Del-Pliego P, Scheffers BR, Freckleton RP, et al (2020)

Thermal tolerance and the importance of microhabitats for Andean frogs in the context of land-use and climate change.

The Journal of animal ecology [Epub ahead of print].

1. Global warming is having impacts across the Tree of Life. Understanding species' physiological sensitivity to temperature change and how they relate to local temperature variation in their habitats is crucial to determining vulnerability to global warming. 2. We ask how species' vulnerability varies across habitats and elevations, and how climatically-buffered microhabitats can contribute to reduce their vulnerability. 3. We measured thermal sensitivity (critical thermal maximum - CTmax) of 14 species of Pristimantis frogs inhabiting young and old secondary, and primary forests in the Colombian Andes. Exposure to temperature stress was measured by recording temperature in the understory and across five microhabitats. We determined frogs' current vulnerability across habitats, elevations and microhabitats accounting for phylogeny and then ask how vulnerability varies under four warming scenarios: +1.5⁰C, +2⁰C, +3⁰C and +5⁰C. 4. We found that CTmax was constant across species regardless of habitat and elevation. However, species in young secondary forests are expected to become more vulnerable because of increased exposure to higher temperatures. Microhabitat variation could enable species to persist within their thermal temperature range as long as regional temperatures do not surpass +2°C. The effectiveness of microhabitat buffering decreases with a 2-3°C increase, and is almost null under a 5°C temperature increase. 5. Microhabitats will provide thermal protection to Andean frog communities from climate change by enabling tracking of suitable climates through short distance movement. Conservation strategies, such as managing landscapes by preserving primary forests and allowing regrowth and re-connection of secondary forest would offer thermally buffered microhabitats and aid in the survival of this group.

RevDate: 2020-08-03

Galán C, M Thibaudon (2020)

Climate Change, Airborne Pollen and Pollution.

Allergy [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-08-03

Gebru GW, Ichoku HE, PO Phil-Eze (2020)

Determinants of smallholder farmers' adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray National Regional State of Ethiopia.

Heliyon, 6(7):e04356 pii:e04356.

Climate change has been significantly affecting smallholder farmer's livelihood and food security. However, efforts to support farmer adaptation are hampered by the lack of scientific and context based evidences. Hence, this paper identified the major adaptation strategies to climate change (CC) and analysed the determinants of adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change in Eastern Tigray Region of Ethiopia. Three-stage sampling technique was used to select the study sites and sample households. Copies of 485 questionnaires were administered and complemented with data from focus group discussion and key informant interviews. Results of the descriptive analysis identified that use of soil and water conservation practices, planting trees, improved crop seeds, irrigation and use of non-farm income generating activities are the most utilized adaptation strategies to climate change. Results of the multinomial logistic regression (MNL) revealed that households' adaptation to climate change was found positively and significantly affected by education, livestock holding, cooperatives membership, extension services, farmers income and households perception to climate change. On the contrary, age of the household head, distance to market and agro-ecology were found negatively and statistically affecting smallholder farmers adoption of adaptation strategies to climate change. Thus, public policy on climate change adaptation need to take into account local people's resource base and their lifelong outlooks so as to reduce the potential drawbacks of climate change on farmers' livelihood.

RevDate: 2020-08-02

Denechaud C, Smoliński S, Geffen AJ, et al (2020)

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change, population dynamics and exploitation.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high-latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long-term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century-scale biochronology (1924-2014) based on the measurements of 3894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed-effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing-related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density-dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.

RevDate: 2020-08-02

Gade MR, Connette GM, Crawford JA, et al (2020)

Predicted alteration of surface activity as a consequence of climate change.

Ecology [Epub ahead of print].

Wildlife are faced with numerous threats to survival, none more pressing than that of climate change. Understanding how species will respond to changing climate behaviorally, physiologically, and demographically is a cornerstone of many contemporary ecological studies, especially for organisms, such as amphibians, whose persistence is closely tied to abiotic conditions. Activity is a useful parameter for understanding the effects of climate change because activity is directly linked to fitness as it dictates foraging times, energy budgets, and mating opportunities. However, activity can be challenging to directly measure, especially for secretive organisms like plethodontid salamanders which only become surface active when conditions are cool and moist due to their anatomical and physiological restrictions. We estimated abiotic predictors of surface activity for the seven species of the Plethodon jordani complex. Five independent data sets collected from 2004-2017 were used to determine the parameters driving salamander surface activity in the present-day, which were then used to predict potential activity changes over the next 80 years. Average active season temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the strongest predictors of salamander surface activity and, without physiological or behavioral modifications, salamanders were predicted to exhibit a higher probability of surface activity during peak active season under future climate conditions. Temperatures during the active season likely do not exceed salamander thermal maxima to cause activity suppression and, until physiological limits are reached, future conditions may continue to increase activity. Our model is the first comprehensive field-based study to assess current and future surface activity probability. Our study provides insights into how a key behavior driving fitness may be affected by climate change.

RevDate: 2020-08-02

Zhang J, M Zhi (2020)

Effects of basin nutrient discharge variations coupled with climate change on water quality in Lake Erhai, China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-09179-0 [Epub ahead of print].

In Lake Erhai, water quality was affected by the basin nutrient discharge and climate change. To analyze the relationships between the water quality (total nitrogen [TN], total phosphorus [TP], chemical oxygen demand [CODmn], ammonia [NH4], and trophic level index [TLI]) and basin nutrient discharge (TNd, TPd, and CODd) combined with climate changes (air temperature [AT], precipitation [pre], wind speed [wind], and sunshine hours [SHs]), the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to explore the nonlinear relationships with their interactions using data sets ranging from 1999 to 2012. Our findings revealed that the water quality in Lake Erhai deteriorated in the early twentieth century, and the basin discharge and AT appeared significant (p < 0.05) rising trends in a long time, while the precipitation decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in the study period. Single-factor GAM results indicated that the basin nutrient discharge was the main explanatory factor for the variations of TN and TP in lake, while precipitation was the main driver for CODmn and NH4. Besides, the water quality displayed nonlinear responses to the basin discharge, but all of the water quality variables went up as the emission levels increased in the lower range. The results showed that the water quality deteriorated in the lower rainfall, and TN rose as the AT increases, while TP was elevated accompanied by the ascending SHs there. The GAM interaction results suggested that the increase of AT and TPd had a promoting effect on TP in Lake Erhai. Stricter nutrient management measures should be implemented when the impacts of climate change are taken into account.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

Ojo TO, LJS Baiyegunhi (2020)

Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on rice productivity in South-west, Nigeria: An endogeneity corrected stochastic frontier model.

The Science of the total environment, 745:141151 pii:S0048-9697(20)34680-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The study assessed the impact of climate change adaptation strategies on technical efficiency of smallholder rice farmers in South-west Nigeria. An endogeneity corrected stochastic frontier model which account for the endogeneity of adoption of adaptation strategies that is likely to depend on inefficiency was employed for the study. The result of the study revealed that adoption of adaption strategies is endogenously determined with rice productivity and hence, failure to account for endogeneity, the parameter efficiency estimates would be inconsistent. The empirical results from the model show that quantity of labour, herbicides and the interaction of labour with both farm size and insecticides were statistically significant in explaining the variations in the efficiency of rice production in the study area. In addition, the study identified the combined effects of climate change adaptation strategies and some socioeconomic characteristics such as age, gender, education, farming experience, access to credit, access to information, membership of farmers in agricultural based cooperative and location of rice farmers as sources of technical inefficiencies. The study concluded that increase implementation of climate change adaptation strategies could enhance rice productivity and technical efficiency of rice farmers through timely access to climate change information and other related institutional support. Based on farmers' knowledge and understanding of changes in climatic conditions and the adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect, it is therefore important for the government, stakeholders and donor agencies to involve farmers in the climate change adaptation planning process.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

D'Amato G, CA Akdis (2020)

Global warming, climate change, air pollution and allergies.

The average global temperatures on our planet are increasing due to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2).1,2 There is an urgent need to call for action on global warming, which is resulting in extreme weather and related catastrophes.1 ,2 The Earth's rising temperature is evidenced by warming of the oceans, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and the diminished snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate-related factors can affect interactive atmospheric components (chemical and biological) and their interrelationship with human health.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

Masoero G, Laaksonen T, Morosinotto C, et al (2020)

Climate change and perishable food hoards of an avian predator: Is the freezer still working?.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Changing climate can modify predator-prey interactions and induce declines or local extinctions of species due to reductions in food availability. Species hoarding perishable food for overwinter survival, like predators, are predicted to be particularly susceptible to increasing temperatures. We analysed the influence of autumn and winter weather, and abundance of main prey (voles), on the food-hoarding behaviour of a generalist predator, the Eurasian pygmy owl (Glaucidium passerinum), across 16 years in Finland. Fewer freeze-thaw events in early autumn delayed the initiation of food hoarding. Pygmy owls consumed more hoarded food with more frequent freeze-thaw events and deeper snow cover in autumn and in winter, and lower precipitation in winter. In autumn, the rotting of food hoards increased with precipitation. Hoards already present in early autumn were much more likely to rot than the ones initiated in late autumn. Rotten food hoards were used more in years of low food abundance than in years of high food abundance. Having rotten food hoards in autumn resulted in a lower future recapture probability of female owls. These results indicate that pygmy owls might be partly able to adapt to climate change by delaying food hoarding, but changes in the snow cover, precipitation and frequency of freeze-thaw events might impair their foraging and ultimately decrease local overwinter survival. Long-term trends and future predictions, therefore, suggest that impacts of climate change on wintering food-hoarding species could be substantial, because their 'freezers' may no longer work properly. Altered usability and poorer quality of hoarded food may further modify the foraging needs of food-hoarding predators and thus their overall predation pressure on prey species. This raises concerns about the impacts of climate change on boreal food webs, in which ecological interactions have evolved under cold winter conditions.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

Sharma A, Batish DR, SK Uniyal (2020)

Documentation and validation of climate change perception of an ethnic community of the western Himalaya.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(8):552 pii:10.1007/s10661-020-08512-x.

The high-altitude regions of Himalaya are among the best indicators of climate change yet noticeable for the lack of climate monitoring stations. However, they support ethnic communities whose livelihood activities are climate driven. Consequently, these communities are keen observers of the same and documenting their perception on changing climate is now an important area of global research. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the prime objective of documenting the climate change perception of Bhangalis-a resident community of western Himalaya, and analyzing variation in their perceptions in relation to age and gender. For this, respondent surveys (household, n = 430; individual interviews, n = 240) were carried out and the collected data were subjected to statistical analyses. The study also validated the perception of Bhangalis using the available weather data (1974-2017) through the Mann-Kendall test. The results reveal that Bhangalis perceived 11 indicators of changing climate, of which decrease in snowfall was the most prominent (reported by ~ 97% of the respondents). The perceptions varied between the two genders with males having significantly higher proportion of responses for all the 11 indicators. Similarly, differences in perception among the age groups were also observed, elderly people reported higher proportion of climate change indicators as compared to respondents of lower age. Notably, patterns of temperature and rainfall perceptions by the Bhangalis agreed with the trends of meteorological data. This highlights the importance of the study in documenting knowledge of ethnic communities especially from areas that lack monitoring stations. It argues for involving them in climate change programs.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

Schiermeier Q (2019)

Climate change made European heatwave up to 3°C hotter.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

Liguori G, McGregor S, Arblaster JM, et al (2020)

A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming.

Nature communications, 11(1):3827 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-17683-7.

Despite the observed monotonic increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations, global mean temperature displays important decadal fluctuations typically attributed to both external forcing and internal variability. Here, we provide a robust quantification of the relative contributions of anthropogenic, natural, and internally-driven decadal variability of global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) by using a unique dataset consisting of 30-member large initial-condition ensembles with five Earth System Models (ESM-LE). We present evidence that a large fraction (~29-53%) of the simulated decadal-scale variance in individual timeseries of GMSST over 1950-2010 is externally forced and largely linked to the representation of volcanic aerosols. Comparison with the future (2010-2070) period suggests that external forcing provides a source of additional decadal-scale variability in the historical period. Given the unpredictable nature of future volcanic aerosol forcing, it is suggested that a large portion of decadal GMSST variability might not be predictable.

RevDate: 2020-08-01

Burrell AL, Evans JP, MG De Kauwe (2020)

Anthropogenic climate change has driven over 5 million km2 of drylands towards desertification.

Nature communications, 11(1):3853 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-17710-7.

Drylands cover 41% of the earth's land surface and include 45% of the world's agricultural land. These regions are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to anthropogenic climate and land use change and are under threat of desertification. Understanding the roles of anthropogenic climate change, which includes the CO2 fertilization effect, and land use in driving desertification is essential for effective policy responses but remains poorly quantified with methodological differences resulting in large variations in attribution. Here, we perform the first observation-based attribution study of desertification that accounts for climate change, climate variability, CO2 fertilization as well as both the gradual and rapid ecosystem changes caused by land use. We found that, between 1982 and 2015, 6% of the world's drylands underwent desertification driven by unsustainable land use practices compounded by anthropogenic climate change. Despite an average global greening, anthropogenic climate change has degraded 12.6% (5.43 million km2) of drylands, contributing to desertification and affecting 213 million people, 93% of who live in developing economies.

RevDate: 2020-07-31

Pino-Cortés E, Carrasco S, Díaz-Robles LA, et al (2020)

Black and organic carbon fractions in fine particulate matter by sectors in the South Hemisphere emissions for decision-making on climate change and health effects.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-10164-w [Epub ahead of print].

Some databases report global emissions of certain pollutants. Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) project is one of these, which also records emissions by sources. In this study, the emissions of black and organic carbon and fine particulate matter from the EDGAR database were used as an input to process it in the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model. We showed the spatial distribution of the fraction of black and organic carbon in particulate matter from each source in the Southern Hemisphere. Also, we extracted these ratios for several cities in the domain of analysis. The results and methodology of this study could improve the emission inventories with bottom-up methodology in areas without information located at Southern Hemisphere. Also, it could be relevant to obtain better performance in air quality modeling at the local level for decision-making on climate change and health effects.

RevDate: 2020-07-31

Riquelme C, Estay SA, Contreras R, et al (2020)

Extinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01971-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change affects population cycles of several species, threatening biodiversity. However, there are few long-term studies on species with conservation issues and restricted distributions. Huemul is a deer endemic to the southern Andes in South America and it is considered endangered mostly due to a 50% reduction of its distribution over the last 500 years. To assess environmental variables potentially affecting huemul population viability and the impact of climate change, we developed population dynamics models. We used a 14-year survey data from Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, coastal Chilean Patagonia. We used Ricker models considering winter and spring temperatures and precipitation as variables influencing huemul population dynamics. We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to select models with the greatest predictive power. The two best models (ΔBIC < 2) included winter temperature and density-dependence population growth drivers. The best model considered a lateral effect, where winter temperature influences carrying capacity and the second best a vertical effect with winter temperature influencing Rmax and carrying capacity. Population viability was evaluated using those models, projecting them over a 100-year period: (a) under current conditions and (b) under conditions estimated by Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2070. The extinction risk and quasi-extinction were estimated for this population considering two critical huemul abundance levels (15 and 30 individuals) for persistence. The population is currently in a quasi-extinction process, with extinction probabilities increasing with climate change. These results are crucial for conservation of species like huemul that have low densities and are threatened by climate change.

RevDate: 2020-07-31

Huang W, Dai J, Wang W, et al (2020)

Phenological changes in herbaceous plants in China's grasslands and their responses to climate change: a meta-analysis.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01974-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Plant phenological events are sensitive indicators of climate change, and their change could markedly affect the structure and function of ecosystems. Previous studies have revealed the spatiotemporal variations in the phenological events of woody plants. However, limited studies have focused on the phenophases of herbaceous plants. In this study, by using a meta-analysis method, we extracted information about the phenological changes in herbaceous plants in China's grasslands from existing studies (including the period, station, species, phenophases, phenological trends, and climatic determinants) and analyzed the patterns manifested in the dataset. The results showed that the spring phenophases (e.g., first leaf date and first flowering date) of the herbaceous plants mainly advanced over the past 30 years, but a large difference existed across grassland types. The spring phenophases of forages (species from the Cyperaceae, Gramineae, and Leguminosae families) became earlier in the desert steppe and alpine steppe but showed no apparent trends in the alpine meadow and even became later in the meadow steppe and typical steppe. In most cases, the increase in spring temperatures and precipitation promoted the greening up of herbaceous plants, while sunshine duration was positively correlated with the green-up date of herbaceous plants. For the autumn phenophases, the proportions of the earlier and later trends were very close, but the trends varied among the grassland types. The leaf coloring dates of the forages were delayed in the meadow steppe and alpine steppe but showed no distinct pattern in the typical steppe or alpine meadow and even became earlier in the desert steppe. In most cases, the increase in growing season temperature led to an earlier leaf coloring date of the herbaceous plants, but the increase in the preseason precipitation delayed the leaf coloring date. Our results suggested that the phenophases of herbaceous plants have complicated responses to multiple environmental factors, which makes predicting future phenological changes difficult.

RevDate: 2020-07-31

Bellouin N, Quaas J, Gryspeerdt E, et al (2020)

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change.

Reviews of geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985), 58(1):e2019RG000660.

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

RevDate: 2020-07-30

Munia HA, Guillaume JHA, Wada Y, et al (2020)

Future Transboundary Water Stress and Its Drivers Under Climate Change: A Global Study.

Earth's future, 8(7):e2019EF001321.

Various transboundary river basins are facing increased pressure on water resources in near future. However, little is known ab out the future drivers globally, namely, changes in natural local runoff and natural inflows from upstream parts of a basin, as well as local and upstream water consumption. Here we use an ensemble of four global hydrological models forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration (RCP) and socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios to assess the impact of these drivers on transboundary water stress in the past and future. Our results show that population under water stress is expected to increase by 50% under a low population growth and emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and double under a high population growth and emission scenario (SSP3-RCP6.0), compared to the year 2010. As changes in water availability have a smaller effect when water is not yet scarce, changes in water stress globally are dominated by local water consumption-managing local demand is thus necessary in order to avoid future stress. Focusing then on the role of upstream changes, we identified upstream availability (i.e., less natural runoff or increased water consumption) as the dominant driver of changes in net water availability in most downstream areas. Moreover, an increased number of people will be living in areas dependent on upstream originating water in 2050. International water treaties and management will therefore have an increasingly crucial role in these hot spot regions to ensure fair management of transboundary water resources.

RevDate: 2020-07-30

McMahan CD, Fuentes-Montejo CE, Ginger L, et al (2020)

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras.

Scientific reports, 10(1):12693 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-69579-7.

Despite their incredible diversity, relatively little work has been done to assess impacts of climate change on tropical freshwater organisms. Chortiheros wesseli is a species of Neotropical cichlid (Cichlidae: Cichlinae) restricted to only a few river drainages in the Caribbean-slope of Honduras. Little is known about this species and few specimens had been collected until recently; however, our work with this species in the wild has led to a better understanding of its ecology and habitat preferences making it an excellent model for how freshwater fishes can be affected by climate change. This study assesses the distribution and habitats of Chortiheros wesseli using a combination of field data and species distribution modeling. Results indicate this species is largely limited to its current range, with no realistic suitable habitat nearby. Empirical habitat data show that this species is limited to narrow and shallow flowing waters with rapids and boulders. This habitat type is highly influenced by precipitation, which contributed the greatest influence on the models of present and future habitat suitability. Although several localities are within boundaries of national protected areas, species distribution models all predict a reduction in the range of this freshwater fish based on climate change scenarios. The likelihood of a reduced range for this species will be intensified by adverse changes to its preferred habitats.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Liu W, Bailey RT, Andersen HE, et al (2020)

Quantifying the effects of climate change on hydrological regime and stream biota in a groundwater-dominated catchment: A modelling approach combining SWAT-MODFLOW with flow-biota empirical models.

The Science of the total environment, 745:140933 pii:S0048-9697(20)34462-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change may affect stream ecosystems through flow regime alterations, which can be particularly complex in streams with a significant groundwater contribution. To quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and subsequently the stream biota, we linked SWAT-MODFLOW (A model coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Modular Finite-difference Flow Model) with flow-biota empirical models that included indices for three key biological taxonomic identities (fish, macroinvertebrates and macrophytes) and applied the model-complex to a groundwater-dominated catchment in Denmark. Effects of predicted climate change towards the end of this century relative to the reference period (1996-2005) were tested with two contrasting climate change scenarios of different greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and RCP 8.5) and analysed for all subbasins grouped into streams of three size classes. The total water yield in the catchment did not change significantly (-1 ± 4 (SD) mm yr-1) from the baseline in the RCP2.6 scenario, while it increased by 9 ± 11 mm yr-1 in the RCP8.5 scenario. The three stream size classes underwent different alterations in flow regime and also demonstrated different biotic responses to climate change. All large and some small streams were impacted most heavily by the climate change, where fish and macrophyte indices decreased up to 14.4% and 11.2%, respectively, whereas these indices increased by up to 14.4% and 6.0%, respectively, in the medium and some small streams. The climate change effects were, as expected, larger in the RCP8.5 scenario than in the RCP2.6 scenario. Our study is the first to quantify the impacts of streamflow alterations induced by climate change on stream biota beyond specific species.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Boethius A, Kjällquist M, Magnell O, et al (2020)

Human encroachment, climate change and the loss of our archaeological organic cultural heritage: Accelerated bone deterioration at Ageröd, a revisited Scandinavian Mesolithic key-site in despair.

PloS one, 15(7):e0236105 pii:PONE-D-20-10718.

Ancient organic remains are essential for the reconstruction of past human lifeways and environments but are only preserved under particular conditions. Recent findings indicate that such conditions are becoming rarer and that archaeological sites with previously good preservation, are deteriorating. To investigate this, we returned to the well-known Swedish Mesolithic site Ageröd I. Here we present the result of the re-excavation and the osteological analyses of the bone remains from the 1940s, 1970s and 2019 excavation campaigns of the site, to document and quantify changes in bone preservation and relate them to variations in soil conditions and on-site topography. The results indicate that the bone material has suffered from accelerated deterioration during the last 75 years. This has led to heavily degraded remains in some areas and complete destruction in others. We conclude that while Ageröd can still be considered an important site, it has lost much of the properties that made it unique. If no actions are taken to secure its future preservation, the site will soon lose the organic remains that before modern encroachment and climate change had been preserved for 9000 years. Finally, because Ageröd has not been subjected to more or heavier encroachment than most other archaeological sites, our results also raise questions of the state of organic preservation in other areas and call for a broad examination of our most vulnerable hidden archaeological remains.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Quinby BM, Belk MC, JC Creighton (2020)

Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter-gradient variation: Implications for climate change.

Ecology and evolution, 10(13):6688-6701 pii:ECE36399.

Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter-gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter-gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter-gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter-gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Footitt S, Hambidge AJ, WE Finch-Savage (2020)

Changes in phenological events in response to a global warming scenario reveal greater adaptability of winter annual compared to summer annual Arabidopsis ecotypes.

Annals of botany pii:5877453 [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals respectively.

METHODS: Using a global warming scenario predicting a 4°C temperature rise from 2011 to circa 2080 we produced F1 seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F1 cohort (cool and warm) then produced F2 seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F2 seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.

KEY RESULTS: In a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 days °C-1 in the winter annual and 4.9 days °C-1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.

CONCLUSIONS: Seedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual Arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to Anthropogenic Climate Change.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Di Cicco ME, Ferrante G, Amato D, et al (2020)

Climate Change and Childhood Respiratory Health: A Call to Action for Paediatricians.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(15): pii:ijerph17155344.

Climate change (CC) is one of the main contributors to health emergencies worldwide. CC appears to be closely interrelated with air pollution, as some pollutants like carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and black carbon are naturally occurring greenhouse gases. Air pollution may enhance the allergenicity of some plants and, also, has an adverse effect on respiratory health. Children are a uniquely vulnerable group that suffers disproportionately from CC burden. The increasing global warming related to CC has a big impact on plants' lifecycles, with earlier and longer pollen seasons, as well as higher pollen production, putting children affected by asthma and allergic rhinitis at risk for exacerbations. Extreme weather events may play a role too, not only in the exacerbations of allergic respiratory diseases but, also, in favouring respiratory infections. Even though paediatricians are already seeing the impacts of CC on their patients, their knowledge about CC-related health outcomes with specific regards to children's respiratory health is incomplete. This advocates for paediatricians' increased awareness and a better understanding of the CC impact on children's respiratory health. Having a special responsibility for children, paediatricians should actively be involved in policies aimed to protect the next generation from CC-related adverse health effects. Hence, there is an urgent need for them to take action and successfully educate families about CC issues. This paper aims at reviewing the evidence of CC-related environmental factors such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and extreme events on respiratory allergic diseases and respiratory infections in children and proposing specific actionable items for paediatricians to deal with CC-related health issues in their clinical practice.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Kim YU, BW Lee (2020)

Earlier planting offsets the adverse effect of global warming on spring potato in South Korea.

The Science of the total environment, 742:140667 pii:S0048-9697(20)34189-9 [Epub ahead of print].

Potato is one of the most important food crops in South Korea, but the climate change impact on potato production is not clearly understood due to the complex topography across the nation. The climate change impact on spring potato was assessed with a fine-resolution (1-km) simulation using the SUBSTOR-potato model and five regional climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5. Compared to the current climate, the future climates were projected to be more favorable for the spring potato production, which contrasts the previous simulation studies using general circulation models with coarse resolutions (0.5-1.0°). Without any adaptations, anticipated warming was projected to decrease potato yield by -7.7% in the 2080s. However, growing season length (GSL) could be extended by 18.5 days with earlier planting, which eventually over-compensated the negative warming effect. With consideration of the CO2 fertilization effect, overall climate change impact could be up to +80% in the 2080s. In addition, replacing the current early cultivar "Superior" with mid-late cultivars will provide additional yield gain in the coastal areas. Meanwhile, in the inland areas, breeding of frost- and heat-tolerance cultivars will be required for additional yield gain. Still, cautious interpretation is needed since the CO2 fertilization effect might be over-estimated and that the farmers may not extend GSL as much as in the current study from the economic point of view (i.e., farmers may harvest earlier when the market price of potato is high). This study highlights that a fine spatial resolution is essential for the realistic simulation of the climate change impact in complex terrain.

RevDate: 2020-07-29

Perry DC, Chaffee C, Wigand C, et al (2020)

Implementing adaptive management into a climate change adaptation strategy for a drowning New England salt marsh.

Journal of environmental management, 270:110928.

Due to climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, future conditions and impacts facing coastal habitats are unclear to coastal resource managers. Adaptive management strategies have become an important tactic to compensate for the unknown environmental conditions that coastal managers and restoration ecologists face. Adaptive management requires extensive planning and resources, which can act as barriers to achieve a successful project. These barriers also create challenges in incorporating adaptive management into climate change adaptation strategies. This case study describes and analyzes the Rhode Island Coastal Resources Management Council's approach to overcome these challenges to implement a successful adaptive management project to restore a drowning salt marsh using the climate change adaptation strategy, sediment enhancement, at Quonochontaug Pond in Charlestown, RI. Through effective communication and active stakeholder involvement, this project successfully incorporated interdisciplinary partner and stakeholder collaborations and developed an iterative learning strategy that highlights the adaptive management method.

RevDate: 2020-07-28

Hayes K, Poland B, Cole DC, et al (2020)

Psychosocial adaptation to climate change in High River, Alberta: implications for policy and practice.

Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique pii:10.17269/s41997-020-00380-9 [Epub ahead of print].

OBJECTIVES: Psychosocial adaptation to climate change-related events remains understudied. We sought to assess how the psychosocial consequences of a major event were addressed via public health responses (e.g., programs, policies, and practices) that aimed to enhance, protect, and promote mental health.

METHODS: We report on a study of health and social service responses to the long-term mental health impacts of the 2013 Southern Alberta flood, in High River, Alberta. Qualitative research methods included (i) telephone interviews (n = 14) with key informant health and social services leaders, (ii) four focus group sessions with front-line health and social services workers (n = 14), and (iii) semi-structured interviews with a sample of community members (n = 18) who experienced the flood. We conducted a descriptive thematic analysis, with a focus on participants' perceptions and experiences.

RESULTS: Findings of this study suggest (1) the long-term psychosocial impacts of extreme weather and climate change require sustained recovery interventions rooted in local knowledge and interdisciplinary action; (2) there are unintended consequences related to psychosocial interventions that can incite complex emotions and impact psychosocial recovery; and (3) perceptions of mental health care, among people exposed to climate-related trauma, can guide climate change and mental health response and recovery interventions.

CONCLUSION: Based on this initial exploration, policy and practice opportunities for public health to enhance psychosocial adaptation to our changing climate are highlighted.

RevDate: 2020-07-28

Letelier L, Gaete-Eastman C, Peñailillo P, et al (2020)

Southern Species From the Biodiversity Hotspot of Central Chile: A Source of Color, Aroma, and Metabolites for Global Agriculture and Food Industry in a Scenario of Climate Change.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:1002.

Two interesting plants within the Chilean flora (wild and crop species) can be found with a history related to modern fruticulture: Fragaria chiloensis subsp. chiloensis (Rosaceae) and Vasconcellea pubescens (Caricaceae). Both species have a wide natural distribution, which goes from the Andes mountains to the sea (East-West), and from the Atacama desert to the South of Chile (North-South). The growing locations are included within the Chilean Winter Rainfall-Valdivian Forest hotspot. Global warming is of great concern as it increases the risk of losing wild plant species, but at the same time, gives a chance for usually longer term genetic improvement using naturally adapted material and the source for generating healthy foods. Modern agriculture intensifies the attractiveness of native undomesticated species as a way to provide compounds like antioxidants or tolerant plants for climate change scenario. F. chiloensis subsp. chiloensis as the mother of commercial strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa) is an interesting genetic source for the improvement of fruit flavor and stress tolerance. On the other hand, V. pubescens produces fruit with high level of antioxidants and proteolytic enzymes of interest to the food industry. The current review compiles the botanical, physiological and phytochemical description of F. chiloensis subsp. chiloensis and V. pubescens, highlighting their potential as functional foods and as source of compounds with several applications in the pharmaceutical, biotechnological, and food science. The impact of global warming scenario on the distribution of the species is also discussed.

RevDate: 2020-07-28

Driscoll AW, Bitter NQ, Sandquist DR, et al (2020)

Multidecadal records of intrinsic water-use efficiency in the desert shrub Encelia farinosa reveal strong responses to climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2008345117 [Epub ahead of print].

While tree rings have enabled interannual examination of the influence of climate on trees, this is not possible for most shrubs. Here, we leverage a multidecadal record of annual foliar carbon isotope ratio collections coupled with 39 y of survey data from two populations of the drought-deciduous desert shrub Encelia farinosa to provide insight into water-use dynamics and climate. This carbon isotope record provides a unique opportunity to examine the response of desert shrubs to increasing temperature and water stress in a region where climate is changing rapidly. Population mean carbon isotope ratios fluctuated predictably in response to interannual variations in temperature, vapor pressure deficit, and precipitation, and responses were similar among individuals. We leveraged the well-established relationships between leaf carbon isotope ratios and the ratio of intracellular to ambient CO2 concentrations to calculate intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) of the plants and to quantify plant responses to long-term environmental change. The population mean iWUE value increased by 53 to 58% over the study period, much more than the 20 to 30% increase that has been measured in forests [J. Peñuelas, J. G. Canadell, R. Ogaya, Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 597-608 (2011)]. Changes were associated with both increased CO2 concentration and increased water stress. Individuals whose lifetimes spanned the entire study period exhibited increases in iWUE that were very similar to the population mean, suggesting that there was significant plasticity within individuals rather than selection at the population scale.

RevDate: 2020-07-28

Gaythorpe KA, Hamlet A, Cibrelus L, et al (2020)

The effect of climate change on yellow fever disease burden in Africa.

eLife, 9: pii:55619.

Yellow Fever (YF) is an arbovirus endemic in tropical regions of South America and Africa and it is estimated to cause 78,000 deaths a year in Africa alone. Climate change may have substantial effects on the transmission of YF and we present the first analysis of the potential impact on disease burden. We extend an existing model of YF transmission to account for rainfall and a temperature suitability index and project transmission intensity across the African endemic region in the context of four climate change scenarios. We use these transmission projections to assess the change in burden in 2050 and 2070. We find disease burden changes heterogeneously across the region. In the least severe scenario, we find a 93.0%[95%CI(92.7, 93.2%)] chance that annual deaths will increase in 2050. This change in epidemiology will complicate future control efforts. Thus, we may need to consider the effect of changing climatic variables on future intervention strategies.

RevDate: 2020-07-28

Yin R, Siebert J, Eisenhauer N, et al (2020)

Climate change and intensive land use reduce soil animal biomass via dissimilar pathways.

eLife, 9: pii:54749.

Global change drivers, such as climate change and land use, may profoundly influence body size, density, and biomass of soil organisms. However, it is still unclear how these concurrent drivers interact in affecting ecological communities. Here, we present the results of an experimental field study assessing the interactive effects of climate change and land-use intensification on body size, density, and biomass of soil microarthropods. We found that the projected climate change and intensive land use decreased their total biomass. Strikingly, this reduction was realized via two dissimilar pathways: climate change reduced mean body size and intensive land use decreased density. These findings highlight that two of the most pervasive global change drivers operate via different pathways when decreasing soil animal biomass. These shifts in soil communities may threaten essential ecosystem functions like organic matter turnover and nutrient cycling in future ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Idrissou Y, Assani AS, Baco MN, et al (2020)

Adaptation strategies of cattle farmers in the dry and sub-humid tropical zones of Benin in the context of climate change.

Heliyon, 6(7):e04373 pii:e04373.

Cattle farming is directly impacted by climate change (CC), as it utilizes resources whose seasonality and productivity are strongly climate-dependent. Farmers respond to the negative influence of CC by implementing different adaptation strategies, where choices are informed by many factors. This study aims at analyzing the adaptation strategies of cattle farmers in the dry tropical zone (DTZ) and sub-humid tropical zone (STZ) of Benin with regard to climate change, as well as the determinants for the choice of these strategies. For that matter, 360 cattle farmers were surveyed. Data collected were related to the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the cattle farmers, their perception and adaptation to CC. The data collected were subjected to frequency analysis and binary logistic regression. The results showed that livestock farmers were partly aware of climate related with CC, especially the increase of temperature. The most important adaptation strategies mentioned by cattle farmers were mobility, integration of livestock and crop husbandry, provision of concentrate feed, reduction of herd size, diversification of livestock, and forage cropping. Farming experience, cattle herd size, membership in an organization, number of farm assets, level of education, and climate zone were the major variables affecting farmers' adaptation strategies. From this study, we recommend that any program promoting adaption of climate change resilience among farmers, especially cattle farmers, should take the identified factors into account.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Liu M, Yang L, Smith JA, et al (2020)

Response of Extreme Rainfall for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Undergoing Extratropical Transition to Projected Climate Change: Hurricane Irene (2011).

Earth's future, 8(3):e2019EF001360.

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) have large societal impacts, both in fatalities and economic losses. This study examines the response of TC rainfall to climate change projected under future anthropogenic greenhouse emissions, focusing on Hurricane Irene, which produced severe flooding across the Northeastern United States in August 2011. Numerical simulations are made with the Weather Research and Forecasting model, placing Irene in the present-day climate and one projected for the end of 21st century climate represented by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Projected future changes to surface and atmospheric temperature lead to a storm rainfall increase of 32% relative to the control run, exceeding the rate expected by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation given a ~3-K lower atmospheric warming. Analyses of the atmospheric water balance highlight contributions to the increase in rainfall rate from both increased circulation strength and atmospheric moisture. Storm rainfall rate shows contrasting response to global warming during TC and extratropical transition periods. During the TC phase, Irene shows a significant increase of storm rainfall rate in inner core regions. This increase shifts to outer rainbands as Irene undergoes extratropical transition, collocated with the maximum tangential wind increase and the change of secondary circulation strength. Changes of storm track from the control run to global warming projections play a role in the change of spatial rainfall pattern. Distinct roles of surface and atmospheric warming in storm rainfall and structure changes are also examined.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Heckathorn S, North G, Wang D, et al (2020)

Editorial: Climate Change and Plant Nutrient Relations.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:869.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Fahad AA, Burls NJ, Z Strasberg (2020)

How will southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones respond to global warming? Mechanisms and seasonality in CMIP5 and CMIP6 model projections.

Climate dynamics, 55(3):703-718.

The anticyclonic high-pressure systems over the southern-hemisphere, subtropical oceans have a significant influence on regional climate. Previous studies of how these subtropical anticyclones will change under global warming have focused on austral summer while the winter season has remained largely uninvestigated, together with the extent to which the dominant mechanisms proposed to explain the multi-model-mean changes similarly explain the inter-model spread in projections. This study addresses these gaps by focusing on the mechanisms that drive the spread in projected future changes across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 archives during both the summer and winter seasons. The southern hemisphere anticyclones intensify in strength at their center and poleward flank during both seasons in the future projections analyzed. The inter-model spread in projected local diabatic heating changes accounts for a considerable amount of the inter-model spread in the response of the South Pacific anticyclone during both seasons. However, model differences in projected zonal-mean tropospheric static stability changes, which in turn influence baroclinic eddy growth, are most influential in determining the often-strong increases in sea level pressure seen along the poleward flank of all the anticyclones during both seasons. Increased zonal-mean tropospheric static stability over the subtropics is consistent with the poleward shift in Hadley cell edge and zonal-mean sea level pressure increases. The results suggest that differences in the extent of tropical-upper-tropospheric and subtropical-lower-tropospheric warming in the southern hemisphere, via their influence on tropospheric static stability, will largely determine the fate of the anticyclones over the coming century.

RevDate: 2020-07-25

Marshall KE, Gotthard K, CM Williams (2020)

Evolutionary impacts of winter climate change on insects.

Current opinion in insect science, 41:54-62 pii:S2214-5745(20)30085-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Overwintering is a serious challenge for insects, and winters are rapidly changing as climate shifts. The capacity for phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary adaptation will determine which species profit or suffer from these changes. Here we discuss current knowledge on the potential and evidence for evolution in winter-relevant traits among insect species and populations. We conclude that the best evidence for evolutionary shifts in response to changing winters remain those related to changes in phenology, but all evidence points to cold hardiness as also having the potential to evolve in response to climate change. Predicting future population sizes and ranges relies on understanding to what extent evolution in winter-related traits is possible, and remains a serious challenge.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Zhang DD, Pei Q, Lee HF, et al (2020)

Climate change fostered cultural dynamics of human resilience in Europe in the past 2500 years.

The Science of the total environment, 744:140842 pii:S0048-9697(20)34366-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Humans possess limited knowledge on what generated cultural dynamics to strengthen human resilience to overcome climate-induced stresses. Although the highly developed mental ability of humans could have enabled significant human resilience in history, no study has empirically explained or has even scientifically confirmed how and when such dynamics arose. To fill the current research gap, this study therefore explores the associations among climatic conditions, the evolutional dynamics of human thinkers and their thoughts, and human ecological-socioeconomic conditions in the past 2500 years in Europe. Results from quantitative modellings and causal analyses confirm that climatic-ecological stresses led to human ecological-socioeconomic crises, and thereby dramatically increased twice of the thinkers' number and their thoughts' impact across different philosophies in truth, knowledge, and ethics for adaptation at multi-decadal to centennial temporal scales, especially in spirituality oriented mentality. The process of the stress-generated cultural dynamics displays some similarities with the stress-induced mutagenesis in organism evolution. Ultimately, climatic-ecological stresses prompt the escalation in the number of thinkers and impacts of their thoughts and flourishing of philosophy. Such stress-regenerated cultural dynamics imply that the current climate change threat may stimulate another thriving phase of cultural selection and lift humans to the next homeostatic plateau of civilization. Findings also extend the cognate scope of psychological, sociological, and civilization studies.

RevDate: 2020-07-25

Chadha A, Florentine S, Javaid M, et al (2020)

Influence of elements of climate change on the growth and fecundity of Datura stramonium.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-10251-y [Epub ahead of print].

In this study, the performance of Datura stramonium, an invasive weed of soybean and solanaceous crops, was examined under different elements of climate change. Experiments conducted in CO2 chambers at ambient CO2 (400 ppm) and elevated CO2 (700 ppm) levels under both well-watered and drought conditions exhibited the fertilization effect of elevated CO2. This was, however, limited by drought. Clearly, growth of D. stramonium will be significantly enhanced by enriched atmospheric CO2 concentration under well-watered conditions, producing taller plants with greater biomass and higher seed output. Glasshouse experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of different soil moisture regimes (100%, 75%, 50% and 25% water-holding capacity (WHC)) on the growth and fecundity of D. stramonium. Plants grown in 75% WHC had the highest plant height (15.24 cm) and shoot diameter (4.25 mm). The lowest leaf area (305.91 mm2), fresh weight (14.48 g) and dry weight (4.45 g) were observed in 25% WHC conditions. The ability of D. stramonium plants to grow and complete their life cycle with high seed output, even under limited water availability, shows the weedy nature of this species which is well adapted to survive future inhospitable climatic conditions. Radiant heat treatment on the plants indicated that temperatures of 120 °C and above for more than 180 s were enough to kill the plants, suggesting that thermal weeding or wildfires will be adequate to act as a circuit breaker on the D. stramonium invasion cycle, thus allowing other control measures to be engaged for greater control.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Wu WY, Lo MH, Wada Y, et al (2020)

Divergent effects of climate change on future groundwater availability in key mid-latitude aquifers.

Nature communications, 11(1):3710 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-17581-y.

Groundwater provides critical freshwater supply, particularly in dry regions where surface water availability is limited. Climate change impacts on GWS (groundwater storage) could affect the sustainability of freshwater resources. Here, we used a fully-coupled climate model to investigate GWS changes over seven critical aquifers identified as significantly distressed by satellite observations. We assessed the potential climate-driven impacts on GWS changes throughout the 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). Results show that the climate-driven impacts on GWS changes do not necessarily reflect the long-term trend in precipitation; instead, the trend may result from enhancement of evapotranspiration, and reduction in snowmelt, which collectively lead to divergent responses of GWS changes across different aquifers. Finally, we compare the climate-driven and anthropogenic pumping impacts. The reduction in GWS is mainly due to the combined impacts of over-pumping and climate effects; however, the contribution of pumping could easily far exceed the natural replenishment.

RevDate: 2020-07-25

Yoccoz NG (2020)

Seasonal climate change and marmot demography.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:2012792117 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Ching J, M Kajino (2020)

Rethinking Air Quality and Climate Change after COVID-19.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(14): pii:ijerph17145167.

The world is currently shadowed by the pandemic of COVID-19. Confirmed cases and the death toll has reached more than 12 million and more than 550,000 respectively as of 10 July 2020. In the unsettling pandemic of COVID-19, the whole Earth has been on an unprecedented lockdown. Social distancing among people, interrupted international and domestic air traffic and suspended industrial productions and economic activities have various far-reaching and undetermined implications on air quality and the climate system. Improvement in air quality has been reported in many cities during lockdown, while the death rate of COVID-19 has been found to be higher in more polluted cities. The relationship between the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and air quality is under investigation. In addition, the battle against COVID-19 could bring short-lived and long-lasting and positive and negative impacts to the warming climate. The impacts on the climate system and the role of the climate in modulating the COVID-19 pandemic are the foci of scientific inquiry. The intertwined relationship among environment, climate change and public health is exemplified in the pandemic of COVID-19. Further investigation of the relationship is imperative in the Anthropocene, in particular, in enhancing disaster preparedness. This short article intends to give an up-to-date glimpse of the pandemic from air quality and climate perspectives and calls for a follow-up discussion.

RevDate: 2020-07-27

Shayanmehr S, Rastegari Henneberry S, Sabouhi Sabouni M, et al (2020)

Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(14): pii:ijerph17145264.

Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041-2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991-2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations.

RevDate: 2020-07-24

Madden DL, McLean M, Brennan M, et al (2020)

Why use indicators to measure and monitor the inclusion of climate change and environmental sustainability in health professions' education?.

Medical teacher [Epub ahead of print].

Currently, health professionals are inadequately prepared to meet the challenges that climate change and environmental degradation pose to health systems. Health professions' education (HPE) has an ethical responsibility to address this and must include the health effects of climate change and environmental sustainability across all curricula. As there is a narrow, closing window in which to take action to avoid the worst health outcomes from climate change, urgent, systematic, system-level change is required by the education sector. Measuring, monitoring, and reporting activity using indicators have been demonstrated to support change by providing a focus for action. A review of the literature on the use of indicators in medical education for climate change and health, however, yielded no publications. The framework of targets and indicators developed for implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 and the UNESCO initiative of the Education for Sustainable Development provide a guide for the development of indicators for HPE. Engaging stakeholders and achieving consensus on an approach to indicator development is essential and, where they exist, accreditation standards may have a supporting role. Creating capacity for environmentally sustainable health care at scale and pace should be our collective goal as health professions' educators.

RevDate: 2020-07-24

Udayanga L, Gunathilaka N, Iqbal MCM, et al (2020)

Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy districts: the detailed investigation in Sri Lanka.

Infectious diseases of poverty, 9(1):102 pii:10.1186/s40249-020-00717-z.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the vulnerability of an infectious disease such as dengue among endemic population is an important requirement to design proactive programmes in order to improve resilience capacity of vulnerable communities. The current study aimed to evaluate the climate change induced socio-economic vulnerability of local communities to dengue in Colombo and Kandy districts of Sri Lanka.

METHODS: A total of 42 variables (entomological, epidemiological, meteorological parameters, land-use practices and socio-demographic data) of all the 38 Medical Officer of Health (MOH) areas in the districts of Colombo and Kandy were considered as candidate variables for a composite index based vulnerability assessment. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used in selecting and setting the weight for each indicator. Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity and Vulnerability of all MOH areas for dengue were calculated using the composite index approach recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

RESULTS: Out of 42 candidate variables, only 23 parameters (Exposure Index: six variables; Sensitivity Index: 11 variables; Adaptive Capacity Index: six variables) were selected as indicators to assess climate change vulnerability to dengue. Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) MOH area denoted the highest values for exposure (0.89: exceptionally high exposure), sensitivity (0.86: exceptionally high sensitivity) in Colombo, while Kandy Municipal Council (KMC) area reported the highest exposure (0.79: high exposure) and sensitivity (0.77: high sensitivity) in Kandy. Piliyandala MOH area denoted the highest level of adaptive capacity (0.66) in Colombo followed by Menikhinna (0.68) in Kandy. The highest vulnerability (0.45: moderate vulnerability) to dengue was indicated from CMC and the lowest indicated from Galaha MOH (0.15; very low vulnerability) in Kandy. Interestingly the KMC MOH area had a notable vulnerability of 0.41 (moderate vulnerability), which was the highest within Kandy.

CONCLUSIONS: In general, vulnerability for dengue was relatively higher within the MOH areas of Colombo, than in Kandy, suggesting a higher degree of potential susceptibility to dengue within and among local communities of Colombo. Vector Controlling Entities are recommended to consider the spatial variations in vulnerability of local communities to dengue for decision making, especially in allocation of limited financial, human and mechanical resources for dengue epidemic management.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Sun S, Zhang Y, Huang D, et al (2020)

The effect of climate change on the richness distribution pattern of oaks (Quercus L.) in China.

The Science of the total environment, 744:140786 pii:S0048-9697(20)34310-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the air is acknowledged as one of the main reason for observed global climatic change. This phenomenon significantly affects the species geographical distribution, and changes their richness distribution pattern. Oak (Quercus L.) is an important component of forests in China, and it has significant ecological value. Based on the distribution data of 35 species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the potential richness distribution of Quercus L. in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model under present climatic conditions and three different emission scenarios in the years 2050 and 2070 with six General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results revealed that Quercus L. at present was primarily distributed in the mountainous areas of southwestern China. The simulations indicated that climate change could affect the spatial pattern of the richness distribution, and if climate change intensified, its impact would gradually increase. As temperatures rise, the distribution of Quercus L. was predicted to be concentrated, and suitable areas of certain species would contract. These species may migrate to high altitudes or high latitudes. The high percentage of species lost is the reason for the higher turnover values in the mountainous areas, while other regions are mostly be influenced by the high percentage of species gained associated with the northward shift of species. Predicting changes in the richness distribution pattern of Quercus L. as a result of climate change can help us understand the biogeography of Quercus L. and enact conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Pradhan P, Kriewald S, Costa L, et al (2020)

Urban food systems: how regionalization can contribute to climate change mitigation.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains towards a regional rather than a global basis. Whilst such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7,108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting towards diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 °C in the future.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Ode Geo , Halim , WO Rachmasari Ariani (2020)

Farming Production Analysis of Seaweed and Farmer's Perception towards Climate Change Effect in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS, 23(8):1004-1009.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The seaweed farming has a high economic value for the community's economic development as well as one of the cores of the national economic support. Therefore, it is relatively easy for farmers to adopt its technical cultivation. Moreover, 80% of fishery products in Southeast Sulawesi are seaweed commodities. This study was to know the income of seaweed in Southeast Sulawesi and the coping strategy of climate change effect.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This research was carried out from September-December, 2019 in Regency of Central Buton and Bombana, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. There were 311 farmers selected by simple random sampling. Primary data was collected through direct face to face interviews guided by questionnaires, while secondary data was obtained from documentary observation from related institutions. This was then analyzed descriptively.

RESULTS: The result revealed that the average income of seaweed farmers is approximately IDR 8,566,000 for each production season. Moreover, in conforming climate change, farmers had been prepared with superior and qualified seed and strong construction stretch which was relatively safe for deeper waters. At the same time, they also had livelihood alternatives.

CONCLUSION: The results of the analysis and discussion showed that average income of seaweed farmers was IDR 8,566,000 for each production season, R-C ratio value is 2.30 and it means that seaweed farming is financially profitable to continue to work on.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Kyu Lee S, T An Dang (2020)

Crop Calendar Shift as a Climate Change Adaptation Solution for Cassava Cultivation Area of Binh Thuan Province, Vietnam.

Pakistan journal of biological sciences : PJBS, 23(7):946-952.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Binh Thuan Province is one of the large cassava cultivation areas in Vietnam. However, in recent years the cassava crops are facing the increased risks of irrigation water shortage due to drought and abnormal change of rainfall under the impacts of climate variability (ICV), leading to reduce crop yield. The study was, therefore, conducted to define a suitable period for planting cassava crops in Binh Thuan Province, Vietnam to reduce the negative impacts of weather factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted using the AquaCrop model to predict the cassava yield corresponding to different crop calendars to define the suitable planting period. The model performance was appraised through the calibration and validation process with the index of agreement (d), correlation coefficient (r) up to 0.80 and RMSE lower than 0.40.

RESULTS: The results carry out that the cassava yield can be reached 48.18 t ha-1 if the crop calendar (CC) is early shifted from 14-21 days compared with the current crop calendar (CCC) for spring crop while an increase of approximately 5.16% can be achieved if the CC is delayed from 7-14 days for summer crop season. The results stated that the proposed model is suitable for defining the CC based on its simulated biomass and cassava yield.

CONCLUSION: The study indicated that rainfall plays an important role in the planting calendar of cassava crops. Through, it is also confirmed that planting calendars of cassava crops is not appropriate for current weather conditions.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Paudel S, Lin PA, Hoover K, et al (2020)

Asymmetric Responses to Climate Change: Temperature Differentially Alters Herbivore Salivary Elicitor and Host Plant Responses to Herbivory.

Journal of chemical ecology pii:10.1007/s10886-020-01201-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The effect of temperature on insect-plant interactions in the face of changing climate is complex as the plant, its herbivores and their interactions are usually affected differentially leading to an asymmetry in response. Using experimental warming and a combination of biochemical and herbivory bioassays, the effects of elevated temperatures and herbivore damage (Helicoverpa zea) on resistance and tolerance traits of Solanum lycopersicum var. Better boy (tomato), as well as herbivory performance and salivary defense elicitors were examined. Insects and plants were differentially sensitive towards warming within the experimental temperature range. Herbivore growth rate increased with temperature, whereas plants growth as well as the ability to tolerate stress measured by photosynthesis recovery and regrowth ability were compromised at the highest temperature regime. In particular, temperature influenced the caterpillars' capacity to induce plant defenses due to changes in the amount of a salivary defense elicitor, glucose oxidase (GOX). This was further complexed by the temperature effects on plant inducibility, which was significantly enhanced at an above-optimum temperature; this paralleled with an increased plants resistance to herbivory but significantly varied between previously damaged and undamaged leaves. Elevated temperatures produced asymmetry in species' responses and changes in the relationship among species, indicating a more complicated response under a climate change scenario.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Tsai HY, Rubenstein DR, Fan YM, et al (2020)

Author Correction: Locally-adapted reproductive photoperiodism determines population vulnerability to climate change in burying beetles.

Nature communications, 11(1):3754 pii:10.1038/s41467-020-17567-w.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-07-23

Li F, Zhou H, Huang DS, et al (2020)

Global Research Output and Theme Trends on Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: A Restrospective Bibliometric and Co-Word Biclustering Investigation of Papers Indexed in PubMed (1999-2018).

International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(14): pii:ijerph17145228.

Climate change is a challenge for the sustainable development of an international economy and society. The impact of climate change on infectious diseases has been regarded as one of the most urgent research topics. In this paper, an analysis of the bibliometrics, co-word biclustering, and strategic diagram was performed to evaluate global scientific production, hotspots, and developing trends regarding climate change and infectious diseases, based on the data of two decades (1999-2008 and 2009-2018) from PubMed. According to the search strategy and inclusion criteria, a total of 1443 publications were found on the topic of climate change and infectious diseases. There has been increasing research productivity in this field, which has been supported by a wide range of subject categories. The top highly-frequent major MeSH (medical subject headings)/subheading combination terms could be divided into four clusters for the first decade and five for the second decade using a biclustering analysis. At present, some significant public health challenges (global health, and travel and tropical climate, etc.) are at the center of the whole target research network. In the last ten years, "Statistical model", "Diarrhea", "Dengue", "Ecosystem and biodiversity", and "Zoonoses" have been considered as emerging hotspots, but they still need more attention for further development.

RevDate: 2020-07-22

Zhang J, Tian H, Shi H, et al (2020)

Increased greenhouse gas emission intensity of major croplands in China: implications for food security and climate change mitigation.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Balancing crop production and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from agriculture soil requires a better understanding and quantification of crop GHGs emission intensity, a measure of GHG emissions per unit crop production. Here, we conduct a state-of-the-art estimate of the spatial-temporal variability of GHG emission intensities for wheat, maize, and rice in China from 1949-2012 using an improved agricultural ecosystem model (DLEM-AG2.0) and meta-analysis covering 172 field-GHG emission experiments. The results show that the GHG emission intensities of these croplands from 1949-2012, on average, were 0.10-1.31 kg CO2 -eq kg-1 , with a significant increase rate of 1.84-3.58×10-3 kg CO2 -eq kg-1 yr-1 . Nitrogen fertilizer was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in GHG emission intensity in northern China and increased its impact in southern China in the 2000s. Increasing GHG emission intensity implies that excessive fertilizer failed to markedly stimulate crop yield increase in China but still exacerbated soil GHG emissions. This study found that overfertilization of more than 60% was mainly located in the winter wheat-summer maize rotation systems in the North China Plain, the winter wheat-rice rotation systems in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwest China, and most of the double rice systems in the South. Our simulations suggest that roughly a one-third reduction in the current N fertilizer application level over these "overfertilization" regions would not significantly influence crop yield but decrease soil GHG emissions by 29.60%-32.50% and GHG emission intensity by 0.13-0.25 kg CO2 -eq kg-1 . This reduction is about 29% and 5% of total agricultural soil GHG emissions in China and the world, respectively. This study suggests that improving nitrogen use efficiency would be an effective strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and sustain China's food security.

RevDate: 2020-07-21

Munns R (2008)

Editorial: Food security, climate change and biofuels: Integrative plant biology is now in the spotlight.

Functional plant biology : FPB, 35(8):iii.

RevDate: 2020-07-21

Tissue DT, DS Ellsworth (2008)

Foreword: Measuring impacts of climate change on plants.

Functional plant biology : FPB, 35(6):iii-iv.

RevDate: 2020-07-20

Kobusińska ME, Lewandowski KK, Panasiuk A, et al (2020)

Precursors of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in Arctic and Antarctic marine sediments: Environmental concern in the face of climate change.

Chemosphere, 260:127605 pii:S0045-6535(20)31800-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) and their precursors - pentachlorophenol (PCP) and triclosan (TCS), constitute a group of persistent, highly toxic multimedia pollutants, being easily transported via atmosphere over long distances, thus particularly threatening to the polar areas. The global fate of PCDD/Fs is temperature-dependent, and their transfer and immobilization at the Poles are described by the grasshopper effect and the cold trap phenomenon. The aim of this interdisciplinary study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the present state of pollution of Arctic and Antarctic marine sediments by PCP and TCS along with determination of PCDD/Fs contamination by immunoassay. Sediments from 20 stations were collected during two polar expeditions (2013-2016). The study area covered Hornsund Fjord and the southwest coast of Wedel-Jarlsberg Land (Arctic) - Skodde Bay, Nottingham Bay, Isbjørnhamna Bay and Admiralty Bay (Antarctica) - Suszczewski Cove, Halfmoon Cove and Herve Cove. The studied contaminants were quantified in 60% of the collected sediments, with almost half exceeding the environmentally safe levels according European regulations and worldwide literature. The determined levels of PCP, TCS and PCDD/F in Arctic and Antarctic sediments were to be comparable to those reported in the southern Baltic Sea located in the intense industrialized mid-latitudes. Maximum concentrations were observed in the vicinity of retreating, marine terminating glaciers. This observation confirms reemission of POPs into the global cycle with respect to the worldwide ocean warming. The results of this study should gain attention of the international and regional environmental agencies as well as the main chlorine production decision makers.

RevDate: 2020-07-20

Nguyen QA, Hens L, Nguyen N, et al (2020)

Explaining Intentions by Vietnamese Schoolchildren to Adopt Pro-Environmental Behaviors in Response to Climate Change Using Theories of Persuasive Communication.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01334-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change adaptation capacity remains low among vulnerable communities in developing countries such as Vietnam. Vector-borne diseases as dengue fever are increasing as a result of changing weather patterns. This study aims to examine the impact of key psychological variables in the Theory of Reasoned Action, the Theory of Planned Behavior, an Extended Parallel Process Model and the Social Cognitive Theory on the intention of schoolchildren to engage in climate change adaptation behavior-in this study, practices which would help reduce the risks of contracting dengue fever. It also seeks to identify the most salient predictors of the behavioral intention across these theories. Data were obtained from 796 Vietnamese schoolchildren who completed questionnaires measuring constructs of the four theories. Multivariate data analysis demonstrated that self-efficacy and severity appeared to be significant and consistent predictors of the individual's intention to reduce dengue fever. The results provide practical suggestions for the use of the theorical constructs tested in climate change communication campaigns in Vietnam and insights generally on pro-environmental behavior change.

RevDate: 2020-07-20

Hultine KR, Allan GJ, Blasini D, et al (2020)

Adaptive capacity in the foundation tree species Populus fremontii: implications for resilience to climate change and non-native species invasion in the American Southwest.

Conservation physiology, 8(1):coaa061 pii:coaa061.

Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood) is recognized as one of the most important foundation tree species in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico because of its ability to structure communities across multiple trophic levels, drive ecosystem processes and influence biodiversity via genetic-based functional trait variation. However, the areal extent of P. fremontii cover has declined dramatically over the last century due to the effects of surface water diversions, non-native species invasions and more recently climate change. Consequently, P. fremontii gallery forests are considered amongst the most threatened forest types in North America. In this paper, we unify four conceptual areas of genes to ecosystems research related to P. fremontii's capacity to survive or even thrive under current and future environmental conditions: (i) hydraulic function related to canopy thermal regulation during heat waves; (ii) mycorrhizal mutualists in relation to resiliency to climate change and invasion by the non-native tree/shrub, Tamarix; (iii) phenotypic plasticity as a mechanism for coping with rapid changes in climate; and (iv) hybridization between P. fremontii and other closely related Populus species where enhanced vigour of hybrids may preserve the foundational capacity of Populus in the face of environmental change. We also discuss opportunities to scale these conceptual areas from genes to the ecosystem level via remote sensing. We anticipate that the exploration of these conceptual areas of research will facilitate solutions to climate change with a foundation species that is recognized as being critically important for biodiversity conservation and could serve as a model for adaptive management of arid regions in the southwestern USA and around the world.

RevDate: 2020-07-20

Trájer AJ (2020)

The changing risk patterns of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece due to climate change.

International journal of environmental health research [Epub ahead of print].

It has great importance to study the potential effects of climate change on Plasmodium vivax malaria in Greece because the country can be the origin of the spread of vivax malaria to the northern areas. The potential lengths of the transmission seasons of Plasmodium vivax malaria were forecasted for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 and were combined. The potential ranges were predicted by Climate Envelope Modelling Method. The models show moderate areal increase and altitudinal shift in the malaria-endemic areas in Greece in the future. The length of the transmission season is predicted to increase by 1 to 2 months, mainly in the mid-elevation regions and the Aegean Archipelago. The combined factors also predict the decrease of vivax malaria-free area in Greece. It can be concluded that rather the elongation of the transmission season will lead to an increase of the malaria risk in Greece than the increase in the suitability values.

RevDate: 2020-07-19

Raoufi RS, S Soufizadeh (2020)

Simulation of the impacts of climate change on phenology, growth, and yield of various rice genotypes in humid sub-tropical environments using AquaCrop-Rice.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01946-5 [Epub ahead of print].

In the light of continuing anthropogenic climate change, it is important to gain a deep understanding of rice genotypic behavior under climate change. Most efforts on modeling rice performance under climate change focused on studying some aspects of climate change only such as CO2 concentration ([CO2]) or temperature. A comprehensive study on the role of genotypic variability in rice under diverse [CO2] × temperature × rainfall × representative concentration pathway (RCP) × environment is rare. The objective of the present study was to use AquaCrop-Rice model to study the impact of climate change on different rice cultivars in northern Iran. Three common improved and local rice cultivars were chosen, and their growth and yield behavior were simulated under three environments, three RCPs (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), four temperature (+ 1 °C, + 2 °C, + 3 °C, + 4 °C), and two rainfall (± 20%) scenarios under two future timeframes (2020-2051 and 2052-2083). Results indicated different responses of rice cultivars under climate change. In general, improved cultivars acted better than the local cultivar although interaction with environment was also observed. Increase in [CO2] and temperature most often favored rice yield. However, RCP8.5 along with temperature scenario + 1 °C resulted in the highest aboveground biomass and yield. Rainfall variation was not of considerable importance. Phenology (flowering and physiological maturity) was accelerated especially by temperature. The length of the vegetative phase was more influenced by temperature than the length of the generative phase. Our simulations also indicated a potential for adaptation of improved cultivars under increasing [CO2] through their reduced stomatal conductance.

RevDate: 2020-07-18

Cunsolo A, Harper SL, Minor K, et al (2020)

Ecological grief and anxiety: the start of a healthy response to climate change?.

The Lancet. Planetary health, 4(7):e261-e263.

RevDate: 2020-07-17

Grant CA, AL Hicks (2020)

Global Warming Impacts of Residential Electricity Consumption: Agent Based Modeling of Rooftop Solar Panel Adoption in Los Angeles County, California.

Integrated environmental assessment and management [Epub ahead of print].

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are a renewable electricity technology with lower carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 e) impacts compared to fossil electricity, making it a technology of interest with respect to combatting global climate change. This paper combines agent-based modeling (ABM) with life cycle assessment (LCA) to simulate rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Los Angeles (LA) County from 2018-2050 and generate CO2 e impact data at the societal level to compare PV and grid electricity. With respect to solar PV panels, consumer adoption is the "pull" that moves the system and corresponding life-cycle CO2 e impacts forward. ABM is used to evaluate the impact of policies and evolutions in technology on the adoption of solar PV. LCA is used to quantify the life-cycle CO2 e impacts of solar PV (including raw materials, manufacturing, and use). The results show that scenarios that increase PV adoption also increase the CO2 e impacts from solar PV use in the short term, due to the raw materials and manufacturing portions of the life cycle. Yet, in the long term, adoption of solar PV may provide CO2 e impact savings from offsetting grid electricity (although this is dependent on the carbon intensity of the electricity sources). The CO2 e impacts of solar panels are dominated by the raw materials and manufacturing phases on a product level basis, but the use phase contributes to the majority of environmental impact savings from an adoption and societal-level perspective. Future work may apply the methodology to other locations in the United States to evaluate if solar panels are an advantageous electricity source compared to the environmental impacts of the electricity grid. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-07-17

de Moraes KF, Santos MPD, Gonçalves GSR, et al (2020)

Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon.

PloS one, 15(7):e0236103 pii:PONE-D-20-02178.

In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have been potentiated by several anthropogenic processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly threatens biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are among the most impacted biological realms. The Belém endemism center, which is one of the several endemism centers in Amazon, is located in the most affected area within the so-called "Deforestation Arc." Moreover, this region harbors a high concentration of Amazonian endangered bird species, of which 56% of them are considered to be under the threat of extinction. In this work, we sought to evaluate the current and future impacts of both climate change and deforestation on the distribution of endemic birds in the Belém Area of Endemism (BEA). Thus, we generated species distribution models for the 16 endemic bird species considering the current and two future gas emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). We also evaluated climate change impacts on these birds in three different dispersal contexts. Our results indicate that BAE, the endemic taxa will lose an average of 73% of suitable areas by 2050. At least six of these birds species will have less than 10% or no future suitable habitat in all emission scenarios. One of the main mechanisms used to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these species in the near future is to assess the current system of protected areas. It is necessary to ensure that these areas will continue being effective in conserving these species even under climate change. The "Gurupi Mosaic" and the "Rio-Capim" watershed are areas of great importance because they are considered climate refuges according to our study. Thus, conservation efforts should be directed to the maintenance and preservation of these two large remnants of vegetation in addition to creating ecological corridors between them.

RevDate: 2020-07-17

LeMoine MT, Eby LA, Clancy CG, et al (2020)

Landscape resistance mediates native fish species distribution shifts and vulnerability to climate change in riverscapes.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

A broader understanding of how landscape resistance influences climate change vulnerability for many species is needed, as is an understanding of how barriers to dispersal may impact vulnerability. Freshwater biodiversity is at particular risk, but previous studies have focused on popular cold-water fishes (e.g., salmon, trout, and char) with relatively large body sizes and mobility. Those fishes may be able to track habitat change more adeptly than less mobile species. Smaller, less mobile fishes are rarely represented in studies demonstrating effects of climate change, but depending on their thermal tolerance, they may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. By revisiting 280 sites over a 20-year interval throughout a warming riverscape, we described changes in occupancy (i.e., site extirpation and colonization probabilities) and assessed the environmental conditions associated with those changes for four fishes spanning a range of body sizes, thermal and habitat preferences. Two larger bodied trout species exhibited small changes in site occupancy, with bull trout experiencing a 9.2% (95% CI = 8.3%-10.1%) reduction, mostly in warmer stream reaches, and westslope cutthroat trout experiencing a nonsignificant 1% increase. The small-bodied cool water slimy sculpin, originally distributed broadly throughout the network, experienced a 48.0% (95% CI = 42.0%-54.0%) reduction in site occupancy, with declines common in warmer stream reaches and areas subject to wildfire disturbances. The small-bodied comparatively warmer water longnose dace primarily occupied larger streams and increased its occurrence in the lower portions of connected tributaries during the study period. Distribution shifts for sculpin and dace were significantly constrained by barriers, which included anthropogenic water diversions, natural step-pools and cascades in steeper upstream reaches. Our results suggest that aquatic communities exhibit a range of responses to climate change, and that improving passage and fluvial connectivity will be important climate adaptation tactics for conserving aquatic biodiversity.

RevDate: 2020-07-17

Asekun-Olarinmoye EO, Bamidele JO, Odu OO, et al (2014)

Public perception of climate change and its impact on health and environment in rural southwestern Nigeria.

Research and reports in tropical medicine, 5:1-10.

Background: Climate change (CC) has received extensive media attention recently, and it is currently on the international public health agenda. A study of knowledge and attitudes to climate change, most especially from rural Nigerian communities, is important for developing adaptation strategies. This is a study of public perceptions of CC and its impact on health and environment in rural southwestern Nigeria.

Methods: This was a community-based descriptive cross-sectional study of 1,019 rural respondents using a multistage sampling method. The research instrument used was a pretested, structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. χ2, Cramér's V, and Kendall's τ-c statistics were employed in addition to fitting the data to a logistic regression model to explore associations found significant on bivariate analysis.

Results: Mean age of respondents was 36.9 (±12.4) years. About 911 (89.4%) of respondents opined that there has been a change in climate in the last 10 years. Supernatural reasons were prominent among respondent-reported causes of CC. Identified risky behavior contributing to CC included smoking (10.7%), bush burning (33.4%), and tree felling (41.0%). Poor knowledge of causes but good knowledge of effects of CC were found in this study. About two-thirds of respondents had a positive attitude to causes of CC, while half had a positive attitude to the effects of CC. A significant association was found between educational status (P˂0.001, Kendall's τ-c=-0.042), occupational status (P˂0.01, Kendall's τ-c=0.088), and attitude to causes of CC. Further analysis using logistic regression showed that occupational status was significantly associated with likelihood of having a positive attitude, but educational status and marital status were not.

Conclusion: Rural areas of Nigeria are vulnerable to the adverse effects of CC. Respondents' poor knowledge but positive attitude to CC calls for dissemination of adequate information on CC in sustained health-promotion programs.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Høye TT (2020)

Arthropods and climate change - arctic challenges and opportunities.

Current opinion in insect science, 41:40-45 pii:S2214-5745(20)30084-5 [Epub ahead of print].

The harsh climate, limited human infrastructures, and basic autecological knowledge gaps represent substantial challenges for studying arthropods in the Arctic. At the same time, rapid climate change, low species diversity, and strong collaborative networks provide unique and underexploited Arctic opportunities for understanding species responses to environmental change and testing ecological theory. Here, I provide an overview of individual, population, and ecosystem level responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods. I focus on thermal performance, life history variation, population dynamics, community composition, diversity, and biotic interactions. The species-poor Arctic represents a unique opportunity for testing novel, automated arthropod monitoring methods. The Arctic can also potentially provide insights to further understand and mitigate the effects of climate change on arthropods worldwide.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Cao B, Z Yin (2020)

Future atmospheric circulations benefit ozone pollution control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei with global warming.

The Science of the total environment, 743:140645 pii:S0048-9697(20)34167-X [Epub ahead of print].

Surface ozone pollution has become increasingly serious in recent years. Ozone pollution will damage human health and reducing social productivity in China. Basing on an ozone weather index (OWI) that captured the effects of climate on the ground-level ozone, large ensemble simulations by the Community Earth System Model were introduced to project future impacts of atmospheric circulation on ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in late-21st century. In the future, atmospheric circulations will favour the control of ozone pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The OWI decreased overall during the 21st century, which was nearly ignored by other studies on ozone projections. The OWI decrease was mainly due to the increase in regional precipitation and partly due to the changes of wind and the temperature difference between 200 hPa and lower-troposphere. The increased total precipitation in the 21st century, mainly due to the increase in convectional precipitation, weakened the production of surface ozone by its shading effect (related to more cloud cover) and wet deposition impact. During 2061-2100, the South Asia High will move southward, and the west Pacific subtropical high will shift eastward; thus, the convergence of water vapour will mainly occur in South China. Consequently, the large-scale precipitation will decrease over northern China. However, because of climate warming, the increase in specific humidity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (BTH) will enhance convectional precipitation, which will be more than 4 times the decrease in large-scale precipitation.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Cuervo-Robayo AP, Ureta C, Gómez-Albores MA, et al (2020)

One hundred years of climate change in Mexico.

PloS one, 15(7):e0209808 pii:PONE-D-18-35079.

Spatial assessments of historical climate change provide information that can be used by scientists to analyze climate variation over time and evaluate, for example, its effects on biodiversity, in order to focus their research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they represent a short temporal window that impedes evaluating historical changes of climate and their impacts on biodiversity. To fill this gap, we developed climate gridded surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21st centuries: t1-1940 (1910-1949), t2-1970 (1950-1979) and t3-2000 (1980-2009), and used these interpolated surfaces to describe how climate has changed over time, both countrywide and in its 19 biogeographic provinces. Results from our characterization of climate change indicate that the mean annual temperature has increased by nearly 0.2°C on average across the whole country from t2-1970 to t3-2000. However, changes have not been spatially uniform: Nearctic provinces in the north have suffered higher temperature increases than southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled at the beginning of the 20th century but warmed consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation increased between t1-1940 and t2-1970 across the country, more notably in the northern provinces, and it decreased between t2-1970 and t3-2000 in most of the country. Results on the historical climate conditions in Mexico may be useful for climate change analyses for both environmental and social sciences. Nonetheless, our climatology was based on information from climate stations for which 9.4-36.2% presented inhomogeneities over time probably owing to non-climatic factors, and climate station density changed over time. Therefore, the estimated changes observed in our analysis need to be interpreted cautiously.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Vanderkelen I, Zschleischler J, Gudmundsson L, et al (2020)

A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-01951-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Ecotron facilities allow accurate control of many environmental variables coupled with extensive monitoring of ecosystem processes. They therefore require multivariate perturbation of climate variables, close to what is observed in the field and projections for the future. Here, we present a new method for creating realistic climate forcing for manipulation experiments and apply it to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment. The new methodology uses data derived from the best available regional climate model projection and consists of generating climate forcing along a gradient representative of increasingly high global mean air temperature anomalies. We first identified the best-performing regional climate model simulation for the ecotron site from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment in the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble based on two criteria: (i) highest skill compared to observations from a nearby weather station and (ii) representativeness of the multi-model mean in future projections. The time window is subsequently selected from the model projection for each ecotron unit based on the global mean air temperature of the driving global climate model. The ecotron units are forced with 3-hourly output from the projections of the 5-year period in which the global mean air temperature crosses the predefined values. With the new approach, Ecotron facilities become able to assess ecosystem responses on changing climatic conditions, while accounting for the co-variation between climatic variables and their projection in variability, well representing possible compound events. The presented methodology can also be applied to other manipulation experiments, aiming at investigating ecosystem responses to realistic future climate change.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Odom RH, WM Ford (2020)

Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01331-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-B1, moderate-A1B, and high-A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

RevDate: 2020-07-17

Rehr RC, Bandaragoda C, Zaitchik BF, et al (2020)

A GeoHealth Response to a Geoscience Community Climate Change Position Statement.

GeoHealth, 4(7):e2020GH000265.

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) issues position statements reflecting the state of the science and scientific consensus. AGU position statements can be used to support public and institutional policy development, conversations with peers and policymakers, and formal and informal education. The recent climate change position statement, "Society Must Address the Growing Climate Crisis now," provides important baseline information but lacks detail on critical climate and health impacts and actions for AGU and members. This commentary shares feedback from the AGU's GeoHealth Section and encourages members to use the AGU statement and engage in the comment process for other statements.

RevDate: 2020-07-17

Green L, Wood S, MA Bellis (2020)

Rising to the triple challenge of covid-19, Brexit, and climate change.

BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 370:m2798.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Lahn B (2020)

Changing climate change: The carbon budget and the modifying-work of the IPCC.

Social studies of science [Epub ahead of print].

Over the last 10 years, the concept of a global 'carbon budget' of allowable CO2 emissions has become ubiquitous in climate science and policy. Since it was brought to prominence by the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the carbon budget has changed how climate change is enacted as an issue of public concern, from determining the optimal rate of future emissions to establishing a fixed limit for how much emissions should be allowed before they must be stopped altogether. Exploring the emergence of the carbon budget concept, this article shows how the assessment process of the IPCC has offered scientific experts the means to modify how the climate issue is problematized, and discusses the implications of this 'modifying-work' for the politics of climate change. It finds that the 'modified climate issue' must be seen as an outcome of the ordinary work within established scientific and political institutions, and the agency these institutions afford scientists to enact the issue differently. On this basis, it argues that the case of the carbon budget holds important insights not only for the relationship between climate science and policy, but also for the pragmatist literature on 'issue formation' in STS.

RevDate: 2020-07-16

Cai M, Murtazashvili I, Murtazashvili JB, et al (2020)

Patience and climate change mitigation: Global evidence.

Environmental research, 186:109552.

Complex policy problems such as climate mitigation have an economic, political, and social dimension. We focus on one of the social dimensions of climate change mitigation: the link between society-wide patience (future orientation) and adoption of public policies to combat global greenhouse gas emissions. Theoretically, future-oriented societies are more likely to accept current costs in exchange for long-run benefits posed by climate change mitigation than impatient (present-oriented) ones, cooperate in efforts to combat climate change, and support future-oriented governments. We evaluate this claim using evidence from a cross-section of countries. Controlling for other theoretically relevant factors, we find that patient societies are more likely to adopt public policies to mitigate climate change.

RevDate: 2020-07-15

de Azevedo TS, Lorenz C, Chiaravalloti-Neto F, et al (2020)

Kerteszia cruzii and extra-Amazonian malaria in Brazil: Challenges due to climate change in the Atlantic Forest.

Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases pii:S1567-1348(20)30287-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Kerteszia cruzii is a sylvatic mosquito and the primary vector of Plasmodium spp., which can cause malaria in humans in areas outside the Amazon River basin in Brazil. Anthropic changes in the natural environments are the major drivers of massive deforestation and local climate change, with serious impacts on the dynamics of mosquito communities and on the risk of acquiring malaria. Considering the lack of information on the dynamics of malaria transmission in areas across the Atlantic Forest biome, where Ke. cruzii is the dominant vector, and the impact of climate drivers of malaria, the present study aimed to: (i) investigate the occurrence and survival rate of Ke. cruzii based on the distinct vegetation profiles found in areas across the coastal region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome; (ii) estimate the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and survival rates of P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites in Ke. cruzii under current and future scenarios. The potential distribution of Plasmodium spp. was estimated using simulation analyses under distinct scenarios of average temperature increases from 1 °C to 3.7 °C. Our results showed that two conditions are necessary to explain the occurrence and survival of Ke. cruzii: warm temperature and presence of the Atlantic Forest biome. Moreover, both Plasmodium species showed a tendency to decrease their EIP and increase their estimated survival rates in a scenario of higher temperature. Our findings support that the high-risk malaria areas may include the southern region of the distribution range of the Atlantic Forest biome in the coming years. Despite its limitations and assumptions, the present study provides robust evidence of areas with potential to be impacted by malaria incidence in a future scenario. These areas should be monitored in the next decades regarding the occurrence of the mosquito vector and the potential for malaria persistence and increased occurrence.

RevDate: 2020-07-15

Fourment M, Ferrer M, Barbeau G, et al (2020)

Local Perceptions, Vulnerability and Adaptive Responses to Climate Change and Variability in a Winegrowing Region in Uruguay.

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-020-01330-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Understanding climate variability in a winegrowing region is fundamental to understanding how its vineyards can adapt to climate change. For Uruguay, studying the vulnerability and adaptive responses of vineyards to climate change and climate variability is relevant due to its winegrowing region's economic importance and cultural heritage. Winegrowers and technical advisors were interviewed to evaluate their perceptions of climate change, vulnerability of their vineyards and how to adapt them. The main results showed that winegrowers had a clear perception of annual climate variability. The respondents highlighted the extreme climate events that had occurred over the previous few years and 71% of them believed that they had increased in frequency. Despite the perception of increase in climate variability in the region, they did not associate it with climate change. Overall, 43% of respondents agreed that changes in certain viticulture practices in recent years could have been due to climate change, especially those related to the preventive use of pesticides. The respondents identified climate risks that resulted in "bad" years for yield and quality (increase in extreme events (e.g., storms, hail), decrease in "cold" units in winter (i.e., temperatures <0 °C), increase in "hot" hours (i.e., >35 °C), increase in precipitation during the growing season and ripening period) as well as their impacts on vineyards. An adaptation matrix was developed from the viticulture practices that the winegrowers used in response to climate variability. Medium- and long-term adaptive responses to climate change can be based on the knowledge of winegrowers and their advisors.

RevDate: 2020-07-14

Biagioni B, Annesi-Maesano I, D'Amato G, et al (2020)

The rising of allergic respiratory diseases in a changing world: from climate change to migration.

Expert review of respiratory medicine [Epub ahead of print].

INTRODUCTION: The rising of allergic respiratory diseases (ARDs) suggests a decisive role of environmental factors, that have dramatically changed in the last decades.

AREAS COVERED: This review addresses various aspects of the external exposome acting on the development, progression, clinical presentation and severity of ARDs. Climate change, air pollution and biodiversity loss act directly and through their complex interactions on atopic risk: reacent foundings on these aspects are discussed herein. The review also focuses on migration studies, underling the possible role of migrant status as an experimental model to study environment effects on atopy onset and progression.

EXPERT OPINION: Future perspective on this topic include prevention and mitigation strategies in regard to pollution and climate change, improvement of environmental monitoring methods, implementation of public health policies, further advances in "omics" research and knowledge, prospective and immunological research on migrant populations and new policies to face human mobility.

RevDate: 2020-07-14

Champion C, Broadhurst MK, Ewere EE, et al (2020)

Resilience to the interactive effects of climate change and discard stress in the commercially important blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus).

Marine environmental research, 159:105009.

Globally, millions of people depend on nutritional benefits from seafood consumption, but few studies have tested for effects of near-future climate change on seafood health and quality. Quantitative assessments of the interactive effects of climate change and discarding of fisheries resources are also lacking, despite ~10% of global catches being discarded annually. Utilising the harvested blue swimmer crab (Portunus armatus), we experimentally tested the effects of near-future temperature and salinity treatments under simulated capture and discarding on a suite of health and nutritional quality parameters. We show that nutritional quality (protein, lipids, moisture content and fatty acid composition) was not significantly affected by near-future climate change. Further, stress biomarkers (catalase and glutathione S-transferases activity and glycogen content) did not differ significantly among treatments following simulated capture and discarding. These results support the inherent resilience of P. armatus to short-term environmental change, and indicate that negative physiological responses associated with discarding may not be exacerbated in a future ocean. We suggest that harvested estuarine species, and thus the industries and food security they underpin, may be resilient to the future effects of climate change due to their adaptation to naturally variable habitats.

RevDate: 2020-07-14

Zhang Z, Capinha C, Karger DN, et al (2020)

Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidians.

Marine environmental research, 159:104993.

Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.

RevDate: 2020-07-14

Lertzman-Lepofsky GF, Kissel AM, Sinervo B, et al (2020)

Water loss and temperature interact to compound amphibian vulnerability to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Ectotherm thermal physiology is frequently used to predict species responses to changing climates, but for amphibians, water loss may be of equal or greater importance. Using physical models, we estimated the frequency of exceeding the thermal optimum (Topt) or critical evaporative water loss (EWLcrit) limits, with and without shade- or water-seeking behaviours. Under current climatic conditions (2002-2012), we predict that harmful thermal (>Topt) and hydric (>EWLcrit) conditions limit the activity of amphibians during ~70% of snow-free days in sunny habitats. By the 2080s, we estimate that sunny and dry habitats will exceed one or both of these physiological limits during 95% of snow-free days. Counterintuitively, we find that while wet environments eliminate the risk of critical EWL, they do not reduce the risk of exceeding Topt (+2% higher). Similarly, while shaded dry environments lower the risk of exceeding Topt , critical EWL limits are still exceeded during 63% of snow-free days. Thus, no single environment that we evaluated can simultaneously reduce both physiological risks. When we forecast both temperature and EWL into the 2080s, both physiological thresholds are exceeded in all habitats during 48% of snow-free days, suggesting that there may be limited opportunity for behaviour to ameliorate climate change. We conclude that temperature and water loss act synergistically, compounding the ecophysiological risk posed by climate change, as the combined effects are more severe than those predicted individually. Our results suggest that predictions of physiological risk posed by climate change that do not account for water loss in amphibians may be severely underestimated and that there may be limited scope for facultative behaviours to mediate rapidly changing environments.

RevDate: 2020-07-14

Asadgol Z, Badirzadeh A, Niazi S, et al (2020)

How climate change can affect cholera incidence and prevalence? A systematic review.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-09992-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Although the number of cholera infection decreased universally, climate change can potentially affect both incidence and prevalence rates of disease in endemic regions. There is considerable consistent evidence, explaining the associations between cholera and climatic variables. However, it is essentially required to compare and interpret these relationships globally. The aim of the present study was to carry out a systematic review in order to identify and appraise the literature concerning the relationship between nonanthropogenic climatic variabilities such as extreme weather- and ocean-related variables and cholera infection rates. The systematic literature review of studies was conducted by using determined search terms via four major electronic databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Scopus) according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) approach. This search focused on published articles in English-language up to December 31, 2018. A total of 43 full-text studies that met our criteria have been identified and included in our analysis. The reviewed studies demonstrated that cholera incidence is highly attributed to climatic variables, especially rainfall, temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The association between cholera incidence and climatic variables has been investigated by a variety of data analysis methodologies, most commonly time series analysis, generalized linear model (GLM), regression analysis, and spatial/GIS. The results of this study assist the policy-makers who provide the efforts for planning and prevention actions in the face of changing global climatic variables.

RevDate: 2020-07-14

Ledoux JB, Cruz F, Gómez-Garrido J, et al (2020)

The Genome Sequence of the Octocoral Paramuricea clavata - A Key Resource To Study the Impact of Climate Change in the Mediterranean.

G3 (Bethesda, Md.) pii:g3.120.401371 [Epub ahead of print].

The octocoral, Paramuricea clavata, is a habitat-forming anthozoan with a key ecological role in rocky benthic and biodiversity-rich communities in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic. Shallow populations of P. clavata in the North-Western Mediterranean are severely affected by warming-induced mass mortality events (MMEs). These MMEs have differentially impacted individuals and populations of P. clavata (i.e. varied levels of tissue necrosis and mortality rates) over thousands of kilometers of coastal areas. The eco-evolutionary processes, including genetic factors, contributing to these differential responses remain to be characterized. Here, we sequenced a P. clavata individual with short and long read technologies, producing 169.98 Gb of Illumina paired-end and 3.55 Gb of Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) reads. We obtained a de novo genome assembly accounting for 607 Mb in 64,145 scaffolds. The contig and scaffold N50s are 19.15 Kb and 23.92 Kb, respectively. Despite of the low contiguity of the assembly, its gene completeness is relatively high, including 75.8% complete and 9.4% fragmented genes out of the 978 metazoan genes contained in the metazoa_odb9 database. A total of 62,652 protein-coding genes have been annotated. This assembly is one of the few octocoral genomes currently available. This is undoubtedly a valuable resource for characterizing the genetic bases of the differential responses to thermal stress and for the identification of thermo-resistant individuals and populations. Overall, having the genome of P. clavata will facilitate studies of various aspects of its evolutionary ecology and elaboration of effective conservation plans such as active restoration to overcome the threats of global change.

RevDate: 2020-07-13

Kim JH, Kim N, Moon H, et al (2020)

Global warming offsets the ecophysiological stress of ocean acidification on temperate crustose coralline algae.

Marine pollution bulletin, 157:111324.

Dramatic increases in the release of anthropogenic CO2 and global temperatures have resulted in alterations to seawater carbonate chemistry and metabolisms of marine organisms. There has been recent interest in the effects of these stressors on crustose coralline algae (CCA) because photosynthesis and calcification are influenced by all components of carbonate chemistry. To examine this, a mesocosm experiment was conducted to evaluate photosynthesis, calcification and growth in the temperate CCA Chamberlainium sp. under acidification (doubled CO2), warming (+5 °C), and greenhouse (doubled CO2 and +5 °C) conditions compared to present-day conditions. After 47 days of acclimation to these conditions, productivity was lowest under acidification, although photochemical properties were improved, while respiration was highest under warming. Likewise, growth was lowest under acidification, but this negative response was offset by elevated temperature under greenhouse. Together, these results suggest that warming offsets the negative effects of acidification by creating more suitable conditions for photosynthesis and growth.

RevDate: 2020-07-13

Shapiro LT, Jimenez V, Espinel Z, et al (2020)

Preparing Survivors of Traumatic Brain Injury for Catastrophic Hurricanes in the Time of Climate Change.

The Journal of head trauma rehabilitation [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-07-12

Rollins HB, MF Benard (2020)

Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-020-04705-w [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is creating warmer, earlier springs, which are causing the phenology of many organisms to shift. Additionally, as temperatures increase, the body size of many ectotherms is decreasing. However, phenological and body size shifts are not occurring at the same rates across species, even in species that live in close proximity or have similar life history. Differing rates of phenological and body-size shifts may affect ecological interactions. We investigated whether shifts in phenology and body size had a predictable effect on interspecific competition. We tested three hypotheses. First, priority effects would indicate early arriving organisms gain a competitive advantage. Second, larger organisms would be competitively superior. Third, similarly sized organisms would compete more strongly. We manipulated aquatic larval conditions to create variation in wood frog (Rana sylvatica) size at and date of metamorphosis. Wood frogs were placed in terrestrial enclosures with unmanipulated juvenile American toads (Anaxyrus americanus) where we tracked amphibian growth over 3 months. Consistent with the size superiority hypothesis, initially smaller wood frogs did not compete as strongly with toads. However, the results of the phenological shift were the opposite of our priority effects prediction: early arrival by frogs increased toad mass. Our results could indicate that toads would experience fewer negative effects of competition with wood frogs that metamorphose earlier and smaller under climate change. Our study highlights the challenges of predicting how climate change will affect interspecific interactions and emphasizes the need to investigate the role of shifts in both phenology and body size.

RevDate: 2020-07-11

Hastings M (2020)

Climate Change Impact and the Role of the Emergency Nurse.

Journal of emergency nursing, 46(4):407-409.

RevDate: 2020-07-10

Bogdziewicz M, Kelly D, Tanentzap AJ, et al (2020)

Climate Change Strengthens Selection for Mast Seeding in European Beech.

Current biology : CB pii:S0960-9822(20)30908-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is altering patterns of seed production worldwide [1-4], but the potential for evolutionary responses to these changes is poorly understood. Masting (synchronous, annually variable seed production by plant populations) is selectively beneficial through economies of scale that decrease the cost of reproduction per surviving offspring [5-7]. Masting is particularly widespread in temperate trees [8, 9] impacting food webs, macronutrient cycling, carbon storage, and human disease risk [10-12], so understanding its response to climate change is important. Here, we analyze inter-individual variability in plant reproductive patterns and two economies of scale-predator satiation and pollination efficiency-and document how natural selection acting upon them favors masting. Four decades of observations for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) show that predator satiation and pollination efficiency select for individuals with higher inter-annual variability of reproduction and higher reproductive synchrony between individuals. This result confirms the long-standing theory that masting, a population-level phenomenon, is generated by selection on individuals. Furthermore, recent climate-driven increases in mean seed production have increased selection pressure from seed predators but not from pollination efficiency. Natural selection is thus acting to restore the fitness benefits of masting, which have previously decreased under a warming climate [13]. However, selection will likely take far longer (centuries) than climate warming (decades), so in the short-term, tree reproduction will be reduced because masting has become less effective at satiating seed predators. Over the long-term, evolutionary responses to climate change could potentially increase inter-annual variability of seed production of masting species.

RevDate: 2020-07-10

Babin M (2020)

Climate change tweaks Arctic marine ecosystems.

Science (New York, N.Y.), 369(6500):137-138.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Prietzel J, Falk W, Reger B, et al (2020)

Half a century of Scots pine forest ecosystem monitoring reveals long-term effects of atmospheric deposition and climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

At two forest sites in Germany (Pfaffenwinkel, Pustert) stocked with mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), we investigated changes of topsoil chemistry during the recent forty years by soil inventories conducted on replicated control plots of fertilization experiments, allowing a statistical analysis. Additionally, we monitored the nutritional status of both stands from 1964 until 2019 and quantified stand growth during the monitoring period by repeated stand inventories. Moreover, we monitored climate variables (air temperature, precipitation) and calculated annual climatic water balances from 1991 to 2019. Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition between 1964 and 2019 was estimated for the period 1969-2019 by combining annual deposition measurements conducted in 1985-1987 and 2004 with long-term deposition records from long-term forest monitoring stations. We investigated interrelations between topsoil chemistry, stand nutrition, stand growth, deposition, and climate trends. At both sites, the onset of the new millennium was a turning point of important biogeochemical processes. Topsoil acidification turned into re-alkalinization, soil organic matter (SOM) accumulation stopped and likely turned into SOM depletion. In the new millennium, topsoil stocks of S and plant-available phosphorus (P) as well as S and P concentrations in Scots pine foliage decreased substantially; yet age-referenced stand growth remained at levels far above those expected from yield table data. Tree P and S nutrition as well as climate change (increased temperature and drought stress) have replaced soil acidification as major future challenges for both forests. Understanding of P and S cycling and water fluxes in forest ecosystems, and consideration of these issues in forest management are important for successfully tackling the new challenges. Our study illustrates the importance of long-term forest monitoring to identify slow, but substantial changes of forest biogeochemistry driven by natural and anthropogenic global change.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Price S (2020)

The Temperature's Rising: Preparing for the Health Effects of Climate Change.

Texas medicine, 116(5):18-23.

In Texas, climate change has been blamed for contributing to the severity of several weather and health events, including the 2011 statewide drought, the 2012 outbreak of West Nile virus in Dallas, Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the steadily increasing prevalence of vector-borne diseases like Zika and chikungunya. Here are some of the most important climate-related health problems Texas physicians can expect according to climate scientists and the physician experts Texas Medicine spoke to.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Charles K, I Stehlik (2020)

Assisted species migration and hybridization to conserve cold-adapted plants under climate change.

Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology [Epub ahead of print].

The temperature rise due to climate change is rendering many arctic and alpine plants at risk of extinction because their ability to react is outpaced by the speed of climate change. We discuss assisted species migration (ASM) and hybridization as methods to conserve cold-adapted species (or the genes thereof) and to minimize the potential perturbation of ecosystems due to climate change. ASM is the deliberate movement of individuals from their current location to where species' ecological requirements will be matched under climate projections. Hybridization refers to crossbreeding of closely related species, where for arctic and alpine plants, one parent is the threatened cold-adapted and the other its reproductively compatible, warm-adapted sibling. Traditionally, hybridization is viewed as negative and leading to a loss of biodiversity, even though hybridization has increased biodiversity over geological times. Furthermore, the incorporation of warm-adapted genes into a hybrid might be the only means for the persistence of an increasingly more maladapted cold-adapted species. If approached with thorough consideration of fitness-related parameters of the source population and the acknowledgement of the important role hybridization has played to shape the current biodiversity, ASM and hybridization could help save partial or whole genomes of key cold-adapted species at risk due to climate change with minimal negative effects on ecosystem functioning. Article Impact Statement: Assisted species migration and hybridization should be seen as positive mechanisms for saving some arctic and alpine plants, or genes thereof. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

McCann BT, Davis JM, Osborne D, et al (2020)

Quantifying climate change relevant humanitarian programming and spending across five highly disaster vulnerable countries.

Disasters [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is increasing the severity and frequency of natural hazards and associated disasters worldwide, yet there is little data tracking how and whether it is being addressed by humanitarian assistance programs. Using publicly available United Nations program data and vulnerability indexes, this study pilots a novel approach for identifying and quantifying the prevalence of climate change-related humanitarian programs from 2016-2018 in five disaster-affected countries. Funding levels of proposed and undertaken interventions were analyzed within specific programmatic sub-areas and across clusters. We found that 1.8% (99 / 5558) of projects included in humanitarian proposals reviewed by the study have a climate change-related component. Of 1361 funded projects, 40 of these projects were climate related and received funding. Methodologies piloted here for assessing and classifying climate change-related humanitarian programs could be expanded to support further tracking of humanitarian responses to climate change across operational contexts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Anenberg SC, Bindl M, Brauer M, et al (2020)

Using Satellites to Track Indicators of Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts: Lessons Learned From a NASA-Supported Science-Stakeholder Collaborative.

GeoHealth, 4(7):e2020GH000270 pii:GH2169.

The 2018 NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST) "Indicators" Tiger Team collaboration between NASA-supported scientists and civil society stakeholders aimed to develop satellite-derived global air pollution and climate indicators. This Commentary shares our experience and lessons learned. Together, the team developed methods to track wildfires, dust storms, pollen counts, urban green space, nitrogen dioxide concentrations and asthma burdens, tropospheric ozone concentrations, and urban particulate matter mortality. Participatory knowledge production can lead to more actionable information but requires time, flexibility, and continuous engagement. Ground measurements are still needed for ground truthing, and sustained collaboration over time remains a challenge.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Louppe V, Leroy B, Herrel A, et al (2020)

Author Correction: The globally invasive small Indian mongoose Urva auropunctata is likely to spread with climate change.

Scientific reports, 10(1):11595 pii:10.1038/s41598-020-68558-2.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Lehmann J, A Possinger (2020)

Removal of atmospheric CO2 by rock weathering holds promise for mitigating climate change.

Nature, 583(7815):204-205.

RevDate: 2020-07-09

Mena CS, Artz M, C Llanten (2020)

Climate change and global health: a medical anthropology perspective.

Perspectives in public health, 140(4):196-197.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )