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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 06 Dec 2019 at 01:52 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

RevDate: 2019-12-05

Jones C, Gilbert PJ, L Stamford (2019)

Assessing the Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Stationary Energy Storage for Electricity Grid Services.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

This paper presents a life cycle assessment for three stationary energy storage systems (ESS); lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery, vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) and liquid air energy storage (LAES). The global warming potential (GWP) is assessed in relation to uncertainties in usage of the storage, use-phase energy input, cell replacement and round trip efficiency parameters. Relative climate change mitigation potential in comparison with equivalent diesel-electric and natural gas generation is discussed, as is the effect of recycling at end of life. With variations in input electricity source, recycling and efficiency, the life cycle global warming potential for LFP ranges from 164 kg CO2eq/MWh to 440 kg CO¬2eq/MWh; for VRFB from 102 kg CO2eq/MWh to 443 kg CO2eq/MWh; and for LAES from 48 kg CO-2eq/MWh to 203 kg CO2eq/MWh. In all cases there are climate change mitigation benefits compared to fossil fuel alternatives. Use of renewable energy for charging and operation, ease of component recycling/reuse and reduced parts replacement reduce the GWP. The climate change mitigation potential of ESS for electricity grid operation is further enhanced by increasing use of the storage assets. Recycling of ESS is shown to reduce terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication and particulate matter impacts. Reduced ozone depletion potential for VRFB and LFP can be achieved by reducing nafion and PVDF components respectively.

RevDate: 2019-12-05

Brambilla M, Scridel D, Bazzi G, et al (2019)

Species interactions and climate change: How the disruption of species co-occurrence will impact on an avian forest guild.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole-nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate, that show a range of well-understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N-mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild-levels, as the potential area of range-overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate-sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range-overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.

RevDate: 2019-12-05

Jones SM, Hoggett M, Greene SE, et al (2019)

Large Igneous Province thermogenic greenhouse gas flux could have initiated Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate change.

Nature communications, 10(1):5547 pii:10.1038/s41467-019-12957-1.

Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) are associated with the largest climate perturbations in Earth's history. The North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP) and Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) constitute an exemplar of this association. As yet we have no means to reconstruct the pacing of LIP greenhouse gas emissions for comparison with climate records at millennial resolution. Here, we calculate carbon-based greenhouse gas fluxes associated with the NAIP at sub-millennial resolution by linking measurements of the mantle convection process that generated NAIP magma with observations of the individual geological structures that controlled gas emissions in a Monte Carlo framework. These simulations predict peak emissions flux of 0.2-0.5 PgC yr-1 and show that the NAIP could have initiated PETM climate change. This is the first predictive model of carbon emissions flux from any proposed PETM carbon source that is directly constrained by observations of the geological structures that controlled the emissions.

RevDate: 2019-12-05

du Pontavice H, Gascuel D, Reygondeau G, et al (2019)

Climate change undermines the global functioning of marine food webs.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Sea water temperature affects all biological and ecological processes that ultimately impact ecosystem functioning. In this study, we examine the influence of temperature on global biomass transfers from marine secondary production to fish stocks. By combining fisheries catches in all coastal ocean areas and life history traits of exploited marine species, we provide global estimates of two trophic transfer parameters which determine biomass flows in coastal marine food web: the trophic transfer efficiency and the biomass residence time in the food web. We find that biomass transfers in tropical ecosystems are less efficient and faster than in areas with cooler waters. In contrast, biomass transfers through the food web became faster and more efficient between 1950 and 2010. Using simulated changes in sea water temperature from three Earth system models, we project that the mean trophic transfer efficiency in coastal waters would decrease from 7.7% to 7.2% between 2010 and 2,100 under the 'no effective mitigation' Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), while biomass residence time between trophic level 2 and 4 is projected to decrease from 2.7 to 2.3 year on average. Beyond the global trends, we show that the trophic transfer efficiencies and biomass residence times may vary substantially among ecosystem types and that the polar ecosystems may be the most impacted ecosystems. The detected and projected changes in mean trophic transfer efficiency and biomass residence time will undermine food web functioning. Our study provides quantitative understanding of temperature effects on trophodynamic of marine ecosystems under climate change.

RevDate: 2019-12-05

Fahad S, J Wang (2019)

Climate change, vulnerability, and its impacts in rural Pakistan: a review.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-019-06878-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries especially in Southeast Asia experiencing floods and droughts as a result of climate change. Variation in climate adversely affects agriculture sector, ground water, nutrition, soil quality and soil organic matter, health conditions, and poverty. The main purpose of this study is to review the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies used at farm level in response to variation in temperature and precipitation. As per literature, Pakistani farmers adopt several adaptation strategies in response to climate change, like change in fertilizer, change in crop variety, pesticide, seed quality, water storage, farm diversification, plant shade trees, irrigation practices, off-farm activities, permanent and temporary migration, and selling of assets. Literature also showed that farmers living wetland area perceived less variation in climate than farm households living in dry area.

RevDate: 2019-12-05

Binns C, WY Low (2019)

Time to Get on With It: Climate Change Needs Public Health Action Now.

Asia-Pacific journal of public health, 31(7):581-583.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Weniger GC, de Andrés-Herrero M, Bolin V, et al (2019)

Late Glacial rapid climate change and human response in the Westernmost Mediterranean (Iberia and Morocco).

PloS one, 14(12):e0225049 pii:PONE-D-19-09971.

This paper investigates the correlation between climate, environment and human land use in the Westernmost Mediterranean on both sides of the Strait of Gibraltar during the Late Glacial. Using a multi-proxy approach on a sample of 300 sites from the Solutrean and Magdalenian of the Iberian Peninsula and from the Iberomaurusian in Morocco, we find evidence for significant changes in settlement patterns and site density after the Last Glacial Maximum. In Southern Iberia, during Heinrich Stadial 1, hyperarid zones expanded drastically from the south-eastern coast to the West through the Interior. This aridification process heavily affected Magdalenian settlement in the South and caused a strong decline of hunter-gatherer population. Southern Iberia during Heinrich Stadial 1 turned out to be a high-risk environment when compared to Northern Iberia. At the same time, the Late Iberomaurusian of Morocco, although considered to be situated in a high-risk environment as well, experiences an increase of sites and expansion of settlement area.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Weeks BC, Willard DE, Zimova M, et al (2019)

Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds.

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four-decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40-year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length - an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour - has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming-induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming-induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Ferreira E, Kalliola R, K Ruokolainen (2019)

Bamboo, climate change and forest use: A critical combination for southwestern Amazonian forests?.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01299-3 [Epub ahead of print].

About 160 000 km2 of forests in the border zone between Brazil and Peru are dominated by semi-scandent bamboos (Guadua spp.). We argue that both predicted decreased precipitation during the dry season and widespread anthropogenic disturbances will significantly increase the distribution and biomass of bamboos in the area. Seasonal dryness favours the growth of evergreen bamboos in relation to trees that shed their leaves during the dry season. Disturbance can be beneficial for the bamboo because, as a clonal plant, it is often able to recover more rapidly than trees. It also withstands dry season better than many trees. The bamboo life cycle ends in a mass mortality event every 28 years, producing potential fuel for a forest fire. Presently, natural forest fires hardly exist in the area. However, in the projected future climate with more pronounced dry season and with increased fuel load after bamboo die-off events the forests may start to catch fire that has escaped from inhabited areas or even started naturally. Fires can kill trees, thus further increasing the fuel load of the forest. As a result, the landscape may start to convert to a savanna ecosystem.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Zhu S, Ptak M, Choiński A, et al (2019)

Exploring and quantifying the impact of climate change on surface water temperature of a high mountain lake in Central Europe.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 192(1):7 pii:10.1007/s10661-019-7994-y.

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969-2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009-2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Shrestha S, Gunawardana SK, Piman T, et al (2019)

Assessment of the impact of climate change and mining activities on streamflow and selected metal's loading in the Chindwin River, Myanmar.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(19)30739-X [Epub ahead of print].

The rapid expansion in mining activities is deteriorating the water quality in the Chindwin River of Myanmar. In addition, climate change may also aggravate this situation in future. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a connection between hydrology, mining area, heavy metal loading, and climate change in the Chindwin River. The hydrology of the upper Chindwin basin was modelled using SHETRAN hydrological model. Geochemical model PHREEQC was utilised to conduct speciation and saturation indexes modelling along the river in order to quantify the precipitated minerals along the river. Thereafter a regression relationship along with LOADEST model was used to quantify the heavy metal loads. Future climate was projected using four RCM's namely ACCESS1-CSIRO-CCAM, CCSM4-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM. Future discharges at water quality monitoring stations were simulated using the averaged ensembles. Finally, the heavy metal loading under future climate scenarios were analysed. Results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce future discharges by 3.4%-36.5% in all stations except in the Mokekalae station which shows 1.3%-9.4% increase in the near future discharges. Also, the projected metal loading under future climate conditions shows a decreasing pattern which is similar to the projected discharge pattern. In both baseline and future climate conditions, the area between stations Naung Po Aung and Uru downstream show the highest load effluent for both arsenic and mercury while the area between stations Uru downstream and Mokekalae show the highest load of iron effluent. Although future heavy metal loadings are expected to decrease, mining activities should be carefully monitored, since they discharge a large amount of toxic heavy metal loadings into the Chindwin River which is also expected to suffer a decrease streamflow in future.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Elshkaki A, Lei S, WQ Chen (2019)

Material-energy-water nexus: Modelling the long term implications of aluminium demand and supply on global climate change up to 2050.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(19)30761-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Aluminium is a widely used metal and one of the most energy intensive industries, and therefore it has been included in most energy models and scenarios. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. In this study, we develop four global and regional process based scenarios for the material-energy-water nexus combined with CO2 emissions and applied to aluminium. The scenarios used in this study are; Market World (MW), Toward Resilience (TR), Security Foremost (SF), and Equitability World (EW). The results indicate that global CO2 emissions are expected to increase as a result of increasing aluminium demand, although aluminium secondary supply, energy efficiency, and cleaner energy supply technologies are expected to increase in the next 30 years. Policy and sustainability (TR and EW) scenarios are ultimately the best in terms of global climate change since the two scenarios have the lowest CO2 emissions, although they also have the highest aluminium demand and energy. It is therefore necessary to implement cleaner energy supply and energy efficiency technologies at high rates in aluminium industry to mitigate possible increase in CO2 emissions.

RevDate: 2019-12-04

Wang Y, Levis JW, MA Barlaz (2019)

An Assessment of the Dynamic Global Warming Impact Associated with Long-Term Emissions from Landfills.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Landfills are a major contributor of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Since the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with landfilling waste can occur over decades to centuries, the standard static approach to estimating global warming impacts may not accurately represent the global warming impacts of landfills. The objective of this study is to assess the implications of using 100-yr and 20-yr static and dynamic global warming potential (GWP) approaches to estimate the global warming impacts from municipal solid waste landfills. A life-cycle model was developed to estimate GHG emissions for three gas treatment cases (passive venting, flare, CH4 conversion to electricity) and four decay rates. For the 100-yr GWP, other model uncertainties (e.g., static GWP values, decay rate, moisture content, or gas collection efficiency) generally had a larger effect on the estimated global warming impact than the choice of static versus dynamic GWP methods. This shows that when comparing single-point GWP values, the choice of static versus dynamic is relatively unimportant for most landfills. While dynamic GWPs consider temporal variance and provide useful estimates for the warming over a set time horizon, for most comparative analyses, static values provide reasonable bounds for the actual 100-yr warming impact.

RevDate: 2019-12-03

Pu J, Wang Z, H Chung (2019)

REVIEW: Climate change and the genetics of insecticide resistance.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

Changes in global temperature and humidity as a result of climate change are producing rapid evolutionary changes in many animal species, including agricultural pests and disease vectors, leading to changes in allele frequencies of genes involved in thermotolerance and desiccation resistance. As some of these genes have pleiotropic effects on insecticide resistance, climate change is likely to affect insecticide resistance in the field. In this review, we discuss how the interactions between adaptation to climate change and resistance to insecticides can affect insecticide resistance in the field using examples in phytophagous and hematophagous pest insects, focusing on the effects of increased temperature and increased aridity. We then use the detailed genetic and mechanistic studies in the model insect, Drosophila melanogaster, to explain the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon. We suggest that tradeoffs or facilitation between adaptation to climate change and resistance to insecticides can alter insecticide resistance allele frequencies in the field. The dynamics of these interactions will need to be considered when managing agricultural pests and disease vectors in a changing climate. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-12-03

Zemp M (2019)

Glacier monitoring tracks progress in limiting climate change.

Nature, 576(7785):39.

RevDate: 2019-12-03

McMahon KW, Michelson CI, Hart T, et al (2019)

Divergent trophic responses of sympatric penguin species to historic anthropogenic exploitation and recent climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1913093116 [Epub ahead of print].

The Southern Ocean is in an era of significant change. Historic overharvesting of marine mammals and recent climatic warming have cascading impacts on resource availability and, in turn, ecosystem structure and function. We examined trophic responses of sympatric chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua) penguins to nearly 100 y of shared environmental change in the Antarctic Peninsula region using compound-specific stable isotope analyses of museum specimens. A century ago, gentoo penguins fed almost exclusively on low-trophic level prey, such as krill, during the peak of historic overexploitation of marine mammals, which was hypothesized to have resulted in a krill surplus. In the last 40 y, gentoo penguin trophic position has increased a full level as krill declined in response to recent climate change, increased competition from recovering marine mammal populations, and the development of a commercial krill fishery. A shifting isotopic baseline supporting gentoo penguins suggests a concurrent increase in coastal productivity over this time. In contrast, chinstrap penguins exhibited no change in trophic position, despite variation in krill availability over the past century. The specialized foraging niche of chinstrap penguins likely renders them more sensitive to changes in krill availability, relative to gentoo penguins, as evinced by their declining population trends in the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 40 y. Over the next century, similarly divergent trophic and population responses are likely to occur among Antarctic krill predators if climate change and other anthropogenic impacts continue to favor generalist over specialist species.

RevDate: 2019-12-03

Palmer T, B Stevens (2019)

The scientific challenge of understanding and estimating climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1906691116 [Epub ahead of print].

Given the slow unfolding of what may become catastrophic changes to Earth's climate, many are understandably distraught by failures of public policy to rise to the magnitude of the challenge. Few in the science community would think to question the scientific response to the unfolding changes. However, is the science community continuing to do its part to the best of its ability? In the domains where we can have the greatest influence, is the scientific community articulating a vision commensurate with the challenges posed by climate change? We think not.

RevDate: 2019-12-02

Starr SM, NE McIntyre (2019)

Effects of Water Temperature Under Projected Climate Change on the Development and Survival of Enallagma civile (Odonata: Coenagrionidae).

Environmental entomology pii:5626436 [Epub ahead of print].

Current climate projections for the Great Plains of North America indicate markedly increased air temperatures by the end of the current century. Because the Great Plains contains >80,000 intermittent wetlands that serve as irreplaceable wildlife habitat, this projected warming may have profound effects throughout a continental-scale trophic network. However, little research has been done to determine how projected warming may affect the growth, development, or survival of even common species in this region. We conducted laboratory warming experiments, using an abundant amphibious predatory insect, Enallagma civile (Hagen, 1861), as a model organism, to determine whether projected warming may affect development or survival. Eggs were collected and reared under four water temperature regimes representing current (26°C) and projected future conditions (32, 38, and 41°C). Nymph body size after each molt, development rate, and deaths were recorded. Elevated water temperatures were found to significantly affect the survivorship of E. civile eggs and nymphs as well as adult body size at emergence: an increase in temperature incurred a decrease in survival and size. Nymphs in the two hotter treatments were smaller and had low survivorship whereas individuals in the cooler temperatures generally survived to adulthood and were larger. Nymphs reared at 32°C experienced accelerated ontogenetic development compared with the other temperatures, going from egg to adult in 26 d. Projected elevated temperatures may, thus, be both advantageous and detrimental, causing concern for aquatic invertebrates in this region in the future.

RevDate: 2019-12-02

Gasperini AM, Rodriguez-Sixtos A, Verheecke-Vaessen C, et al (2019)

Resilience of Biocontrol for Aflatoxin Minimization Strategies: Climate Change Abiotic Factors May Affect Control in Non-GM and GM-Maize Cultivars.

Frontiers in microbiology, 10:2525.

There has been significant interest in the development of formulations of non-toxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus for control of toxigenic strains to reduce the aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) contamination of maize. In the future, climate change (CC) abiotic conditions of temperature (+2-4°C), CO2 (existing levels of 400 vs. 800-1,200 ppb), and drought stress will impact on the agronomy and control of pests and diseases. This study has examined (1) the effect of two-way interacting factors of water activity × temperature on colonization and AFB1 contamination of maize cobs of different ripening ages; (2) the effect of non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus (50:50 inoculum ratio) on relative control of toxigenic A. flavus and AFB1 contamination of ripening cobs; (3) post-harvest control of AFB1 by non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus in non-GM and isogenic GM maize cultivars using the same inoculum ratio; and (4) the impact of three-way interacting CC factors on relative control of AFB1 in maize cobs pre-harvest and in stored non-GM/GM cultivars. Pre-harvest colonization and AFB1 production by a toxigenic A. flavus strain was conserved at 37°C when compared with 30°C, at the three ripening stages of cob development examined: milk ripe (R3), dough (R4), and dent (R5). However, pre-harvest biocontrol with a non-toxigenic strain was only effective at the R3 and R4 stages and not at the R5 stage. This was supported by relative expression of the aflR regulatory biosynthetic gene in the different treatments. When exposed to three-way interacting CC factors for control of AFB1 pre-harvest, the non-toxigenic A. flavus strain was effective at R3 and £4 stages but not at the R5 stage. Post-harvest storage of non-GM and GM cultivars showed that control was achievable at 30°C, with slightly better control in GM-cultivars in terms of the overall inhibition of AFB1 production. However, in stored maize, the non-toxigenic strains of A. flavus had conserved biocontrol of AFB1 contamination, especially in the GM-maize cultivars under three-way interacting CC conditions (37°C × 1,000 ppm CO2 and drought stress). This was supported by the relative expression of the aflR gene in these treatments. This study suggests that the choice of the biocontrol strains, for pre- or post-harvest control, needs to take into account their resilience in CC-related abiotic conditions to ensure that control of AFB1 contamination can be conserved.

RevDate: 2019-12-02

Kipling RP, Topp CFE, Bannink A, et al (2019)

To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?.

Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news, 120:104492.

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

RevDate: 2019-12-02

Mabon L, Kondo K, Kanekiyo H, et al (2019)

Fukuoka: Adapting to climate change through urban green space and the built environment?.

Cities (London, England), 93:273-285.

This paper profiles Fukuoka City in Kyushu, Japan. We focus on the city's local climate change adaptation policies, and in particular the role of urban and greenspace planning in facilitating adaptation actions within Fukuoka. Fukuoka is a humid subtropical city which is currently experiencing significant population and economic growth. It has also made comparatively rigorous advances in climate adaptation, in a country context where local governments have been criticised for focusing more on mitigation. Fukuoka hence may yield lessons for other rapidly urbanising subtropical Asian cities. We illustrate that Fukuoka has a long tradition of science-policy connection towards the creation of a liveable urban environment. This creates a favourable research and policy infrastructure for adaptation, in particular mitigation of heat risk. This is evidenced in consideration of climate issues within the city's greenspace plans since the 1990s, and in an extensive body of underpinning applied research from local institutions into urban thermal environments in particular. Fukuoka's green terraced ACROS building has come to symbolise adaptation via the built environment, and has been followed by the emergence of further green roofs and through citizen and private sector involvement in smaller-scale greening actions. We caution that challenges remain around connecting different sections of local governments, and in maintaining climate and environmental imperatives in the face of ongoing development and expansion pressures.

RevDate: 2019-12-02

Wu Z, Dai E, Wu Z, et al (2019)

Assessing differences in the response of forest aboveground biomass and composition under climate change in subtropical forest transition zone.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(19)35741-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The subtropical forest transition zone in southern China is a typical transition zone with high coverage and diverse vegetation. Projected climate change will affect physiological processes of trees, which would consequently alter the forest aboveground biomass (AGB) and composition at broad spatial scales. However, spatially heterogeneous responses may also be shaped by climate change, succession, and harvesting in different forest habitats. The objectives of this study were to assess the changes in subtropical forest AGB and composition in response to climate change, while comparing the responses of two similar forest landscapes: Taihe County (TH) and Longnan County (LN). We used a loose-coupling of PnET-II with LANDIS-II to simulate changes in forest AGB and composition under climate change scenarios (Current climate, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) with harvest disturbances. Our simulation results demonstrated that forest AGB and composition were significantly affected by climate change in both landscapes. Changes in forest AGB was mostly driven by succession and harvest, but climate change also greatly contribute to the variation in AGB of deciduous broad-leaved forests (DBF), and coniferous forests (CF). Moreover, a larger area of LN experienced biomass reduction compared to TH, specifically under the RCP8.5 scenario. Given our estimates of the response in forest AGB and composition under climate change scenarios across different periods, we recommend that the regional forest management should be localized and should consider the effects of climate change through time in their planning schemes.

RevDate: 2019-12-01

Muret J, Kelway C, Members of the SFAR's Sustainability Group (French Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care) (2019)

Why should anaesthesiologists and intensivists care about climate change?.

Anaesthesia, critical care & pain medicine, 38(6):565-567.

RevDate: 2019-11-30

Jiang F, Zhang J, Gao H, et al (2019)

Musk deer (Moschus spp.) face redistribution to higher elevations and latitudes under climate change in China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(19)35327-6 [Epub ahead of print].

The population of wild musk deer (Moschus spp.) has declined in recent decades and reached an endangered status in China. Global climate change may drive the extinction rate of these species. To understand the implications of global warming on the future potential space utilization and migration direction of musk deer, both the maximum entropy model and barycenter migration analysis were utilized. Five global climate models and four representative concentration pathway scenarios were considered to simulate the distribution of six species for the years 2050 and 2070. The results indicated that the suitable habitat area would decrease over the next 30 to 50 years. These decreases of suitable habitat were more significant for the Siberian musk deer (reduced by 4.98% of the land area of China), the forest musk deer (1.04%), the black musk deer (0.86%), and the Himalayan musk deer (1.82%) compared with the other two musk deer species. The area with suitable climate for the Siberian musk deer will migrate to the southwest (to higher elevations) while areas suitable for the Alpine musk deer, the Himalayan musk deer, and the Anhui musk deer would all migrate to the northeast (to higher latitudes). However, the forest musk deer and the black musk deer will not migrate in the same direction, but will mainly migrate to the west and the north, respectively. These results provide data in support for in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation, natural reserve community, and bio-corridor construction of China's musk deer species in response to global warming.

RevDate: 2019-11-30

DeLisi C (2019)

Correction to: The role of synthetic biology in climate change mitigation.

Biology direct, 14(1):24 pii:10.1186/s13062-019-0254-9.

After publication of this article [1], the author brought to our attention that there are some errors in the article.

RevDate: 2019-11-29

Zhang Y, Ruckelshaus M, Arkema KK, et al (2019)

Synthetic vulnerability assessment to inform climate-change adaptation along an urbanized coast of Shenzhen, China.

Journal of environmental management, 255:109915 pii:S0301-4797(19)31633-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Coastal zones are increasingly threatened by stressors from both climate change and human activities. Vulnerability assessment is central to the implementation of interventions for adapting climate change. However, synthetic vulnerability based on an integrative analysis of ecosystem service and socioeconomic characteristics in urban coastal zones with tightly coupled human-nature interactions is not fully understood. Based on the Coastal Vulnerability model of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) tool, a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability to multiple hazards (sea level rise, waves and storm surge) was developed by integrating ecological, physical and socioeconomic factors into a single spatial representation and applied to the coast of Shenzhen, China. Based on the levels of biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of coastal communities, a three-dimensional decision matrix was proposed for planning location-specific interventions. Results show that approximately 15% of the coastline were categorized as having high vulnerability. Spatial vulnerability heterogeneity was found within and across the coastal districts, with Yantian grouped into the most vulnerable district. The biophysical exposure has greater influences on the overall vulnerability than either sensitivity or adaptive capacity. This study highlights the significance of complex interactions between natural ecosystems and socioeconomic conditions in driving vulnerability and suggests that combined natural-based defenses and socioeconomic factors contribute to lower vulnerability. The results can help decision-makers prioritize coastal zones for interventions and identifying adaptive strategies that target drivers of vulnerability.

RevDate: 2019-11-29

Siebert J, Ciobanu M, Schädler M, et al (2019)

Climate change and land use induce functional shifts in soil nematode communities.

Oecologia pii:10.1007/s00442-019-04560-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Land-use intensification represents one major threat to the diversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. In the face of concurrent climate change, concerns are growing about the ability of intensively managed agroecosystems to ensure stable food provisioning, as they may be particularly vulnerable to climate extreme-induced harvest losses and pest outbreaks. Extensively managed systems, in contrast, were shown to mitigate climate change based on plant diversity-mediated effects, such as higher functional redundancy or asynchrony of species. In this context, the maintenance of soils is essential to sustain key ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling, pest control, and crop yield. Within the highly diverse soil fauna, nematodes represent an important group as their trophic spectrum ranges from detritivores to predators and they allow inferences to the overall state of the ecosystem (bioindicators). Here, we investigated the effects of simulated climate change and land-use intensity on the diversity and abundance of soil nematode functional groups and functional indices in two consecutive years. We revealed that especially land use induced complex shifts in the nematode community with strong seasonal dynamics, while future climate led to weaker effects. Strikingly, the high nematode densities associated with altered climatic conditions and intensive land use were a consequence of increased densities of opportunists and potential pest species (i.e., plant feeders). This coincided with a less diverse and less structured community with presumably reduced capabilities to withstand environmental stress. These degraded soil food web conditions represent a potential threat to ecosystem functioning and underline the importance of management practices that preserve belowground organisms.

RevDate: 2019-11-29

Clairbaux M, Fort J, Mathewson P, et al (2019)

Climate change could overturn bird migration: Transarctic flights and high-latitude residency in a sea ice free Arctic.

Scientific reports, 9(1):17767 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-54228-5.

Climate models predict that by 2050 the Arctic Ocean will be sea ice free each summer. Removing this barrier between the Atlantic and the Pacific will modify a wide range of ecological processes, including bird migration. Using published information, we identified 29 arctic-breeding seabird species, which currently migrate in the North Atlantic and could shift to a transarctic migration towards the North Pacific. We also identified 24 arctic-breeding seabird species which may shift from a migratory strategy to high-arctic year-round residency. To illustrate the biogeographical consequences of such drastic migratory shifts, we performed an in-depth study of little auks (Alle alle), the most numerous artic seabird. Coupling species distribution models and climatic models, we assessed the adequacy of future wintering and breeding areas for transarctic migrants and high-arctic year-round residents. Further, we used a mechanistic bioenergetics model (Niche Mapper), to compare the energetic costs of current little auk migration in the North Atlantic with potential transarctic and high-arctic residency strategies. Surprisingly, our results indicate that transarctic little auk migration, from the North Atlantic towards the North Pacific, may only be half as costly, energetically, than high-arctic residency or migration to the North Atlantic. Our study illustrates how global warming may radically modify the biogeography of migratory species, and provides a general methodological framework linking migratory energetics and spatial ecology.

RevDate: 2019-11-29

He L, Jin N, Q Yu (2019)

Impacts of climate change and crop management practices on soybean phenology changes in China.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(19)35633-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Crop phenology is determined by both climatic factors and agronomic management practices such as sowing date and cultivar characteristics. Exploring the interactive effects of climate change and crop management practices on crop phenology can be used to devise adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change. The objectives of this study were to: 1) examined trends in soybean (Glycine max L.) phenological development in China from 1981 to 2010; 2) isolate and quantify impacts of climate change and crop management on changes in soybean phenology; 3) determine the relative contribution of climate change and crop management to observed changes in soybean phenology; and 4) determine the relative contribution of temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours to changes in soybean phenology. Changes in soybean phenology were observed across the major soybean producing area of eastern China during 1981-2010. Observed dates of sowing, emergence, anthesis, and maturity were delayed by an average of 1.78, 0.83, 0.19, and 0.62 days decade-1, respectively. Additionally, the lengths of the vegetative growth period and the soybean growing season were shortened by an average of 0.62 and 1.16 days decade-1, respectively. Conversely, the reproductive period was lengthened by an average of 0.43 days decade-1. Crop management practices had greater influence on sowing, emergence, and maturity dates than climate change. The direction of the changes to phenology trends created by management and climate change were opposite to each other. The relative influence of climate change on dates of anthesis, lengths of the vegetative and reproductive growth periods and growing season was larger than the influence of crop management practices. Mean temperature was the dominant climatic factor influencing most soybean phenological stages and phases. Delayed sowing dates and use of longer-duration cultivars are management adaptations that farmers have used to adapt to climate change occurring in past decades and that can continue to be used. These results indicate that farmers have a wider sowing window in spring and can select cultivars with long growing season duration and frost-tolerance to mitigate detrimental effects of a future warmer climate.

RevDate: 2019-11-29

Schlautman B, Diaz-Garcia L, S Barriball (2020)

Morphometric approaches to promote the use of exotic germplasm for improved food security and resilience to climate change: a kura clover example.

Plant science : an international journal of experimental plant biology, 290:110319.

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change and its associated ecological pressures will require new crops, novel trait combinations, and previously unknown phenotypic attributes to deploy in climate resilient cropping systems. Genebanks, a primary source of exotic germplasm for novel crops and breeding materials, need comprehensive methods to detect novel and unknown phenotypes without a priori information about the species or trait under consideration. We demonstrate how persistent homology (PH) and elliptical Fourier descriptors (EFD), two morphometric techniques easily applied to image-based data, can serve this purpose by cataloging leaf morphology in the USDA NPGS kura clover collection and demarcating a leaf morphospace for the species. Additionally, we identify a set of representative accessions spanning the leaf morphospace and propose they serve as a kura clover core collection. The core collection will be a framework for monitoring the effects of climate change on kura clover in situ diversity and determining the role of ex situ accessions in modern agriculture.

RevDate: 2019-11-28

Dance A (2019)

These corals could survive climate change - and help save the world's reefs.

Nature, 575(7784):580-582.

RevDate: 2019-11-28

Bender IMA, Kissling WD, Böhning-Gaese K, et al (2019)

Projected impacts of climate change on functional diversity of frugivorous birds along a tropical elevational gradient.

Scientific reports, 9(1):17708 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-53409-6.

Climate change forces many species to move their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations. Resulting immigration or emigration of species might lead to functional changes, e.g., in the trait distribution and composition of ecological assemblages. Here, we combined approaches from biogeography (species distribution models; SDMs) and community ecology (functional diversity) to investigate potential effects of climate-driven range changes on frugivorous bird assemblages along a 3000 m elevational gradient in the tropical Andes. We used SDMs to model current and projected future occurrence probabilities of frugivorous bird species from the lowlands to the tree line. SDM-derived probabilities of occurrence were combined with traits relevant for seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants to calculate functional dispersion (FDis; a measure of functional diversity) for current and future bird assemblages. Comparisons of FDis between current and projected future assemblages showed consistent results across four dispersal scenarios, five climate models and two representative concentration pathways. Projections indicated a decrease of FDis in the lowlands, an increase of FDis at lower mid-elevations and little changes at high elevations. This suggests that functional dispersion responds differently to global warming at different elevational levels, likely modifying avian seed dispersal functions and plant regeneration in forest ecosystems along tropical mountains.

RevDate: 2019-11-27

Galego de Oliveira A, Bailly D, Cassemiro FAS, et al (2019)

Coupling environment and physiology to predict effects of climate change on the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.

PloS one, 14(11):e0225128 pii:PONE-D-19-17811.

This study uses species distribution modeling and physiological and functional traits to predict the impacts of climate change on native freshwater fish in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We modelled future changes in taxonomic and functional diversity in 2050 and 2080 for two scenarios of carbon emissions, identifying areas of great interest for conservation. Climatic-environmental variables were used to model the range of 23 species of native fish under each scenario. The consensus model, followed by the physiological filter of lethal temperature was retained for interpretation. Our study predicts a severe negative impact of climate change on both taxonomic and functional components of ichthyofauna of the Murray-Darling Basin. There was a predicted marked contraction of species ranges under both scenarios. The predictions showed loss of climatically suitable areas, species and functional characters. There was a decrease in areas with high values of functional richness, dispersion and uniqueness. Some traits are predicted to be extirpated, especially in the most pessimistic scenario. The climatic refuges for fish fauna are predicted to be in the southern portion of the basin, in the upper Murray catchment. Incorporating future predictions about the distribution of ichthyofauna in conservation management planning will enhance resilience to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-27

El Yaacoubi A, El Jaouhari N, Bourioug M, et al (2019)

Potential vulnerability of Moroccan apple orchard to climate change-induced phenological perturbations: effects on yields and fruit quality.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-019-01821-y [Epub ahead of print].

Climatic factors are of a big importance for the determination of phenological stages of several fruit tree species, including apple, during the pre- and post-blooming periods causing their modifications and consequently affecting the fruit quality and productivity. This study aimed to identify the important dormancy phases (chilling and forcing periods) involved in determination of the flowering time in Gala apple trees in order to estimate temperature and chill/heat requirements, useful to assess the effect of climatic factors and phenological modifications on apple productivity and quality. Phenological and climatic data (temperatures, rainfall, irrigation, chilling and heat requirements) were collected, calculated, and measured from orchard in Imouzzer-Kandar, Morocco. Fruit productivity and quality parameters (total yield, fruit weight, size, firmness, and sweetness) were measured. Results showed a prolonged chilling period basing on the pre-blooming phases identified using partial least squares regression. Inadequate chill during warm seasons (insufficient chilling requirements) induces some phenological perturbations: late flowering, extended flowering duration, and period from flowering to harvesting. These phenological anomalies affect negatively the fruit quality of apple as a cause of inadequate climatic factors, mainly temperature and chilling requirements during the chilling period. Our findings demonstrated that sufficient chilling and heat requirements correlate positively with fruit weight, size, and firmness, although the low irrigation applied during the period from flowering to the harvesting times. In unfavorable conditions, total yield and fruit sweetness could be improved by supplementary irrigation during the same period. Practically, chilling requirements of 645-677 chill hours, 709-1157 chill units, and 43.4-55.2 chill portions according to 0-7 °C, Utah model, and Dynamic model respectively and heat requirements of 26,290-27,057 growing degree hours are sufficient for good fruit quality. These are equivalent to temperature of 9.3-9.9 °C during the chilling period and 11.1-12.5 °C during the forcing period. These findings are useful for eventual management measures in order to improve apple production in their cropping area. At long terms, we propose necessity of rearrangement of high-chill apple varieties by low-chill cultivars as a way of apple crop adaptation to climate variations.

RevDate: 2019-11-27

Branch O, V Wulfmeyer (2019)

Reply to Wang and D'Odorico: On the sustainability of large-scale desert plantations as a partial solution for climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1917753116 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-11-27

Costa S, Coppola F, Pretti C, et al (2019)

The influence of climate change related factors on the response of two clam species to diclofenac.

Ecotoxicology and environmental safety pii:S0147-6513(19)31230-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Diclofenac (DIC) is one of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) with higher consumption rates, used in both human and veterinary medicine. Previous studies already demonstrated the presence of this drug in aquatic environments and adverse effects towards inhabiting organisms. However, with the predictions of ocean acidification and warming, the impacts induced by DIC may differ from what is presently known and can be species-dependent. Thus, the present study aimed to comparatively assess the effects caused by DIC in the clams Ruditapes philippinarum and Ruditapes decussatus and evaluate if these impacts were influenced by pH and temperature. For this, organisms were acclimated for 30 days at two different temperature and pH (control conditions: pH 8.1, 17 °C; climate change forecasted scenario: pH 7.7, 20 °C) in the absence of drugs (experimental period I) followed by 7 days exposure under the same water physical parameters but in absence or presence of the pharmaceutical drug (at 1 μg/L, experimental period II). Biochemical responses covering metabolic capacity, oxidative stress and damage-related biomarkers were contrasted in clams at the end of the second experimental period. The results showed that under actual conditions, R. philippinarum individuals exposed to DIC presented enhanced antioxidant activities and reduced their respiration rate compared with non-contaminated clams. When exposed to the predicted climate change conditions, a similar response was observed in contaminated clams, but in this case clams increased their metabolic activities probably to fight the stress caused by the combination of both stressors. When R. decussatus was exposed to DIC, even at actual pH and temperature conditions, their antioxidant defences were also elevated but their baseline enzymatic activities were also naturally higher in respect to R. philippinarum. Although clams may use different strategies to prevent DIC damage, both clam species showed under low pH and high temperature limited oxidative stress impacts in line with a lower DIC bioaccumulation. The present findings reveal that predicted climate change related factors may not enhance the impacts of DIC in Ruditapes clams in a species-dependent manner although both displayed particular mechanisms to face stress.

RevDate: 2019-11-27

Ghazy NA, Gotoh T, T Suzuki (2019)

Impact of global warming scenarios on life-history traits of Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae).

BMC ecology, 19(1):48 pii:10.1186/s12898-019-0264-6.

BACKGROUND: The tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi Baker & Pritchard (Acari: Tetranychidae), is an agricultural pest of solanaceous crops. Although T. evansi is of South American subtropical origin, it has recently expanded its distribution range to many tropical and temperate areas around the world. Its potential distribution range in response to scenarios of global warming was recently modeled, confirming its current and possible future distributions. Here, we experimentally investigated the biological traits of T. evansi in the context of the current and future global warming (2100) scenarios. Using an environmental simulation system, we tested the life-history traits of T. evansi under current summer temperatures (as of June, July, and August 2016) and under expected temperature increases based on two IPCC scenarios: RCP2.6 (+ 1 °C) and RCP8.5 (+ 3.7 °C). The mites were introduced into each scenario on 1 June and their sequential progeny were used for testing in each following month.

RESULTS: The mite could develop and reproduce under all scenarios. There was a decrease in the duration of lifespan and female fecundity at RCP8.5 during June and August, but this may be compensated for by the high intrinsic rate of increase, which implies faster population growth and shorter generation time.

CONCLUSION: Our study and other reports reveal the high adaptability of T. evansi to a wide range of summer temperatures; this may explain its current distribution. We anticipate that global warming will favor the spread of T. evansi and may further expand its distribution to a large area of the globe. These findings should be of ecological and practical relevance for designing prevention and control strategies.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Bridgham SD, Pastor J, Dewey B, et al (2008)


Ecology, 89(11):3041-3048.

Peatlands comprise a globally important carbon pool whose input-output budgets may be significantly altered by climate change. To experimentally determine the sensitivity of the carbon stored in peatlands to climate change, we constructed a mesocosm facility with 54 peat monoliths from a bog and fen in northern Minnesota, USA. These mesocosms were subjected to nine combinations of heat and water-table levels over eight years. Bog mesocosms initially accumulated soil carbon, with greater gains in wetter mesocosms, but after three years no further water-table effects occurred. In contrast, fen mesocosms lost or had no change in soil carbon, with the greatest losses in drier and warmer mesocosms. Changes in soil-carbon storage resulted in concomitant changes in water-table depth, so that water-table depths were similar to those in the natural source sites by the end of the experiment regardless of the initial treatment. These results were primarily due to water-table effects on Sphagnum moss production in the bog mesocosms and to a more complicated suite of warming and water-table effects on production and decomposition in the fen mesocosms. We show that different kinds of peatlands will rapidly gain or lose carbon following hydrological disturbance until they return to their characteristic ("equilibrium") water-table levels. Our results illustrate the potential for a rapid homeostatic response of these ecosystems to future climate change at small spatial scales. Climate change will likely also interact with other carbon cycle-hydrological feedbacks at the scale of the entire peatland over longer time frames and larger spatial scales.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Poloczanska ES, Hawkins SJ, Southward AJ, et al (2008)


Ecology, 89(11):3138-3149.

Biotic interactions will modulate species' responses to climate change. Many approaches to predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity so far have been based purely on a climate envelope approach and have not considered direct and indirect species interactions. Using a long-term observational data set (>30 years) of competing intertidal barnacle species, we built a hierarchy of age-structured two-taxa population models (Semibalanus balanoides vs. Chthamalus montagui and C. stellatus combined as one taxon) to test if the presence of a dominant competitor can mediate climatic influence on the subordinate species. Models were parameterized using data from populations on the south coast of southwest England and verified by hindcasting using independent north coast population data. Recruitment of the dominant competitor, S. balanoides, is driven by temperature. The mechanisms of competition explored included simple space preemption and temperature-driven interference competition. The results indicate that interspecific competition between juvenile barnacles is important in regulating chthamalid density but not that of the dominant competitor S. balanoides. Simulations were carried out using alternative future climate scenarios to predict barnacle population abundance over the next century. Under all emission scenarios, the cold-water S. balanoides is predicted to virtually disappear from southwest England by the 2050s, leading to the competitive release of Chthamalus throughout the entire region and thereby substantially increasing its abundance and occupied habitat (by increasing vertical range on the shore). Our results demonstrate that climate change can profoundly affect the abundance and distribution of species through both the direct effects of temperature on survival, and also by altering important negative interactions through shifting competitive balances and essentially removing dominant competitors or predators. Climate change impacts on organisms are unlikely to lead only to straightforward, easily predictable changes in population size and distribution. The complex, indirect effects of climate change need to be taken into account if we are to accurately forecast the long-term effects of global warming.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Sperry JS, Venturas MD, Todd HN, et al (2019)

The impact of rising CO2 and acclimation on the response of US forests to global warming.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America pii:1913072116 [Epub ahead of print].

The response of forests to climate change depends in part on whether the photosynthetic benefit from increased atmospheric CO2 (∆Ca = future minus historic CO2) compensates for increased physiological stresses from higher temperature (∆T). We predicted the outcome of these competing responses by using optimization theory and a mechanistic model of tree water transport and photosynthesis. We simulated current and future productivity, stress, and mortality in mature monospecific stands with soil, species, and climate sampled from 20 continental US locations. We modeled stands with and without acclimation to ∆Ca and ∆T, where acclimated forests adjusted leaf area, photosynthetic capacity, and stand density to maximize productivity while avoiding stress. Without acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in net primary productivity (NPP) was compromised by ∆T-driven stress and mortality associated with vascular failure. With acclimation, the ∆Ca-driven boost in NPP and stand biomass (C storage) was accentuated for cooler futures but negated for warmer futures by a ∆T-driven reduction in NPP and biomass. Thus, hotter futures reduced forest biomass through either mortality or acclimation. Forest outcomes depended on whether projected climatic ∆Ca/∆T ratios were above or below physiological thresholds that neutralized the negative impacts of warming. Critically, if forests do not acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must be above ca 89 ppm⋅°C-1 to avoid chronic stress, a threshold met by 55% of climate projections. If forests do acclimate, the ∆Ca/∆T must rise above ca 67 ppm⋅°C-1 for NPP and biomass to increase, a lower threshold met by 71% of projections.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Rivadeneira Vera JF, Zambrano Mera YE, MÁ Pérez-Martín (2019)

Adapting water resources systems to climate change in tropical areas: Ecuadorian coast.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(19)35549-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is expected to increase rainfall and temperature in the tropical areas of the Ecuadorian coast. The increase in temperature will also increase evapotranspiration therefore, future water balance on Ecuadorian coast will have a slight variation. Changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration will produce an increase in the water requirements for current crops, so an imbalance in the water resources systems between natural resources and water demands is expected. This study presents water resources management as an adaptation measure to climate change for reducing vulnerability in tropical areas. Twelve bias-corrected climate projections are used, from: two AR5 General Circulation Models (GCMs), two Representative Concentration Pathways, 4.5-8.5 scenarios, and three time periods, short-term (2010-2039), medium-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). These data were incorporated into the Lumped Témez Hydrological Model. Climate change scenarios predict for the long-term period both a mean rainfall and temperature increases up to 22%-2.8 °C, respectively. Besides, the potential evapotranspiration will increase until 12% by Penman-Monteith method and 60% by Thornthwaite method. Therefore, natural water resources will finally have an increase of 19% [8-30%]. Additionally, water requirements for crops will increase around 4% and 45%. As this research shows, in tropical regions, currently viable water resources systems could become unsustainable under climate change scenarios. To guarantee the water supply in the future additional measures are required as reservoir operation rules and irrigation efficiency improvement of system from 0.43 to 0.65, which it involves improving the distribution and application system. In study area future irrigation areas have been estimated for 13,268 ha, which under climate change scenarios is unsustainable, only 11,500 ha could be expanded with a very high irrigation efficiency of 0.73. Therefore, in tropical areas the effect of climate change on expansion projects for irrigated areas should be considered to ensure the functioning systems.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Li M, Wiedmann TO, M Hadjikakou (2019)

Enabling full supply chain corporate responsibility: Scope 3 emissions targets for ambitious climate change mitigation.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

There is building consensus that non-state actors have the potential to drive more ambitious action towards climate targets than governments, thus driving the necessary transition to ensure that humanity remains within a safe operating space. These bottom-up mitigation activities, however, require individual targets on both direct and indirect (upstream) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to reconcile trade-offs between global and local sustainability goals. Here we use a scenario-driven approach based on a global multi-regional input-output (GMRIO) model to develop scope 3 emission reduction targets for individual economic sectors, comparable across countries and geographies. Under an ambitious carbon mitigation scenario for 2035 (that follows a trajectory of 1.75°C total warming by 2100), global upstream scope 3 emission intensities need to be reduced by an additional 54% compared to a baseline scenario with reference technology. On a sectoral basis, this is equivalent to a 58-67% reduction in energy, transport and materials, a 50-52% reduction in manufacturing, services and buildings and a 39% reduction in agriculture, forestry and other land use. By aligning indirect supply chain targets with ambitious carbon mitigation scenarios, our approach can be used by non-state actors to set actionable scope 3 targets and to build climate-compatible business models.

RevDate: 2019-11-25

Adzawla W, Azumah SB, Anani PY, et al (2019)

Gender perspectives of climate change adaptation in two selected districts of Ghana.

Heliyon, 5(11):e02854 pii:e02854.

This study analyzed gender differences in climate adaptation by farming households in Ghana. This involved 300 farmers from two districts of Ghana and the data analyzed using descriptive statistics. The results showed severer climate impacts on the livelihoods of females than males in Ghana. On the contrary, the adaptive capacity of males was found to be higher than that of females. This was supported by the observed differences in gender climate adaptation where both male heads and male household members had higher mean climate adaptations than both female heads and female household members. Overall, the climate adaptation strategies mostly adopted by both males and females include changing planting dates, row planting, planting early maturing and drought tolerant seed varieties, mixed farming, intercropping and refiling of farm plots. Except for zero tillage and intercropping, male farmers had high adoption levels than female farmers. It is concluded that the observed gender adaptation differences were due to the levels and intensity of adoption other than differences in the type of strategies adopted by the different gender groups. The Ministry of Food and Agriculture should consider integrating climate adaptation policies into current agricultural policies such as "planting for food and jobs" policy.

RevDate: 2019-11-25

Dagan G, Stier P, D Watson-Parris (2019)

Analysis of the Atmospheric Water Budget for Elucidating the Spatial Scale of Precipitation Changes Under Climate Change.

Geophysical research letters, 46(17-18):10504-10511.

Global mean precipitation changes due to climate change were previously shown to be relatively small and well constrained by the energy budget. However, local precipitation changes can be much more significant. In this paper we propose that for large enough scales, for which the water budget is closed (precipitation [P] roughly equals evaporation [E]), changes in P approach the small global mean value. However, for smaller scales, for which P and E are not necessarily equal and convergence of water vapor still plays a role, changes in P could be much larger due to dynamical contributions. Using 40 years of two reanalysis data sets, 39 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and additional numerical simulations, we identify the scale of transition in the importance of the different terms in the water budget to precipitation to be ~3,500-4,000 km and demonstrate its relation to the spatial scale of precipitation changes under climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-24

Brady JM (2019)

Global Climate Change and Human Health.

Journal of perianesthesia nursing : official journal of the American Society of PeriAnesthesia Nurses pii:S1089-9472(19)30324-7 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2019-11-24

Liu M, Xu X, Jiang Y, et al (2019)

Responses of crop growth and water productivity to climate change and agricultural water-saving in arid region.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(19)34612-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and associated elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration and rising temperature have become a great challenge to agricultural production especially in arid and semiarid regions, and a great concern to scientists worldwide. Thus, it is very important to assess the response of crop growth and water productivity to climate change projections, which in turn can help devise adaptive strategies to mitigate their impact. An agro-hydrological model with well consideration of CO2 effects on both the stomatal conductance and leaf area was established. The model was well calibrated and validated using the data collected from the middle oasis of Heihe River basin, northwest China, which was selected as a typical arid region. Simulations of soil water contents and crop growth matched well with observations. Then various scenarios were designed with considering three climate change alternatives (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three agricultural water-saving alternatives in the context of irrigation water availability being constant. Responses of crop growth and water productivity were predicted for thirty years from 2018 to 2047. As compared to current situation, there would be a reduction of 3.4-8.6% in crop yield during the period of 2018-2027 and an increase of 1.5-18.7% in crop yield during the period of 2028-2047 for seed corn, and an increase of 7.4-26.7% in crop yield during the period of 2018-2047 for spring wheat, respectively. Moreover, results showed an increase in water productivity ranged from 14.3% to 44.5% for seed corn and from 34.7% to 52.0% for spring wheat, respectively. Furthermore, adaptive strategies to climate change were recommended for the seed corn and spring wheat, respectively. Our results are expected to provide implications for devising adaptive strategies to changing environments in other arid and irrigation-fed areas.

RevDate: 2019-11-23

Vilela P, Jácome G, Kim SY, et al (2019)

Population response modeling and habitat suitability of Cobitis choii fish species in South Korea for climate change adaptation.

Ecotoxicology and environmental safety pii:S0147-6513(19)31280-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Endangered species ecosystems require appropriate monitoring for assessing population growth related to the emerging pollutants in their habitat conditions. The response of population growth of Cobitis choii, an endangered fish species, under the exposure to emerging pollutants present in the Geum River Basin of South Korea was studied. Toxicity models of concentration addition (CA), independent action (IA), and concentration addition-independent action (CAIA) were implemented utilizing the concentration of a set of 25 chemicals recorded in the study area. Thus, a population-level response analysis was developed based on the abundance of Cobitis choii for period 2011-2015. The results were compared showing that the CA and IA models were the most conservative approaches for the prediction of growth rate. Further, a standard abnormality index (SAI) and habitat suitability (HS) indicators based on the climate, habitat, and abundance data were presented to completely analyze the population growth of the species. Suitability of the species growth was most probable for year 2015 for the variables of air temperature and land surface temperature. A spatial analysis was complementarily presented to visualize the correlation of variables for the best suitability of the species growth. This study presents a methodology for the analysis of the ecosystem's suitability for Cobitis choii growth and its assessment of the chemicals present in Geum River stream.

RevDate: 2019-11-23

Abdullah ASM, Dalal K, Halim A, et al (2019)

Effects of Climate Change and Maternal Morality: Perspective from Case Studies in the Rural Area of Bangladesh.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(23): pii:ijerph16234594.

This study explored the community perception of maternal deaths influenced by natural disaster (flood), and the practice of maternal complications during natural disaster among the rural population in Bangladesh. It also explored the challenges faced by the community for providing healthcare and referring the pregnant women experiencing complications during flood disaster. Three focus group discussions (FGDs) and eight in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted in the marginalized rural communities in the flood-prone Khaliajhuri sub-district, Netrakona district, Bangladesh. Flood is one of the major risk factors for influencing maternal death. Pregnant women seriously suffer from maternal complications, lack of antenatal checkup, and lack of doctors during flooding. During the time of delivery, it is difficult to find a skilled attendant, and referring the patient with delivery complications to the healthcare facility. Boats are the only mode of transport. The majority of maternal deaths occur on the boats during transfer from the community to the hospital. Rural people feel that the maternal deaths influenced by natural disaster are natural phenomena. Pre-preparation is needed to support pregnant women during disasters. There is unawareness of maternal health, related care, and complications during disasters among local health service providers and volunteers.

RevDate: 2019-11-25
CmpDate: 2019-11-25

Young D, Zégre N, Edwards P, et al (2019)

Assessing streamflow sensitivity of forested headwater catchments to disturbance and climate change in the central Appalachian Mountains region, USA.

The Science of the total environment, 694:133382.

Forest headwater catchments are critical sources of water, but climate change and disturbance may threaten their ability to produce reliable and abundant water supplies. Quantifying how climate change and forest disturbances individually and interactively alter streamflow provides important insights into the stability and availability of water derived from headwater catchments that are particularly sensitive to change. We used long-term water balance data, forest inventory measurements, and a multiple-methods approach using Budyko decomposition and paired catchment models to assess how climate change and forest disturbances interact to alter streamflow in five headwater catchments located along a disturbance gradient in the Appalachian Mountains, USA. We found that disturbance was the dominant driver of streamflow changes; disturbed catchments were more sensitive to climate change than the undisturbed catchment; and disturbance was an important factor for a catchment's sensitivity to climate change, principally through changes in species composition and xylem anatomy. Streamflow sensitivity to climate change increased with increasing proportion of diffuse porous species, suggesting that not all disturbances are equal when it comes to streamflow sensitivity to climate change. Climate change effects were masked by disturbance in catchments with high magnitude/low frequency disturbances and amplified in a catchment with low magnitude/high frequency disturbance. Furthermore, critical assumptions of Budyko decomposition were assessed to evaluate the efficacy of applying decomposition to the headwater scale. Our study demonstrates the efficacy and usefulness of applying decomposition to scales potentially useful to resource managers and decision makers. Our study contributes to a more thorough understanding about the impacts of climate change on disturbed headwater catchments that will help managers to better prepare for and adapt to future changes.

RevDate: 2019-11-22

Nuttall C, F Yaqub (2019)

A call for action: understanding medicine's role in climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Alexander M, Alexander J, Arora M, et al (2019)

A bellweather for climate change and disability: educational needs of rehabilitation professionals regarding disaster management and spinal cord injuries.

Spinal cord series and cases, 5:94.

Study design: Cross-sectional survey.

Objective: Persons with disabilities are disproportionately impacted by extreme weather disasters and climate change. Individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) are especially at risk due to inability to control their body temperature and mobility concerns. We surveyed rehabilitation professionals in the field of SCI to determine their experiences, concerns and educational needs regarding natural disasters, climate change and sustainability and the effects on their clientele.

Setting: Online survey available to an international cohort.

Methods: The survey was developed by the authors and conducted in 2019. It was distributed amongst various international health care organizations whose members care for persons with SCI. Descriptive statistics and chi-square test for association were performed using Microsoft Excel 2016.

Results: Of 125 respondents, 50% were from Europe, 18% from North America, and 18% from Asia; 74% were physicians and 13% physical therapists. In total 57.6% believed climate change had impacted their client's health and well-being. Respondents from North America were significantly less likely to report climate change had an impact on their patient's health than those from Asia or Europe (p < 0.01). In total 82.5% of respondents thought professionals should be concerned with sustainability and 85.5% were interested in further education.

Conclusions: Most respondents acknowledged a need for more information related to the disasters, climate change, and disability. Results underscore the need for further research, professional, and consumer education.

RevDate: 2019-11-22

Townhill BL, Hills J, Murray PA, et al (2019)

Communicating marine climate change impacts in the Caribbean and Pacific regions.

Marine pollution bulletin pii:S0025-326X(19)30865-3 [Epub ahead of print].

The scientific literature on marine and coastal climate change has proliferated in recent decades. Translating and communicating this evidence in a timely, and accessible manner, is critical to support adaptation, but little is being done to summarise the latest science for decision makers. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are highly vulnerable to marine and coastal climate change impacts, there is an urgent need to make the latest science readily available to inform national policy, leverage climate funding and highlight their vulnerability for international reports and climate negotiations. Climate change report cards are a proven successful way of presenting climate change information in an easily accessible and informative manner. Here we compare the development of marine climate change report cards for Caribbean and Pacific Commonwealth SIDS as a means of translating the latest science for decision makers. Regional engagement, priority issues and lessons learnt in these regions are compared, and future opportunities identified.

RevDate: 2019-11-22

Hoque MZ, Cui S, Xu L, et al (2019)

Assessing Agricultural Livelihood Vulnerability to Climate Change in Coastal Bangladesh.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(22): pii:ijerph16224552.

The adverse impacts of climate change exert mounting pressure on agriculture-dependent livelihoods of many developing and developed nations. However, integrated and spatially specific vulnerability assessments in less-developed countries like Bangladesh are rare, and insufficient to support the decision-making needed for climate-change resilience. Here, we develop an agricultural livelihood vulnerability index (ALVI) and an integrated approach, allowing for (i) mapping out the hot spots of vulnerability distribution; (ii) identifying key factors of spatially heterogeneous vulnerability; and (iii) supporting intervention planning for adaptation. This study conceptualized vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity by developing a composite index from a reliable dataset of 64 indicators comprising biophysical, agro-ecological, and socioeconomic variables. The empirical studies of coastal Bangladesh revealed that Bhola, Patuakhali, and Lakshmipur districts, around the mouth of the deltaic Meghna estuaries, are the hot spot of vulnerability distribution. Furthermore, the spatially heterogeneous vulnerability was triggered by spatial variation of erosion, cyclones, drought, rain-fed agriculture, land degradation, soil phosphorus, crop productivity, sanitation and housing condition, infant mortality, emergency shelters, adoption of agro-technology. The integrated approach could be useful for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation intervention by substituting various hypothetical scenarios into the ALVI framework for baseline comparison.

RevDate: 2019-11-21

Pozio E (2019)

How globalization and climate change could affect foodborne parasites.

Experimental parasitology pii:S0014-4894(19)30375-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Foodborne parasites, most of which are zoonotic, represent an important human health hazard. These pathogens which include both protozoa (e.g., Cryptosporidium spp., Cyclospora cayetanensis, Toxoplasma gondii) and helminths (e.g., liver and intestinal flukes, Fasciola spp., Paragonimus spp., Echinococcus spp., Taenia spp., Angiostrongylus spp., Anisakis spp., Ascaris spp., Capillaria spp., Toxocara spp., Trichinella spp., Trichostrongylus spp.), have accompanied the human species since its origin and their spread has often increased due to their behavior. Since both domesticated and wild animals play an important role as reservoirs of these pathogens the increase/decrease of their biomasses, migration, and passive introduction by humans can change their epidemiological patterns. It follows that globalization and climate change will have a tremendous impact on these pathogens modifying their epidemiological patterns and ecosystems due to the changes of biotic and abiotic parameters. The consequences of these changes on foodborne parasites cannot be foreseen as a whole due to their complexity, but it is important that biologists, epidemiologists, physicians and veterinarians evaluate/address the problem within a one health approach. This opinion, based on the author's experience of over 40 years in the parasitology field, takes into consideration the direct and indirect effects on the transmission of foodborne parasites to humans.

RevDate: 2019-11-25

Wang Y, Ma Q, Li Y, et al (2019)

Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions and Global Warming Potential of Wolfberry Production in Jingtai Oasis, Gansu Province, China.

Environmental management, 64(6):772-782.

During the last decade, China's agro-food production has increased rapidly and been accompanied by the challenge of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental pollutants from fertilizers, pesticides, and intensive energy use. Understanding the energy use and environmental impacts of crop production will help identify environmentally damaging hotspots of agro-production, allowing environmental impacts to be assessed and crop management strategies optimized. Conventional farming has been widely employed in wolfberry (Lycium barbarum) cultivation in China, which is an important cash tree crop not only for the rural economy but also from an ecological standpoint. Energy use and global warming potential (GWP) were investigated in a wolfberry production system in the Yellow River irrigated Jingtai region of Gansu. In total, 52 household farms were randomly selected to conduct the investigation using questionnaires. Total energy input and output were 321,800.73 and 166,888.80 MJ ha-1, respectively, in the production system. The highest share of energy inputs was found to be electricity consumption for lifting irrigation water, accounting for 68.52%, followed by chemical fertilizer application (11.37%). Energy use efficiency was 0.52 when considering both fruit and pruned wood. Nonrenewable energy use (88.52%) was far larger than the renewable energy input. The share of GWP of different inputs were 64.52% electricity, 27.72% nitrogen (N) fertilizer, 5.07% phosphate, 2.32% diesel, and 0.37% potassium, respectively. The highest share was related to electricity consumption for irrigation, followed by N fertilizer use. Total GWP in the wolfberry planting system was 26,018.64 kg CO2 eq ha-1 and the share of CO2, N2O, and CH4 were 99.47%, 0.48%, and negligible respectively with CO2 being dominant. Pathways for reducing energy use and GHG emission mitigation include: conversion to low carbon farming to establish a sustainable and cleaner production system with options of raising water use efficiency by adopting a seasonal gradient water pricing system and advanced irrigation techniques; reducing synthetic fertilizer use; and policy support: smallholder farmland transfer (concentration) for scale production, credit (small- and low-interest credit) and tax breaks.

RevDate: 2019-11-21

Merganičová K, Merganič J, Lehtonen A, et al (2019)

Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change.

Tree physiology pii:5622724 [Epub ahead of print].

Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is currently implemented in 31 contrasting models to identify the main gaps compared to our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. A hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in the examined models, while physiologically more sophisticated approaches were used less often than empirical ones. The analysis revealed that although the number of carbon allocation studies over the last 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood, and some issues in models are frequently poorly represented, oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are: (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilisation of non-structural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge of carbon allocation into defence, regeneration, and improved resource uptake in order to better account for changing environmental conditions.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Bai X, Shen W, Wu X, et al (2019)

Applicability of long-term satellite-based precipitation products for drought indices considering global warming.

Journal of environmental management, 255:109846 pii:S0301-4797(19)31564-6 [Epub ahead of print].

This study evaluates the applicability of using long-term satellite rainfall estimate (SRE) precipitation products in drought monitoring over mainland China under global warming conditions. Two widely used drought indices, the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were selected as study cases; both indices consider global warming but based on different mechanisms. Two popular long-term SREs were selected to calculate the indices: the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using the Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS). A ground-based gridded observation dataset known as the China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP) was used as a reference for the evaluation. Research results showed that on a grid cell scale, the SPEI based on both SREs was consistent with observations in eastern China (correlation coefficient over 0.9), while the scPDSI was much less accurate (correlation coefficient of only 0.5) and its accuracy patterns were highly spatially heterogeneous. However, on a regional scale, after spatial errors were offset by spatial averaging, the performance of the SRE-based scPDSI improved, and it showed the same ability as the SPEI in temporally detecting the timing, intensity, and magnitude of drought. The self-calibrating procedure of the scPDSI was determined as the most probable cause of its poorer performance and high heterogeneity, which would increase instability and enlarge the uncertainty of the SREs. It is thus considered that the SPEI should be the first choice for use in monitoring global-warming related drought, primarily because of the high uncertainty and instability of the scPDSI.

RevDate: 2019-11-20

Fang Y, Scott D, R Steiger (2019)

The impact of climate change on ski resorts in China.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-019-01822-x [Epub ahead of print].

Although ski tourism in China is experiencing a boom, and the number of operating ski areas has significantly increased, the influence of climate change on the future development of China's ski industry has so far largely been overlooked. This paper addresses this important gap by applying the ski season simulation model SkiSim 2.0 at 116 ski areas. Four main indicators of climate change impact were examined: ski season length, operational ski days in economically important season segments, technically produced snow and snowmaking requirements. For all ski resorts in China and all climate change scenarios, average ski seasons are projected to shorten (- 4 to - 61% RCP 4.5; - 6 to - 79% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s) while snowmaking needs increase (27 to 51% RCP 4.5; 46 to 80% RCP 8.5 in the 2050s). The results indicate that high regional differences in climate change vulnerability exist. The implications for altered competitiveness and development potential of the ski industry in China are discussed.

RevDate: 2019-11-22

Muzerengi T, HM Tirivangasi (2019)

Small grain production as an adaptive strategy to climate change in Mangwe District, Matabeleland South in Zimbabwe.

Jamba (Potchefstroom, South Africa), 11(1):652.

This article assesses the feasibility of small grains as an adaptive strategy to climate change in the Mangwe District in Zimbabwe. The change in climate has drastically affected rainfall patterns across the globe and in Zimbabwe in particular. Continuous prevalence of droughts in Zimbabwe, coupled with other economic calamities facing the Southern African country, has contributed to a larger extent to the reduction in grain production among communal farmers, most of whom are in semi-arid areas. This has caused a sudden increase in food shortages, particularly in the Mangwe District, as a result of erratic rainfall, which has negatively affected subsistence farming. This article was deeply rooted in qualitative research methodologies. Purposive sampling was used to sample the population. The researchers used key informant interviews, focus group discussions and secondary data to collect data. Data were analysed using INVIVO software, a data analysis tool that brings out themes. The results of the study are presented in the form of themes. The study established that small grains contributed significantly to addressing food shortages in the Mangwe District. The study results revealed that small grains were a reliable adaptive strategy to climate change as they increased food availability, accessibility, utilisation and stability. Despite the significant contribution of small grains to addressing food shortages, there is a need for the government to come up with a vibrant small grains policy, and government support that is visible as well as market creation for small grains. The study further recommends that small grains in semi-arid areas can be a panacea to food insecurity in Zimbabwe.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Gómez-Ruiz EP, TE Lacher (Jr) (2019)

Author Correction: Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex.

Scientific reports, 9(1):17503 pii:10.1038/s41598-019-53670-9.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

RevDate: 2019-11-20

Chen Y, Liu A, X Cheng (2019)

Quantifying economic impacts of climate change under nine future emission scenarios within CMIP6.

The Science of the total environment pii:S0048-9697(19)34942-3 [Epub ahead of print].

The concept of "environmental determinism" suggests that climate conditions played a substantial role in shaping modern society. To minimize the social costs of future climate change and to promote economic development through identification of cost-effective adaptation strategies and mitigation policies, quantitative assessments are needed for obtaining a better understanding of the causal impacts of climate change on human society. In this work, we estimate the economic impacts of climate change during the 21st century under nine CMIP6 scenarios, using the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model driven by the latest anthropogenic emission and socio-economic projections. Our results show that the largest climate change damages occur under the SSP3-7.0 scenario (involving regional rivalry and high anthropogenic emissions), followed by the SSP3-LowNTCF scenario (which considers significantly reduced NTCF emissions), and that climate change damage costs are expected to grow much faster than global GDP (reaching ~47% of global GDP in 2100). Gaps in adaptation resulting from regional inequalities would lead to higher climate change damages in poorer and warmer regions such as Africa and the Middle East. The outcomes obtained under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, in which the warming limit targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C set forth in the Paris Agreement are considered, respectively, reveal that aggressive mitigation strategies pass a cost-benefit analysis and could significantly reduce the economic impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Schumm MP (2019)

Digest: Will invaders adapt to climate change?.

One hypothesis for invasive species' success is that they show high potential to evolve in response to environmental change. Logan et al. evaluate this hypothesis in the invasive harlequin ladybeetle (Harmonia axyridis), using a breeding experiment to determine the genetic architecture of traits underlying thermal tolerance. Lack of heritable variation in some of these traits, and genetic correlations leading to trade-offs in others, suggest this species has limited potential to evolve in response to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-21

Chang L, Xu J, Tie X, et al (2019)

The impact of Climate Change on the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the related ozone pollution in Shanghai, China.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16998.

Severe ozone (O3) episodes occur frequently in Shanghai during late-summers. We define geopotential height averaged over the key area region (122.5°E-135°E, 27.5°N -35°N) at 500 hPa as a WPSH_SHO3 index which has high positive correlation with surface O3 concentration in Shanghai. In addition, the index has a significant long-term increasing trend during the recent 60 years. Analysis shows the meteorological conditions under the strong WPSH_SHO3 climate background (compared to the weak background) have several important anomalies: (1) A strong WPSH center occurs over the key area region. (2) The cloud cover is less, resulting in high solar radiation and low humidity, enhancing the photochemical reactions of O3. (3) The near-surface southwesterly winds are more frequent, enhancing the transport of upwind pollutants and O3 precursors from polluted regions to Shanghai and producing higher O3 chemical productions. This study suggests that the global climate change could lead to a stronger WPSH in the key region, enhancing ozone pollution in Shanghai. A global chemical/transport model (MOZART-4) is applied to show that the O3 concentrations can be 30 ppbv higher under a strong WPSH_SHO3 condition than a weak condition, indicating the important effect of the global climate change on local air pollution in Shanghai.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Salvador C, Nieto R, Linares C, et al (2019)

Effects of droughts on health: Diagnosis, repercussion, and adaptation in vulnerable regions under climate change. Challenges for future research.

The Science of the total environment, 703:134912 pii:S0048-9697(19)34904-6 [Epub ahead of print].

There is little doubt about the effects of drought events on human health in the present climate. Projections of climate change indicate an increase in the occurrence and severity of droughts in the 21st century in a number of regions, thus it is likely that these types of hydrological extremes could have more of an impact if appropriate adaptation measures are not taken. The majority of studies on the effects of drought are focused on meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological contexts, but there are rather fewer assessments of the impacts of droughts on health. In particular, there have been hardly any attempts to compare different drought indices in order to identify and quantify the impacts of drought on health systems. In addition, rather better knowledge is needed on the mechanisms of vulnerability involved. In this paper, we attempt to describe the complexity of drought phenomena and the difficulty involved in quantifying the health risks linked to their occurrence. From an international perspective, we provide a brief review of the harmful effects of droughts on health in the context of climate change, as well as the vulnerability factors related to droughts. We make an assessment of aspects that have not yet been investigated, or which require further attention to be devoted to this topic. The principal aim of this paper is therefore to draw attention to the need to consider closely the relationship between drought indices and human health, in order to achieve a more fundamental understanding, and to propose specific courses or lines of action for future years, which could eventually be of use to healthcare providers and services.

RevDate: 2019-11-18

Wang X, N Stanisavljevic (2019)

Can waste management be hailed as a climate change mitigation leader?.

Waste management & research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA, 37(12):1181-1182.

RevDate: 2019-11-18

Guerrero APS, Fung D, Suaalii-Sauni T, et al (2019)

An update to "Care for the seafarers: A review of mental health in Austronesia," with specific recommendation to address climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Hassani A, Azapagic A, D'Odorico P, et al (2019)

Desiccation crisis of saline lakes: A new decision-support framework for building resilience to climate change.

The Science of the total environment, 703:134718 pii:S0048-9697(19)34709-6 [Epub ahead of print].

River flow reductions as a result of agricultural withdrawals and climate change are rapidly desiccating endorheic lakes, increasing their salinity and affecting the bio-diversity and human wellbeing in the surrounding areas. Here we present a new framework to guide eco-hydrological restoration of saline lakes and build their resilience to climate change by optimizing agricultural land use and related water withdrawals. The framework involves four steps: 1. selection of global circulation models for the basin under study; 2. establishment of a hydrological balance over the lake's area to estimate the amount of water required for its restoration; 3. water allocation modeling to determine the water available for restoration and allocation of the remaining water across different users in the lake's basin; and 4. basin-scale optimization of land use and cropping patterns subject to water availability. We illustrated the general applicability of the framework through the case of the second largest (by volume) hyper-saline lake globally, Lake Urmia, which lost 96% of its volume in only 20 years, primarily as a result of upstream water withdrawals. Through the application of the framework, we estimated the amount of water needed to restore the lake, either fully or partially, and proposed a sustainable land-use strategy, while protect farmers' income in the basin. Considering future climate change projections under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, we found that an average annual surface inflow of 3,648 Mm3 (∼70% increase in RCP 4.5) and 3,692 Mm3 (∼73% increase in RCP 8.5) would be required to restore the lake by 2050, respectively. This would require the respective conversion of 95,600 ha and 133,687 ha of irrigated land to rain-fed cropland or grassland across the basin by 2050. The proposed framework can be used for building resilience to climate change and mitigating human-induced threats to other declining saline lakes.

RevDate: 2019-11-20

Ouyang W, Wan X, Xu Y, et al (2019)

Vertical difference of climate change impacts on vegetation at temporal-spatial scales in the upper stream of the Mekong River Basin.

The Science of the total environment, 701:134782 pii:S0048-9697(19)34773-4 [Epub ahead of print].

As the upper section of the Mekong River Basin, the vegetation quality of the Lancang River Basin (LRB) and the related ecological functions are critical for the whole basin. With time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images from 2000 to 2015 and local daily climatic data since 1976, their vertical interaction differences were identified. The results showed that the spatial variation in Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of grassland and forest were sensitive to elevation. The NDVI value in the southern area at elevations less than 3000 m was more than 0.80 and decreased to 0.30-0.60 with elevations higher than 4500 m. The general vegetation quality showed a positive trend under climate change over 16 years. The M-K test of daily precipitation and temperature from 12 local weather stations showed that the basin temperature varied more significantly than precipitation. The temporal correlation between NDVI with precipitation as well as temperature at each pixel indicated that temperature was the dominant factor affecting grassland and forest dynamics in the LRB. The interaction between vegetation and climate was more sensitive at elevations lower than 3000 m. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the future temperature distribution was predicted, and its impact on NDVI was simulated at the pixel scale. Under future drier and warmer climate conditions, the responded NDVI in the upper stream with higher elevation may increase soil erosion and decrease streamflow. The NDVI in the downstream area will be improved and be able to adapt to the related climate impacts. Because of the large amount of water and biomass in this basin, higher temperatures will accelerate the decomposition of forest foliar litter. Thus, more organic carbon and forest diffuse pollution will be discharged into the water, potentially affecting the water quality of the whole basin.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, et al (2019)

The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate.

Lancet (London, England), 394(10211):1836-1878.

RevDate: 2019-11-25

The Lancet (2019)

Health and climate change: making the link matter.

Lancet (London, England), 394(10211):1780.

RevDate: 2019-11-25

Zhang H, Meng C, Wang Y, et al (2019)

Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of climate change and land use and land cover change variables on runoff and sediment discharge.

The Science of the total environment, 702:134401 pii:S0048-9697(19)34392-X [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and various human activities have resulted in noticeable changes in watershed hydrological and soil erosion regimes. In this study, a comprehensive investigation was conducted to distinguish between the effects of climate variables and those of land use and land cover change (LUCC) variables on runoff and sediment discharge in the Zhenjiangguan watershed, which is located at the headstream basin of the Minjiang River in southwest China. Statistical analysis results revealed significant and slight decreasing trends in runoff and sediment discharge, respectively. Abrupt changes occurred in 1974 and 1995, which divided the entire time series into a decrease-increase-decrease tendency pattern; this pattern was the response to climate changes and the Reforestation and Returning Farmland to Forest project in China. In addition, redundancy analysis was used for partition statistical analyses, and the contributions of climate change and LUCC to runoff and sediment discharge were at the ratio of 4:1. Since 1990, the effect of LUCC has increased notably and its relationship with hydrological variables changed from positive to negative in approximately 1995. Finally, simulations performed using the distributed Basic Pollution Calculation Center (BPCC) model confirmed that climate and LUCC variables reduced the runoff depth and sediment load between 1980 and 2003. The contributions of climate fluctuation and LUCC to runoff depth were at the ratio of 5:1, and those to sediment load were at the ratio of 3:1, which exhibited the dominant role of climate change and the high sensitivity of sediment load to human interference. Overall, the results of distributed hydrological modeling were consistent with those of statistical analyses. The results provided detailed information and explained the mechanics underlying hydrological processes and soil erosion.

RevDate: 2019-11-16

Denney DA, JT Anderson (2019)

Natural history collections document biological responses to climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

All organisms experience a series of transitions across their lives, from birth to juvenile, to reproductive adult, and finally to death. Selection operates strongly on the timing of these transitions, as advancing or delaying any of these stages can reduce lifetime fitness (e.g., Munguía-Rosas, Ollerton, Parra-Tabla, & De-Nova, 2011). Along with other abiotic and biotic agents of selection, climatic factors such as temperature and water availability can elicit phenological shifts and shape the evolution of these transitions.

RevDate: 2019-11-16

Kavousi J (2019)

There is an inverse relationship between the capacity of climate change refugia and species adaptation potential.

Climate change refugia and adaptation are two important mechanisms by which species may survive ongoing climate change (Moritz et al., 2013). However, how these two mechanisms interact is poorly understood. The goal of this paper is to explore their interaction, focusing specifically on ocean acidification refugia.

RevDate: 2019-11-22

Jahandideh-Tehrani M, Zhang H, Helfer F, et al (2019)

Review of climate change impacts on predicted river streamflow in tropical rivers.

Environmental monitoring and assessment, 191(12):752.

Tropical regions are characterized by hydrological extreme events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, quantifying the extent to which climate change may damage a hydrological system becomes crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the findings from previous research on projected impacts of climate change on hydrological systems located in regions bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It intends to provide an in-depth understanding of the climatic conditions, applied approaches, climate change impacts on future streamflow, and measures to reduce prediction uncertainty in the tropics. The review revealed that there is a significant variation in the magnitude of climate change impacts on streamflow in the tropics. The reason for the inconsistent trend prediction is that projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model structural differences, and uncertainty of downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, to minimize the uncertainty and maximize confidence in streamflow projections, it is essential to apply multi-member model ensembles and to clarify the adaptation strategy (coping, adjusting, or transforming).

RevDate: 2019-11-16

Silva LCM, Daam MA, F Gusmao (2019)

Acclimation alters glyphosate temperature-dependent toxicity: Implications for risk assessment under climate change.

Journal of hazardous materials pii:S0304-3894(19)31466-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The evaluation of temperature-dependent chemical toxicity (TDCT) is imperative for future risk assessments of pesticides under global climate change scenarios. Few TDCT studies have so far considered the ability of organisms to acclimate to altered temperatures prior to pesticide exposure, although this may change their thermal tolerance range and hence their susceptibility to pesticide stress. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of temperature acclimation on the sensitivity of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii to Glyphosate. We used the shift in sensitivity of the organisms to Glyphosate when exposed to short term temperature changes as a proxy for the effect of the developmental acclimation on sensitivity. We observed that acclimation to higher temperatures reduces the sensitivity to Glyphosate when organisms are exposed to this pesticide in lower temperatures. Therefore, acclimation to high temperatures offers some protective effect against Glyphosate toxicity. We argue that pesticide risk assessments based on tests conducted at one standard temperature should be considered with care. Realistic risk assessments considering climate change scenarios should assess the mode of which organisms are exposed to temperature, therefore taking into consideration the potential effect of temperature acclimation on the sensitivity of a species to a toxicant.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Applequist WL, Brinckmann JA, Cunningham AB, et al (2019)

Scientists' Warning on Climate Change and Medicinal Plants.

Planta medica [Epub ahead of print].

The recent publication of a World Scientists' Warning to Humanity highlighted the fact that climate change, absent strenuous mitigation or adaptation efforts, will have profound negative effects for humanity and other species, affecting numerous aspects of life. In this paper, we call attention to one of these aspects, the effects of climate change on medicinal plants. These plants provide many benefits for human health, particularly in communities where Western medicine is unavailable. As for other species, their populations may be threatened by changing temperature and precipitation regimes, disruption of commensal relationships, and increases in pests and pathogens, combined with anthropogenic habitat fragmentation that impedes migration. Additionally, medicinal species are often harvested unsustainably, and this combination of pressures may push many populations to extinction. A second issue is that some species may respond to increased environmental stresses not only with declines in biomass production but with changes in chemical content, potentially affecting quality or even safety of medicinal products. We therefore recommend actions including conservation and local cultivation of valued plants, sustainability training for harvesters and certification of commercial material, preservation of traditional knowledge, and programs to monitor raw material quality in addition to, of course, efforts to mitigate climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Wellbery CE (2019)

Climate Change Health Impacts: A Role for the Family Physician.

American family physician, 100(10):602-603.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Lum L (2019)

Climate Change: What the Science Tells Us.

American family physician, 100(10):Online.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Anderson JT, SM Wadgymar (2019)

Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration.

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large-scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low-elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.

RevDate: 2019-11-20

Zhu Z, Liu Y, Kuang H, et al (2019)

Altered fluvial patterns in North China indicate rapid climate change linked to the Permian-Triassic mass extinction.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16818.

The causes of the severest crisis in the history of life around the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) remain controversial. Here we report that the latest Permian alluvial plains in Shanxi, North China, went through a rapid transition from meandering rivers to braided rivers and aeolian systems. Soil carbonate carbon isotope (δ13C), oxygen isotope (δ18O), and geochemical signatures of weathering intensity reveal a consistent pattern of deteriorating environments (cool, arid, and anoxic conditions) and climate fluctuations across the PTB. The synchronous ecological collapse is confirmed by a dramatic reduction or disappearance of dominant plants, tetrapods and invertebrates and a bloom of microbially-induced sedimentary structures. A similar rapid switch in fluvial style is seen worldwide (e.g. Karoo Basin, Russia, Australia) in terrestrial boundary sequences, all of which may be considered against a background of global marine regression. The synchronous global expansion of alluvial fans and high-energy braided streams is a response to abrupt climate change associated with aridity, hypoxia, acid rain, and mass wasting. Where neighbouring uplands were not uplifting or basins subsiding, alluvial fans are absent, but in these areas the climate change is evidenced by the disruption of pedogenesis.

RevDate: 2019-11-15
CmpDate: 2019-11-15

Mi H, Fagherazzi S, Qiao G, et al (2019)

Climate change leads to a doubling of turbidity in a rapidly expanding Tibetan lake.

The Science of the total environment, 688:952-959.

Recent climate change is causing most lakes on the Tibetan Plateau to grow at an unprecedented rate. Changes in the physical properties and water storage of the lakes are now relatively well documented. Yet the impacts on their water quality remain poorly understood. Turbidity is a well-established optical water-quality indicator related to suspended particulate matter concentration which can affect vertical light attenuation and ecosystem functioning. Here, we use remotely sensed data to assess the seasonal and long-term variations in turbidity in Siling Lake, one of the fastest growing lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, and to identify potential driving mechanisms of this change. The lake experiences two distinct peaks of turbidity during the year: one in August (warm season) caused by the seasonal influx of sediments from the Zagya Zangbo River, and one in December (cold season) caused by the wind-driven resuspension of sediments along the lakes' shorelines. The analysis further revealed a persistent increasing trend that doubled the average lake turbidity between 2000 and 2017. Evidence suggests this rise in turbidity results from a climate-driven increase in sediment supply from the Zagya Zangbo River, and from sediment resuspension associated with the erosion of shorelines recently submerged during the rapid expansion of the lake (paleoshorelines). Our results highlight the vulnerability of the Tibetan Lakes' water quality to climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Yue Y, Zhang P, Y Shang (2019)

The potential global distribution and dynamics of wheat under multiple climate change scenarios.

The Science of the total environment, 688:1308-1318.

Accurately predicting changes in the potential distribution of crops resulting from climate change has great significance for adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring food security. Based on very large datasets of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) occurrence points and the main environmental factors that affect wheat growth, we used the Maxent model to predict the future global potential distribution and land suitability for wheat cultivation under multiple global climate change scenarios. Our results indicated that the suitability for wheat cultivation is primarily influenced by climatic factors and that the ≥0 °C accumulated temperature is especially important. The RCP4.5 scenario is more favourable for wheat cultivation, whereas the RCP8.5 scenario is the least favourable. Moreover, land suitability for wheat cultivation increased in Europe, Russia, the United States, Canada, China, and Pakistan, whereas a decreasing trend in suitability was found in Central and Eastern Africa, Australia, and South India. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase land suitability for wheat cultivation in middle- and high-latitude areas, and to decrease suitability in low latitude areas. Although the global distribution of wheat will not significantly alter with climate change, the risks to wheat cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Anonymous (2020)

Climate Change and Health: A Call to Action.

Holistic nursing practice, 34(1):1.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Usher K, Durkin J, N Bhullar (2019)

Eco-anxiety: How thinking about climate change-related environmental decline is affecting our mental health.

International journal of mental health nursing, 28(6):1233-1234.

RevDate: 2019-11-14

Wei J, Peng L, He Z, et al (2019)

Potential distribution of two invasive pineapple pests under climate change.

Pest management science [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: The number of global invasive species has significantly increased during the past two centuries due to globalization. The understanding of species invasion under climate change is crucial for sustainable biodiversity conservation, community dynamics, ecosystem function, and resource distribution. Two invasive species, Dysmicoccus brevipes (Cockerell) and D. neobrevipes (Beardsley) have greatly expanded their ranges during recent years. These insects are now considered as extremely serious pests for various plants, especially pineapple. In addition, they are the primary vectors for pineapple wilt associated virus. However, the potential distribution range and management strategies for these pests are unclear.

RESULTS: In this study, potential risk maps were developed for these pests with MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under different environmental variables. The potential distributions of these pests were projected for 2050s and 2070s under three climate change scenarios as described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results showed that both pests have similar potential distributions, with high environmental suitability in South America, Africa and South Asia. In addition, potential range expansions or reductions were predicted under different climate change scenarios. The annual mean temperature was the most important factor, accounting for 43.4% of D. brevipes distribution. The minimum temperature of coldest month and mean temperature of coldest quarter was found to be responsible for 90.3% of D. neobrevipes distribution.

CONCLUSION: This research provided a theoretical reference framework to develop policies in the management and control of these invasive pests. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

RevDate: 2019-11-17

Domenici P, Allan BJM, Lefrançois C, et al (2019)

The effect of climate change on the escape kinematics and performance of fishes: implications for future predator-prey interactions.

Conservation physiology, 7(1):coz078.

Climate change can have a pronounced impact on the physiology and behaviour of fishes. Notably, many climate change stressors, such as global warming, hypoxia and ocean acidification (OA), have been shown to alter the kinematics of predator-prey interactions in fishes, with potential effects at ecological levels. Here, we review the main effects of each of these stressors on fish escape responses using an integrative approach that encompasses behavioural and kinematic variables. Elevated temperature was shown to affect many components of the escape response, including escape latencies, kinematics and maximum swimming performance, while the main effect of hypoxia was on escape responsiveness and directionality. OA had a negative effect on the escape response of juvenile fish by decreasing their directionality, responsiveness and locomotor performance, although some studies show no effect of acidification. The few studies that have explored the effects of multiple stressors show that temperature tends to have a stronger effect on escape performance than OA. Overall, the effects of climate change on escape responses may occur through decreased muscle performance and/or an interference with brain and sensory functions. In all of these cases, since the escape response is a behaviour directly related to survival, these effects are likely to be fundamental drivers of changes in marine communities. The overall future impact of these stressors is discussed by including their potential effects on predator attack behaviour, thereby allowing the development of potential future scenarios for predator-prey interactions.

RevDate: 2019-11-20

Meyer-Jacob C, Michelutti N, Paterson AM, et al (2019)

The browning and re-browning of lakes: Divergent lake-water organic carbon trends linked to acid deposition and climate change.

Scientific reports, 9(1):16676.

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and water colour are increasing in many inland waters across northern Europe and northeastern North America. This inland-water "browning" has profound physical, chemical and biological repercussions for aquatic ecosystems affecting water quality, biological community structures and aquatic productivity. Potential drivers of this "browning" trend are complex and include reductions in atmospheric acid deposition, changes in land use/cover, increased nitrogen deposition and climate change. However, because of the overlapping impacts of these stressors, their relative contributions to DOC dynamics remain unclear, and without appropriate long-term monitoring data, it has not been possible to determine whether the ongoing "browning" is unprecedented or simply a "re-browning" to pre-industrial DOC levels. Here, we demonstrate the long-term impacts of acid deposition and climate change on lake-water DOC concentrations in low and high acid-deposition areas using infrared spectroscopic techniques on ~200-year-long lake-sediment records from central Canada. We show that acid deposition suppressed naturally higher DOC concentrations during the 20th century, but that a "re-browning" of lakes is now occurring with emissions reductions in formerly high deposition areas. In contrast, in low deposition areas, climate change is forcing lakes towards new ecological states, as lake-water DOC concentrations now often exceed pre-industrial levels.

RevDate: 2019-11-26

Ladouceur R (2019)

Our fight against climate change.

Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien, 65(11):766.

RevDate: 2019-11-13

Beggs PJ, Zhang Y, Bambrick H, et al (2019)

The 2019 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress.

The Medical journal of Australia [Epub ahead of print].

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change was established in 2017 and produced its first Australian national assessment in 2018. It examined 41 indicators across five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. It found that, overall, Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on health, and that policy inaction in this regard threatens Australian lives. In this report we present the 2019 update. We track progress on health and climate change in Australia across the same five broad domains and many of the same indicators as in 2018. A number of new indicators are introduced this year, including one focused on wildfire exposure, and another on engagement in health and climate change in the corporate sector. Several of the previously reported indicators are not included this year, either due to their discontinuation by the parent project, the Lancet Countdown, or because insufficient new data were available for us to meaningfully provide an update to the indicator. In a year marked by an Australian federal election in which climate change featured prominently, we find mixed progress on health and climate change in this country. There has been progress in renewable energy generation, including substantial employment increases in this sector. There has also been some progress at state and local government level. However, there continues to be no engagement on health and climate change in the Australian federal Parliament, and Australia performs poorly across many of the indicators in comparison to other developed countries; for example, it is one of the world's largest net exporters of coal and its electricity generation from low carbon sources is low. We also find significantly increasing exposure of Australians to heatwaves and, in most states and territories, continuing elevated suicide rates at higher temperatures. We conclude that Australia remains at significant risk of declines in health due to climate change, and that substantial and sustained national action is urgently required in order to prevent this.

RevDate: 2019-11-13

Callaghan TV, Kulikova O, Rakhmanova L, et al (2019)

Improving dialogue among researchers, local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North.

Ambio pii:10.1007/s13280-019-01277-9 [Epub ahead of print].

The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better.

RevDate: 2019-11-15

Smith TP, Thomas TJH, García-Carreras B, et al (2019)

Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming.

Nature communications, 10(1):5124.

Understanding how the metabolic rates of prokaryotes respond to temperature is fundamental to our understanding of how ecosystem functioning will be altered by climate change, as these micro-organisms are major contributors to global carbon efflux. Ecological metabolic theory suggests that species living at higher temperatures evolve higher growth rates than those in cooler niches due to thermodynamic constraints. Here, using a global prokaryotic dataset, we find that maximal growth rate at thermal optimum increases with temperature for mesophiles (temperature optima [Formula: see text]C), but not thermophiles ([Formula: see text]C). Furthermore, short-term (within-day) thermal responses of prokaryotic metabolic rates are typically more sensitive to warming than those of eukaryotes. Because climatic warming will mostly impact ecosystems in the mesophilic temperature range, we conclude that as microbial communities adapt to higher temperatures, their metabolic rates and therefore, biomass-specific CO[Formula: see text] production, will inevitably rise. Using a mathematical model, we illustrate the potential global impacts of these findings.

RevDate: 2019-11-15
CmpDate: 2019-11-15

Khruleva OA, AV Stekolshchikov (2019)

Additions to the aphid fauna of Wrangel Island due to climate change withbr />redescription of the oviparous female of Pterocomma groenlandicum Hille Ris Lambers, 1952 (Hemiptera, Aphidoidea).

Zootaxa, 4615(3):zootaxa.4615.3.6 pii:zootaxa.4615.3.6.

The article contains new data on the Aphidoidea of Wrangel Island collected in 2015. Previously, at least four species were known. Two of them, Aphis polaris Stekolshchikov et Khruleva, 2014 and Metopolophium sabihae Prior, 1976, were regularly observed on the island in the 1980s and 1990s. Pterocomma groenlandicum Hille Ris Lambers, 1952 and Myzus (Nectarosiphon) polaris Hille Ris Lambers, 1952, were first collected in 2006. In 2015 three more species were found: Brachycaudus (Mordvilkomemor) rumexicolens (Patch, 1917), Cavariella aegopodii (Scopoli, 1763), and Pemphigus saliciradicis (Börner, 1950). This last species represents a first record for the territory of Russia whereas C. aegopodii had not previously been collected in tundra landscapes. In 2015, a total of seven aphid species were collected. For one of the four previously noted species, M. sabihae, a sharp increase in its abundance is recorded. We propose that the increase in aphid species diversity is due to climate warming in the Russian High Arctic. A detailed redescription of the oviparous female of P. groenlandicum is also provided.

RevDate: 2019-11-12

Patrick K (2019)

Climate change, taxes and health: getting government back to work on its most urgent business.

CMAJ : Canadian Medical Association journal = journal de l'Association medicale canadienne, 191(45):E1233-E1234.

RevDate: 2019-11-17

McLeay LJ, Doubell MJ, AJ Linnane (2019)

Spatial and temporal variations in female size at maturity of a Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) population: A likely response to climate change.

PloS one, 14(11):e0225144.

The size at which sexual maturity is reached is a key population parameter used to guide the setting of minimum legal size limits in fisheries. Understanding spatial and temporal variations in size at maturity is fundamental to management because the relationship between size at maturity and minimum legal size limits affects the fraction of the mature population biomass that is harvested, and resulting egg production, larval settlement and recruitment. This study measured the size at maturity of female Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) across South Australia between 1991 and 2015 in relation to known oceanographic characteristics, surface and subsurface temperature data, and relative changes in lobster abundance. There was pronounced north to south spatial variation in estimates of size at maturity. Larger average size at maturity was recorded in warmer north-western areas of the fishery relative to the cooler waters of the south-east. Estimates of size at maturity also differed over 25 years across the fishery. However, the nature of temporal responses varied spatially, and were more consistent with variations in surface and subsurface water temperature at local-scales than changes in lobster density. In the well-mixed waters of the north-western, western and south-eastern parts of the fishery, relatively high rates of increase in sea-surface temperature and size at maturity were recorded since 1991, indicating that size at maturity may be responding to ocean warming associated with global climate change. In more central parts of the fishery, contrasting temporal signals in sea-surface temperature (positive) and bottom temperature (negative) indicated increases in upwelling strength over the study period, and formation of a bottom cold pool below a warm surface layer, with corresponding decreases in size at maturity recorded. The spatio-temporal changes in size at maturity measured in this study highlight the need for oceanographic information to be integrated into future stock assessment models to enhance harvest strategy development, allow timely adaptive management decisions and increase the resilience of fisheries to the impacts of climate change.

RevDate: 2019-11-11

Cowell JM (2019)

Climate Change, School Health and School Nursing: A Call to Action.

The Journal of school nursing : the official publication of the National Association of School Nurses, 35(6):394.

RevDate: 2019-11-11

Wonneberger A, Meijers MHC, ART Schuck (2019)

Shifting public engagement: How media coverage of climate change conferences affects climate change audience segments.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

While it is often assumed that media attention for events, such as international climate change conferences, can influence public opinion, research studying changes in public opinion concerning climate change is scarce. Research on climate change audience segments and the theory of motivated reasoning suggest that media effects depend on the level of audience engagement with climate change. We analyze how exposure to media coverage of the COP21 affected public opinion in the Netherlands. Based on a two-wave online panel survey (N = 876), we identified five audience segments that varied in their degree of climate change beliefs, involvement, policy preferences, and behavioral intentions. Different media effects across segments were found indicating (dis)confirmation bias, specifically, for medium levels of positive and negative engagement. The findings indicate that important events may cause limited changes in public opinion and emphasize the importance of studying segment-specific and content-specific media effects.

RevDate: 2019-11-10

He J, Enomana H, Dupras J, et al (2019)

Measuring Recreation Benefit Loss under Climate Change with Revealed and Stated Behavior Data: The Case of Lac Saint-Pierre World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada).

Environmental management pii:10.1007/s00267-019-01219-x [Epub ahead of print].

Based on a case study carried out on the Lac Saint-Pierre (LSP) World Biosphere Reserve (Québec, Canada), this paper estimates ecosystem service loss, more precisely the loss related to cultural and recreational activities of the LSP due to the fall of its water level under the pressure of climate change. We measure two dimensions of this loss. As a first step, the extrapolation of our representative survey reports $100 million annual loss in terms of recreation revenue due to the trip reduction to LSP, which is about 60% of current level. Subsequently, the travel-cost data and the contingent behavior data are combined in a revealed and stated behavior panel random-effect estimation, which reports an additional loss measured by consumer surplus that visitors can obtain from their trips up to $232 million, signifying 42% of reduction in their current value.

RevDate: 2019-11-25

Stefanova A, Hesse C, Krysanova V, et al (2019)

Assessment of Socio-Economic and Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Four European Lagoon Catchments.

Environmental management, 64(6):701-720.

This study demonstrates the importance of considering potential land use and management changes in climate impact research. By taking into account possible trends of economic development and environmental awareness, we assess effects of global warming on water availability and quality in the catchments of four European lagoons: Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), Mar Menor (Spain), Vistula Lagoon (Poland and Russia), and Tyligulskyi Liman (Ukraine). Different setups of the process-based soil and water integrated model (SWIM), representing one reference and four socio-economic scenarios for each study area: the "business as usual", "crisis", "managed horizons", and "set-aside" scenarios are driven by sets of 15 climate scenarios for a reference (1971-2000) and near future (2011-2040) scenario period. Modeling results suggest a large spatial variability of potential impacts across the study areas, due to differences in the projected precipitation trends and the current environmental and socio-economic conditions. While climate change may reduce water and nutrients input to the Ria de Aveiro and Tyligulsyi Liman and increase water inflow to the Vistula Lagoon the socio-economic scenarios and their implications may balance out or reverse these trends. In the intensely managed Mar Menor catchment, climate change has no notable direct impact on water resources, but changes in land use and water management may certainly aggravate the current environmental problems. The great heterogeneity among results does not allow formulating adaptation or mitigation measures at pan-European level, as initially intended by this study. It rather implies the need of a regional approach in coastal zone management.

RevDate: 2019-11-09

Boland TM, JL Temte (2019)

Family Medicine Patient and Physician Attitudes Toward Climate Change and Health in Wisconsin.

Wilderness & environmental medicine pii:S1080-6032(19)30157-7 [Epub ahead of print].

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is an increasingly relevant public health issue attracting increasing amounts of attention. Despite family medicine being at the front line for public health, no recent studies have assessed the opinions of physicians and patients regarding climate change and health in the family medicine setting.

METHODS: Surveys were distributed to adult patients in the waiting rooms of 4 University of Wisconsin Department of Family Medicine and Community Health clinics. Four hundred three patient surveys were collected, for an 86% response rate. An online survey was distributed to all University of Wisconsin Department of Family Medicine and Community Health physicians. Fifty-eight surveys were collected for a 32% response rate.

RESULTS: Forty-four percent of patients believe climate change is currently affecting their community's health. Patients have high trust in their physician regarding environmental issues (median=4 out of 5), and 6% of patients ranked their physician as a top source of information on this topic. Sixty-four percent of physicians believe climate change is affecting their patients' health, and 17% are comfortable counseling patients about climate change and health. Although 71% of physicians believe climate change is relevant to primary care, 31% believe that physicians should have an active role in discussing climate change with patients.

CONCLUSIONS: Patients and physicians are concerned about climate change and its health implications. Patient data reveals that physicians are highly trusted but underutilized sources. However, physicians are unsure of their role in addressing this topic. Thus, a large opportunity exists for family physicians to educate patients on the emerging issue of climate change and health.

RevDate: 2019-11-08

Prieto I, JI Querejeta (2019)

Simulated climate change decreases nutrient resorption from senescing leaves.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Nutrient resorption is the process whereby plants recover nutrients from senescing leaves and reallocate them to storage structures or newer tissues. Elemental resorption of foliar N and P has been shown to respond to temperature and precipitation but we know remarkably little about the influence of warming and drought on the resorption of these and other essential plant macro- and micronutrients, which could alter the ability of species to recycle their nutrients. We conducted a 5-year manipulative field study to simulate predicted climate change conditions and studied the effects of warming (W), rainfall reduction (RR) and their combination (W + RR) on nutrient resorption efficiency in five coexisting shrub species in a semiarid shrubland. Both mature and senesced leaves showed significant reductions in their nutrient contents and an altered stoichiometry in response to climate change conditions. Warming (W, W + RR) reduced mature leaf N, K, Ca, S, Fe and Zn and senesced leaf N, Ca, Mg, S, Fe and Zn contents relative to ambient temperature conditions. Warming increased mature leaf C/N ratios and decreased N/P and C/P ratios and increased senesced leaf C/N and C/P ratios. Furthermore, W and W + RR reduced nutrient resorption efficiencies for N (6.3%), K (19.8%), S (70.9%) and increased Ca and Fe accumulation in senesced leaves (440% and 35.7%, respectively) relative to the control treatment. Rainfall reduction decreased the resorption efficiencies of N (6.7%), S (51%) and Zn (46%). Reductions in nutrient resorption efficiencies with warming and/or rainfall reduction were rather uniform and consistent across species. The negative impacts of warming and rainfall reduction on foliar nutrient resorption efficiency will likely cause an impairment of plant nutrient budgets and fitness across coexisting native shrubs in this nutrient-poor habitat, with probable implications for key ecosystem functions such as reductions in nutrient retention in vegetation, litter decomposition and nutrient cycling rates.


ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

Electronic Scholarly Publishing
961 Red Tail Lane
Bellingham, WA 98226

E-mail: RJR8222 @

Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).


ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.


Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )