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Bibliography on: Climate Change

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ESP: PubMed Auto Bibliography 19 Jan 2021 at 01:36 Created: 

Climate Change

The year 2014 was the hottest year on record, since the beginning of record keeping over 100 years ago. The year 2015 broke that record, and 2016 will break the record of 2015. The Earth seems to be on a significant warming trend.

Created with PubMed® Query: "climate change"[TITLE] or "global warming"[TITLE] NOT pmcbook NOT ispreviousversion

Citations The Papers (from PubMed®)

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RevDate: 2021-01-16

Lieber M, Chin-Hong P, Whittle HJ, et al (2021)

The Synergistic Relationship Between Climate Change and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: A Conceptual Framework.

AIDS and behavior [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and HIV/AIDS represent two of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. However, limitations in understanding the complex relationship between these syndemics continue to constrain advancements in the prevention and management of HIV/AIDS in the context of a rapidly changing climate. Here, we present a conceptual framework that identifies four pathways linking climate change with HIV/AIDS transmission and health outcomes: increased food insecurity, increased prevalence of other infectious diseases, increased human migration, and erosion of public health infrastructure. This framework is based on an in-depth literature review in PubMed and Google Scholar from June 6 to June 27, 2019. The pathways linking climate change with HIV transmission and health outcomes are complex with multiple interacting factors. Food insecurity emerged as a particularly important mediator by driving sexual risk-taking behaviours and migration, as well as by increasing susceptibility to infections that are common among people living with HIV (PLWHIV). Future interventions should focus on decreasing carbon dioxide emissions globally and increasing education and investment in adaptation strategies, particularly in those areas of sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia heavily impacted by both HIV and climate change. Environmentally sustainable interventions such as urban gardening and investing in sustainable agriculture technologies also have significant health co-benefits that may help PLWHIV adapt to the environmental consequences of climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-16

Rautio A, Kukarenko N, Nilsson LM, et al (2021)

Climate Change in the Arctic-The Need for a Broader Gender Perspective in Data Collection.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(2): pii:ijerph18020628.

Climate change in the Arctic affects both environmental, animal, and human health, as well as human wellbeing and societal development. Women and men, and girls and boys are affected differently. Sex-disaggregated data collection is increasingly carried out as a routine in human health research and in healthcare analysis. This study involved a literature review and used a case study design to analyze gender differences in the roles and responsibilities of men and women residing in the Arctic. The theoretical background for gender-analysis is here described together with examples from the Russian Arctic and a literature search. We conclude that a broader gender-analysis of sex-disaggregated data followed by actions is a question of human rights and also of economic benefits for societies at large and of the quality of services as in the health care.

RevDate: 2021-01-16

Moyo M, I Nsahlai (2021)

Consequences of Increases in Ambient Temperature and Effect of Climate Type on Digestibility of Forages by Ruminants: A Meta-Analysis in Relation to Global Warming.

Animals : an open access journal from MDPI, 11(1): pii:ani11010172.

This meta-analysis evaluated the effects of ruminant feeding type, ambient temperature (AT), and climatic region on the rumen digestibility of feeds. A dataset on nylon bag degradability parameters bearing the chemical composition of roughages, grains, leaves, stems, fruits, concentrates and diets given to animals, climate type, and AT were compiled. Data were analysed using mixed model regression and simple linear regression methodologies. Negative correlations between AT and degradability parameters were observed. Potential degradability (PD) and slowly degradable fraction ('b') were higher for concentrates and mixed diets compared to roughages. Intermediate feeders had slower rates of degradation ('c') compared to grazers. Potential degradability was highest for studies carried out in cold and temperate climates compared to tropical and arid climates. A 1 °C increase in AT decreased PD by 0.39% (roughages), 0.76% (concentrates), and 2.41% (mixed diets), with an overall decrease of 0.55% for all feed types. The "b" fraction decreased by 0.1% (roughages), 1.1% (concentrates), 2.27% (mixed diets), and 0.35% (all feed types) for every 1 °C increase in AT. Increasing AT by 1 °C increased the neutral detergent fibre content of feeds by 0.4%. In conclusion, increases in AT increased the neutral detergent fibre content of feeds, lowering PD, "b", and "c" of dry matter in the rumen.

RevDate: 2021-01-15

Tariku TB, Gan KE, Tan X, et al (2021)

Global warming impact to River Basin of Blue Nile and the optimum operation of its multi-reservoir system for hydropower production and irrigation.

The Science of the total environment, 767:144863 pii:S0048-9697(20)38396-0 [Epub ahead of print].

The water resource of the Blue Nile River basin (BNRB) has been under pressure due to growing demands from many users, and the climate change impact. Potential impact of climate change for the maximum, median and minimum projected changes in the simulated streamflow of BNRB by a hydrologic model, VIC, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, of 4 GCMs (global climate models) downscaled dynamically by a regional climate model, WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) using a one-domain framework that covers the entire NRB for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. These projected changes in streamflow were used to assess its future water allocations using a stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm and a hydro-economic model to optimize hydropower production and irrigated agriculture. Overall, it seems the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir will likely not operate at full storage level because the streamflow of BNRB is assumed to be regulated by three upstream reservoirs. The outflow from the reservoir of GERD or BNRB's annual flow at Khartoum is projected to increase under maximum, but is expected to decrease under minimum and median projected changes in streamflow for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. Given the annual net benefit obtained from hydropower production and irrigated agriculture of the reservoir is projected to increase (decrease) under the maximum (median and minimum) projected changes in streamflow, the potential climate change impact should be considered in designing and developing the future water resources of BNRB.

RevDate: 2021-01-15

Marolla F, Henden JA, Fuglei E, et al (2021)

Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point-transect distance-sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: 1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and 2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved non-linearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.

RevDate: 2021-01-15

Reed T, Mason LR, CC Ekenga (2020)

Adapting to Climate Change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: Exploring Stakeholder Perspectives on River System Management and Flood Risk Reduction.

Environmental health insights, 14:1178630220984153 pii:10.1177_1178630220984153.

In the Midwestern United States (US), river flooding is a climate change-related hazard that poses a significant threat to health, well-being and economic stability. The 2019 Midwest floods led to major flooding at every monitoring site along the Mississippi River, set record water levels at 42 sites, and resulted in an estimated $6.2 billion in infrastructure damage and recovery costs. Although the risks associated with increasing flooding in the Midwestern US have been well recognized, less is known about the adaptation challenges and opportunities in the region, particularly in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This exploratory study examined stakeholder perspectives on river system management, flood risk reduction, and adaptation planning in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. We conducted in-depth interviews with flood management stakeholders between August and October 2019. Interview data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Five themes emerged from the interviews: (1) River flooding in the Midwestern US is a different experience than US coastal flooding; (2) River flooding in the Midwestern US is a regional experience that requires a regional response; (3) Local actors face constrained resources for flood risk protection and recovery; (4) Differentiated responsibility across levels of governments makes recovery and response difficult to navigate; and (5) Competing stakeholder goals challenge cooperative flood hazard management. Overall, these results suggest that locally focused adaptation efforts, while perhaps appropriate for coastal communities or more urban contexts, are suboptimal strategies for communities in the flood-prone river basins of the Midwestern US. Instead, structures and support for regional collaboration should be considered and pursued.

RevDate: 2021-01-15

Urvois T, Auger-Rozenberg MA, Roques A, et al (2021)

Climate change impact on the potential geographical distribution of two invading Xylosandrus ambrosia beetles.

Scientific reports, 11(1):1339.

Xylosandrus compactus and X. crassiusculus are two polyphagous ambrosia beetles originating from Asia and invasive in circumtropical regions worldwide. Both species were recently reported in Italy and further invaded several other European countries in the following years. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate the suitable areas worldwide for both species under the current climate. We also made future projections for years 2050 and 2070 using 11 different General Circulation Models, for 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Our analyses showed that X. compactus has not been reported in all potentially suitable areas yet. Its current distribution in Europe is localised, whereas our results predicted that most of the periphery of the Mediterranean Sea and most of the Atlantic coast of France could be suitable. Outside Europe, our results also predicted Central America, all islands in Southeast Asia and some Oceanian coasts as suitable. Even though our results when modelling its potential distribution under future climates were more variable, the models predicted an increase in suitability poleward and more uncertainty in the circumtropical regions. For X. crassiusculus, the same method only yielded poor results, and the models thus could not be used for predictions. We discuss here these results and propose advice about risk prevention and invasion management of both species.

RevDate: 2021-01-14

Negev M, Dahdal Y, Khreis H, et al (2020)

Regional lessons from the COVID-19 outbreak in the Middle East: From infectious diseases to climate change adaptation.

The Science of the total environment, 768:144434 pii:S0048-9697(20)37965-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Global health threats including epidemics and climate change, know no political borders and require regional collaboration if they are to be dealt with effectively. This paper starts with a review of the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel, Palestine and Jordan, in the context of the regional health systems, demography and politics. We suggest that Israel and Palestine function as one epidemiological unit, due to extensive border crossing of inhabitants and tourists, resulting in cross-border infections and potential for outbreaks' transmission. Indeed, there is a correlation between the numbers of confirmed cases with a 2-3 weeks lag. In contrast, Jordan has the ability to seal its borders and better contain the spread of the virus. We then discuss comparative public health aspects in relation to the management of COVID-19 and long term adaptation to climate change. We suggest that lessons from the current crisis can inform regional adaptation to climate change. There is an urgent need for better health surveillance, data sharing across borders, and more resilient health systems that are prepared and equipped for emergencies. Another essential and currently missing prerequisite is close cooperation within and across countries amidst political conflict, in order to protect the public health of all inhabitants of the region.

RevDate: 2021-01-14

Luccioni A, Schmidt V, Vardanyan V, et al (2021)

Using Artificial Intelligence to Visualize the Impacts of Climate Change.

IEEE computer graphics and applications, 41(1):8-14.

Public awareness and concern about climate change often do not match the magnitude of its threat to humans and our environment. One reason for this disagreement is that it is difficult to mentally simulate the effects of a process as complex as climate change and to have a concrete representation of the impact that our individual actions will have on our own future, especially if the consequences are long term and abstract. To overcome these challenges, we propose to use cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI) approaches to develop an interactive personalized visualization tool, the AI climate impact visualizer. It will allow a user to enter an address-be it their house, their school, or their workplace--and it will provide them with an AI-imagined possible visualization of the future of this location in 2050 following the detrimental effects of climate change such as floods, storms, and wildfires. This image will be accompanied by accessible information regarding the science behind climate change, i.e., why extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and what kinds of changes are happening on a local and global scale.

RevDate: 2021-01-13

Larcombe AN, Papini MG, Chivers EK, et al (2021)

Mouse Lung Structure and Function after Long-Term Exposure to an Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Level Predicted by Climate Change Modeling.

Environmental health perspectives, 129(1):17001.

BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide [CO 2 ] levels will be between 700 and 900 ppm within the next 80 y. Despite this, the direct physiological effects of exposure to slightly elevated atmospheric CO 2 (as compared with ∼ 410 ppm experienced today), especially when exposures extend from preconception to adulthood, have not been thoroughly studied.

OBJECTIVES: In this study we aimed to assess the respiratory structure and function effects of long-term exposure to 890 ppm CO 2 from preconception to adulthood using a mouse model.

METHODS: We exposed mice to CO 2 (∼ 890 ppm) from prepregnancy, through the in utero and early life periods, until 3 months of age, at which point we assessed respiratory function using the forced oscillation technique, and lung structure.

RESULTS: CO 2 exposure resulted in a range of respiratory impairments, particularly in female mice, including higher tissue elastance, longer chord length, and lower lung compliance. Importantly, we also assessed the lung function of the dams that gave birth to our experimental subjects. Even though these mice had been exposed to the same level of increased CO 2 for a similar amount of time (∼ 8 wk), we measured no impairments in lung function. This suggests that the early life period, when lungs are undergoing rapid growth and development, is particularly sensitive to CO 2 .

DISCUSSION: To the best of our knowledge, this study, for the first time, shows that long-term exposure to environmentally relevant levels of CO 2 can impact respiratory function in the mouse. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7305.

RevDate: 2021-01-13

Ramkumar J, Rosencranz H, L Herzog (2021)

Asthma Exacerbation Triggered by Wildfire: A Standardized Patient Case to Integrate Climate Change Into Medical Curricula.

MedEdPORTAL : the journal of teaching and learning resources, 17:11063 pii:11063.

Introduction: Climate change presents unprecedented health threats. It is imperative that medical trainees understand the implications of climate change/planetary health on the physical and mental health and well-being of their patients. Medical professionals generally are not trained to consider climate change impacts in patient encounters. Hence, there is a need to train climate-aware providers who will be at the forefront of patient care in managing these current and emerging health impacts.

Methods: We created a standardized patient (SP) case enhanced with details of risks and health impacts due to exposure to wildfire smoke. This session was deployed to 11 internal medicine clerkship students as part of a standard OSCE already included in our curriculum to evaluate core clinical and communication skills. Two cohorts, a group activity, and a one-on-one encounter were deployed and followed with a faculty debrief and learner assessments.

Results: Students had increased awareness and knowledge of health impacts of climate change and potential actions for adaptation and mitigation. The improvements were statistically significant for the one-on-one cohort (p = .006). Postsimulation comments were favorable; students were more inclined to consider health impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities exacerbated by climate change.

Discussion: Students had an increased recognition of climate change as a force impacting their patients' health which should be considered in patient care. This format allowed retention of well established curricular content, but also the inclusion of other crucial emerging issues that will impact public health locally and globally and foster the development of climate-aware health care providers.

RevDate: 2021-01-13

Lubinda J, Haque U, Bi Y, et al (2021)

Near-term climate change impacts on sub-national malaria transmission.

Scientific reports, 11(1):751.

The role of climate change on global malaria is often highlighted in World Health Organisation reports. We modelled a Zambian socio-environmental dataset from 2000 to 2016, against malaria trends and investigated the relationship of near-term environmental change with malaria incidence using Bayesian spatio-temporal, and negative binomial mixed regression models. We introduced the diurnal temperature range (DTR) as an alternative environmental measure to the widely used mean temperature. We found substantial sub-national near-term variations and significant associations with malaria incidence-trends. Significant spatio-temporal shifts in DTR/environmental predictors influenced malaria incidence-rates, even in areas with declining trends. We highlight the impact of seasonally sensitive DTR, especially in the first two quarters of the year and demonstrate how substantial investment in intervention programmes is negatively impacted by near-term climate change, most notably since 2010. We argue for targeted seasonally-sensitive malaria chemoprevention programmes.

RevDate: 2021-01-13

Jiang R, He W, He L, et al (2021)

Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China.

Scientific reports, 11(1):810.

Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) < 10%, -5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) < 5% and index of agreement (d) > 0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980-2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6-32.1% and 3.6-14.0 kg N kg-1 respectively under future climate scenarios (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.

RevDate: 2021-01-13

Stewart AE (2021)

Psychometric Properties of the Climate Change Worry Scale.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(2): pii:ijerph18020494.

Climate change worry involves primarily verbal-linguistic thoughts about the changes that may occur in the climate system and the possible effects of these changes. Such worry is one of several possible psychological responses (e.g., fear, anxiety, depression, and trauma) to climate change. Within this article, the psychometric development of the ten-item Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) is detailed in three studies. The scale was developed to assess proximal worry about climate change rather than social or global impacts. Study 1 provided evidence that the CCWS items were internally consistent, constituted a single factor, and that the facture structure of the items was invariant for men and women. The results from Study 1 also indicated a good fit with a Rasch model of the items. Study 2 affirmed the internal consistency of the CCWS items and indicated that peoples' responses to the measure were temporally stable over a two-week test-retest interval (r = 0.91). Study 3 provided support for the convergent and divergent validity of the CCWS through its pattern of correlations with several established clinical and weather-related measures. The limitations of the studies and the possible uses of the CCWS were discussed. The current work represents a starting point.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Shi L, Zhang J, Yao F, et al (2020)

Drivers to dust emissions over dust belt from 1980 to 2018 and their variation in two global warming phases.

The Science of the total environment, 767:144860 pii:S0048-9697(20)38393-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Dust storms are one of the major disasters in arid and semi-arid regions. Understanding the impact factors is crucial for early warning and disaster mitigation. Many factors have been affecting the spatiotemporal patterns of dust storms. However, the relative importance of those factors to dust emissions in recent 40 years over the whole dust belt has not been well documented. This study explored the relative importance of those factors to the interannual variation in dust emissions over the whole dust belt. The difference in the primary contributors over two global warming phases was compared to investigate the association of dust emission trend with global warming. The results indicated that the wind regimes, such as the nocturnal low-level jet, were key factors to the wintertime dust emissions over the Sahel. The springtime dust storms related to cold air and cyclones primarily occurred in the southern coast of the Mediterranean and northwestern China. The cold high and heat low were typical mechanisms for the summertime dust emissions, which frequently formed in western North Africa, the Middle East, and northwestern Indian subcontinent. Whereas the land cover and drought conditions play significant roles in the relatively wetter regions, i.e., the southern coast of the Mediterranean, the Ustyurt Plateau, the northwest coast of Indian Ocean, the Thar desert and the Taklimakan desert. The wintertime global warming coincided well with the decreasing trend of dust emissions over the dust sources inland with a more significant effect seen in Asia. The positive anomalies of summertime dust emissions were primarily found over the dust sources in the low-lying coastal areas on the foot of high mountains. Understanding the relative importance of those drivers to dust emission trends and their variation under different warming periods can improve the prediction of dust storm evolutions and mitigate their impacts under future climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Kim S, Kim SY, Oh J, et al (2020)

Effects of the 2018 heat wave on health in the elderly: implications for adaptation strategies to climate change.

Environmental analysis, health and toxicology, 35(4):e2020024-0.

There has been growing concern over the effects of heat waves on health. However, the effects of heat waves on the health of individuals in vulnerable groups have rarely been examined. We aimed to investigate the acute health effects of heat waves in elderly individuals living in rural areas and to survey their adaptation capacity. Repeated measurements of body temperature (BT), blood pressure, sleep disturbance, and indoor temperature were conducted up to six times for each of 104 elderly individuals living in rural areas of South Korea during the 2018 heat wave. Changes in BT, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) according to variations in indoor and outdoor temperature were analyzed using linear mixed effect models controlling for age, sex, smoking, and drug use. We also surveyed heat wave adaptation capacity, heat wave shelters, and self-reported health problems. The average indoor temperature measured during the study period was 30.5°C (range: 22.9-38.3°C) and that of ambient temperature was 30.6°C (range: 24.6-36.3°C). BT significantly increased with indoor and outdoor temperatures. The effect on BT was greater in elderly women and the elderly with hypertension. DBP generally decreased with increasing indoor temperature, though the correlation was only statistically significant among the elderly with hypertension. Only 22 (21.2%) individuals used air conditioners during the heat wave. Most did not use an air conditioner mainly to avoid high electricity costs. Of the participants, 58.7% reported experiencing sleep disturbance, which was the most frequent self-reported health problem. Elderly individuals living in rural areas are directly exposed to high temperatures during heat waves, and their vital signs are sensitive to increases in indoor temperature due to poor adaptation capacity. Well-designed strategies for alleviating health-related stress during heat waves are necessary.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Pang SEH, De Alban JDT, EL Webb (2021)

Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines.

Scientific reports, 11(1):276.

Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Høye TT, Loboda S, Koltz AM, et al (2021)

Nonlinear trends in abundance and diversity and complex responses to climate change in Arctic arthropods.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(2):.

Time series data on arthropod populations are critical for understanding the magnitude, direction, and drivers of change. However, most arthropod monitoring programs are short-lived and restricted in taxonomic resolution. Monitoring data from the Arctic are especially underrepresented, yet critical to uncovering and understanding some of the earliest biological responses to rapid environmental change. Clear imprints of climate on the behavior and life history of some Arctic arthropods have been demonstrated, but a synthesis of population-level abundance changes across taxa is lacking. We utilized 24 y of abundance data from Zackenberg in High-Arctic Greenland to assess trends in abundance and diversity and identify potential climatic drivers of abundance changes. Unlike findings from temperate systems, we found a nonlinear pattern, with total arthropod abundance gradually declining during 1996 to 2014, followed by a sharp increase. Family-level diversity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting increasing dominance of a small number of taxa. Total abundance masked more complicated trajectories of family-level abundance, which also frequently varied among habitats. Contrary to expectation in this extreme polar environment, winter and fall conditions and positive density-dependent feedbacks were more common determinants of arthropod dynamics than summer temperature. Together, these data highlight the complexity of characterizing climate change responses even in relatively simple Arctic food webs. Our results underscore the need for data reporting beyond overall trends in biomass or abundance and for including basic research on life history and ecology to achieve a more nuanced understanding of the sensitivity of Arctic and other arthropods to global changes.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Raven PH, DL Wagner (2021)

Agricultural intensification and climate change are rapidly decreasing insect biodiversity.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(2):.

Major declines in insect biomass and diversity, reviewed here, have become obvious and well documented since the end of World War II. Here, we conclude that the spread and intensification of agriculture during the past half century is directly related to these losses. In addition, many areas, including tropical mountains, are suffering serious losses because of climate change as well. Crops currently occupy about 11% of the world's land surface, with active grazing taking place over an additional 30%. The industrialization of agriculture during the second half of the 20th century involved farming on greatly expanded scales, monoculturing, the application of increasing amounts of pesticides and fertilizers, and the elimination of interspersed hedgerows and other wildlife habitat fragments, all practices that are destructive to insect and other biodiversity in and near the fields. Some of the insects that we are destroying, including pollinators and predators of crop pests, are directly beneficial to the crops. In the tropics generally, natural vegetation is being destroyed rapidly and often replaced with export crops such as oil palm and soybeans. To mitigate the effects of the Sixth Mass Extinction event that we have caused and are experiencing now, the following will be necessary: a stable (and almost certainly lower) human population, sustainable levels of consumption, and social justice that empowers the less wealthy people and nations of the world, where the vast majority of us live, will be necessary.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Halsch CA, Shapiro AM, Fordyce JA, et al (2021)

Insects and recent climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(2):.

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

RevDate: 2021-01-12

Agudelo A, Carvajal M, MDC Martinez-Ballesta (2021)

Halophytes of the Mediterranean Basin-Underutilized Species with the Potential to Be Nutritious Crops in the Scenario of the Climate Change.

Foods (Basel, Switzerland), 10(1): pii:foods10010119.

Halophyte plants are adapted to saline environments and represent a novel type of crops given their possible uses at both culinary and industrial levels. In this work, the nutritional quality of different Mediterranean halophyte species, Atriplex halimus, Salicornia fruticosa, and Cakile maritima, was evaluated under conditions of high salinity. For this, plants were grown at different NaCl concentrations (0, 100, 200, and 300 mM) and the contents of proteins, total lipids, polyphenols, and mineral elements were analyzed as well as growth. Of the three species, C. maritima was the most sensitive to salt stress and therefore showed the highest phenolic compounds content. By contrast, whereas salinity increased the amounts of proteins and phenolics with respect to the control in A. halimus and S. fruticosa, it decreased them in C. maritima. Plants of A. halimus accumulated higher amounts of Na+ in their leaves, but the level of this ion, considering human consumption, was below that of other culinary halophyte species. In conclusion, all the results indicate that these three halophyte species grown at high salt levels represent optimal crops for-new foodstuff-production as green salt or spice due to their nutritional potential.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Zhao W, Yu X, Jiao C, et al (2020)

Increased association between climate change and vegetation index variation promotes the coupling of dominant factors and vegetation growth.

The Science of the total environment, 767:144669 pii:S0048-9697(20)38200-0 [Epub ahead of print].

Vegetation productivity dynamics are closely related to climate change, and water availability determines vegetation growth in water-limited ecosystems. Nevertheless, how changes in the interactions between climatic factors and vegetation activity variation regulate the relationship between their trends remains unclear. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an effective proxy of vegetation growth. First, we investigated the NDVI trends, and the results revealed a vegetation activity with weaker greening and greater spatial heterogeneity after an obvious land-cover breakpoint in 1999 compared with that before 1999 in northwest China. Notably, the Loess Plateau greatly led the greenness trends, but the Tibet Plateau showed mean browning after 1999, which implied that the coupling of climate change and vegetation trends varied with spatio-temporal changes. Subsequently, using the Geographical Detector Method (GDM), we quantified and compared the association between climate change and the interannual variability of NDVI in the two stages. Vegetation productivity variation is more closely related to changes in climatic factors after 1999 compared with that before 1999. Precipitation (PPT) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) are the primary constraints to vegetation growth in both stages. Patterns in NDVI trend increases are consistent with those of increased PPT and decreased VPD and vice versa after 1999. However, the same patterns were not observed before 1999 because of the weak association between climate change and NDVI variation. This implicated a great significance of the association between climate change and changes in vegetation activity for the prediction of potential carbon sequestration due to the shift of dominant factors and their trends under future climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Musacchio A, Andrade L, O'Neill E, et al (2021)

Planning for the health impacts of climate change: Flooding, private groundwater contamination and waterborne infection - A cross-sectional study of risk perception, experience and behaviours in the Republic of Ireland.

Environmental research pii:S0013-9351(21)00001-3 [Epub ahead of print].

The frequency and severity of flooding events will increase over the coming decades due to global climate change. While close attention has typically been paid to infrastructural and environmental outcomes of flood events, the potential adverse human health consequences associated with post-event consumption from private groundwater sources have received minimal attention, leading to a poor understanding of private well users' preparedness and the drivers of positive behavioural adoption. The current study sought to quantify the capacity of private well users to cope with flood-triggered contamination risks and identify the social psychological determinants of proactive attitudes in the Republic of Ireland, using a cross-sectional questionnaire incorporating two distinct models of health behaviour, the Health Belief Model and Risk-Attitude-Norms-Ability-Self Regulation model. Adoption of healthy behaviours prior to flooding was evaluated with respect to respondents' risk exposure, risk experience and risk perception, in addition to systematic supply stewardship under normal conditions. Associations between adoption of protective behaviours and perception, experience and socio-demographic factors were evaluated through multinomial and multiple logistic regressions, while a multi-model inferential approach was employed with the predictors of health behaviour models. Findings suggest that floods are not considered likely to occur, nor were respondents worried about their occurrence, with 72.5% of respondents who reported previous flooding experience failing to adopt protective actions. Prior experience of well water contamination increased adoption of proactive attitudes when flooding occurred (+47%), with a failure to adopt healthy behaviours higher among rural non-agricultural residents (136%). Low levels of preparedness to deal with flood-related contamination risks are a side-effect of the general lack of appropriate well stewardship under normal conditions; just 10.1% of respondents adopted both water treatment and frequent testing, in concurrence with limited risk perception and poor awareness of the nexus between risk factors (e.g. floods, contamination sources) and groundwater quality. Perceived risk, personal norms and social norms were the best predictors of protective behaviour adoption and should be considered when developing future awareness campaigns.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Lauringson M, Nousiainen I, Kahar S, et al (2021)

Climate change-driven disease in sympatric hosts: Temporal dynamics of parasite burden and proliferative kidney disease in wild brown trout and Atlantic salmon.

Journal of fish diseases [Epub ahead of print].

Global climate change is altering the abundance and spread of various parasites, which has important consequences not only for host-parasite interactions but also for the relationships between different host species. Here, we focus on the myxozoan endoparasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae that causes temperature-dependent proliferative kidney disease (PKD) in salmonids. We characterized the temporal changes in the parasite load and the severity of PKD signs (renal hyperplasia, haematocrit) in two sympatric populations of wild brown trout (Salmo trutta) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We found that both the parasite load and disease signs vary considerably between individuals, species, rivers and sampling periods. We showed that Atlantic salmon was able to slow down the initial parasite proliferation rate and subsequently tolerate high parasite burden without obvious disease signs. In contrast, the initial parasite proliferation rate was much higher in brown trout, which was followed by the development of severe PKD signs. Thus, the speed of parasite proliferation, rather than the absolute number of the parasites in the host kidney, may play an important role in interspecific variation in PKD susceptibility. To conclude, this study illustrates the usefulness of temporal perspective for understanding host defence mechanisms and climate change-mediated impacts in the wild.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Lawrence D, Palmisano A, MW de Gruchy (2021)

Collapse and continuity: A multi-proxy reconstruction of settlement organization and population trajectories in the Northern Fertile Crescent during the 4.2kya Rapid Climate Change event.

PloS one, 16(1):e0244871 pii:PONE-D-20-30893.

The rise and fall of ancient societies have been attributed to rapid climate change events. One of the most discussed of these is the 4.2kya event, a period of increased aridity and cooling posited as the cause of societal changes across the globe, including the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Studies seeking to correlate social and climatic changes around the 4.2kya event have tended to focus either on highly localized analyses of specific sites or surveys or more synthetic overviews at pan-continental scales, and temporally on the event and its aftermath. Here we take an empirical approach at a large spatial scale to investigate trends in population and settlement organization across the entirety of Northern Fertile Crescent (Northern Mesopotamia and the Northern Levant) from 6,000 to 3,000 cal BP. We use Summed Probability Distributions of radiocarbon dates and data from eighteen archaeological surveys as proxies for population, and a dataset of all settlements over ten hectares in size as a proxy for the degree of urbanization. The goal is to examine the spatial and temporal impact of the 4.2kya event and to contextualize it within longer term patterns of settlement. We find that negative trends are visible during the event horizon in all three proxies. However, these occur against a long-term trend of increased population and urbanization supported through unsustainable overshoot and the exploitation of a drier zone with increased risk of crop failure. We argue that the 4.2kya event occurred during a period of unprecedented urban and rural growth which may have been unsustainable even without an exogenous climate forcing.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Anderson V, Leung ACW, Mehdipoor H, et al (2021)

Technological opportunities for sensing of the health effects of weather and climate change: a state-of-the-art-review.

International journal of biometeorology pii:10.1007/s00484-020-02063-z [Epub ahead of print].

Sensing and measuring meteorological and physiological parameters of humans, animals, and plants are necessary to understand the complex interactions that occur between atmospheric processes and the health of the living organisms. Advanced sensing technologies have provided both meteorological and biological data across increasingly vast spatial, spectral, temporal, and thematic scales. Information and communication technologies have reduced barriers to data dissemination, enabling the circulation of information across different jurisdictions and disciplines. Due to the advancement and rapid dissemination of these technologies, a review of the opportunities for sensing the health effects of weather and climate change is necessary. This paper provides such an overview by focusing on existing and emerging technologies and their opportunities and challenges for studying the health effects of weather and climate change on humans, animals, and plants.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Shrestha S, Barratt A, Fox NJ, et al (2020)

Financial Impacts of Liver Fluke on Livestock Farms Under Climate Change-A Farm Level Assessment.

Frontiers in veterinary science, 7:564795.

Liver fluke infection (fascioliasis) is a parasitic disease which affects the health and welfare of ruminants. It is a concern for the livestock industry and is considered as a growing threat to the industry because changing climatic conditions are projected to be more favorable to increased frequency and intensity of liver fluke outbreaks. Recent reports highlighted that the incidence and geographic range of liver fluke has increased in the UK over the last decade and estimated to increase the average risk of liver fluke in the UK due to increasing temperature and rainfall. This paper explores financial impacts of the disease with and without climate change effects on Scottish livestock farms using a farm-level economic model. The model is based on farming system analysis and uses linear programming technique to maximize farm net profit within farm resources. Farm level data from a sample of 160 Scottish livestock farms is used under a no disease baseline scenario and two disease scenarios (with and without climate change). These two disease scenarios are compared with the baseline scenario to estimate the financial impact of the disease at farm levels. The results suggest a 12% reduction in net profit on an average dairy farm compared to 6% reduction on an average beef farm under standard disease conditions. The losses increase by 2-fold on a dairy farm and 6-fold on a beef farm when climate change effects are included with disease conditions on farms. There is a large variability within farm groups with profitable farms incurring relatively lesser economic losses than non-profitable farms. There is a substantial increase in number of vulnerable farms both in dairy (+20%) and beef farms (+27%) under the disease alongside climate change conditions.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Morelli TL, Barrows CW, Ramirez AR, et al (2020)

Climate-change refugia: biodiversity in the slow lane.

Frontiers in ecology and the environment, 18(5):228-234.

Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

RevDate: 2021-01-11

Singh RK, Singh A, Zander KK, et al (2021)

Measuring successful processes of knowledge co-production for managing climate change and associated environmental stressors: Adaptation policies and practices to support Indian farmers.

Journal of environmental management pii:S0301-4797(20)31604-2 [Epub ahead of print].

Poor access to external resources, and a lack of affordable technologies compatible with socio-economic and ecological settings of rural livelihoods lead to high vulnerability of subsistence farmers to climate change and associated environmental stressors. Traditional knowledge (TK) plays a pivotal role in improving the adaptive capacity of such farmers to cope with these stressors. In India, most of the policies aiming to improve farmers' adaptive capacity are based on a top-down approach and barely consider farmers' TK. Policies can be made more inclusive by mainstreaming stakeholders' perspectives, an approach termed as knowledge co-production. Our study uses a knowledge co-production framework to (i) assess the current state of emphasis on TK and knowledge co-production processes in Indian policies on agricultural adaptation to climate change and associated environmental stressors, (ii) understand the status of TK-led knowledge co-production at the practice level, and (iii) assess the successes and gaps in incorporating TK in agricultural adaptation at the policy and practice levels to manage these stressors. Based on a systematic literature review, we found that despite emphasis on integration of TK, no Indian policy was successful in terms of stakeholder participation and in covering various dimensions of knowledge co-production. Most of the policies covered either two (knowledge gathering and application) or three (gathering, integration and application) dimensions. The term TK was also not clearly defined and it was unclear how to mainstream it into the process for successful outcomes. Co-production process was adjudged to be fairly successful at the practice level in some of the sectors (e.g., management of soil and water resources) where most of the dimensions were covered and stakeholders participated in various steps of co-production. There were significant differences in the success of co-production within (e.g., crop varieties) and between (e.g., crop and natural resource management) the sectors. We found a considerable gap at policy and practice levels on success of knowledge co-production. Insights from the study could help policy-makers to improve policies for the agricultural sector to better adapt to climate change and associated environmental stressors through the recognition and integration of farmers' TK.

RevDate: 2021-01-09

Ellis CJ, S Eaton (2021)

Microclimates hold the key to spatial forest planning under climate change: cyanolichens in temperate rainforest.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

There is deepening interest in how microclimatic refugia can reduce species threat, if suitable climatic conditions are maintained locally, despite global climate change. Microclimates are a particularly important consideration in topographically heterogeneous landscapes, while in some habitats, such as forests and woodlands, microclimates are also extremely labile and affected by management practices that could consequently be used to offset climate change impact. This study explored a conservation priority guild - cyanolichen epiphytes in temperate rainforest - quantifying the niche response to macroclimate, and landscape or woodland stand structures that determine the microclimate. Based on epiphyte survey in a core region of European temperate rainforest (western Scotland), a 'random forest' machine-learning model confirmed a strong cyanolichen response to summer dryness, as well as the effects of distance to running water, topographic heatload, and tree species identity, which modify the local moisture regime and/or lichen growth rates. By quantifying this response to macroclimate, landscape and stand structures, it was possible to estimate an extent to which woodland may be expanded in the future, in order to offset a negative effect of increasing summer dryness projected through to the 2080s. Using current policy as a yardstick, sufficient woodland expansion could be delivered relatively quickly for median impacted sites, but with times to woodland delivery extending over 10 years, 20 years and 25 years for sites at the 75th , 90th and 95th percentiles of cyanolichen decline. Furthermore, the extent of new woodland required, and delivery times, increase almost threefold on average, as new woodland becomes distributed over wider riparian zones. These contrasting implications emphasise an urgent need for afforestation that achieves targeted spatial planning responsive to microclimates as refugia.

RevDate: 2021-01-09

Ettinger AK, Buonaiuto DM, Chamberlain CJ, et al (2021)

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change.

The New phytologist [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g., advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g., range ex pansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages (`experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses-affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod-shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season (`spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 hours of change for expected temporal versus one minute for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where, and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-09

Massel K, Lam Y, Wong ACS, et al (2021)

Hotter, drier, CRISPR: the latest edit on climate change.

TAG. Theoretical and applied genetics. Theoretische und angewandte Genetik [Epub ahead of print].

KEY MESSAGE: Integrating CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing into modern breeding programs for crop improvement in cereals. Global climate trends in many agricultural regions have been rapidly changing over the past decades, and major advances in global food systems are required to ensure food security in the face of these emerging challenges. With increasing climate instability due to warmer temperatures and rising CO2 levels, the productivity of global agriculture will continue to be negatively impacted. To combat these growing concerns, creative approaches will be required, utilising all the tools available to produce more robust and tolerant crops with increased quality and yields under more extreme conditions. The integration of genome editing and transgenics into current breeding strategies is one promising solution to accelerate genetic gains through targeted genetic modifications, producing crops that can overcome the shifting climate realities. This review focuses on how revolutionary genome editing tools can be directly implemented into breeding programs for cereal crop improvement to rapidly counteract many of the issues affecting agriculture production in the years to come.

RevDate: 2021-01-09

Weinert M, Mathis M, Kröncke I, et al (2020)

Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea.

Marine environmental research pii:S0141-1136(20)30997-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-08

Gilbert L (2021)

The Impacts of Climate Change on Ticks and Tick-Borne Disease Risk.

Annual review of entomology, 66:373-388.

Ticks exist on all continents and carry more zoonotic pathogens than any other type of vector. Ticks spend most of their lives in the external environment away from the host and are thus expected to be affected by changes in climate. Most empirical and theoretical studies demonstrate or predict range shifts or increases in ticks and tick-borne diseases, but there can be a lot of heterogeneity in such predictions. Tick-borne disease systems are complex, and determining whether changes are due to climate change or other drivers can be difficult. Modeling studies can help tease apart and understand the roles of different drivers of change. Predictive models can also be invaluable in projecting changes according to different climate change scenarios. However, validating these models remains challenging, and estimating uncertainty in predictions is essential. Another focus for future research should be assessing the resilience of ticks and tick-borne pathogens to climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-08

Pfadt-Trilling AR, Volk TA, MP Fortier (2021)

Climate Change Impacts of Electricity Generated at a Waste-to-Energy Facility.

Environmental science & technology [Epub ahead of print].

Waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities combust both biogenic and nonbiogenic materials comprising municipal solid waste (MSW) in addition to managing waste, leading to a lack of clarity on the life cycle climate change impact (LCCCI) as an electricity generator. In order to investigate the LCCCI of this resource, a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) of a WTE facility in Jamesville, NY, was performed utilizing system expansion to account for avoided landfilling emissions, additional metals recycling, and the loss of potential electricity generation from landfill gas. The LCCCI of electricity from this WTE facility ranges from 0.664 to 0.951 kg CO2eq/kWh before system expansion, which reduced the impact to -0.280 to 0.593 kg CO2eq/kWh when accounting for avoided waste management emissions. Combustion is the leading contributor of GHG emissions from cradle-to-gate, and sensitivity analysis indicates that the nonbiogenic fraction of the waste most significantly influences the LCCCI before including cobenefits. The fraction of methane from landfills that is not captured is the most influential variable under system expansion. Before system expansion, the LCCCI of this system is comparable to that of electricity from fossil fuels. With system expansion, the LCCCI ranges from below that of renewable energy to comparable to natural gas based electricity. These results disagree with claims in the reviewed literature that WTE can avoid GHG emissions overall, although avoided emissions reduce the magnitude of its impact.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Kc S, Shrestha S, Ninsawat S, et al (2021)

Predicting flood events in Kathmandu Metropolitan City under climate change and urbanisation.

Journal of environmental management, 281:111894 pii:S0301-4797(20)31819-3 [Epub ahead of print].

Urbanisation and climate change collectively impose the threat of urban flood. The impervious transformation and changes in local climatic conditions increase the risk of frequent pluvial flooding in Kathmandu. Therefore, this study aims to assess the integrated impact of urbanisation and climate change on pluvial flooding in Kathmandu Metropolitan City, using the Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model. The future daily rainfall from three Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the observed daily data has been disaggregated to hourly series using temporal rainfall disaggregation. The result shows that the combined impact on pluvial flood is likely to intensify with relatively more contribution from climate change. The CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM under the RCP 4.5 scenario projects the maximum increase (60-90%) in flood volume for current (75%) and extreme (90%) imperviousness, under a 2-year and 20-year return period (RP) with the extent of the flood area increasing more than the depth. For a 2-year RP, areas with a depth of 0.10-0.25 m are likely to expand while those from 0.25 to 0.40 m in depth are projected to have more velocity, and these trends are expected to be magnified for higher RPs. The study shows that even though urbanisation contributes less to urban pluvial flood, it can be a catalyst for exaggerating other factors and implementing management measures. For instance, the application of small-scale rainwater harvesting, and overflow storage reduced the runoff, thereby reducing the flood volume by 20-35%. Furthermore, the findings highlight the need for planning management strategies such as evaluation and upgrading of conventional drainage systems with low impact measures (rainwater harvesting and green roofs); technical and financial assistance to urban dwellers in adopting the management measures or a combination of them based on the location, requirements, and availability of information and resources to reduce the effects of pluvial flood in Kathmandu.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Ali S, Haixing Z, Qi M, et al (2021)

Monitoring drought events and vegetation dynamics in relation to climate change over mainland China from 1983 to 2016.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Due to the present drought events and dynamics of vegetation, the circumstances in mainland China could become even more serious. Therefore, we study the impact of drought on vegetation trends in mainland China, with the aim of discovering the temporal and spatial differences in vegetation dynamics caused by seasonal drought. Our method is based on the use of data from the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1983 to 2016 and temperature and precipitation data from Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA's MERRA). Due to the sparse vegetation and low drought, NDVI is the most useful for describing drought conditions in mainland China. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, VCI, TVDI, and NAP from April to October increased rapidly, while the NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI are stable every month in September, improve again in October, and then show in December a downward trend. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI monthly values indicate that mainland China suffered from severe drought in 1984 and 1993, which lasted until 2007, which were the most drought years. For monitoring drought in mainland China, the NDVI, TVDI, NAP, VCI, and NVSWI values were selected as a tool for reporting drought events during different growing seasons. The seasonal values of TVDI, NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, and VCI confirmed that mainland China suffered from severe drought in 1984, 1993, and 2007 and led the durations of severe drought. Spatial correlation is generated between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI. The correlation between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NAP, and VCI showed a significantly positive correlation while significantly negative correlation between NVSWI and TVDI, TVDI and VHI, which showed a good indication for the assessment of drought, especially for the agricultural regions of mainland China. This shows that the positive sign to support NAP, NVSWI, and TVDI is a good monitoring of the drought indices. During the summer, it appears that compared to the southeastern part of mainland China, drought is more likely to occur in the northwestern areas. There is no doubt that these drought indices are comprehensive indicators of monitoring drought events in mainland China.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Nigg C, CR Nigg (2021)

It's more than climate change and active transport-physical activity's role in sustainable behavior.

Translational behavioral medicine pii:6067283 [Epub ahead of print].

Considering the interdependence of human's and nature's health within the planetary health concept, we evaluated how physical activity (PA) can be conceptualized as sustainable behavior (SuB) and how PA relates to other types of SuBs within the United Nations' sustainable development goal (SDG) framework. Regarding social SDGs, PA contributes to improving malnutrition (SDG 2), health behaviors (SDG 3), education (SDG 4), reducing inequalities (SDG 10), sustainable cities (SDG 12), and peace (SDG 16). For ecological SDGs, PA contributes to sustainable consumption (SDG 11) and combating climate change (SDG 13). Therefore, PA is more than a health behavior, it contributes to planetary health and sustainable development. However, caution is warranted as PA also has the potential to contribute and reinforce unsustainability. Thus, PA as a SuB requires an own research agenda, investigating (a) PA as social and ecological SuB, (b) sustainable PA promotion, (c) sustainable PA measurement, (d) common underlying constructs of PA and SuB, and (e) technology's role to assess and promote PA and SuB.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Pareek A, Joshi R, Gupta KJ, et al (2020)

Sensing and signalling in plant stress responses: ensuring sustainable food security in an era of climate change.

The New phytologist, 228(3):823-827.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Warsame AA, Sheik-Ali IA, Ali AO, et al (2021)

Climate change and crop production nexus in Somalia: an empirical evidence from ARDL technique.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

The purpose of this research examination is to ascertain the effect of climate change, measured rainfall, temperature, and CO2, on crop production by using data spanning from 1985 to 2016 in Somalia. ARDL bounds testing approach and Granger causality were employed to model the long-run and short-run cointegrations and the causality directions respectively of the scrutinized variables. The empirical results of the study found a long cointegration between the variables. It revealed that rainfall improves crop production in the long-run but hampers in the short-run, whereas temperature has adverse effect on crop production both in the long and short runs. But carbon dioxide emissions do not have any significant effect on crop production. Among other determinants, agriculture labour and land under cereal cultivation have a negative and positive impact on crop productivity in the long-run, respectively. In contrast, unidirectional causality is observed from agriculture and land under cereal cultivation to temperature, while another unidirectional causality is established from carbon dioxide emission to land under cereal cultivation. Hence, the policymakers should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the already felt effect of the changing climate on the agriculture sector to rebuild resilient and sustainable agriculture production in Somalia.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Balsara S, Jain PK, A Ramesh (2021)

An integrated methodology to overcome barriers to climate change mitigation strategies: a case of the cement industry in India.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Cement is a basic requirement of today's society and is the only thing that humans consume more volume than water, but cement manufacturing is the most energy- and emission-intensive process. Hence, the cement industry is currently under pressure to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Climate change mitigation strategies implemented in the industry leads to GHGs reduction, climate risks, pollutants, and another adverse impact on the environment. In order to implement climate change mitigation strategies in the cement industry, a careful analysis of barriers that hinder the emission reduction must be taken. However, most existing research on the barriers to mitigation measures is focused on developed countries. Among the most important emerging economies, India, the second-largest producer and consumer of cement, faces challenges to implement emission reduction measures. To bridge this gap, this paper identifies and evaluates the barriers and solutions to overcome these barriers in the context of India. This study employs a three-phase methodology based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) to identify barriers and solutions to overcome these barriers to climate change mitigation strategies adoption in Indian cement industry. Fuzzy AHP is employed to prioritize these barriers, and to rank solutions of these barriers, Fuzzy TOPSIS is employed. Ten Indian cement manufacturing industry is taken to illustrate the proposed three-phase methodology. Finally, the result of the analysis offers an effective decision support tool to the Indian cement industry to eliminate and overcome barriers to mitigation strategies adoption and build their green image in the market.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Paterson RRM (2021)

Longitudinal trends of future climate change and oil palm growth: empirical evidence for tropical Africa.

Environmental science and pollution research international [Epub ahead of print].

Palms are highly significant tropical plants. Oil palms produce palm oil, the basic commodity of a highly important industry. Climate change from greenhouse gasses is likely to decrease the ability of palms to survive, irrespective of them providing ecosystem services to communities. Little information about species survival in tropical regions under climate change is available and data on species migration under climate change is important. Palms are particularly significant in Africa: a palm oil industry already exists with Nigeria being the largest producer. Previous work using CLIMEX modelling indicated that Africa will have reduced suitable climate for oil palm in Africa. The current paper employs this modelling to assess how suitable climate for growing oil palm changed in Africa from current time to 2100. An increasing trend in suitable climate from west to east was observed indicating that refuges could be obtained along the African tropical belt. Most countries had reduced suitable climates but others had increased, with Uganda being particularly high. There may be a case for developing future oil palm plantations towards the east of Africa. The information may be usefully applied to other palms. However, it is crucial that any developments will fully adhere to environmental regulations. Future climate change will have severe consequences to oil palm cultivation but there may be scope for eastwards mitigation in Africa.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Kwembeya EG (2021)

Tracking biological footprints of climate change using flowering phenology of the geophytes: Pancratium tenuifolium and Scadoxus multiflorus.

International journal of biometeorology [Epub ahead of print].

Drought-adapted geophytes are responding to the effects of climate change in arid and semi-arid environments. In this study, herbarium and historical rainfall data were used to examine the impact of rainfall changes on flowering trends of Pancratium tenuifolium Hochst. ex A.Rich and Scadoxus multiflorus (Martyn) Raf. subsp. multiflorus. Flowering was delayed by approximately 7 days per decade for P. tenuifolium during the period 1930 to 2018 and by approximately 14 days per decade for S. multiflorus subsp. multiflorus during the period 1924 to 2008. Scadoxus multiflorus subsp. multiflorus delayed the day of flowering by approximately 0.3 days per millimetre increase of rainfall, with Pancratium tenuifolium showing a non-significant response to summer rainfall during the same period. Overall, a linear mixed-effects model revealed that the day of flowering was delayed by approximately 8 days per degree rise in latitude and advanced by approximately 9 days per degree rise in longitude. Additionally, summer rainfall had significant effects on the day of flowering with a 1-mm increase in summer rainfall delaying the day of flowering by approximately 0.16 days. These changes in flowering times may ultimately alter the distribution of geophytes in Namibia.

RevDate: 2021-01-06

Ebi KL, Vanos J, Baldwin JW, et al (2021)

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications.

Annual review of public health [Epub ahead of print].

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

RevDate: 2021-01-06

Zhang H, Ali S, Ma Q, et al (2021)

Remote sensing strategies to characterization of drought, vegetation dynamics in relation to climate change from 1983 to 2016 in Tibet and Xinjiang Province, China.

Environmental science and pollution research international pii:10.1007/s11356-020-12124-w [Epub ahead of print].

Due to various land cover changes, vegetation dynamics, and climate, drought is the most complex climate-related disaster problem in Tibet and Xinjiang, China. The purpose of the present study is to analyze the performance of the AVHRR Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the temporal and spatial differences of seasonal vegetation dynamics by correlating the results with rainfall and temperature data of NASA's MERRA to examine the vegetation dynamics and droughts in Tibet and the Xinjiang Province of China. Our method is based on the use of AVHRR NDVI data and NASA MERRA temperature and precipitation during 1983-2016. Due to the dryness and low vegetation, NDVI is more useful to describe the drought conditions in Tibet and Xinjiang of China. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, VCI, TVDI, and NAP from April to October increased rapidly. While the NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI are stable every month in September, again improve in October, and then confirm downward trend in December. The NDVI, TCI, VHI, NVSWI, NAP, VCI, and TVDI monthly values indicate that Tibet and Xinjiang province of China suffered from severe drought in 2006, 2008, and 2012 which were the most drought years. For monitoring drought in Tibet and Xinjiang province of China, the NDVI, TVDI, NAP, VCI, and NVSWI values were selected as a tool for reporting drought events during different growing seasons. Seasonal values of TVDI, NDVI, NAP, NVSWI, and VCI confirmed that Tibet and Xinjiang province of China suffered from severe drought in 2006, 2008, and 2012 and led the durations of severe drought. The correlation between NDVI, TCI, VHI, NAP, TVDI, and VCI showed a significantly positive correlation, while the significantly negative correlation between NVSWI and NDVI showed a good indication for the assessment of drought, especially for the agricultural regions of Tibet and Xinjiang province of China. This shows that the positive sign to support NAP, NVSWI, and TVDI is good monitoring of the drought indexes in Tibet and the Xinjiang province of China.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Ferguson K (2020)

The Health Reframing of Climate Change and the Poverty of Narrow Bioethics.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 48(4):705-717.

We must resist thoroughly reframing climate change as a health issue. For human health-centric ethical frameworks omit dimensions of value that we must duly consider. We need a new, an environmental, research ethic, one that we can use to more completely and impartially evaluate proposed research on mitigation and adaptation strategies.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Ganesh C, Schmeltz M, J Smith (2020)

Introduction Climate Change and the Legal, Ethical, and Health Issues Facing Healthcare and Public Health Systems.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 48(4):636-642.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Johnson WG (2020)

Using Precision Public Health to Manage Climate Change: Opportunities, Challenges, and Health Justice.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 48(4):681-693.

Amid public health concerns over climate change, "precision public health" (PPH) is emerging in next generation approaches to practice. These novel methods promise to augment public health operations by using ever larger and more robust health datasets combined with new tools for collecting and analyzing data. Precision strategies to protecting the public health could more effectively or efficiently address the systemic threats of climate change, but may also propagate or exacerbate health disparities for the populations most vulnerable in a changing climate. How PPH interventions collect and aggregate data, decide what to measure, and analyze data pose potential issues around privacy, neglecting social determinants of health, and introducing algorithmic bias into climate responses. Adopting a health justice framework, guided by broader social and climate justice tenets, can reveal principles and policy actions which may guide more responsible implementation of PPH in climate responses.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Krueger J, B Lawton (2020)

The Natural Environment as an Object of Public Health Law: Addressing Health Outcomes of Climate Change through Intersections with Environmental and Agricultural Law.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 48(4):664-680.

The power to change the natural environment has received relatively little attention in public health law, yet is a core concern within environmental and agricultural law. Examples from environmental and agricultural law may inform efforts to change the natural environment in order to reduce the health impacts of climate change. Public health lawyers who attend to the natural environment may succeed in elevating health concerns within the environmental and agricultural law spheres, while gaining new tools for their public health law toolbox.

RevDate: 2021-01-07

Halabi SF (2020)

Adaptation of Animal and Human Health Surveillance Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases Accompanying Climate Change.

The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, 48(4):694-704.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing temperature rise in temperate zones resulting in climate conditions more similar to subtropical zones. As a result, rising temperatures increase the range of disease-carrying insects to new areas outside of subtropical zones, and increased precipitation causes flooding that is more hospitable for vector breeding. State governments, the federal government, and governmental agencies, like the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) of USDA and the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS) of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lack a coordinated plan for vector-borne disease accompanying climate change. APHIS focuses its surveillance primarily on the effect of illness on agricultural production, while NNDSS focuses on the emergence of pathogens affecting human health. This article provides an analysis of the current framework of surveillance of, and response to, vector-borne infectious diseases, the impacts of climate change on the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases, and recommends changes to federal law to address these threats.

RevDate: 2021-01-06

Golshan T, Lande S, Nickfardjam K, et al (2021)

Thermal Comfort in School Classes in the Era of Global Warming: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

The Journal of school health [Epub ahead of print].

BACKGROUND: We investigated adolescents' feelings of thermal comfort during the educational process in various geographical locations far apart and present recommendations for the adjustment of the thermal environment in schools.

METHODS: The prospective international multicenter study took place in 8 locations on different continents. The survey in the form of a questionnaire was carried out among 2800 healthy high school students. The study was divided into "cold season survey," "warm-season survey," and heat wave survey.

RESULTS: The statistically significant difference between the "cold season survey" score of 4.04 (discomfort) and "warm-season survey" score of 3.47 (slight discomfort) (p = .04) indicates that students feel more thermal discomfort during winter months in all 8 locations. The heat wave survey score was 4.53 (discomfort). During the cold season, 29.24% of high school students felt themselves in full thermal comfort and 76.48% of the students felt themselves relatively comfortable (slightly cool-comfortable-slightly warm).

CONCLUSIONS: Even during the ongoing process of climate change, the cold season discomfort remains the main problem for students in classes. This tendency is present in different continents as a universal problem. We recommend keeping an entrance hall and classroom temperatures at different levels and to advise students about proper clothing.

RevDate: 2021-01-06

Gorji S, A Gorji (2021)

COVID-19 pandemic: the possible influence of the long-term ignorance about climate change.

In addressing the current COVID-19 pandemic and evaluating the measures taken by global leaders so far, it is crucial to trace back the circumstances influencing the emergence of the crisis that the world is presently facing. Could it be that the failure to act in a timely manner dates way back to when first concerns about climate change and its inevitable threat to human health came up? Multiple lines of evidence suggest that the large-scale and rapid environmental changes in the last few decades may be implicated in the emergence of COVID-19 pandemic by increasing the potential risk of the occurrence and the spread of zoonotic diseases, worsening food security, and weakening the human immune system. As we are facing progressive climatic change, a failure to act accordingly could inevitably lead to further, more frequent confrontations with newly emerging diseases.

RevDate: 2021-01-06

Liu H, Jacquemyn H, He X, et al (2021)

The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 10(1): pii:plants10010084.

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing'an Ling, Xiao Xing'an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

RevDate: 2021-01-05

Liu S, Xing J, Westervelt DM, et al (2020)

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China.

The Science of the total environment, 765:144338 pii:S0048-9697(20)37869-4 [Epub ahead of print].

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 μg m-3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 μg m-3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-05

Evensen D, Whitmarsh L, Bartie P, et al (2021)

Effect of "finite pool of worry" and COVID-19 on UK climate change perceptions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(3):.

Research reveals that a "finite pool of worry" constrains concern about and action on climate change. Nevertheless, a longitudinal panel survey of 1,858 UK residents, surveyed in April 2019 and June 2020, reveals little evidence for diminishing climate change concern during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, the sample identifies climate change as a bigger threat than COVID-19. The findings suggest climate change has become an intransigent concern within UK public consciousness.

RevDate: 2021-01-05

Salinas-Ramos VB, Agnelli P, Bosso L, et al (2020)

Body Size Variation in Italian Lesser Horseshoe Bats Rhinolophus hipposideros over 147 Years: Exploring the Effects of Climate Change, Urbanization and Geography.

Biology, 10(1): pii:biology10010016.

Body size in animals commonly shows geographic and temporal variations that may depend upon several environmental drivers, including climatic conditions, productivity, geography and species interactions. The topic of body size trends across time has gained momentum in recent years since this has been proposed as a third universal response to climate change along with changes in distribution and phenology. However, disentangling the genuine effects of climate change from those of other environmental factors is often far from trivial. In this study, we tested a set of hypotheses concerning body size variation across time and space in Italian populations of a rhinolophid bat, the lesser horseshoe bat Rhinolophus hipposideros. We examined forearm length (FAL) and cranial linear traits in a unique historical collection of this species covering years from 1869 to 2016, representing, to the best of our knowledge, the longest time series ever considered in a morphological assessment of a bat species. No temporal changes occurred, rejecting the hypotheses that body size varied in response to climate change or urbanization (light pollution). We found that FAL increased with latitude following a Bergmann's rule trend, whereas the width of upper incisors, likely a diet-related trait, showed an opposite pattern which awaits explanation. We also confirmed that FAL is sexually dimorphic in this species and ruled out that insularity has any detectable effect on the linear traits we considered. This suggests that positive responses of body size to latitude do not mean per se that concurring temporal responses to climate change are also expected. Further investigations should explore the occurrence of these patterns over larger spatial scales and more species in order to detect the existence of general patterns across time and space.

RevDate: 2021-01-05

Antolín MC, Toledo M, Pascual I, et al (2020)

The Exploitation of Local Vitis vinifera L. Biodiversity as a Valuable Tool to Cope with Climate Change Maintaining Berry Quality.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland), 10(1): pii:plants10010071.

(1) Background: The associated increase in global mean surface temperature together with raised atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is exerting a profound influence on grapevine development (phenology) and grape quality. The exploitation of the local genetic diversity based on the recovery of ancient varieties has been proposed as an interesting option to cope with climate change and maintaining grape quality. Therefore, this research aimed to characterize the potential fruit quality of genotypes from seven local old grapevine varieties grown under climate change conditions. (2) Methods: The study was carried out on fruit-bearing cuttings (one cluster per plant) that were grown in pots in temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG). Two treatments were applied from fruit set to maturity: (1) ambient CO2 (400 ppm) and temperature (T) (ACAT) and (2) elevated CO2 (700 ppm) and temperature (T + 4 °C) (ECET). (3) Results: Results showed that some of the old genotypes tested remained quite stable during the climate change conditions in terms of fruit quality (mainly, total soluble solids and phenolic content) and of must antioxidant properties. (4) Conclusion: This research underlines the usefulness of exploiting local grapevine diversity to cope with climate change successfully, although further studies under field conditions and with whole plants are needed before extrapolating the results to the vineyard.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Joshi M, Caceres J, Ko S, et al (2020)

Unprecedented: the toxic synergism of Covid-19 and climate change.

Current opinion in pulmonary medicine, Publish Ahead of Print: pii:00063198-900000000-98993 [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review and compare the constellations of causes and consequences of the two current pandemics, Covid-19 and climate change.

RECENT FINDINGS: There has been a transient counterbalancing, in which the response to Covid-19 has briefly mitigated pollution and greenhouse gasses. This divergence belies multiple commonalities of cause and effect.

SUMMARY: The convergence of these two pandemics is unprecedented. Although at first glance, they appear to be completely unrelated, they share striking commonalities. Both are caused by human behaviors, and some of those behaviors contribute to both pandemics at the same time. Both illustrate the fact that isolation is not an option; these are global issues that inescapably affect all persons and all nations. Both incur prodigious current and anticipated costs. Both have similar societal impacts, and disproportionately harm those with lesser resources, widening the gap between the 'haves and the have-nots.' One can only hope that the devastation caused by these unprecedented pandemics will lead to increased awareness of how human beings have helped to create them and how our responses can and will shape our future.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Kinney PL (2021)

How Can We Solve Our Air Quality Problem in the Face of Climate Change?.

JAMA network open, 4(1):e2035010 pii:2774525.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Frühauf A, Niedermeier M, M Kopp (2020)

Intention to Engage in Winter Sport in Climate Change Affected Environments.

Frontiers in public health, 8:598297.

Exercise, including winter sport activities, shows positive effects on physical and mental health, with additional benefits when participating in natural environments. Winter sport activities are particularly vulnerable to climate change, since global warming will decrease the duration and amount of snow. In the context of climate change in alpine environments, little is known on the determinants of winter sport behavior. Thus, the following study primarily aimed at comparing the effect of being exposed to a climate change affected scenario (CCA) or to a climate change unaffected scenario (CCU) on the intention to engage in recreational winter sport activities. Secondly, we aimed to analyze the role of anticipated affective responses during exercising based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). An experimental cross-sectional web-based study design was used. Participants were randomly allocated to pictures of either CCA or CCU. TPB variables and affective responses with regard to the displayed scenarios were assessed. Statistical analyses included Mann-Whitney-U Tests, linear regression, and mediation analyses. Significant group differences were seen in all TPB variables, p < 0.038; -0.13 < r < -0.30, as well as in affective responses, p < 0.001; -0.24 < r < -0.85. Lower intention to engage in winter sport activities and lower anticipated affective valence during exercising was found in CCA compared to CCU. Attitude toward winter sport was significantly positively associated with intention to engage in winter sport, beta = 0.66, p < 0.001. The effect of group allocation on attitude was mediated by anticipated affective valence, indirect effect = 0.37, p < 0.001. Intention to engage in recreational winter sport activities was lower in participants exposed to the climate change affected winter sport scenario. Since affective valence seems to influence attitude and consequently intention to exercise, the role of non-cognitive variables with regard to climate change related exposure should be considered in future studies. Therefore, winter sport resorts may consider altered winter sport behaviors due to the consequences of climate change as well as the importance of providing an optimal framework to enhance affective valence of their guests in order to mitigate potential changes in winter sports behavior.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Vtipil EE, SN Sheth (2020)

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of phenology in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.

Ecology and evolution, 10(24):14165-14177 pii:ECE37011.

Premise of the study: As global climate change alters drought regimes, rapid evolution of traits that facilitate adaptation to drought can rescue populations in decline. The evolution of phenological advancement can allow plant populations to escape drought, but evolutionary responses in phenology can vary across a species' range due to differences in drought intensity and standing genetic variation.

Methods: Mimulus cardinalis, a perennial herb spanning a broad climatic gradient, recently experienced a period of record drought. Here, we used a resurrection study comparing flowering time and stem height at first flower of pre-drought ancestors and post-drought descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations in a common environment to examine the evolution of drought escape across the latitudinal range.

Key results: Contrary to the hypothesis of the evolution of advanced phenology in response to recent drought, flowering time did not advance between ancestors and descendants in any population, though storage condition and maternal effects could have impacted these results. Stem height was positively correlated with flowering time, such that plants that flowered earlier were shorter at first flower. This correlation could constrain the evolution of earlier flowering time if selection favors flowering early at a large size.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that rapid evolution of phenology will not rescue these populations from recent climate change. Future work is needed to examine the potential for the evolution of alternative drought strategies and phenotypic plasticity to buffer M. cardinalis populations from changing climate.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Carvalho L, Gonçalves E, Amâncio S, et al (2020)

Selecting Aragonez Genotypes Able to Outplay Climate Change-Driven Abiotic Stress.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:599230.

High temperatures and extreme drought are increasingly more frequent in Portugal, which represents a strong threat to viticulture in certain regions of the country. These multifactorial abiotic stresses are threatening viticultural areas worldwide, and the problem can hardly be overcome only by changing cultural practices. This scenario has raised a major challenge for plant scientists to find ways to adapt existing varieties to the new conditions without loss of their characteristic flavors, yield, and associated varietal character of wines. Aragonez (syn. Tempranillo) is one such variety, widely cultivated in Portugal and Spain, with specific characteristics associated with terroir. In this context, insight into intravarietal variability to enable its exploitation for selection becomes an important tool to mitigate the effect of multifactorial stresses driven by climate changes. The present work describes an innovative selection approach: selection for abiotic stress tolerance, measured by the leaf temperature of clones under environmental conditions of drought and extreme heat. This evaluation was complemented with values of yield and quality characteristics of the must (pH, acidity, °Brix, and anthocyanins). The application of this methodology was done in an experimental population of 255 clones of Tempranillo for 3 years. The genotypes were then ranked according to their level of tolerance to abiotic stress without loss of yield/quality. To understand the differences at the transcription level that could account for such variability, several of the most tolerant and most sensitive genotypes were analyzed for key genes using reverse transcriptase-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The results enabled the selection of a group of genotypes with increased tolerance to stress, in relation to the average of the variety, which maintained the typical must quality of Aragonez. In parallel, several transcripts previously acknowledged as markers for abiotic stress tolerance were identified in several clones and are possible targets for plant breeding and genetic modification and/or to develop screening procedures to select genotypes better adapted to the abiotic stress driven by climate change.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Löfström E, Klöckner CA, IH Nesvold (2020)

Nature in Your Face - Disruptive Climate Change Communication and Eco-Visualization as Part of a Garden-Based Learning Approach Involving Primary School Children and Teachers in Co-creating the Future.

Frontiers in psychology, 11:568068.

The paper describes an innovative structured workshop methodology in garden-based-learning (GBL) called "Nature in Your Face" (NiYF) aimed at provoking a change in citizens behavior and engagement as a consequence of the emotional activation in response to disruptive artistic messages. The methodology challenges the assumption that the change needed to meet the carbon targets can be reached with incremental, non-invasive behavior engineering techniques such as nudging or gamification. Instead, it explores the potential of disruptive communication to push citizens out of their comfort zones and into creative modes of re-creating futures. This is done by confronting us with consequences of consumption by means of art and eco-visualizations. The aim being to achieve awareness, mental flexibility, and spurring debate. Thus, we invite them to react - and act upon these reactions by communicating their feelings or thoughts. This is used as an entrance point for broader and/or deeper engagement in a structured three-step methodology; (1) Framing: A disruptive element is introduced into the local environment. This triggers an emotional reaction, which then is taken up in a process of framing the problem and working with solutions. (2) Twisting: in a guided process, the initial energy from the emotional confrontation is twisted into a creative exploration of innovative solutions, from the perspective of the children. (3) Using: The last stage is using the developed solutions in the local social system (or refining them further). The methodology is being applied in cooperation with a primary school, and is iteratively adjusted and evaluated in a formative, action-research based approach scenario. NiYF is to stimulate societal engagement through deliberately confronting stakeholders with unexpected and potentially upsetting appearances of nature, climate effects, or carbon-neutral lifestyle scenarios. We have verified the practical usefulness and potential of the methodology and found that NiYF triggers societal engagement and transition, negotiating responsibilities and unlocking action potentials. We also found that eco-anxiety, denial, self-efficacy and cognitive dissonance form children's understanding of plastic. The project marks a paradigm shift from creating knowledge to using knowledge to create action, and a focus on learning from evaluating and adapting the approach in the field.

RevDate: 2021-01-04

Harper SL, Cunsolo A, Babujee A, et al (2021)

Climate change and health in North America: literature review protocol.

Systematic reviews, 10(1):3.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is a defining issue and grand challenge for the health sector in North America. Synthesizing evidence on climate change impacts, climate-health adaptation, and climate-health mitigation is crucial for health practitioners and decision-makers to effectively understand, prepare for, and respond to climate change impacts on human health. This protocol paper outlines our process to systematically conduct a literature review to investigate the climate-health evidence base in North America.

METHODS: A search string will be used to search CINAHL®, Web of Science™, Scopus®, Embase® via Ovid, and MEDLINE® via Ovid aggregator databases. Articles will be screened using inclusion/exclusion criteria by two independent reviewers. First, the inclusion/exclusion criteria will be applied to article titles and abstracts, and then to the full articles. Included articles will be analyzed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

DISCUSSION: This protocol describes review methods that will be used to systematically and transparently create a database of articles published in academic journals that examine climate-health in North America.

RevDate: 2021-01-03

Clayton S (2021)

Climate Change and Mental Health.

Current environmental health reports [Epub ahead of print].

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This essay reviews evidence for the current and potential effects of climate change on mental health.

RECENT FINDINGS: A growing body of research demonstrates not only that the extreme weather events associated with a changing climate can impair mental health, in particular leading to increases in depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, but also that more gradual changes in climatic conditions, such as rising temperatures and reduced air quality, are also harmful to mental health. In addition, there is increasing evidence that a significant proportion of people might be experiencing a harmful level of anxiety associated with their perception of climate change. Mental health impacts of climate change have the potential to affect a significant proportion of the population. More research is needed to document the extent of these impacts as well as the best options for mitigating and treating them.

RevDate: 2021-01-03

Islam Bhuiyan MS, Rahman A, Kim GW, et al (2020)

Eco-friendly yield-scaled global warming potential assists to determine the right rate of nitrogen in rice system: A systematic literature review.

Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987), 271:116386 pii:S0269-7491(20)37075-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Rice paddies are one of the largest greenhouse gases (GHGs) facilitators that are predominantly regulated by nitrogen (N) fertilization. Optimization of N uses based on the yield has been tried a long since, however, the improvement of the state-of-the-art technologies and the stiffness of global warming need to readjust N rate. Albeit, few individual studies started to, herein attempted as a systematic review to generalize the optimal N rate that minimizes global warming potential (GWP) concurrently provides sufficient yield in the rice system. To satisfy mounted food demand with inadequate land & less environmental impact, GHGs emissions are increasingly evaluated as yield-scaled basis. This systematic review (20 published studies consisting of 21 study sites and 190 observations) aimed to test the hypothesis that the lowest yield-scaled GWP would provide the minimum GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice system at near optimal yields. Results revealed that there was a strong polynomial quadratic relationship between CH4 emissions and N rate and strong positive correlation between N2O emissions and N rate. Compared to control the low N dose emitted less (23%) CH4 whereas high N dose emitted higher (63%) CH4 emission. The highest N2O emission observed at moderated N level. In total GWP, about 96% and 4%, GHG was emitted as CH4 and N2O, respectively. The mean GWP of CH4 and N2O emissions from rice was 5758 kg CO2 eq ha-1. The least yield-scaled GWP (0.7565 (kg CO2 eq. ha-1)) was recorded at 190 kg N ha-1 that provided the near utmost yield. This dose could be a suitable dose in midseason drainage managed rice systems especially in tropical and subtropical climatic conditions. This yield-scaled GWP supports the concept of win-win for food security and environmental aspects through balancing between viable rice productivity and maintaining convincing greenhouse gases.

RevDate: 2021-01-01

Zhang Y, Wu T, Arkema KK, et al (2020)

Coastal vulnerability to climate change in China's Bohai Economic Rim.

Environment international, 147:106359 pii:S0160-4120(20)32313-8 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and human activities exert a wide range of stressors on urban coastal areas. Synthetical assessment of coastal vulnerability is crucial for effective interventions and long-term planning. However, there have been few studies based on integrative analyses of ecological and physical characteristics and socioeconomic conditions in urban coastal areas. This study developed a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability from three dimensions - biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and applied it to the coast of Bohai Economic Rim, an extensive and important development zone in China. A composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed for every 1 km2 segment of the total 5627 km coastline and the areas that most prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution patterns of the CVIs in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The CVIs show a spatial heterogeneity, with higher values concentrated along the southwestern and northeastern coasts and lower values concentrated along the southern coasts. Currently, 20% of the coastlines with approximately 350,000 people are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. With sea-level rises under the future scenarios of the year 2100, more coastlines will be highly vulnerable, and the amount of highly-threatened population was estimated to increase by 13-24%. Among the coastal cities, Dongying was categorized as having the highest vulnerability, mainly due to poor transportation and medical services and low GDP per capita, which contribute to low adaptive capacity. Our results can benefit decision-makers by highlighting prioritized areas and identifying the most important determinants of priority, facilitating location-specific interventions for climate-change adaptation and sustainable coastal management.

RevDate: 2021-01-01

Hsiao SC, Chiang WS, Jang JH, et al (2020)

Flood risk influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas.

The Science of the total environment, 764:144439 pii:S0048-9697(20)37970-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Under climate change, compound flooding has resulted in severe disasters in coastal areas around the world. In this study, an integrated framework is proposed to determine the range of compound flood risk without the requirement of joint probability analysis between storm surge and rainfall. In the framework, the flood risks are analyzed under four extreme scenarios with/without the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall in the past and the future. From the end of the 20th century to the middle of the 21st century, the worst scenario shows that the flood area significantly increases by 92% for the low-lying coastal areas in southwest Taiwan under the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall if they are fully correlated. In the most optimistic scenario, the flood area slightly increases by 15% without compound effect (only storm surge is considered). To coastal flooding, the synchronization of storm surge and rainfall contributes much more than the climate-induced amplification of individual factors. When storm surge and rainfall happen at the same time, the extent and duration of flooding increase simultaneously under the influence of pluvial and surge-induced flooding. Risk analysis shows an obvious increase of risk level for villages originally at low risks, which require integrated countermeasures against the consequence brought by compound flooding in the future. The framework can be applied in other low-lying coastal areas to quantify the potential impacts on human and environment caused by compound flooding under climate change.

RevDate: 2020-12-31

Coen S, Meredith J, Woods R, et al (2020)

Talk like an expert: The construction of expertise in news comments concerning climate change.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

This article explores how readers of UK newspapers construct expertise around climate change. It draws on 300 online readers' comments on news items in The Guardian, Daily Mail and The Telegraph, concerning the release of the International Panel on Climate Change report calling for immediate action on climate change. Comments were analysed using discursive psychology. We identified a series of discursive strategies that commenters adopted to present themselves as experts in their commentary. The (mostly indirect) use of category entitlements (implicitly claiming themselves as expert) and the presentation of one's argument as factual (based on direct or indirect technical knowledge or common sense) emerged as common ways in which readers made claims to expertise, both among the supporters and among the sceptics of climate change science. Our findings indicate that expertise is a fluid concept, constructed in diverse ways, with important implications for public engagement with climate change science.

RevDate: 2020-12-31

Odonkor ST, AM Sallar (2020)

An Assessment of Public Knowledge and Potential Health Impacts of Global Warming in Ghana.

BioMed research international, 2020:7804692.

Global warming is a serious threat to human existence. The relatively higher level of global warming in recent times poses higher health risks to humans, both directly and indirectly. The aim of the study was to investigate public knowledge of global warming and its effects on human health. A nationally representative survey of Ghanaian adults (N = 1130) was conducted from November 1, 2018 to February 28, 2019. Results show that 84.4% of the respondents understood the meaning of global warming. Respondents' perceived causes of global warming include natural processes, deforestation, act of the gods, burning of fossil fuel, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from vehicles and industries. The majority of the respondents (83.4%) indicated that global warming has an impact on human health, while 8.5% indicated that it does not. Majority (78.6%) of the respondents are willing to support efforts to reduce the intensity of global warming. Television (19.1%) and social media (18.6%) were the leading preferred methods for receipt of global warming information. These findings provide useful insights for policy directions. The Government of Ghana and other stakeholders in health should develop a communication strategy to increase and sustain publicity and education of the citizenry on global warming.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Anonymous (2020)

Correction for Vandvik et al., Biotic rescaling reveals importance of species interactions for variation in biodiversity responses to climate change.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(52):33720.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Zinyemba C, Archer E, HA Rother (2020)

Climate Change, Pesticides and Health: Considering the Risks and Opportunities of Adaptation for Zimbabwean Smallholder Cotton Growers.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(1): pii:ijerph18010121.

There is potential for increased pesticide-related adverse health outcomes in the agricultural sector linked to adaptive increases in pesticide use necessitated, in part, by climate change-related increases in pest populations. To understand the role of adaptation practices in pesticide use and health risks, this study assessed Zimbabwean smallholder cotton farmers' adaptive responses linked to their climate change perceptions. In depth interviews were conducted with 50 farmers who had been growing cotton for at least 30 years. The study identified farmers' adaptation practices that increased their pesticide use, as well as those that presented opportunities for reducing pesticide use through non-pesticide-dependent adaptation pathways. The findings show that due to perceived climate change impacts, such as a shorter growing season, farmers were adopting a range of adaptive practices. These included changes in pest management practices, such as increasing pesticide spraying frequencies due to keeping ratoon crops, which were increasing farmers' overall pesticide use. Such incremental adaptive practices are potentially maladaptive, as they may increase farmers' pesticide-related health risks. Other practices, however, such as reducing cotton acreage and diversifying crops, resulting in transformational adaptation, suggest the existence of opportunities for decreasing overall pesticide use or totally eliminating pesticides from the farming system.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Li Y, Wang W, Wang Y, et al (2020)

A Review of Studies Involving the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Consumption for Building Heating and Cooling.

International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(1): pii:ijerph18010040.

The world is faced with significant climate change, rapid urbanization, massive energy consumption, and tremendous pressure to reduce greenhouse gases. Building heating and cooling is one primary source of energy consumption and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. First, this review presents previous studies that estimate the specific amount of climate change impact on building heating and cooling energy consumption, using the statistical method, physical model method, comprehensive assessment model method, and the combination method of statistical and physical model methods. Then, because the heating and cooling degree days indices can simply and reliably indicate the effects of climate on building heating and cooling energy consumption, previous studies were reviewed from the aspects of heating and cooling degree days indices, regional spatial-temporal variations in degree days and related indices, influencing factors of the spatial distributions of degree days, and the impacts of urbanization on degree days. Finally, several potential key issues or research directions were presented according to the research gaps or fields that need to be studied further in the future, such as developing methods to simply and accurately estimate the specified amounts of climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption; using more effective methods to analyze the daytime, nighttime, and all-day spatial-temporal changes in different seasons in the past and future under various environment contexts by considering not only the air temperature but also the relative humidity, solar radiation, population, etc., and further exploring the corresponding more kinds of driving forces, including the various remotely sensed indices, albedo, nighttime light intensity, etc.; estimating the daytime, nighttime, and all-day impacts of urbanization on heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and their sum (HDDs + CDDs) for vast cities in different environmental contexts at the station site, city, regional and global scales; producing and sharing of the related datasets; and analyzing the subsequent effects induced by climate change on the energy consumption for building heating and cooling, etc.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Trigo C, Castelló ML, Ortolá MD, et al (2020)

Moringa oleifera: An Unknown Crop in Developed Countries with Great Potential for Industry and Adapted to Climate Change.

Foods (Basel, Switzerland), 10(1): pii:foods10010031.

Moringa oleifera is originally a tropical crop with a fast development, little known in developed countries but cultivated since ancient times. It can adapt to regions affected by climate change, such as the Mediterranean basin, since it is a crop with a great resistance to high temperatures. In this study an in-depth bibliographical review was carried out by consulting different databases (Science Direct, FSTA, Scielo, Riunet, and Google Scholar) in order to find published scientific studies on the characteristics of this crop and its agronomic requirements. According to the information found, all parts of the Moringa oleifera, namely the leaves, pods, seeds, roots and flowers, can be used in different industrial sectors such as pharmaceutical, cosmetic, human food, animal feed, and water treatment since they have a nutritional profile rich in high biological value proteins, vitamins A and C, antioxidants, omega-3 fatty acids and minerals: calcium, iron, potassium, and phosphorous.

RevDate: 2020-12-29

Parker L, Pathak T, S Ostoja (2020)

Climate change reduces frost exposure for high-value California orchard crops.

The Science of the total environment, 762:143971 pii:S0048-9697(20)37502-1 [Epub ahead of print].

Frost exposure is a particular challenge for cultivating perennial crops, whose adaptive capacity to weather and climate impacts is limited. Irrigation is a common means of mitigating damage, but draws on limited water resources, is costly, and energy intensive. Here we examined the projected impact of climate change on the incidence of frost temperatures during the coldest winters, defined by the 98th percentile of cool season (November-April) frost hours, under both early- and mid-21st century time periods, as compared to contemporary conditions, across a range of threshold temperatures. We focused on three high-value perennial orchard crops - almonds, avocados, and oranges - to assess the effects of climate change on the incidence of temperatures below crop-specific threshold temperatures and for crop-specific critical development phases, and what these temporal changes in frost exposure may mean for the water and energy requirements for mitigating damages. Across time periods and temperature thresholds, frost exposure declines in California's agricultural regions, with an average of reduction in frost exposure of 63% by the mid-21st century. The majority of almond and orange acreage saw 50-75% reductions in frost exposure by mid-century, while avocado acreage experienced >75% fewer frost hours. This yielded attendant reductions in water use and energy costs, and growers in the highest acreage counties may save more than 50,000 acre feet of water and $4.2 million in electricity costs for water pumping per year, collectively. Although climate change is projected to increase growing season crop water demands, pest pressures, and have an overall net-negative impact on agriculture, the potential reduction in frost exposure and the accompanying water and energy costs to mitigate frost damages may allow growers to reprioritize some of their long-term decisions around farm management.

RevDate: 2021-01-01

Nicole W (2020)

Toward Better Estimates of the Cost of Climate Change Mitigation: Guidelines for Studying Potential Health Benefits.

Environmental health perspectives, 128(12):124003.

RevDate: 2020-12-29
CmpDate: 2020-12-29

Omer A, Elagib NA, Zhuguo M, et al (2020)

Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities.

The Science of the total environment, 749:141446.

Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, water scarcity is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). This study integrates scenarios of climate change and human activities under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a watershed-scale hydrological model, and uses the Water Use-to-Availability Ratio (WUAR) to study future water scarcity over six sub-catchments in the YRB. It further investigates the relationship between the future water scarcity and hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers. The results suggest that the average WUAR under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will likely exceed the water scarcity threshold (WUAR >20%) and will reach up to 39.9 and 44.7%, respectively. The average WUAR for the upstream and downstream sub-catchments will likely range from 23.8 to 51.6% under RCP4.5 and from 25.5% to 73.8% under RCP8.5, indicating moderate to severe and moderate to extreme water scarcity, respectively. Future WUAR correlates negatively (r-value = -0.85) with the streamflow drought index (SDI) in the upstream sub-catchments, i.e., hydrological drought will likely intensify water scarcity. Conversely, WUAR and SDI would be positively correlated (r-value = +0.70) in the downstream sub-catchments, i.e., water scarcity will become severer despite decreasing severity of hydrological drought. Under climate change, water scarcity in these sub-catchments will exhibit high dependency (Kendall τ correlation coefficient = 0.84) on water-use patterns than on water availability. The regression analysis indicates that the WUAR will increase significantly (p < 0.05) with projected woodland, cropland, and buildup areas under RCP4.5. This relationship will become even more significant (p < 0.01) under RCP8.5. This study provides insights into the potential drivers of future water scarcity in the YRB, which is likely to confront water supply crises. The study should help policymaking towards attaining sustainable water management in the basin.

RevDate: 2021-01-01

Yuen KY, Fraser NS, Henning J, et al (2021)

Hendra virus: Epidemiology dynamics in relation to climate change, diagnostic tests and control measures.

One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 12:100207.

Hendra virus (HeV) continues to pose a serious public health concern as spillover events occur sporadically. Terminally ill horses can exhibit a range of clinical signs including frothy nasal discharge, ataxia or forebrain signs. Early signs, if detected, can include depression, inappetence, colic or mild respiratory signs. All unvaccinated ill horses in areas where flying foxes exist, may potentially be infected with HeV, posing a significant risk to the veterinary community. Equivac® HeV vaccine has been fully registered in Australia since 2015 (and under an Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority special permit since 2012) for immunization of horses against HeV and is the most effective and direct solution to prevent disease transmission to horses and protect humans. No HeV vaccinated horse has tested positive for HeV infection. There is no registered vaccine to prevent, or therapeutics to treat, HeV infection in humans. Previous equine HeV outbreaks tended to cluster in winter overlapping with the foaling season (August to December), when veterinarians and horse owners have frequent close contact with horses and their bodily fluids, increasing the chance of zoonotic disease transmission. The most southerly case was detected in 2019 in the Upper Hunter region in New South Wales, which is Australia's Thoroughbred horse breeding capital. Future spillover events are predicted to move further south and inland in Queensland and New South Wales, aligning with the moving distribution of the main reservoir hosts. Here we (1) review HeV epidemiology and climate change predicted infection dynamics, (2) present a biosecurity protocol for veterinary clinics and hospitals to adopt, and (3) describe diagnostic tests currently available and those under development. Major knowledge and research gaps have been identified, including evaluation of vaccine efficacy in foals to assess current vaccination protocol recommendations.

RevDate: 2020-12-29

Jones MD, Abu-Jaber N, AlShdaifat A, et al (2019)

20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia.

WIREs. Water, 6(2):e1330.

The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human-climate-environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of "scale" and "seasonality" as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under:Human Water > Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.

RevDate: 2020-12-29

Tomás D, Coelho LP, Rodrigues JC, et al (2020)

Assessment of Four Portuguese Wheat Landrace Diversity to Cope With Global Warming.

Frontiers in plant science, 11:594977.

Wheat is a dietary staple consumed worldwide strongly responsible for proteins and carbohydrate population intake. However, wheat production and quality will scarcely fulfill forward demands, which are compounded by high-temperature (HT) events as heatwaves, increasingly common in Portugal. Thus, landraces assume crucial importance as potential reservoirs of useful traits for wheat breeding and may be pre-adapted to extreme environmental conditions. This work evaluates four Portuguese landrace yield and grain composition through attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy, particularly protein content, and their responses to HT treatment mimicking a heatwave. Landraces showed distinct yield traits, especially plant height and first spike grain number, and a similar pattern in FTIR spectra, although revealing differences in grain components' proportions. Comparison between spectra band intensity indicates that Ardito has the highest protein-related peaks, contrary to Magueija, which appears to be the landrace with higher lipid content. In plants submitted to 1 week of HT treatment 10 days after anthesis, the first spike grain size and weight were markedly reduced in all landraces. Additionally, it was observed that a general increase in grain protein content in the four landraces, being the increment observed in Ardito and Grécia, is statistically significant. The comparative assessment of control and HT average FTIR spectra denoted also the occurrence of alterations in grain polysaccharide composition. An integrated assessment of the evaluations performed revealed that Ardito and Magueija landraces presented diverse yield-related characteristics and distinct responses to cope with HT. In fact, the former landrace revealed considerable grain yield diminution along with an increase in grain protein proportion after HT, while the latter showed a significant increase in spikes and grain number, with grain quality detriment. These results reinforce the relevance of scrutinizing old genotype diversity seeking for useful characteristics, particularly considering HT impact on grain production and quality.

RevDate: 2020-12-28

Calliari E, Serdeczny O, L Vanhala (2020)

Making sense of the politics in the climate change loss & damage debate.

Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions, 64:102133.

The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (L&D) associated with Climate Change Impacts (WIM) was established in 2013 to advance i) knowledge generation; ii) coordination and iii) support to address losses and damages under the UNFCCC. So far, the work undertaken by the WIM Executive Committee (ExCom) has focused on enhancing understanding and awareness of the issue and promoting collaboration with relevant stakeholders. Delivering on the WIM's third function on action and support has lagged behind, and 'the political' nature of L&D has often been blamed for this. Key terrains of contention among Parties have included the positioning of L&D governance vis-à-vis the adaptation space and struggles around state liability and compensation. As a way to facilitate discussion on implementation options, recent research has suggested de-politicising aspects of the L&D debate; yet we have very little insight into how the politics are understood within the realm of international L&D governance. This paper brings an analysis of 'the political' into the picture by identifying the complex and underlying issues that fuel contention within UNFCCC L&D negotiations. It gives centre stage to the way different framings of norms and material interests affect the debate, and challenges the tendency in current L&D literature to overlook the socio-historical and political underpinnings of this area of policy-making. We employ a qualitative multi-methods research design which draws on content analysis of 138 official Parties' submissions and statements, 14 elite interviews with key current and former L&D negotiators and is built on a foundation of 3 years of participant observation at COPs and WIM meetings. We approach this data with a political ethnographic sensibility that seeks to explore how meanings are constructed within and across different sources of data. Our empirical results show that, rather than being a monolithic dispute, L&D catalyses different yet intertwined unresolved discussions. We identify five areas of contention, including continued disputes around compensation; conflicts on the legitimacy of L&D as a third pillar of climate action; tensions between the technical and political dimension of the debate; debates over accountability for losses and damages incurred; and the connection of L&D with other unresolved issues under the Convention.

RevDate: 2020-12-28

Lu Y, Xu P, Li Q, et al (2020)

Planning priority conservation areas for biodiversity under climate change in topographically complex areas: A case study in Sichuan province, China.

PloS one, 15(12):e0243425 pii:PONE-D-20-36181.

Identifying priority conservation areas plays a significant role in conserving biodiversity under climate change, but uncertainties create challenges for conservation planning. To reduce uncertainties in the conservation planning framework, we developed an adaptation index to assess the effect of topographic complexity on species adaptation to climate change, which was incorporated into the conservation framework as conservation costs. Meanwhile, the species distributions were predicted by the Maxent model, and the priority conservation areas were optimized during different periods in Sichuan province by the Marxan model. Our results showed that the effect of topographic complexity was critical for species adaptation, but the adaptation index decreased with the temperature increase. Based on the conservation targets and costs, the distributions of priority conservation areas were mainly concentrated in mountainous areas around the Sichuan Basin where may be robust to the adaptation to climate change. In the future, the distributions of priority conservation areas had no evident changes, accounting for about 26% and 28% of the study areas. Moreover, most species habitats could be conserved in terms of conservation targets in these priority conservation areas. Therefore, our approach could achieve biodiversity conservation goals and be highly practical. More importantly, quantifying the effect of topography also is critical for options for planning conservation areas in response to climate change.

RevDate: 2020-12-28

Belovsky GE, JB Slade (2020)

Climate change and primary production: Forty years in a bunchgrass prairie.

PloS one, 15(12):e0243496 pii:PONE-D-20-24035.

Over the past 109 years, a Montana intermountain bunchgrass prairie annually became warmer (0.7°C) and drier (27%). The temperature and precipitation trends continued since 1978, as we studied nitrogen availability, annual aboveground primary production (ANPP), plant phenology and species composition. Given the annual increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation, ANPP might be expected to decline; however, it increased by 110%, as the period of greatest production (late-May-June) became wetter and cooler, counter to the annual pattern, and this was strongest at lower elevations. Grass production increased by 251%, while dicot production declined by 65%, which increased grass relative abundance by 54%. Summer temperatures increased 12.5% which increased plant senescence by 119% and decreased fall plant regrowth by 68%. More intense summer senescence changed plant species composition in favor of more drought tolerant species. The greater ANPP and summer senescence may increase susceptibility for fire, but fire tolerance of the plant species composition did not change. Invasive plant species increased 108% over the study with annual grasses accounting for >50% of this increase, which further increased summer plant senescence. Therefore, seasonal climate changes at a smaller geographical scale (local), rather than average annual climate changes over a larger geographical scale (regional), may better reflect plant community responses, and this makes ecological forecasting of climate change more difficult.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Liberman R, Fine M, Y Benayahu (2020)

Simulated climate change scenarios impact the reproduction and early life stages of a soft coral.

Marine environmental research, 163:105215 pii:S0141-1136(20)30982-X [Epub ahead of print].

Coral reefs are threatened worldwide by global climate change, manifested in anthropogenic ocean warming and acidification. Despite the importance of coral sexual reproduction for the continuity of coral reefs, our understanding of the extent of the impact of climate change on coral sexual reproduction, particularly on coral reproductive phenology and early life stages, is limited. Here, we experimentally examined the effects of predicted end-of-the-century seawater conditions on the sexual reproduction and photosynthetic capacity of a Red-Sea zooxanthellate octocoral, Rhytisma fulvum. Sexually mature colonies were exposed to ambient temperature and pH conditions and to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) conditions (4.5 and 8.5), five weeks prior to their expected surface-brooding event. The reproductive phenology of the colonies under the simulated seawater conditions was compared to that on the natural reef. In addition, subsequent planulae development and their metamorphosis into primary polyps under the same RCP conditions as their parent colonies were monitored in a running seawater system. The results reveal that both RCP conditions led to a change in the timing of onset of the surface-brooding event and its synchronicity. In contrast, the surface-brooding event under ambient conditions co-occurred with that of the in-situ reef colonies and maintained its synchrony. Similarly, planula survival and polyp metamorphosis rate were significantly reduced under both RCP conditions compared to propagules reared under ambient conditions. In addition, the photosynthetic capacity of the parent colonies under both RCPs showed a reduction relative to that under the ambient conditions in the experiment, suggesting a reduction in carbon fixation during the late stages of gametogenesis. While our findings indicate that octocoral reproductive phenology is affected by environmental changes, further work is required in order to elucidate the long-term implications for the R. fulvum population in the northern Red Sea.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Pergent-Martini C, Pergent G, Monnier B, et al (2020)

Contribution of Posidonia oceanica meadows in the context of climate change mitigation in the Mediterranean Sea.

Marine environmental research, 165:105236 pii:S0141-1136(20)31003-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Coastal marine vegetation has been recently highlighted for its highly efficient carbon storage capacity. Among the sixty-four species of seagrass, Posidonia oceanica, a Mediterranean endemic species, appears to be the most effective in carbon fixation and storage. Based on new data from the study of one of the largest P. oceanica meadows in the Mediterranean Sea (100 km of coastline, 20 425 ha), and a synthesis of available data from the whole of the Mediterranean basin, the aim of this work is to evaluate the amount of carbon fixed each year by P. oceanica and sequestered in the matte, in relation with the mitigation of the impact of climate change (carbon sink). The mean total carbon fixation (blades, sheaths and rhizomes) per year varies between 33.5 and 426.6 g C.m-2 and the mean carbon sequestration (long-term sink in the matte), corresponding to the sheath and rhizome tissues, varies between 7.7 and 84.4 g C.m-2, with a clear decreasing trend according to depth because of the meadow density decrease. The synthesis of a hundred measurements made throughout the Mediterranean Sea and at depths between 0.5 and 32.0 m provides a basis for estimating the average annual carbon fixation and sequestration rate throughout the Mediterranean basin. The fixation of the blades is estimated at 1 024 t C.ha-1.yr-1, that of the sheaths at 220 t C ha-1.yr-1 and that of the rhizomes at 58 t C ha-1.yr-1; i.e. a total fixation rate of 1 302 t C ha-1.yr-1 and sequestration rate (dead sheaths and rhizomes) of 278 t C ha-1.yr-1. This annual carbon fixation represents only 0.61% on average of CO2 emissions/releases for all Mediterranean countries but in the large Mediterranean islands this fixation is on average 3.1% and can reach almost 14.4% for Corsica. Moreover, the major advantage of the P. oceanica meadow lies in its capacity to store carbon from annual carbon sequestration for centuries to millennia and can be compared to several terrestrial ecosystems considered to be efficient in carbon storage (peatlands).

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Hernández Ruiz L, Ekumah B, Asiedu DA, et al (2020)

Climate change and oil pollution: A dangerous cocktail for tropical zooplankton.

Aquatic toxicology (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 231:105718 pii:S0166-445X(20)30467-7 [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change and oil pollution pose a major threat to tropical marine ecosystems and to the coastal communities relying on their resources. The Gulf of Guinea is severely affected by multiple human induced stressors, but the potential impacts of these on marine productivity remain unknown. We investigated the combined effects of heatwaves (climate stressor) and the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pyrene (proxy for oil) on the copepod Centropages velificatus. We quantified survival, reproduction and fecal pellet production of females exposed to concentrations of 0, 10, 100 and 100+ nM (saturated) pyrene under simulated heatwaves of different thermal intensity (+3 °C and +5 °C above control treatment temperature). Thermal stress due to both moderate and intensive heatwaves resulted in reduced survival and egg production. The negative effects of pyrene were only measurable at the high pyrene concentrations. However, thermal stress increased the sensitivity of C. velificatus to pyrene, indicating a synergistic interaction between the two stressors. We document that the interaction of multiple stressors can result in cumulative impacts that are stronger than expected based on single stressor studies. Further research is urgently needed to evaluate the combined impact of climatic and anthropogenic stressors on the productivity of coastal ecosystems, particularly in the tropical areas.

RevDate: 2020-12-28

Schenker U, Chardot J, Missoum K, et al (2021)

Short communication on the role of cellulosic fiber-based packaging in reduction of climate change impacts.

Carbohydrate polymers, 254:117248.

This short communication describes the climate change impacts of using cellulose, and more precisely cellulosic fiber-based materials, in food packaging, representing current and emerging industrial state of the art technology, without specific reference to current scientific advances. First, the different types of cellulosic fiber-based packaging materials, which can be used to replace fossil-based packaging materials, are presented for flexible and rigid applications. The focus is on technological solutions with packaging properties that enable the protection of commonly sold food products. The manufacturing processes associated with these cellulosic fiber-based materials is described and the environmental impact assessment of 4 selected case studies presented: stand-up pouches, flexible flow wraps, frozen or chilled food trays, and molded pulp lids. A simplified eco-design Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was then performed to compare each solution with its fossil-based counterpart. Differences and similarities between the various cellulosic solutions have been identified. Furthermore, the assessment confirms that cellulosic fiber-based materials have reduced environmental impacts as compared to fossil-based counterparts, if a similar packaging weight is obtained. Indeed, all impacts of plastics are between 3 and 5 kg CO2eq/kg, while all impacts of cellulosic fiber-based materials are below 1.5 kg CO2eq/kg.

RevDate: 2020-12-28

Talley NJ, Stanley F, Lucas T, et al (2020)

Health and climate change MJA-Lancet Countdown report: Australia gets another failing grade in 2020 but shows signs of progress.

Lancet (London, England) pii:S0140-6736(20)32632-5 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-12-28

Khan MMH, Havukainen J, M Horttanainen (2020)

Impact of utilizing solid recovered fuel on the global warming potential of cement production and waste management system: A life cycle assessment approach.

Waste management & research : the journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA [Epub ahead of print].

Cement production is responsible for a significant share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A potential option to reduce the cement production emissions is to use alternative fuels which can have also an impact on emissions from the waste management sector. This work investigates the change in global warming potential (GWP) of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) production and affected waste management systems when conventional fuels are partially replaced by solid recovered fuel (SRF) made from commercial and industrial waste (C&IW). A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted with a functional unit of 1 metric tonne of OPC production and treatment of 194 kg of C&IW. Data from an existing cement plant have been used, where the share of SRF from total fuel energy demand increased from 0% to 53% between 2007 and 2016. Four scenarios were established with varying waste treatment methods and SRF share in the thermal energy mix of cement production. It was found that GHG emissions decreased by 20% from 1036 kg carbon dioxide (CO2), eq. (functional unit)-1 in Scenario 1 to 832 kg CO2, eq. (functional unit)-1 in Scenario 3. Furthermore, it is possible to reach a reduction of 30% to 725 kg CO2, eq. (functional unit)-1 in Scenario by increasing the share of SRF to 80%. In conclusion, significant GHG emissions reduction can be achieved by utilizing SRF in cement production. Especially in the middle-income and low-income countries where waste is dumped to the open landfills, emissions could be reduced without huge investments to waste incineration plants.

RevDate: 2020-12-23

Lewandowsky S (2020)

Climate Change, Disinformation, and How to Combat It.

Annual review of public health [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change presents a challenge at multiple levels: It challenges our cognitive abilities because the effect of the accumulation of emissions is difficult to understand. Climate change also challenges many people's worldview because any climate mitigation regime will have economic and political implications that are incompatible with libertarian ideals of unregulated free markets. These political implications have created an environment of rhetorical adversity in which disinformation abounds, thus compounding the challenges for climate communicators. The existing literature on how to communicate climate change and dispel misinformation converges on several conclusions: First, providing information about climate change, in particular explanations of why it occurs, can enhance people's acceptance of science. Second, highlighting the scientific consensus can be an effective means to counter misinformation and raise public acceptance. Third, culturally aligned messages and messengers are more likely to be successful. Finally, climate misinformation is best defanged, through a process known as inoculation, before it is encountered, although debunking techniques can also be successful. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 42 is April 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

RevDate: 2020-12-23

Kay N, S Gaymard (2020)

Climate change in the Cameroonian press: An analysis of its representations.

Public understanding of science (Bristol, England) [Epub ahead of print].

Climate change is a global environmental issue and its outcome will affect societies around the world. In recent years, we have seen a growing literature on media coverage of climate change, but, to date, no study has assessed the situation in Cameroon, although it is considered to be one of the world's most affected and vulnerable regions. This study attempted to address this deficit by analysing how climate change is represented in the Cameroonian media. A similarity analysis was performed on three newspapers published in 2013-2016. Results showed that climate coverage focused on politics and international involvement. It seems disconnected from local realities, potentially opening up a spatial and social psychological distance. The relationship between the representation of climate change and that of poverty is an area for further exploration.

RevDate: 2020-12-31

Barik S (2020)

Evolution of Protein Structure and Stability in Global Warming.

International journal of molecular sciences, 21(24):.

This review focuses on the molecular signatures of protein structures in relation to evolution and survival in global warming. It is based on the premise that the power of evolutionary selection may lead to thermotolerant organisms that will repopulate the planet and continue life in general, but perhaps with different kinds of flora and fauna. Our focus is on molecular mechanisms, whereby known examples of thermoresistance and their physicochemical characteristics were noted. A comparison of interactions of diverse residues in proteins from thermophilic and mesophilic organisms, as well as reverse genetic studies, revealed a set of imprecise molecular signatures that pointed to major roles of hydrophobicity, solvent accessibility, disulfide bonds, hydrogen bonds, ionic and π-electron interactions, and an overall condensed packing of the higher-order structure, especially in the hydrophobic regions. Regardless of mutations, specialized protein chaperones may play a cardinal role. In evolutionary terms, thermoresistance to global warming will likely occur in stepwise mutational changes, conforming to the molecular signatures, such that each "intermediate" fits a temporary niche through punctuated equilibrium, while maintaining protein functionality. Finally, the population response of different species to global warming may vary substantially, and, as such, some may evolve while others will undergo catastrophic mass extinction.

RevDate: 2020-12-22
CmpDate: 2020-12-22

Szalińska E, Zemełka G, Kryłów M, et al (2021)

Climate change impacts on contaminant loads delivered with sediment yields from different land use types in a Carpathian basin.

The Science of the total environment, 755(Pt 1):142898.

Soil runoff and sediment transport are considered as an important vector for particle-bound contaminant transfer from source to receiving waters. Under changing climate conditions and rapid basin development, identification of sediment origins is critical for planning further action to reduce erosion effects, and further pollution to surface waters. The goal of this study was to distinguish sediment sources in a Carpathian basin (Wolnica River, southern Poland) and to perform source-oriented contaminant load estimations. Sediment yields (SYLD) and land use specific sediment yields (LUSY) were modeled with the use of the Macromodel DNS/SWAT (Discharge-Nutrients-Sea/Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Sorting of sediment sources was performed by the fingerprinting method using variability of the geochemical composition of soils (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, Fe, Hg, total N and P, Σ16 PAHs, and 137Cs) of four land use (LU) types: arable lands (A), grasslands (G), residential areas (R), and forests (F). Statistical analysis revealed six metals (Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, Ni, and Hg) as fingerprint properties providing the best source discrimination in this basin. The contribution of particular land use origin assessed with the use of the mixing model varied in the range of 20-30%. Finally, estimation of land use specific contaminant loads in suspended sediments was performed as a result of a modeling and sediment fingerprinting combination. The final estimates revealed yearly LUSY values varying between 716 t/y for A, 12 t/y for F, and metal loads from 31 kg/y for Zn to values below 100 g/y for Cd and Hg. Long-term predictions (2046-2055) of the metal loads revealed an increase by 75% under the combined RCP 8.5 climate change and land use scenarios. These findings are of great value for land management in the Carpathian basins, especially with regards to the predicted increase of forest cover which significantly alters contaminant signals conveyed through the system.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Fischer H, N Said (2020)

Importance of domain-specific metacognition for explaining beliefs about politicized science: The case of climate change.

Cognition, 208:104545 pii:S0010-0277(20)30364-4 [Epub ahead of print].

One of the oldest debates in psychological research into politicized science such as nanotechnology, vaccination, or climate change centers around the role of knowledge. Does increased knowledge of the science affect beliefs about it? While research has traditionally focused on the role of object-level knowledge, here we highlight the importance of meta-knowledge: How much people believe they know about the science. Specifically, we demonstrate the importance of meta-knowledge (measured as confidence in knowledge) for explaining beliefs about science with one of the most contested examples: climate change. For a national Germany sample (N = 509), frequentist and Bayesian analyses demonstrated that climate change meta-knowledge was predictive of climate change beliefs, above and beyond object-level climate change knowledge. These results held for both the belief that climate change is risky, and the belief that climate change is anthropogenic, and when controlling for political attitude, and demographic variables. Furthermore, for a second national German sample (N = 588), confidence in climate change knowledge was a stronger predictor of climate change beliefs compared to confidence in other-domain (biological and physical) science knowledge, suggesting that outside of the respective domain, metacognitive confidence did not explain beliefs. These results highlight the relevance of domain-specific metacognition for explaining beliefs about the contested science of climate change. By demonstrating the relevance of metacognitive, rather than solely object-level thought, these results add to our understanding of the cognitive mechanisms involved in the formation of beliefs about politicized science.

RevDate: 2020-12-30

Li X, Zhang K, Gu P, et al (2020)

Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960-2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects.

The Science of the total environment, 760:144244 pii:S0048-9697(20)37775-5 [Epub ahead of print].

Extreme precipitation events can pose great risks to natural ecosystems and human society. Investigating past changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of such events and understanding the possible driving factors are critical for reliable projections of future changes and for informing adaptation strategies planning. Here we analyze trends in a complete list of extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) during the period of 1960-2019. Also, we examine the possible influences of global warming, ENSO, and local effects on the spatiotemporal variability of the EPIs. Our results show that average and extreme precipitation intensities, and the frequency of extreme heavy precipitation in the YRB have significantly increased, while precipitation frequency and maximum duration of wet spells have significantly decreased. A regional difference in trend occurrence and magnitude is also observed, showing the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over the Middle and Lower reaches are more likely to increase and increase faster, compared with those of the Upper reach of the YRB. Furthermore, our correlation analysis shows global warming, ENSO, and local effects all are significant driving factors that control the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation extremes over the YRB. Global warming tends to enhance the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes. The La Niña phase of ENSO often corresponds to an increase of frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in the current year, but a decrease of frequency and intensity in the coming year. Local warming mainly exerts a reducing effect on precipitation extremes, which is likely a response to the significant decrease of relative humidity in the YRB. Our findings highlight the need for a systematic approach to examine global, regional, and local drivers of trends in precipitation extremes in the YRB, and contribute to the understanding of precipitation changes in this region.

RevDate: 2020-12-21

McGinty N, Barton AD, Record NR, et al (2020)

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography.

Global change biology [Epub ahead of print].

Copepods are among the most abundant marine metazoans and form a key link between marine primary producers, higher trophic levels, and carbon sequestration pathways. Climate change is projected to change surface ocean temperature by up to 4°C in the North Atlantic with many associated changes including slowing of the overturning circulation, areas of regional freshening and increased salinity and reductions in nutrients available in the euphotic zone over the next century. These changes will lead to a restructuring of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities with cascading effects throughout the food web. Here we employ observations of copepods, projected changes in ocean climate, and species distribution models to show how climate change may affect the distribution of copepod species in the North Atlantic. On average species move northeast at a rate of 14.1 km dec-1 . Species turnover in copepod communities will range from 5-75% with the highest turnover rates concentrated in regions of pronounced temperature increase and decrease. The changes in species range vary according to copepod traits with the largest effects found to occur in the cooling, freshening area in the subpolar North Atlantic south of Greenland and in an area of significant warming along the Scotian shelf. Large diapausing copepods (>2.5mm) which are higher in lipids and a crucial food source for whales, may have an advantage in the cooling waters due to their life history strategy that facilitates their survival in the arctic environment. Carnivorous copepods show a basin wide increase in species richness and show significant habitat area increases when their distribution moves poleward while herbivores see significant habitat area losses. The trait-specific effects highlight the complex consequences of climate change for the marine food web.

RevDate: 2020-12-21

Marten R, Yangchen S, Campbell-Lendrum D, et al (2020)

Climate change: an urgent priority for health policy and systems research.

Health policy and planning pii:6042985 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-12-21

Vineis P, A Butler (2020)

Commentary: Climate change and health: the importance of experiments.

International journal of epidemiology pii:6042615 [Epub ahead of print].

RevDate: 2020-12-22

Pradel W, Gatto M, Hareau G, et al (2019)

Adoption of potato varieties and their role for climate change adaptation in India.

Climate risk management, 23:114-123.

Adoption of improved varieties is an important strategy to adapt to the negative implication associated with climate change and variability. However, incomplete data on varietal release and adoption is often the reality in many countries hindering informed decision-making on breeding and varietal dissemination strategies to effectively adapt to climate change. In taking the example of potatoes in India, we analyze the extent to which the potato sector is resilient to climate change. We do so by comparing state-level climate change projections with adoption of high resistant and tolerant potato varieties to major abiotic and biotic stresses. Release and adoption data was collected in 2016 in six expert elicitation workshops conducted with 130 experts from the potato value chain in Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. We found that from the total of 81 releases, 45 improved varieties are adopted in India and that in each state high resistant and tolerant varieties are cultivated providing some degree of varietal resilience. Early maturity has been the most important and heat tolerance is the least important trait. Comparing climate projections with adoption rates of high resistant and tolerant varieties, we found that Gujarat is relatively most resilient. In other states we found some mismatches between climate projections and adopted specific varietal traits. Our results allow policy-makers and breeders to better prioritize investments into breeding for specific traits and dissemination strategies.

RevDate: 2020-12-20

Talley NJ, Stanley FJ, Lucas T, et al (2020)

Health and climate change MJA-Lancet Countdown report: Australia gets another failing grade in 2020 but shows signs of progress.

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ESP Quick Facts

ESP Origins

In the early 1990's, Robert Robbins was a faculty member at Johns Hopkins, where he directed the informatics core of GDB — the human gene-mapping database of the international human genome project. To share papers with colleagues around the world, he set up a small paper-sharing section on his personal web page. This small project evolved into The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Support

In 1995, Robbins became the VP/IT of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, WA. Soon after arriving in Seattle, Robbins secured funding, through the ELSI component of the US Human Genome Project, to create the original ESP.ORG web site, with the formal goal of providing free, world-wide access to the literature of classical genetics.

ESP Rationale

Although the methods of molecular biology can seem almost magical to the uninitiated, the original techniques of classical genetics are readily appreciated by one and all: cross individuals that differ in some inherited trait, collect all of the progeny, score their attributes, and propose mechanisms to explain the patterns of inheritance observed.

ESP Goal

In reading the early works of classical genetics, one is drawn, almost inexorably, into ever more complex models, until molecular explanations begin to seem both necessary and natural. At that point, the tools for understanding genome research are at hand. Assisting readers reach this point was the original goal of The Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project.

ESP Usage

Usage of the site grew rapidly and has remained high. Faculty began to use the site for their assigned readings. Other on-line publishers, ranging from The New York Times to Nature referenced ESP materials in their own publications. Nobel laureates (e.g., Joshua Lederberg) regularly used the site and even wrote to suggest changes and improvements.

ESP Content

When the site began, no journals were making their early content available in digital format. As a result, ESP was obliged to digitize classic literature before it could be made available. For many important papers — such as Mendel's original paper or the first genetic map — ESP had to produce entirely new typeset versions of the works, if they were to be available in a high-quality format.

ESP Help

Early support from the DOE component of the Human Genome Project was critically important for getting the ESP project on a firm foundation. Since that funding ended (nearly 20 years ago), the project has been operated as a purely volunteer effort. Anyone wishing to assist in these efforts should send an email to Robbins.

ESP Plans

With the development of methods for adding typeset side notes to PDF files, the ESP project now plans to add annotated versions of some classical papers to its holdings. We also plan to add new reference and pedagogical material. We have already started providing regularly updated, comprehensive bibliographies to the ESP.ORG site.

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Papers in Classical Genetics

The ESP began as an effort to share a handful of key papers from the early days of classical genetics. Now the collection has grown to include hundreds of papers, in full-text format.

Digital Books

Along with papers on classical genetics, ESP offers a collection of full-text digital books, including many works by Darwin (and even a collection of poetry — Chicago Poems by Carl Sandburg).

Timelines

ESP now offers a much improved and expanded collection of timelines, designed to give the user choice over subject matter and dates.

Biographies

Biographical information about many key scientists.

Selected Bibliographies

Bibliographies on several topics of potential interest to the ESP community are now being automatically maintained and generated on the ESP site.

ESP Picks from Around the Web (updated 07 JUL 2018 )